1173:"Indeterminacy can be loosely said to apply to situations in which not all the parameters of the system and their interactions are fully known, whereas ignorance refers to situations in which it is not known what is not known." These unknowns, indeterminacy and ignorance, that exist in science are often "transformed" into uncertainty when reported to the public in order to make issues more manageable, since scientific indeterminacy and ignorance are difficult concepts for scientists to convey without losing credibility. Conversely, uncertainty is often interpreted by the public as ignorance. The transformation of indeterminacy and ignorance into uncertainty may be related to the public's misinterpretation of uncertainty as ignorance.
1194:
alarm-raising cues from special interest organizations (religious groups, environmental organizations, political factions, etc.) they are often covered in a business related sense, in an economic-development frame or a social progress frame. The nature of these frames is to downplay or eliminate uncertainty, so when economic and scientific promise are focused on early in the issue cycle, as has happened with coverage of plant biotechnology and nanotechnology in the United States, the matter in question seems more definitive and certain.
717:, the uncertainty has been quantified. Suppose it is quantified as a 90% chance of sunshine. If there is a major, costly, outdoor event planned for tomorrow then there is a risk since there is a 10% chance of rain, and rain would be undesirable. Furthermore, if this is a business event and $ 100,000 would be lost if it rains, then the risk has been quantified (a 10% chance of losing $ 100,000). These situations can be made even more realistic by quantifying light rain vs. heavy rain, the cost of delays vs. outright cancellation, etc.
1158:. Also, in the public realm, there are often many scientific voices giving input on a single topic. For example, depending on how an issue is reported in the public sphere, discrepancies between outcomes of multiple scientific studies due to methodological differences could be interpreted by the public as a lack of consensus in a situation where a consensus does in fact exist. This interpretation may have even been intentionally promoted, as scientific uncertainty may be managed to reach certain goals. For example,
681:
1281:. Uncertainty is involved in every measurement, such as measuring a distance, a temperature, etc., the degree depending upon the instrument or technique used to make the measurement. Similarly, uncertainty is propagated through calculations so that the calculated value has some degree of uncertainty depending upon the uncertainties of the measured values and the equation used in the calculation.
27:
640:
character; and there are far-reaching and crucial differences in the bearings of the phenomena depending on which of the two is really present and operating.... It will appear that a measurable uncertainty, or 'risk' proper, as we shall use the term, is so far different from an unmeasurable one that it is not in effect an uncertainty at all.
854:(NIST) Technical Note 1297, "Guidelines for Evaluating and Expressing the Uncertainty of NIST Measurement Results", and the Eurachem/Citac publication "Quantifying Uncertainty in Analytical Measurement". The uncertainty of the result of a measurement generally consists of several components. The components are regarded as
721:
premium to avoid the loss. An insurance company, for example, would compute an EOL as a minimum for any insurance coverage, then add onto that other operating costs and profit. Since many people are willing to buy insurance for many reasons, then clearly the EOL alone is not the perceived value of avoiding the risk.
821:
published in March 2020. It is distinct from
Knightian uncertainty, by whether or not it is 'resolvable'. If uncertainty arises from a lack of knowledge, and that lack of knowledge is resolvable by acquiring knowledge (such as by primary or secondary research) then it is not radical uncertainty. Only
1176:
Journalists may inflate uncertainty (making the science seem more uncertain than it really is) or downplay uncertainty (making the science seem more certain than it really is). One way that journalists inflate uncertainty is by describing new research that contradicts past research without providing
720:
Some may represent the risk in this example as the "expected opportunity loss" (EOL) or the chance of the loss multiplied by the amount of the loss (10% × $ 100,000 = $ 10,000). That is useful if the organizer of the event is "risk neutral", which most people are not. Most would be willing to pay a
1184:
Journalists may downplay uncertainty by eliminating "scientists' carefully chosen tentative wording, and by losing these caveats the information is skewed and presented as more certain and conclusive than it really is". Also, stories with a single source or without any context of previous research
800:
puts limits on how much an observer can ever know about the position and velocity of a particle. This may not just be ignorance of potentially obtainable facts but that there is no fact to be found. There is some controversy in physics as to whether such uncertainty is an irreducible property of
673:
Knight pointed out that the unfavorable outcome of known risks can be insured during the decision-making process because it has a clearly defined expected probability distribution. Unknown risks have no known expected probability distribution, which can lead to extremely risky company decisions.
617:
There is a difference between uncertainty and variability. Uncertainty is quantified by a probability distribution which depends upon knowledge about the likelihood of what the single, true value of the uncertain quantity is. Variability is quantified by a distribution of frequencies of multiple
1193:
Some media routines and organizational factors affect the overstatement of uncertainty; other media routines and organizational factors help inflate the certainty of an issue. Because the general public (in the United States) generally trusts scientists, when science stories are covered without
630:
distinguished uncertainty from risk with uncertainty being lack of knowledge which is immeasurable and impossible to calculate. Because of the absence of clearly defined statistics in most economic decisions where people face uncertainty, he believed that we cannot measure probabilities in such
1153:
Uncertainty in science, and science in general, may be interpreted differently in the public sphere than in the scientific community. This is due in part to the diversity of the public audience, and the tendency for scientists to misunderstand lay audiences and therefore not communicate ideas
1144:
of the measurement instrument. The lower the accuracy and precision of an instrument, the larger the measurement uncertainty is. Precision is often determined as the standard deviation of the repeated measures of a given value, namely using the same method described above to assess measurement
1104:
Uncertainty of a measurement can be determined by repeating a measurement to arrive at an estimate of the standard deviation of the values. Then, any single value has an uncertainty equal to the standard deviation. However, if the values are averaged, then the mean measurement value has a much
690:
There are some things that you know to be true, and others that you know to be false; yet, despite this extensive knowledge that you have, there remain many things whose truth or falsity is not known to you. We say that you are uncertain about them. You are uncertain, to varying degrees, about
639:
Uncertainty must be taken in a sense radically distinct from the familiar notion of risk, from which it has never been properly separated.... The essential fact is that 'risk' means in some cases a quantity susceptible of measurement, while at other times it is something distinctly not of this
607:
is a state of uncertainty, where some possible outcomes have an undesired effect or significant loss. Measurement of risk includes a set of measured uncertainties, where some possible outcomes are losses, and the magnitudes of those losses. This also includes loss functions over continuous
1145:
uncertainty. However, this method is correct only when the instrument is accurate. When it is inaccurate, the uncertainty is larger than the standard deviation of the repeated measures, and it appears evident that the uncertainty does not depend only on instrumental precision.
1121:, the true value lies outside of the stated range. If the width of the interval is doubled, then probably only 4.6% of the true values lie outside the doubled interval, and if the width is tripled, probably only 0.3% lie outside. These values follow from the properties of the
1116:
When the uncertainty represents the standard error of the measurement, then about 68.3% of the time, the true value of the measured quantity falls within the stated uncertainty range. For example, it is likely that for 31.7% of the atomic mass values given on the
1416:, a philosopher at Oxford University, has also discussed the concept of Moral Uncertainty. Moral Uncertainty is "uncertainty about how to act given lack of certainty in any one moral theory, as well as the study of how we ought to act given this uncertainty."
1197:
Sometimes, stockholders, owners, or advertising will pressure a media organization to promote the business aspects of a scientific issue, and therefore any uncertainty claims which may compromise the business interests are downplayed or eliminated.
1314:
In daily life, measurement uncertainty is often implicit ("He is 6 feet tall" give or take a few inches), while for any serious use an explicit statement of the measurement uncertainty is necessary. The expected measurement uncertainty of many
662:
There is a fundamental distinction between the reward for taking a known risk and that for assuming a risk whose value itself is not known. It is so fundamental, indeed, that … a known risk will not lead to any reward or special payment at
1189:
that aids, too, in the downplaying of uncertainty. Finally, and most notably for this investigation, when science is framed by journalists as a triumphant quest, uncertainty is erroneously framed as "reducible and resolvable".
758:
is a form of uncertainty where the analyst is unable to clearly differentiate between two different classes, such as 'person of average height' and 'tall person'. This form of vagueness can be modelled by some variation on
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institutions over markets. The burden of this effort must fall almost entirely on the richest people and richest parts of the world, because it is they who continue to gamble with everyone else's fate." (p.
1627:
Kabir, H. D., Khosravi, A., Hosen, M. A., & Nahavandi, S. (2018). Neural
Network-based Uncertainty Quantification: A Survey of Methodologies and Applications. IEEE Access. Vol. 6, Pages 36218 - 36234,
880:
of the components through a function relating the components to the measurement result, the combined measurement uncertainty is given as the square root of the resulting variance. The simplest form is the
691:
everything in the future; much of the past is hidden from you; and there is a lot of the present about which you do not have full information. Uncertainty is everywhere and you cannot escape from it.
713:
For example, if it is unknown whether or not it will rain tomorrow, then there is a state of uncertainty. If probabilities are applied to the possible outcomes using weather forecasts or even just a
967:
one tenth of a meter, or one hundredth. The precision is symmetric around the last digit. In this case it's half a tenth up and half a tenth down, so 10.5 means between 10.45 and 10.55. Thus it is
2162:. In Friedman, S.M., Dunwoody, S., & Rogers, C. L. (Eds.), Communicating uncertainty: Media coverage of new and controversial science (3–21). Mahwah, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, Inc.
1177:
context for the change. Journalists may give scientists with minority views equal weight as scientists with majority views, without adequately describing or explaining the state of
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which must deal with uncertain representations of the world. There are several common approaches to handling uncertainty. These include the use of certainty factors,
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is used in science and engineering notation. Numerical values should only have to be expressed in those digits that are physically meaningful, which are referred to as
846:
The most commonly used procedure for calculating measurement uncertainty is described in the "Guide to the
Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement" (GUM) published by
1731:
1307:
is a central concept quantifying the dispersion one may reasonably attribute to a measurement result. Such an uncertainty can also be referred to as a measurement
2634:
2363:
Gregory, Kent J.; Bibbo, Giovanni; Pattison, John E. (2005). "A Standard
Approach to Measurement Uncertainties for Scientists and Engineers in Medicine".
801:
nature or if there are "hidden variables" that would describe the state of a particle even more exactly than
Heisenberg's uncertainty principle allows.
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4265:
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mean that the subject at hand is presented as more definitive and certain than it is in reality. There is often a "product over process" approach to
1787:
564:, a state of limited knowledge where it is impossible to exactly describe the existing state, a future outcome, or more than one possible outcome.
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1762:
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Other taxonomies of uncertainties and decisions include a broader sense of uncertainty and how it should be approached from an ethics perspective:
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Shackley, S.; Wynne, B. (1996). "Representing uncertainty in global climate change science and policy: Boundary-ordering devices and authority".
2128:
1832:"Uncertainty vs. Variability: What’s the Difference and Why is it Important?." SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium. OnePetro, 2014
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that looks catastrophic uncertainty square in the face. That would mean taking much bigger and more transformative steps: all but eliminating
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851:
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1251:, uncertainty permits one to describe situations where the user does not have full control on the outcome of the optimization procedure, see
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4275:
3257:
3029:
588:
In statistics and economics, second-order uncertainty is represented in probability density functions over (first-order) probabilities.
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3365:
789:. Ambiguity typically arises in situations where multiple analysts or observers have different interpretations of the same statements.
468:. It applies to predictions of future events, to physical measurements that are already made, or to the unknown. Uncertainty arises in
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assigned to each outcome (as when flipping a fair coin). Knightian uncertainty involves a situation that has unknown probabilities.
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as an issue of scientific uncertainty, which was a precursor to the conflict frame used by journalists when reporting the issue.
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of a measurement, when explicitly stated, is given by a range of values likely to enclose the true value. This may be denoted by
4285:
2172:
Nisbet, M.; Scheufele, D. A. (2009). "What's next for science communication? Promising directions and lingering distractions".
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on the issue. In the same vein, journalists may give non-scientists the same amount of attention and importance as scientists.
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of the mean, which is the standard deviation divided by the square root of the number of measurements. This procedure neglects
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to the numeral left of themselves, and are not part of that number, but part of a notation of uncertainty. They apply to the
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when there are no means available to acquire the knowledge which would resolve the uncertainty, is it considered 'radical'.
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such as the stock market involves
Knightian uncertainty when the probability of a rare but catastrophic event is unknown.
814:
1831:
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186:
1319:(scales, oscilloscopes, force gages, rulers, thermometers, etc.) is often stated in the manufacturers' specifications.
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1995:
1950:
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is a form of uncertainty where even the possible outcomes have unclear meanings and interpretations. The statement
4255:
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1118:
1080:
736:. Some also create new terms without substantially changing the definitions of uncertainty or risk. For example,
1125:, and they apply only if the measurement process produces normally distributed errors. In that case, the quoted
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3182:
3090:
1426:
62:
2445:
MacAskill, William, Krister
Bykvist, & Toby Ord (2020) Moral Uncertainty, Oxford: Oxford University Press.
30:
Situations often arise wherein a decision must be made when the results of each possible choice are uncertain.
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1432:
Many reasoning systems provide capabilities for reasoning under uncertainty. This is important when building
426:
181:
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3666:
3567:
3268:
3251:
3107:
3070:
1645:
Gärdenfors, Peter; Sahlin, Nils-Eric (1982). "Unreliable probabilities, risk taking, and decision making".
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Uncertainty has been a common theme in art, both as a thematic device (see, for example, the indecision of
576:
232:
1808:
858:, and may be grouped into two categories according to the method used to estimate their numerical values:
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In the last notation, parentheses are the concise notation for the ± notation. For example, applying 10
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3013:
2533:
2174:
1550:
1520:
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1475:
1448:
837:
2113:
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Hubbard, D. W. (2014). How to measure anything: finding the value of "intangibles" in business. Wiley.
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At the subatomic level, uncertainty may be a fundamental and unavoidable property of the universe. In
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respectively. But if the accuracy is within two tenths, the uncertainty is ± one tenth, and it is
870:
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126:
1226:, in which the prediction of future events should be understood to have a range of expected values
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Quantitative uses of the terms uncertainty and risk are fairly consistent from fields such as
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1326:, uncertainty can be used in the context of validation and verification of material modeling.
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653:
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412:
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Strategic
Engineering: Designing Systems and Products under Uncertainty (MIT Research Group)
1891:"The ethics of uncertainty. In the light of possible dangers, research becomes a moral duty"
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The middle notation is used when the error is not symmetrical about the value – for example
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Although the terms are used in various ways among the general public, many specialists in
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are assigned to each possible state or outcome – this also includes the application of a
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Somerville, R. C.; Hassol, S. J. (2011). "Communicating the science of climate change".
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and other quantitative fields have defined uncertainty, risk, and their measurement as:
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2021:"Heisenberg uncertainity principle and economic analogues of basic physical quantities"
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is ambiguous because its interpretation depends on whether the word 'bank' is meant as
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20:
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Guidelines for
Evaluating and Expressing the Uncertainty of NIST Measurement Results
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1983:
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1545:
1485:
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1267:
1230:
1110:
1084:
855:
768:
744:. But outside of the more mathematical uses of the term, usage may vary widely. In
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1976:"Exploring Ambiguity and the Ambiguity Model from a Transdisciplinary Perspective"
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2608:, vol. 45, no. 17 (7 September 2023), pp. 17–19. "e are in desperate need of a
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Communicating
Uncertainty: Media Coverage of New and Controversial Science
1805:
Uncertainty, Production, Choice, and Agency: The State-Contingent Approach
1410:
represent key concepts in ancient Greek philosophy regarding uncertainty.
1266:, it is now commonplace to include data on the degree of uncertainty in a
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3436:
3375:
2940:
2935:
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2649:
Estimation of Measurement Uncertainties — an Alternative to the ISO Guide
2029:
2020:
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81:
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Nisbet, M.; Scheufele, D. A. (2007). "The Future of Public Engagement".
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Moses, Yoram; Vardi, Moshe Y; Fagin, Ronald; Halpern, Joseph Y (2003).
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meters in a scientific or engineering application, it could be written
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How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of Intangibles in Business
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2602:"Treading Thin Air: Geoff Mann on Uncertainty and Climate Change",
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1212:
877:
748:, uncertainty can be real, or just a matter of perception, such as
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Measurement Uncertainties in Science and Technology, Springer 2005
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1101:. This can occur when using a logarithmic scale, for example.
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Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making for an Unknowable Future,
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Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making for an Unknowable Future
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Subjective Logic: A Formalism for Reasoning Under Uncertainty
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Type B, those evaluated by other means, e.g., by assigning a
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Australasian Physical and Engineering Sciences in Medicine
2310:. In Friedman, S. M.; Dunwoody, S.; Rogers, C. L. (eds.).
1830:
Begg, Steve H., Matthew B. Welsh, and Reidar B. Bratvold.
1154:
clearly and effectively. One example is explained by the
847:
2661:
Bibliography of Papers Regarding Measurement Uncertainty
2114:"Standard Uncertainty and Relative Standard Uncertainty"
2018:
484:, or both. It arises in any number of fields, including
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1241:
is commonplace and can be modeled and stored within an
618:
instances of the quantity, derived from observed data.
2468:
1982:, Berlin, München, Boston: DE GRUYTER, pp. 1–26,
16:
Situations involving imperfect or unknown information
2362:
1888:
1938:
1337:'s difficulty with deciding what artworks to make).
2308:"How journalists deal with scientific uncertainty"
1133:"), 95.4% ("two sigma"), or 99.7% ("three sigma")
809:The term 'radical uncertainty' was popularised by
2019:Soloviev, V.; Solovieva, V.; Saptsin, V. (2014).
1561:Volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity
1382:the first philosopher to embrace uncertainty was
1140:In this context, uncertainty depends on both the
612:
4470:
2251:
1644:
740:is a variation on uncertainty sometimes used in
2341:
2171:
1075:. This concise notation is used for example by
1681:Uncertainty levels of second-order probability
1427:Reasoning system § Reasoning under uncertainty
852:National Institute of Standards and Technology
3480:
2718:
2216:
1333:), and as a quandary for the artist (such as
434:
1786:, Harvard University Press. Chapter-preview
1756:The Economics of Uncertainty and Information
3258:Hazard analysis and critical control points
2301:
2299:
2297:
2295:
2293:
2291:
2289:
2287:
2285:
908:on a graph, or by the following notations:
583:
571:A set of possible states or outcomes where
3487:
3473:
2725:
2711:
2160:Scientists' representations of uncertainty
1419:
464:situations involving imperfect or unknown
441:
427:
2337:
2335:
2314:. Mahwah, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum. pp.
2028:
1915:
1589:"Introduction to Artificial Intelligence"
3231:Structured or semi-structured interviews
2576:
2305:
2282:
1889:Tannert C, Elvers HD, Jandrig B (2007).
1516:Morphological analysis (problem-solving)
679:
621:
25:
2550:
2498:
2219:Science, Technology, & Human Values
2154:
2152:
2150:
2148:
2146:
2097:
1973:
1679:David Sundgren and Alexander Karlsson.
708:
4471:
2681:
2524:
2433:, Internet Encyclopedia of Philosophy
2332:
1873:
1848:
1784:Essays in the Economics of Uncertainty
1340:Uncertainty is an important factor in
804:
3468:
2706:
2014:
2012:
1882:
1878:. Boston: Hart, Schaffner & Marx.
1844:
1842:
1840:
2530:Theory of Decision under Uncertainty
2143:
2131:from the original on 16 October 2011
1129:are easily converted to 68.3% ("one
963:, by convention meaning accurate to
850:. A derived work is for example the
2732:
13:
3526:Accidental death and dismemberment
3361:Bayesian statistics and Bayes nets
2492:
2009:
1837:
1105:smaller uncertainty, equal to the
825:
631:cases; this is now referred to as
14:
4520:
3290:Failure mode and effects analysis
2678:from Cambridge's Winton programme
2644:Proposal for a New Error Calculus
2625:
1716:, 2nd ed. John Wiley & Sons.
715:calibrated probability assessment
3652:Directors and officers liability
3393:Multi-criteria decision analysis
3341:Reliability centered maintenance
2098:King, Mervyn; Kay, John (2020).
1425:This section is an excerpt from
798:Heisenberg uncertainty principle
595:carry this type of uncertainty.
476:environments, as well as due to
2462:
2448:
2439:
2435:https://www.iep.utm.edu/pyrrho/
2424:
2413:from the original on 2015-09-26
2399:
2356:
2245:
2210:
2165:
2106:
2091:
2066:
1967:
1932:
1867:
1824:
1793:
1506:Keynes' Treatise on Probability
1201:
1148:
1119:list of elements by atomic mass
1023:. The numbers in parentheses
3309:Cause and consequence analysis
3183:Occupational safety and health
3091:Identity and access management
2676:Understanding Uncertainty site
2456:"Moral uncertainty - EA Forum"
2407:"Category:Uncertainty - EVOCD"
1776:
1745:
1706:
1690:
1673:
1638:
1621:
1612:
1573:
613:Uncertainty versus variability
555:
187:Analytic–synthetic distinction
1:
3494:
1876:Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit
1782:Jean-Jacques Laffont (1980).
1567:
1367:
1207:Uncertainty is designed into
650:Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit
4419:Savings and loan association
3269:Structured What If Technique
3252:Hazard and operability study
3108:Business continuity planning
1939:Williamson, Timothy (1994).
1852:Risk, uncertainty and profit
1352:, where there is a specific
577:probability density function
7:
4504:Probability interpretations
3852:Insurance-linked securities
3246:Preliminary hazard analysis
3065:Operational risk management
2556:Reasoning about Uncertainty
1703:Springer, Heidelberg, 2016.
1634:10.1109/ACCESS.2018.2836917
1463:
885:of a repeated observation.
862:Type A, those evaluated by
539:
10:
4525:
3541:Total permanent disability
3330:Human reliability analysis
3014:Enterprise risk management
2534:Cambridge University Press
2231:10.1177/016224399602100302
2175:American Journal of Botany
2102:. The Bridge Street Press.
1551:Uncertainty quantification
1521:Propagation of uncertainty
1481:Further research is needed
1424:
1371:
1292:forms the basis of modern
838:Uncertainty quantification
835:
829:
779:"He returns from the bank"
568:Measurement of uncertainty
18:
4444:
4296:
4281:Health insurance coverage
4221:
4005:
3834:
3776:
3705:
3624:
3576:
3546:Business overhead expense
3511:
3502:
3402:
3319:Layer protection analysis
3314:Cause-and-effect analysis
3196:
3121:Financial risk management
3003:
2968:
2858:Vulnerability (computing)
2747:
2740:
2582:Ignorance and Uncertainty
2504:Understanding Uncertainty
2472:Reasoning About Knowledge
1988:10.1515/9783110403589-002
1974:Winkler, Susanne (2015),
1849:Knight, Frank H. (2009).
1344:. According to economist
1156:information deficit model
787:"a financial institution"
701:Understanding Uncertainty
684:A taxonomy of uncertainty
293:Evolutionary epistemology
4484:Concepts in epistemology
3682:Protection and indemnity
3280:Business impact analysis
3096:Vulnerability management
3042:Personal risk management
2841:Global catastrophic risk
2696:University of Nottingham
1908:10.1038/sj.embor.7401072
1855:. Kessinger Publishing.
1712:Douglas Hubbard (2010).
1400:philosophical skepticism
1388:Hellenistic philosophies
1374:Philosophical skepticism
1029:least significant digits
871:probability distribution
584:Second-order uncertainty
579:to continuous variables.
408:Philosophy of perception
19:Not to be confused with
4139:Explanation of benefits
3611:Variable universal life
3161:Precautionary principle
3113:Disaster risk reduction
1799:Robert G. Chambers and
1511:Measurement uncertainty
1501:Interval finite element
1420:Artificial intelligence
1398:, the first schools of
1348:, it is different from
1305:measurement uncertainty
1257:stochastic optimization
842:Uncertainty propagation
832:Measurement uncertainty
598:
303:Historical epistemology
4276:Health insurance costs
3677:Professional liability
3356:Monte Carlo simulation
3346:Sneak circuit analysis
2741:Risk type & source
2682:Bowley, Roger (2009).
2605:London Review of Books
2054:Cite journal requires
1874:Knight, F. H. (1921).
1476:Dempster–Shafer theory
1449:Dempster–Shafer theory
1160:climate change deniers
1142:accuracy and precision
693:
685:
671:
659:
626:In economics, in 1921
31:
4132:Out-of-pocket expense
3993:Workers' compensation
3647:Collateral protection
3637:Business interruption
3381:Cost/benefit analysis
3025:Regulatory compliance
2616:... and prioritizing
2306:Stocking, H. (1999).
2074:"Radical Uncertainty"
1556:Uncertainty tolerance
1541:Statistical mechanics
1455:') logic and various
1317:measuring instruments
1290:uncertainty principle
1253:scenario optimization
900:, the uncertainty or
783:"the side of a river"
688:
683:
660:
654:University of Chicago
637:
633:Knightian uncertainty
622:Knightian uncertainty
413:Philosophy of science
29:
4494:Experimental physics
4355:Corpus Juris Civilis
3144:Strategic management
3020:Corporate governance
2798:Anthropogenic hazard
2458:. 10 September 2020.
2158:Zehr, S. C. (1999).
1945:. Psychology Press.
1769:and chapter-preview
1752:Jean-Jacques Laffont
1536:Scientific consensus
1233:, and in particular
1224:scientific modelling
1179:scientific consensus
1135:confidence intervals
746:cognitive psychology
709:Risk and uncertainty
470:partially observable
288:Applied epistemology
4414:Rochdale Principles
4409:Mutual savings bank
4404:Mutual organization
4389:Cooperative banking
4306:Mesopotamian banker
3586:Longevity insurance
3304:Event tree analysis
3299:Fault tree analysis
3285:Root cause analysis
3264:Toxicity assessment
3206:Exposure assessment
3176:Disaster management
3103:Incident management
3086:Security management
2779:Psychosocial hazard
2762:Reputational damage
2268:2011PhT....64j..48S
2188:10.3732/ajb.0900041
1496:Information entropy
1396:Academic Skepticism
1279:significant figures
1264:weather forecasting
1219:is central to play.
1162:took the advice of
1123:normal distribution
876:By propagating the
805:Radical uncertainty
534:information science
398:Epistemic cognition
318:Virtue epistemology
313:Social epistemology
298:Formal epistemology
37:Part of a series on
4166:Insurable interest
3667:Payment protection
3568:Payment protection
3386:Risk–benefit ratio
3188:Swiss cheese model
3149:Risk communication
3057:Disease management
2931:Exchange rate risk
2926:Interest rate risk
2654:2008-05-27 at the
2637:2007-12-15 at the
2508:Wiley-Interscience
2500:Lindley, Dennis V.
2377:10.1007/BF03178705
2030:10.31812/0564/1306
1765:2012-01-25 at the
1734:2013-04-27 at the
1723:2011-11-22 at the
1659:10.1007/BF00486156
1445:Bayesian inference
1380:Western philosophy
1243:uncertain database
1211:, most notably in
1187:science journalism
979:, and 10.50 means
883:standard deviation
742:information theory
734:information theory
726:probability theory
686:
32:
21:Uncertainty (film)
4466:
4465:
4311:Code of Hammurabi
4286:Vehicle insurance
4181:Replacement value
4073:Actual cash value
4037:Adverse selection
4027:Actuarial science
4001:
4000:
3933:Kidnap and ransom
3906:Extended warranty
3553:Income protection
3462:
3461:
3275:Scenario analysis
3216:Scenario planning
3171:Crisis management
3052:Stress management
2999:
2998:
2892:Reputational risk
2684:"∆ – Uncertainty"
2595:978-0-387-96945-9
2578:Smithson, Michael
2517:978-0-470-04383-7
2482:978-0-262-56200-3
2325:978-0-8058-2727-9
2276:10.1063/pt.3.1296
2182:(10): 1767–1778.
1531:Schrödinger's cat
1451:, multi-valued ('
1414:William MacAskill
1386:resulting in the
1361:financial markets
1294:quantum mechanics
1288:, the Heisenberg
1111:systematic errors
794:quantum mechanics
730:actuarial science
451:
450:
4516:
4424:Social insurance
4379:Friendly society
4271:Health insurance
4099:Short rate table
3847:Catastrophe bond
3748:Lenders mortgage
3509:
3508:
3489:
3482:
3475:
3466:
3465:
3454:Opportunity cost
3403:Related concepts
3336:Bow tie analysis
3221:Contingency plan
3047:Health insurance
3035:Internal control
2876:Operational risk
2791:Natural disaster
2745:
2744:
2727:
2720:
2713:
2704:
2703:
2699:
2599:
2573:
2547:
2521:
2487:
2486:
2466:
2460:
2459:
2452:
2446:
2443:
2437:
2428:
2422:
2421:
2419:
2418:
2403:
2397:
2396:
2360:
2354:
2353:
2339:
2330:
2329:
2303:
2280:
2279:
2249:
2243:
2242:
2214:
2208:
2207:
2169:
2163:
2156:
2141:
2140:
2138:
2136:
2110:
2104:
2103:
2095:
2089:
2088:
2086:
2085:
2070:
2064:
2063:
2057:
2052:
2050:
2042:
2032:
2016:
2007:
2006:
2005:
2004:
1971:
1965:
1964:
1936:
1930:
1929:
1919:
1886:
1880:
1879:
1871:
1865:
1864:
1846:
1835:
1828:
1822:
1797:
1791:
1780:
1774:
1749:
1743:
1710:
1704:
1694:
1688:
1687:, 48:5–11, 2013.
1677:
1671:
1670:
1642:
1636:
1625:
1619:
1616:
1610:
1609:
1607:
1606:
1597:. Archived from
1577:
1546:Subjective logic
1486:Fuzzy set theory
1443:methods such as
1437:reasoning agents
1268:weather forecast
1231:computer science
1100:
1099:
1098:
1074:
1073:
1069:
1066:
1060:
1058:
1052:
1051:
1047:
1044:
1038:
1036:
1031:. For instance,
1022:
1018:
1014:
1012:
1006:
1004:
999:to be explicit:
994:
990:
986:
984:
978:
976:
971:that 10.5 means
962:
958:
954:
953:
949:
931:
930:
856:random variables
769:subjective logic
752:, threats, etc.
704:
669:
657:
593:subjective logic
443:
436:
429:
343:Sextus Empiricus
308:Metaepistemology
34:
33:
4524:
4523:
4519:
4518:
4517:
4515:
4514:
4513:
4509:Prospect theory
4469:
4468:
4467:
4462:
4440:
4436:Insurance cycle
4399:Fraternal order
4292:
4223:
4217:
4176:Proximate cause
4171:Insurance fraud
4151:General average
4110:Claims adjuster
4052:Risk management
4047:Risk assessment
4011:
4008:
3997:
3963:Prize indemnity
3830:
3778:
3772:
3701:
3662:Over-redemption
3620:
3572:
3563:National health
3504:
3498:
3493:
3463:
3458:
3442:Problem solving
3398:
3351:Markov analysis
3211:Hazard analysis
3198:Risk assessment
3192:
3127:Diversification
3005:Countermeasures
2995:
2964:
2810:Technology risk
2736:
2734:Risk management
2731:
2656:Wayback Machine
2639:Wayback Machine
2628:
2596:
2586:Springer-Verlag
2570:
2552:Halpern, Joseph
2544:
2518:
2495:
2493:Further reading
2490:
2483:
2467:
2463:
2454:
2453:
2449:
2444:
2440:
2429:
2425:
2416:
2414:
2405:
2404:
2400:
2361:
2357:
2340:
2333:
2326:
2304:
2283:
2250:
2246:
2215:
2211:
2170:
2166:
2157:
2144:
2134:
2132:
2112:
2111:
2107:
2096:
2092:
2083:
2081:
2072:
2071:
2067:
2055:
2053:
2044:
2043:
2017:
2010:
2002:
2000:
1998:
1972:
1968:
1953:
1937:
1933:
1887:
1883:
1872:
1868:
1847:
1838:
1829:
1825:
1798:
1794:
1781:
1777:
1767:Wayback Machine
1750:
1746:
1736:Wayback Machine
1725:Wayback Machine
1711:
1707:
1695:
1691:
1678:
1674:
1643:
1639:
1626:
1622:
1617:
1613:
1604:
1602:
1585:Sebastian Thrun
1578:
1574:
1570:
1565:
1466:
1461:
1460:
1430:
1422:
1376:
1370:
1273:Uncertainty or
1235:data management
1204:
1151:
1127:standard errors
1096:
1094:
1093:
1091:
1079:in stating the
1071:
1067:
1064:
1062:
1056:
1054:
1049:
1045:
1042:
1040:
1034:
1032:
1020:
1016:
1010:
1008:
1002:
1000:
992:
988:
987:, also written
982:
980:
974:
972:
960:
956:
951:
947:
946:
929:
926:
925:
924:
902:margin of error
844:
834:
828:
826:In measurements
807:
711:
706:
695:
670:
667:
658:
644:
624:
615:
601:
586:
558:
546:decision theory
542:
447:
418:
417:
403:Epistemic logic
393:
392:
383:
382:
333:
332:
331:Epistemologists
323:
322:
283:
282:
273:
272:
177:
176:
167:
166:
112:Foundationalism
77:
76:
67:
24:
17:
12:
11:
5:
4522:
4512:
4511:
4506:
4501:
4496:
4491:
4486:
4481:
4464:
4463:
4461:
4460:
4457:List of topics
4453:
4445:
4442:
4441:
4439:
4438:
4433:
4432:
4431:
4426:
4421:
4416:
4411:
4406:
4401:
4396:
4391:
4386:
4372:
4367:
4366:
4365:
4351:
4350:
4349:
4344:
4342:Burial society
4332:
4331:
4330:
4324:§235–238; §240
4316:§100–105; §126
4308:
4302:
4300:
4294:
4293:
4291:
4290:
4289:
4288:
4283:
4278:
4273:
4268:
4266:Climate change
4258:
4256:United Kingdom
4253:
4248:
4243:
4238:
4233:
4227:
4225:
4219:
4218:
4216:
4215:
4214:
4213:
4203:
4201:Underinsurance
4198:
4193:
4191:Self-insurance
4188:
4183:
4178:
4173:
4168:
4163:
4158:
4153:
4148:
4141:
4136:
4135:
4134:
4129:
4124:
4114:
4113:
4112:
4102:
4101:
4100:
4097:
4085:
4080:
4075:
4070:
4069:
4068:
4063:
4054:
4049:
4044:
4039:
4034:
4024:
4018:
4016:
4003:
4002:
3999:
3998:
3996:
3995:
3990:
3985:
3980:
3975:
3970:
3965:
3960:
3958:Political risk
3955:
3950:
3945:
3940:
3938:Legal expenses
3935:
3930:
3925:
3924:
3923:
3913:
3908:
3903:
3898:
3893:
3888:
3887:
3886:
3881:
3871:
3866:
3861:
3856:
3855:
3854:
3849:
3838:
3836:
3832:
3831:
3829:
3828:
3823:
3818:
3813:
3808:
3803:
3798:
3793:
3788:
3782:
3780:
3774:
3773:
3771:
3770:
3765:
3760:
3755:
3750:
3745:
3740:
3735:
3730:
3725:
3720:
3718:Builder's risk
3715:
3709:
3707:
3703:
3702:
3700:
3699:
3694:
3689:
3684:
3679:
3674:
3669:
3664:
3659:
3654:
3649:
3644:
3642:Business owner
3639:
3634:
3628:
3626:
3622:
3621:
3619:
3618:
3613:
3608:
3606:Universal life
3603:
3598:
3593:
3588:
3582:
3580:
3574:
3573:
3571:
3570:
3565:
3560:
3558:Long-term care
3555:
3550:
3549:
3548:
3543:
3533:
3528:
3523:
3517:
3515:
3506:
3500:
3499:
3492:
3491:
3484:
3477:
3469:
3460:
3459:
3457:
3456:
3451:
3450:
3449:
3439:
3434:
3429:
3424:
3419:
3418:
3417:
3406:
3404:
3400:
3399:
3397:
3396:
3390:
3389:
3388:
3378:
3373:
3368:
3363:
3358:
3353:
3348:
3343:
3338:
3333:
3327:
3322:
3316:
3311:
3306:
3301:
3296:
3287:
3282:
3277:
3272:
3266:
3261:
3255:
3249:
3243:
3238:
3233:
3228:
3223:
3218:
3213:
3208:
3202:
3200:
3194:
3193:
3191:
3190:
3185:
3180:
3179:
3178:
3168:
3163:
3158:
3157:
3156:
3154:Warning system
3146:
3141:
3140:
3139:
3134:
3129:
3117:
3116:
3115:
3110:
3105:
3100:
3099:
3098:
3093:
3083:
3078:
3073:
3061:
3060:
3059:
3054:
3049:
3039:
3038:
3037:
3032:
3027:
3022:
3009:
3007:
3001:
3000:
2997:
2996:
2994:
2993:
2988:
2983:
2978:
2972:
2970:
2966:
2965:
2963:
2962:
2957:
2954:Strategic risk
2950:
2949:
2948:
2943:
2938:
2933:
2928:
2923:
2921:Liquidity risk
2918:
2910:Financial risk
2906:
2905:
2904:
2899:
2894:
2889:
2884:
2882:Execution risk
2872:
2871:
2870:
2865:
2860:
2850:
2845:
2844:
2843:
2838:
2824:
2823:
2822:
2817:
2807:
2806:
2805:
2803:Political risk
2795:
2794:
2793:
2783:
2782:
2781:
2776:
2766:
2765:
2764:
2756:Business risks
2751:
2749:
2742:
2738:
2737:
2730:
2729:
2722:
2715:
2707:
2701:
2700:
2679:
2673:
2668:
2663:
2658:
2646:
2641:
2627:
2626:External links
2624:
2623:
2622:
2600:
2594:
2574:
2568:
2554:(2005-09-01).
2548:
2542:
2526:Gilboa, Itzhak
2522:
2516:
2502:(2006-09-11).
2494:
2491:
2489:
2488:
2481:
2461:
2447:
2438:
2423:
2398:
2371:(2): 131–139.
2355:
2331:
2324:
2281:
2244:
2225:(3): 275–302.
2209:
2164:
2142:
2105:
2090:
2065:
2056:|journal=
2008:
1996:
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1951:
1931:
1881:
1866:
1836:
1823:
1792:
1775:
1744:
1705:
1696:Audun Jøsang.
1689:
1672:
1653:(3): 361–386.
1637:
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1372:Main article:
1369:
1366:
1365:
1364:
1357:
1338:
1327:
1320:
1312:
1297:
1282:
1271:
1260:
1245:
1239:uncertain data
1227:
1220:
1203:
1200:
1168:global warming
1150:
1147:
1107:standard error
943:
942:
935:measured value
932:
927:
922:measured value
919:
913:measured value
874:
873:
867:
830:Main article:
827:
824:
817:in their book
806:
803:
710:
707:
697:Dennis Lindley
687:
665:
642:
623:
620:
614:
611:
610:
609:
600:
597:
585:
582:
581:
580:
569:
557:
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541:
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449:
448:
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438:
431:
423:
420:
419:
416:
415:
410:
405:
400:
394:
391:Related fields
390:
389:
388:
385:
384:
381:
380:
375:
373:W. V. O. Quine
370:
365:
360:
358:René Descartes
355:
350:
348:Edmund Gettier
345:
340:
334:
330:
329:
328:
325:
324:
321:
320:
315:
310:
305:
300:
295:
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284:
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189:
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159:
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149:
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139:
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109:
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84:
78:
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60:
55:
49:
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39:
38:
15:
9:
6:
4:
3:
2:
4521:
4510:
4507:
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4500:
4497:
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4430:
4427:
4425:
4422:
4420:
4417:
4415:
4412:
4410:
4407:
4405:
4402:
4400:
4397:
4395:
4392:
4390:
4387:
4385:
4382:
4381:
4380:
4376:
4373:
4371:
4368:
4364:
4363:
4359:
4358:
4357:
4356:
4352:
4348:
4345:
4343:
4340:
4339:
4338:
4337:
4333:
4329:
4325:
4321:
4317:
4314:
4313:
4312:
4309:
4307:
4304:
4303:
4301:
4299:
4295:
4287:
4284:
4282:
4279:
4277:
4274:
4272:
4269:
4267:
4264:
4263:
4262:
4261:United States
4259:
4257:
4254:
4252:
4249:
4247:
4244:
4242:
4239:
4237:
4234:
4232:
4229:
4228:
4226:
4220:
4212:
4209:
4208:
4207:
4204:
4202:
4199:
4197:
4194:
4192:
4189:
4187:
4184:
4182:
4179:
4177:
4174:
4172:
4169:
4167:
4164:
4162:
4159:
4157:
4154:
4152:
4149:
4147:
4146:
4145:Force majeure
4142:
4140:
4137:
4133:
4130:
4128:
4125:
4123:
4120:
4119:
4118:
4115:
4111:
4108:
4107:
4106:
4103:
4098:
4096:
4095:
4091:
4090:
4089:
4086:
4084:
4081:
4079:
4076:
4074:
4071:
4067:
4066:Value of life
4064:
4062:
4058:
4055:
4053:
4050:
4048:
4045:
4043:
4040:
4038:
4035:
4033:
4030:
4029:
4028:
4025:
4023:
4020:
4019:
4017:
4015:
4010:
4004:
3994:
3991:
3989:
3986:
3984:
3981:
3979:
3976:
3974:
3971:
3969:
3966:
3964:
3961:
3959:
3956:
3954:
3951:
3949:
3946:
3944:
3941:
3939:
3936:
3934:
3931:
3929:
3928:Interest rate
3926:
3922:
3919:
3918:
3917:
3914:
3912:
3909:
3907:
3904:
3902:
3899:
3897:
3894:
3892:
3889:
3885:
3882:
3880:
3877:
3876:
3875:
3872:
3870:
3867:
3865:
3862:
3860:
3857:
3853:
3850:
3848:
3845:
3844:
3843:
3840:
3839:
3837:
3833:
3827:
3824:
3822:
3819:
3817:
3814:
3812:
3809:
3807:
3804:
3802:
3799:
3797:
3796:Inland marine
3794:
3792:
3791:GAP insurance
3789:
3787:
3784:
3783:
3781:
3779:Communication
3775:
3769:
3766:
3764:
3761:
3759:
3756:
3754:
3751:
3749:
3746:
3744:
3741:
3739:
3736:
3734:
3731:
3729:
3726:
3724:
3721:
3719:
3716:
3714:
3711:
3710:
3708:
3704:
3698:
3695:
3693:
3690:
3688:
3685:
3683:
3680:
3678:
3675:
3673:
3670:
3668:
3665:
3663:
3660:
3658:
3655:
3653:
3650:
3648:
3645:
3643:
3640:
3638:
3635:
3633:
3630:
3629:
3627:
3623:
3617:
3614:
3612:
3609:
3607:
3604:
3602:
3601:Unitised fund
3599:
3597:
3594:
3592:
3591:Mortgage life
3589:
3587:
3584:
3583:
3581:
3579:
3575:
3569:
3566:
3564:
3561:
3559:
3556:
3554:
3551:
3547:
3544:
3542:
3539:
3538:
3537:
3534:
3532:
3529:
3527:
3524:
3522:
3519:
3518:
3516:
3514:
3510:
3507:
3501:
3497:
3490:
3485:
3483:
3478:
3476:
3471:
3470:
3467:
3455:
3452:
3448:
3445:
3444:
3443:
3440:
3438:
3435:
3433:
3430:
3428:
3427:Risk appetite
3425:
3423:
3420:
3416:
3415:ISO/IEC 31010
3413:
3412:
3411:
3408:
3407:
3405:
3401:
3394:
3391:
3387:
3384:
3383:
3382:
3379:
3377:
3374:
3372:
3369:
3367:
3364:
3362:
3359:
3357:
3354:
3352:
3349:
3347:
3344:
3342:
3339:
3337:
3334:
3331:
3328:
3326:
3325:Decision tree
3323:
3320:
3317:
3315:
3312:
3310:
3307:
3305:
3302:
3300:
3297:
3295:
3291:
3288:
3286:
3283:
3281:
3278:
3276:
3273:
3270:
3267:
3265:
3262:
3259:
3256:
3253:
3250:
3247:
3244:
3242:
3239:
3237:
3236:Delphi method
3234:
3232:
3229:
3227:
3226:Brainstorming
3224:
3222:
3219:
3217:
3214:
3212:
3209:
3207:
3204:
3203:
3201:
3199:
3195:
3189:
3186:
3184:
3181:
3177:
3174:
3173:
3172:
3169:
3167:
3164:
3162:
3159:
3155:
3152:
3151:
3150:
3147:
3145:
3142:
3138:
3135:
3133:
3130:
3128:
3125:
3124:
3123:
3122:
3118:
3114:
3111:
3109:
3106:
3104:
3101:
3097:
3094:
3092:
3089:
3088:
3087:
3084:
3082:
3079:
3077:
3074:
3072:
3069:
3068:
3067:
3066:
3062:
3058:
3055:
3053:
3050:
3048:
3045:
3044:
3043:
3040:
3036:
3033:
3031:
3028:
3026:
3023:
3021:
3018:
3017:
3016:
3015:
3011:
3010:
3008:
3006:
3002:
2992:
2991:Vulnerability
2989:
2987:
2984:
2982:
2979:
2977:
2974:
2973:
2971:
2967:
2961:
2960:Residual risk
2958:
2956:
2955:
2951:
2947:
2946:Systemic risk
2944:
2942:
2939:
2937:
2934:
2932:
2929:
2927:
2924:
2922:
2919:
2917:
2914:
2913:
2912:
2911:
2907:
2903:
2900:
2898:
2895:
2893:
2890:
2888:
2885:
2883:
2880:
2879:
2878:
2877:
2873:
2869:
2866:
2864:
2861:
2859:
2856:
2855:
2854:
2853:Security risk
2851:
2849:
2848:Safety hazard
2846:
2842:
2839:
2837:
2834:
2833:
2832:
2831:External risk
2828:
2825:
2821:
2818:
2816:
2813:
2812:
2811:
2808:
2804:
2801:
2800:
2799:
2796:
2792:
2789:
2788:
2787:
2784:
2780:
2777:
2775:
2772:
2771:
2770:
2769:Personal risk
2767:
2763:
2760:
2759:
2758:
2757:
2753:
2752:
2750:
2746:
2743:
2739:
2735:
2728:
2723:
2721:
2716:
2714:
2709:
2708:
2705:
2697:
2693:
2689:
2688:Sixty Symbols
2685:
2680:
2677:
2674:
2672:
2669:
2667:
2664:
2662:
2659:
2657:
2653:
2650:
2647:
2645:
2642:
2640:
2636:
2633:
2630:
2629:
2619:
2615:
2611:
2607:
2606:
2601:
2597:
2591:
2587:
2583:
2579:
2575:
2571:
2569:9780521517324
2565:
2561:
2557:
2553:
2549:
2545:
2543:9780521517324
2539:
2535:
2532:. Cambridge:
2531:
2527:
2523:
2519:
2513:
2509:
2505:
2501:
2497:
2496:
2484:
2478:
2475:. MIT Press.
2474:
2473:
2465:
2457:
2451:
2442:
2436:
2432:
2427:
2412:
2408:
2402:
2394:
2390:
2386:
2382:
2378:
2374:
2370:
2366:
2359:
2351:
2347:
2346:
2345:The Scientist
2338:
2336:
2327:
2321:
2317:
2313:
2309:
2302:
2300:
2298:
2296:
2294:
2292:
2290:
2288:
2286:
2277:
2273:
2269:
2265:
2262:(10): 48–53.
2261:
2257:
2256:
2255:Physics Today
2248:
2240:
2236:
2232:
2228:
2224:
2220:
2213:
2205:
2201:
2197:
2193:
2189:
2185:
2181:
2177:
2176:
2168:
2161:
2155:
2153:
2151:
2149:
2147:
2130:
2126:
2122:
2120:
2115:
2109:
2101:
2094:
2079:
2075:
2069:
2061:
2048:
2040:
2036:
2031:
2026:
2022:
2015:
2013:
1999:
1997:9783110403589
1993:
1989:
1985:
1981:
1977:
1970:
1962:
1958:
1954:
1952:0-415-03331-4
1948:
1944:
1943:
1935:
1927:
1923:
1918:
1913:
1909:
1905:
1902:(10): 892–6.
1901:
1898:
1897:
1892:
1885:
1877:
1870:
1862:
1858:
1854:
1853:
1845:
1843:
1841:
1833:
1827:
1821:
1820:0-521-62244-1
1817:
1814:
1810:
1807:. Cambridge.
1806:
1802:
1796:
1789:
1785:
1779:
1772:
1768:
1764:
1761:
1758:, MIT Press.
1757:
1753:
1748:
1741:
1737:
1733:
1730:
1726:
1722:
1719:
1715:
1709:
1702:
1700:
1693:
1686:
1682:
1676:
1668:
1664:
1660:
1656:
1652:
1648:
1641:
1635:
1631:
1624:
1615:
1601:on 2014-01-22
1600:
1596:
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1590:
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1557:
1554:
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1537:
1534:
1532:
1529:
1527:
1524:
1522:
1519:
1517:
1514:
1512:
1509:
1507:
1504:
1502:
1499:
1497:
1494:
1492:
1489:
1487:
1484:
1482:
1479:
1477:
1474:
1472:
1469:
1468:
1458:
1457:connectionist
1454:
1450:
1446:
1442:
1441:probabilistic
1438:
1435:
1428:
1417:
1415:
1411:
1409:
1405:
1401:
1397:
1393:
1389:
1385:
1381:
1375:
1362:
1359:Investing in
1358:
1355:
1351:
1347:
1343:
1339:
1336:
1332:
1328:
1325:
1321:
1318:
1313:
1310:
1306:
1302:
1298:
1295:
1291:
1287:
1283:
1280:
1276:
1272:
1269:
1265:
1261:
1258:
1254:
1250:
1246:
1244:
1240:
1236:
1232:
1228:
1225:
1221:
1218:
1214:
1210:
1206:
1205:
1199:
1195:
1191:
1188:
1182:
1180:
1174:
1171:
1169:
1165:
1161:
1157:
1146:
1143:
1138:
1136:
1132:
1128:
1124:
1120:
1114:
1112:
1108:
1102:
1088:
1086:
1082:
1078:
1030:
1026:
998:
970:
966:
940:
936:
933:
923:
920:
918:
914:
911:
910:
909:
907:
903:
899:
895:
891:
886:
884:
879:
872:
868:
865:
861:
860:
859:
857:
853:
849:
843:
839:
833:
823:
820:
816:
812:
802:
799:
795:
790:
788:
784:
780:
776:
772:
770:
766:
762:
757:
753:
751:
747:
743:
739:
735:
731:
727:
722:
718:
716:
705:
702:
698:
692:
682:
678:
675:
664:
655:
651:
648:(1885–1972),
647:
641:
636:
634:
629:
619:
606:
603:
602:
596:
594:
589:
578:
574:
573:probabilities
570:
567:
566:
565:
563:
553:
551:
547:
537:
535:
531:
527:
523:
519:
515:
511:
507:
503:
499:
495:
491:
487:
483:
479:
475:
471:
467:
463:
459:
455:
444:
439:
437:
432:
430:
425:
424:
422:
421:
414:
411:
409:
406:
404:
401:
399:
396:
395:
387:
386:
379:
376:
374:
371:
369:
368:Immanuel Kant
366:
364:
361:
359:
356:
354:
353:Wang Yangming
351:
349:
346:
344:
341:
339:
336:
335:
327:
326:
319:
316:
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309:
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269:
266:
264:
261:
259:
256:
254:
251:
249:
246:
244:
241:
239:
236:
234:
233:Justification
231:
229:
226:
224:
221:
219:
216:
214:
211:
209:
206:
204:
201:
199:
198:
194:
190:
188:
185:
183:
180:
179:
171:
170:
163:
162:Structuralism
160:
158:
155:
153:
150:
148:
145:
143:
140:
138:
135:
133:
132:Perspectivism
130:
128:
125:
123:
120:
118:
117:Infallibilism
115:
113:
110:
108:
105:
103:
100:
98:
95:
93:
90:
88:
87:Contextualism
85:
83:
80:
79:
71:
70:
64:
61:
59:
56:
54:
51:
50:
48:
47:
44:
41:
40:
36:
35:
28:
22:
4455:
4448:
4394:Credit union
4360:
4353:
4334:
4206:Underwriting
4161:Insurability
4143:
4122:Co-insurance
4092:
4088:Cancellation
4056:
3879:Catastrophic
3864:Climate risk
3692:Trade credit
3119:
3071:Supply chain
3063:
3041:
3012:
2985:
2952:
2908:
2897:Country risk
2874:
2852:
2836:Extreme risk
2786:Natural risk
2768:
2754:
2687:
2614:fossil fuels
2603:
2584:. New York:
2581:
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2529:
2503:
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2464:
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2430:
2426:
2415:. Retrieved
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2352:(10): 38–44.
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2135:26 September
2133:. Retrieved
2117:
2108:
2099:
2093:
2082:. Retrieved
2080:. 2020-02-12
2077:
2068:
2047:cite journal
2001:, retrieved
1979:
1969:
1941:
1934:
1899:
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1884:
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1851:
1826:
1804:
1801:John Quiggin
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1603:. Retrieved
1599:the original
1592:
1581:Peter Norvig
1575:
1412:
1377:
1346:Frank Knight
1335:Martin Creed
1249:optimization
1202:Applications
1196:
1192:
1183:
1175:
1172:
1152:
1149:In the media
1139:
1115:
1103:
1089:
1024:
996:
968:
964:
961:10.50 m
944:
938:
934:
928:−uncertainty
921:
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912:
887:
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791:
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723:
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694:
689:
676:
672:
668:Frank Knight
661:
649:
646:Frank Knight
638:
628:Frank Knight
625:
616:
591:Opinions in
590:
587:
560:The lack of
559:
543:
457:
453:
452:
197:a posteriori
196:
192:
43:Epistemology
4499:Measurement
4429:Trade union
4384:Cooperative
4057:Uncertainty
3916:Index-based
3884:Multi-peril
3842:Reinsurance
3801:Public auto
3706:Residential
3437:Rare events
3376:Risk Matrix
2986:Uncertainty
2969:Risk source
2941:Profit risk
2936:Market risk
2916:Credit risk
2774:Health risk
2692:Brady Haran
1809:Description
1760:Description
1718:Description
1491:Game theory
1459:approaches.
1354:probability
1324:engineering
1164:Frank Luntz
1113:, however.
1081:atomic mass
1061:stands for
1039:stands for
957:10.5 m
939:uncertainty
917:uncertainty
898:engineering
864:statistical
815:Mervyn King
765:fuzzy logic
556:Uncertainty
526:meteorology
518:engineering
504:, finance,
466:information
458:incertitude
454:Uncertainty
253:Rationality
228:Information
142:Rationalism
102:Fallibilism
82:Coherentism
4473:Categories
4224:by country
4222:Insurance
4196:Total loss
4117:Deductible
4078:Cash value
4022:Act of God
4007:Insurance
3921:Parametric
3901:Expatriate
3777:Transport/
3743:Landlords'
3728:Earthquake
3616:Whole life
3536:Disability
3432:Hazard map
3371:Risk index
2902:Legal risk
2887:Model risk
2827:Macro risk
2618:democratic
2417:2016-07-29
2084:2023-06-30
2003:2023-04-02
1605:2013-07-04
1568:References
1526:Randomness
1408:acatalepsy
1392:Pyrrhonism
1368:Philosophy
969:understood
906:error bars
836:See also:
608:variables.
550:statistics
510:psychology
498:statistics
490:philosophy
474:stochastic
460:refers to
363:David Hume
223:Experience
152:Skepticism
147:Relativism
137:Pragmatism
127:Naturalism
122:Infinitism
97:Empiricism
4479:Cognition
4370:Syndicate
4336:Collegium
4231:Australia
4186:Risk pool
4156:Indemnity
4127:Copayment
4061:Knightian
3973:Terrorism
3943:Liability
3811:Satellite
3672:Pollution
3596:Term life
3505:insurance
3503:Types of
3496:Insurance
3410:ISO 31000
3292:(FMEA) /
3241:Checklist
3166:Insurance
3137:Risk pool
2748:Risk type
2560:MIT Press
2239:145178297
2121:reference
2039:248741767
1980:Ambiguity
1961:254215717
1942:Vagueness
1896:EMBO Rep.
1861:449946611
1471:Certainty
1342:economics
1301:metrology
1166:to frame
993:10.500(5)
890:metrology
878:variances
775:Ambiguity
756:Vagueness
738:surprisal
562:certainty
522:metrology
514:sociology
502:economics
486:insurance
482:indolence
478:ignorance
462:epistemic
338:Aristotle
243:Knowledge
238:Induction
213:Certainty
157:Solipsism
92:Dogmatism
4450:Category
4328:§275–277
4246:Pakistan
4094:Pro rata
3983:War risk
3948:No-fault
3859:Casualty
3816:Shipping
3786:Aviation
3763:Renters'
3758:Property
3753:Mortgage
3723:Contents
3697:Umbrella
3657:Fidelity
3625:Business
3521:Accident
3447:Security
3366:FN curve
2981:Conflict
2868:Accident
2694:for the
2652:Archived
2635:Archived
2610:politics
2580:(1989).
2528:(2009).
2411:Archived
2393:13018991
2385:16060321
2204:11964566
2196:21622297
2129:Archived
2078:John Kay
1926:17906667
1813:preview.
1803:(2000).
1763:Archived
1754:(1989).
1732:Archived
1729:contents
1721:Archived
1685:Polibits
1667:36194904
1647:Synthese
1464:See also
1434:situated
1215:, where
1213:gambling
1085:elements
1053:, while
1021:10.50(1)
997:required
989:10.50(5)
811:John Kay
666:—
652:(1921),
643:—
540:Concepts
506:medicine
208:Credence
193:A priori
175:Concepts
58:Category
4375:Benefit
4362:Digesta
4298:History
4032:Actuary
3988:Weather
3978:Tuition
3968:Takaful
3896:Deposit
3826:Vehicle
3271:(SWIFT)
3260:(HACCP)
3254:(HAZOP)
3081:Quality
3076:Project
2815:IT risk
2264:Bibcode
1917:2002561
1740:preview
1738:, and
1594:Udacity
1286:physics
1017:10.5(1)
950:⁄
894:physics
866:methods
530:ecology
494:physics
378:more...
281:Domains
248:Meaning
107:Fideism
75:Schools
53:Outline
4251:Serbia
4211:Profit
4083:Broker
4009:policy
3821:Travel
3806:Marine
3713:Boiler
3687:Surety
3531:Dental
3513:Health
3395:(MCDA)
3321:(LOPA)
2976:Hazard
2863:Threat
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2431:Pyrrho
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2322:
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2119:CODATA
2037:
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1959:
1949:
1924:
1914:
1859:
1818:
1665:
1404:Aporia
1384:Pyrrho
1331:Hamlet
1217:chance
965:within
896:, and
796:, the
732:, and
703:(2006)
268:Wisdom
258:Reason
203:Belief
182:Action
4489:Doubt
4347:Guild
4241:India
4236:China
4105:Claim
3911:Group
3891:Cyber
3869:Crime
3835:Other
3768:Title
3733:Flood
3332:(HRA)
3294:FMECA
3248:(PHA)
3132:Hedge
2389:S2CID
2316:23–41
2235:S2CID
2200:S2CID
2035:S2CID
1811:and
1788:links
1771:links
1663:S2CID
1453:fuzzy
1309:error
1275:error
1209:games
1131:sigma
1077:IUPAC
1070:0.000
1063:1.007
1055:1.007
1048:0.000
1041:1.007
1033:1.007
1025:apply
1009:10.50
985:0.005
981:10.50
761:Zadeh
263:Truth
63:Index
4320:§234
4042:Risk
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3578:Life
3422:COSO
2621:19.)
2590:ISBN
2564:ISBN
2538:ISBN
2512:ISBN
2477:ISBN
2381:PMID
2320:ISBN
2192:PMID
2137:2011
2125:NIST
2060:help
1992:ISBN
1957:OCLC
1947:ISBN
1922:PMID
1857:OCLC
1816:ISBN
1406:and
1394:and
1350:risk
1255:and
1097:−0.2
1095:+0.3
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1019:and
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1001:10.5
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840:and
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605:Risk
599:Risk
532:and
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195:and
4014:law
3953:Pet
3030:GRC
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