364:, and they absorb around 25% of human-caused emissions. Out of all oceans, the Southern Ocean plays the greatest role in carbon uptake, and on its own, it is responsible for around 40%. In 2000s, some research suggested that climate-driven changes to Southern Hemisphere winds were reducing the amount of carbon it absorbed, but subsequent research found that this carbon sink had been even stronger than estimated earlier, by some 14% to 18%. Ocean circulation is very important for this process, as it brings deep water to the surface, which has not been there for centuries and so was not in contact with anthropogenic emissions before. Thus, deep water's dissolved carbon concentrations are much lower than of the modern surface waters, and it absorbs a lot more carbon before it's transported back to the depths through downwelling.
296:
20:
408:
336:
198:
270:(AAIW). Around 22 ± 4 Sv of the total upwelled water in the overturning circulation is transformed into lighter waters in the upper cell. The overturning process of density surfaces is balanced through the baroclinic instability of the thermal wind currents. This instability flattens the density surfaces and the transport towards the poles, resulting in energetic, time-dependent eddying motions. The potential energy from the wind-driven circulation is then flattened out by eddies.
566:
315:, resulting in water with a higher salinity and density and therefore buoyancy loss. When ice melts there is a freshwater flow and exposure to the atmosphere. If water turns into ice, there is more salt in the water and less exposure to the atmosphere. Due to seasonal variations, there is a gain of buoyancy during summer and a loss of buoyancy in winter. This cold and dense water filled with salt is called Dense Shelf Water (DSW). DSW is then transformed into
521:
2273:
602:
timeframe over which such collapse may occur, and the regional impacts it would cause, much less equivalent research exists for the
Southern Ocean overturning circulation as of the early 2020s. There has been a suggestion that its collapse may occur between 1.7 °C (3.1 °F) and 3 °C (5.4 °F), but this estimate is much less certain than for many other tipping points.
218:(Sv) of deep water wells up to the surface in the Southern Ocean. This upwelled water is partly transformed to lighter water and denser water, respectively 22 ± 4 Sv and 5 ± 5 Sv. The densities of these waters change due to heat and buoyancy fluxes which result in upwelling in the upper cell and downwelling in the lower cell.
226:
upwelled in the
Southern Ocean. Circulation is a slow process - for instance, the upwelling of North Atlantic Deep Water from the depths of 1,000–3,500 m (3,281–11,483 ft) to the surface mixed layer takes 60–90 years for just half of the water mass, and some water travels to the surface for more than a century.
1655:
Ohshima, Kay I.; Fukamachi, Yasushi; Williams, Guy D.; Nihashi, Sohey; Roquet, Fabien; Kitade, Yujiro; Tamura, Takeshi; Hirano, Daisuke; Herraiz-Borreguero, Laura; Field, Iain; Hindell, Mark; Aoki, Shigeru; Wakatsuchi, Masaaki (2013). "Antarctic Bottom Water production by intense sea-ice formation in
499:
then mixes back into the
Southern Ocean, making its water fresher. This freshening of the Southern Ocean results in increased stratification and stabilization of its layers, and this has the single largest impact on the long-term properties of Southern Ocean circulation. These changes in the Southern
548:
currently disagree on whether the
Southern Ocean circulation would continue to respond to changes in SAM the way it does now, or if it will eventually adjust to them. As of early 2020s, their best, limited-confidence estimate is that the lower cell would continue to weaken, while the upper cell may
1797:
Long, Matthew C.; Stephens, Britton B.; McKain, Kathryn; Sweeney, Colm; Keeling, Ralph F.; Kort, Eric A.; Morgan, Eric J.; Bent, Jonathan D.; Chandra, Naveen; Chevallier, Frederic; Commane, Róisín; Daube, Bruce C.; Krummel, Paul B.; Loh, Zoë; Luijkx, Ingrid T.; Munro, David; Patra, Prabir; Peters,
601:
is only inhabited by 10% of the world's population, and the
Southern Ocean overturning circulation has historically received much less attention than the AMOC. Consequently, while multiple studies have set out to estimate the exact level of global warming which could result in AMOC collapsing, the
2774:
Bakker, P; Schmittner, A; Lenaerts, JT; Abe-Ouchi, A; Bi, D; van den Broeke, MR; Chan, WL; Hu, A; Beadling, RL; Marsland, SJ; Mernild, SH; Saenko, OA; Swingedouw, D; Sullivan, A; Yin, J (11 November 2016). "Fate of the
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: Strong decline under continued
225:
by compensating for the North
Atlantic downwelling by upwelling of North Atlantic Deep Water and connects the interior ocean to the surface. This upwelling is induced by the strong westerly winds that blow over the ACC. Observations suggest that approximately 80 percent of global deep water is
160:
evidence shows that the entire circulation had strongly weakened or outright collapsed before: some preliminary research suggests that such a collapse may become likely once global warming reaches levels between 1.7 °C (3.1 °F) and 3 °C (5.4 °F). However, there is far less
261:
forces. There is a net gain of buoyancy in the upper cell as a result of the freshening of the water caused by precipitation and the melting of sea ice during summer (on the
Southern Hemipshere). This buoyancy gain transforms the waters into lighter, less dense waters, such as
242:(CDW) to the surface. Zonal wind stress induces upwelling near the pole and downwelling at the equator due to the zonal surface-wind maximum. This wind-driven circulation is also called the Deacon cell and acts to overturn water supporting the thermal wind current of the
1195:
Ribeiro, N.; Herraiz-Borreguero, L.; Rintoul, S. R.; McMahon, C. R.; Hindell, M.; Harcourt, R.; Williams, G. (15 July 2021). "Warm
Modified Circumpolar Deep Water Intrusions Drive Ice Shelf Melt and Inhibit Dense Shelf Water Formation in Vincennes Bay, East Antarctica".
28:(ACC) and the formation of Antarctic Bottom Water beneath the sea ice of Antarctica due to buoyancy loss. The upper cell is depicted by the upwelling arrows north of the ACC and the formation of lighter Antarctic Intermediate water due to buoyancy gain north of the ACC.
282:
to close the circulation. To achieve this, vertical mixing is needed in the thermocline, which is not observed. Instead, dense water from sinking regions returned to the surface in nearly adiabatic pathways along density isopycnals, which was already written by
589:. It is possible that both circulations may not simply continue to weaken in response to increased warming and freshening, but eventually collapse to a much weaker state outright, in a way which would be difficult to reverse and constitute an example of
512:
per second), or 50-60% of its flow, while the lower cell has weakened by a similar amount, but because of its larger volume, these changes represent a 10-20% weakening. However, they were not fully caused by climate change, as the natural cycle of
106:. The strength of both halves had undergone substantial changes in the recent decades: the flow of the upper cell has increased by 50-60% since 1970s, while the lower cell has weakened by 10-20%. Some of this has been due to the natural cycle of
1239:
Chen, Jia-Jia; Swart, Neil C.; Beadling, Rebecca; Cheng, Xuhua; Hattermann, Tore; Jüling, André; Li, Qian; Marshall, John; Martin, Torge; Muilwijk, Morven; Pauling, Andrew G.; Purich, Ariaan; Smith, Inga J.; Thomas, Max (28 December 2023).
1974:
Le QuéRé, Corinne; RöDenbeck, Christian; Buitenhuis, Erik T.; Conway, Thomas J.; Langenfelds, Ray; Gomez, Antony; Labuschagne, Casper; Ramonet, Michel; Nakazawa, Takakiyo; Metzl, Nicolas; Gillett, Nathan; Heimann, Martin (22 June 2007).
629:. Reduced marine productivity would also mean that the ocean absorbs less carbon (though not within the 21st century), which could increase the ultimate long-term warming in response to anthropogenic emissions (thus raising the overall
557:
models - the most advanced generation available as of early 2020s. Further, the largest long-term role in the state of the circulation is played by
Antarctic meltwater, and Antarctic ice loss had been the least-certain aspect of future
137:
As the formation of dense and cold waters weakens near the coast while the flow of warm waters towards the coast strengthens, the surface waters become less likely to sink downwards and mix with the lower layers. Consequently,
1380:
Lenton, T. M.; Armstrong McKay, D.I.; Loriani, S.; Abrams, J.F.; Lade, S.J.; Donges, J.F.; Milkoreit, M.; Powell, T.; Smith, S.R.; Zimm, C.; Buxton, J.E.; Daube, Bruce C.; Krummel, Paul B.; Loh, Zoë; Luijkx, Ingrid T. (2023).
343:
at the surface had been decreasing, as more was pushed to the depths through the circulation. In the 2010s, however, the weakening circulation moved less carbon downwards, and its concentration started to increase across the
1401:
Tamsitt, Veronica; Drake, Henri F.; Morrison, Adele K.; Talley, Lynne D.; Dufour, Carolina O.; Gray, Alison R.; Griffies, Stephen M.; Mazloff, Matthew R.; Sarmiento, Jorge L.; Wang, Jinbo; Weijer, Wilbert (2 August 2017).
201:
3D representation of North Atlantic Deep Water upwelling in the Southern Ocean basin, which closes the connection between the Atlantic and Southern circulation, and takes place along the defined pathways with limited
214:. The upwelling in the upper cell is associated with mid-deep water that is brought to the surface, whereas the upwelling in the lower cell is linked to the fresh and abyssal waters around Antarctica. Around 27 ± 7
411:
Even under the most intense climate change scenario, which is currently considered unlikely, the Southern Ocean would continue to function as a strong sink in the 21st century, and take up an increasing amount of
1003:
23:
A schematic overview of the Southern Ocean overturning circulation. The arrows point in the direction of the water movement. The lower cell of the circulation is depicted by the upwelling arrows south of the
649:. However, the decline or an outright collapse of the AMOC would have similar but opposite impacts, and the two would counteract each other up to a point. Both impacts would also occur alongside the other
456:(ACC) is also warming faster than the global average. This warming directly affects the flow of warm and cold water masses which make up the overturning circulation, and it also has negative impacts on
605:
The impacts of Southern Ocean overturning circulation collapse have also been less closely studied, though scientists expect them to unfold over multiple centuries. A notable example is the loss of
725:
Schine, Casey M. S.; Alderkamp, Anne-Carlijn; van Dijken, Gert; Gerringa, Loes J. A.; Sergi, Sara; Laan, Patrick; van Haren, Hans; van de Poll, Willem H.; Arrigo, Kevin R. (22 February 2021).
1587:
Sverdrup, H. U. On vertical circulation in the ocean due to the action of the wind with application to conditions within the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. Discov. Rep. VII, 139–170 (1933).
1294:
Li, Qian; England, Matthew H.; Hogg, Andrew McC.; Rintoul, Stephen R.; Morrison, Adele K. (29 March 2023). "Abyssal ocean overturning slowdown and warming driven by Antarctic meltwater".
257:
overturning flow is from the north to the south in deep waters and from the south to the north at the ocean surface. At the surface deep waters are exposed to the atmosphere and surface
327:
and along the eastern coast of Antarctica. Around 5 ± 5 Sv of AABW is formed in the lower cell of the Southern Ocean circulation, which is around a third of the total AABW formation.
1026:
Stewart, K. D.; Hogg, A. McC.; England, M. H.; Waugh, D. W. (2 November 2020). "Response of the Southern Ocean Overturning Circulation to Extreme Southern Annular Mode Conditions".
504:, which already appears to have been observably weakened by the freshening, in spite of the limited recovery during 2010s. Since the 1970s, the upper cell has strengthened by 3-4
1146:
Silvano, Alessandro; Rintoul, Stephen Rich; Peña-Molino, Beatriz; Hobbs, William Richard; van Wijk, Esmee; Aoki, Shigeru; Tamura, Takeshi; Williams, Guy Darvall (18 April 2018).
500:
Ocean cause the upper cell circulation to speed up, accelerating the flow of major currents, while the lower cell circulation slows down, as it is dependent on the highly saline
966:
Zhou, Shenjie; Meijers, Andrew J. S.; Meredith, Michael P.; Abrahamsen, E. Povl; Holland, Paul R.; Silvano, Alessandro; Sallée, Jean-Baptiste; Østerhus, Svein (12 June 2023).
371:
through exposure to the atmosphere, partly compensating the carbon sink effect of the overturning circulation. Additionally, ocean upwelling brings mineral nutrients such as
920:
Lee, Sang-Ki; Lumpkin, Rick; Gomez, Fabian; Yeager, Stephen; Lopez, Hosmay; Takglis, Filippos; Dong, Shenfu; Aguiar, Wilton; Kim, Dongmin; Baringer, Molly (13 March 2023).
387:. At the same time, downwelling circulation moves much of dead phytoplankton and other organic matter to the depths before it could decompose at the surface and release CO
2196:, for instance, released a report last year stating that our current emissions trajectory had us headed for a 3°C warmer world, roughly in line with the middle scenario.
146:, with greater losses occurring afterwards. This slowdown would have important effects on the global climate due to the strength of the Southern Ocean as a global
679:
Liu, Y.; Moore, J. K.; Primeau, F.; Wang, W. L. (22 December 2022). "Reduced CO2 uptake and growing nutrient sequestration from slowing overturning circulation".
2217:
Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
165:. Even if initiated in the near future, the circulation's collapse is unlikely to be complete until close to 2300, Similarly, impacts such as the reduction in
791:
94:
Southern ocean overturning circulation itself consists of two parts, the upper and the lower cell. The smaller upper cell is most strongly affected by
597:
evidence for the overturning circulation being substantially weaker than now during past periods that were both warmer and colder than now. However,
311:
The lower cell is driven by freshwater fluxes where sea-ice formation and melting play an important role. The formation of sea-ice is accompanied by
1645:
Williams, G. et al. Antarctic bottom water from the adélie and george v land coast, east antarctica (140–149°e). J. Geophys. Res. Oceans 115 (2010)
154:
have not been strongly lowered, but the exact year depends on the status of the circulation more than any factor other than the overall emissions.
2506:
Shi, Jia-Rui; Talley, Lynne D.; Xie, Shang-Ping; Peng, Qihua; Liu, Wei (2021-11-29). "Ocean warming and accelerating Southern Ocean zonal flow".
1500:
Gill, A.E.; Green, J.S.A.; Simmons, A.J. (1974). "Energy partition in the large-scale ocean circulation and the production of mid-ocean eddies".
63:) at specific points. Thermohaline circulation transports not only massive volumes of warm and cold water across the planet, but also dissolved
633:) and/or prolong the time warming persists before it starts declining on the geological timescales. There is also expected to be a decline in
569:
Evidence suggests that the Antarctic bottom water requires a temperature range close to current conditions to be at full strength. During the
2339:. Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Vol. 2021. Cambridge University Press. pp. 1239–1241.
650:
582:
222:
52:
814:
Marshall, John; Speer, Kevin (26 February 2012). "Closure of the meridional overturning circulation through Southern Ocean upwelling".
488:
have not been strongly lowered) depends on the status of the circulation more than any other factor besides the emissions themselves.
2329:; Xiao, C.; Aðalgeirsdóttir, G.; Drijfhout, S.S.; Edwards, T.L.; Golledge, N.R.; Hemer, M.; Kopp, R.E.; Krinner, G.; Mix, A. (2021).
2200:
predicts 2.5 to 2.9°C of warming based on current policies and action, with pledges and government agreements taking this to 2.1°C.
1353:
2834:
1535:
St. Laurent, L. C.; Ledwell, J. R.; Girton, J. B.; Toole, J. M. (2011). "Diapycnal Mixing in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current".
367:
On the other hand, regions where deep warm circumpolar carbon rich waters are brought to the surface through upwelling, outgas CO
549:
strengthen by around 20% over the 21st century. A key reason for the uncertainty is the poor and inconsistent representation of
2192:"The IPCC doesn't make projections about which of these scenarios is more likely, but other researchers and modellers can. The
654:
2333:. In Masson-Delmotte, V.; Zhai, P.; Pirani, A.; Connors, S.L.; Péan, C.; Berger, S.; Caud, N.; Chen, Y.; Goldfarb, L. (eds.).
554:
2289:
2219:. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, New York, US, pp. 3−32, doi:10.1017/9781009157896.001.
532:(SAM), which has been spending more and more years in its positive phase due to climate change (as well as the aftermath of
1461:"Closure of the Global Overturning Circulation Through the Indian, Pacific, and Southern Oceans: Schematics and Transports"
590:
162:
1148:"Freshening by glacial meltwater enhances the melting of ice shelves and reduces the formation of Antarctic Bottom Water"
1004:"Slowing deep Southern Ocean current may be linked to natural climate cycle—but melting Antarctic ice is still a concern"
433:
2557:
Aoki, S.; Yamazaki, K.; Hirano, D.; Katsumata, K.; Shimada, K.; Kitade, Y.; Sasaki, H.; Murase, H. (15 September 2020).
55:(AMOC). This circulation operates when certain currents send warm, oxygenated, nutrient-poor water into the deep ocean (
2352:
98:
due to its proximity to the surface, while the behaviour of the larger lower cell is defined by the temperature and
514:
107:
284:
2026:"Dynamically and Observationally Constrained Estimates of Water-Mass Distributions and Ages in the Global Ocean"
577:
and the overturning circulation was much weaker than now. It was also weaker during the periods warmer than now.
1799:
1798:
Wouter; Ramonet, Michel; Rödenbeck, Christian; Stavert, Ann; Tans, Pieter; Wofsy, Steven C. (2 December 2021).
2193:
922:"Human-induced changes in the global meridional overturning circulation are emerging from the Southern Ocean"
453:
243:
25:
2075:"The impact of Southern Ocean residual upwelling on atmospheric CO2 on centennial and millennial timescales"
2212:
267:
480:
consistently show that the year when global warming will reach 2 °C (3.6 °F) (inevitable in all
452:, the temperature in the upper layer of the ocean has warmed 1 °C (1.8 °F) since 1955, and the
2719:"No detectable Weddell Sea Antarctic Bottom Water export during the Last and Penultimate Glacial Maximum"
1242:"Reduced Deep Convection and Bottom Water Formation Due To Antarctic Meltwater in a Multi-Model Ensemble"
858:
Pellichero, Violaine; Sallée, Jean-Baptiste; Chapman, Christopher C.; Downes, Stephanie M. (3 May 2018).
441:
2433:
Haumann, F. Alexander; Gruber, Nicolas; Münnich, Matthias; Frenger, Ivy; Kern, Stefan (September 2016).
206:
Southern Ocean overturning circulation consists of two cells in the Southern Ocean, which are driven by
142:
increases. One study suggests that the circulation would lose half its strength by 2050 under the worst
2559:"Reversal of freshening trend of Antarctic Bottom Water in the Australian-Antarctic Basin during 2010s"
2370:"Intense ocean freshening from melting glacier around the Antarctica during early twenty-first century"
1007:
2657:"Marine ice sheet instability amplifies and skews uncertainty in projections of future sea-level rise"
609:
from Antarctic bottom water diminishing ocean productivity and ultimately the state of Southern Ocean
491:
Greater warming of this ocean water increases ice loss from Antarctica, and also generates more fresh
150:
and heat sink. For instance, global warming will reach 2 °C (3.6 °F) in all scenarios where
2174:
1088:"Stratification constrains future heat and carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean between 30°S and 55°S"
528:
Additionally, the main controlling pattern of the extratropical Southern Hemisphere's climate is the
792:"NOAA Scientists Detect a Reshaping of the Meridional Overturning Circulation in the Southern Ocean"
524:
Since the 1970s, the upper cell of the circulation has strengthened, while the lower cell weakened.
485:
429:
380:
340:
151:
80:
68:
44:
481:
263:
143:
860:"The southern ocean meridional overturning in the sea-ice sector is driven by freshwater fluxes"
2197:
1751:
Friedlingstein, Pierre; O'Sullivan, Michael; Jones, Matthew W.; et al. (5 December 2023).
501:
316:
239:
103:
585:(AMOC), which is also affected by the ocean warming and by meltwater flows from the declining
420:
of heat per every additional degree of warming than it does now (right), as well as a smaller
2606:
Gunn, Kathryn L.; Rintoul, Stephen R.; England, Matthew H.; Bowen, Melissa M. (25 May 2023).
1857:
529:
357:
295:
115:
2073:
Lauderdale, Jonathan M.; Williams, Richard G.; Munday, David R.; Marshall, David P. (2017).
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2037:
1930:
1872:
1811:
1707:
1665:
1610:
1544:
1509:
1415:
1357:
1303:
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1205:
1099:
1086:
Bourgeois, Timothée; Goris, Nadine; Schwinger, Jörg; Tjiputra, Jerry F. (17 January 2022).
1035:
933:
871:
823:
738:
570:
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246:(ACC) and creating a storage of potential energy. This upper cell process is also known as
139:
84:
2229:
von Schuckmann, K.; Cheng, L.; Palmer, M. D.; Hansen, J.; et al. (7 September 2020).
8:
646:
638:
630:
598:
586:
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461:
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back to the atmosphere. This so-called biological pump is so important that a completely
304:
174:
170:
127:
19:
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2734:
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2519:
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1951:
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1307:
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1209:
1103:
1039:
937:
875:
827:
742:
727:"Massive Southern Ocean phytoplankton bloom fed by iron of possible hydrothermal origin"
2810:
2751:
2718:
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2583:
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2539:
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2410:
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2006:
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1628:
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1436:
1403:
1327:
1172:
1147:
1120:
1087:
1061:
968:"Slowdown of Antarctic Bottom Water export driven by climatic wind and sea-ice changes"
892:
859:
759:
726:
704:
622:
437:
407:
182:
119:
2608:"Recent reduced abyssal overturning and ventilation in the Australian Antarctic Basin"
2814:
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2637:
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2543:
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2492:
2480:
2472:
2415:
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2348:
2179:
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1998:
1956:
1900:
1888:
1839:
1827:
1733:
1696:"A deep-learning estimate of the decadal trends in the Southern Ocean carbon storage"
1632:
1521:
1441:
1331:
1319:
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1177:
1125:
1065:
897:
764:
708:
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2110:
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2010:
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2738:
2717:
Huang, Huang; Gutjahr, Marcus; Eisenhauer, Anton; Kuhn, Gerhard (22 January 2020).
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Zemskova, Varvara E.; He, Tai-Long; Wan, Zirui; Grisouard, Nicolas (13 July 2022).
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941:
887:
879:
831:
754:
746:
688:
626:
335:
186:
533:
449:
395:
Southern Ocean, where this pump would be absent, would also be a net source of CO
312:
247:
2336:
Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I
2742:
2632:
2607:
2574:
2527:
2467:
2393:
2277:
2265:
2150:
2125:
1719:
1427:
1404:"Spiraling pathways of global deep waters to the surface of the Southern Ocean"
1315:
1111:
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967:
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921:
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559:
445:
413:
384:
349:
123:
111:
88:
2434:
2344:
2255:
2230:
2091:
2074:
1858:"Southern Ocean anthropogenic carbon sink constrained by sea surface salinity"
1769:
1752:
197:
2828:
2641:
2535:
2476:
2401:
2326:
2050:
1275:
1225:
634:
545:
537:
495:, at a rate of 1100-1500 billion tons (GT) per year. This meltwater from the
477:
444:
since 1971. Since 2005, from 67% to 98% of this increase has occurred in the
376:
166:
2681:
2025:
1993:
1976:
1942:
1884:
1823:
1477:
1460:
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The missing-mixing paradox assumes that dense water is upwelled through the
2760:
2700:
2592:
2484:
2419:
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2002:
1960:
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1831:
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1323:
1181:
1163:
1129:
901:
768:
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59:), while the cold, oxygen-limited, nutrient-rich water travels upwards (or
1919:"Biogenic carbon pool production maintains the Southern Ocean carbon sink"
1556:
1002:
Silvano, Alessandro; Meijers, Andrew J. S.; Zhou, Shenjie (17 June 2023).
2796:
2435:"Sea-ice transport driving Southern Ocean salinity and its recent trends"
2368:
Pan, Xianliang L.; Li, Bofeng F.; Watanabe, Yutaka W. (10 January 2022).
2101:
1977:"Saturation of the Southern Ocean CO 2 Sink Due to Recent Climate Change"
1917:
Huang, Yibin; Fassbender, Andrea J.; Bushinsky, Seth M. (26 April 2023).
1623:
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1241:
1217:
1047:
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211:
147:
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has also played a substantial role in both trends, as it had altered the
56:
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1779:
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1056:
614:
541:
254:
235:
2655:
Robel, Alexander A.; Seroussi, Hélène; Roe, Gerard H. (23 July 2019).
2334:
2216:
1800:"Strong Southern Ocean carbon uptake evident in airborne observations"
1354:"Landmark study projects 'dramatic' changes to Southern Ocean by 2050"
700:
1856:
Terhaar, Jens; Frölicher, Thomas L.; Joos, Fortunat (28 April 2021).
1677:
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835:
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60:
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2499:
2324:
606:
505:
320:
258:
215:
99:
72:
1379:
2773:
1973:
1750:
724:
457:
392:
234:
The upper cell is driven by wind generated flow, a result of the
2072:
2228:
1654:
1085:
465:
64:
1599:"Mapping of sea ice production for Antarctic coastal polynyas"
1145:
416:(left) and heat (middle). However, it would take up a smaller
79:. Thus, both halves of the circulation have a great effect on
2276:
Text was copied from this source, which is available under a
2272:
1534:
965:
857:
348:
The ocean is in normally in equilibrium with the atmospheric
48:
2231:"Heat stored in the Earth system: where does the energy go?"
2556:
2432:
795:
618:
375:
from the depths to the surface, which are then consumed by
372:
95:
76:
2716:
2514:(12). Springer Science and Business Media LLC: 1090–1097.
1400:
221:
The Southern Ocean plays a key role in the closure of the
47:, which connects different water basins across the global
2126:"Emissions – the 'business as usual' story is misleading"
1796:
1597:
Tamura, Takeshi; Ohshima, Kay I.; Nihashi, Sohey (2008).
1916:
2605:
1025:
189:, are also expected to unfold over multiple centuries.
2278:
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
1693:
1238:
997:
995:
919:
2320:
2318:
2316:
2314:
2312:
2310:
2117:
1855:
1596:
1293:
573:(a cold period), it was too weak to flow out of the
379:
and allow them to increase their numbers, enhancing
678:
2124:Hausfather, Zeke; Peters, Glen (29 January 2020).
1001:
992:
464:, (which is highly reflective and so elevates the
2307:
2222:
432:cause increased warming, one of the most notable
161:certainty than with the estimates for most other
2826:
2654:
2505:
2205:
2123:
1499:
1081:
1079:
1077:
1075:
853:
851:
849:
847:
845:
16:Southern half of the global ocean current system
2661:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
1923:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
1689:
1687:
87:, and so play an essential role in the Earth's
51:. Its better-known northern counterpart is the
2023:
1851:
1849:
1396:
1394:
1392:
1141:
1139:
809:
807:
805:
2367:
1502:Deep Sea Research and Oceanographic Abstracts
1072:
1021:
1019:
1017:
842:
813:
352:concentration. The increase in atmospheric CO
339:In the 1990s and 2000s, the concentration of
118:weather pattern, while the massive growth of
2712:
2710:
2166:
1912:
1910:
1684:
1347:
1345:
1343:
1341:
720:
718:
651:effects of climate change on the water cycle
476:and peripheral glaciers. For these reasons,
440:, which accounted for over 90% of the total
383:and boosting the carbon sink due to greater
1846:
1792:
1790:
1389:
1375:
1373:
1371:
1369:
1367:
1136:
802:
583:Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
223:Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
53:Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
37:Southern Meridional overturning circulation
1014:
961:
959:
957:
786:
784:
782:
780:
778:
2804:
2750:
2707:
2690:
2680:
2631:
2582:
2466:
2409:
2282:
2264:
2254:
2149:
2100:
2090:
2049:
1992:
1950:
1907:
1778:
1768:
1727:
1622:
1564:
1476:
1435:
1338:
1289:
1287:
1285:
1265:
1171:
1119:
1055:
983:
945:
915:
913:
911:
891:
758:
715:
674:
672:
670:
544:, freshening the Southern Ocean further.
402:
273:
2550:
2331:"Ocean, Cryosphere and Sea Level Change"
2172:
2024:Devries, Tim; Primeau, François (2011).
1787:
1364:
581:Similar processes are taking place with
564:
519:
406:
334:
294:
196:
18:
1744:
1198:Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
954:
775:
645:, with a corresponding increase in the
307:in driving the lower-cell circulation.
181:in the Southern Ocean with a potential
173:, with a corresponding increase in the
2827:
1458:
1282:
926:Communications Earth & Environment
908:
667:
655:effects of climate change on fisheries
330:
134:dilutes salty Antarctic bottom water.
33:Southern Ocean overturning circulation
1383:The Global Tipping Points Report 2023
1351:
536:), which means more warming and more
591:tipping points in the climate system
517:had also played an important role.
508:(Sv; represents a flow of 1 million
163:tipping points in the climate system
434:effects of climate change on oceans
43:) is the southern half of a global
13:
14:
2846:
360:had turned the oceans into a net
126:has increased the melting of the
41:Antarctic overturning circulation
2775:warming and Greenland melting".
2271:
2173:Phiddian, Ellen (5 April 2022).
2030:Journal of Physical Oceanography
1537:Journal of Physical Oceanography
515:Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation
468:of Earth's surface), as well as
108:Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation
2767:
2648:
2599:
2426:
2361:
2066:
2017:
1967:
1648:
1639:
1590:
1581:
1528:
1493:
1452:
1385:(Report). University of Exeter.
1232:
1188:
540:over the ocean due to stronger
285:Harald Sverdrup (oceanographer)
2835:Currents of the Southern Ocean
562:projections for a long time.
35:(sometimes referred to as the
1:
2194:Australian Academy of Science
1352:Logan, Tyne (29 March 2023).
660:
613:, potentially leading to the
454:Antarctic Circumpolar Current
319:(AABW), originating from the
290:
244:Antarctic Circumpolar Current
238:, that brings water from the
229:
26:Antarctic Circumpolar Current
2777:Geophysical Research Letters
1603:Geophysical Research Letters
1522:10.1016/0011-7471(74)90010-2
1246:Geophysical Research Letters
1028:Geophysical Research Letters
268:Antarctic Intermediate Water
7:
2290:"Impacts of climate change"
2175:"Explainer: IPCC Scenarios"
1753:"Global Carbon Budget 2023"
1656:the Cape Darnley polynya".
192:
10:
2851:
2743:10.1038/s41467-020-14302-3
2633:10.1038/s41558-023-01667-8
2575:10.1038/s41598-020-71290-6
2528:10.1038/s41558-021-01212-5
2394:10.1038/s41598-021-04231-6
2151:10.1038/d41586-020-00177-3
1720:10.1038/s41467-022-31560-5
1428:10.1038/s41467-017-00197-0
1316:10.1038/s41586-023-05762-w
1112:10.1038/s41467-022-27979-5
985:10.1038/s41558-023-01667-8
947:10.1038/s43247-023-00727-3
884:10.1038/s41467-018-04101-2
751:10.1038/s41467-021-21339-5
693:10.1038/s41558-022-01555-7
2345:10.1017/9781009157896.011
2256:10.5194/essd-12-2013-2020
2235:Earth System Science Data
2092:10.1007/s00382-016-3163-y
1770:10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023
1757:Earth System Science Data
2213:Summary for Policymakers
2051:10.1175/JPO-D-10-05011.1
486:greenhouse gas emissions
482:climate change scenarios
430:greenhouse gas emissions
381:ocean primary production
341:dissolved organic carbon
152:greenhouse gas emissions
69:dissolved organic carbon
45:thermohaline circulation
2783:(23): 12, 252–12, 260.
2682:10.1073/pnas.1904822116
1994:10.1126/science.1136188
1943:10.1073/pnas.2217909120
1885:10.1126/science.abi4355
1824:10.1126/science.abi4355
1478:10.5670/oceanog.2013.07
264:Subantarctic Mode Water
144:climate change scenario
2294:Discovering Antarctica
2198:Climate Action Tracker
1459:Talley, Lynne (2013).
1164:10.1126/sciadv.aap9467
578:
525:
502:Antarctic bottom water
425:
403:Climate change impacts
345:
317:Antarctic Bottom Water
308:
274:Missing-mixing paradox
240:Circumpolar Deep Water
203:
104:Antarctic bottom water
29:
2723:Nature Communications
2612:Nature Climate Change
2508:Nature Climate Change
1700:Nature Communications
1557:10.1175/2010JPO4557.1
1408:Nature Communications
1092:Nature Communications
1034:(22): e2020GL091103.
972:Nature Climate Change
864:Nature Communications
731:Nature Communications
681:Nature Climate Change
568:
530:Southern Annular Mode
523:
410:
358:Industrial Revolution
338:
299:The role of seasonal
298:
200:
116:Southern Annular Mode
81:Earth's energy budget
22:
2797:10.1002/2016GL070457
1624:10.1029/2007GL032903
1267:10.1029/2023GL106492
1218:10.1029/2020JC016998
1048:10.1029/2020GL091103
571:Last Glacial Maximum
551:ocean stratification
140:ocean stratification
128:Antarctic ice sheets
85:oceanic carbon cycle
2789:2016GeoRL..4312252B
2735:2020NatCo..11..424H
2673:2019PNAS..11614887R
2667:(30): 14887–14892.
2624:2023NatCC..13..537G
2520:2021NatCC..11.1090S
2468:20.500.11850/120143
2459:10.1038/nature19101
2451:2016Natur.537...89H
2386:2022NatSR..12..383P
2266:20.500.11850/443809
2247:2020ESSD...12.2013V
2142:2020Natur.577..618H
2042:2011JPO....41.2381D
1987:(5832): 1735–1738.
1935:2023PNAS..12017909H
1929:(18): e2217909120.
1877:2021Sci...374.1275L
1816:2021Sci...374.1275L
1810:(6572): 1275–1280.
1712:2022NatCo..13.4056Z
1670:2013NatGe...6..235O
1615:2008GeoRL..35.7606T
1549:2011JPO....41..241L
1514:1974DSRA...21..499G
1420:2017NatCo...8..172T
1308:2023Natur.615..841L
1258:2023GeoRL..5006492C
1210:2021JGRC..12616998R
1104:2022NatCo..13..340B
1040:2020GeoRL..4791103S
938:2023ComEE...4...69L
876:2018NatCo...9.1789P
828:2012NatGe...5..171M
743:2021NatCo..12.1211S
647:Northern Hemisphere
639:Southern Hemisphere
631:climate sensitivity
617:of some species of
599:Southern Hemisphere
587:Greenland ice sheet
497:Antarctic ice sheet
462:Southern Hemisphere
436:is the increase in
331:Global carbon cycle
305:Antarctic ice sheet
171:Southern Hemisphere
2563:Scientific Reports
2374:Scientific Reports
2085:(5–6): 1611–1631.
579:
526:
438:ocean heat content
426:
346:
309:
204:
177:, or a decline of
120:ocean heat content
30:
2036:(12): 2381–2401.
1871:(18): 1275–1280.
1763:(12): 5301–5369.
1658:Nature Geoscience
1302:(7954): 841–847.
816:Nature Geoscience
627:marine ecosystems
187:marine ecosystems
130:, and this fresh
2842:
2819:
2818:
2808:
2771:
2765:
2764:
2754:
2714:
2705:
2704:
2694:
2684:
2652:
2646:
2645:
2635:
2603:
2597:
2596:
2586:
2554:
2548:
2547:
2503:
2497:
2496:
2470:
2430:
2424:
2423:
2413:
2365:
2359:
2358:
2325:Fox-Kemper, B.;
2322:
2305:
2304:
2302:
2300:
2286:
2280:
2275:
2270:
2268:
2258:
2241:(3): 2013–2041.
2226:
2220:
2209:
2203:
2202:
2189:
2187:
2170:
2164:
2163:
2153:
2136:(7792): 618–20.
2121:
2115:
2114:
2104:
2094:
2079:Climate Dynamics
2070:
2064:
2063:
2053:
2021:
2015:
2014:
1996:
1971:
1965:
1964:
1954:
1914:
1905:
1904:
1865:Science Advances
1862:
1853:
1844:
1843:
1794:
1785:
1784:
1782:
1772:
1748:
1742:
1741:
1731:
1691:
1682:
1681:
1678:10.1038/ngeo1738
1652:
1646:
1643:
1637:
1636:
1626:
1594:
1588:
1585:
1579:
1578:
1568:
1532:
1526:
1525:
1497:
1491:
1490:
1480:
1456:
1450:
1449:
1439:
1398:
1387:
1386:
1377:
1362:
1361:
1349:
1336:
1335:
1291:
1280:
1279:
1269:
1236:
1230:
1229:
1192:
1186:
1185:
1175:
1152:Science Advances
1143:
1134:
1133:
1123:
1083:
1070:
1069:
1059:
1023:
1012:
1011:
1008:The Conversation
999:
990:
989:
987:
963:
952:
951:
949:
917:
906:
905:
895:
855:
840:
839:
836:10.1038/ngeo1391
811:
800:
799:
798:. 29 March 2023.
788:
773:
772:
762:
722:
713:
712:
676:
472:of Antarctica's
428:As human-caused
2850:
2849:
2845:
2844:
2843:
2841:
2840:
2839:
2825:
2824:
2823:
2822:
2772:
2768:
2715:
2708:
2653:
2649:
2604:
2600:
2555:
2551:
2504:
2500:
2445:(7618): 89–92.
2431:
2427:
2366:
2362:
2355:
2323:
2308:
2298:
2296:
2288:
2287:
2283:
2227:
2223:
2210:
2206:
2185:
2183:
2171:
2167:
2122:
2118:
2071:
2067:
2022:
2018:
1972:
1968:
1915:
1908:
1860:
1854:
1847:
1795:
1788:
1749:
1745:
1692:
1685:
1653:
1649:
1644:
1640:
1595:
1591:
1586:
1582:
1533:
1529:
1498:
1494:
1457:
1453:
1399:
1390:
1378:
1365:
1350:
1339:
1292:
1283:
1237:
1233:
1193:
1189:
1158:(4): eaap9467.
1144:
1137:
1084:
1073:
1024:
1015:
1000:
993:
964:
955:
918:
909:
856:
843:
812:
803:
790:
789:
776:
723:
716:
677:
668:
663:
641:countries like
534:ozone depletion
450:West Antarctica
405:
398:
390:
370:
355:
333:
313:brine rejection
293:
276:
248:Ekman transport
232:
195:
17:
12:
11:
5:
2848:
2838:
2837:
2821:
2820:
2766:
2706:
2647:
2618:(6): 537–544.
2598:
2549:
2498:
2425:
2360:
2353:
2306:
2281:
2221:
2204:
2165:
2116:
2065:
2016:
1966:
1906:
1845:
1786:
1743:
1683:
1647:
1638:
1589:
1580:
1543:(1): 241–246.
1527:
1508:(7): 499–528.
1492:
1451:
1388:
1363:
1337:
1281:
1231:
1187:
1135:
1071:
1013:
991:
953:
907:
841:
822:(3): 171–180.
801:
774:
714:
665:
664:
662:
659:
560:sea level rise
546:Climate models
478:climate models
446:Southern Ocean
442:global heating
414:carbon dioxide
404:
401:
396:
388:
385:photosynthesis
368:
353:
350:carbon dioxide
332:
329:
292:
289:
275:
272:
231:
228:
194:
191:
124:Southern Ocean
112:climate change
89:climate system
15:
9:
6:
4:
3:
2:
2847:
2836:
2833:
2832:
2830:
2816:
2812:
2807:
2802:
2798:
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2790:
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2770:
2762:
2758:
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2748:
2744:
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2736:
2732:
2728:
2724:
2720:
2713:
2711:
2702:
2698:
2693:
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2683:
2678:
2674:
2670:
2666:
2662:
2658:
2651:
2643:
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2634:
2629:
2625:
2621:
2617:
2613:
2609:
2602:
2594:
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2580:
2576:
2572:
2568:
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2560:
2553:
2545:
2541:
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2533:
2529:
2525:
2521:
2517:
2513:
2509:
2502:
2494:
2490:
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2482:
2478:
2474:
2469:
2464:
2460:
2456:
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2448:
2444:
2440:
2436:
2429:
2421:
2417:
2412:
2407:
2403:
2399:
2395:
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2383:
2379:
2375:
2371:
2364:
2356:
2354:9781009157896
2350:
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2328:
2321:
2319:
2317:
2315:
2313:
2311:
2295:
2291:
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2279:
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2267:
2262:
2257:
2252:
2248:
2244:
2240:
2236:
2232:
2225:
2218:
2214:
2208:
2201:
2199:
2195:
2182:
2181:
2176:
2169:
2161:
2157:
2152:
2147:
2143:
2139:
2135:
2131:
2127:
2120:
2112:
2108:
2103:
2102:1721.1/107158
2098:
2093:
2088:
2084:
2080:
2076:
2069:
2061:
2057:
2052:
2047:
2043:
2039:
2035:
2031:
2027:
2020:
2012:
2008:
2004:
2000:
1995:
1990:
1986:
1982:
1978:
1970:
1962:
1958:
1953:
1948:
1944:
1940:
1936:
1932:
1928:
1924:
1920:
1913:
1911:
1902:
1898:
1894:
1890:
1886:
1882:
1878:
1874:
1870:
1866:
1859:
1852:
1850:
1841:
1837:
1833:
1829:
1825:
1821:
1817:
1813:
1809:
1805:
1801:
1793:
1791:
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1776:
1771:
1766:
1762:
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1739:
1735:
1730:
1725:
1721:
1717:
1713:
1709:
1705:
1701:
1697:
1690:
1688:
1679:
1675:
1671:
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1663:
1659:
1651:
1642:
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1620:
1616:
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1600:
1593:
1584:
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1523:
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1511:
1507:
1503:
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1470:
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1368:
1359:
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1344:
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1329:
1325:
1321:
1317:
1313:
1309:
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1301:
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1277:
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1268:
1263:
1259:
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1243:
1235:
1227:
1223:
1219:
1215:
1211:
1207:
1203:
1199:
1191:
1183:
1179:
1174:
1169:
1165:
1161:
1157:
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1149:
1142:
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1127:
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1117:
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1097:
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1080:
1078:
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1063:
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1041:
1037:
1033:
1029:
1022:
1020:
1018:
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1005:
998:
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986:
981:
977:
973:
969:
962:
960:
958:
948:
943:
939:
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931:
927:
923:
916:
914:
912:
903:
899:
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889:
885:
881:
877:
873:
869:
865:
861:
854:
852:
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