24:
432:, the analyst applies evidence against each hypothesis in an attempt to disprove as many theories as possible. Some evidence will have greater "diagnosticity" than other evidence—that is, some will be more helpful in judging the relative likelihood of alternative hypotheses. This step is the most important, according to Heuer. Instead of looking at one hypothesis and all the evidence ("working down" the matrix), the analyst is encouraged to consider one piece of evidence at a time, and examine it against all possible hypotheses ("working across" the matrix).
635:
23:
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According to social constructivist critics, ACH also fails to stress sufficiently (or to address as a method) the problematic nature of the initial formation of the hypotheses used to create its grid. There is considerable evidence, for example, that in addition to any bureaucratic, psychological, or
589:
For example, two tested hypotheses could be that Iraq has WMD or Iraq does not have WMD. If the evidence showed that it is more likely there are WMDs in Iraq then two new hypotheses could be formulated: WMD are in
Baghdad or WMD are in Mosul. Or perhaps, the analyst may need to know what type of WMD
526:
analysis is employed to isolate assumptions implicit in the evaluation of paths in, or conclusions of, particular hypotheses. As evidence in the form of observations of states or assumptions is observed, they can become the subject of separate validation. Should an assumption or necessary state be
438:
Inconsistency – The analyst then seeks to draw tentative conclusions about the relative likelihood of each hypothesis. Less consistency implies a lower likelihood. The least consistent hypotheses are eliminated. While the matrix generates a definitive mathematical total for each hypothesis, the
453:
Conclusions and evaluation – Finally, the analyst provides the decisionmaker with his or her conclusions, as well as a summary of alternatives that were considered and why they were rejected. The analyst also identifies milestones in the process that can serve as indicators in future
446:, which weighs how the conclusion would be affected if key evidence or arguments were wrong, misleading, or subject to different interpretations. The validity of key evidence and the consistency of important arguments are double-checked to assure the soundness of the conclusion's
602:
to ACH. A generalization of this concept to a distributed community of analysts lead to the development of CACHE (the
Collaborative ACH Environment), which introduced the concept of a Bayes (or Bayesian) community. The work by Akram and Wang applies paradigms from
359:, in the 1970s for use by the Agency. ACH is used by analysts in various fields who make judgments that entail a high risk of error in reasoning. ACH aims to help an analyst overcome, or at least minimize, some of the cognitive limitations that make prescient
585:
The structured analysis of competing hypotheses offers analysts an improvement over the limitations of the original ACH. The SACH maximizes the possible hypotheses by allowing the analyst to split one hypothesis into two complex ones.
535:
political biases that may affect hypothesis generation, there are also factors of culture and identity at work. These socially constructed factors may restrict or pre-screen which hypotheses end up being considered, and then reinforce
839:
621:, a formal mathematical methodology that explicitly deals with uncertainty. This methodology forms the basis of the Sheba technology that is used in Veriluma's intelligence assessment software.
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Iraq has; the new hypotheses could be that Iraq has biological WMD, Iraq has chemical WMD and Iraq has nuclear WMD. By giving the ACH structure, the analyst is able to give a nuanced estimate.
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ACH misconceives the nature of the relationship between items of evidence and hypotheses by supposing that items of evidence are, on their own, consistent or inconsistent with hypotheses.
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1146:
Shrager, J., et al. (2009) Soccer science and the Bayes community: Exploring the cognitive implications of modern scientific communication. Topics in
Cognitive Science, 2(1), 53–72.
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Especially in intelligence, both governmental and business, analysts must always be aware that the opponent(s) is intelligent and may be generating information intended to
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Refinement – The analyst reviews the findings, identifies any gaps, and collects any additional evidence needed to refute as many of the remaining hypotheses as possible.
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745:
DECIDE was developed by the analytic research firm SSS Research, Inc. DECIDE not only allows analysts to manipulate ACH, but it provides multiple visualization products.
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Other work focuses less on probabilistic methods and more on cognitive and visualization extensions to ACH, as discussed by Madsen and Hicks. DECIDE, discussed under
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A few online and downloadable software tools help automate the ACH process. These programs leave a visual trail of evidence and allow the analyst to weigh evidence.
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739:(PARC) in collaboration with Richards J. Heuer, Jr. It is a standard ACH program that allows analysts to enter evidence and rate its credibility and relevance.
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Hypothesis – The first step of the process is to identify all potential hypotheses, preferably using a group of analysts with different perspectives to
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649:
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ACH treats the hypothesis set as "flat", i.e. a mere list, and so is unable to relate evidence to hypotheses at the appropriate levels of abstraction
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ACH demands that the analyst makes too many discrete judgments, a great many of which contribute little if anything to discerning the best hypothesis
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analyst must use their judgment to make the final conclusion. The result of the ACH analysis itself must not overrule analysts' own judgments.
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Valtorta, Marco; et al. (May 2005), "Extending Heuer's
Analysis of Competing Hypotheses Method to Support Complex Decision Analysis",
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Evidence – The analyst then lists evidence and arguments (including assumptions and logical deductions) for and against each hypothesis.
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the possibilities. The process discourages the analyst from choosing one "likely" hypothesis and using evidence to prove its accuracy.
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sheet that implements the scoring and weighting methodology of ACH, more specifically the weighted inconsistency counting algorithm.
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514:. Since deception often is the result of a cognitive trap, Elsaesser and Stech use state-based hierarchical plan recognition (see
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Akram, Shaikh
Muhammad; Wang, Jiaxin (23 August 2006), "Investigative Data Mining: Connecting the dots to disconnect them",
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remains the goal of researchers, tool-builders, and analysts in industry, academia and government. Their domains include
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48:
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Madsen, Fredrik H.; Hicks, David L. (23 August 2006), "Investigating the
Cognitive Effects of Externalization Tools",
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Elsaesser, Christopher; Stech, Frank J. (2007), "Detecting
Deception", in Kott, Alexander; McEneaney, William (eds.),
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481:. This allows the decisionmaker or other analysts to see the sequence of rules and data that led to the conclusion.
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ACH cannot represent subordinate argumentation, i.e. the argumentation bearing up on a piece of evidence.
370:, but it was first described in relatively informal terms. Producing the best available information from
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518:) to generate causal explanations of observations. The resulting hypotheses are converted to a dynamic
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It can be cumbersome for an analyst to manage a large database with multiple pieces of evidence.
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Since the ACH requires the analyst to construct a matrix, the evidence and hypotheses can be
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1072:"Structured Analysis of Competing Hypotheses: Improving a Tested Intelligence Methodology"
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Field
Evaluation in the Intelligence and Counterintelligence Context: Workshop Summary
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The evidence used in the matrix is static and therefore it can be a snapshot in time.
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for evaluating multiple competing hypotheses for observed data. It was developed by
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Adversarial
Reasoning: Computational Approaches to Reading the Opponent's Mind
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MITRE Sponsored
Research Project 51MSR111, Counter-Deception Decision Support
474:, though there is a lack of strong empirical evidence to support this belief.
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Constructing Cassandra, Reframing Intelligence Failure at the CIA, 1947-2001
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Cluxton, Diane; Eick, Stephen G., "DECIDE Hypothesis Visualization Tool",
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ACH activities at realistic scales leave analysts disoriented or confused.
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One method, by Valtorta and colleagues uses probabilistic methods, adds
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1238:, Queensland University, Brisbane, Australia, ADA463908, archived from
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Heuer, Richards J. Jr, "Chapter 8: Analysis of Competing Hypotheses",
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2004:
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negated, hypotheses depending on it are rejected. This is a form of
2013:
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International Conference on Intelligence Analysis Methods and Tools
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Structured Analysis Of Competing Hypotheses: Theory and Application
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The ACH matrix can be problematic when analyzing a complex project.
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184:
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Heuer outlines the ACH process in considerable depth in his book,
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1235:
Analysis of Competing Hypotheses using Subjective Logic (ACH-SL)
984:(55), Australian Institute of Professional Intelligence Officers
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ACH2.0.3 Download Page: Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH)
580:
756:
1414:
742:
Decision Command software was developed by Willard Zangwill.
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Wheaton, Kristan J., et al. (November–December 2006),
863:
Thomason, Neil (2010), "Alternative Competing Hypotheses",
275:
1332:
SSS Research, Inc. – DECIDE, VAST 2006 Contest Submission
422:
is minimized when all possible hypotheses are considered.
2299:
Counterintelligence and counter-terrorism organizations
1253:
Xerox Palo Alto Research Center and Richards J. Heuer,
915:
Deception Detection by Analysis of Competing Hypotheses
442:
Sensitivity – The analyst tests the conclusions using
1115:
Mercyhurst College Institute for Intelligence Studies
503:
Evidence also presents a problem if it is unreliable.
997:"Exploring new directions for intelligence analysis"
1179:
Proceedings of the 2006 Intelligence Tools Workshop
1159:
Proceedings of the 2006 Intelligence Tools Workshop
1328:
1069:
951:Jones, Milo L. and; Silberzahn, Philippe (2013).
2311:
593:
398:is an earlier concept with similarities to ACH.
1329:Lankenau, Russell A., et al. (July 2006),
1127:
950:
494:The process to create an ACH is time-consuming.
1338:
1194:
1192:
896:
1843:
1430:
1108:
1023:Strategic Thinking in Complex Problem Solving
748:Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) is an
320:
969:
1857:
1322:
1189:
1175:
856:
581:Structured analysis of competing hypotheses
490:Weaknesses of doing an ACH matrix include:
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1437:
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1169:
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994:
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911:
901:, Chapman & Hall/CRC, pp. 101–124
463:Some benefits of doing an ACH matrix are:
327:
313:
271:List of concept- and mind-mapping software
16:Process to evaluate alternative hypotheses
1368:"Burton/Analysis-of-Competing-Hypotheses"
1155:
1149:
1039:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780190463908.001.0001
912:Stech, Frank J.; Elsaesser, Christopher,
719:Learn how and when to remove this message
1391:
1344:
1246:
1232:Pope, Simon; Josang, Audun (June 2005),
1225:
1121:
890:
862:
844:, Center for the Study of Intelligence,
2264:Scientific & Technical intelligence
1202:2005 Intl conf on Intelligence Analysis
1198:
470:It is widely believed to help overcome
2312:
1687:Chinese espionage in the United States
1365:
655:Please improve this section by adding
410:. It consists of the following steps:
1831:
1418:
1109:Chido, Diane E., et al. (2006),
833:
831:
829:
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825:
823:
821:
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817:
2086:By alliances, nations and industries
1682:Chinese intelligence activity abroad
995:van Gelder, Tim (11 December 2012).
905:
781:Intelligence (information gathering)
628:
1748:Interpersonal (HUMINT) intelligence
1305:"Quantinus | Alignment | Execution"
841:Psychology of Intelligence Analysis
791:Multiple-criteria decision analysis
549:has made the following criticisms:
408:Psychology of Intelligence Analysis
13:
1348:DECIDE: from Complexity to Clarity
814:
668:"Analysis of competing hypotheses"
14:
2341:
1583:Computer and network surveillance
1394:"pstirparo/threatintel-resources"
1392:Stirparo, Pasquale (2020-12-10),
1079:Competitive Intelligence Magazine
976:van Gelder, Tim (December 2008),
837:
368:intelligence analysis methodology
1618:Short-range agent communications
633:
341:analysis of competing hypotheses
22:
2234:Words of estimative probability
2096:Operational platforms by nation
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1359:
1297:
1273:
1140:
1102:
611:
1366:Burton, Matthew (2020-12-11),
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988:
943:
735:PARC ACH 2.0 was developed by
84:Ontology (information science)
1:
1444:
955:. Stanford University Press.
657:secondary or tertiary sources
617:Work by Pope and Jøsang uses
594:Other approaches to formalism
485:
353:Richards (Dick) J. Heuer, Jr.
1307:. 2009-08-17. Archived from
978:"Can we do better than ACH?"
869:, National Academies Press,
577:) as an alternative to ACH.
458:
7:
2282:Intelligence cycle security
1021:Chevallier, Arnaud (2016).
846:Central Intelligence Agency
763:
624:
614:is visualization-oriented.
357:Central Intelligence Agency
355:, a 45-year veteran of the
286:Problem structuring methods
10:
2346:
1285:ach1.software.informer.com
1085:(6): 12–15, archived from
401:
366:ACH was a step forward in
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2119:
2076:
1941:
1903:
1883:
1874:
1865:
1674:
1643:
1553:
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1452:
737:Palo Alto Research Center
363:so difficult to achieve.
261:Entity–relationship model
44:Business decision mapping
807:
2249:Intelligence assessment
2239:All-source intelligence
1859:Intelligence management
1568:Covert listening device
1538:Intelligence assessment
1027:Oxford University Press
69:Knowledge visualization
1933:Operational techniques
1888:Special reconnaissance
1281:"Download ACH by PARC"
949:Chapters one to four,
644:relies excessively on
544:argumentation theorist
428:Diagnostics – Using a
256:Diagrammatic reasoning
79:Morphological analysis
2325:Intelligence analysis
1817:Targeted surveillance
361:intelligence analysis
281:Ontology (philosophy)
180:Layered graph drawing
54:Graphic communication
2254:Medical intelligence
2224:Competing hypotheses
2034:Industrial espionage
2019:Denial and deception
1743:Industrial espionage
1543:competing hypotheses
1025:. Oxford; New York:
569:Van Gelder proposed
524:value of information
444:sensitivity analysis
380:cognitive psychology
195:Organizational chart
190:Object-role modeling
107:Node–link approaches
2287:Counterintelligence
2202:Technical (TECHINT)
2197:Open-source (OSINT)
2187:Geospatial (GEOINT)
2161:Casualty estimation
755:ACH Template is an
752:ACH implementation.
539:in those selected.
529:root cause analysis
516:abductive reasoning
396:Abductive reasoning
89:Schema (psychology)
31:Information mapping
2259:Military geography
2244:Basic intelligence
2182:Financial (FININT)
2123:signature (MASINT)
2049:One-way voice link
1985:Concealment device
1694:Cold War espionage
1661:Front organization
1635:Surveillance tools
1613:Phone surveillance
1608:One-way voice link
1563:Concealment device
801:Working hypothesis
571:hypothesis mapping
200:Pathfinder network
64:Information design
49:Data visualization
2307:
2306:
2210:
2209:
2101:Direction finding
2091:In modern history
2072:
2071:
1825:
1824:
1479:Agent provocateur
1355:on March 28, 2007
1117:Press, p. 54
923:MITRE Corporation
884:978-0-309-15016-3
771:Decision analysis
729:
728:
721:
703:
600:Bayesian analysis
537:confirmation bias
337:
336:
36:Topics and fields
2337:
2106:Traffic analysis
2078:Signals (SIGINT)
1913:Asset recruiting
1881:
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1356:
1351:, archived from
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1292:
1291:
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1244:
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1242:on April 8, 2013
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1214:
1208:, archived from
1207:
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1187:
1186:
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1165:, pp. 28–34
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1007:
1001:timvangelder.com
992:
986:
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925:, archived from
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852:on June 13, 2007
848:, archived from
835:
724:
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704:
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661:
637:
629:
619:subjective logic
575:argument mapping
542:Philosopher and
520:Bayesian network
472:cognitive biases
467:It is auditable.
329:
322:
315:
266:Geovisualization
251:Design rationale
210:Semantic network
140:Conceptual graph
94:Visual analytics
26:
19:
18:
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2192:Imagery (IMINT)
2170:
2131:Electro-optical
2122:
2121:Measurement and
2115:
2068:
2044:Numbers station
1973:Black operation
1937:
1899:
1861:
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1795:Sting operation
1704:Black operation
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1666:Limited hangout
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1603:Numbers station
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786:Model selection
776:Decision matrix
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650:primary sources
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160:Hyperbolic tree
130:Concept lattice
99:Visual language
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1473:Agent handling
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2274:Dissemination
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2059:Steganography
2057:
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2045:
2042:
2040:
2039:Interrogation
2037:
2035:
2032:
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2027:
2025:
2024:Eavesdropping
2022:
2020:
2017:
2015:
2011:
2008:
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1893:organizations
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1753:interrogation
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1721:Eavesdropping
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1623:Steganography
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1598:Invisible ink
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1517:Sleeper agent
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1354:
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1334:
1333:
1325:
1311:on 2009-08-17
1310:
1306:
1300:
1286:
1282:
1276:
1263:on 2008-03-18
1262:
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1215:on 2008-08-07
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1092:on 2007-09-28
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1048:9780190463908
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709:December 2020
701:
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680:
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673:
670: –
669:
665:
664:Find sources:
658:
652:
651:
647:
642:This section
640:
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389:
385:
384:visualization
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161:
158:
156:
155:Graph drawing
153:
151:
148:
146:
145:Decision tree
143:
141:
138:
136:
133:
131:
128:
126:
125:Cognitive map
123:
121:
118:
116:
113:
112:
111:
110:
106:
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35:
34:
30:
29:
25:
21:
20:
2223:
2064:Surveillance
2054:Resident spy
1995:Cryptography
1800:Surveillance
1588:Cyber spying
1573:Cryptography
1542:
1512:Resident spy
1497:Double agent
1477:
1403:, retrieved
1397:
1387:
1377:, retrieved
1371:
1361:
1353:the original
1347:
1340:
1331:
1324:
1313:. Retrieved
1309:the original
1299:
1288:. Retrieved
1284:
1275:
1265:, retrieved
1261:the original
1255:
1248:
1240:the original
1234:
1227:
1217:, retrieved
1210:the original
1201:
1178:
1171:
1158:
1151:
1142:
1130:
1123:
1110:
1104:
1094:, retrieved
1087:the original
1082:
1078:
1065:
1022:
1016:
1006:30 September
1004:. Retrieved
1000:
990:
981:
971:
952:
945:
934:, retrieved
927:the original
914:
907:
898:
892:
865:
858:
850:the original
840:
730:
715:
706:
696:
689:
682:
675:
663:
643:
616:
609:
605:graph theory
597:
588:
584:
573:(similar to
570:
568:
541:
533:
509:
489:
462:
450:and drivers.
407:
405:
365:
344:
340:
338:
291:Semantic Web
115:Argument map
74:Mental model
59:Infographics
2136:Geophysical
1918:Cell system
1905:Clandestine
1790:Stay-behind
1699:Recruitment
1656:Canary trap
1554:Devices and
1502:Field agent
796:Sensemaking
750:open-source
479:backtracked
388:probability
376:data mining
349:methodology
296:Treemapping
205:Radial tree
135:Concept map
2330:Hypotheses
2314:Categories
2165:earthquake
2029:False flag
1867:Collection
1785:Sexpionage
1765:COINTELPRO
1758:safe house
1738:False flag
1675:Operations
1649:techniques
1645:Tradecraft
1405:2020-12-28
1379:2020-12-27
1315:2020-12-28
1290:2020-12-28
1267:2008-03-13
1219:2008-05-01
1096:2008-05-01
1029:. p.
982:AIPIO News
936:2008-05-01
679:newspapers
646:references
612:automation
486:Weaknesses
416:brainstorm
392:statistics
175:Issue tree
150:Dendrogram
120:Cladistics
2320:Cognition
2156:Materials
2010:Defection
2005:Dead drop
1978:black bag
1943:Espionage
1709:black bag
1593:Dead drop
1522:Spymaster
1446:Espionage
1057:940455195
459:Strengths
454:analyses.
448:linchpins
225:Topic map
215:Sociogram
170:Issue map
165:Hypertext
2216:Analysis
2014:Turncoat
1961:handling
1775:SHAMROCK
1628:microdot
1531:Analysis
764:See also
625:Software
243:See also
220:Timeline
185:Mind map
2163: (
2141:Nuclear
2111:TEMPEST
1770:MINARET
1714:wetwork
693:scholar
512:deceive
402:Process
394:, etc.
347:) is a
2000:Cutout
1951:Agents
1805:Global
1731:MASINT
1726:SIGINT
1578:Cutout
1462:Assets
1457:Agents
1399:GitHub
1373:GitHub
1055:
1045:
959:
881:
695:
688:
681:
674:
666:
430:matrix
235:ZigZag
2175:Other
2146:Radar
1990:Cover
1968:Asset
1956:field
1490:Agent
1485:Cover
1213:(PDF)
1206:(PDF)
1183:(PDF)
1163:(PDF)
1135:(PDF)
1090:(PDF)
1075:(PDF)
930:(PDF)
919:(PDF)
808:Notes
757:Excel
700:JSTOR
686:books
1810:Mass
1780:FVEY
1507:Mole
1053:OCLC
1043:ISBN
1008:2018
957:ISBN
879:ISBN
672:news
522:and
390:and
382:and
339:The
276:Olog
1647:and
1035:doi
1031:113
871:doi
648:to
345:ACH
2316::
2012:/
1396:,
1370:,
1283:.
1191:^
1113:,
1081:,
1077:,
1051:.
1041:.
1033:.
999:.
980:,
921:,
877:,
816:^
659:.
607:.
531:.
386:,
378:,
2167:)
1851:e
1844:t
1837:v
1438:e
1431:t
1424:v
1318:.
1293:.
1083:9
1059:.
1037::
1010:.
965:.
873::
722:)
716:(
711:)
707:(
697:·
690:·
683:·
676:·
653:.
343:(
328:e
321:t
314:v
Text is available under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License. Additional terms may apply.
