1176:
SUMMARY...Isolated severe hail/gusts are the main severe risks in the short term (next 1-3 hours). The tornado threat may increase later this afternoon dependent on quasi-discrete supercells developing ahead of the cold front. DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a relatively weak squall line over central AR with the mean flow largely parallel to the gust front of the squall line. Severe weather is not expected in the short term associated with this part of the convective line. Farther south, strengthening updrafts on or immediately behind the surface wind shift have led to the development of strong/severe storms developing from northeast TX into far southwestern AR. Isolated large hail/severe gusts are the primary hazards with this activity over the next 1-3 hours. A very stout cap was noted in the 12z SHV raob and the 18z SHV raob exhibited much reduced convective inhibition compared to this morning in the 850-650 mb layer. Although strengthening and veering flow with height in the lowest 1 km was noted --resulting in some enlargement to the hodograph-- considerable backing of flow in the 750-500 mb layer would tend to be suboptimal for tornadic low-level mesocyclones. Nonetheless, gradual moistening in the low levels is expected. It appears the risk for strong tornadoes may be less than previously thought---although some risk remains. ..Smith.. 04/26/2017
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Effective this
Wednesday morning and afternoon from 1005 AM until 500 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Widespread large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Widespread damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Severe storms will move across the watch area through this afternoon, posing a risk of locally damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes. An isolated strong tornado or two is also possible. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles north of Walnut Ridge AR to 35 miles southeast of Longview TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. &&
1157:(WPC). MCDs generally precede the issuance of a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch, by one to three hours when possible. Mesoscale discussions are designed to give local forecasters an update on a region where a severe weather threat is emerging and an indication of whether a watch is likely and details thereof, as well as situations of isolated severe weather when watches are not necessary. MCDs contain meteorological information on what is happening and what is expected to occur in the next few hours, and forecast reasoning in regard to weather watches. Mesoscale discussions are often issued to update information on watches already in effect, and sometimes when one is to be canceled. Mesoscale discussions are occasionally used as advance notice of a categorical upgrade of a scheduled convective outlook.
497:
508:
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day until 1200Z the following day), 1300Z and 1630Z (the "morning updates," valid until 1200Z the following day), 2000Z (the "afternoon update," valid until 1200Z the following day), and the 0100Z (the "evening update," valid until 1200Z the following day), provides a textual forecast, map of categories and probabilities, and chart of probabilities. Prior to
January 28, 2020, the Day 1 was currently the only outlook to issue specific probabilities for tornadoes, hail or wind. It is the most descriptive and highest accuracy outlook, and typically has the highest probability levels.
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1121:
delineated in this forecast that have least a 15% or 30% chance of severe weather in the Day 4â8 period (equivalent to a slight risk and an enhanced risk, respectively); as forecaster confidence is not fully resolute on how severe weather will evolve more than three days out, the Day 4â8 outlook only outlines the areas in which severe thunderstorms are forecast to occur during the period at the 15% and 30% likelihood, and does not utilize other categorical risk areas or outline where general (non-severe) thunderstorm activity will occur.
658:
1093:). Probabilities for tornadoes, hail and wind applying to the Day 1 Convective Outlook were incorporated into the Day 2 Convective Outlook on January 28, 2020, citing research to SPC operations and improvements in numerical forecast guidance that have increased forecaster confidence in risk estimation for those hazards in that timeframe. The individual hazard probabilistic forecasts replaced the existing "total severe" probability graph for general severe convective storms that had been used for the Day 2 outlook beforehand.
308:, and issues outline and status updates for SPC-issued severe thunderstorm and tornado watches that include areas served by the Norman office). In 1998, the center began issuing the National Fire Weather Outlook to provide forecasts for areas potentially susceptible to the development and spread of wildfires based on certain meteorological factors. The Day 3 Convective Outlook (which is similar in format to the Day 2 forecast) was first issued on an experimental basis in 2000, and was made an official product in 2001.
29:
1427:
weather conditions, severity of the predicted threat, and local climatology of a forecast region. "See Text" is a map label used for outlining areas where fire potential is great enough to pose a limited threat, but not enough to warrant a critical area, similar to areas using the same notation title that were formerly outlined in convective outlooks. Critical Fire
Weather Areas for Wind and Relative Humidity are typically issued when strong winds ( > 20 mph (32 km/h); 15 mph (24 km/h) for
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722:
three used originally. The new categories that were added are a "marginal risk" (replacing the "SEE TEXT" contours, see below) and an "enhanced risk". The latter is used to delineate areas where severe weather will occur that would fall under the previous probability criteria of an upper-end slight risk, but do not warrant the issuance of a moderate risk. In order from least to greatest threat, these categories are ranked as: marginal, slight, enhanced, moderate, and high.
1228:" (PDS), is subjectively issued. It is occasionally issued with tornado watches, normally for the potential of major tornado outbreaks, especially those with a significant threat of multiple tornadoes capable of producing F4/EF4 and F5/EF5 damage and/or staying on the ground for long-duration â sometimes uninterrupted â paths. A PDS severe thunderstorm watch is very rare and is typically reserved for derecho events impacting densely populated areas.
288:" watch, which indicates the imminent threat of a major severe weather event over the watch's timespan. In 1986, the NSSFC introduced two new forecast products: the Day 2 Convective Outlook (which include probabilistic forecasts for outlined areas of thunderstorm risk for the following day) and the Mesoscale Discussion (a short-term forecast outlining specific areas under threat for severe thunderstorm development).
1252:(s) of the areas under the watch), associated potential threats, a meteorological synopsis of atmospheric conditions favorable for severe thunderstorm development, forecasted aviation conditions, and a pre-determined message informing the public of the meaning behind the watch and to be vigilant of any warnings or weather statements that may be issued by their local National Weather Service office.
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1964:
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isolated tornadoes (often of shorter duration and varying weak to moderate intensity, depending on the available wind shear and other sufficient atmospheric parameters). During the peak severe weather season, most days will have a slight risk somewhere in the United States. Isolated significant severe events are possible in some circumstances, but are generally not widespread.
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of varying intensities. These days are quite frequent in the peak severe weather season and occur occasionally at other times of year. This risk category replaced the upper end of "slight" on
October 22, 2014, although a few situations that previously warranted a moderate risk were reclassified as enhanced (i.e. 45% wind or 15% tornado with no significant area).
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are expected to occur where dried fuels exist. Extremely
Critical Fire Weather Areas for Wind and Relative Humidity are issued when very strong winds and very low humidity are expected to occur with very dry fuels. Extremely Critical areas are issued relatively rarely, similar to the very low frequency of high risk areas in convective outlooks (see
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have continued to use the original three-category system to outline forecasted severe weather risks (though stations that do this may utilize in-house severe weather outlooks that vary to some degree from the SPC convective outlooks), while certain others that have switched to the current system have chosen not to outline marginal risk areas.
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isolated severe weather when watches are not necessary. Watches are issued when forecasters are confident that severe weather will occur, and usually precede the onset of severe weather by one hour, although this sometimes varies depending on certain atmospheric conditions that may inhibit or accelerate convective development.
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SPC mesoscale discussions for a high-impact and high-confidence strong tornadoes (EF2+) or winds greater than 100 miles per hour (160 km/h) are called meso-gamma mesoscale discussions. Meso-gamma mesoscale discussions are rarely issued by the SPC. As of May 2024, the Storm
Prediction Center
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Local forecast offices of the
National Weather Service, radio and television stations, and emergency planners often use the forecasts to gauge the potential severe weather threats to their areas. Even after the marginal and enhanced risk categories were added in October 2014, some television stations
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day indicates storms of only limited organization, longevity, coverage and/or intensity, typically isolated severe or near-severe storms with limited wind damage, large hail and perhaps a tornado. Wind gusts of at least 60 miles per hour (97 km/h) and hailstones of around 1 inch (2.5 cm) in
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Day 3 outlooks refer to the day after tomorrow, and include the same products (categorical outline, text description, and probability graph) as the Day 2 outlook. As of June 2012, the SPC forecasts general thunderstorm risk areas. Higher probability forecasts are less and less likely as the forecast
1080:
The categories at right refer to the risk levels for the specific severe weather event occurring within 25 miles (40 km) of any point in the delineated region, as described in the previous section. The Day 1 Convective
Outlook, issued five times per day at 0600Z (valid from 1200Z of the current
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or widespread straight-line wind events, are sometimes also possible on moderate risk days, but with greater uncertainty. Moderate risk days are not terribly uncommon, and typically occur several times a month during the peak of the severe weather season, and occasionally at other times of the year.
697:), with significant severe weather often more likely. Numerous tornadoes (some of which may be strong and potentially long-track), more widespread or severe wind damage and/or very large/destructive hail (up to or exceeding 2 inches (5.1 cm) in diameter) could occur. Major events, such as large
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day indicates that there is a greater threat for severe weather than that which would be indicated by a slight risk, but conditions are not adequate for the development of widespread significant severe weather to necessitate a moderate category. Severe storms are expected to be more concentrated and
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Public severe weather outlooks (PWO) are issued when a significant or widespread outbreak is expected, especially for tornadoes. From
November to March, it can also be issued for any threat of significant tornadoes in the nighttime hours, noting the lower awareness and greater danger of tornadoes at
546:
The Storm
Prediction Center issues convective outlooks (AC), consisting of categorical and probabilistic forecasts describing the general threat of severe convective storms over the contiguous United States for the next six to 192 hours (Day 1 through Day 8). These outlooks are labeled and issued by
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exist, similar to a slight, enhanced, or moderate risk of severe weather. Critical Fire Weather Areas for Dry Thunderstorms are typically issued when widespread or numerous thunderstorms producing rainfall of little accumulation to provide sufficient ground wetting ( < 0.10 inches (2.5 mm))
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There are four types of Fire Weather Outlook areas: "See Text", a "Critical Fire Weather Area for Wind and Relative Humidity", an "Extremely Critical Fire Weather Area for Wind and Relative Humidity", and a "Critical Fire Weather Area for Dry Thunderstorms". The outlook type depends on the forecast
677:
day typically will indicate that the threat exists for scattered severe weather, including scattered wind damage (produced by straight-line sustained winds and/or gusts of 60 to 70 mph), scattered severe hail (varying in size from 0.25 inches (0.64 cm) to 1.75 inches (4.4 cm)) and/or
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There is a three-stage process in which the area, time period, and details of a severe weather forecast are refined from a broad-scale forecast of potential hazards to a more specific and detailed forecast of what hazards are expected, and where and in what time frame they are expected to occur. If
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The Storm Prediction Center is responsible for forecasting the risk of severe weather caused by severe thunderstorms, specifically those producing tornadoes, hail of one inch (2.5 cm) in diameter or larger, and/or winds of 58 miles per hour (93 km/h) or greater. The agency also forecasts
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and is updated at 1700Z, and is valid from 1200Z to 1200Z the following day. The Day 2 outlook is issued at 1000Z and is updated at 2000Z for the forecast period of 1200Z to 1200Z the following day. The Day 3â8 outlook is issued at 2200Z, and is valid from 1200Z two days after the current calendar
1239:
are ideally the next step after watches, watches cover a threat of organized severe thunderstorms over a larger area and may not always precede a warning; watch "busts" do sometimes occur should thunderstorm activity not occur at all or that which does develop never reaches the originally forecast
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Day 2 outlooks, issued twice daily at 0600Z and 1730Z, refer to predicted risks of convective weather for the following day (1200Z to 1200Z of the next calendar day; for example, a Day 2 outlook issued on April 12, 2100, would be valid from 1200Z on April 13, 2100, through 1200Z on April 14, 2100)
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depending on the area it covers. Jurisdictions outlined by the county-based watch product as being included in the watch area may differ from the actual watch box; as such, certain counties, parishes or boroughs not covered by the fringes of the watch box may actually be included in the watch and
1243:
The process of issuing a convective watch begins with a conference call from SPC to local NWS offices. If after collaboration a watch is deemed necessary, the Storm Prediction Center will issue a watch approximation product which is followed by the local NWS office issuing a specific county-based
1211:
Watches (WWs) issued by the SPC are generally less than 20,000â50,000 square miles (52,000â129,000 km) in area and are normally preceded by a mesoscale discussion. Watches are intended to be issued preceding the arrival of severe weather by one to six hours. They indicate that conditions are
721:
The Storm Prediction Center began asking for public comment on proposed categorical additions to the Day 1-3 Convective Outlooks on April 21, 2014, for a two-month period. The Storm Prediction Center broadened this system beginning on October 22, 2014 by adding two new risk categories to the
231:
The agency is also responsible for forecasting fire weather (indicating conditions that are favorable for wildfires) in the contiguous U.S., issuing fire weather outlooks for Days 1, 2, and 3â8, which detail areas with various levels of risk for fire conditions (such as fire levels and fire
227:
are issued to provide information on certain individual regions where severe weather is becoming a threat and states whether a watch is likely and details thereof, particularly concerning conditions conducive for the development of severe thunderstorms in the short term, as well as situations of
1290:
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 162 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1005 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Much of Arkansas Northwest Louisiana Northeast Texas *
1175:
Mesoscale Discussion 0562 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017 Areas affected...central AR into northwestern LA and northeast TX Concerning...Tornado Watch 162... Valid 261805Z - 261930Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 162 continues.
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event. On these days, the potential exists for extremely severe and life-threatening weather. This includes widespread strong or violent tornadoes which may be on the ground for a half-hour or longer, or very destructive straight-line winds. Hail cannot verify or produce a high risk on its own,
482:
The Storm Prediction Center employs a total of 43 personnel, including five lead forecasters, ten mesoscale/outlook forecasters, and seven assistant mesoscale forecasters. Many SPC forecasters and support staff are heavily involved in scientific research into severe and hazardous weather. This
1413:
The Storm Prediction Center also is responsible for issuing fire weather outlooks (FWD) for the continental United States. These outlooks are a guidance product for local, state and federal government agencies, including local National Weather Service offices, in forecasting the potential for
1216:
organized severe thunderstorms are expected but conditions are not thought to be especially favorable for tornadoes (although they can occur in such areas where one is in effect, and some severe thunderstorm watch statements issued by the SPC may note a threat of isolated tornadic activity if
1120:
Day 4â8 outlooks are the longest-term official SPC Forecast Product, and often change significantly from day to day. This extended forecast for severe weather was an experimental product until March 22, 2007, when the Storm Prediction Center incorporated it as an official product. Areas are
1128:
Generally, the convective outlook boundaries or lines â general thunderstorms (light green), marginal (dark green), slight (yellow), enhanced (orange), moderate (red) and high (purple) â will be continued as an arrow or line not filled with color if the risk area enters another country
311:
In 2006, the Storm Prediction Center, National Severe Storms Laboratory and National Weather Service Norman Forecast Office moved their respective operations into the newly constructed National Weather Center, near Westheimer Airport. Since the agency's relocation to Norman, the
1101:). Day 3 high risks are never issued and the operational standards do not allow for such. This is most likely because it would require both a very high degree of certainty (60%) for an event which was still at least 48 hours away and a reasonable level of confidence that said
212:
as a part of this process. Convective outlooks are issued for the following eight days (issued separately for Day 1, Day 2, Day 3, and Days 4â8), and detail the risk of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes during the given forecast period, although tornado,
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watch product. The latter product is responsible for triggering public alert messages via television, radio stations and NOAA Weather Radio. The watch approximation product outlines specific regions covered by the watch (including the approximate outlined area in
714:
although such a day usually involves a threat for widespread very large and damaging hail as well. Many of the most prolific severe weather days were high risk days. Such days are rare; a high risk is typically issued (at the most) only a few times each year (see
2438:"Yes that's a meso-gamma mcd. They are primarily designed to deliver targeted mesoanalysis information to warning forecasters for high impact severe weather phenomenon. Ie. strong long-track tornadoes and in some cases extreme damaging winds greater than 100 mph"
536:, damaging winds, and tornadoes), while the bottom map specifically shows the risk percentage of a tornado forming within 25 miles (40 km) of any point within the enclosed area. The hatched area on the bottom map indicates a 10% or greater risk of an
670:
diameter are common storm threats within a marginal risk; depending on the sufficient wind shear, a tornado â usually of weak (EF0 to EF1) intensity and short duration â may be possible. This category replaced the "SEE TEXT" category on October 22, 2014.
617:
In April 2011, the SPC introduced a new graphical format for its categorical and probability outlooks, which included the shading of risk areas (with the colors corresponding to each category, as mentioned above, being changed as well) and
483:
involves conducting applied research and writing technical papers, developing training materials, giving seminars and other presentations locally and nationwide, attending scientific conferences, and participating in weather experiments.
325:) or emergency (such as an approaching strong tornadic circulation or tornado on the ground) affecting the Norman campus; on April 1, 2009, the SPC reassigned responsibilities for issuing the center's products in such situations to the
291:
In October 1995, the National Severe Storms Forecast Center relocated its operations to Norman, Oklahoma, and was rechristened the Storm Prediction Center. At that time, the guidance center was housed at Max Westheimer Airport (now the
320:
would assume control of issuing the Storm Prediction Center's severe weather products in the event that the SPC is no longer able to issue them in the event of an outage (such as a computer system failure or building-wide
283:
In 1968, the National Severe Storms Forecast Center began issuing status reports on weather watches; the agency then made its first computerized data transmission in 1971. On April 2, 1982, the agency issued the first
1268:
vice versa. Watches can be expanded, contracted (by removing jurisdictions where SPC and NWS forecasters no longer consider there to be a viable threat of severe weather, in which case, the watch box may take on a
1097:
period increases due to lessening forecast ability farther in advance. Day 3 moderate risks are quite rare; these have been issued only twenty times since the product became operational (most recently for
1255:
Watch outline products provide a visual map depiction of the issued watch; the SPC typically delineates watches within this product in the form of "boxes," which technically are represented as either
1085:
and include only a categorical outline, textual description, and a map of categories and probabilities. Day 2 moderate risks are fairly uncommon, and a Day 2 high risk has only been issued twice (for
2695:
1137:) or across waters beyond the United States coastline. This indicates that the risk for severe weather is also valid in that general area of the other side of the border or oceanic boundary.
1890:
304:(the latter of which, in addition to disseminating forecasts, oversees the issuance of weather warnings and advisories for the western two-thirds of Oklahoma and western portions of
1187:
1456:â the Weather Forecast Office located adjacent to the Storm Prediction Center within the National Weather Center, which serves central and western Oklahoma and northwestern Texas
1780:
2196:
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1212:
favorable for thunderstorms capable of producing various modes of severe weather, including large hail, damaging straight-line winds and/or tornadoes. In the case of
2764:
602:
e: red shaded area â previously rendered as a red line â indicating a moderate risk of severe weather); and "HIGH" (pink shaded area â previously a rendered as a
1441:
1398:
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351:, two officers (Fawbush and Miller) successfully predict another one five days later on 25 March at same base, given responsibility for AF tornado predictions.
1840:
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1240:
level of severity. Warnings are issued by local National Weather Service offices, not the Storm Prediction Center, which is a national guidance center.
1224:
In situations where a forecaster expects a significant threat of extremely severe and life-threatening weather, a watch with special enhanced wording, "
709:
day indicates a considerable likelihood of significant to extreme severe weather, generally a major tornado outbreak or (much less often) an extreme
1496:
166:
2232:
715:
525:
2704:
610:" because of their representation on outlook maps) refer to a threat of increased storm intensity that is of "significant severe" levels (F2/
158:
125:
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summaries in three-hour intervals in 1960; with the increased duties of compiling and disseminating radar summaries, this unit became the
217:
and wind details are only available for Days 1 and 2. Day 3, as well as 4â8 use a probabilistic scale, determining the probability for a
718:). High risk areas are usually surrounded by a larger moderate risk area, where uncertainty is greater or the threat is somewhat lower.
1459:
641:
In 2013, the SPC incorporated a small table under the Convective Outlook's risk category map that indicates the total coverage area by
2808:
1453:
1098:
1090:
562:: light green shaded area â rendered as a brown line prior to April 2011 â indicating a risk for general thunderstorms), "MRGL" (for
301:
293:
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2210:
1086:
79:
2176:
638:
overlays. The new shaded maps also incorporated a revised color palette for the shaded probability categories in each outlook.
521:
1912:"About the Storm Prediction Center: The Severe Storms Forecast Process: Outlook to Mesoscale Discussion to Watch to Warning"
2097:"Glossary â National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service: Public Severe Weather Outlook"
413:
1976: Techniques Development Unit (TDU) established in April to provide software development and evaluate forecast methods.
170:
2350:
586:: yellow shaded area â previously rendered as a green line â indicating a slight risk of severe weather); "ENH" (for
326:
297:
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or stronger tornado, 2 inches (5.1 cm) or larger hail, or 75 miles per hour (121 km/h) winds or greater).
410:) formed, and entire WB office (SELS and DFO) in Kansas City renamed National Severe Storms Forecast Center (NSSFC).
1225:
627:
590:
anced: orange shaded area, which replaced the upper end of the SLGT category on October 22, 2014); "MDT" (for
285:
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representation in map-based watch products) or canceled before their set time of expiration by local NWS offices.
2740:
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1621:
431:
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1954: SELS relocates from the WBAN Center in Washington to the WB's District Forecast Office (DFO) in downtown
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Watches are not "warnings", where there is an immediate severe weather threat to life and property. Although
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1814:
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1102:
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Slight and enhanced risk areas typically surround areas under a moderate risk, where the threat is lower.
693:
day indicates that more widespread and/or more dangerous severe weather is possible (sometimes with major
2818:
1643:
Greg Carbin; Roger Edwards; Greg Grosshans; David Imy; Mike Kay; Jay Liang; Joe Schaefer; Rich Thompson.
1232:
1418:. The outlooks issued are for Day 1, Day 2, and Days 3â8. The Day 1 product is issued at 4:00 a.m.
272:. SELS began issuing convective outlooks for predicted thunderstorm activity in 1955, and began issuing
2323:
2268:
1891:"A conversation with Oklahoma meteorologist Liz Leitman, the first woman to issue a thunderstorm watch"
1074:
645:, the total estimated population affected and major cities included within a severe weather risk area.
437:
2023: Meteorologist Liz Leitman becomes the first woman at the SPC to issue a convective weather watch.
403:
1964: Remainder of NSSP moves to Norman and is reorganized as National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL).
661:
An example of an Enhanced Risk day overlaid with the radar with Severe Thunderstorm Watches in effect.
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635:
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574:: darker green shaded area, indicating a very low but present risk of severe weather); "SLGT" (for
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in March as a trial unit, made permanent on 21 May as the Weather Bureau Severe Weather Unit (SWU).
344:
197:
162:
2411:"They are called meso-gamma mcds and we do them for high impact high confidence violent tornadoes"
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2715:
2511:"Glossary â National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service: PDS"
2437:
2410:
2158:
1590:
631:
177:
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2007:
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conditions are of modest favorability for storm rotation capable of inducing them), whereas for
1607:
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623:
496:
355:
1588:
Stephen F. Corfidi (August 1999). "The Birth and Early Years of the Storm Prediction Center".
1866:"Storm Prediction Center meteorologist became first woman to issue Severe Thunderstorm Watch"
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611:
537:
420:
384:
348:
317:
265:
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line â indicating a high risk of severe weather). Significant severe areas (referred to as "
507:
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Day 1 Fire Outlook map issued by the Storm Prediction Center on April 10, 2019, depicting
1073:
Convective outlooks are issued by the Storm Prediction Center in Zulu time (also known as
8:
257:
189:
2148:
1865:
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1603:
400:'s Weather Radar Laboratory to work with a new Weather Surveillance Radar-1957 (WSR-57).
1781:"Stormcaller Liz Leitman makes history as first female to issue severe weather warning"
464:
313:
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2045:
1221:
conditions are thought to be favorable for severe thunderstorms to produce tornadoes.
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479:
warranted, forecasts will also increase in severity through this three-stage process.
1762:
1625:
1432:
1419:
460:
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2242:. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. November 14, 2019. Archived from
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2024: On February 15, 2024, Leitman became the first woman meteorologist to issue a
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1952: WB establishes its own Weather Bureau-Army-Navy (WBAN) Analysis Center in
28:
1841:"STEM Spotlight: Storm Prediction Center meteorologist makes history for women"
1110:
529:
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1955: National Severe Storms Project (NSSP) formed SELS' as research component.
218:
2567:"Storm Prediction Center Day 3â8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Apr 21, 2013"
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2006: SPC moves a few miles south to the National Weather Center (NWC) on the
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2123:"Experimental SPC Day 1, 2, 3 Convective Outlook Change Public Comment Page"
2005:
1973:
1911:
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322:
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1968:
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or stronger tornado forming within 25 miles (40 km) of a point.
517:
305:
2478:
Chris Novy; Roger Edwards; David Imy; Stephen Goss (November 13, 2008).
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Chris Novy; Roger Edwards; David Imy; Stephen Goss (November 13, 2008).
2006:
Chris Novy; Roger Edwards; David Imy; Stephen Goss (November 13, 2008).
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Chris Novy; Roger Edwards; David Imy; Stephen Goss (March 25, 2010).
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1958: SELS assumes authority for all public severe weather forecasts.
188:, the Storm Prediction Center is tasked with forecasting the risk of
2052:. Norman, Oklahoma: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
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Day 3â8 probability to categorical fire weather outlook conversion
1153:(mesoscale precipitation discussions ); MPDs are now issued by the
607:
269:
185:
93:
2480:"Storm Prediction Center and its Products: Severe Weather Watches"
2233:"Product Description Document (PDD): SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook"
2703:
2599:"Storm Prediction Center and its Products: Fire Weather Outlooks"
2384:"Storm Prediction Center and its Products: Mesoscale Discussions"
1937:
1428:
710:
193:
2517:. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. June 25, 2009
2103:. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. June 25, 2009
2077:. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. June 12, 2013
1815:"In a First, a Women Issues a Thunderstorm Watch, Officials Say"
1796:"In a First, a Woman Issues a Thunderstorm Watch, Officials Say"
1188:
List of Storm Prediction Center meso-gamma mesoscale discussions
2044:
Grams, Jeremy; Bunting, Bill; Weiss, Steve (October 22, 2014).
2008:"Storm Prediction Center and its Products: Convective Outlooks"
1644:
1256:
1134:
1130:
731:
Day 1 and Day 2 probability to categorical outlook conversion
2089:
1406:
416:
1995: NSSFC renamed Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in October.
354:
1951: Severe Weather Warning Center (SWWC) established as an
1671:"Operational weather squadron picks up new responsibilities"
221:
event in percentage categories (15%/yellow and 30%/orange).
2661:
1759:
10.1175/1520-0434(1999)014<0507:TBAEYO>2.0.CO;2
1622:
10.1175/1520-0434(1999)014<0507:TBAEYO>2.0.CO;2
533:
407:
214:
136:
2269:
Storm Prediction Center Day 1, 2 and 3 Convective Outlooks
1732:"The Birth and Early Years of the Storm Prediction Center"
1645:"Storm Prediction Center Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)"
1517:
1423:
date to 1200Z seven days after the current calendar date.
2351:"Mar 20, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook"
280:(NSSFC) in 1966, remaining headquartered in Kansas City.
2377:
2375:
2373:
2371:
1169:
Graphic associated with the example mesoscale discussion
1557:
1442:
List of Storm Prediction Center extremely critical days
2001:
1999:
1997:
1995:
1993:
1991:
1989:
1987:
1985:
1280:
1027:
Day 4â8 probability to categorical outlook conversion
302:
local National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
2368:
2275:(Report). National Weather Service. February 14, 2006
2197:"A better outlook: SPC revises its severe categories"
2063:
406:
1965: Environmental Science Services Administration (
947:
Day 3 probability to categorical outlook conversion
1982:
347:(WB) researchers' work by on a 20 March tornado at
264:In 1954, the unit moved its forecast operations to
1978:. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
1587:
1486:
1181:
65:National Severe Storms Forecast Center (1966â1995)
2605:. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2573:. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2547:. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2486:. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2390:. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2330:. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2149:"Forecasters Adding New Layers of Storm Outlooks"
2129:. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2043:
2014:. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
1944:. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
1918:. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
1651:. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
1569:. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
1526:. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
1248:) and its time of expiration (based on the local
2795:
2534:
2532:
2071:"Jun 12, 2013 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook"
2039:
2037:
2035:
2033:
2031:
2029:
1689:"A Brief History of the Storm Prediction Center"
1489:"A brief history of the Storm Prediction Center"
1193:has issued 42 meso-gamma mesoscale discussions.
2592:
2590:
2588:
2541:"Storm Prediction Center PDS Tornado Watch 232"
1497:National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
1435:(usually < 20%) are expected to occur where
167:National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
716:List of Storm Prediction Center high risk days
550:The categorical levels of risks are TSTM (for
547:day, and are issued up to five times per day.
520:maps issued by the Storm Prediction Center on
2814:National Centers for Environmental Prediction
2705:National Centers for Environmental Prediction
2689:
2529:
2261:
2177:"Forecasters adding layers of storm outlooks"
2026:
1467:, a forecaster at the Storm Prediction Center
1145:SPC mesoscale discussions (MDs) once covered
240:The Storm Prediction Center began in 1952 as
159:National Centers for Environmental Prediction
126:National Centers for Environmental Prediction
2585:
528:. The top map indicates the risk of general
463:conditions. It does so primarily by issuing
2328:National Weather Service, D.C. Headquarters
161:(NCEP), operating under the control of the
2696:
2682:
2538:
2473:
2471:
2469:
2467:
2465:
2463:
1906:
1904:
1553:
1551:
1549:
1547:
1545:
1543:
1541:
1460:Severe weather terminology (United States)
1284:Graphic associated with the example watch.
296:), co-located in the same building as the
224:
205:
16:American severe weather forecasting center
1930:
1611:
1482:
1480:
1454:National Weather Service Norman, Oklahoma
336:
294:University of Oklahoma Westheimer Airport
2622:
2620:
1956:
1487:Stephen F. Corfidi (December 27, 2009).
1392:
1301:
1279:
1164:
1149:(mesoscale convective discussions ) and
1140:
656:
201:
33:The logo of the Storm Prediction Center.
2460:
1901:
1729:
1538:
80:Federal government of the United States
2796:
2505:
2503:
2501:
1581:
1477:
486:
432:University of Oklahoma Research Campus
380:torm (SELS) Warning Center on 17 June.
278:National Severe Storms Forecast Center
2677:
2617:
2185:. Associated Press. January 17, 2014.
1838:
1812:
1793:
725:
2348:
209:
171:United States Department of Commerce
165:(NWS), which in turn is part of the
2498:
1938:"Storm Prediction Center Employees"
358:unit, headed by Fawbush and Miller.
13:
2417:. TwisterKidMedia (SPC Forecaster)
1813:Jones, Judson (18 February 2023).
1794:Jones, Judson (18 February 2023).
1730:Corfidi, Stephen F. (1999-08-01).
1636:
1196:
14:
2835:
2653:
2448:from the original on 14 July 2023
2435:
2408:
1975:About the Storm Prediction Center
1518:"NOAA's National Weather Service"
1401:fire conditions over portions of
327:15th Operational Weather Squadron
298:National Severe Storms Laboratory
2809:History of Kansas City, Missouri
2631: This article incorporates
2626:
2209:. March 28, 2014. Archived from
1967: This article incorporates
1962:
1839:Bates, Sabrina (20 March 2024).
1226:Particularly Dangerous Situation
506:
495:
286:Particularly Dangerous Situation
27:
2824:1995 establishments in Oklahoma
2741:Space Weather Prediction Center
2559:
2429:
2402:
2342:
2316:
2287:
2225:
2189:
2169:
2141:
2115:
1883:
1858:
1832:
1806:
1787:
1773:
1723:
1182:Meso-gamma mesoscale discussion
1709:
1695:
1681:
1663:
1510:
1035:Combined TORN, WIND, and HAIL
955:Combined TORN, WIND, and HAIL
1:
2726:Environmental Modeling Center
2324:"Service Change Notice 12-26"
2295:"Service Change Notice 19-94"
1471:
652:
516:Day 1 Convective Outlook and
396:1962: Some from NSSP move to
1275:
1263:(horizontal or vertical) or
1103:severe thunderstorm outbreak
7:
2349:Goss, Steve (20 Mar 2022).
1703:"Time Line of SELS and SPC"
1447:
1214:severe thunderstorm watches
475:and mesoscale discussions.
469:severe thunderstorm watches
449:
114:Russell Schneider, Director
10:
2842:
2539:Jack Hales (May 5, 2007).
1563:"Timeline of SELS and SPC"
1200:
1185:
1160:
1075:Universal Coordinated Time
235:
2751:Weather Prediction Center
2731:National Hurricane Center
2721:Climate Prediction Center
2711:
2669:SPC products descriptions
2182:Arkansas Democrat-Gazette
2046:"SPC Convective Outlooks"
1207:Severe thunderstorm watch
1155:Weather Prediction Center
1109:weather (EF2+ tornadoes,
442:severe thunderstorm watch
131:
121:
107:
99:
85:
75:
58:
43:
38:
26:
2515:National Weather Service
2302:National Weather Service
2101:National Weather Service
1523:National Weather Service
198:contiguous United States
163:National Weather Service
2746:Storm Prediction Center
2736:Ocean Prediction Center
2716:Aviation Weather Center
2644:Storm Prediction Center
2603:Storm Prediction Center
2571:Storm Prediction Center
2545:Storm Prediction Center
2484:Storm Prediction Center
2388:Storm Prediction Center
2355:Storm Prediction Center
2273:Storm Prediction Center
2240:Storm Prediction Center
2159:The Walt Disney Company
2127:Storm Prediction Center
2075:Storm Prediction Center
2050:Storm Prediction Center
2012:Storm Prediction Center
1942:Storm Prediction Center
1916:Storm Prediction Center
1739:Weather and Forecasting
1649:Storm Prediction Center
1591:Weather and Forecasting
1567:Storm Prediction Center
1493:Storm Prediction Center
178:National Weather Center
147:Storm Prediction Center
22:Storm Prediction Center
2633:public domain material
1969:public domain material
1410:
1293:
1285:
1178:
1170:
662:
337:Brief history timeline
2780:35.18139°N 97.44028°W
2639:Fire weather outlooks
1561:; Fred Ostby (2009).
1396:
1302:Fire weather products
1288:
1283:
1173:
1168:
1141:Mesoscale discussions
1111:hurricane-force winds
660:
419:1997: SPC moves from
318:Offutt Air Force Base
225:Mesoscale discussions
206:mesoscale discussions
176:Headquartered at the
2444:. @TwisterKidMedia.
2249:on February 18, 2017
331:Scott Air Force Base
190:severe thunderstorms
157:that is part of the
2785:35.18139; -97.44028
2776: /
2304:. November 15, 2019
2165:. January 17, 2014.
1897:. 28 February 2023.
1783:. 17 February 2023.
1751:1999WtFor..14..507C
1604:1999WtFor..14..507C
1313:Outlook probability
1309:
1233:severe thunderstorm
1032:Outlook probability
1028:
952:Outlook probability
948:
736:Outlook probability
732:
649:that time of year.
487:Convective outlooks
465:convective outlooks
356:Air Weather Service
258:U.S. Weather Bureau
202:convective outlooks
23:
2819:Weather prediction
1800:The New York Times
1411:
1399:extremely critical
1307:
1286:
1171:
1107:significant severe
1026:
946:
730:
726:Issuance and usage
663:
368:1953: SWU renamed
314:557th Weather Wing
59:Preceding agencies
21:
2759:
2758:
2213:on April 26, 2014
1433:relative humidity
1390:
1389:
1071:
1070:
1024:
1023:
1017:
998:
979:
944:
943:
931:
900:
869:
838:
816:
811:
803:
795:
790:
763:
758:
699:tornado outbreaks
532:(including large
256:torms Unit), the
155:government agency
143:
142:
47:October 1995
2831:
2804:Norman, Oklahoma
2791:
2790:
2788:
2787:
2786:
2781:
2777:
2774:
2773:
2772:
2769:
2698:
2691:
2684:
2675:
2674:
2665:
2664:
2662:Official website
2648:
2647:
2630:
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2624:
2615:
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2583:
2582:
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2346:
2340:
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2320:
2314:
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2311:
2309:
2299:
2291:
2285:
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2265:
2259:
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2256:
2254:
2248:
2237:
2229:
2223:
2222:
2220:
2218:
2193:
2187:
2186:
2173:
2167:
2166:
2163:Associated Press
2145:
2139:
2138:
2136:
2134:
2119:
2113:
2112:
2110:
2108:
2093:
2087:
2086:
2084:
2082:
2067:
2061:
2060:
2058:
2057:
2041:
2024:
2023:
2021:
2019:
2003:
1980:
1979:
1966:
1965:
1960:
1954:
1953:
1951:
1949:
1934:
1928:
1927:
1925:
1923:
1908:
1899:
1898:
1887:
1881:
1880:
1878:
1876:
1862:
1856:
1855:
1853:
1851:
1836:
1830:
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1827:
1825:
1810:
1804:
1803:
1791:
1785:
1784:
1777:
1771:
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1736:
1727:
1721:
1720:
1713:
1707:
1706:
1699:
1693:
1692:
1685:
1679:
1678:
1677:. April 1, 2009.
1667:
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1640:
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1615:
1585:
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1514:
1508:
1507:
1505:
1503:
1484:
1386:
1362:
1344:
1329:
1310:
1306:
1297:
1237:tornado warnings
1029:
1025:
1015:
996:
977:
949:
945:
929:
898:
867:
836:
814:
809:
801:
793:
788:
761:
756:
733:
729:
510:
499:
343:1948: Following
323:power disruption
262:Washington, D.C.
139:
137:www.spc.noaa.gov
108:Agency executive
68:SELS (1953â1966)
54:
52:
31:
24:
20:
2841:
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2520:
2518:
2509:
2508:
2499:
2489:
2487:
2476:
2461:
2451:
2449:
2436:Lyons, Andrew.
2434:
2430:
2420:
2418:
2409:Lyons, Andrew.
2407:
2403:
2393:
2391:
2380:
2369:
2359:
2357:
2347:
2343:
2333:
2331:
2322:
2321:
2317:
2307:
2305:
2297:
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2267:
2266:
2262:
2252:
2250:
2246:
2235:
2231:
2230:
2226:
2216:
2214:
2207:Gannett Company
2195:
2194:
2190:
2175:
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2170:
2147:
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2130:
2121:
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2095:
2094:
2090:
2080:
2078:
2069:
2068:
2064:
2055:
2053:
2042:
2027:
2017:
2015:
2004:
1983:
1972:
1963:
1961:
1957:
1947:
1945:
1936:
1935:
1931:
1921:
1919:
1910:
1909:
1902:
1889:
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1864:
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1849:
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1807:
1792:
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1715:
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1710:
1701:
1700:
1696:
1687:
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1669:
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1664:
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1641:
1637:
1613:10.1.1.410.7852
1586:
1582:
1572:
1570:
1556:
1539:
1529:
1527:
1516:
1515:
1511:
1501:
1499:
1485:
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1474:
1450:
1391:
1384:
1360:
1342:
1327:
1304:
1299:
1295:
1292:
1278:
1219:tornado watches
1209:
1201:Main articles:
1199:
1197:Weather watches
1190:
1184:
1179:
1177:
1163:
1143:
728:
655:
544:
543:
542:
541:
513:
512:
511:
502:
501:
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489:
473:tornado watches
452:
447:
339:
238:
135:
117:
71:
50:
48:
39:Agency overview
34:
17:
12:
11:
5:
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2654:External links
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2025:
1981:
1955:
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1900:
1882:
1857:
1831:
1819:New York Times
1805:
1786:
1772:
1745:(4): 507â525.
1722:
1717:"NSSL History"
1708:
1694:
1680:
1662:
1635:
1598:(4): 507â525.
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1265:parallelograms
1198:
1195:
1183:
1180:
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1162:
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1139:
1115:egg-sized hail
1105:would include
1099:March 22, 2022
1091:April 14, 2012
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530:severe weather
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345:Weather Bureau
340:
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219:severe weather
169:(NOAA) of the
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1559:Roger Edwards
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1203:Tornado watch
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1151:precipitation
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1138:
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1126:
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1087:April 7, 2006
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691:moderate risk
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683:enhanced risk
679:
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667:marginal risk
659:
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518:probabilistic
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2638:
2607:. Retrieved
2602:
2575:. Retrieved
2570:
2561:
2551:December 27,
2549:. Retrieved
2544:
2521:December 27,
2519:. Retrieved
2514:
2490:December 27,
2488:. Retrieved
2483:
2450:. Retrieved
2441:
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2394:December 27,
2392:. Retrieved
2387:
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2327:
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2244:the original
2239:
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2211:the original
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2126:
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2074:
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2049:
2018:December 27,
2016:. Retrieved
2011:
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1958:
1946:. Retrieved
1941:
1932:
1922:December 27,
1920:. Retrieved
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1860:
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1818:
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1566:
1528:. Retrieved
1521:
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1500:. Retrieved
1492:
1425:
1420:Central Time
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720:
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643:square miles
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524:depicting a
522:May 20, 2019
481:
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461:fire weather
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200:. It issues
175:
150:
146:
144:
86:Headquarters
76:Jurisdiction
18:
2783: /
2421:7 September
2308:February 4,
2279:January 31,
2253:February 4,
2107:January 31,
1870:Fox Weather
1573:February 2,
1502:January 31,
1437:dried fuels
1270:trapezoidal
1016:Sig. Severe
997:Sig. Severe
978:Sig. Severe
930:Sig. Severe
899:Sig. Severe
868:Sig. Severe
837:Sig. Severe
802:Sig. Severe
675:slight risk
421:Kansas City
385:Kansas City
306:North Texas
266:Kansas City
2798:Categories
2771:97°26â˛25âłW
2768:35°10â˛53âłN
2056:2014-10-22
1472:References
1431:) and low
1403:New Mexico
1261:rectangles
1186:See also:
1147:convection
695:hurricanes
653:Categories
636:interstate
620:population
455:hazardous
363:Washington
349:Tinker AFB
153:) is a US
2609:April 16,
2577:April 22,
2334:April 13,
2217:March 30,
2133:April 21,
1767:1520-0434
1675:AFWeather
1630:1520-0434
1608:CiteSeerX
1416:wildfires
1373:CRITICAL
1347:MARGINAL
1319:DRY TSTM
1250:time zone
1113:, and/or
1077:or UTC).
707:high risk
232:alerts).
194:tornadoes
100:Employees
2446:Archived
2154:ABC News
2081:June 14,
1948:April 8,
1448:See also
1385:not used
1381:CRITICAL
1370:MARGINAL
1361:not used
1352:< 40%
1343:not used
1328:not used
1324:< 10%
1316:CRITICAL
1089:and for
1040:< 15%
815:not used
810:not used
794:not used
789:not used
762:not used
757:not used
450:Overview
300:and the
270:Missouri
186:Oklahoma
94:Oklahoma
2452:14 July
2442:Twitter
2415:Twitter
1875:5 April
1850:5 April
1824:5 April
1747:Bibcode
1655:May 13,
1600:Bibcode
1530:May 13,
1429:Florida
1356:No Area
1333:No Area
1296:Source:
1276:Example
1257:squares
1161:Example
1064:Severe
1053:Severe
1044:No Area
711:derecho
632:borough
604:fuchsia
554:hunder
236:History
210:watches
196:in the
173:(DoC).
132:Website
51:1995-10
49: (
2360:24 May
1765:
1628:
1610:
1135:Mexico
1131:Canada
628:parish
624:county
457:winter
425:Norman
398:Norman
208:, and
182:Norman
90:Norman
44:Formed
2635:from
2298:(PDF)
2247:(PDF)
2236:(PDF)
1971:from
1735:(PDF)
1407:Texas
1066:(30%)
1055:(15%)
982:SLGT
971:SLGT
963:MRGL
847:SLGT
830:SLGT
777:MRGL
745:HAIL
376:ocal
372:vere
274:radar
252:ocal
248:vere
2611:2010
2579:2013
2553:2009
2523:2009
2492:2009
2454:2023
2423:2022
2396:2009
2362:2019
2336:2013
2310:2020
2281:2010
2255:2020
2219:2014
2202:WUSA
2135:2014
2109:2010
2083:2013
2020:2009
1950:2010
1924:2009
1895:KOSU
1877:2024
1852:2024
1845:KOCO
1826:2024
1763:ISSN
1657:2010
1626:ISSN
1575:2010
1532:2010
1504:2010
1405:and
1235:and
1205:and
1020:MDT
1014:45%
1009:ENH
1001:ENH
995:30%
990:ENH
976:15%
940:MDT
937:HIGH
934:HIGH
928:60%
923:MDT
917:HIGH
909:MDT
903:HIGH
897:45%
892:ENH
886:HIGH
878:ENH
872:HIGH
866:30%
861:ENH
844:SLGT
835:15%
827:SLGT
800:10%
774:MRGL
771:SLGT
753:MRGL
742:WIND
739:TORN
634:and
534:hail
459:and
408:ESSA
242:SELS
215:hail
192:and
145:The
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920:MDT
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889:ENH
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855:MDT
852:30%
841:MDT
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821:15%
806:ENH
785:ENH
782:10%
681:An
612:EF2
598:era
588:Enh
570:ina
538:EF2
423:to
316:at
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