Sea level rise - Knowledge

3188: 246: 2783: 3334: 3467: 1889: 2088: 1998: 1782: 809:–74 in). It stated that the "low-confidence, high impact" projected 0.63–1.60 m (2–5 ft) mean sea level rise by 2100, and that by 2150, the total sea level rise in his scenario would be in the range of 0.98–4.82 m (3–16 ft) by 2150. AR6 also provided lower-confidence estimates for year 2300 sea level rise under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 with various impact assumptions. In the best case scenario, under SSP1-2.6 with no ice sheet acceleration after 2100, the estimate was only 0.8–2.0 metres (2.6–6.6 ft). In the worst estimated scenario, SSP-8.5 with ice cliff instability, the projected range for total sea level rise was 9.5–16.2 metres (31–53 ft) by the year 2300. 2943: 47: 704: 1811: 2179: 1510: 8244:

Gogineni, P.; Griggs, J. A.; Hindmarsh, R. C. A.; Holmlund, P.; Holt, J. W.; Jacobel, R. W.; Jenkins, A.; Jokat, W.; Jordan, T.; King, E. C.; Kohler, J.; Krabill, W.; Riger-Kusk, M.; Langley, K. A.; Leitchenkov, G.; Leuschen, C.; Luyendyk, B. P.; Matsuoka, K.; Mouginot, J.; Nitsche, F. O.; Nogi, Y.; Nost, O. A.; Popov, S. V.; Rignot, E.; Rippin, D. M.; Rivera, A.; Roberts, J.; Ross, N.; Siegert, M. J.; Smith, A. M.; Steinhage, D.; Studinger, M.; Sun, B.; Tinto, B. K.; Welch, B. C.; Wilson, D.; Young, D. A.; Xiangbin, C.; Zirizzotti, A. (28 February 2013).

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policy documents. Only around a third of respondents from Asian and South American countries have done so. This compares with 50% in Africa, and over 75% in Europe, Australasia and North America. Some 56% of all surveyed planners have plans which account for 2050 and 2100 sea level rise. But 53% use only a single projection rather than a range of two or three projections. Just 14% use four projections, including the one for "extreme" or "high-end" sea level rise. Another study found that over 75% of regional sea level rise assessments from the

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determine which outcomes are more or less likely, which is known as "shifted SEJ". Semi-empirical techniques can be combined with the so-called "intermediate-complexity" models. After 2016, some ice sheet modelling exhibited the so-called ice cliff instability in Antarctica, which results in substantially faster disintegration and retreat than otherwise simulated. The differences are limited with low warming, but at higher warming levels, ice cliff instability predicts far greater sea level rise than any other approach.

3006: 18926: 1245: 14988: 2634: 14485: 626: 2551: 2447: 1588:(EAIS). It is 2.2 km thick on average and holds enough ice to raise global sea levels by 53.3 m (174 ft 10 in) Its great thickness and high elevation make it more stable than the other ice sheets. As of the early 2020s, most studies show that it is still gaining mass. Some analyses have suggested it began to lose mass in the 2000s. However they over-extrapolated some observed losses on to the poorly observed areas. A more complete observational record shows continued mass gain. 1400: 1880:, but there would still be cause greater ice losses and sea level rise from Greenland than if the threshold was not breached in the first place. If the tipping point instead is durably but mildly crossed, the ice sheet would take between 10,000 and 15,000 years to disintegrate entirel, with a most likely estimate of 10,000 years. If climate change continues along its worst trajectory and temperatures continue to rise quickly over multiple centuries, it would only take 1,000 years. 3074: 549: 1502: 1349: 1157: 18938: 17446: 15876: 17434: 15897: 14443: 14429: 2687: 55: 14471: 291: 2310: 1446:, are likely to increase in the 21st century. They store most of the land ice (~99.5%) and have a sea-level equivalent (SLE) of 7.4 m (24 ft 3 in) for Greenland and 58.3 m (191 ft 3 in) for Antarctica. Thus, melting of all the ice on Earth would result in about 70 m (229 ft 8 in) of sea level rise, although this would require at least 10,000 years and up to 10 °C (18 °F) of global warming. 390: 14457: 17470: 17458: 1647: 14977: 15886: 564:(MICI). These processes are mainly associated with West Antarctic Ice Sheet, but may also apply to some of Greenland's glaciers. The former suggests that when glaciers are mostly underwater on retrograde (backwards-sloping) bedrock, the water melts more and more of their height as their retreat continues, thus accelerating their breakdown on its own. This is widely accepted, but is difficult to model. 12530: 9980: 9571: 3410: 1423:, water inflow from melting ice sheets and water inflow from glaciers. Other factors affecting sea level rise include changes in snow mass, and flow from terrestrial water storage, though the contribution from these is thought to be small. Glacier retreat and ocean expansion have dominated sea level rise since the start of the 20th century. Some of the losses from glaciers are offset when 3634: 2388: 1690: 526:

excluding detailed estimates the impact of "low-confidence" processes like marine ice sheet and marine ice cliff instability, which can substantially accelerate ice loss to potentially add "tens of centimeters" to sea level rise within this century. AR6 includes a version of SSP5-8.5 where these processes take place, and in that case, sea level rise of up to 1.6 m (

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involve adaptation against flooding. Effective adaptation measures could reduce future annual costs of flooding in 136 of the world's largest coastal cities from $ 1 trillion by 2050 without adaptation to a little over $ 60 billion annually. The cost would be $ 50 billion per year. Some experts argue that retreat from the coast would have a lower impact on the

1933: in) and ~15 cm (6 in) to sea level rise, respectively. Glacier mass is disproportionately concentrated in the most resilient glaciers. So in practice this would remove 49-83% of glacier formations. It further estimated that the current likely trajectory of 2.7 °C (4.9 °F) would result in the SLR contribution of ~11 cm ( 1901:. However, this small size also makes mountain glaciers more vulnerable to melting than the larger ice sheets. This means they have had a disproportionate contribution to historical sea level rise and are set to contribute a smaller, but still significant fraction of sea level rise in the 21st century. Observational and modelling studies of 1799:

0.07 mm per year between 1992 and 1997 to 0.68 mm per year between 2012 and 2017. Total ice loss from the Greenland ice sheet between 1992 and 2018 amounted to 3,902 gigatons (Gt) of ice. This is equivalent to a SLR contribution of 10.8 mm. The contribution for the 2012–2016 period was equivalent to 37% of sea level rise from

2143:. These figures are 40 million and 50 million more respectively than the numbers at risk in 2010. By 2100, there would be another 40 million people under the water line during high tide if sea level rise remains low. This figure would be 80 million for a high estimate of median sea level rise. Ice sheet processes under the highest 2267:, but there is limited research on this. There is insufficient knowledge about the investments necessary to protect ports currently in use. This includes protecting current facilities before it becomes more reasonable to build new ports elsewhere. Some coastal regions are rich agricultural lands. Their loss to the sea could cause 1537:. However it is gaining mass from the increased snow build-up inland, particularly in the East. This leads to contradicting trends. There are different satellite methods for measuring ice mass and change. Combining them helps to reconcile the differences. However, there can still be variations between the studies. In 2018, a 1375:. Sea levels during that warmer interglacial were at least 5 m (16 ft) higher than now. The Eemian warming was sustained over a period of thousands of years. The size of the rise in sea level implies a large contribution from the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets. Levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide of around 400 107:. If there are very deep cuts in emissions, sea level rise would slow between 2050 and 2100. It could then reach by 2100 slightly over 30 cm (1 ft) from now and approximately 60 cm (2 ft) from the 19th century. With high emissions it would instead accelerate further, and could rise by 1.01 m ( 2204:. Ten percent of the world's population live in coastal areas that are less than 10 metres (33 ft) above sea level. Two thirds of the world's cities with over five million people are located in these low-lying coastal areas. About 600 million people live directly on the coast around the world. Cities such as 58: 1872: in) of future sea level rise. At a certain level of global warming, the Greenland ice sheet will almost completely melt. Ice cores show this happened at least once over the last million years, during which the temperatures have at most been 2.5 °C (4.5 °F) warmer than the preindustrial average. 57: 62: 61: 56: 63: 2736:

137.5 billion on average: in the worst case, these damages could effectively triple. In all of these estimates, around half of the damages would occur in the Egyptian city of Alexandria. Hundreds of thousands of people in its low-lying areas may already need relocation in the coming decade. Across

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amplifies risks from sea level rise. Some 54.2 million people lived in the highly exposed low elevation coastal zones (LECZ) around 2000. This number will effectively double to around 110 million people by 2030, and then reach 185 to 230 million people by 2060. By then, the average regional

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protect against storm surges, waves and tsunamis, so their loss makes the effects of sea level rise worse. Human activities such as dam building may restrict sediment supplies to wetlands. This would prevent natural adaptation processes. The loss of some tidal marshes is unavoidable as a consequence.

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is an important guide to where current changes in sea level will end up. In the recent geological past, thermal expansion from increased temperatures and changes in land ice are the dominant reasons of sea level rise. The last time that the Earth was 2 °C (3.6 °F) warmer than pre-industrial

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is likely to dominate very long-term SLR, especially if the warming exceeds 2 °C (3.6 °F). Continued carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel sources could cause additional tens of metres of sea level rise, over the next millennia. Burning of all fossil fuels on Earth is sufficient to melt

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period appears truly consistent with this theory, but it had lasted for an estimated 900 years, so it is unclear if it supports rapid sea level rise in the present. Modelling which investigated the hypothesis after 2016 often suggested that the ice shelves in the real world may collapse too slowly to

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Although their methods of interpolation or extrapolation for areas with unobserved output velocities have an insufficient description for the evaluation of associated errors, such errors in previous results (Rignot and others, 2008) caused large overestimates of the mass losses as detailed in Zwally

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Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M. I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J. B. R. Matthews, T. K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, US,

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in the US increased 2 times in the years 2000–2020, reaching 3–7 days per year. In some areas the increase was much stronger: 4 times in the Southeast Atlantic and 11 times in the Western Gulf. By the year 2030 the average number is expected to be 7–15 days, reaching 25–75 days by 2050. U.S. coastal

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When a glacier or ice sheet melts, it loses mass. This reduces its gravitational pull. In some places near current and former glaciers and ice sheets, this has caused water levels to drop. At the same time water levels will increase more than average further away from the ice sheet. Thus ice loss in

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paper estimated that almost no mountain glaciers could survive once warming crosses 2 °C (3.6 °F). Their complete loss is largely inevitable around 3 °C (5.4 °F). There is even a possibility of complete loss after 2100 at just 1.5 °C (2.7 °F). This could happen as early

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fails and would no longer stabilize it, which could potentially occur in mid-2020s. A combination of ice sheet instability with other important but hard-to-model processes like hydrofracturing (meltwater collects atop the ice sheet, pools into fractures and forces them open) or smaller-scale changes

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projections from 2020 (lower left), research modelling the possibility of ice cliff instability (upper right) and combined expert projections of sea level rise from Greenland and Antarctica (lower right) were all considered before settling on the projections. Note that projections on the right use a

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Variations of these primary approaches exist. For instance, large climate models are always in demand, so less complex models are often used in their place for simpler tasks like projecting flood risk in the specific regions. A structured expert judgement may be used in combination with modelling to

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Christ, Andrew J.; Bierman, Paul R.; Schaefer, Joerg M.; Dahl-Jensen, Dorthe; Steffensen, Jørgen P.; Corbett, Lee B.; Peteet, Dorothy M.; Thomas, Elizabeth K.; Steig, Eric J.; Rittenour, Tammy M.; Tison, Jean-Louis; Blard, Pierre-Henri; Perdrial, Nicolas; Dethier, David P.; Lini, Andrea; Hidy, Alan

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Kopp, Robert E.; Garner, Gregory G.; Hermans, Tim H. J.; Jha, Shantenu; Kumar, Praveen; Reedy, Alexander; Slangen, Aimée B. A.; Turilli, Matteo; Edwards, Tamsin L.; Gregory, Jonathan M.; Koubbe, George; Levermann, Anders; Merzky, Andre; Nowicki, Sophie; Palmer, Matthew D.; Smith, Chris (21 December

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Modelling results predict that Asia will suffer direct economic damages of US$ 167.6 billion at 0.47 meters of sea level rise. This rises to US$ 272.3 billion at 1.12 meters and US$ 338.1 billion at 1.75 meters. There is an additional indirect impact of US$ 8.5, 24 or 15 billion

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Changes in emissions are likely to have only a small effect on the extent of sea level rise by 2050. So projected sea level rise could put tens of millions of people at risk by then. Scientists estimate that 2050 levels of sea level rise would result in about 150 million people under the water line

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On the other hand, the whole EAIS would not definitely collapse until global warming reaches 7.5 °C (13.5 °F), with a range between 5 °C (9.0 °F) and 10 °C (18 °F). It would take at least 10,000 years to disappear. Some scientists have estimated that warming would have

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assessed several studies attempting to estimate 2300 sea level rise caused by ice loss in Antarctica alone, arriving at projected estimates of 0.07–0.37 metres (0.23–1.21 ft) for the low emission RCP2.6 scenario, and 0.60–2.89 metres (2.0–9.5 ft) in the high emission RCP8.5 scenario. This

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Together with satellite data for the period after 1992, this network established that global mean sea level rose 19.5 cm (7.7 in) between 1870 and 2004 at an average rate of about 1.44 mm/yr. (For the 20th century the average is 1.7 mm/yr.) By 2018, data collected by Australia's

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propping them up are gone. The collapse then exposes the ice masses following them to the same instability, potentially resulting in a self-sustaining cycle of cliff collapse and rapid ice sheet retreat. This theory had been highly influential - in a 2020 survey of 106 experts, the 2016 paper which

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Kjeldsen, Kristian K.; Korsgaard, Niels J.; Bjørk, Anders A.; Khan, Shfaqat A.; Box, Jason E.; Funder, Svend; Larsen, Nicolaj K.; Bamber, Jonathan L.; Colgan, William; van den Broeke, Michiel; Siggaard-Andersen, Marie-Louise; Nuth, Christopher; Schomacker, Anders; Andresen, Camilla S.; Willerslev,

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Because Thwaites sits below sea level on ground that dips away from the coast, the warm water is likely to melt its way inland, beneath the glacier itself, freeing its underbelly from bedrock. A collapse of the entire glacier, which some researchers think is only centuries away, would raise global

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Pattyn, Frank; Ritz, Catherine; Hanna, Edward; Asay-Davis, Xylar; DeConto, Rob; Durand, Gaël; Favier, Lionel; Fettweis, Xavier; Goelzer, Heiko; Golledge, Nicholas R.; Kuipers Munneke, Peter; Lenaerts, Jan T. M.; Nowicki, Sophie; Payne, Antony J.; Robinson, Alexander; Seroussi, Hélène; Trusel, Luke

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are taking similar steps. Even when an island is not threatened with complete disappearance from flooding, tourism and local economies may end up devastated. For instance, sea level rise of 1.0 m (3 ft 3 in) would cause partial or complete inundation of 29% of coastal resorts in the

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2012 modelling suggested that the tipping point of the ice sheet was between 0.8 °C (1.4 °F) and 3.2 °C (5.8 °F). 2023 modelling has narrowed the tipping threshold to a 1.7 °C (3.1 °F)-2.3 °C (4.1 °F) range, which is consistent with the empirical 2.5 °C

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and act as a buffer against its effects. This means that the same amount of heat that would increase the average world ocean temperature by 0.01 °C (0.018 °F) would increase atmospheric temperature by approximately 10 °C (18 °F). So a small change in the mean temperature of the

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Variations in the amount of water in the oceans, changes in its volume, or varying land elevation compared to the sea surface can drive sea level changes. Over a consistent time period, assessments can attribute contributions to sea level rise and provide early indications of change in trajectory.

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By 2013, improvements in modelling had addressed this issue, and model and semi-empirical projections for the year 2100 are now very similar. Yet, semi-empirical estimates are reliant on the quality of available observations and struggle to represent non-linearities, while processes without enough

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Hirschfeld, Daniella; Behar, David; Nicholls, Robert J.; Cahill, Niamh; James, Thomas; Horton, Benjamin P.; Portman, Michelle E.; Bell, Rob; Campo, Matthew; Esteban, Miguel; Goble, Bronwyn; Rahman, Munsur; Appeaning Addo, Kwasi; Chundeli, Faiz Ahmed; Aunger, Monique; Babitsky, Orly; Beal, Anders;

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Roberts, Jason; Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K.; Paolo, Fernando S.; Donnelly, Claire; Gwyther, David E.; Padman, Laurie; Young, Duncan; Warner, Roland; Greenbaum, Jamin; Fricker, Helen A.; Payne, Antony J.; Cornford, Stephen; Le Brocq, Anne; van Ommen, Tas; Blankenship, Don; Siegert, Martin J. (2018).

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To be successful, adaptation must anticipate sea level rise well ahead of time. As of 2023, the global state of adaptation planning is mixed. A survey of 253 planners from 49 countries found that 98% are aware of sea level rise projections, but 26% have not yet formally integrated them into their

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which is 3 km (10,000 ft) at its thickest. The rest of Greenland ice forms isolated glaciers and ice caps. The average annual ice loss in Greenland more than doubled in the early 21st century compared to the 20th century. Its contribution to sea level rise correspondingly increased from

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are periods of fast sea level rise caused by the rapid disintegration of these ice sheets. The rate of sea level rise started to slow down about 8,200 years before today. Sea level was almost constant for the last 2,500 years. The recent trend of rising sea level started at the end of the 19th or

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has been continuously recording the sea level and its changes. These satellites can measure the hills and valleys in the sea caused by currents and detect trends in their height. To measure the distance to the sea surface, the satellites send a microwave pulse towards Earth and record the time it

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The lowest scenario in AR5, RCP2.6, would see greenhouse gas emissions low enough to meet the goal of limiting warming by 2100 to 2 °C (3.6 °F). It shows sea level rise in 2100 of about 44 cm (17 in) with a range of 28–61 cm (11–24 in). The "moderate" scenario, where

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is likely to displace 0.9-2.1 million people by 2050. It may also force the relocation of up to one third of power plants as early as 2030, and many of the remaining plants would have to deal with the increased salinity of their cooling water. Nations like Bangladesh, Vietnam and China with

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region. At least 750,000 people there are likely to be displaced from the coasts between 2020 and 2050. By 2050, 12 major African cities would collectively sustain cumulative damages of US$ 65 billion for the "moderate" climate change scenario RCP4.5 and between US$ 86.5 billion to US$

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not in contact with water are less vulnerable than the majority of the ice sheet, which is located below the sea level. Its collapse would cause ~3.3 m (10 ft 10 in) of sea level rise. This disappearance would take an estimated 2000 years. The absolute minimum for the loss of West

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probably lies at around 3 °C (5.4 °F) of global warming. It may be as high as 6 °C (11 °F) or as low as 2 °C (3.6 °F). Once this tipping point is crossed, the collapse of these subglacial basins could take place over as little as 500 or as much as 10,000 years. The

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had matched the upper-end range of the AR5 projections by 2020, and the finding that AR5 projections were likely too slow next to an extrapolation of observed sea level rise trends, while the subsequent reports had improved in this regard. Further, AR5 was criticized by multiple researchers for

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and freshwater caused by sea level rise. Sea level rise may make an island uninhabitable before it is completely flooded. Already, children in small island states encounter hampered access to food and water. They suffer an increased rate of mental and social disorders due to these stresses. At

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and local community adaptation. This usually involves simple, modular and locally owned technology. The two types of adaptation may be complementary or mutually exclusive. Adaptation options often require significant investment. But the costs of doing nothing are far greater. One example would

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Greenland's peripheral glaciers and ice caps crossed an irreversible tipping point around 1997. Sea level rise from their loss is now unstoppable. However the temperature changes in future, the warming of 2000–2019 had already damaged the ice sheet enough for it to eventually lose ~3.3% of its

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water. Damage to ports disrupts sea trade. The sea level rise projected by 2050 will expose places currently inhabited by tens of millions of people to annual flooding. Without a sharp reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, this may increase to hundreds of millions in the latter decades of the

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Fretwell, P.; Pritchard, H. D.; Vaughan, D. G.; Bamber, J. L.; Barrand, N. E.; Bell, R.; Bianchi, C.; Bingham, R. G.; Blankenship, D. D.; Casassa, G.; Catania, G.; Callens, D.; Conway, H.; Cook, A. J.; Corr, H. F. J.; Damaske, D.; Damm, V.; Ferraccioli, F.; Forsberg, R.; Fujita, S.; Gim, Y.;

135: ft) by 2100. In the long run, sea level rise would amount to 2–3 m (7–10 ft) over the next 2000 years if warming stays to its current 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) over the pre-industrial past. It would be 19–22 metres (62–72 ft) if warming peaks at 5 °C (9.0 °F). 2662:

had only a single estimate. Similarly, no assessment from the South went beyond 2100. By contrast 14 assessments from the West went up to 2150, and three from the Northeast went to 2200. 56% of all localities were also found to underestimate the upper end of sea level rise relative to

1876:(4.5 °F) upper limit from ice cores. If temperatures reach or exceed that level, reducing the global temperature to 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) above pre-industrial levels or lower would prevent the loss of the entire ice sheet. One way to do this in theory would be large-scale 60: 13766: 5563:

Horton, Benjamin P.; Khan, Nicole S.; Cahill, Niamh; Lee, Janice S. H.; Shaw, Timothy A.; Garner, Andra J.; Kemp, Andrew C.; Engelhart, Simon E.; Rahmstorf, Stefan (2020-05-08). "Estimating global mean sea-level rise and its uncertainties by 2100 and 2300 from an expert survey".

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rose by 15–25 cm (6–10 in), with an increase of 2.3 mm (0.091 in) per year since the 1970s. This was faster than the sea level had ever risen over at least the past 3,000 years. The rate accelerated to 4.62 mm (0.182 in)/yr for the decade 2013–2022.

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are important for bird and fish life. They need to grow vertically to remain close to the sea surface in order to get enough energy from sunlight. The corals have so far been able to keep up the vertical growth with the rising seas, but might not be able to do so in the future.

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is the largest and most influential scientific organization on climate change, and since 1990, it provides several plausible scenarios of 21st century sea level rise in each of its major reports. The differences between scenarios are mainly due to uncertainty about future

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show they contribute 0.2-0.4 mm per year to sea level rise, averaged over the 20th century. The contribution for the 2012–2016 period was nearly as large as that of Greenland. It was 0.63 mm of sea level rise per year, equivalent to 34% of sea level rise from

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Some ecosystems can move inland with the high-water mark. But natural or artificial barriers prevent many from migrating. This coastal narrowing is sometimes called 'coastal squeeze' when it involves human-made barriers. It could result in the loss of habitats such as

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Greenbaum, J. S.; Blankenship, D. D.; Young, D. A.; Richter, T. G.; Roberts, J. L.; Aitken, A. R. A.; Legresy, B.; Schroeder, D. M.; Warner, R. C.; van Ommen, T. D.; Siegert, M. J. (16 March 2015). "Ocean access to a cavity beneath Totten Glacier in East Antarctica".

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emissions. These depend on future economic developments, and also future political action which is hard to predict. Each scenario provides an estimate for sea level rise as a range with a lower and upper limit to reflect the unknowns. The scenarios in the 2013–2014

1379:(similar to 2000s) had increased temperature by over 2–3 °C (3.6–5.4 °F) around three million years ago. This temperature increase eventually melted one third of Antarctica's ice sheet, causing sea levels to rise 20 meters above the preindustrial levels. 1692: 3684:; Xiao, C.; Aðalgeirsdóttir, G.; Drijfhout, S. S.; Edwards, T. L.; Golledge, N. R.; Hemer, M.; Kopp, R. E.; Krinner, G.; Mix, A. (2021). Masson-Delmotte, V.; Zhai, P.; Pirani, A.; Connors, S. L.; Péan, C.; Berger, S.; Caud, N.; Chen, Y.; Goldfarb, L. (eds.). 3254:

levels are already below sea level. This places those groundwater reservoirs at risk of sea water intrusion. That would render fresh water unusable once its concentration exceeds 2-3%. Damage is also widespread in Canada. It will affect major cities like

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in ocean circulation could cause the WAIS to contribute up to 41 cm (16 in) by 2100 under the low-emission scenario and up to 57 cm (22 in) under the highest-emission one. Ice cliff instability would cause a contribution of 1 m (

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The main contributors to sea level rise, and how much they are expected to add by the end of the century under the low-emission scenario ("SSP1-2.6") and the high-emission scenario ("SSP5-8.5"). The Antarctic ice sheet is the least certain contributor

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estimated average annual ice loss of 43 billion tons (Gt) across the entire continent between 1992 and 2002. This tripled to an annual average of 220 Gt from 2012 to 2017. However, a 2021 analysis of data from four different research satellite systems

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Rounce, David R.; Hock, Regine; Maussion, Fabien; Hugonnet, Romain; Kochtitzky, William; Huss, Matthias; Berthier, Etienne; Brinkerhoff, Douglas; Compagno, Loris; Copland, Luke; Farinotti, Daniel; Menounos, Brian; McNabb, Robert W. (5 January 2023).

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feedbacks to reduce the sea levels by 2 cm (1 in). In the worst case, it adds 15 cm (6 in). For SSP5-8.5, the best-case scenario is adding 5 cm (2 in) to sea levels, and the worst-case is adding 23 cm (9 in).

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2023 projections of how much the Greenland ice sheet may shrink from its present extent by the year 2300 under the worst possible climate change scenario (upper half) and of how much faster its remaining ice will be flowing in that case (lower

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If countries cut greenhouse gas emissions significantly (lowest trace), sea level rise by 2100 will be limited to 0.3 to 0.6 meters (1–2 feet). However, in a worst-case scenario (top trace), sea levels could rise 5 meters (16 feet) by the year

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Due to these uncertainties, some scientists - including the originators of the hypothesis, Robert DeConto and David Pollard - have suggested that the best way to resolve the question would be to precisely determine sea level rise during the

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Based on national pledges to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, global mean temperature is projected to increase by 2.7 °C (4.9 °F), which would cause loss of about half of Earth's glaciers by 2100—causing a sea level rise of 115±40

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Marine ice cliff instability had also been very controversial, since it was proposed as a modelling exercise, and the observational evidence from both the past and the present is very limited and ambiguous. So far, only one episode of

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to reduce damage from floods, addition of storm water valves to address more frequent and severe flooding at high tide, or cultivating crops more tolerant of saltwater in the soil, even at an increased cost. These options divide into

237:. Sometimes these adaptation strategies go hand in hand. At other times choices must be made among different strategies. Poorer nations may also struggle to implement the same approaches to adapt to sea level rise as richer states. 249:

Earth lost 28 trillion tonnes of ice between 1994 and 2017: ice sheets and glaciers raised the global sea level by 34.6 ± 3.1 mm. The rate of ice loss has risen by 57% since the 1990s − from 0.8 to 1.2 trillion tonnes per

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Box, Jason E.; Hubbard, Alun; Bahr, David B.; Colgan, William T.; Fettweis, Xavier; Mankoff, Kenneth D.; Wehrlé, Adrien; Noël, Brice; van den Broeke, Michiel R.; Wouters, Bert; Bjørk, Anders A.; Fausto, Robert S. (29 August 2022).

1565:, which block warmer currents from direct contact with the ice sheet, can accelerate declines even in East Antarctica. Altogether, Antarctica is the source of the largest uncertainty for future sea level projections. In 2019, the 11460:

Kumara, M. P.; Jayatissa, L. P.; Krauss, K. W.; Phillips, D. H.; Huxham, M. (2010). "High mangrove density enhances surface accretion, surface elevation change, and tree survival in coastal areas susceptible to sea-level rise".

1492:

water will expand less than warm tropical water. Different climate models present slightly different patterns of ocean heating. So their projections do not agree fully on how much ocean heating contributes to sea level rise.

1386:, about 20,000 years ago, sea level has risen by more than 125 metres (410 ft). Rates vary from less than 1 mm/year during the pre-industrial era to 40+ mm/year when major ice sheets over Canada and Eurasia melted. 294:

Sea level rise for the low-emission, high-emission (RCP 8.5, lower left) and in-between scenarios according to the different approaches. Projections are very similar for low warming, but disagreement increases alongside the

12433:

van der Hurk, Bart; Bisaro, Alexander; Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Nicholls, Robert J.; Rehdanz, Katrin; Stuparu, Dana (28 January 2022). "Living with sea-level rise in North-West Europe: Science-policy challenges across scales".

9597: 1777:

intervention to stabilize the ice sheet's glaciers may delay its loss by centuries and give more time to adapt. However this is an uncertain proposal, and would end up as one of the most expensive projects ever attempted.

2727:

are likely to have the largest number of people affected by annual flooding amongst all African countries. And under RCP8.5, 10 important cultural sites would be at risk of flooding and erosion by the end of the century.

2612:

adaptation. Hard adaptation generally involves large-scale changes to human societies and ecological systems. It often includes the construction of capital-intensive infrastructure. Soft adaptation involves strengthening

9063:

Golledge, Nicholas R.; Keller, Elizabeth D.; Gomez, Natalya; Naughten, Kaitlin A.; Bernales, Jorge; Trusel, Luke D.; Edwards, Tamsin L. (2019). "Global environmental consequences of twenty-first-century ice-sheet melt".

3170:

up to 1.3 m (4 ft 3 in) by 2100 and plan for a 2–4 m (7–13 ft) rise by 2200. It advised annual spending between €1.0 and €1.5 billion. This would support measures such as broadening coastal

2175: ft), This could result in as many as 520 million additional people ending up under the water line during high tide and 640 million in places flooded every year, compared to the 2010 population distribution. 13319: 11241:

Rivas, Marga L.; Rodríguez-Caballero, Emilio; Esteban, Nicole; Carpio, Antonio J.; Barrera-Vilarmau, Barbara; Fuentes, Mariana M. P. B.; Robertson, Katharine; Azanza, Julia; León, Yolanda; Ortega, Zaida (2023-04-20).

3397:, costing up to US$ 14 billion. In nine southeast US states, the same level of sea level rise would claim up to 13,000 historical and archaeological sites, including over 1000 sites eligible for inclusion in the 1481:

ocean represents a very large change in the total heat content of the climate system. Winds and currents move heat into deeper parts of the ocean. Some of it reaches depths of more than 2,000 m (6,600 ft).

11346: 13237: 11859: 1734:

The contribution of these glaciers to global sea levels has already accelerated since the year 2000. The Thwaites Glacier now accounts for 4% of global sea level rise. It could start to lose even more ice if the

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Sea levels would continue to rise for several thousand years after the ceasing of emissions, due to the slow nature of climate response to heat. The same estimates on a timescale of 10,000 years project that:

6050:

Dumitru, Oana A.; Dyer, Blake; Austermann, Jacqueline; Sandstrom, Michael R.; Goldstein, Steven L.; D'Andrea, William J.; Cashman, Miranda; Creel, Roger; Bolge, Louise; Raymo, Maureen E. (15 September 2023).

428:

does not plateau until the 2070s is called RCP 4.5. Its likely range of sea level rise is 36–71 cm (14–28 in). The highest scenario in RCP8.5 pathway sea level would rise between 52 and 98 cm

12857: 9290:

Hein, Andrew S.; Woodward, John; Marrero, Shasta M.; Dunning, Stuart A.; Steig, Eric J.; Freeman, Stewart P. H. T.; Stuart, Finlay M.; Winter, Kate; Westoby, Matthew J.; Sugden, David E. (3 February 2016).

5625: 2024:

retain large quantities of water, which is stored on land rather than flowing into the sea, though the total quantity stored will vary from time to time. On the other hand, humans extract water from lakes,

1223:

Satellites are useful for measuring regional variations in sea level. An example is the substantial rise between 1993 and 2012 in the western tropical Pacific. This sharp rise has been linked to increasing

673: ft). As of 2023, the most recent analysis indicates that the Last Interglacial SLR is unlikely to have been higher than 2.7 m (9 ft), as higher values in other research, such as 5.7 m ( 1256:

is the other important source of sea-level observations. Compared to the satellite record, this record has major spatial gaps but covers a much longer period. Coverage of tide gauges started mainly in the

516:

This general increase of projections in AR6 came after the improvements in ice-sheet modelling and the incorporation of structured expert judgements. These decisions came as the observed ice-sheet erosion

3151:. The UK has divided its coast into 22 areas, each covered by a Shoreline Management Plan. Those are sub-divided into 2000 management units, working across three periods of 0–20, 20-50 and 50–100 years. 103:'s temperature by many decades, and sea level rise will therefore continue to accelerate between now and 2050 in response to warming that has already happened. What happens after that depends on human 2200:

Over the longer term, coastal areas are particularly vulnerable to rising sea levels. They are also vulnerable to changes in the frequency and intensity of storms, increased precipitation, and rising

11075: 8980: 59: 12803:

Abidin, Hasanuddin Z.; Andreas, Heri; Gumilar, Irwan; Fukuda, Yoichi; Pohan, Yusuf E.; Deguchi, T. (11 June 2011). "Land subsidence of Jakarta (Indonesia) and its relation with urban development".

10992: 3493:

already have to consider controlled international migration of their population in response to rising seas. The alternative of uncontrolled migration threatens to worsen the humanitarian crisis of

1628:

median timeline is 2000 years. Depending on how many subglacial basins are vulnerable, this causes sea level rise of between 1.4 m (4 ft 7 in) and 6.4 m (21 ft 0 in).

2131:

of low-lying coastal zones exacerbate coastal flooding impacts. Regions already vulnerable to rising sea level also struggle with coastal flooding. This washes away land and alters the landscape.

12478:

Boyle, Ray; Fang, Jiayi; Gohar, Amir; Hanson, Susan; Karamesines, Saul; Kim, M. J.; Lohmann, Hilary; McInnes, Kathy; Mimura, Nobuo; Ramsay, Doug; Wenger, Landis; Yokoki, Hiromune (3 April 2023).

1727:

glaciers. If these glaciers were to collapse, the entire ice sheet would as well. Their disappearance would take at least several centuries, but is considered almost inevitable, as their bedrock

738: ft) increase due to the same. The same estimate found that if the temperature stabilized below 2 °C (3.6 °F), 2300 sea level rise would still exceed 1.5 m (5 ft). Early 4116: 2965:

beaches is likely to intensify by 60% by 2030. Without adaptation there would be a big impact on tourism. Adaptation costs for sea level rise would be three times higher under the high-emission

1236:(ENSO) change from one state to the other. The PDO is a basin-wide climate pattern consisting of two phases, each commonly lasting 10 to 30 years. The ENSO has a shorter period of 2 to 7 years. 67:

Sea surface height change from 1992 to 2019: Blue regions are where sea level has gone down, and orange/red regions are where sea level has risen (the visualization is based on satellite data).

13894: 2049:. In the 20th century, these processes had approximately cancelled out each other's impact on sea level rise, but dam building has slowed down and is expected to stay low for the 21st century. 1919:

paper estimated that at 1.5 °C (2.7 °F), one quarter of mountain glacier mass would be lost by 2100 and nearly half would be lost at 4 °C (7.2 °F), contributing ~9 cm (

13696:

Strauss, Benjamin H.; Orton, Philip M.; Bittermann, Klaus; Buchanan, Maya K.; Gilford, Daniel M.; Kopp, Robert E.; Kulp, Scott; Massey, Chris; Moel, Hans de; Vinogradov, Sergey (18 May 2021).

12099:

Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change . Cambridge University Press. In Press. - Cross-Chapter Box SLR: Sea Level Rise

11110: 7572:

Armstrong McKay, David; Abrams, Jesse; Winkelmann, Ricarda; Sakschewski, Boris; Loriani, Sina; Fetzer, Ingo; Cornell, Sarah; Rockström, Johan; Staal, Arie; Lenton, Timothy (9 September 2022).

319:

available information about them cannot be modelled. Thus, another approach is to combine the opinions of a large number of scientists in what is known as a structured expert judgement (SEJ).

13851: 11375: 13664:

Hicke, J.A., S. Lucatello, L.D., Mortsch, J. Dawson, M. Domínguez Aguilar, C.A.F. Enquist, E.A. Gilmore, D.S. Gutzler, S. Harper, K. Holsman, E.B. Jewett, T.A. Kohler, and KA. Miller, 2022:

12909:

Castellanos, E., M.F. Lemos, L. Astigarraga, N. Chacón, N. Cuvi, C. Huggel, L. Miranda, M. Moncassim Vale, J.P. Ometto, P.L. Peri, J.C. Postigo, L. Ramajo, L. Roco, and M. Rusticucci, 2022:

8798:

Ludescher, Josef; Bunde, Armin; Franzke, Christian L. E.; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim (16 April 2015). "Long-term persistence enhances uncertainty about anthropogenic warming of Antarctica".

5493:

Dow, Christine F.; Lee, Won Sang; Greenbaum, Jamin S.; Greene, Chad A.; Blankenship, Donald D.; Poinar, Kristin; Forrest, Alexander L.; Young, Duncan A.; Zappa, Christopher J. (2018-06-01).

8578: 4893:"The Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS) v1.0: a platform for characterizing parametric and structural uncertainty in future global, relative, and extreme sea-level change" 4859: 1128:

This helps to inform adaptation plans. The different techniques used to measure changes in sea level do not measure exactly the same level. Tide gauges can only measure relative sea level.

258:

measurements found an increase of 7.5 cm (3.0 in) from 1993 to 2017 (average of 2.9 mm (0.11 in)/yr). This accelerated to 4.62 mm (0.182 in)/yr for 2013–2022.

8914: 4030: 3515:

supply to combat erosion instead of relocating entirely. Fiji has also issued a green bond of $ 50 million to invest in green initiatives and fund adaptation efforts. It is restoring

2135:

during high tide. About 300 million would be in places flooded every year. This projection is based on the distribution of population in 2010. It does not take into account the effects of

9938:

King, Michalea D.; Howat, Ian M.; Candela, Salvatore G.; Noh, Myoung J.; Jeong, Seongsu; Noël, Brice P. Y.; van den Broeke, Michiel R.; Wouters, Bert; Negrete, Adelaide (13 August 2020).

8056: 1693: 14223: 552:

The stages of marine ice sheet (top) and marine ice cliff (bottom) instabilities. Dashed lines show that the retreat would be much more rapid if ice cliff instability were applicable

7913: 14099: 14035: 7309:

Trisos, C. H., I. O. Adelekan, E. Totin, A. Ayanlade, J. Efitre, A. Gemeda, K. Kalaba, C. Lennard, C. Masao, Y. Mgaya, G. Ngaruiya, D. Olago, N. P. Simpson, and S. Zakieldeen 2022:

10897: 10822:

McGranahan, Gordon; Balk, Deborah; Anderson, Bridget (29 June 2016). "The rising tide: assessing the risks of climate change and human settlements in low elevation coastal zones".

5891: 13210: 3858:

This corresponds to a mean sea-level rise of about 7.5 cm over the whole altimetry period. More importantly, the GMSL curve shows a net acceleration, estimated to be at 0.08mm/yr.

1566: 186:

is likely to be two to three times greater than the global average by the end of the century. Yet, of the 20 countries with the greatest exposure to sea level rise, twelve are in

4190:

Shaw, R., Y. Luo, T. S. Cheong, S. Abdul Halim, S. Chaturvedi, M. Hashizume, G. E. Insarov, Y. Ishikawa, M. Jafari, A. Kitoh, J. Pulhin, C. Singh, K. Vasant, and Z. Zhang, 2022:

14068: 8132: 3729: 4830: 3139:

already exist. Because of its complex geography, the authorities chose a flexible mix of hard and soft measures to cope with sea level rise of over 1 meter per century. In the

651:- debris produced as the glacier breaks down - would quickly build up in front of the glacier and significantly slow or even outright stop the instability soon after it began. 12084:

Cooley, S., D. Schoeman, L. Bopp, P. Boyd, S. Donner, D.Y. Ghebrehiwet, S.-I. Ito, W. Kiessling, P. Martinetto, E. Ojea, M.-F. Racault, B. Rost, and M. Skern-Mauritzen, 2022:

1897:

There are roughly 200,000 glaciers on Earth, which are spread out across all continents. Less than 1% of glacier ice is in mountain glaciers, compared to 99% in Greenland and

9789: 4338: 2471:. The East Coast sea level is rising at 3–4 times the global average. Scientists have linked extreme regional sea level rise on the US Northeast Coast to the downturn of the 17170: 10866: 9348:

Bamber, J.L.; Riva, R.E.M.; Vermeersen, B.L.A.; LeBrocq, A.M. (14 May 2009). "Reassessment of the Potential Sea-Level Rise from a Collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet".

9041: 9009: 11338: 8344:

King, M. A.; Bingham, R. J.; Moore, P.; Whitehouse, P. L.; Bentley, M. J.; Milne, G. A. (2012). "Lower satellite-gravimetry estimates of Antarctic sea-level contribution".

8145:

Melting is taking place in the most vulnerable parts of Antarctica ... parts that hold the potential for multiple metres of sea level rise in the coming century or two

7824: 720:, leading to a longer climate response time. A 2018 paper estimated that sea level rise in 2300 would increase by a median of 20 cm (8 in) for every five years CO 13233: 11851: 9521:

Sasgen, Ingo; Wouters, Bert; Gardner, Alex S.; King, Michalea D.; Tedesco, Marco; Landerer, Felix W.; Dahle, Christoph; Save, Himanshu; Fettweis, Xavier (20 August 2020).

1294: 622:, which hypothesized multi-meter sea level rise in 50-100 years as a plausible outcome of high emissions, but it remains a minority view amongst the scientific community. 2115:. These can lead to a greater loss of property and coastal habitats, loss of life during floods and loss of cultural resources. There are also impacts on agriculture and 14279: 7667: 6912: 2580:

from sea level rise often results in the loss of livelihoods. The displacement of newly impoverished people could burden their new homes and accelerate social tensions.

2501:

and other flood management practices are another. They prevent sediments from accumulating. These would otherwise compensate for the natural settling of deltaic soils.

1699:

A graphical representation of how warm waters, and the Marine Ice Sheet Instability and Marine Ice Cliff Instability processes are affecting the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

1311:

report found further acceleration to 4.62 mm/yr over the 2013–2022 period. These observations help to check and verify predictions from climate change simulations.

13796: 12088: 11885: 9851:

Noël, B.; van de Berg, W. J; Lhermitte, S.; Wouters, B.; Machguth, H.; Howat, I.; Citterio, M.; Moholdt, G.; Lenaerts, J. T. M.; van den Broeke, M. R. (31 March 2017).

3511:

also suffers from sea level rise. It is in a comparatively safer position. Its residents continue to rely on local adaptation like moving further inland and increasing

1769:

Once ice loss from the West Antarctica is triggered, the only way to restore it to near-present values is by lowering the global temperature to 1 °C (1.8 °F)

457: in). AR6 had equivalents for both scenarios, but it estimated larger sea level rise under both. In AR6, the SSP1-2.6 pathway results in a range of 32–62 cm ( 7219: 6092:

Barnett, Robert L.; Austermann, Jacqueline; Dyer, Blake; Telfer, Matt W.; Barlow, Natasha L. M.; Boulton, Sarah J.; Carr, Andrew S.; Creel, Roger (15 September 2023).

2855:

experience the largest economic losses. Out of the 20 coastal cities expected to see the highest flood losses by 2050, 13 are in Asia. Nine of these are the so-called

1707:

estimated increase in sea level rise from Antarctica by 2100 is ~11 cm (5 in). There is no difference between scenarios, because the increased warming would

4961: 3344:

By 2050, coastal flooding in the US is likely to rise tenfold to four "moderate" flooding events per year. That forecast is even without storms or heavy rainfall. In

3187: 2681: 17346: 11220: 7701: 5262:; Tormey, Blair; Donovan, Bailey; Kandiano, Evgeniya; von Schuckmann, Karina; Kharecha, Pushker; Legrande, Allegra N.; Bauer, Michael; Lo, Kwok-Wai (22 March 2016). 1960:

Sea ice loss contributes very slightly to global sea level rise. If the melt water from ice floating in the sea was exactly the same as sea water then, according to

716:

of sea level rise. This is due to the high level of inertia in the carbon cycle and the climate system, owing to factors such as the slow diffusion of heat into the

13829: 12231: 10258:

Aschwanden, Andy; Fahnestock, Mark A.; Truffer, Martin; Brinkerhoff, Douglas J.; Hock, Regine; Khroulev, Constantine; Mottram, Ruth; Khan, S. Abbas (19 June 2019).

8672:

Pan, Linda; Powell, Evelyn M.; Latychev, Konstantin; Mitrovica, Jerry X.; Creveling, Jessica R.; Gomez, Natalya; Hoggard, Mark J.; Clark, Peter U. (30 April 2021).

6649: 3385: ft) of SLR could affect 600,000 people and threaten over US$ 150 billion in property with inundation. This potentially represents over 6% of the state's 17014: 12847: 5617: 5264:"Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 °C global warming could be dangerous" 3938:

Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

1318:, only some land areas are rising while the others are sinking. Since 1970, most tidal stations have measured higher seas. However sea levels along the northern 5258:

Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Hearty, Paul; Ruedy, Reto; Kelley, Maxwell; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Russell, Gary; Tselioudis, George; Cao, Junji; Rignot, Eric;

4563:

Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

3777:

Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

3693:

Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

1488:

and sea level rises. Warmer water and water under great pressure (due to depth) expand more than cooler water and water under less pressure. Consequently, cold

12878:

Lawrence, J., B. Mackey, F. Chiew, M.J. Costello, K. Hennessy, N. Lansbury, U.B. Nidumolu, G. Pecl, L. Rickards, N. Tapper, A. Woodward, and A. Wreford, 2022:

11316: 947:

Map of the Earth with a long-term 6-metre (20 ft) sea level rise represented in red (uniform distribution, actual sea level rise will vary regionally and

9123:

Moorman, Ruth; Morrison, Adele K.; Hogg, Andrew McC (2020-08-01). "Thermal Responses to Antarctic Ice Shelf Melt in an Eddy-Rich Global Ocean–Sea Ice Model".

8438:

Brancato, V.; Rignot, E.; Milillo, P.; Morlighem, M.; Mouginot, J.; An, L.; Scheuchl, B.; Jeong, S.; Rizzoli, P.; Bueso Bello, J.L.; Prats-Iraola, P. (2020).

6505: 4159: 18378: 17717: 17674: 17187: 13668: 12913: 12882: 11072:"Chapter 4: Sea Level Rise and Implications for Low-Lying Islands, Coasts and Communities — Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate" 7313: 4298: 4194: 1623:

are major ice reservoirs together holding as much ice as all of West Antarctica. They are more vulnerable than the rest of East Antarctica. Their collective

14362: 11963: 11071: 10734: 8972: 6162: 3779: 3696: 1314:

Regional differences are also visible in the tide gauge data. Some are caused by local sea level differences. Others are due to vertical land movements. In

17643: 11650: 848: in) to 970 cm (32 ft), respectively. (Negative values represent the extremely low probability of large climate change-induced increases in 659:. MICI can be effectively ruled out if SLR at the time was lower than 4 m (13 ft), while it is very likely if the SLR was greater than 6 m ( 11161: 10984: 8841:

Rignot, Eric; Bamber, Jonathan L.; van den Broeke, Michiel R.; Davis, Curt; Li, Yonghong; van de Berg, Willem Jan; van Meijgaard, Erik (13 January 2008).

6939: 17508: 16623: 16449: 13523: 9916: 7539: 3367:

By 2100, sea level rise of 0.9 m (3 ft) and 1.8 m (6 ft) would threaten 4.2 and 13.1 million people in the US, respectively. In

11191: 5864: 3602: 3100:

is likely to retreat by 16 meters by 2050 relative to 2010. This could amount to 52 meters by 2100 under RCP8.5 Other vulnerable coastlines include the

16618: 14174: 4124: 13886: 11710: 10451:

Radić, Valentina; Hock, Regine (9 January 2011). "Regionally differentiated contribution of mountain glaciers and ice caps to future sea-level rise".

4666:

Moore, John C.; Grinsted, Aslak; Zwinger, Thomas; Jevrejeva, Svetlana (10 June 2013). "Semiempirical and process-based global sea level projections".

3768: 955:

After 500 years, sea level rise from thermal expansion alone may have reached only half of its eventual level - likely within ranges of 0.5–2 m (

16486: 15616: 11140: 11100: 5761: 3993: 3481:

Adaptation to sea level rise is costly for small island nations as a large portion of their population lives in areas that are at risk. Nations like

277:

rise may be higher or lower than the global average. Changing ice masses also affect the distribution of sea water around the globe through gravity.

13862: 13493: 13421: 11439: 11367: 18771: 7966: 7194: 6825:

Merrifield, Mark A.; Thompson, Philip R.; Lander, Mark (July 2012). "Multidecadal sea level anomalies and trends in the western tropical Pacific".

2969:

8.5 scenario than in the low-emission RCP2.6 scenario. Sea level rise of 0.2-0.3 meters is likely by 2050. In these conditions what is currently a

2702:

that destroys housing, infrastructure and natural ecosystems. A number of communities in Coastal Ghana are already experiencing the changing tides.

2060:

by 78.48 centimetres (30.90 in). This caused groundwater depletion equivalent to a global sea level rise of 6.24 millimetres (0.246 in).

4852: 4497:"Exploring high-end scenarios for local sea level rise to develop flood protection strategies for a low-lying delta—the Netherlands as an example" 1132:

can also measure absolute sea level changes. To get precise measurements for sea level, researchers studying the ice and oceans factor in ongoing

16423: 15606: 14665: 13148:

Tierolf, Lars; Haer, Toon Haer; Wouter Botzen, W. J.; de Bruijn, Jens A.; Ton, Marijn J.; Reimann, Lena; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H. (13 March 2023).

10800: 8904: 7885: 4495:

Katsman, Caroline A.; Sterl, A.; Beersma, J. J.; van den Brink, H. W.; Church, J. A.; Hazeleger, W.; Kopp, R. E.; Kroon, D.; Kwadijk, J. (2011).

4022: 2416:. These will be submerged if the rate is too rapid for them to migrate upward. This would result in the loss of an ecosystem. Both mangroves and 13361: 2930:

so much (up to 28 cm (11 in) per year between 1982 and 2010 in some areas) that in 2019, the government had committed to relocate the

1558:) indicated annual mass loss of only about 12 Gt from 2012 to 2016. This was due to greater ice gain in East Antarctica than estimated earlier. 812:

Projections for subsequent years are more difficult. In 2019, when 22 experts on ice sheets were asked to estimate 2200 and 2300 SLR under the 5

18669: 14253: 10166:

Robinson, Alexander; Calov, Reinhard; Ganopolski, Andrey (11 March 2012). "Multistability and critical thresholds of the Greenland ice sheet".

8046: 3247:

This trucks in mined sand in addition to other adaptation measures such as zoning, restrictions on state funding, and building code standards.

2568:

can slow and stabilize the rate of sea level rise after 2050. This would greatly reduce its costs and damages, but cannot stop it outright. So

14215: 12692: 10624:

Wada, Yoshihide; Reager, John T.; Chao, Benjamin F.; Wang, Jida; Lo, Min-Hui; Song, Chunqiao; Li, Yuwen; Gardner, Alex S. (15 November 2016).

7164: 17588: 16132: 12175: 11593:

Crosby, Sarah C.; Sax, Dov F.; Palmer, Megan E.; Booth, Harriet S.; Deegan, Linda A.; Bertness, Mark D.; Leslie, Heather M. (November 2016).

12146: 11050: 10673:

Seo, Ki-Weon; Ryu, Dongryeol; Eom, Jooyoung; Jeon, Taewhan; Kim, Jae-Seung; Youm, Kookhyoun; Chen, Jianli; Wilson, Clark R. (15 June 2023).

9499: 9438: 16365: 7909: 6225: 1708: 1435:

can even increase ice build-up. However, this effect is not enough to fully offset ice losses, and sea level rise continues to accelerate.

1432: 14091: 13077: 7418:

Rignot, Eric; Mouginot, Jérémie; Scheuchl, Bernd; van den Broeke, Michiel; van Wessem, Melchior J.; Morlighem, Mathieu (22 January 2019).

3933: 1837: in) to sea levels under the low-emission scenario, and 13 cm (5 in) under the high-emission scenario. The first scenario, 299:

Several approaches are used for sea level rise (SLR) projections. One is process-based modeling, where ice melting is computed through an

17722: 16249: 13296: 13026: 10889: 9265: 8395:

Chen, J. L.; Wilson, C. R.; Blankenship, D.; Tapley, B. D. (2009). "Accelerated Antarctic ice loss from satellite gravity measurements".

7108: 5887: 3425: 2472: 13206: 10109:"A multimillion-year-old record of Greenland vegetation and glacial history preserved in sediment beneath 1.4 km of ice at Camp Century" 7488:"Mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet 1992–2016: reconciling results from GRACE gravimetry with ICESat, ERS1/2 and Envisat altimetry" 7134: 17825: 16508: 16466: 1910:

sources. Glaciers contributed around 40% to sea level rise during the 20th century, with estimates for the 21st century of around 30%.

14058: 12298: 11907:

Tessler, Z. D.; Vörösmarty, C. J.; Grossberg, M.; Gladkova, I.; Aizenman, H.; Syvitski, J. P. M.; Foufoula-Georgiou, E. (2015-08-07).

10047:

Irvalı, Nil; Galaasen, Eirik V.; Ninnemann, Ulysses S.; Rosenthal, Yair; Born, Andreas; Kleiven, Helga (Kikki) F. (18 December 2019).

8124: 4939: 3725: 2220:

will be especially vulnerable later in the century under warming of 3 °C (5.4 °F). This is close to the current trajectory.

1658:(WAIS) is substantially more vulnerable. Temperatures on West Antarctica have increased significantly, unlike East Antarctica and the 17387: 16503: 16088: 14588: 13442:

Sweet & Park (2015). "Increased nuisance flooding along the coasts of the United States due to sea level rise: Past and future".

4822: 4634: 343: 11520:

Krauss, Ken W.; McKee, Karen L.; Lovelock, Catherine E.; Cahoon, Donald R.; Saintilan, Neil; Reef, Ruth; Chen, Luzhen (April 2014).

6531: 3904: 2782: 1997: 18828: 18766: 16718: 16439: 16157: 15934: 14009: 12547:

Garner, Andra J.; Sosa, Sarah E.; Tan, Fangyi; Tan, Christabel Wan Jie; Garner, Gregory G.; Horton, Benjamin P. (23 January 2023).

9781: 8950: 8498: 5642: 2790:

Asia has the largest population at risk from sea level due to its dense coastal populations. As of 2022, some 63 million people in

1952:

as 50 years after the tipping point is crossed, although 200 years is the most likely value, and the maximum is around 1000 years.

254:

Between 1901 and 2018, the global mean sea level rose by about 20 cm (7.9 in). More precise data gathered from satellite

245: 10858: 9031: 9001: 4334: 3932:; Gregory, J.; Gulev, S.; Hanawa, K.; Le Quéré, C.; Levitus, S.; Nojiri, Y.; Shum, C. K.; Talley, L. D.; Unnikrishnan, A. (2007). 3123:

In France, it was estimated that 8,000-10,000 people would be forced to migrate away from the coasts by 2080. The Italian city of

393:

For the 2021 IPCC report, three steps were taken to present a wider picture than the previous report (top left): state-of-the-art

17501: 17074: 16863: 16031: 15522: 12782: 10561: 10370: 7816: 7719: 7625: 5968: 3466: 2572:

to sea level rise is inevitable. The simplest approach is to stop development in vulnerable areas and ultimately move people and

2002: 1773:

the preindustrial level. This would be 2 °C (3.6 °F) below the temperature of 2020. Other researchers suggested that a

1561:

In the future, it is known that West Antarctica at least will continue to lose mass, and the likely future losses of sea ice and

8158: 7693: 6129: 16723: 16686: 16540: 16525: 16444: 16093: 16037: 15889: 14937: 14705: 12714: 8777: 6203: 4999: 3566: 2517: 14275: 11549: 7659: 6909: 6745: 3302:

caused an additional US$ 8 billion in damage, impacted 36,000 more houses and 71,000 more people. In the future, the northern

1431:

each other, sea level remains the same. Because of this precipitation began as water vapor evaporated from the ocean surface,

17907: 17382: 16520: 14546: 13788: 12085: 11999: 11881: 6197: 5122: 4706:

Mengel, Matthias; Levermann, Anders; Frieler, Katja; Robinson, Alexander; Marzeion, Ben; Winkelmann, Ricarda (8 March 2016).

4472: 3945: 3898: 3398: 2255:

Potential disruption of sea trade and migrations could impact people living further inland. United Nations Secretary-General

1803:

sources (excluding thermal expansion). This observed rate of ice sheet melting is at the higher end of predictions from past

8080:

Greene, Chad A.; Young, Duncan A.; Gwyther, David E.; Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K.; Blankenship, Donald D. (6 September 2018).

7215: 3135:, inhabited by over 350,000 people, is at low elevation and has been vulnerable to flooding since preindustrial times. Many 17845: 17404: 16360: 16355: 15169: 11674:

Weston, Nathaniel B. (16 July 2013). "Declining Sediments and Rising Seas: an Unfortunate Convergence for Tidal Wetlands".

5708:

Gilford, Daniel M.; Ashe, Erica L.; DeConto, Robert M.; Kopp, Robert E.; Pollard, David; Rovere, Alessio (5 October 2020).

3471: 3260: 2966: 2919: 2655: 1624: 984: 357: 14032:"Honey, I Sunk the Maldives: Environmental changes could wipe out some of the world's most well-known travel destinations" 14031: 13917:"Long-Term Changes in the Land–Ocean Ecological Environment in Small Island Countries in the South Pacific: A Fiji Vision" 13150:"A coupled agent-based model for France for simulating adaptation and migration decisions under future coastal flood risk" 12349: 9578: 6719: 4294:

Mycoo, M., M. Wairiu, D. Campbell, V. Duvat, Y. Golbuu, S. Maharaj, J. Nalau, P. Nunn, J. Pinnegar, and O. Warrick, 2022:

1570:

wide range of estimates is mainly due to the uncertainties regarding marine ice sheet and marine ice cliff instabilities.

781:–34 in). In the SSP1-2.6 pathway the range would be 46–99 cm (18–39 in), for SSP2-4.5 a 66–133 cm (26– 30:

This article is about the current and projected rise in the world's average sea level. For sea level rise in general, see

18400: 17840: 17739: 16885: 16663: 16481: 16413: 16403: 16386: 16293: 16100: 14658: 14628: 13818: 13391: 11212: 6641: 3561: 2467:. On the other hand, the Atlantic is warming at a faster pace than the Pacific. This has consequences for Europe and the 2304: 1427:

falls as snow, accumulates and over time forms glacial ice. If precipitation, surface processes and ice loss at the edge

336: 203: 183: 16418: 15059: 12270: 10201:

Bochow, Nils; Poltronieri, Anna; Robinson, Alexander; Montoya, Marisa; Rypdal, Martin; Boers, Niklas (18 October 2023).

1233: 18997: 18987: 18800: 17494: 17314: 17175: 17132: 16628: 15764: 15191: 15079: 9716: 8878: 8024: 14128:(1 May 2016). "Interactions between sea-level rise and wave exposure on reef island dynamics in the Solomon Islands". 10675:"Drift of Earth's Pole Confirms Groundwater Depletion as a Significant Contributor to Global Sea Level Rise 1993–2010" 17820: 17241: 17117: 16934: 16137: 15611: 14882: 14603: 8227: 6978: 1888: 1547: 1308: 368:, or SSPs. A large difference between the two was the addition of SSP1-1.9 to AR6, which represents meeting the best 8519:

Greene, Chad A.; Blankenship, Donald D.; Gwyther, David E.; Silvano, Alessandro; van Wijk, Esmee (1 November 2017).

4770:

DeConto, Robert M.; Pollard, David (30 March 2016). "Contribution of Antarctica to past and future sea-level rise".

614: ft) or more of sea level rise by 2100 from Antarctica alone, was considered even more important than the 2014 18385: 18081: 17474: 17112: 17092: 17039: 16991: 16053: 15069: 15029: 12991:"A New Coastal Erosion Risk Assessment Indicator: Application to the Calabria Tyrrhenian Littoral (Southern Italy)" 6466: 5992:"Marine ice-cliff instability modeling shows mixed-mode ice-cliff failure and yields calving rate parameterization" 4151: 3987: 1761:

in West Antarctica would increase the total sea level rise to 4.3 m (14 ft 1 in). However, mountain

1281:, an amateur meteorologist, beginning in 1837. Lempriere established a sea-level benchmark on a small cliff on the 1164: 13665: 12910: 12879: 11308: 7310: 5990:

Crawford, Anna J.; Benn, Douglas I.; Todd, Joe; Åström, Jan A.; Bassis, Jeremy N.; Zwinger, Thomas (11 May 2021).

4295: 4191: 712:

Even if the temperature stabilizes, significant sea-level rise (SLR) will continue for centuries, consistent with

18432: 17929: 17902: 17533: 17231: 17182: 16608: 16570: 16515: 15985: 15799: 14785: 14333: 13679: 12924: 12893: 12649:"Modeling Human Migration Under Environmental Change: A Case Study of the Effect of Sea Level Rise in Bangladesh" 11908: 11635: 10723: 8440:"Grounding line retreat of Denman Glacier, East Antarctica, measured with COSMO-SkyMed radar interferometry data" 7324: 6766:

Nerem, R. S.; Beckley, B. D.; Fasullo, J. T.; Hamlington, B. D.; Masters, D.; Mitchum, G. T. (27 February 2018).

6154: 4566: 4309: 4205: 3685: 3433: 2647: 2451: 1781: 372:

goal of 1.5 °C (2.7 °F). In that case, the likely range of sea level rise by 2100 is 28–55 cm (11–

14354: 11169: 6894: 6869: 3936:. In Solomon, S.; Qin, D.; Manning, M.; Chen, Z.; Marquis, M.; Averyt, K. B.; Tignor, M.; Miller, H. L. (eds.). 3446:. Atolls on average reach 0.9–1.8 m (3–6 ft) above sea level. These are the most vulnerable places to 2989:-owned holdings and cultural heritage objects. Australian assets worth AUS$ 164–226 billion including many 1849:

can affect both pathways. In the best-case scenario, ice sheet under SSP1-2.6 gains enough mass by 2100 through

1715:

accumulation over the EAIS at about the same rate as it would increase ice loss from WAIS. However, most of the

17790: 17299: 16583: 16340: 15879: 15472: 14651: 14130: 5662:"Stabilizing effect of mélange buttressing on the marine ice-cliff instability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet" 3429: 3352:

would occur once in 19–68 years by 2050 and 4–60 years by 2080. By 2050, 20 million people in the greater

2015: 1902: 17: 9908: 7531: 3459:

have already disappeared due to the effects of sea level rise and stronger trade winds pushing water into the

3333: 2761: 2087: 884: in) for the high-warming RCP8.5. The former scenario had the 5%–95% confidence range of 24–311 cm ( 18180: 18086: 17538: 17409: 16944: 16476: 14608: 13698:"Economic damages from Hurricane Sandy attributable to sea level rise caused by anthropogenic climate change" 13515: 7943: 5826: 5709: 4451: 3594: 3549: 1845:

goals, while the other, SSP5-8.5, has the emissions accelerate throughout the century. The uncertainty about

1838: 365: 14185: 11183: 6346:

Bamber, Jonathan L.; Oppenheimer, Michael; Kopp, Robert E.; Aspinall, Willy P.; Cooke, Roger M. (May 2019).

3621: 2224:-based research had established in 2021 that 267 million people worldwide lived on land less than 2 m ( 1731:

deepens inland and becomes more vulnerable to meltwater, in what is known as marine ice sheet instability.

987:

of Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets are likely to play a larger role over such timescales. Ice loss from

717: 202:

of ecosystems and countries also varies, which will result in more or less pronounced impacts. The greatest

18833: 18230: 18130: 17392: 17064: 16593: 16588: 16493: 16370: 15927: 14927: 14563: 12900:. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, US, pp. 1581–1688, |doi=10.1017/9781009325844.013 12209: 11721: 6950: 3765: 3455:

current rates, sea level rise would be high enough to make the Maldives uninhabitable by 2100. Five of the

3223: 2942: 2839: 2664: 1525:

The large volume of ice on the Antarctic continent stores around 60% of the world's fresh water. Excluding

1137: 760: 615: 557: 522: 518: 361: 311:

modelling). It was developed because process-based model projections in the past IPCC reports (such as the

265:

Sea level rise is not uniform around the globe. Some land masses are moving up or down as a consequence of

262:

data shows that this rate of sea level rise is the fastest it had been over at least the past 3,000 years.

11431: 11136: 10756:"Quantifying coastal flood vulnerability for climate adaptation policy using principal component analysis" 7486:

Zwally, H. Jay; Robbins, John W.; Luthcke, Scott B.; Loomis, Bryant D.; Rémy, Frédérique (29 March 2021).

6053:"Last interglacial global mean sea level from high-precision U-series ages of Bahamian fossil coral reefs" 5808: 3976: 3497:. In 2014, Kiribati purchased 20 square kilometers of land (about 2.5% of Kiribati's current area) on the 2997:

would also be at risk. This amounts to a 111% rise in Australia's inundation costs between 2020 and 2100.

2332:

areas become inundated with saltwater to the point no trees can survive the resulting habitats are called

1420: 18964: 18713: 17912: 17862: 16603: 16456: 14583: 13605:"Groundwater level observations in 250,000 coastal US wells reveal scope of potential seawater intrusion" 13485: 13413: 13101:"Accumulated effects of chronic, acute and man-induced erosion in Nørlev strand on the Danish west coast" 10724:"Patterns and Projections of High Tide Flooding Along the U.S. Coastline Using a Common Impact Threshold" 5710:"Could the Last Interglacial Constrain Projections of Future Antarctic Ice Mass Loss and Sea-Level Rise?" 3951: 3555: 3394: 3270:

there is already considering relocation due to widespread coastal erosion. In Mexico, damage from SLR to

2715:

sea level rise will be around 21 cm, with little difference from climate change scenarios. By 2100,

2073: 1477: 1282: 1229: 14987: 12109:

Dasgupta, Susmita; Wheeler, David; Bandyopadhyay, Sunando; Ghosh, Santadas; Roy, Utpal (February 2022).

7186: 4415:

Slater, Thomas; Lawrence, Isobel R.; Otosaka, Inès N.; Shepherd, Andrew; et al. (25 January 2021).

3143:, sea level at the end of the century would increase by 53 to 115 centimeters at the mouth of the River 1464:

There has been an increase in ocean heat content during recent decades as the oceans absorb most of the

18992: 18373: 18225: 18200: 17610: 17462: 17226: 17029: 16986: 16759: 16681: 16535: 15124: 14613: 14598: 14593: 14383:

Thomas, Adelle; Baptiste, April; Martyr-Koller, Rosanne; Pringle, Patrick; Rhiney, Kevon (2020-10-17).

10486:

Dyurgerov, Mark (2002). Glacier Mass Balance and Regime Measurements and Analysis, 1945-2003 (Report).

8674:"Rapid postglacial rebound amplifies global sea level rise following West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse" 3523:

to protect against flooding and erosion. It sees this as a more cost-efficient alternative to building

3267: 3021:. Many people live in low-lying areas exposed to sea level rise. This includes 6% of the population of 2962: 2651: 856:.) In 2020, 106 experts who contributed to 6 or more papers on sea level estimated median 118 cm ( 595: ft) in basal (underground) height are likely to rapidly collapse under their own weight once the 46: 13351: 10796: 8732:

Garbe, Julius; Albrecht, Torsten; Levermann, Anders; Donges, Jonathan F.; Winkelmann, Ricarda (2020).

7846: 5368:"Marine ice sheet instability amplifies and skews uncertainty in projections of future sea-level rise" 5334:. The International Conference on Materials Chemistry and Environmental Engineering (CONF-MCEE 2021). 2091:

High tide flooding, also called tidal flooding, has become much more common in the past seven decades.

2005:

observations in gigatons per year, April 2002 to November 2014 (glaciers and ice sheets are excluded).

138:

Rising seas affect every coastal and island population on Earth. This can be through flooding, higher

18843: 18776: 18619: 18351: 18346: 18220: 18050: 17892: 17679: 17331: 17006: 16981: 16954: 16916: 16833: 16651: 16498: 16461: 16211: 15980: 15975: 15970: 15659: 15064: 15024: 14633: 14539: 13603:

Jasechko, Scott J.; Perrone, Debra; Seybold, Hansjörg; Fan, Ying; Kirchner, James W. (26 June 2020).

12202:"Costs and coasts: an empirical assessment of physical and institutional climate adaptation pathways" 11570:

Soares, M.L.G. (2009). "A Conceptual Model for the Responses of Mangrove Forests to Sea Level Rise".

4853:"January 2017 analysis from NOAA: Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States" 3158:

is a country that sits partially below sea level and is subsiding. It has responded by extending its

3057:

76 times in one 6-year period in the 2010s. There was a US$ 25,000-50,000 loss for each idle day. In

2749: 2569: 2565: 2541: 2505: 1947: in) by 2100. Mountain glaciers are even more vulnerable over the longer term. In 2022, another 1414: 995:

Year 2021 IPCC estimates for the amount of sea level rise over the next 2,000 years project that:

304: 199: 16846: 14245: 13546:"Public priorities on locally-driven sea level rise planning on the East Coast of the United States" 7069: 6289:

Mengel, Matthias; Nauels, Alexander; Rogelj, Joeri; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich (20 February 2018).

4060:"New elevation data triple estimates of global vulnerability to sea-level rise and coastal flooding" 2843:

extensive rice production on the coast are already seeing adverse impacts from saltwater intrusion.

1599:

In spite of the net mass gain, some East Antarctica glaciers have lost ice in recent decades due to

767:°C under the SSP1-1.9 scenario would result in sea level rise in the 17–83% range of 37–86 cm ( 703: 18949: 18838: 18733: 18659: 18486: 18115: 17815: 17517: 17341: 17336: 17326: 17267: 17107: 16613: 16578: 16471: 16398: 16239: 16068: 16004: 15965: 15789: 15164: 15154: 15094: 14730: 14700: 14623: 14618: 14568: 12648: 12480:"Global survey shows planners use widely varying sea-level rise projections for coastal adaptation" 11745:

Ohenhen, Leonard O.; Shirzaei, Manoochehr; Ojha, Chandrakanta; Kirwan, Matthew L. (11 April 2023).

9523:"Return to rapid ice loss in Greenland and record loss in 2019 detected by the GRACE-FO satellites" 7240:

Lambeck, Kurt; Rouby, Hélène; Purcell, Anthony; Sun, Yiying; Sambridge, Malcolm (28 October 2014).

7156: 6868:

Mantua, Nathan J.; Hare, Steven R.; Zhang, Yuan; Wallace, John M.; Francis, Robert C. (June 1997).

1961: 1823:

estimated that by 2100, the melting of Greenland ice sheet would most likely add around 6 cm (

1655: 1641: 1585: 1579: 1465: 1266: 312: 104: 12167: 10315:

Rounce, David R.; Hock, Regine; Maussion, Fabien; Hugonnet, Romain; et al. (5 January 2023).

1595:

Aerial view of ice flows at Denman Glacier, one of the less stable glaciers in the East Antarctica

870: in) SLR in the year 2300 for the low-warming RCP2.6 scenario and the median of 329 cm ( 18944: 18513: 18368: 17664: 17450: 17372: 17282: 17024: 16996: 16676: 16335: 16313: 15920: 15826: 15809: 15646: 15139: 15004: 14942: 14932: 14825: 14573: 14476: 13887:"Many Low-Lying Atoll Islands Will Be Uninhabitable by Mid-21st Century | U.S. Geological Survey" 12110: 11014: 9663:; Whitehouse, Pippa; Briggs, Kate; Joughin, Ian; Krinner, Gerhard; Nowicki, Sophie (2020-03-12). 9461: 9400: 6177: 5637:

There is no doubt that the sea level rise, within the IPCC, is a very conservative number," says

3311: 3054: 2509: 2144: 1616: 1248:

Between 1993 and 2018, the mean sea level has risen across most of the world ocean (blue colors).

369: 353: 230: 163: 7660:"Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points – paper explainer" 6567: 6530:

Clark, Peter U.; Shakun, Jeremy D.; Marcott, Shaun A.; Mix, Alan C.; Eby, Michael (April 2016).

6405:

Solomon, Susan; Plattner, Gian-Kasper; Knutti, Reto; Friedlingstein, Pierre (10 February 2009).

6291:"Committed sea-level rise under the Paris Agreement and the legacy of delayed mitigation action" 6272: 2252: ft) sea level rise and zero population growth, that could increase to 410 million people. 18959: 18793: 18740: 18634: 18457: 18302: 17660: 17049: 16869: 16811: 16728: 16713: 16598: 16244: 16190: 16185: 16180: 16175: 16170: 16165: 15821: 15759: 15186: 14872: 14578: 13049: 12948:

Ballesteros, Caridad; Jiménez, José A.; Valdemoro, Herminia I.; Bosom, Eva (7 September 2017).

12373:"The macroeconomic effects of adapting to high-end sea-level rise via protection and migration" 11646: 11642: 9176:"Unavoidable future increase in West Antarctic ice-shelf melting over the twenty-first century" 7847:"Ocean heat uptake and its consequences for the magnitude of sea level rise and climate change" 7064: 6586:"Combustion of available fossil fuel resources sufficient to eliminate the Antarctic Ice Sheet" 6532:"Consequences of twenty-first-century policy for multi-millennial climate and sea-level change" 5915:"Transition to marine ice cliff instability controlled by ice thickness gradients and velocity" 3879:

Climate Stabilization Targets: Emissions, Concentrations, and Impacts over Decades to Millennia

3319: 2614: 2508:(Netherlands) are 3–4 m (10–13 ft), over 3 m (10 ft) in urban areas of the 1877: 1683: 1184: 13260: 12990: 12320:

Hallegatte, Stephane; Green, Colin; Nicholls, Robert J.; Corfee-Morlot, Jan (18 August 2013).

10920:"Global LiDAR land elevation data reveal greatest sea-level rise vulnerability in the tropics" 7100: 7001: 5760:

Wise, Matthew G.; Dowdeswell, Julian A.; Jakobsson, Martin; Larter, Robert D. (October 2017).

2658:, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, and sometimes include extreme scenarios. But 88% of projections from the 19002: 18363: 18175: 17637: 17598: 17438: 17084: 16961: 16769: 16229: 16152: 15654: 15636: 15144: 15039: 14674: 14448: 9224: 7130: 3460: 3131:

and has already spent $ 6 billion on a barrier system. A quarter of the German state of

1286: 639: 13050:"Coastal erosion risk assessment to discuss mitigation strategies: Barra-Vagueira, Portugal" 8157:

Edwards, Tamsin L.; Nowicki, Sophie; Marzeion, Ben; Hock, Regine; et al. (5 May 2021).

5762:"Evidence of marine ice-cliff instability in Pine Island Bay from iceberg-keel plough marks" 5645:, who has also reviewed the Hansen study. "So the truth lies somewhere between IPCC and Jim. 5231: 2178: 1810: 18728: 18525: 18427: 18292: 18254: 18004: 17808: 17702: 17277: 17155: 16816: 16391: 16318: 15841: 15674: 15377: 15234: 15099: 14810: 14532: 14063: 13928: 13709: 13616: 13451: 13272: 13161: 13112: 13002: 12950:"Erosion consequences on beach functions along the Maresme coast (NW Mediterranean, Spain)" 12812: 12756: 12660: 12605: 12560: 12491: 12443: 12384: 12333: 12294: 12246: 12035: 11923: 11815: 11758: 11606: 11470: 11405: 11255: 11026: 10931: 10767: 10686: 10596: 10519: 10460: 10405: 10328: 10271: 10214: 10175: 10120: 10011: 9951: 9864: 9823: 9753: 9609: 9598:"Spatial and temporal distribution of mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet since AD 1900" 9534: 9357: 9304: 9239: 9187: 9132: 9073: 8854: 8807: 8745: 8685: 8646: 8590: 8532: 8451: 8404: 8353: 8308: 8257: 8170: 8093: 7984: 7861: 7787: 7746: 7733:

Cheng, Lijing; Foster, Grant; Hausfather, Zeke; Trenberth, Kevin E.; Abraham, John (2022).

7499: 7431: 7363: 7253: 7056: 7013: 6881: 6834: 6779: 6683: 6597: 6543: 6481: 6418: 6359: 6302: 6240: 6105: 6064: 6003: 5926: 5838: 5776: 5721: 5673: 5573: 5506: 5441: 5379: 5285: 5227: 5163: 5078: 5011: 4935: 4904: 4779: 4719: 4675: 4618: 4428: 4243: 4071: 3882: 3829: 3256: 2931: 2775: 1850: 1428: 1383: 1343: 1323: 1189: 853: 270: 14401: 14384: 12534: 10049:"A low climate threshold for south Greenland Ice Sheet demise during the Late Pleistocene" 9984: 9853:"A tipping point in refreezing accelerates mass loss of Greenland's glaciers and ice caps" 9812:"Effects of extreme melt events on ice flow and sea level rise of the Greenland Ice Sheet" 5660:

Schlemm, Tanja; Feldmann, Johannes; Winkelmann, Ricarda; Levermann, Anders (24 May 2022).

5344: 4603: 2450:

Sea level rise in many locations across the world is worsened due to land subsidence. The

2412:. They are particularly vulnerable due to mangrove plants' reliance on breathing roots or 556:

The greatest uncertainty with sea level rise projections is associated with the so-called

8: 18869: 18649: 18520: 18442: 18040: 17986: 17934: 17897: 17887: 17593: 17294: 17069: 16303: 16298: 15836: 15721: 15716: 15442: 15114: 15074: 14790: 13966:"Climate impacts on air quality and child health and wellbeing: Implications for Oceania" 13915:

Zhu, Bozhong; Bai, Yan; He, Xianqiang; Chen, Xiaoyan; Li, Teng; Gong, Fang (2021-09-18).

12852: 11992:

Comparative assessment of the vulnerability and resilience of 10 deltas: synthesis report

11747:"Hidden vulnerability of US Atlantic coast to sea-level rise due to vertical land motion" 9293:"Evidence for the stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet divide for 1.4 million years" 9036: 8843:"Recent Antarctic ice mass loss from radar interferometry and regional climate modelling" 6094:"Constraining the contribution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to Last Interglacial sea level" 3874: 3872: 3323: 3176: 3050: 2927: 2554: 2381: 2369: 2313: 1795: 1774: 1724: 1659: 1509: 1443: 1439: 1365: 1353: 1262: 1258: 1163:

continued the sea surface measurements started by TOPEX/Poseidon. It was followed by the

1145: 1070:

At a warming peak of 1.5 °C (2.7 °F), global sea levels would rise 6–7 m (

999:

At a warming peak of 1.5 °C (2.7 °F), global sea levels would rise 2–3 m (

992:

the entire Antarctic ice sheet, causing about 58 m (190 ft) of sea level rise.

817: 14143: 14119: 13965: 13932: 13713: 13620: 13455: 13276: 13182: 13165: 13149: 13116: 13006: 12816: 12760: 12664: 12609: 12564: 12514: 12495: 12479: 12447: 12388: 12337: 12250: 12039: 11927: 11819: 11779: 11762: 11746: 11610: 11474: 11409: 11284: 11259: 11243: 11030: 10935: 10771: 10690: 10600: 10523: 10464: 10409: 10332: 10275: 10235: 10218: 10202: 10179: 10124: 10015: 9955: 9868: 9827: 9757: 9613: 9538: 9486: 9425: 9361: 9308: 9243: 9191: 9136: 9077: 8940: 8858: 8811: 8749: 8689: 8650: 8594: 8536: 8488: 8455: 8408: 8357: 8312: 8261: 8174: 8097: 7988: 7865: 7791: 7750: 7503: 7435: 7367: 7354:

IMBIE team (13 June 2018). "Mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2017".

7257: 7060: 7047:

Church, J.A.; White, N.J. (2006). "20th century acceleration in global sea-level rise".

7017: 6885: 6838: 6783: 6687: 6601: 6547: 6485: 6422: 6363: 6306: 6244: 6109: 6068: 6007: 5930: 5842: 5780: 5725: 5677: 5577: 5510: 5445: 5383: 5289: 5167: 5082: 5015: 4908: 4783: 4723: 4679: 4622: 4432: 4247: 4075: 3833: 2256: 1368:(changes in the amount of sunlight due to slow changes in the Earth's orbit) caused the 335:

Historical sea level reconstruction and projections up to 2100 published in 2017 by the

19007: 18572: 18567: 18545: 18530: 18422: 18210: 18190: 18140: 18103: 18093: 17944: 17781: 17122: 17054: 16971: 16821: 16786: 16743: 16738: 16733: 16308: 15779: 15492: 15482: 15447: 15347: 15332: 15229: 14490: 14325: 14001: 13743: 13730: 13697: 13637: 13604: 13580: 13545: 13467: 13356: 13288: 13130: 13069: 13018: 12971: 12828: 12684: 12629: 12596:

McLeman, Robert (2018). "Migration and displacement risks due to mean sea-level rise".

12578: 12459: 12405: 12372: 12262: 12138: 12067: 11955: 11833: 11691: 11575: 11502: 11486: 11042: 10960: 10919: 10839: 10704: 10650: 10625: 10553: 10433: 10362: 10292: 10259: 10143: 10108: 10083: 10048: 10029: 9885: 9852: 9708: 9660: 9641: 9560: 9381: 9325: 9292: 9257: 9205: 9156: 9105: 8870: 8823: 8769: 8706: 8673: 8618: 8553: 8520: 8420: 8377: 8326: 8210: 8016: 7877: 7617: 7454: 7419: 7397: 7276: 7241: 7082: 7029: 6850: 6802: 6767: 6701: 6618: 6585: 6581: 6497: 6441: 6406: 6382: 6347: 6323: 6290: 6024: 5991: 5599: 5535: 5494: 5470: 5429: 5402: 5367: 5303: 5275: 5259: 5216:"Potential Antarctic Ice Sheet retreat driven by hydrofracturing and ice cliff failure" 5184: 5151: 5114: 5035: 4803: 4742: 4707: 4526: 4464: 4397: 4272: 4231: 4092: 4059: 3540:. A further 49–60% of coastal resorts would be at risk from resulting coastal erosion. 3132: 3128: 3034: 2737: 2545: 2487: 2437: 2377: 2353: 2104: 1915: 1846: 1736: 1551: 1455: 1387: 274: 222: 38: 13234:"Venice Flooding Reveals A Real Hoax About Climate Change - Framing It As "Either/Or"" 12744: 11368:"Sea level rise poses a major threat to coastal ecosystems and the biota they support" 10722:

Sweet, William V.; Dusek, Greg; Obeysekera, Jayantha; Marra, John J. (February 2018).

10507: 10316: 7712:"Ocean Warming / Latest Measurement: December 2022 / 345 (± 2) zettajoules since 1955" 7711: 7573: 5914: 3017:

By 2100, coastal flooding and erosion will affect at least 3-4 million people in

2766: 1591: 18805: 18706: 18501: 18309: 18274: 18235: 18185: 18076: 18060: 17803: 17766: 17744: 17729: 17712: 17630: 17356: 17019: 16764: 16530: 16323: 16286: 16073: 16027: 15861: 15851: 15794: 15774: 15457: 15422: 15357: 15337: 15327: 15209: 14897: 14755: 14406: 14329: 14147: 14005: 13993: 13985: 13946: 13747: 13735: 13642: 13585: 13567: 13327: 13292: 13261:"Contributions to 21st century projections of extreme sea-level change around the UK" 13187: 13134: 13073: 13022: 12975: 12832: 12774: 12688: 12633: 12621: 12582: 12519: 12463: 12410: 12266: 12142: 12130: 12071: 12059: 12051: 12005: 11995: 11947: 11939: 11837: 11784: 11695: 11541: 11494: 11289: 11271: 11046: 10965: 10947: 10843: 10708: 10655: 10609: 10584: 10557: 10545: 10366: 10354: 10297: 10240: 10148: 10088: 10070: 10033: 9969: 9890: 9740:

Bamber, Jonathan L; Westaway, Richard M; Marzeion, Ben; Wouters, Bert (1 June 2018).

9712: 9700: 9692: 9633: 9564: 9552: 9491: 9430: 9373: 9330: 9209: 9160: 9148: 9097: 9089: 8827: 8773: 8761: 8711: 8558: 8469: 8424: 8369: 8330: 8218: 8214: 8202: 8194: 8008: 7975: 7621: 7609: 7601: 7459: 7389: 7281: 7086: 6854: 6807: 6705: 6623: 6559: 6446: 6387: 6328: 6264: 6256: 6193: 6121: 6093: 6029: 5960: 5952: 5800: 5792: 5603: 5540: 5522: 5475: 5457: 5407: 5189: 5118: 5106: 5039: 5027: 4807: 4795: 4747: 4518: 4468: 4456: 4277: 4259: 4097: 3983: 3941: 3894: 3451: 3240: 3215: 3097: 3077: 2848: 2711: 2630:

then attempting to protect every coastline, in the case of very high sea level rise.

2357: 2201: 2136: 2095:

Sea-level rise has many impacts. They include higher and more frequent high-tide and

2057: 1654:

East Antarctica contains the largest potential source of sea level rise. However the

1538: 1485: 1376: 1104:

At a warming peak of 5 °C (9.0 °F), sea levels would rise 28–37 m (92–

656: 234: 89: 50:

The global average sea level has risen about 25 centimetres (9.8 in) since 1880.

13471: 12722: 11959: 11636:"Mangroves for coastal defence. Guidelines for coastal managers & policy makers" 11417: 9385: 9261: 9109: 8733: 8622: 8020: 7881: 7401: 7033: 6501: 6077: 6052: 5043: 1265:

remained scarce up to the 1970s. The longest running sea-level measurements, NAP or

1087:

At a warming peak of 2 °C (3.6 °F), sea levels would rise 8–13 m (26–

331: 18954: 18889: 18718: 18696: 18540: 18508: 18496: 18472: 18098: 18045: 18035: 17994: 17924: 17919: 17648: 17556: 17399: 16966: 16949: 16890: 16781: 16545: 16269: 16142: 16078: 15816: 15784: 15754: 15563: 15548: 15417: 15352: 15244: 15159: 15089: 15014: 14795: 14765: 14695: 14690: 14509: 14396: 14317: 14155: 14139: 13977: 13936: 13725: 13717: 13632: 13624: 13575: 13557: 13459: 13280: 13177: 13169: 13120: 13061: 13010: 12961: 12932: 12848:"As seas rise, Indonesia is moving its capital city. Other cities should take note" 12820: 12764: 12676: 12668: 12613: 12568: 12509: 12499: 12451: 12400: 12392: 12341: 12254: 12126: 12122: 12043: 11931: 11823: 11774: 11766: 11683: 11614: 11533: 11506: 11478: 11413: 11279: 11263: 11034: 10955: 10939: 10831: 10775: 10694: 10645: 10637: 10626:"Recent Changes in Land Water Storage and its Contribution to Sea Level Variations" 10604: 10535: 10527: 10487: 10468: 10437: 10423: 10413: 10344: 10336: 10287: 10279: 10230: 10222: 10183: 10138: 10128: 10078: 10060: 10019: 9959: 9940:"Dynamic ice loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet driven by sustained glacier retreat" 9880: 9872: 9831: 9761: 9684: 9676: 9645: 9625: 9617: 9542: 9481: 9473: 9420: 9412: 9365: 9320: 9312: 9247: 9195: 9140: 9081: 8909: 8862: 8815: 8753: 8701: 8693: 8654: 8608: 8598: 8548: 8540: 8459: 8412: 8381: 8361: 8316: 8275: 8265: 8186: 8178: 8101: 8000: 7992: 7869: 7795: 7754: 7593: 7585: 7507: 7449: 7439: 7379: 7371: 7332: 7271: 7261: 7074: 7021: 6889: 6842: 6797: 6787: 6737: 6691: 6613: 6605: 6551: 6489: 6436: 6426: 6377: 6367: 6318: 6310: 6248: 6185: 6113: 6072: 6019: 6011: 5942: 5934: 5854: 5846: 5784: 5737: 5729: 5681: 5589: 5581: 5530: 5514: 5465: 5449: 5397: 5387: 5339: 5307: 5293: 5235: 5179: 5171: 5096: 5086: 5019: 4912: 4787: 4737: 4727: 4683: 4626: 4530: 4508: 4446: 4436: 4387: 4377: 4317: 4267: 4251: 4213: 4087: 4079: 3982:(Report). International Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press. 2001. 3886: 3847: 3837: 3788: 3340:

predicts different levels of sea level rise through 2050 for several US coastlines.

3283: 3195: 2876: 2838:

alone account for 70% of people exposed to sea level rise during the 21st century.

2361: 1720: 1278: 1141: 14498: 12617: 11521: 10780: 10755: 10508:"Global glacier change in the 21st century: Every increase in temperature matters" 10317:"Global glacier change in the 21st century: Every increase in temperature matters" 9659:

Shepherd, Andrew; Ivins, Erik; Rignot, Eric; Smith, Ben; van den Broeke, Michiel;

8874: 6348:"Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment" 5066: 4416: 2119:. There can also be loss of tourism, recreation, and transport-related functions. 1719:

underlying the WAIS lies well below sea level, and it has to be buttressed by the

1460: 1047:

At a warming peak of 5 °C (9.0 °F), sea levels would rise 19–22 m (

18783: 18624: 18195: 18055: 17971: 17959: 17939: 17835: 17625: 17605: 17528: 17351: 17272: 17236: 17165: 17139: 17127: 17044: 16976: 16851: 16708: 16330: 16281: 16259: 15621: 15517: 15467: 15432: 15392: 15284: 15254: 15104: 15054: 14964: 14922: 14855: 14780: 14740: 14321: 14125: 13683: 13672: 13414:"Florida Coastal Flooding Maps: Residents Deny Predicted Risks to Their Property" 12928: 12917: 12897: 12886: 12258: 12092: 9582: 8231: 7328: 7317: 6916: 6252: 5618:"James Hansen's controversial sea level rise paper has now been published online" 5495:"Basal channels drive active surface hydrology and transverse ice shelf fracture" 4313: 4302: 4209: 4198: 3783: 3772: 3625: 3494: 3475: 3456: 3447: 3357: 3307: 3299: 3065:

were three times more frequent between 2000 and 2016 than between 1928 and 1999.

3053:

threaten its unique. Extreme wave or wind behavior disrupted the port complex of

2745: 2699: 2468: 2284: 2268: 2260: 2140: 2100: 2077: 1842: 1534: 1530: 713: 394: 300: 218: 211: 18925: 13763:"Climate change to blame for $ 8 billion of Hurricane Sandy losses, study finds" 13099:

Rivero, Ofelia Yocasta; Margheritini, Lucia; Frigaard, Peter (4 February 2021).

12549:"Evaluating Knowledge Gaps in Sea-Level Rise Assessments From the United States" 12111:"Coastal dilemma: Climate change, public assistance and population displacement" 12026:; Nicholls, Robert J. (2010). "Sea-Level Rise and Its Impact on Coastal Zones". 9477: 9416: 7242:"Sea level and global ice volumes from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene" 6768:"Climate-change–driven accelerated sea-level rise detected in the altimeter era" 6224:

Hansen, J.; Russell, G.; Lacis, A.; Fung, I.; Rind, D.; Stone, P. (1985-08-30).

3934:"Observations: Ocean Climate Change and Sea Level: §5.5.1: Introductory Remarks" 2986: 2731:

In the near term, some of the largest displacement is projected to occur in the

1476:

The oceans store more than 90% of the extra heat added to the climate system by

1244: 1016:

At a warming peak of 2 °C (3.6 °F), sea levels would rise 2–6 m (

763:

was able to provide estimates for sea level rise in 2150. Keeping warming to 1.5

225:, or protecting against sea level rise through hard-construction practices like 18761: 18701: 18686: 18639: 18535: 18481: 18341: 17999: 17976: 17867: 17857: 17759: 17754: 17620: 17571: 17304: 17160: 17102: 17097: 16939: 16828: 16560: 16555: 16550: 16408: 16083: 16063: 16022: 15943: 15731: 15726: 15626: 15462: 15402: 15397: 15129: 15019: 14840: 14775: 14750: 14121: 13721: 13628: 13284: 13173: 13125: 13100: 13065: 12769: 12504: 12396: 12321: 11770: 11619: 11594: 11267: 10943: 10428: 10260:"Contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet to sea level over the next millennium" 10226: 10024: 9999: 9766: 9741: 9575: 9200: 9175: 8842: 8321: 8297:"Low Antarctic continental climate sensitivity due to high ice sheet orography" 8296: 8182: 7970: 7246:

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

6772:

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

6723: 6314: 6015: 5453: 5240: 5215: 5175: 4083: 3852: 3390: 3349: 3303: 3287: 3235: 3191: 3140: 3101: 3058: 2970: 2856: 2799: 2659: 2638: 2627: 2573: 2441: 2413: 2349: 2209: 1612: 1608: 1514: 1469: 1360: 1335: 1180: 348: 77: 31: 14976: 13383: 13014: 12966: 12949: 12936: 12824: 12455: 11828: 11803: 11687: 11482: 11244:"Uncertain future for global sea turtle populations in face of sea level rise" 11038: 11015:"Port adaptation to climate change and capacity investments under uncertainty" 10641: 9964: 9939: 9680: 9547: 9522: 9085: 8819: 8757: 7574:"Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points" 7375: 7336: 6870:"A Pacific Interdecadal Climate Oscillation with Impacts on Salmon Production" 6696: 6671: 6493: 5585: 5023: 4513: 4496: 4321: 4217: 3842: 3817: 3792: 3005: 2633: 1529:

this is 90%. Antarctica is experiencing ice loss from coastal glaciers in the

648: 625: 18981: 18904: 18788: 18745: 18691: 18679: 18664: 18654: 18577: 18491: 18467: 18462: 18336: 18331: 18326: 18242: 17830: 17771: 17734: 17686: 17377: 17309: 17034: 16856: 16841: 16776: 16671: 15901: 15749: 15669: 15558: 15477: 15452: 15387: 15317: 15224: 15119: 14996: 14917: 14877: 14850: 14760: 14710: 14484: 14462: 14434: 14410: 14151: 13989: 13950: 13571: 13331: 12931:. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, US, pp. 1689–1816 12778: 12625: 12134: 12055: 12023: 12009: 11943: 11275: 10951: 10835: 10418: 10393: 10074: 9973: 9696: 9556: 9462:"The potential for stabilizing Amundsen Sea glaciers via underwater curtains" 9152: 9144: 9093: 8473: 8198: 7759: 7734: 7605: 6563: 6260: 5956: 5796: 5526: 5461: 5298: 5263: 5110: 5031: 4917: 4892: 4522: 4460: 4316:. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, US, pp. 2043–2121. 4263: 4212:. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, US, pp. 1457–1579. 3929: 3681: 3638: 3353: 3345: 3314:

would experience the greatest sea level rise. By 2030, flooding along the US

3231: 3202:(October 17, 2016). The risk of tidal flooding increases with sea level rise. 3018: 2990: 2600: 2550: 2446: 2372:

are expected to be flooded. The proportion will increase over time. In 2016,

2128: 2108: 2046: 2034: 1600: 1424: 1133: 849: 643: 339:. RCPs are different scenarios for future concentrations of greenhouse gases. 17486: 14524: 14276:"Besieged by the rising tides of climate change, Kiribati buys land in Fiji" 12047: 11935: 11633: 10531: 10340: 10133: 10065: 9836: 9811: 9664: 9369: 8106: 8081: 8004: 7996: 7589: 7444: 7331:. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, US, pp. 2043–2121 7266: 6792: 6431: 6372: 6226:"Climate Response Times: Dependence on Climate Sensitivity and Ocean Mixing" 5938: 5686: 5661: 5392: 4732: 4708:"Future sea level rise constrained by observations and long-term commitment" 4382: 4365: 4236:

Proceedings of the Japan Academy. Series B, Physical and Biological Sciences

3595:"Climate Change Indicators: Sea Level / Figure 1. Absolute Sea Level Change" 3206:

As of 2017, around 95 million Americans lived on the coast. The figures for

2690:

A man looking out over the beach from a building destroyed by high tides in

1399: 1339: 1307: in) per year. This was double the average 20th century rate. The 2023 1297:(CSIRO) had shown that the global mean sea level was rising by 3.2 mm ( 633:(viewed from the top) would do a lot to determine how quickly it may proceed 315:

from 2007) were found to underestimate the already observed sea level rise.

18930: 18864: 18596: 18582: 18437: 18247: 18215: 18205: 18108: 17954: 17852: 17798: 17707: 17566: 17262: 17059: 16703: 16693: 16350: 16234: 16147: 15856: 15804: 15744: 15695: 15573: 15568: 15543: 15527: 15502: 15219: 15109: 15049: 14835: 14745: 14720: 14216:"Many small island nations can adapt to climate change with global support" 13997: 13739: 13686:. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, US, pp. 1929–2042 13646: 13589: 13191: 12523: 12414: 12063: 11951: 11788: 11545: 11498: 11293: 11105: 10969: 10659: 10549: 10358: 10301: 10283: 10244: 10152: 10092: 9894: 9704: 9637: 9495: 9434: 9377: 9334: 9101: 8905:"Ice shelf holding back keystone Antarctic glacier within years of failure" 8765: 8715: 8697: 8562: 8544: 8373: 8206: 8051: 8012: 7613: 7463: 7393: 7285: 6935: 6811: 6627: 6609: 6450: 6391: 6332: 6268: 6125: 6117: 6033: 5964: 5804: 5638: 5544: 5518: 5479: 5425: 5411: 5193: 5147: 5091: 4995: 4799: 4751: 4441: 4281: 4101: 3571: 3279: 3073: 2994: 2982: 2409: 2365: 2333: 2288: 2124: 2069: 1632:

to reach at least 6 °C (11 °F) to melt two thirds of its volume.

1620: 1489: 1372: 724:

emissions increase before peaking. It shows a 5% likelihood of a 1 m (

688: 548: 308: 259: 214:. Sea level rise will make many of them uninhabitable later this century. 14159: 12647:

De Lellis, Pietro; Marín, Manuel Ruiz; Porfiri, Maurizio (29 March 2021).

9252: 9225:"Bedmap2: improved ice bed, surface and thickness datasets for Antarctica" 9032:"Crucial Antarctic ice shelf could fail within five years, scientists say" 8270: 8246:"Bedmap2: improved ice bed, surface and thickness datasets for Antarctica" 8245: 8224: 7571: 4366:"Adaptation or Manipulation? Unpacking Climate Change Response Strategies" 4232:"Sea-level rise caused by climate change and its implications for society" 3010: 2802:. This is largely due to inadequate coastal protection in many countries. 80:

due to human activities is the main cause. Between 1993 and 2018, melting

18909: 18452: 18447: 18284: 18269: 18145: 18120: 17749: 17669: 17576: 17561: 17289: 16806: 16798: 16058: 15846: 15578: 15507: 15372: 15312: 15279: 15269: 15264: 15149: 15084: 15044: 15034: 15009: 14892: 14865: 14845: 14805: 14770: 13463: 12672: 12573: 12548: 12345: 11634:

Spalding, M.; McIvor, A.; Tonneijck, F.H.; Tol, S.; van Eijk, P. (2014).

11396:

Pontee, Nigel (November 2013). "Defining coastal squeeze: A discussion".

10699: 10674: 10187: 10000:"Greenland ice sheet climate disequilibrium and committed sea-level rise" 8464: 8439: 8159:"Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise" 8082:"Seasonal dynamics of Totten Ice Shelf controlled by sea ice buttressing" 7873: 7800: 7775: 7078: 7025: 6974: 6846: 6555: 5850: 5742: 5733: 5101: 4630: 3361: 3327: 3295: 3251: 3159: 3155: 3062: 2974: 2864: 2827: 2732: 2558: 2513: 2494: 2483: 2417: 2401: 2373: 2272: 2116: 2112: 2096: 2042: 1526: 1501: 1348: 1225: 1193: 692: 175: 139: 18591: 14643: 11579: 11490: 10985:"Rising seas threaten 'mass exodus on a biblical scale', UN chief warns" 10540: 10349: 9876: 9621: 9316: 9174:

A. Naughten, Kaitlin; R. Holland, Paul; De Rydt, Jan (23 October 2023).

8365: 7597: 6584:; Levermann, Anders; Ridgwell, Andy; Caldeira, Ken (11 September 2015). 5788: 5594: 4791: 4604:"Rethinking Sea-Level Projections Using Families and Timing Differences" 4401: 4255: 2906:

By 2050, Guangzhou would see 0.2 meters of sea level rise and estimated

2682:

Climate change in the Middle East and North Africa § Sea level rise

1766:

Antarctica ice is 500 years, and the potential maximum is 13,000 years.

1419:

The three main reasons why global warming causes sea levels to rise are

1156: 18859: 18674: 18644: 18629: 18417: 18405: 18165: 18027: 17653: 17321: 16698: 15664: 15512: 15487: 15382: 15362: 15289: 15274: 15259: 15249: 15214: 15134: 14954: 14949: 14912: 14907: 14902: 14800: 14301: 13941: 13916: 13562: 13207:"Venice's historic flooding blamed on human failure and climate change" 12743:

Erkens, G.; Bucx, T.; Dam, R.; de Lange, G.; Lambert, J. (2015-11-12).

12680: 11339:"'Our little brown rat': first climate change-caused mammal extinction" 11101:"Houses claimed by the canal: life on Egypt's climate change frontline" 9688: 9629: 8613: 8190: 7512: 7487: 7384: 5947: 5827:"Marine Ice Cliff Instability Mitigated by Slow Removal of Ice Shelves" 5214:

Pollard, David; DeConto, Robert M.; Alley, Richard B. (February 2015).

4023:"The three-degree world: cities that will be drowned by global warming" 3516: 3505:

to relocate its population once their own islands are lost to the sea.

3502: 3443: 3368: 3315: 3264: 2978: 2958: 2860: 2803: 2795: 2720: 2686: 2529: 2521: 2464: 2292: 2276: 2053: 2038: 1898: 1728: 1319: 1253: 1197: 988: 619: 485: in) by 2100. The "moderate" SSP2-4.5 results in a 44–76 cm ( 266: 195: 179: 167: 159: 81: 15896: 14428: 14305: 13981: 13676: 13259:

Howard, Tom; Palmer, Matthew D; Bricheno, Lucy M (18 September 2019).

12921: 12890: 12371:

Bachner, Gabriel; Lincke, Daniel; Hinkel, Jochen (29 September 2022).

11537: 10257: 9401:"Feasibility of ice sheet conservation using seabed anchored curtains" 8280: 8047:"Latest estimate shows how much Antarctic ice has fallen into the sea" 7321: 5913:

Bassis, J. N.; Berg, B.; Crawford, A. J.; Benn, D. I. (18 June 2021).

5859: 5366:

Robel, Alexander A.; Seroussi, Hélène; Roe, Gerard H. (23 July 2019).

4687: 4392: 4306: 4202: 3776: 2309: 290: 18601: 18390: 18319: 18264: 18259: 18125: 17966: 17872: 17615: 16276: 15736: 15598: 15583: 15497: 15342: 15181: 15176: 14959: 14887: 14815: 14735: 14725: 14682: 14306:"Vanua in the Anthropocene: Relationality and Sea Level Rise in Fiji" 12989:

Ietto, Fabio; Cantasano, Nicola; Pellicone, Gaetano (11 April 2018).

12749:

Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences

11240: 10733:. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). p. 4. 10491: 10472: 8658: 3537: 3219: 3199: 3167: 3148: 3081: 3022: 2954: 2947: 2900: 2872: 2815: 2791: 2786:

2010 estimates of population exposure to sea level rise in Bangladesh

2460: 2325: 2316:, the first known mammal species to go extinct due to sea level rise. 2107:

processes, more extensive coastal inundation, and changes in surface

1973: 1615:. Totten Glacier is particularly important because it stabilizes the 1562: 1274: 1270: 1129: 630: 618:. Even more rapid sea level rise was proposed in a 2016 study led by 596: 207: 191: 155: 151: 143: 88:

accounted for 44% of sea level rise, with another 42% resulting from

72: 14470: 13352:"Dutch draw up drastic measures to defend coast against rising seas" 12715:"Potential Impacts of Sea-Level Rise on Populations and Agriculture" 12319: 11852:"Why the U.S. East Coast could be a major 'hotspot' for rising seas" 11709:

Wong, Poh Poh; Losado, I.J.; Gattuso, J.-P.; Hinkel, Jochen (2014).

11563: 11453: 10113:

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States

9782:"Greenland ice loss is at 'worse-case scenario' levels, study finds" 8866: 8603: 8416: 7417: 6467:"The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets under 1.5 °C global warming" 4823:"Climate Model Predicts West Antarctic Ice Sheet Could Melt Rapidly" 943: 389: 18894: 18879: 18410: 18395: 18297: 18135: 17583: 15831: 15553: 15412: 15304: 15294: 15239: 14715: 10797:"300 Million People Worldwide Could Suffer Yearly Flooding by 2050" 8945: 8125:"Antarctica ice melt has accelerated by 280% in the last 4 decades" 6949:. New York: Cambridge University Press. p. 285. Archived from 6580: 6404: 6189: 5280: 3890: 3726:"WMO annual report highlights continuous advance of climate change" 3679: 3524: 3520: 3512: 3486: 3482: 3417: 3250:

Along an estimated ~15% of the US coastline, the majority of local

3113: 3109: 3042: 3030: 2911: 2831: 2823: 2724: 2463:

affects regional sea level differently than the equivalent loss in

2405: 2217: 2120: 1977: 1972:, with a slightly greater volume per unit of mass. If all floating 1965: 1712: 1646: 795: in) range by 2100 and for SSP5-8.5 a rise of 98–188 cm ( 739: 567:

The latter posits that coastal ice cliffs which exceed ~90 m (

14382: 13390:. Toronto. Agence France-Presse. September 4, 2008. p. AL12. 12432: 11909:"Profiling risk and sustainability in coastal deltas of the world" 11906: 11595:"Salt marsh persistence is threatened by predicted sea-level rise" 8489:"Climate change: Earth's deepest ice canyon vulnerable to melting" 7939: 7002:"The Sea Level at Port Arthur, Tasmania, from 1841 to the Present" 5825:

Clerc, Fiona; Minchew, Brent M.; Behn, Mark D. (21 October 2019).

5659: 5065:

Grinsted, Aslak; Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg (2 February 2021).

4558: 3873:

National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (2011).

3815: 2910:

economic losses of US$ 254 million – the highest in the world. In

742:

and slowly falling temperatures could limit it to 70–120 cm (

18874: 18723: 18560: 18550: 18358: 18170: 17882: 17877: 16254: 15912: 15700: 15690: 14860: 14830: 14456: 13852:"Impact of Sea Level Rise in the New York City Metropolitan Area" 13147: 12108: 11802:

Rovere, Alessio; Stocchi, Paolo; Vacchi, Matteo (2 August 2016).

11213:"How Rising Seas Are Killing Southern U.S. Woodlands - Yale E360" 10203:"Overshooting the critical threshold for the Greenland ice sheet" 9742:"The land ice contribution to sea level during the satellite era" 8797: 7420:"Four decades of Antarctic Ice Sheet mass balance from 1979–2017" 6670:

Rovere, Alessio; Stocchi, Paolo; Vacchi, Matteo (2 August 2016).

4021:

Holder, Josh; Kommenda, Niko; Watts, Jonathan (3 November 2017).

3637:

This article incorporates text from this source, which is in the

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could cause economic losses of up to US$ 176 billion. Using

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extraction in the past) would compound sea level rise. These are

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Thwaites Glacier, with its vulnerable bedrock topography visible.

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temperatures was 120,000 years ago. This was when warming due to

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Grecequet, Martina; Noble, Ian; Hellmann, Jessica (2017-11-16).

13320:"The Dutch Have Solutions to Rising Seas. The World Is Watching" 12947: 12201: 10200: 10105: 10046: 8973:"After Decades of Losing Ice, Antarctica Is Now Hemorrhaging It" 8635: 8575: 4494: 3413: 2847:

from population displacement at those levels. China, India, the

1682: in) of Antarctica sea level rise. Outflow glaciers in the 150:. There are many knock-on effects. They lead to loss of coastal 18884: 18810: 17257: 15407: 14820: 10890:"Up to 410 million people at risk from sea level rises – study" 10859:"A Crisis Right Now: San Francisco and Manila Face Rising Seas" 9850: 9460:

Wolovick, Michael; Moore, John; Keefer, Bowie (27 March 2023).

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Wolovick, Michael; Moore, John; Keefer, Bowie (27 March 2023).

8840: 8518: 7773: 7216:"Present CO2 levels caused 20-metre-sea-level rise in the past" 3927: 3490: 3275: 3211: 3207: 3144: 3124: 3089: 3049:

production. A combination of sea level rise, ocean warming and

3046: 3038: 3026: 2918:, yet would increase to 0.8% by 2100 even under the "moderate" 2896: 2888: 2852: 2771: 2707: 2525: 2329: 1555: 1518: 1369: 1315: 499:–30 in) range by 2100 and SSP5-8.5 led to 65–101 cm ( 14519: 14514: 13819:"More Damaging Flooding, 2022 Sea Level Rise Technical Report" 13695: 8437: 8242: 8079: 7732: 6161:. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). 2021. 6049: 4705: 4565:. Cambridge, UK and New York, US: Cambridge University Press. 3695:. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, US. 2320:

Flooding and soil/water salinization threaten the habitats of

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The world's largest potential source of sea level rise is the

273:(land rising as melting ice reduces weight). Therefore, local 18555: 18314: 17171:

Cooperative Mechanisms under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement

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Fourth National Climate Assessment Sea Level Rise Key Message

14503: 12529: 12476: 12295:"Coastal cities face rising risk of flood losses, study says" 11459: 9979: 9739: 9570: 6765: 6407:"Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions" 6345: 6288: 6184:. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. p. 245. 5888:"Collapse may not always be inevitable for marine ice cliffs" 5759: 4665: 4602:

Slangen, A. B. A.; Haasnoot, M.; Winter, G. (30 March 2022).

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or improved natural defenses. Other options include updating

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on a "biblical scale". Sea level rise will inevitably affect

2221: 2213: 2205: 2161: ft) by 2100. This could be as much as over two metres ( 255: 100: 93: 12097:

Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability.

9173: 8731: 5000:"Ice-sheet losses track high-end sea-level rise projections" 4962:"Ice sheet melt on track with 'worst-case climate scenario'" 3409: 3298:

due to sea level rise is also a problem. Due to this effect

2387: 1964:, no rise would occur. However melted sea ice contains less 1295:

Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation

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are hard approaches. There are also soft approaches such as

18899: 15201: 14092:"Five Pacific islands vanish from sight as sea levels rise" 13824: 12086:

Ocean and Coastal Ecosystems and their Services (Chapter 3)

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Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability

10715: 9665:"Mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2018" 9347: 9062: 8394: 7187:"Scientists discover evidence for past high-level sea rise" 6895:

10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<1069:APICOW>2.0.CO;2

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as a whole, damage from sea level rise could reach 2–4% of

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ecosystems on the mudflats of tropical coasts nurture high

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were to melt sea level would only rise by about 4 cm (

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will greatly affect the severity of impacts. For instance,

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