559:, the characteristics of those who agree to be interviewed may be markedly different from those who decline. That is, the actual sample is a biased version of the universe the pollster wants to analyze. In these cases, bias introduces new errors, one way or the other, that are in addition to errors caused by sample size. Error due to bias does not become smaller with larger sample sizes, because taking a larger sample size simply repeats the same mistake on a larger scale. If the people who refuse to answer, or are never reached, have the same characteristics as the people who do answer, then the final results should be unbiased. If the people who do not answer have different opinions then there is bias in the results. In terms of election polls, studies suggest that bias effects are small, but each polling firm has its own techniques for adjusting weights to minimize selection bias.
524:
of the sample to the broader population from which it was selected. Other factors also come into play in making a survey scientific. One must select a sample of sufficient size. If the sampling error is too large or the level of confidence too low, it will be difficult to make reasonably precise statements about characteristics of the population of interest to the pollster. A scientific poll not only will have a sufficiently large sample, it will also be sensitive to response rates. Very low response rates will raise questions about how representative and accurate the results are. Are there systematic differences between those who participated in the survey and those who, for whatever reason, did not participate? Sampling methods, sample size, and response rates will all be discussed in this chapter" (Asher 2017).
571:, where the answers given by respondents do not reflect their true beliefs. This may be deliberately engineered by unscrupulous pollsters in order to generate a certain result or please their clients, but more often is a result of the detailed wording or ordering of questions (see below). Respondents may deliberately try to manipulate the outcome of a poll by e.g. advocating a more extreme position than they actually hold in order to boost their side of the argument or give rapid and ill-considered answers in order to hasten the end of their questioning. Respondents may also feel under social pressure not to give an unpopular answer. For example, respondents might be unwilling to admit to unpopular attitudes like
745:
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sovereignty by inventing scientific public opinion polls, and making it the centerpiece of their own market research, as well as the key to understanding politics. George Gallup, the vice president of Young and
Rubicam, and numerous other advertising experts, led the way. Moving into the 1940s, the industry played a leading role in the ideological mobilization of the American people in fighting the Nazis and the Japanese in World War II. As part of that effort, they redefined the "American Way of Life" in terms of a commitment to free enterprise. "Advertisers", Lears concludes, "played a crucial hegemonic role in creating the consumer culture that dominated post-World War II American society."
520:. This makes the assumption that the procedure is similar enough between many different polls and uses the sample size of each poll to create a polling average. Another source of error stems from faulty demographic models by pollsters who weigh their samples by particular variables such as party identification in an election. For example, if you assume that the breakdown of the US population by party identification has not changed since the previous presidential election, you may underestimate a victory or a defeat of a particular party candidate that saw a surge or decline in its party registration relative to the previous presidential election cycle.
509:â usually defined as the radius of a 95% confidence interval for a particular statistic. One example is the percent of people who prefer product A versus product B. When a single, global margin of error is reported for a survey, it refers to the maximum margin of error for all reported percentages using the full sample from the survey. If the statistic is a percentage, this maximum margin of error can be calculated as the radius of the confidence interval for a reported percentage of 50%. Others suggest that a poll with a random sample of 1,000 people has margin of sampling error of ±3% for the estimated percentage of the whole population.
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negative, on themselves and their opponent(s). This lets the campaign know what messages work best with certain demographics and what messages should be avoided. Campaigns often use these polls to test possible attack messages that their opponent may use and potential responses to those attacks. The campaign can then spend some time preparing an effective response to any likely attacks. Thirdly, this kind of poll can be used by candidates or political parties to convince primary challengers to drop out of a race and support a stronger candidate.
36:
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counterproductive, that not being sent between groups that assume ulterior motives from each other and not being allowed to express consistent critical thought anywhere may create psychological stress because humans are sapient, and that discussion spaces free from assumptions of ulterior motives behind specific opinions should be created. In this context, rejection of the assumption that opinion polls show actual links between opinions is considered important.
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create reasons for a party's loss or gain in the polls. This can reinforce or change their opinion of the candidate and thus affect voting behaviour. Third, the final possibility is a "behavioural response" which is similar to a cognitive response. The only salient difference is that a voter will go and seek new information to form their "mental list", thus becoming more informed of the election. This may then affect voting behaviour.
623:
Additionally, leading questions often contain, or lack, certain facts that can sway a respondent's answer. Argumentative
Questions can also impact the outcome of a survey. These types of questions, depending on their nature, either positive or negative, influence respondents' answers to reflect the tone of the question(s) and generate a certain response or reaction, rather than gauge sentiment in an unbiased manner.
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737:. Because pollsters cannot use automated dialing machines to call mobile phones in the United States (because the phone's owner may be charged for taking a call), these individuals are typically excluded from polling samples. There is concern that, if the subset of the population without cell phones differs markedly from the rest of the population, these differences can skew the results of the poll.
308:
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of publication of the survey results largely differed in different countries. Out of the 20 countries examined, 3 prohibit the publication during the entire period of campaigns, while others prohibit it for a shorter term such as the polling period or the final 48 hours before a poll closes. In India, the
Election Commission has prohibited it in the 48 hours before the start of polling.
462:. Then, a subsequent poll conducted just two days later showed Bush ahead of Gore by seven points. It was soon determined that the volatility of the results was at least in part due to an uneven distribution of Democratic and Republican affiliated voters in the samples. Though the Gallup Organization argued the volatility in the poll was a genuine representation of the electorate, other
1054:, outlines three additional "behavioural" responses that voters may exhibit when faced with polling data. The first is known as a "cue taking" effect which holds that poll data is used as a "proxy" for information about the candidates or parties. Cue taking is "based on the psychological phenomenon of using heuristics to simplify a complex decision" (243).
594:(select only one candidate) in a poll puts an unintentional bias into the poll, since people who favor more than one candidate cannot indicate this. The fact that they must choose only one candidate biases the poll, causing it to favor the candidate most different from the others while it disfavors candidates who are similar to other candidates. The
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error to 1% they would need a sample of around 10,000 people. In practice, pollsters need to balance the cost of a large sample against the reduction in sampling error and a sample size of around 500â1,000 is a typical compromise for political polls. (To get complete responses it may be necessary to include thousands of additional participators.)
756:. In previous elections, the proportion of the general population using cell phones was small, but as this proportion has increased, there is concern that polling only landlines is no longer representative of the general population. In 2003, only 2.9% of households were wireless (cellphones only), compared to 12.8% in 2006. This results in "
634:". This type of leading question may concern an uncomfortable or controversial issue, and/or automatically assume the subject of the question is related to the respondent(s) or that they are knowledgeable about it. Likewise, the questions are then worded in a way that limit the possible answers, typically to yes or no.
1010:. This theory is based on the idea that voters view the act of voting as a means of selecting a government. Thus they will sometimes not choose the candidate they prefer on ground of ideology or sympathy, but another, less-preferred, candidate from strategic considerations. An example can be found in the
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Some jurisdictions over the world restrict the publication of the results of opinion polls, especially during the period around an election, in order to prevent the possibly erroneous results from affecting voters' decisions. For instance, in Canada, it is prohibited to publish the results of opinion
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The relative importance of these factors was, and remains, a matter of controversy. Polling organizations have since then adjusted their methodologies and have achieved more accurate results in subsequent election campaigns. A comprehensive discussion of these biases and how they should be understood
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ways, (but) they were neither numerous enough nor different enough on the questions we examined to produce a significant change in overall general population survey estimates when included with the landline samples and weighted according to US Census parameters on basic demographic characteristics."
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Sample
Techniques are also used and recommended to reduce sample errors and errors of margin. In chapter four of author Herb Asher he says,"it is probability sampling and statistical theory that enable one to determine sampling error, confidence levels, and the like and to generalize from the results
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prior to the election of 1824. A study of the background of the election shows these polling efforts were a natural outgrowth of a campaign involving the voters' first real choice of a president and four colorful candidates. Some researchers have attributed the origins of polling to other papers and
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Polling organizations have developed many weighting techniques to help overcome these deficiencies, with varying degrees of success. Studies of mobile phone users by the Pew
Research Center in the US, in 2007, concluded that "cell-only respondents are different from landline respondents in important
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One of the criticisms of opinion polls is that societal assumptions that opinions between which there is no logical link are "correlated attitudes" can push people with one opinion into a group that forces them to pretend to have a supposedly linked but actually unrelated opinion. That, in turn, may
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are used for a number of purposes. First, it lets the candidate know if they have made any progress on the ballot, how much progress has been made, and in what demographics they have been making or losing ground. Secondly, it is a way for the campaign to test a variety of messages, both positive and
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do not support the entire prohibition of the publication of pre-election opinion polls; most of them have no regulation and some only prohibit it in the final days or hours until the relevant poll closes. A survey by Canada's Royal
Commission on Electoral Reform reported that the prohibition period
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and party ideology shifts must also be taken under consideration. Opinion polling in some instances is a measure of cognitive bias, which is variably considered and handled appropriately in its various applications. In turn, non-nuanced reporting by the media about poll data and public opinions can
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problems. It has been suggested that attempts to counteract unethical opinions by condemning supposedly linked opinions may favor the groups that promote the actually unethical opinions by forcing people with supposedly linked opinions into them by ostracism elsewhere in society making such efforts
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Thus comparisons between polls often boil down to the wording of the question. On some issues, question wording can result in quite pronounced differences between surveys. This can also, however, be a result of legitimately conflicted feelings or evolving attitudes, rather than a poorly constructed
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serves a number of purposes for a campaign, whether it is a political campaign or some other type of campaign. First, it gives the candidate a picture of where they stand with the electorate before any campaigning takes place. If the poll is done prior to announcing for office the candidate may use
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steadily gaining support, which may have prompted undecided voters or supporters of other parties to support Twigg in order to remove
Portillo. Another example is the boomerang effect where the likely supporters of the candidate shown to be winning feel that chances are slim and that their vote is
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extermination of the Jews never happened?" The confusing wording of this question led to inaccurate results which indicated that 22 percent of respondents believed it seemed possible the
Holocaust might not have ever happened. When the question was reworded, significantly fewer respondents (only 1
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Some people responding may not understand the words being used, but may wish to avoid the embarrassment of admitting this, or the poll mechanism may not allow clarification, so they may make an arbitrary choice. Some percentage of people also answer whimsically or out of annoyance at being polled.
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These controls are not widely used in the polling industry.. However, as it is important that questions to test the product have a high quality, survey methodologists work on methods to test them. Empirical tests provide insight into the quality of the questionnaire, some may be more complex than
512:
A 3% margin of error means that if the same procedure is used a large number of times, 95% of the time the true population average will be within the sample estimate plus or minus 3%. The margin of error can be reduced by using a larger sample, however if a pollster wishes to reduce the margin of
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to measure the opinions of the whole population based only on a subset, and for this purpose the absolute size of the sample is important, but the percentage of the whole population is not important (unless it happens to be close to the sample size). The possible difference between the sample and
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is generally the first poll taken in a campaign. It is often taken before a candidate announces their bid for office, but sometimes it happens immediately following that announcement after they have had some opportunity to raise funds. This is generally a short and simple survey of likely voters.
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surveys, where a sample is drawn from a large panel of volunteers, and the results are weighted to reflect the demographics of the population of interest. In contrast, popular web polls draw on whoever wishes to participate, rather than a scientific sample of the population, and are therefore not
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The second, first described by Petty and
Cacioppo (1996), is known as "cognitive response" theory. This theory asserts that a voter's response to a poll may not line with their initial conception of the electoral reality. In response, the voter is likely to generate a "mental list" in which they
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Social media today is a popular medium for the candidates to campaign and for gauging the public reaction to the campaigns. Social media can also be used as an indicator of the voter opinion regarding the poll. Some research studies have shown that predictions made using social media signals can
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shows them what types of voters they are sure to win, those they are sure to lose, and everyone in-between these two extremes. This lets the campaign know which voters are persuadable so they can spend their limited resources in the most effective manner. Second, it can give them an idea of what
441:
However, these polls are sometimes subject to dramatic fluctuations, and so political campaigns and candidates are cautious in analyzing their results. An example of a tracking poll that generated controversy over its accuracy, is one conducted during the 2000 U.S. presidential election, by the
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Polls can be used in the public relations field as well. In the early 1920s, public relation experts described their work as a two-way street. Their job would be to present the misinterpreted interests of large institutions to public. They would also gauge the typically ignored interests of the
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There were also substantial polling errors in the presidential elections of 1952, 1980, 1996, 2000, and 2016: while the first three correctly predicted the winner (albeit not the extent of their winning margin), with the last two correctly predicting the winner of the popular vote (but not the
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For instance, the public is more likely to indicate support for a person who is described by the surveyor as one of the "leading candidates". This description is "leading" as it indicates a subtle bias for that candidate, since it implies that the others in the race are not serious contenders.
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of the responses that were gathered over a fixed number of the most recent periods, for example the past five days. In this example, the next calculated results will use data for five days counting backwards from the next day, namely the same data as before, but with the data from the next day
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furthermore aggressively promoted consumerism, and minimized the value of (or need for) advertising. Historian
Jackson Lears argues that "By the late 1930s, though, corporate advertisers had begun a successful counterattack against their critics." They rehabilitated the concept of consumer
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than the most popular mainstream news stories; many people who see fake news stories report that they believe them; and the most discussed fake news stories tended to favor Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton. As a result of these facts, some have concluded that if not for these stories,
318:
Opinion polls for many years were maintained through telecommunications or in person-to-person contact. Methods and techniques vary, though they are widely accepted in most areas. Over the years, technological innovations have also influenced survey methods such as the availability of
1156:, which promotes those in power and discredits alternative candidates. Many respondents in Russia do not want to answer pollsters' questions for fear of negative consequences. On 23 March 2023, criminal case was opened against Moscow resident Yury Kokhovets, a participant in the
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effect. It is often mentioned in the media. This occurs when people vote, out of sympathy, for the party perceived to be "losing" the elections. There is less empirical evidence for the existence of this effect than there is for the existence of the bandwagon effect.
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poll results or comparing them to polls in democratic states was irrelevant, as there is no real political competition in Russia, where, unlike in democratic states, Russian voters are not offered any credible alternatives and public opinion is primarily formed by
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Brendan O'Connor, Ramnath Balasubramanyan, Bryan R Routledge, and Noah A Smith. From Tweets to Polls: Linking Text Sentiment to Public Opinion Time Series. In Proceedings of the International AAAI Conference on Weblogs and Social Media. AAAI Press, pp. 122â129,
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Over time, a number of theories and mechanisms have been offered to explain erroneous polling results. Some of these reflect errors on the part of the pollsters; many of them are statistical in nature. Others blame the respondents for not giving candid answers
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spent much effort in vain trying to discredit this theory in his time by presenting empirical research. A recent meta-study of scientific research on this topic indicates that from the 1980s onward the Bandwagon effect is found more often by researchers.
1561:"Vasileios Lampos, Daniel Preotiuc-Pietro and Trevor Cohn. A user-centric model of voting intention from social media. Proceedings of the 51st Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics. ACL, pp. 993-1003, 2013 Retrieved 16-06-4"
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Viewed from a long-term perspective, advertising had come under heavy pressure in the early 1930s. The Great Depression forced businesses to drastically cut back on their advertising spending. Layoffs and reductions were common at all agencies. The
936:. Evidence shows that social media plays a huge role in the supplying of news: 62 percent of US adults get news on social media. This fact makes the issue of fake news on social media more pertinent. Other evidence shows that the most popular
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A common technique to control for this bias is to rotate the order in which questions are asked. Many pollsters also split-sample. This involves having two different versions of a question, with each version presented to half the respondents.
897:, the opposite appears to have occurred. Most polls predicted an increased Conservative majority, even though in reality the election resulted in a hung parliament with a Conservative plurality: some polls correctly predicted this outcome.
217:; those who favored Landon were more enthusiastic about returning their postcards. Furthermore, the postcards were sent to a target audience who were more affluent than the American population as a whole, and therefore more likely to have
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asking enough questions to allow all aspects of an issue to be covered and to control effects due to the form of the question (such as positive or negative wording), the adequacy of the number being established quantitatively with
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taken by a campaign is determined by how competitive the race is and how much money the campaign has to spend. These polls usually focus on likely voters and the length of the survey varies on the number of messages being tested.
1118:, "It's no longer necessary for a political candidate to guess what an audience thinks. He can with a nightly tracking poll. So it's no longer likely that political leaders are going to lead. Instead, they're going to follow."
327:
Opinion polling developed into popular applications through popular thought, although response rates for some surveys declined. Also, the following has also led to differentiating results: Some polling organizations, such as
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It is difficult to get co-operation from cellphone users, because in many parts of the US, users are charged for both outgoing and incoming calls. That means that pollsters have had to offer financial compensation to gain
760:". Many polling organisations select their sample by dialling random telephone numbers; however, in 2008, there was a clear tendency for polls which included mobile phones in their samples to show a much larger lead for
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asserts that opinion polls are actually a device for influencing public opinion. The various theories about how this happens can be split into two groups: bandwagon/underdog effects, and strategic ("tactical") voting.
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Some households use cellphones only and have no landline. This tends to include minorities and younger voters; and occurs more frequently in metropolitan areas. Men are more likely to be cellphone-only compared to
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Brodie, Mollyann, et al. "The Past, Present, And Possible Future Of Public Opinion On The ACA: A review of 102 nationally representative public opinion polls about the Affordable Care Act, 2010 through 2019."
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and Internet based polling. Verbal, ballot, and processed types can be conducted efficiently, contrasted with other types of surveys, systematics, and complicated matrices beyond previous orthodox procedures.
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Among the factors that impact the results of Opinion Polls, are the wording and order of the questions being posed by the surveyor. Questions that intentionally affect a respondents answer are referred to as
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These effects indicate how opinion polls can directly affect political choices of the electorate. But directly or indirectly, other effects can be surveyed and analyzed on all political parties. The form of
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took steps to reduce such wide variations in their results. One such step included manipulating the proportion of Democrats and Republicans in any given sample, but this method is subject to controversy.
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carrying out a small pretest of the questionnaire, using a small subset of target respondents. Results can inform a researcher of errors such as missing questions, or logical and procedural errors.
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161:. Since Jackson won the popular vote in that state and the national popular vote, such straw votes gradually became more popular, but they remained local, usually citywide phenomena.
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FernĂĄndez-Prados, Juan SebastiĂĄn, Cristina Cuenca-Piqueras, and MarĂa JosĂ© GonzĂĄlez-Moreno. "International public opinion surveys and public policy in Southern European democracies."
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Some polling companies have attempted to get around that problem by including a "cellphone supplement". There are a number of problems with including cellphones in a telephone poll:
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the poll to decide whether or not they should even run for office. Secondly, it shows them where their weaknesses and strengths are in two main areas. The first is the electorate. A
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Starting in the 1980s, tracking polls and related technologies began having a notable impact on U.S. political leaders. According to Douglas Bailey, a Republican who had helped run
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occurs when the poll prompts voters to back the candidate shown to be winning in the poll. The idea that voters are susceptible to such effects is old, stemming at least from 1884;
893:, virtually every poll predicted a hung parliament with Labour and the Conservatives neck and neck, when the actual result was a clear Conservative majority. On the other hand, in
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A caution is that an estimate of a trend is subject to a larger error than an estimate of a level. This is because if one estimates the change, the difference between two numbers
1993:
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nonpartisan "fact tank" providing information on the issues, attitudes and trends shaping America and the world by conducting public opinion polling and social science research
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would increase its majority. However, the preliminary results on election night showed a hung parliament with National one seat short of a majority, leading to Prime Minister
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121:. Opinion polls are usually designed to represent the opinions of a population by conducting a series of questions and then extrapolating generalities in ratio or within
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Pickup, Mark (2010). "Election Campaign Polls and Democracy in Canada: Examining the Evidence behind the Common Claims". In Anderson, Cameron; Stephenson, Laura (eds.).
579:, and thus polls might not reflect the true incidence of these attitudes in the population. In American political parlance, this phenomenon is often referred to as the
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in 1936. For example, telephone sampling has a built-in error because in many times and places, those with telephones have generally been richer than those without.
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soon went out of business, while polling started to take off. Roper went on to correctly predict the two subsequent reelections of President Franklin D. Roosevelt.
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Another source of error is the use of samples that are not representative of the population as a consequence of the methodology used, as was the experience of
551:
Since some people do not answer calls from strangers, or refuse to answer the poll, poll samples may not be representative samples from a population due to a
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Andrews, F. M. (1984). Construct validity and error components of survey measures: a structural modelling approach. Public Opinion Quarterly, 48, 409-442.
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cause people who have the first opinion to claim on polls that they have the second opinion without having it, causing opinion polls to become part of
870:. Major polling organizations, including Gallup and Roper, had indicated that Dewey would defeat Truman in a landslide; Truman won a narrow victory.
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estimating the measurement quality of the questions. This can be done for instance using test-retest, quasi-simplex, or mutlitrait-multimethod models.
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Murphy, Joe, et al. "Social Media in Public Opinion Research: Report of the AAPOR Task Force on Emerging Technologies in Public Opinion Research."
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837:": Conservatives had suffered a sustained period of unpopularity as a result of economic difficulties and a series of minor scandals, leading to a
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Questions". These are more often the result of human error, rather than intentional manipulation. One such example is a survey done in 1992 by the
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Saris, W. E. and Gallhofer, I. N. (2014). Design, evaluation and analysis of questionnaires for survey research. Second Edition. Hoboken, Wiley.
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827:: voters who changed their minds shortly before voting tended to favour the Conservatives, so the error was not as great as it first appeared.
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analyzing the results with psychometric techniques which synthesize the answers into a few reliable scores and detect ineffective questions.
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Kim So Young, Wolinsky-Nahmias Yael (2014). "Cross-national public opinion on climate change: the effects of affluence and vulnerability".
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is a poll in which responses are obtained in a number of consecutive periods, for instance daily, and then results are calculated using a
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2070:"Political Polling in the Digital Age: The Challenge of Measuring and Understanding Public Opinion" by Robert K. Goidel, yr twenty-eleven
807:. Despite the polling organizations using different methodologies, virtually all the polls taken before the vote, and to a lesser extent
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Eagly, Alice H., et al. "Gender stereotypes have changed: A cross-temporal meta-analysis of US public opinion polls from 1946 to 2018."
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694:. By asking a sample of potential-respondents about their interpretation of the questions and use of the questionnaire, a researcher can
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2761:"Opinion: The truth about Putin's 86-percent approval rating. How people fail to understand survey data about support for the Kremlin"
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By providing information about voting intentions, opinion polls can sometimes influence the behavior of electors, and in his book
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Nonresponse bias: Conservative voters were less likely to participate in surveys than in the past and were thus underrepresented.
1971:
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819:. In their deliberations after this embarrassment, the pollsters advanced several ideas to account for their errors, including:
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2206:"Wireless Substitution: Early Release of Estimates Based on Data from the National Health Interview Survey, JulyâDecember 2006"
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Heise, D. R.(1969). Separating reliability and stability in test-retest correlation. American Sociological Review, 34, 93-101.
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conducted surveys that were far smaller but more scientifically based, and all three managed to correctly predict the result.
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The earliest forerunners of the modern public opinion poll appear to be tallies of voter preferences reported by the Raleigh
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powers helped to create survey institutes in all of the Western occupation zones of Germany in 1947 and 1948 to better steer
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583:. If the results of surveys are widely publicized this effect may be magnified â a phenomenon commonly referred to as the
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in that year. It has also remained persistent in spite of a lack of empirical corroboration until the late 20th century.
252:", looking for popular support or dissent with this question asked by appeasement politician and future collaborationist
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2615:"Debate: Reporting pre-election polls: it is less about average Jane and Joe, and more about polarized Karen and Kevin"
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predicting the measurement quality of the question. This can be done using the software Survey Quality Predictor (SQP).
619:. Individuals and/or groups use these types of questions in surveys to elicit responses favorable to their interests.
248:, as the first European survey institute in Paris. Stoetzel started political polls in summer 1939 with the question "
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Tim Bale (2002). "Restricting the broadcast and publication of pre-election and exit polls: some selected examples".
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The Growing Gap between Landline and Dual Frame Election Polls: Republican Vote Share Bigger in Landline-Only Surveys
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An estimate of the margin of error in percentage terms can be gained by the formula 100 Ă· square root of sample size
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alone, with reporting the first public opinion poll. Others give much later dates for the first poll, mentioning a
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surveys that would identify specific political parties or candidates in the final three days before a poll closes.
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had been in the field of public opinion since 1947 when he joined the Elmo Roper firm, then later became partner.
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Tankard, James W. (1972). "Public Opinion Polling by Newspapers in the Presidential Election Campaign of 1824".
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Some people may not be contactable by landline from Monday to Friday and may be contactable only by cellphone.
543:. A rough guide is that if the change in measurement falls outside the margin of error it is worth attention.
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Dyczok, Marta. "Information wars: hegemony, counter-hegemony, propaganda, the use of force, and resistance."
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Mobocracy: How the Media's Obsession with Polling Twists the News, Alters Elections, and Undermines Democracy
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2825:"Russian police upgrade charges against Moscow resident in 'fake news' case over comment for Radio Liberty"
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794:). Numbers therefore have to be dialled by hand, which is more time-consuming and expensive for pollsters.
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which reflects the effects of chance and uncertainty in the sampling process. Sampling polls rely on the
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in which some Conservative supporters were reluctant to disclose their sincere intentions to pollsters.
778:
Some people use their landlines only to access the Internet, and answer calls only to their cellphones.
3053:
2705:
1733:"Minority Opinions:Hardly anyone responds to public opinion surveys anymore. Can we still trust them?"
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Bandwagons, Underdogs, the Titanic and the Red Cross: The Influence of Public Opinion Polls on Voters
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exclaiming "bugger the pollsters" on live national television. The official count saw National gain
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Kang, Liu, and Yun-Han Chu. "China's Rise through World Public Opinion: Editorial Introduction."
2337:
Salant, Priscilla, I. Dillman, and A. Don. How to conduct your own survey. No. 300.723 S3.. 1994.
816:
595:
591:
555:. Response rates have been declining, and are down to about 10% in recent years. Because of this
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embarked on a national survey (partly as a circulation-raising exercise) and correctly predicted
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2014:
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Lord, F. and Novick, M. R.(1968). Statistical theories of mental test scores. Addison â Wesley.
999:
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The first known example of an opinion poll was a tally of voter preferences reported by the
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1597:
Kenneth F. Warren (1992). "in Defense of Public Opinion Polling." Westview Press. p. 200-1.
1153:
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In the United Kingdom, most polls failed to predict the Conservative election victories of
691:
501:
463:
249:
122:
2561:"Opinion Polls, Coalition Signals and Strategic Voting: Evidence from a Survey Experiment"
2000:, Yale Program on Climate Change Communication, Published 2014-05-27, Retrieved 2016-06-05
209:
would win the presidential election, but Roosevelt was instead re-elected by a landslide.
8:
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This issue was first identified in 2004, but came to prominence only during the 2008
584:
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1007:
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824:
790:
US federal law prohibits the use of automated dialling devices to call cellphones (
734:
627:
616:
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846:
and mitigated is included in several sources including Dillman and Salant (1994).
5826:
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1997:
1978:
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986:
932:, a major concern has been that of the effect of false stories spread throughout
863:
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An oft-quoted example of opinion polls succumbing to errors occurred during the
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287:
263:
191:
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150:
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The second category of theories on how polls directly affect voting is called
348:
Recently, statistical learning methods have been proposed in order to exploit
253:
6018:
5932:
5899:
5762:
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5534:
5503:
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4228:
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2952:
The Superpollsters: How They Measure and Manipulate Public Opinion in America
2829:
2790:
2648:
1330:
1189:
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1144:
1031:
991:
984:
reported that the term was first used in a political cartoon in the magazine
855:
675:
568:
241:
210:
2936:
Glynn, Carroll J., Susan Herbst, Garrett J. O'Keefe, and Robert Y. Shapiro.
2576:
2079:"Understanding Public Opinion Polls" by Jelke Bethlehem, yr twenty-seventeen
1882:(Ninth ed.). Thousand Oaks, California: SAGE CQ Press. pp. 82â86.
1807:
602:
This results in perhaps 4% of Americans reporting they have personally been
5874:
5807:
5784:
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4325:
4158:
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1812:
1234:
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859:
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517:
349:
320:
234:
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5917:
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5325:
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4110:
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3829:
3126:
3079:
2468:
2257:
1289:
1111:
1040:
649:. The question read "Does it seem possible or impossible to you that the
290:. By the 1950s, various types of polling had spread to most democracies.
1719:
Introduction to Bayesian Statistics and Estimation for Social Scientists
1708:, American Association for Public Opinion Research, Retrieved 2016-06-05
1079:
4763:
4243:
3943:
3874:
3824:
3799:
3719:
3474:
1274:
1249:
1224:
909:
226:
206:
2931:
Public opinion and polling around the world: a historical encyclopedia
1797:
American Association for Public Opinion Research, Retrieved 2016-06-05
4916:
4768:
4388:
4183:
4095:
4080:
4075:
4040:
1244:
1199:
1050:
In addition, Mark Pickup, in Cameron Anderson and Laura Stephenson's
1023:
937:
808:
646:
3011:
Dictionary of Polling: The Language of Contemporary Opinion Research
919:
4432:
4050:
3927:
3922:
3917:
3065:
2896:
Survey Research in the United States: Roots and Emergence 1890â1960
2505:
Hitchens, Peter (2009). "Chapter 1, Guy Fawkes Gets a Blackberry".
941:
438:
included, and without the data from the sixth day before that day.
386:
messages, ideas, or slogans are the strongest with the electorate.
341:
295:
175:
2987:
The Pollsters: Public Opinion, Politics, and Democratic Leadership
1545:
The Market Research Terminal & Developments in Survey Research
637:
Another type of question that can produce inaccurate results are "
274:: virtually all other commentators had expected a victory for the
5937:
5638:
1507:
Fables Of Abundance: A Cultural History Of Advertising In America
451:
353:
2364:"Pollsters, prophets and politics: On the ball or off the mark?"
2349:
Lost in a Gallup: Polling Failure in U.S. Presidential Elections
1679:
5859:
4840:
4814:
4794:
4045:
3836:
3619:
3224:
3120:
1981:, Pew Research Center Published 2013-07-26 Retrieved 2016-06-05
1636:(Ninth ed.). Thousand Oaks, California. pp. 196â198.
1547:â, European Journal of Marketing, Vol. 20 Issue: 2, pp.35 - 39.
1148:
576:
572:
333:
3004:
Ratings Analysis: The Theory and Practice of Audience Research
2807:"Why Do So Many Russians Say They Support the War in Ukraine?"
1532:
Survey Research in the United States: Roots and Emergence 1960
1160:
street poll. He faced up to 10 years in prison under Russia's
854:
A widely publicized failure of opinion polling to date in the
748:
Voter turnout by race/ethnicity, 2008 US presidential election
686:
others. For instance, testing a questionnaire can be done by:
3688:
707:
307:
1935:
Polling and the public : what every citizen should know
1880:
Polling and the public : what every citizen should know
1841:
Polling and the public : what every citizen should know
1634:
Polling and the public : what every citizen should know
1441:, Thousand Oaks: SAGE Publications, Inc., pp. 170â171,
3779:
2917:
The Gallup Poll Cumulative Index: Public Opinion, 1935â1997
815:, while the actual vote gave a clear victory to the ruling
650:
2667:"David S. Broder: The best political reporter of his time"
1380:
poll, so that credit for the first polls should go to the
1372:
election forecasts prior to 1900. It now appears that the
1035:
not required, thus allowing another candidate to win. For
3554:
Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia Survey
2888:(1951), massive compilation of many public opinion polls
1937:(Ninth ed.). Thousand Oaks, California. p. 82.
1843:(Ninth ed.). Thousand Oaks, California. p. 75.
2390:"This much is clear: 100% of pollsters have got no idea"
516:
Another way to reduce the margin of error is to rely on
1689:, National Council on Public Polls Retrieved 2016-06-05
356:) for modelling and predicting voting intention polls.
109:(although strictly a poll is an actual election), is a
3050:
Journal of International and Comparative Social Policy
2848:
Polling and the Public. What Every Citizen Should Know
1972:
Government Surveillance: A Question Wording Experiment
1680:
20 Questions Journalists Should Ask About Poll Results
811:
taken on voting day, showed a lead for the opposition
352:
content (such as posts on the micro-blogging platform
213:'s research found that the error was mainly caused by
2959:
Trends in Public Opinion: A Compendium of Survey Data
2507:
The Broken Compass: How British Politics Lost its Way
2116:
Pew Research Center, 2010-11-22; Retrieved 2016-06-05
1368:
survey during the 1896 presidential campaign and the
496:
Polls based on samples of populations are subject to
5601:
Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH)
2957:
Niemi, Richard G., John Mueller, Tom W. Smith, eds.
2203:
949:
may not have won the election over Hillary Clinton.
143:
Wilmington American Watchman and Delaware Advertiser
3620:
European Society for Opinion and Marketing Research
2089:
http://transition.fcc.gov/cgb/policy/TCPA-Rules.pdf
916:to hold a one-seat majority and retain government.
5063:
2865:Polls and Surveys: Understanding What They Tell Us
2591:
2130:. Pew Research Center Publications. Archived from
2011:"The Seven Stages of Public Opinion Public Agenda"
1991:What's In A Name? Global Warming vs Climate Change
1205:Historical polling for U.S. Presidential elections
491:
205:, its survey of 2.3 million voters suggested that
174:'s election as president. Mailing out millions of
125:. A person who conducts polls is referred to as a
2786:"In Russia, opinion polls are a political weapon"
2660:
2658:
2449:"Social Media and Fake News in the 2016 Election"
1758:"About Response Rates: Some Unresolved Questions"
1699:Margin of Sampling Error and Credibility Interval
1352:other historical periods. Some have credited the
920:Social media as a source of opinion on candidates
6016:
3615:American Association for Public Opinion Research
3574:National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey
3096:American Association for Public Opinion Research
2612:
2509:. Continuum International Publishing Group Ltd.
2447:Allcott, Hunt; Gentzkow, Matthew (Spring 2017).
2285:
2177:
2151:
1260:American Association for Public Opinion Research
1138:
5149:Multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS)
2919:(1999) lists 10,000+ questions, but no results.
2704:, Library of Parliament, Canada, archived from
2613:Willems, Jurgen; Meyfroodt, Kenn (2024-01-30).
2446:
2279:
2171:
1600:
1591:
3569:List of household surveys in the United States
2655:
2145:
678:measures such as reliability coefficients, and
397:are polls taken during the period between the
311:Voter polling questionnaire on display at the
266:that was almost alone in correctly predicting
3704:
3635:World Association for Public Opinion Research
3142:
2926:3 vol (1972) summarizes results of each poll.
2545:Irwin, Galen A. and Joop J. M. Van Holsteyn.
2419:"News Use Across Social Media Platforms 2016"
2128:"How Serious Is Polling's Cell-Only Problem?"
2125:
1583:
1581:
1503:
1477:
1265:World Association for Public Opinion Research
1147:stated in 2015 that drawing conclusions from
302:
244:, after having met Gallup, created IFOP, the
139:Raleigh Star and North Carolina State Gazette
43:The examples and perspective in this article
3584:Suffolk University Political Research Center
3062:24.92 (2015): 197â202; polls in US and China
2697:
2693:
2691:
2498:
2311:
2256:
2197:
1755:
1555:
1553:
1067:thus even aggravate political polarization.
998:The opposite of the bandwagon effect is the
900:In New Zealand, the polls leading up to the
535:then one has to contend with errors in both
2154:"More Pollsters Interviewing By Cell Phone"
1730:
1543:G. Rowley, K. Barker, V. Callaghan (1986) â
1482:. Princeton University Press. p. vii.
798:
470:
157:by 335 votes to 169 in the contest for the
3749:
3711:
3697:
3156:
3149:
3135:
3002:, Patricia F. Phalen, Lawrence W. Lichty;
2924:The Gallup Poll; Public Opinion, 1935â1971
2305:
2119:
1957:: CS1 maint: location missing publisher (
1863:: CS1 maint: location missing publisher (
1749:
1656:: CS1 maint: location missing publisher (
1578:
1402:"Why the 1936 Literary Digest Poll Failed"
708:Involuntary facades and false correlations
182:also correctly predicted the victories of
4362:
2688:
2638:
2467:
2361:
1550:
1478:Cantril, Hadley; Strunk, Mildred (1951).
1473:
1471:
1349:American Watchman and Delaware Advertiser
792:Telephone Consumer Protection Act of 1991
505:whole population is often expressed as a
85:Learn how and when to remove this message
2863:Bradburn, Norman M. and Seymour Sudman.
2724:
2541:
2539:
2504:
2423:Pew Research Center's Journalism Project
2346:
2250:
1432:
1376:merely was reporting the results of the
1255:Roper Center for Public Opinion Research
1070:
743:
654:percent) expressed that same sentiment.
306:
3594:Quinnipiac University Polling Institute
2718:
1439:Encyclopedia of Survey Research Methods
1308:
609:
598:also biases elections in the same way.
14:
6017:
5675:KaplanâMeier estimator (product limit)
3579:New Zealand Attitudes and Values Study
3526:Comparative Study of Electoral Systems
2964:Oskamp, Stuart and P. Wesley Schultz;
2664:
2589:
2558:
1468:
1399:
1037:party-list proportional representation
221:sympathies. At the same time, Gallup,
5748:
5315:
5062:
4361:
4131:
3748:
3692:
3130:
3017:
2945:Presidential Polls and the News Media
2856:, "Public Opinion does not exist" in
2804:
2536:
1932:
1877:
1838:
1631:
1393:
1345:Star and North Carolina State Gazette
1014:. As he was then a Cabinet Minister,
733:In some places many people have only
665:The most effective controls, used by
5985:
5685:Accelerated failure time (AFT) model
2903:Public Opinion, Polls, and Democracy
2370:from the original on 30 January 2019
1933:Asher, Herbert B. (16 August 2016).
1914:from the original on 28 October 2020
1878:Asher, Herbert B. (16 August 2016).
1839:Asher, Herbert B. (16 August 2016).
1808:"Episode 714: Can A Game Show Lose?"
1632:Asher, Herbert B. (16 August 2016).
1428:
1426:
1074:
1012:1997 United Kingdom general election
626:In opinion polling, there are also "
488:); these can be more controversial.
246:Institut Français d'Opinion Publique
29:
5997:
5280:Analysis of variance (ANOVA, anova)
4132:
3625:International Statistical Institute
2994:The Voter's Guide to Election Polls
2665:Kaiser, Robert G. (March 9, 2011).
2204:Blumberg SJ, Luke JV (2007-05-14).
1039:opinion polling helps voters avoid
957:
940:stories were more widely shared on
767:The potential sources of bias are:
546:
345:generally considered professional.
24:
5375:CochranâMantelâHaenszel statistics
4001:Pearson product-moment correlation
3516:American National Election Studies
3506:List of comparative social surveys
3006:Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, 2000.
2640:1854/LU-01HNDE8TMQF8BFNFMTD2P3A21T
2314:"The Cellphone Problem, Revisited"
2288:"More Cell Phone Data from Gallup"
2013:. Publicagenda.org. Archived from
567:Survey results may be affected by
389:
363:
25:
6071:
3105:
2598:. Vancouver: UBC Press. pp.
2362:McCulloch, Craig (2 April 2017).
2351:. University of California Press.
2262:"The Cellphone effect, continued"
1435:"Crossley, Archibald (1896â1985)"
1423:
925:match traditional opinion polls.
446:. The results for one day showed
420:
178:and simply counting the returns,
5996:
5984:
5972:
5959:
5958:
5749:
3033:Russian Journal of Communication
2701:Public opinion polling in Canada
2456:Journal of Economic Perspectives
1820:from the original on 1 July 2020
1078:
1043:their vote on a party below the
721:
562:
101:, often simply referred to as a
34:
5634:Least-squares spectral analysis
2817:
2805:Yaffa, Joshua (29 March 2022).
2798:
2778:
2753:
2677:from the original on 2011-06-29
2606:
2583:
2552:
2523:
2487:from the original on 2017-10-18
2440:
2429:from the original on 2017-01-15
2411:
2400:from the original on 2020-06-03
2382:
2355:
2340:
2331:
2320:from the original on 2009-01-06
2286:Blumenthal, Mark (2008-10-17).
2268:from the original on 2008-12-04
2218:from the original on 2009-06-06
2211:. Centers for Disease Control.
2178:Blumenthal, Mark (2008-07-17).
2152:Blumenthal, Mark (2008-09-19).
2100:
2082:
2073:
2064:
2055:
2046:
2037:
2028:
2003:
1984:
1965:
1926:
1896:
1871:
1832:
1800:
1781:
1770:from the original on 2017-07-20
1724:
1711:
1692:
1673:
1664:
1625:
1614:from the original on 2012-11-04
1567:from the original on 2015-11-11
1486:from the original on 2009-06-29
1412:from the original on 2022-01-04
930:2016 U.S. presidential election
492:Margin of error due to sampling
454:with an eleven-point lead over
4615:Mean-unbiased minimum-variance
3718:
2943:Lavrakas, Paul J. et al. eds.
2565:Scandinavian Political Studies
2533:, page 42. Random House, 1993.
2290:. Pollster.com. Archived from
2156:. Pollster.com. Archived from
1537:
1524:
1497:
1302:
13:
1:
5928:Geographic information system
5144:Simultaneous equations models
3068:Global Environmental Politics
3060:Journal of Contemporary China
2910:Public Opinion in a Democracy
2898:(1987), the standard history.
2840:
2698:Claude Emery (January 1994),
2631:10.1080/09540962.2024.2306912
2619:Public Money & Management
2531:Safire's Political Dictionary
2180:"New Pew data on cell phones"
1210:List of polling organizations
1139:Opinion poll in dictatorships
1121:
1026:but opinion polls showed the
868:1948 US presidential election
262:launched a subsidiary in the
5111:Coefficient of determination
4722:Uniformly most powerful test
2347:Campbell, W. Joseph (2020).
2126:Keeter, Scott (2007-06-27).
1510:. Basic Books. p. 235.
1296:
952:
7:
5680:Proportional hazards models
5624:Spectral density estimation
5606:Vector autoregression (VAR)
5040:Maximum posterior estimator
4272:Randomized controlled trial
3559:International Social Survey
2922:Gallup, George Horace, ed.
2312:Silver, Nate (2008-07-22).
1788:Response Rates: An Overview
1480:"Public Opinion, 1935â1946"
1433:Dietrich, Bryce J. (2008),
1167:
849:
764:, than polls that did not.
61:, discuss the issue on the
10:
6076:
5440:Multivariate distributions
3860:Average absolute deviation
2594:Voting Behaviour in Canada
2182:. Pollster. Archived from
1904:"Question Wording - AAPOR"
1731:Will Oremus (2012-05-17).
1608:"About the Tracking Polls"
1323:10.1177/107769907204900219
1132:Western democratic nations
1116:1976 presidential campaign
1052:Voting Behaviour in Canada
885:, and Labour's victory in
303:Sample and polling methods
147:1824 presidential election
132:
47:the English-speaking world
5954:
5908:
5845:
5798:
5761:
5757:
5744:
5716:
5698:
5665:
5656:
5614:
5561:
5522:
5471:
5462:
5428:Structural equation model
5383:
5340:
5336:
5311:
5270:
5236:
5190:
5157:
5119:
5086:
5082:
5058:
4998:
4907:
4826:
4790:
4781:
4764:Score/Lagrange multiplier
4749:
4702:
4647:
4573:
4564:
4374:
4370:
4357:
4316:
4290:
4242:
4197:
4179:Sample size determination
4144:
4140:
4127:
4031:
3986:
3960:
3942:
3898:
3850:
3770:
3761:
3757:
3744:
3726:
3643:
3607:
3589:The Phillips Academy Poll
3498:
3462:
3417:Exploratory data analysis
3387:
3307:
3270:Sample size determination
3215:
3165:
2886:Public Opinion, 1935â1946
2884:and Mildred Strunk, eds.
2739:10.1080/00344890208523210
1756:Langer, Gary (May 2003).
1400:Squire, Peverill (1988).
1270:Sample size determination
1235:Political data scientists
1175:Deliberative opinion poll
330:Angus Reid Public Opinion
6060:Surveys (human research)
5923:Environmental statistics
5445:Elliptical distributions
5238:Generalized linear model
5167:Simple linear regression
4937:HodgesâLehmann estimator
4394:Probability distribution
4303:Stochastic approximation
3865:Coefficient of variation
2850:(4th ed. CQ Press, 1998)
1406:Public Opinion Quarterly
1354:Harrisburg Pennsylvanian
1162:2022 war censorship laws
904:predicted the governing
858:was the prediction that
805:1992 UK general election
799:1992 UK general election
754:US presidential election
715:self-fulfilling prophecy
471:Potential for inaccuracy
278:, led by wartime leader
159:United States Presidency
5583:Cross-correlation (XCF)
5191:Non-standard predictors
4625:LehmannâScheffĂ© theorem
4298:Adaptive clinical trial
3530:Emerson College Polling
3422:Multivariate statistics
3265:Nonprobability sampling
3121:The Pew Research Center
2933:(2 vol. Abc-clio, 2004)
2577:10.1111/1467-9477.12087
2559:Fredén, Annika (2017).
2316:. FiveThirtyEight.com.
2264:. FiveThirtyEight.com.
630:", otherwise known as "
596:plurality voting system
592:plurality voting system
313:Smithsonian Institution
49:and do not represent a
5979:Mathematics portal
5800:Engineering statistics
5708:NelsonâAalen estimator
5285:Analysis of covariance
5172:Ordinary least squares
5096:Pearson product-moment
4500:Statistical functional
4411:Empirical distribution
4244:Controlled experiments
3973:Frequency distribution
3751:Descriptive statistics
3539:European Social Survey
3521:Asian Barometer Survey
3412:Descriptive statistics
3297:Cross-sequential study
3250:Simple random sampling
3052:35.2 (2019): 227â237.
2966:Attitudes and Opinions
2872:Gauging Public Opinion
2860:, London, Sage (1995).
2238:Cite journal requires
1504:Jackson Lears (1995).
1154:state-controlled media
749:
692:cognitive interviewing
360:public through polls.
315:
6050:Sampling (statistics)
5895:Population statistics
5837:System identification
5571:Autocorrelation (ACF)
5499:Exponential smoothing
5413:Discriminant analysis
5408:Canonical correlation
5272:Partition of variance
5134:Regression validation
4978:(JonckheereâTerpstra)
4877:Likelihood-ratio test
4566:Frequentist inference
4478:Locationâscale family
4399:Sampling distribution
4364:Statistical inference
4331:Cross-sectional study
4318:Observational studies
4277:Randomized experiment
4106:Stem-and-leaf display
3908:Central limit theorem
3549:General Social Survey
3432:Statistical inference
3292:Cross-sectional study
3116:UCB Libraries GovPubs
3040:American psychologist
3028:39.3 (2020): 462â470.
2992:Traugott, Michael W.
2858:Sociology in Question
2494:– via Stanford.
2366:. Radio New Zealand.
1816:. NPR. 27 July 2016.
1447:10.4135/9781412963947
1240:Political forecasting
1071:Effect on politicians
1022:was believed to be a
902:1993 general election
747:
464:polling organizations
321:electronic clipboards
310:
272:1945 general election
111:human research survey
5818:Probabilistic design
5403:Principal components
5246:Exponential families
5198:Nonlinear regression
5177:General linear model
5139:Mixed effects models
5129:Errors and residuals
5106:Confounding variable
5008:Bayesian probability
4986:Van der Waerden test
4976:Ordered alternative
4741:Multiple comparisons
4620:RaoâBlackwellization
4583:Estimating equations
4539:Statistical distance
4257:Factorial experiment
3790:Arithmetic-Geometric
3470:Audience measurement
3407:Level of measurement
3240:Sampling for surveys
3080:10.1162/glep_a_00215
3035:6#2 (2014): 173â176.
2971:Robinson, Claude E.
2915:Gallup, Alec M. ed.
2469:10.1257/jep.31.2.211
1311:Journalism Quarterly
1143:The director of the
874:Electoral College).
610:Wording of questions
502:law of large numbers
123:confidence intervals
67:create a new article
59:improve this article
45:deal primarily with
5890:Official statistics
5813:Methods engineering
5494:Seasonal adjustment
5262:Poisson regressions
5182:Bayesian regression
5121:Regression analysis
5101:Partial correlation
5073:Regression analysis
4672:Prediction interval
4667:Likelihood interval
4657:Confidence interval
4649:Interval estimation
4610:Unbiased estimators
4428:Model specification
4308:Up-and-down designs
3996:Partial correlation
3952:Index of dispersion
3870:Interquartile range
3630:Pew Research Center
3599:World Values Survey
3342:Specification error
3260:Stratified sampling
3042:75.3 (2020): 301+.
2671:The Washington Post
1530:Jean M. Converse,"
1347:and the Wilmington
1215:Metallic Metals Act
1185:Electoral geography
1045:electoral threshold
1018:'s constituency of
728:The Literary Digest
444:Gallup Organization
250:Why die for Danzig?
240:In September 1938,
231:The Literary Digest
180:The Literary Digest
167:The Literary Digest
6035:Survey methodology
5910:Spatial statistics
5790:Medical statistics
5690:First hitting time
5644:Whittle likelihood
5295:Degrees of freedom
5290:Multivariate ANOVA
5223:Heteroscedasticity
5035:Bayesian estimator
5000:Bayesian inference
4849:KolmogorovâSmirnov
4734:Randomization test
4704:Testing hypotheses
4677:Tolerance interval
4588:Maximum likelihood
4483:Exponential family
4416:Density estimation
4376:Statistical theory
4336:Natural experiment
4282:Scientific control
4199:Survey methodology
3885:Standard deviation
3437:Statistical models
3337:Non-sampling error
3235:Statistical sample
3175:Collection methods
3018:Additional sources
3009:Young, Michael L.
2978:Robinson, Matthew
2894:Converse, Jean M.
2112:2016-05-18 at the
2094:2015-05-21 at the
1996:2016-08-13 at the
1977:2016-05-18 at the
1793:2019-07-12 at the
1704:2016-07-07 at the
1685:2016-06-04 at the
1419:– via Issuu.
1285:Types of democracy
1195:Everett Carll Ladd
1090:. You can help by
965:The Broken Compass
817:Conservative Party
750:
669:researchers, are:
643:Roper Organization
316:
276:Conservative Party
223:Archibald Crossley
215:participation bias
196:Franklin Roosevelt
117:from a particular
6012:
6011:
5950:
5949:
5946:
5945:
5885:National accounts
5855:Actuarial science
5847:Social statistics
5740:
5739:
5736:
5735:
5732:
5731:
5667:Survival function
5652:
5651:
5514:Granger causality
5355:Contingency table
5330:Survival analysis
5307:
5306:
5303:
5302:
5159:Linear regression
5054:
5053:
5050:
5049:
5025:Credible interval
4994:
4993:
4777:
4776:
4593:Method of moments
4462:Parametric family
4423:Statistical model
4353:
4352:
4349:
4348:
4267:Random assignment
4189:Statistical power
4123:
4122:
4119:
4118:
3968:Contingency table
3938:
3937:
3805:Generalized/power
3686:
3685:
3402:Contingency table
3377:Processing errors
3362:Non-response bias
3352:Measurement error
3332:Systematic errors
2985:Rogers, Lindsay.
2929:Geer, John Gray.
2870:Cantril, Hadley.
2529:Safire, William,
2516:978-1-84706-405-9
1944:978-1-5063-5242-8
1889:978-1-5063-5242-8
1850:978-1-5063-5242-8
1643:978-1-5063-5242-8
1534:(1987) pp: 114-24
1378:American Watchman
1230:Political analyst
1108:
1107:
1020:Enfield Southgate
839:spiral of silence
735:mobile telephones
645:, concerning the
617:leading questions
585:spiral of silence
553:non-response bias
284:Allied occupation
280:Winston Churchill
155:John Quincy Adams
95:
94:
87:
69:, as appropriate.
16:(Redirected from
6067:
6045:Social influence
6030:Types of polling
6000:
5999:
5988:
5987:
5977:
5976:
5962:
5961:
5865:Crime statistics
5759:
5758:
5746:
5745:
5663:
5662:
5629:Fourier analysis
5616:Frequency domain
5596:
5543:
5509:Structural break
5469:
5468:
5418:Cluster analysis
5365:Log-linear model
5338:
5337:
5313:
5312:
5254:
5228:Homoscedasticity
5084:
5083:
5060:
5059:
4979:
4971:
4963:
4962:(KruskalâWallis)
4947:
4932:
4887:Cross validation
4872:
4854:AndersonâDarling
4801:
4788:
4787:
4759:Likelihood-ratio
4751:Parametric tests
4729:Permutation test
4712:1- & 2-tails
4603:Minimum distance
4575:Point estimation
4571:
4570:
4522:Optimal decision
4473:
4372:
4371:
4359:
4358:
4341:Quasi-experiment
4291:Adaptive designs
4142:
4141:
4129:
4128:
4006:Rank correlation
3768:
3767:
3759:
3758:
3746:
3745:
3713:
3706:
3699:
3690:
3689:
3397:Categorical data
3151:
3144:
3137:
3128:
3127:
3091:
3000:James G. Webster
2950:Moore, David W.
2908:Gallup, George.
2901:Crespi, Irving.
2854:Bourdieu, Pierre
2846:Asher, Herbert:
2835:
2834:
2833:. 30 April 2023.
2821:
2815:
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2007:
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1747:
1746:
1744:
1743:
1728:
1722:
1717:Lynch, Scott M.
1715:
1709:
1696:
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1677:
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1629:
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1430:
1421:
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1418:
1417:
1397:
1391:
1390:
1306:
1280:Swing (politics)
1220:Open access poll
1103:
1100:
1082:
1075:
1016:Michael Portillo
1008:strategic voting
978:bandwagon effect
958:Effect on voters
628:loaded questions
547:Nonresponse bias
405:. The number of
90:
83:
79:
76:
70:
38:
37:
30:
21:
6075:
6074:
6070:
6069:
6068:
6066:
6065:
6064:
6015:
6014:
6013:
6008:
5971:
5942:
5904:
5841:
5827:quality control
5794:
5776:Clinical trials
5753:
5728:
5712:
5700:Hazard function
5694:
5648:
5610:
5594:
5557:
5553:BreuschâGodfrey
5541:
5518:
5458:
5433:Factor analysis
5379:
5360:Graphical model
5332:
5299:
5266:
5252:
5232:
5186:
5153:
5115:
5078:
5077:
5046:
4990:
4977:
4969:
4961:
4945:
4930:
4909:Rank statistics
4903:
4882:Model selection
4870:
4828:Goodness of fit
4822:
4799:
4773:
4745:
4698:
4643:
4632:Median unbiased
4560:
4471:
4404:Order statistic
4366:
4345:
4312:
4286:
4238:
4193:
4136:
4134:Data collection
4115:
4027:
3982:
3956:
3934:
3894:
3846:
3763:Continuous data
3753:
3740:
3722:
3717:
3687:
3682:
3639:
3603:
3564:LatinobarĂłmetro
3494:
3480:Market research
3458:
3383:
3357:Response errors
3303:
3277:Research design
3245:Random sampling
3211:
3195:Semi-structured
3167:Data collection
3161:
3159:survey research
3155:
3108:
3020:
2996:3rd ed. (2004).
2940:(1999) textbook
2882:Cantril, Hadley
2843:
2838:
2823:
2822:
2818:
2803:
2799:
2794:. 9 March 2022.
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2176:
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2150:
2146:
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2124:
2120:
2114:Wayback Machine
2105:
2101:
2096:Wayback Machine
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2083:
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2020:
2018:
2009:
2008:
2004:
1998:Wayback Machine
1989:
1985:
1979:Wayback Machine
1970:
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1950:
1949:
1945:
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1795:Wayback Machine
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1706:Wayback Machine
1697:
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1687:Wayback Machine
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1413:
1398:
1394:
1370:New York Herald
1307:
1303:
1299:
1294:
1170:
1141:
1124:
1104:
1098:
1095:
1088:needs expansion
1073:
960:
955:
922:
864:Harry S. Truman
852:
835:Shy Tory factor
801:
724:
710:
639:Double-Negative
632:trick questions
612:
565:
549:
507:margin of error
494:
486:Shy Tory Factor
473:
423:
414:Brushfire polls
407:brushfire polls
395:Brushfire polls
392:
390:Brushfire polls
366:
364:Benchmark polls
305:
270:victory in the
188:Calvin Coolidge
135:
91:
80:
74:
71:
56:
39:
35:
28:
23:
22:
18:Opinion polling
15:
12:
11:
5:
6073:
6063:
6062:
6057:
6052:
6047:
6042:
6040:Public opinion
6037:
6032:
6027:
6010:
6009:
6007:
6006:
5994:
5982:
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5955:
5952:
5951:
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5804:
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5796:
5795:
5793:
5792:
5787:
5782:
5773:
5771:Bioinformatics
5767:
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5755:
5754:
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5609:
5608:
5603:
5598:
5590:
5585:
5580:
5579:
5578:
5576:partial (PACF)
5567:
5565:
5559:
5558:
5556:
5555:
5550:
5545:
5537:
5532:
5526:
5524:
5523:Specific tests
5520:
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5506:
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5473:
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5459:
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5456:
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5453:
5452:
5437:
5436:
5435:
5425:
5423:Classification
5420:
5415:
5410:
5405:
5400:
5395:
5389:
5387:
5381:
5380:
5378:
5377:
5372:
5370:McNemar's test
5367:
5362:
5357:
5352:
5346:
5344:
5334:
5333:
5309:
5308:
5305:
5304:
5301:
5300:
5298:
5297:
5292:
5287:
5282:
5276:
5274:
5268:
5267:
5265:
5264:
5248:
5242:
5240:
5234:
5233:
5231:
5230:
5225:
5220:
5215:
5210:
5208:Semiparametric
5205:
5200:
5194:
5192:
5188:
5187:
5185:
5184:
5179:
5174:
5169:
5163:
5161:
5155:
5154:
5152:
5151:
5146:
5141:
5136:
5131:
5125:
5123:
5117:
5116:
5114:
5113:
5108:
5103:
5098:
5092:
5090:
5080:
5079:
5076:
5075:
5070:
5064:
5056:
5055:
5052:
5051:
5048:
5047:
5045:
5044:
5043:
5042:
5032:
5027:
5022:
5021:
5020:
5015:
5004:
5002:
4996:
4995:
4992:
4991:
4989:
4988:
4983:
4982:
4981:
4973:
4965:
4949:
4946:(MannâWhitney)
4941:
4940:
4939:
4926:
4925:
4924:
4913:
4911:
4905:
4904:
4902:
4901:
4900:
4899:
4894:
4889:
4879:
4874:
4871:(ShapiroâWilk)
4866:
4861:
4856:
4851:
4846:
4838:
4832:
4830:
4824:
4823:
4821:
4820:
4812:
4803:
4791:
4785:
4783:Specific tests
4779:
4778:
4775:
4774:
4772:
4771:
4766:
4761:
4755:
4753:
4747:
4746:
4744:
4743:
4738:
4737:
4736:
4726:
4725:
4724:
4714:
4708:
4706:
4700:
4699:
4697:
4696:
4695:
4694:
4689:
4679:
4674:
4669:
4664:
4659:
4653:
4651:
4645:
4644:
4642:
4641:
4636:
4635:
4634:
4629:
4628:
4627:
4622:
4607:
4606:
4605:
4600:
4595:
4590:
4579:
4577:
4568:
4562:
4561:
4559:
4558:
4553:
4548:
4547:
4546:
4536:
4531:
4530:
4529:
4519:
4518:
4517:
4512:
4507:
4497:
4492:
4487:
4486:
4485:
4480:
4475:
4459:
4458:
4457:
4452:
4447:
4437:
4436:
4435:
4430:
4420:
4419:
4418:
4408:
4407:
4406:
4396:
4391:
4386:
4380:
4378:
4368:
4367:
4355:
4354:
4351:
4350:
4347:
4346:
4344:
4343:
4338:
4333:
4328:
4322:
4320:
4314:
4313:
4311:
4310:
4305:
4300:
4294:
4292:
4288:
4287:
4285:
4284:
4279:
4274:
4269:
4264:
4259:
4254:
4248:
4246:
4240:
4239:
4237:
4236:
4234:Standard error
4231:
4226:
4221:
4220:
4219:
4214:
4203:
4201:
4195:
4194:
4192:
4191:
4186:
4181:
4176:
4171:
4166:
4164:Optimal design
4161:
4156:
4150:
4148:
4138:
4137:
4125:
4124:
4121:
4120:
4117:
4116:
4114:
4113:
4108:
4103:
4098:
4093:
4088:
4083:
4078:
4073:
4068:
4063:
4058:
4053:
4048:
4043:
4037:
4035:
4029:
4028:
4026:
4025:
4020:
4019:
4018:
4013:
4003:
3998:
3992:
3990:
3984:
3983:
3981:
3980:
3975:
3970:
3964:
3962:
3961:Summary tables
3958:
3957:
3955:
3954:
3948:
3946:
3940:
3939:
3936:
3935:
3933:
3932:
3931:
3930:
3925:
3920:
3910:
3904:
3902:
3896:
3895:
3893:
3892:
3887:
3882:
3877:
3872:
3867:
3862:
3856:
3854:
3848:
3847:
3845:
3844:
3839:
3834:
3833:
3832:
3827:
3822:
3817:
3812:
3807:
3802:
3797:
3795:Contraharmonic
3792:
3787:
3776:
3774:
3765:
3755:
3754:
3742:
3741:
3739:
3738:
3733:
3727:
3724:
3723:
3716:
3715:
3708:
3701:
3693:
3684:
3683:
3681:
3680:
3679:
3678:
3673:
3668:
3663:
3658:
3650:
3644:
3641:
3640:
3638:
3637:
3632:
3627:
3622:
3617:
3611:
3609:
3605:
3604:
3602:
3601:
3596:
3591:
3586:
3581:
3576:
3571:
3566:
3561:
3556:
3551:
3546:
3541:
3536:
3531:
3528:
3523:
3518:
3513:
3508:
3502:
3500:
3496:
3495:
3493:
3492:
3490:Public opinion
3487:
3482:
3477:
3472:
3466:
3464:
3460:
3459:
3457:
3456:
3455:
3454:
3449:
3444:
3434:
3429:
3424:
3419:
3414:
3409:
3404:
3399:
3393:
3391:
3385:
3384:
3382:
3381:
3380:
3379:
3374:
3372:Pseudo-opinion
3369:
3367:Coverage error
3364:
3359:
3354:
3349:
3344:
3334:
3329:
3324:
3322:Standard error
3319:
3317:Sampling error
3313:
3311:
3305:
3304:
3302:
3301:
3300:
3299:
3294:
3289:
3284:
3274:
3273:
3272:
3267:
3262:
3257:
3255:Quota sampling
3252:
3247:
3237:
3232:
3230:Sampling frame
3227:
3221:
3219:
3213:
3212:
3210:
3209:
3208:
3207:
3202:
3197:
3192:
3182:
3177:
3171:
3169:
3163:
3162:
3154:
3153:
3146:
3139:
3131:
3125:
3124:
3118:
3107:
3106:External links
3104:
3103:
3102:
3092:
3063:
3056:
3046:
3036:
3029:
3026:Health Affairs
3019:
3016:
3015:
3014:
3007:
2997:
2990:
2983:
2976:
2969:
2962:
2955:
2948:
2941:
2938:Public Opinion
2934:
2927:
2920:
2913:
2906:
2899:
2892:
2879:
2868:
2861:
2851:
2842:
2839:
2837:
2836:
2816:
2811:The New Yorker
2797:
2777:
2752:
2727:Representation
2717:
2687:
2654:
2625:(3): 185â186.
2605:
2582:
2571:(3): 247â264.
2551:
2535:
2522:
2515:
2497:
2462:(2): 211â236.
2439:
2425:. 2016-05-26.
2410:
2396:. 2019-06-10.
2381:
2354:
2339:
2330:
2304:
2278:
2260:(2008-11-02).
2249:
2240:|journal=
2196:
2170:
2144:
2118:
2099:
2081:
2072:
2063:
2054:
2045:
2036:
2027:
2002:
1983:
1964:
1943:
1925:
1895:
1888:
1870:
1849:
1831:
1799:
1780:
1748:
1723:
1710:
1691:
1672:
1663:
1642:
1624:
1599:
1590:
1577:
1549:
1536:
1523:
1516:
1496:
1467:
1455:
1422:
1392:
1366:Chicago Record
1317:(2): 361â365.
1300:
1298:
1295:
1293:
1292:
1287:
1282:
1277:
1272:
1267:
1262:
1257:
1252:
1247:
1242:
1237:
1232:
1227:
1222:
1217:
1212:
1207:
1202:
1197:
1192:
1187:
1182:
1177:
1171:
1169:
1166:
1140:
1137:
1130:However, most
1123:
1120:
1106:
1105:
1085:
1083:
1072:
1069:
982:William Safire
970:Peter Hitchens
959:
956:
954:
951:
928:Regarding the
921:
918:
906:National Party
851:
848:
843:
842:
831:
828:
800:
797:
796:
795:
788:
780:
779:
776:
773:
758:coverage error
723:
720:
709:
706:
705:
704:
701:
698:
695:
683:
682:
679:
611:
608:
581:Bradley effect
564:
561:
557:selection bias
548:
545:
498:sampling error
493:
490:
482:Bradley effect
472:
469:
460:George W. Bush
435:moving average
422:
421:Tracking polls
419:
403:tracking polls
399:benchmark poll
391:
388:
383:benchmark poll
378:benchmark poll
370:benchmark poll
365:
362:
304:
301:
288:denazification
264:United Kingdom
192:Herbert Hoover
184:Warren Harding
172:Woodrow Wilson
151:Andrew Jackson
134:
131:
115:public opinion
93:
92:
53:of the subject
51:worldwide view
42:
40:
33:
27:Type of survey
26:
9:
6:
4:
3:
2:
6072:
6061:
6058:
6056:
6053:
6051:
6048:
6046:
6043:
6041:
6038:
6036:
6033:
6031:
6028:
6026:
6023:
6022:
6020:
6005:
6004:
5995:
5993:
5992:
5983:
5981:
5980:
5975:
5969:
5967:
5966:
5957:
5956:
5953:
5939:
5936:
5934:
5933:Geostatistics
5931:
5929:
5926:
5924:
5921:
5919:
5916:
5915:
5913:
5911:
5907:
5901:
5900:Psychometrics
5898:
5896:
5893:
5891:
5888:
5886:
5883:
5881:
5878:
5876:
5873:
5871:
5868:
5866:
5863:
5861:
5858:
5856:
5853:
5852:
5850:
5848:
5844:
5838:
5835:
5833:
5830:
5828:
5824:
5821:
5819:
5816:
5814:
5811:
5809:
5806:
5805:
5803:
5801:
5797:
5791:
5788:
5786:
5783:
5781:
5777:
5774:
5772:
5769:
5768:
5766:
5764:
5763:Biostatistics
5760:
5756:
5752:
5747:
5743:
5725:
5724:Log-rank test
5722:
5721:
5719:
5715:
5709:
5706:
5705:
5703:
5701:
5697:
5691:
5688:
5686:
5683:
5681:
5678:
5676:
5673:
5672:
5670:
5668:
5664:
5661:
5659:
5655:
5645:
5642:
5640:
5637:
5635:
5632:
5630:
5627:
5625:
5622:
5621:
5619:
5617:
5613:
5607:
5604:
5602:
5599:
5597:
5595:(BoxâJenkins)
5591:
5589:
5586:
5584:
5581:
5577:
5574:
5573:
5572:
5569:
5568:
5566:
5564:
5560:
5554:
5551:
5549:
5548:DurbinâWatson
5546:
5544:
5538:
5536:
5533:
5531:
5530:DickeyâFuller
5528:
5527:
5525:
5521:
5515:
5512:
5510:
5507:
5505:
5504:Cointegration
5502:
5500:
5497:
5495:
5492:
5490:
5487:
5485:
5482:
5480:
5479:Decomposition
5477:
5476:
5474:
5470:
5467:
5465:
5461:
5451:
5448:
5447:
5446:
5443:
5442:
5441:
5438:
5434:
5431:
5430:
5429:
5426:
5424:
5421:
5419:
5416:
5414:
5411:
5409:
5406:
5404:
5401:
5399:
5396:
5394:
5391:
5390:
5388:
5386:
5382:
5376:
5373:
5371:
5368:
5366:
5363:
5361:
5358:
5356:
5353:
5351:
5350:Cohen's kappa
5348:
5347:
5345:
5343:
5339:
5335:
5331:
5327:
5323:
5319:
5314:
5310:
5296:
5293:
5291:
5288:
5286:
5283:
5281:
5278:
5277:
5275:
5273:
5269:
5263:
5259:
5255:
5249:
5247:
5244:
5243:
5241:
5239:
5235:
5229:
5226:
5224:
5221:
5219:
5216:
5214:
5211:
5209:
5206:
5204:
5203:Nonparametric
5201:
5199:
5196:
5195:
5193:
5189:
5183:
5180:
5178:
5175:
5173:
5170:
5168:
5165:
5164:
5162:
5160:
5156:
5150:
5147:
5145:
5142:
5140:
5137:
5135:
5132:
5130:
5127:
5126:
5124:
5122:
5118:
5112:
5109:
5107:
5104:
5102:
5099:
5097:
5094:
5093:
5091:
5089:
5085:
5081:
5074:
5071:
5069:
5066:
5065:
5061:
5057:
5041:
5038:
5037:
5036:
5033:
5031:
5028:
5026:
5023:
5019:
5016:
5014:
5011:
5010:
5009:
5006:
5005:
5003:
5001:
4997:
4987:
4984:
4980:
4974:
4972:
4966:
4964:
4958:
4957:
4956:
4953:
4952:Nonparametric
4950:
4948:
4942:
4938:
4935:
4934:
4933:
4927:
4923:
4922:Sample median
4920:
4919:
4918:
4915:
4914:
4912:
4910:
4906:
4898:
4895:
4893:
4890:
4888:
4885:
4884:
4883:
4880:
4878:
4875:
4873:
4867:
4865:
4862:
4860:
4857:
4855:
4852:
4850:
4847:
4845:
4843:
4839:
4837:
4834:
4833:
4831:
4829:
4825:
4819:
4817:
4813:
4811:
4809:
4804:
4802:
4797:
4793:
4792:
4789:
4786:
4784:
4780:
4770:
4767:
4765:
4762:
4760:
4757:
4756:
4754:
4752:
4748:
4742:
4739:
4735:
4732:
4731:
4730:
4727:
4723:
4720:
4719:
4718:
4715:
4713:
4710:
4709:
4707:
4705:
4701:
4693:
4690:
4688:
4685:
4684:
4683:
4680:
4678:
4675:
4673:
4670:
4668:
4665:
4663:
4660:
4658:
4655:
4654:
4652:
4650:
4646:
4640:
4637:
4633:
4630:
4626:
4623:
4621:
4618:
4617:
4616:
4613:
4612:
4611:
4608:
4604:
4601:
4599:
4596:
4594:
4591:
4589:
4586:
4585:
4584:
4581:
4580:
4578:
4576:
4572:
4569:
4567:
4563:
4557:
4554:
4552:
4549:
4545:
4542:
4541:
4540:
4537:
4535:
4532:
4528:
4527:loss function
4525:
4524:
4523:
4520:
4516:
4513:
4511:
4508:
4506:
4503:
4502:
4501:
4498:
4496:
4493:
4491:
4488:
4484:
4481:
4479:
4476:
4474:
4468:
4465:
4464:
4463:
4460:
4456:
4453:
4451:
4448:
4446:
4443:
4442:
4441:
4438:
4434:
4431:
4429:
4426:
4425:
4424:
4421:
4417:
4414:
4413:
4412:
4409:
4405:
4402:
4401:
4400:
4397:
4395:
4392:
4390:
4387:
4385:
4382:
4381:
4379:
4377:
4373:
4369:
4365:
4360:
4356:
4342:
4339:
4337:
4334:
4332:
4329:
4327:
4324:
4323:
4321:
4319:
4315:
4309:
4306:
4304:
4301:
4299:
4296:
4295:
4293:
4289:
4283:
4280:
4278:
4275:
4273:
4270:
4268:
4265:
4263:
4260:
4258:
4255:
4253:
4250:
4249:
4247:
4245:
4241:
4235:
4232:
4230:
4229:Questionnaire
4227:
4225:
4222:
4218:
4215:
4213:
4210:
4209:
4208:
4205:
4204:
4202:
4200:
4196:
4190:
4187:
4185:
4182:
4180:
4177:
4175:
4172:
4170:
4167:
4165:
4162:
4160:
4157:
4155:
4152:
4151:
4149:
4147:
4143:
4139:
4135:
4130:
4126:
4112:
4109:
4107:
4104:
4102:
4099:
4097:
4094:
4092:
4089:
4087:
4084:
4082:
4079:
4077:
4074:
4072:
4069:
4067:
4064:
4062:
4059:
4057:
4056:Control chart
4054:
4052:
4049:
4047:
4044:
4042:
4039:
4038:
4036:
4034:
4030:
4024:
4021:
4017:
4014:
4012:
4009:
4008:
4007:
4004:
4002:
3999:
3997:
3994:
3993:
3991:
3989:
3985:
3979:
3976:
3974:
3971:
3969:
3966:
3965:
3963:
3959:
3953:
3950:
3949:
3947:
3945:
3941:
3929:
3926:
3924:
3921:
3919:
3916:
3915:
3914:
3911:
3909:
3906:
3905:
3903:
3901:
3897:
3891:
3888:
3886:
3883:
3881:
3878:
3876:
3873:
3871:
3868:
3866:
3863:
3861:
3858:
3857:
3855:
3853:
3849:
3843:
3840:
3838:
3835:
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3534:Eurobarometer
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3511:Afrobarometer
3509:
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3499:Major surveys
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3427:Psychometrics
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3389:Data analysis
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3333:
3330:
3328:
3327:Sampling bias
3325:
3323:
3320:
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3315:
3314:
3312:
3310:
3309:Survey errors
3306:
3298:
3295:
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3180:Questionnaire
3178:
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3147:
3145:
3140:
3138:
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3119:
3117:
3113:
3110:
3109:
3101:
3097:
3093:
3089:
3085:
3081:
3077:
3074:(1): 79â106.
3073:
3069:
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2832:
2831:
2830:Novaya Gazeta
2826:
2820:
2812:
2808:
2801:
2793:
2792:
2791:openDemocracy
2787:
2781:
2766:
2762:
2756:
2748:
2744:
2740:
2736:
2732:
2728:
2721:
2708:on 2010-07-30
2707:
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2308:
2294:on 2013-01-31
2293:
2289:
2282:
2267:
2263:
2259:
2253:
2245:
2232:
2214:
2207:
2200:
2186:on 2008-10-11
2185:
2181:
2174:
2160:on 2008-11-21
2159:
2155:
2148:
2134:on 2008-10-30
2133:
2129:
2122:
2115:
2111:
2108:
2103:
2097:
2093:
2090:
2085:
2076:
2067:
2058:
2049:
2040:
2031:
2017:on 2012-10-25
2016:
2012:
2006:
1999:
1995:
1992:
1987:
1980:
1976:
1973:
1968:
1960:
1954:
1946:
1940:
1936:
1929:
1913:
1909:
1908:www.aapor.org
1905:
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1517:9780465090754
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1456:9781412918084
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1374:Pennsylvanian
1371:
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1362:Pennsylvanian
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1198:
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1191:
1190:Europe Elects
1188:
1186:
1183:
1181:
1180:Entrance poll
1178:
1176:
1173:
1172:
1165:
1163:
1159:
1158:Radio Liberty
1155:
1150:
1146:
1145:Levada Center
1136:
1133:
1128:
1119:
1117:
1113:
1102:
1093:
1089:
1086:This section
1084:
1081:
1077:
1076:
1068:
1065:
1064:media framing
1059:
1055:
1053:
1048:
1046:
1042:
1038:
1033:
1032:Stephen Twigg
1029:
1025:
1021:
1017:
1013:
1009:
1004:
1001:
996:
993:
992:George Gallup
989:
988:
983:
979:
974:
971:
967:
966:
950:
948:
943:
939:
935:
931:
926:
917:
915:
911:
907:
903:
898:
896:
892:
891:2015 election
888:
887:February 1974
884:
880:
875:
871:
869:
865:
862:would defeat
861:
857:
856:United States
847:
840:
836:
832:
829:
826:
822:
821:
820:
818:
814:
810:
806:
793:
789:
787:co-operation.
785:
784:
783:
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770:
769:
768:
765:
763:
759:
755:
746:
742:
738:
736:
731:
729:
722:Coverage bias
719:
716:
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696:
693:
689:
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680:
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668:
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620:
618:
607:
605:
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588:
586:
582:
578:
574:
570:
569:response bias
563:Response bias
560:
558:
554:
544:
542:
538:
534:
530:
525:
521:
519:
518:poll averages
514:
510:
508:
503:
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489:
487:
483:
479:
468:
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461:
457:
453:
449:
445:
439:
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432:
428:
427:tracking poll
418:
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396:
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291:
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269:
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261:
257:
255:
251:
247:
243:
242:Jean Stoetzel
238:
236:
232:
228:
224:
220:
216:
212:
211:George Gallup
208:
204:
199:
197:
194:in 1928, and
193:
189:
185:
181:
177:
173:
169:
168:
162:
160:
156:
152:
148:
145:prior to the
144:
140:
130:
128:
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120:
116:
112:
108:
104:
100:
89:
86:
78:
68:
64:
60:
54:
52:
48:
41:
32:
31:
19:
6001:
5989:
5970:
5963:
5875:Econometrics
5825: /
5808:Chemometrics
5785:Epidemiology
5778: /
5751:Applications
5593:ARIMA model
5540:Q-statistic
5489:Stationarity
5385:Multivariate
5328: /
5324: /
5322:Multivariate
5320: /
5260: /
5256: /
5030:Bayes factor
4929:Signed rank
4841:
4815:
4807:
4795:
4490:Completeness
4326:Cohort study
4224:Opinion poll
4223:
4159:Missing data
4146:Study design
4101:Scatter plot
4023:Scatter plot
4016:Spearman's Ï
3978:Grouped data
3608:Associations
3485:Opinion poll
3484:
3463:Applications
3287:Cohort study
3200:Unstructured
3115:
3095:
3071:
3067:
3059:
3049:
3039:
3032:
3025:
3010:
3003:
2993:
2986:
2979:
2972:
2965:
2958:
2951:
2944:
2937:
2930:
2923:
2916:
2909:
2902:
2895:
2885:
2871:
2864:
2857:
2847:
2828:
2819:
2810:
2800:
2789:
2780:
2768:. Retrieved
2764:
2755:
2733:(1): 15â22.
2730:
2726:
2720:
2710:, retrieved
2706:the original
2700:
2679:. Retrieved
2670:
2622:
2618:
2608:
2593:
2585:
2568:
2564:
2554:
2546:
2530:
2525:
2506:
2500:
2489:. Retrieved
2459:
2455:
2442:
2431:. Retrieved
2422:
2413:
2402:. Retrieved
2393:
2384:
2372:. Retrieved
2357:
2348:
2342:
2333:
2322:. Retrieved
2307:
2296:. Retrieved
2292:the original
2281:
2270:. Retrieved
2258:Silver, Nate
2252:
2231:cite journal
2220:. Retrieved
2199:
2188:. Retrieved
2184:the original
2173:
2162:. Retrieved
2158:the original
2147:
2136:. Retrieved
2132:the original
2121:
2102:
2084:
2075:
2066:
2057:
2048:
2039:
2030:
2019:. Retrieved
2015:the original
2005:
1986:
1967:
1934:
1928:
1918:27 September
1916:. Retrieved
1907:
1898:
1879:
1873:
1840:
1834:
1822:. Retrieved
1813:Planet Money
1811:
1802:
1783:
1772:. Retrieved
1763:. ABC News.
1751:
1740:. Retrieved
1736:
1726:
1718:
1713:
1694:
1675:
1666:
1633:
1627:
1616:. Retrieved
1602:
1593:
1569:. Retrieved
1544:
1539:
1531:
1526:
1506:
1499:
1488:. Retrieved
1460:, retrieved
1438:
1414:. Retrieved
1405:
1395:
1385:
1381:
1377:
1373:
1369:
1365:
1361:
1358:Raleigh Star
1357:
1353:
1348:
1344:
1342:
1314:
1310:
1304:
1142:
1129:
1125:
1109:
1096:
1092:adding to it
1087:
1060:
1056:
1051:
1049:
1005:
997:
985:
975:
963:
961:
947:Donald Trump
934:social media
927:
923:
899:
876:
872:
860:Thomas Dewey
853:
844:
813:Labour Party
802:
781:
766:
751:
739:
732:
727:
725:
711:
684:
676:psychometric
664:
660:
656:
636:
625:
621:
613:
600:
589:
566:
550:
540:
536:
532:
528:
526:
522:
515:
511:
495:
477:
474:
440:
431:rolling poll
430:
426:
424:
413:
412:
406:
402:
398:
394:
393:
382:
377:
375:
369:
367:
358:
350:social media
347:
326:
317:
292:
258:
239:
235:Louis Harris
230:
200:
179:
165:
163:
142:
138:
136:
126:
106:
102:
99:opinion poll
98:
96:
81:
72:
44:
6003:WikiProject
5918:Cartography
5880:Jurimetrics
5832:Reliability
5563:Time domain
5542:(LjungâBox)
5464:Time-series
5342:Categorical
5326:Time-series
5318:Categorical
5253:(Bernoulli)
5088:Correlation
5068:Correlation
4864:JarqueâBera
4836:Chi-squared
4598:M-estimator
4551:Asymptotics
4495:Sufficiency
4262:Interaction
4174:Replication
4154:Effect size
4111:Violin plot
4091:Radar chart
4071:Forest plot
4061:Correlogram
4011:Kendall's Ï
3544:Gallup Poll
3347:Frame error
3282:Panel study
3217:Methodology
2973:Straw Votes
2770:10 December
1610:. Cnn.com.
1290:Wiki survey
1112:Gerald Ford
690:conducting
604:decapitated
590:Use of the
254:Marcel DĂ©at
6019:Categories
5870:Demography
5588:ARMA model
5393:Regression
4970:(Friedman)
4931:(Wilcoxon)
4869:Normality
4859:Lilliefors
4806:Student's
4682:Resampling
4556:Robustness
4544:divergence
4534:Efficiency
4472:(monotone)
4467:Likelihood
4384:Population
4217:Stratified
4169:Population
3988:Dependence
3944:Count data
3875:Percentile
3852:Dispersion
3785:Arithmetic
3720:Statistics
3676:Statistics
3666:Psychology
3475:Demography
3452:Structural
3447:Log-linear
3190:Structured
2841:References
2712:2010-07-17
2681:2011-03-09
2491:2017-10-06
2433:2017-10-06
2404:2020-06-03
2324:2008-11-04
2298:2008-11-04
2272:2008-11-04
2222:2009-06-22
2190:2008-11-04
2164:2008-11-04
2138:2008-11-01
2021:2013-02-18
1774:2010-05-17
1742:2013-11-21
1618:2013-02-18
1571:2016-06-05
1490:2017-09-07
1462:2021-05-22
1416:2020-11-15
1275:Straw poll
1250:Referendum
1225:Psephology
1122:Regulation
1099:March 2011
1030:candidate
910:Jim Bolger
809:exit polls
458:candidate
456:Republican
450:candidate
448:Democratic
227:Elmo Roper
219:Republican
207:Alf Landon
149:, showing
6055:Pollsters
5251:Logistic
5018:posterior
4944:Rank sum
4692:Jackknife
4687:Bootstrap
4505:Bootstrap
4440:Parameter
4389:Statistic
4184:Statistic
4096:Run chart
4081:Pie chart
4076:Histogram
4066:Fan chart
4041:Bar chart
3923:L-moments
3810:Geometric
3671:Sociology
3652:Projects
3442:Graphical
3185:Interview
2747:153407445
2649:0954-0962
1953:cite book
1859:cite book
1652:cite book
1360:, or the
1339:144801377
1331:0022-5533
1297:Footnotes
1245:Push poll
1200:Exit poll
1024:safe seat
953:Influence
938:fake news
889:. In the
647:Holocaust
201:Then, in
198:in 1932.
190:in 1924,
186:in 1920,
176:postcards
164:In 1916,
63:talk page
5965:Category
5658:Survival
5535:Johansen
5258:Binomial
5213:Isotonic
4800:(normal)
4445:location
4252:Blocking
4207:Sampling
4086:QâQ plot
4051:Box plot
4033:Graphics
3928:Skewness
3918:Kurtosis
3890:Variance
3820:Heronian
3815:Harmonic
3661:Politics
3656:Business
3648:Category
3098:(2014).
3088:55878738
2675:Archived
2482:Archived
2478:32730475
2427:Archived
2398:Archived
2368:Archived
2318:Archived
2266:Archived
2213:Archived
2110:Archived
2092:Archived
1994:Archived
1975:Archived
1912:Archived
1818:Archived
1791:Archived
1765:Archived
1702:Archived
1683:Archived
1612:Archived
1565:Archived
1484:Archived
1410:Archived
1384:and the
1382:Watchman
1356:and the
1168:See also
1000:underdog
942:Facebook
850:Failures
667:attitude
658:survey.
342:Internet
296:New Deal
268:Labour's
153:leading
141:and the
127:pollster
75:May 2023
57:You may
6025:Polling
5991:Commons
5938:Kriging
5823:Process
5780:studies
5639:Wavelet
5472:General
4639:Plug-in
4433:L space
4212:Cluster
3913:Moments
3731:Outline
3157:Social
3013:(1992).
2989:(1949).
2982:(2002).
2975:(1932).
2968:(2004).
2961:(1989).
2954:(1995).
2912:(1939).
2905:(1989).
2874:(1944)
2867:(1988).
2600:243â278
2549:(2000).
1824:30 June
1721:(2007).
1149:Russian
1041:wasting
914:Waitaki
866:in the
452:Al Gore
354:Twitter
133:History
5860:Census
5450:Normal
5398:Manova
5218:Robust
4968:2-way
4960:1-way
4798:-test
4469:
4046:Biplot
3837:Median
3830:Lehmer
3772:Center
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