Storm Prediction Center

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SUMMARY...Isolated severe hail/gusts are the main severe risks in the short term (next 1-3 hours). The tornado threat may increase later this afternoon dependent on quasi-discrete supercells developing ahead of the cold front. DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a relatively weak squall line over central AR with the mean flow largely parallel to the gust front of the squall line. Severe weather is not expected in the short term associated with this part of the convective line. Farther south, strengthening updrafts on or immediately behind the surface wind shift have led to the development of strong/severe storms developing from northeast TX into far southwestern AR. Isolated large hail/severe gusts are the primary hazards with this activity over the next 1-3 hours. A very stout cap was noted in the 12z SHV raob and the 18z SHV raob exhibited much reduced convective inhibition compared to this morning in the 850-650 mb layer. Although strengthening and veering flow with height in the lowest 1 km was noted --resulting in some enlargement to the hodograph-- considerable backing of flow in the 750-500 mb layer would tend to be suboptimal for tornadic low-level mesocyclones. Nonetheless, gradual moistening in the low levels is expected. It appears the risk for strong tornadoes may be less than previously thought---although some risk remains. ..Smith.. 04/26/2017

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Effective this Wednesday morning and afternoon from 1005 AM until 500 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Widespread large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Widespread damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Severe storms will move across the watch area through this afternoon, posing a risk of locally damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes. An isolated strong tornado or two is also possible. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles north of Walnut Ridge AR to 35 miles southeast of Longview TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. &&

1168:(WPC). MCDs generally precede the issuance of a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch, by one to three hours when possible. Mesoscale discussions are designed to give local forecasters an update on a region where a severe weather threat is emerging and an indication of whether a watch is likely and details thereof, as well as situations of isolated severe weather when watches are not necessary. MCDs contain meteorological information on what is happening and what is expected to occur in the next few hours, and forecast reasoning in regard to weather watches. Mesoscale discussions are often issued to update information on watches already in effect, and sometimes when one is to be canceled. Mesoscale discussions are occasionally used as advance notice of a categorical upgrade of a scheduled convective outlook. 508: 519: 1092:

day until 1200Z the following day), 1300Z and 1630Z (the "morning updates," valid until 1200Z the following day), 2000Z (the "afternoon update," valid until 1200Z the following day), and the 0100Z (the "evening update," valid until 1200Z the following day), provides a textual forecast, map of categories and probabilities, and chart of probabilities. Prior to January 28, 2020, the Day 1 was currently the only outlook to issue specific probabilities for tornadoes, hail or wind. It is the most descriptive and highest accuracy outlook, and typically has the highest probability levels.

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delineated in this forecast that have least a 15% or 30% chance of severe weather in the Day 4–8 period (equivalent to a slight risk and an enhanced risk, respectively); as forecaster confidence is not fully resolute on how severe weather will evolve more than three days out, the Day 4–8 outlook only outlines the areas in which severe thunderstorms are forecast to occur during the period at the 15% and 30% likelihood, and does not utilize other categorical risk areas or outline where general (non-severe) thunderstorm activity will occur.

669: 1104:). Probabilities for tornadoes, hail and wind applying to the Day 1 Convective Outlook were incorporated into the Day 2 Convective Outlook on January 28, 2020, citing research to SPC operations and improvements in numerical forecast guidance that have increased forecaster confidence in risk estimation for those hazards in that timeframe. The individual hazard probabilistic forecasts replaced the existing "total severe" probability graph for general severe convective storms that had been used for the Day 2 outlook beforehand. 319:, and issues outline and status updates for SPC-issued severe thunderstorm and tornado watches that include areas served by the Norman office). In 1998, the center began issuing the National Fire Weather Outlook to provide forecasts for areas potentially susceptible to the development and spread of wildfires based on certain meteorological factors. The Day 3 Convective Outlook (which is similar in format to the Day 2 forecast) was first issued on an experimental basis in 2000, and was made an official product in 2001. 40: 1438:

weather conditions, severity of the predicted threat, and local climatology of a forecast region. "See Text" is a map label used for outlining areas where fire potential is great enough to pose a limited threat, but not enough to warrant a critical area, similar to areas using the same notation title that were formerly outlined in convective outlooks. Critical Fire Weather Areas for Wind and Relative Humidity are typically issued when strong winds ( > 20 mph (32 km/h); 15 mph (24 km/h) for

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three used originally. The new categories that were added are a "marginal risk" (replacing the "SEE TEXT" contours, see below) and an "enhanced risk". The latter is used to delineate areas where severe weather will occur that would fall under the previous probability criteria of an upper-end slight risk, but do not warrant the issuance of a moderate risk. In order from least to greatest threat, these categories are ranked as: marginal, slight, enhanced, moderate, and high.

1239:" (PDS), is subjectively issued. It is occasionally issued with tornado watches, normally for the potential of major tornado outbreaks, especially those with a significant threat of multiple tornadoes capable of producing F4/EF4 and F5/EF5 damage and/or staying on the ground for long-duration – sometimes uninterrupted – paths. A PDS severe thunderstorm watch is very rare and is typically reserved for derecho events impacting densely populated areas. 299:" watch, which indicates the imminent threat of a major severe weather event over the watch's timespan. In 1986, the NSSFC introduced two new forecast products: the Day 2 Convective Outlook (which include probabilistic forecasts for outlined areas of thunderstorm risk for the following day) and the Mesoscale Discussion (a short-term forecast outlining specific areas under threat for severe thunderstorm development). 1263:(s) of the areas under the watch), associated potential threats, a meteorological synopsis of atmospheric conditions favorable for severe thunderstorm development, forecasted aviation conditions, and a pre-determined message informing the public of the meaning behind the watch and to be vigilant of any warnings or weather statements that may be issued by their local National Weather Service office. 2639: 1975: 689:

isolated tornadoes (often of shorter duration and varying weak to moderate intensity, depending on the available wind shear and other sufficient atmospheric parameters). During the peak severe weather season, most days will have a slight risk somewhere in the United States. Isolated significant severe events are possible in some circumstances, but are generally not widespread.

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of varying intensities. These days are quite frequent in the peak severe weather season and occur occasionally at other times of year. This risk category replaced the upper end of "slight" on October 22, 2014, although a few situations that previously warranted a moderate risk were reclassified as enhanced (i.e. 45% wind or 15% tornado with no significant area).

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are expected to occur where dried fuels exist. Extremely Critical Fire Weather Areas for Wind and Relative Humidity are issued when very strong winds and very low humidity are expected to occur with very dry fuels. Extremely Critical areas are issued relatively rarely, similar to the very low frequency of high risk areas in convective outlooks (see

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have continued to use the original three-category system to outline forecasted severe weather risks (though stations that do this may utilize in-house severe weather outlooks that vary to some degree from the SPC convective outlooks), while certain others that have switched to the current system have chosen not to outline marginal risk areas.

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isolated severe weather when watches are not necessary. Watches are issued when forecasters are confident that severe weather will occur, and usually precede the onset of severe weather by one hour, although this sometimes varies depending on certain atmospheric conditions that may inhibit or accelerate convective development.

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SPC mesoscale discussions for a high-impact and high-confidence strong tornadoes (EF2+) or winds greater than 100 miles per hour (160 km/h) are called meso-gamma mesoscale discussions. Meso-gamma mesoscale discussions are rarely issued by the SPC. As of May 2024, the Storm Prediction Center

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Local forecast offices of the National Weather Service, radio and television stations, and emergency planners often use the forecasts to gauge the potential severe weather threats to their areas. Even after the marginal and enhanced risk categories were added in October 2014, some television stations

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day indicates storms of only limited organization, longevity, coverage and/or intensity, typically isolated severe or near-severe storms with limited wind damage, large hail and perhaps a tornado. Wind gusts of at least 60 miles per hour (97 km/h) and hailstones of around 1 inch (2.5 cm) in

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Day 3 outlooks refer to the day after tomorrow, and include the same products (categorical outline, text description, and probability graph) as the Day 2 outlook. As of June 2012, the SPC forecasts general thunderstorm risk areas. Higher probability forecasts are less and less likely as the forecast

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The categories at right refer to the risk levels for the specific severe weather event occurring within 25 miles (40 km) of any point in the delineated region, as described in the previous section. The Day 1 Convective Outlook, issued five times per day at 0600Z (valid from 1200Z of the current

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or widespread straight-line wind events, are sometimes also possible on moderate risk days, but with greater uncertainty. Moderate risk days are not terribly uncommon, and typically occur several times a month during the peak of the severe weather season, and occasionally at other times of the year.

708:), with significant severe weather often more likely. Numerous tornadoes (some of which may be strong and potentially long-track), more widespread or severe wind damage and/or very large/destructive hail (up to or exceeding 2 inches (5.1 cm) in diameter) could occur. Major events, such as large 696:

day indicates that there is a greater threat for severe weather than that which would be indicated by a slight risk, but conditions are not adequate for the development of widespread significant severe weather to necessitate a moderate category. Severe storms are expected to be more concentrated and

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Public severe weather outlooks (PWO) are issued when a significant or widespread outbreak is expected, especially for tornadoes. From November to March, it can also be issued for any threat of significant tornadoes in the nighttime hours, noting the lower awareness and greater danger of tornadoes at

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The Storm Prediction Center issues convective outlooks (AC), consisting of categorical and probabilistic forecasts describing the general threat of severe convective storms over the contiguous United States for the next six to 192 hours (Day 1 through Day 8). These outlooks are labeled and issued by

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exist, similar to a slight, enhanced, or moderate risk of severe weather. Critical Fire Weather Areas for Dry Thunderstorms are typically issued when widespread or numerous thunderstorms producing rainfall of little accumulation to provide sufficient ground wetting ( < 0.10 inches (2.5 mm))

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There are four types of Fire Weather Outlook areas: "See Text", a "Critical Fire Weather Area for Wind and Relative Humidity", an "Extremely Critical Fire Weather Area for Wind and Relative Humidity", and a "Critical Fire Weather Area for Dry Thunderstorms". The outlook type depends on the forecast

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day typically will indicate that the threat exists for scattered severe weather, including scattered wind damage (produced by straight-line sustained winds and/or gusts of 60 to 70 mph), scattered severe hail (varying in size from 0.25 inches (0.64 cm) to 1.75 inches (4.4 cm)) and/or

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There is a three-stage process in which the area, time period, and details of a severe weather forecast are refined from a broad-scale forecast of potential hazards to a more specific and detailed forecast of what hazards are expected, and where and in what time frame they are expected to occur. If

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The Storm Prediction Center is responsible for forecasting the risk of severe weather caused by severe thunderstorms, specifically those producing tornadoes, hail of one inch (2.5 cm) in diameter or larger, and/or winds of 58 miles per hour (93 km/h) or greater. The agency also forecasts

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and is updated at 1700Z, and is valid from 1200Z to 1200Z the following day. The Day 2 outlook is issued at 1000Z and is updated at 2000Z for the forecast period of 1200Z to 1200Z the following day. The Day 3–8 outlook is issued at 2200Z, and is valid from 1200Z two days after the current calendar

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are ideally the next step after watches, watches cover a threat of organized severe thunderstorms over a larger area and may not always precede a warning; watch "busts" do sometimes occur should thunderstorm activity not occur at all or that which does develop never reaches the originally forecast

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Day 2 outlooks, issued twice daily at 0600Z and 1730Z, refer to predicted risks of convective weather for the following day (1200Z to 1200Z of the next calendar day; for example, a Day 2 outlook issued on April 12, 2100, would be valid from 1200Z on April 13, 2100, through 1200Z on April 14, 2100)

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depending on the area it covers. Jurisdictions outlined by the county-based watch product as being included in the watch area may differ from the actual watch box; as such, certain counties, parishes or boroughs not covered by the fringes of the watch box may actually be included in the watch and

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The process of issuing a convective watch begins with a conference call from SPC to local NWS offices. If after collaboration a watch is deemed necessary, the Storm Prediction Center will issue a watch approximation product which is followed by the local NWS office issuing a specific county-based

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Watches (WWs) issued by the SPC are generally less than 20,000–50,000 square miles (52,000–129,000 km) in area and are normally preceded by a mesoscale discussion. Watches are intended to be issued preceding the arrival of severe weather by one to six hours. They indicate that conditions are

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The Storm Prediction Center began asking for public comment on proposed categorical additions to the Day 1-3 Convective Outlooks on April 21, 2014, for a two-month period. The Storm Prediction Center broadened this system beginning on October 22, 2014 by adding two new risk categories to the

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The agency is also responsible for forecasting fire weather (indicating conditions that are favorable for wildfires) in the contiguous U.S., issuing fire weather outlooks for Days 1, 2, and 3–8, which detail areas with various levels of risk for fire conditions (such as fire levels and fire

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are issued to provide information on certain individual regions where severe weather is becoming a threat and states whether a watch is likely and details thereof, particularly concerning conditions conducive for the development of severe thunderstorms in the short term, as well as situations of

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 162 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1005 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Much of Arkansas Northwest Louisiana Northeast Texas *

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Mesoscale Discussion 0562 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017 Areas affected...central AR into northwestern LA and northeast TX Concerning...Tornado Watch 162... Valid 261805Z - 261930Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 162 continues.

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event. On these days, the potential exists for extremely severe and life-threatening weather. This includes widespread strong or violent tornadoes which may be on the ground for a half-hour or longer, or very destructive straight-line winds. Hail cannot verify or produce a high risk on its own,

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The Storm Prediction Center employs a total of 43 personnel, including five lead forecasters, ten mesoscale/outlook forecasters, and seven assistant mesoscale forecasters. Many SPC forecasters and support staff are heavily involved in scientific research into severe and hazardous weather. This

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The Storm Prediction Center also is responsible for issuing fire weather outlooks (FWD) for the continental United States. These outlooks are a guidance product for local, state and federal government agencies, including local National Weather Service offices, in forecasting the potential for

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organized severe thunderstorms are expected but conditions are not thought to be especially favorable for tornadoes (although they can occur in such areas where one is in effect, and some severe thunderstorm watch statements issued by the SPC may note a threat of isolated tornadic activity if

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Day 4–8 outlooks are the longest-term official SPC Forecast Product, and often change significantly from day to day. This extended forecast for severe weather was an experimental product until March 22, 2007, when the Storm Prediction Center incorporated it as an official product. Areas are

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Generally, the convective outlook boundaries or lines – general thunderstorms (light green), marginal (dark green), slight (yellow), enhanced (orange), moderate (red) and high (purple) – will be continued as an arrow or line not filled with color if the risk area enters another country

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In 2006, the Storm Prediction Center, National Severe Storms Laboratory and National Weather Service Norman Forecast Office moved their respective operations into the newly constructed National Weather Center, near Westheimer Airport. Since the agency's relocation to Norman, the

1112:). Day 3 high risks are never issued and the operational standards do not allow for such. This is most likely because it would require both a very high degree of certainty (60%) for an event which was still at least 48 hours away and a reasonable level of confidence that said 223:

as a part of this process. Convective outlooks are issued for the following eight days (issued separately for Day 1, Day 2, Day 3, and Days 4–8), and detail the risk of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes during the given forecast period, although tornado,

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watch product. The latter product is responsible for triggering public alert messages via television, radio stations and NOAA Weather Radio. The watch approximation product outlines specific regions covered by the watch (including the approximate outlined area in

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although such a day usually involves a threat for widespread very large and damaging hail as well. Many of the most prolific severe weather days were high risk days. Such days are rare; a high risk is typically issued (at the most) only a few times each year (see

2449:"Yes that's a meso-gamma mcd. They are primarily designed to deliver targeted mesoanalysis information to warning forecasters for high impact severe weather phenomenon. Ie. strong long-track tornadoes and in some cases extreme damaging winds greater than 100 mph" 547:, damaging winds, and tornadoes), while the bottom map specifically shows the risk percentage of a tornado forming within 25 miles (40 km) of any point within the enclosed area. The hatched area on the bottom map indicates a 10% or greater risk of an 681:

diameter are common storm threats within a marginal risk; depending on the sufficient wind shear, a tornado – usually of weak (EF0 to EF1) intensity and short duration – may be possible. This category replaced the "SEE TEXT" category on October 22, 2014.

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In April 2011, the SPC introduced a new graphical format for its categorical and probability outlooks, which included the shading of risk areas (with the colors corresponding to each category, as mentioned above, being changed as well) and

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involves conducting applied research and writing technical papers, developing training materials, giving seminars and other presentations locally and nationwide, attending scientific conferences, and participating in weather experiments.

336:) or emergency (such as an approaching strong tornadic circulation or tornado on the ground) affecting the Norman campus; on April 1, 2009, the SPC reassigned responsibilities for issuing the center's products in such situations to the 302:

In October 1995, the National Severe Storms Forecast Center relocated its operations to Norman, Oklahoma, and was rechristened the Storm Prediction Center. At that time, the guidance center was housed at Max Westheimer Airport (now the

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would assume control of issuing the Storm Prediction Center's severe weather products in the event that the SPC is no longer able to issue them in the event of an outage (such as a computer system failure or building-wide

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In 1968, the National Severe Storms Forecast Center began issuing status reports on weather watches; the agency then made its first computerized data transmission in 1971. On April 2, 1982, the agency issued the first

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vice versa. Watches can be expanded, contracted (by removing jurisdictions where SPC and NWS forecasters no longer consider there to be a viable threat of severe weather, in which case, the watch box may take on a

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period increases due to lessening forecast ability farther in advance. Day 3 moderate risks are quite rare; these have been issued only twenty times since the product became operational (most recently for

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Watch outline products provide a visual map depiction of the issued watch; the SPC typically delineates watches within this product in the form of "boxes," which technically are represented as either

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and include only a categorical outline, textual description, and a map of categories and probabilities. Day 2 moderate risks are fairly uncommon, and a Day 2 high risk has only been issued twice (for

2706: 1148:) or across waters beyond the United States coastline. This indicates that the risk for severe weather is also valid in that general area of the other side of the border or oceanic boundary. 1901: 315:(the latter of which, in addition to disseminating forecasts, oversees the issuance of weather warnings and advisories for the western two-thirds of Oklahoma and western portions of 1198: 1467:– the Weather Forecast Office located adjacent to the Storm Prediction Center within the National Weather Center, which serves central and western Oklahoma and northwestern Texas 1791: 2207: 2699: 1223:

favorable for thunderstorms capable of producing various modes of severe weather, including large hail, damaging straight-line winds and/or tornadoes. In the case of

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e: red shaded area – previously rendered as a red line – indicating a moderate risk of severe weather); and "HIGH" (pink shaded area – previously a rendered as a

1452: 1409: 2824: 2692: 362:, two officers (Fawbush and Miller) successfully predict another one five days later on 25 March at same base, given responsibility for AF tornado predictions. 17: 1851: 1125: 1251:

level of severity. Warnings are issued by local National Weather Service offices, not the Storm Prediction Center, which is a national guidance center.

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In situations where a forecaster expects a significant threat of extremely severe and life-threatening weather, a watch with special enhanced wording, "

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day indicates a considerable likelihood of significant to extreme severe weather, generally a major tornado outbreak or (much less often) an extreme

1507: 177: 2243: 726: 536: 2715: 621:" because of their representation on outlook maps) refer to a threat of increased storm intensity that is of "significant severe" levels (F2/ 169: 136: 2456: 287:

summaries in three-hour intervals in 1960; with the increased duties of compiling and disseminating radar summaries, this unit became the

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and wind details are only available for Days 1 and 2. Day 3, as well as 4–8 use a probabilistic scale, determining the probability for a

729:). High risk areas are usually surrounded by a larger moderate risk area, where uncertainty is greater or the threat is somewhat lower. 1470: 652:

In 2013, the SPC incorporated a small table under the Convective Outlook's risk category map that indicates the total coverage area by

2819: 1464: 1109: 1101: 573:: light green shaded area – rendered as a brown line prior to April 2011 – indicating a risk for general thunderstorms), "MRGL" (for 312: 304: 2834: 2221: 1097: 90: 2187: 649:

overlays. The new shaded maps also incorporated a revised color palette for the shaded probability categories in each outlook.

532: 1923:"About the Storm Prediction Center: The Severe Storms Forecast Process: Outlook to Mesoscale Discussion to Watch to Warning" 2108:"Glossary — National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service: Public Severe Weather Outlook" 424:

1976: Techniques Development Unit (TDU) established in April to provide software development and evaluate forecast methods.

181: 2361: 597:: yellow shaded area – previously rendered as a green line – indicating a slight risk of severe weather); "ENH" (for 337: 308: 625:

or stronger tornado, 2 inches (5.1 cm) or larger hail, or 75 miles per hour (121 km/h) winds or greater).

421:) formed, and entire WB office (SELS and DFO) in Kansas City renamed National Severe Storms Forecast Center (NSSFC). 1236: 638: 601:

anced: orange shaded area, which replaced the upper end of the SLGT category on October 22, 2014); "MDT" (for

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representation in map-based watch products) or canceled before their set time of expiration by local NWS offices.

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1954: SELS relocates from the WBAN Center in Washington to the WB's District Forecast Office (DFO) in downtown

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Watches are not "warnings", where there is an immediate severe weather threat to life and property. Although

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Slight and enhanced risk areas typically surround areas under a moderate risk, where the threat is lower.

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day indicates that more widespread and/or more dangerous severe weather is possible (sometimes with major

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Greg Carbin; Roger Edwards; Greg Grosshans; David Imy; Mike Kay; Jay Liang; Joe Schaefer; Rich Thompson.

1243: 1429:. The outlooks issued are for Day 1, Day 2, and Days 3–8. The Day 1 product is issued at 4:00 a.m. 283:. SELS began issuing convective outlooks for predicted thunderstorm activity in 1955, and began issuing 2334: 2279: 1902:"A conversation with Oklahoma meteorologist Liz Leitman, the first woman to issue a thunderstorm watch" 1085: 656:, the total estimated population affected and major cities included within a severe weather risk area. 448:

2023: Meteorologist Liz Leitman becomes the first woman at the SPC to issue a convective weather watch.

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1964: Remainder of NSSP moves to Norman and is reorganized as National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL).

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An example of an Enhanced Risk day overlaid with the radar with Severe Thunderstorm Watches in effect.

2814: 2761: 2741: 2731: 2254: 2192: 1224: 1217: 1165: 646: 479: 452: 1623: 2164: 1533: 585:: darker green shaded area, indicating a very low but present risk of severe weather); "SLGT" (for 376:

in March as a trial unit, made permanent on 21 May as the Weather Bureau Severe Weather Unit (SWU).

355: 208: 173: 2422:"They are called meso-gamma mcds and we do them for high impact high confidence violent tornadoes" 2746: 2726: 2522:"Glossary — National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service: PDS" 2448: 2421: 2169: 1601: 642: 188: 2684: 2609: 2490: 2394: 2018: 1228:

conditions are of modest favorability for storm rotation capable of inducing them), whereas for

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Stephen F. Corfidi (August 1999). "The Birth and Early Years of the Storm Prediction Center".

1877:"Storm Prediction Center meteorologist became first woman to issue Severe Thunderstorm Watch" 1742: 622: 548: 431: 395: 359: 328: 276: 617:

line – indicating a high risk of severe weather). Significant severe areas (referred to as "

518: 1757: 1610: 341: 2551: 1681: 1408:

Day 1 Fire Outlook map issued by the Storm Prediction Center on April 10, 2019, depicting

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Convective outlooks are issued by the Storm Prediction Center in Zulu time (also known as

8: 268: 200: 2159: 1876: 1761: 1614: 411:'s Weather Radar Laboratory to work with a new Weather Surveillance Radar-1957 (WSR-57). 1792:"Stormcaller Liz Leitman makes history as first female to issue severe weather warning" 475: 324: 2521: 2056: 1232:

conditions are thought to be favorable for severe thunderstorms to produce tornadoes.

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warranted, forecasts will also increase in severity through this three-stage process.

1773: 1636: 1443: 1430: 471: 165: 2253:. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. November 14, 2019. Archived from 451:

2024: On February 15, 2024, Leitman became the first woman meteorologist to issue a

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1952: WB establishes its own Weather Bureau-Army-Navy (WBAN) Analysis Center in

39: 1852:"STEM Spotlight: Storm Prediction Center meteorologist makes history for women" 1121: 540: 401:

1955: National Severe Storms Project (NSSP) formed SELS' as research component.

229: 2578:"Storm Prediction Center Day 3–8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Apr 21, 2013" 2133: 1699: 441:

2006: SPC moves a few miles south to the National Weather Center (NWC) on the

2808: 2790: 2777: 1777: 1640: 1499: 1475: 1275: 1229: 1213: 1161: 483: 284: 2607: 2488: 2392: 2134:"Experimental SPC Day 1, 2, 3 Convective Outlook Change Public Comment Page" 2016: 1984: 1922: 1727: 1653: 1256: 467: 333: 2679: 2643: 1979: 1880: 653: 551:

or stronger tornado forming within 25 miles (40 km) of a point.

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Chris Novy; Roger Edwards; David Imy; Stephen Goss (November 13, 2008).

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Chris Novy; Roger Edwards; David Imy; Stephen Goss (November 13, 2008).

2017:

Chris Novy; Roger Edwards; David Imy; Stephen Goss (November 13, 2008).

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Chris Novy; Roger Edwards; David Imy; Stephen Goss (March 25, 2010).

2212: 1280: 1271: 1260: 705: 404:

1958: SELS assumes authority for all public severe weather forecasts.

199:, the Storm Prediction Center is tasked with forecasting the risk of 2063:. Norman, Oklahoma: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 1426: 1319:

Day 3–8 probability to categorical fire weather outlook conversion

1164:(mesoscale precipitation discussions ); MPDs are now issued by the 618: 280: 196: 104: 2491:"Storm Prediction Center and its Products: Severe Weather Watches" 2244:"Product Description Document (PDD): SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook" 2714: 2610:"Storm Prediction Center and its Products: Fire Weather Outlooks" 2395:"Storm Prediction Center and its Products: Mesoscale Discussions" 1948: 1439: 721: 204: 2528:. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. June 25, 2009 2114:. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. June 25, 2009 2088:. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. June 12, 2013 1826:"In a First, a Women Issues a Thunderstorm Watch, Officials Say" 1807:"In a First, a Woman Issues a Thunderstorm Watch, Officials Say" 1199:

List of Storm Prediction Center meso-gamma mesoscale discussions

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Grams, Jeremy; Bunting, Bill; Weiss, Steve (October 22, 2014).

2019:"Storm Prediction Center and its Products: Convective Outlooks" 1655: 1267: 1145: 1141: 742:

Day 1 and Day 2 probability to categorical outlook conversion

2100: 1417: 427:

1995: NSSFC renamed Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in October.

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1951: Severe Weather Warning Center (SWWC) established as an

1682:"Operational weather squadron picks up new responsibilities" 232:

event in percentage categories (15%/yellow and 30%/orange).

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10.1175/1520-0434(1999)014<0507:TBAEYO>2.0.CO;2

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10.1175/1520-0434(1999)014<0507:TBAEYO>2.0.CO;2

544: 418: 225: 147: 2280:

Storm Prediction Center Day 1, 2 and 3 Convective Outlooks

1743:"The Birth and Early Years of the Storm Prediction Center" 1656:"Storm Prediction Center Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)" 1528: 1434:

date to 1200Z seven days after the current calendar date.

2362:"Mar 20, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook" 291:(NSSFC) in 1966, remaining headquartered in Kansas City. 2388: 2386: 2384: 2382: 1180:

Graphic associated with the example mesoscale discussion

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List of Storm Prediction Center extremely critical days

2012: 2010: 2008: 2006: 2004: 2002: 2000: 1998: 1996: 1291: 1038:

Day 4–8 probability to categorical outlook conversion

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local National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

2379: 2286:(Report). National Weather Service. February 14, 2006 2208:"A better outlook: SPC revises its severe categories" 2074: 417:

1965: Environmental Science Services Administration (

958:

Day 3 probability to categorical outlook conversion

1993: 358:(WB) researchers' work by on a 20 March tornado at 275:In 1954, the unit moved its forecast operations to 1989:. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. 1598: 1497: 1192: 76:National Severe Storms Forecast Center (1966–1995) 2616:. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 2584:. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 2558:. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 2497:. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 2401:. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 2341:. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 2160:"Forecasters Adding New Layers of Storm Outlooks" 2140:. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 2054: 2025:. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 1955:. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 1929:. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 1662:. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 1580:. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 1537:. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 1259:) and its time of expiration (based on the local 2806: 2545: 2543: 2082:"Jun 12, 2013 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook" 2050: 2048: 2046: 2044: 2042: 2040: 1700:"A Brief History of the Storm Prediction Center" 1500:"A brief history of the Storm Prediction Center" 1204:has issued 42 meso-gamma mesoscale discussions. 2603: 2601: 2599: 2552:"Storm Prediction Center PDS Tornado Watch 232" 1508:National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 1446:(usually < 20%) are expected to occur where 178:National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 727:List of Storm Prediction Center high risk days 561:The categorical levels of risks are TSTM (for 558:day, and are issued up to five times per day. 531:maps issued by the Storm Prediction Center on 2825:National Centers for Environmental Prediction 2716:National Centers for Environmental Prediction 2700: 2540: 2272: 2188:"Forecasters adding layers of storm outlooks" 2037: 1478:, a forecaster at the Storm Prediction Center 1156:SPC mesoscale discussions (MDs) once covered 251:The Storm Prediction Center began in 1952 as 170:National Centers for Environmental Prediction 137:National Centers for Environmental Prediction 2596: 539:. The top map indicates the risk of general 474:conditions. It does so primarily by issuing 2339:National Weather Service, D.C. Headquarters 172:(NCEP), operating under the control of the 2707: 2693: 2549: 2484: 2482: 2480: 2478: 2476: 2474: 1917: 1915: 1564: 1562: 1560: 1558: 1556: 1554: 1552: 1471:Severe weather terminology (United States) 1295:Graphic associated with the example watch. 307:), co-located in the same building as the 235: 216: 27:American severe weather forecasting center 1941: 1622: 1493: 1491: 1465:National Weather Service Norman, Oklahoma 347: 305:University of Oklahoma Westheimer Airport 2633: 2631: 1967: 1498:Stephen F. Corfidi (December 27, 2009). 1403: 1312: 1290: 1175: 1160:(mesoscale convective discussions ) and 1151: 667: 212: 44:The logo of the Storm Prediction Center. 2471: 1912: 1740: 1549: 91:Federal government of the United States 14: 2807: 2516: 2514: 2512: 1592: 1488: 497: 443:University of Oklahoma Research Campus 391:torm (SELS) Warning Center on 17 June. 289:National Severe Storms Forecast Center 18:National Severe Storms Forecast Center 2688: 2628: 2196:. Associated Press. January 17, 2014. 1849: 1823: 1804: 736: 2359: 220: 182:United States Department of Commerce 176:(NWS), which in turn is part of the 2509: 1949:"Storm Prediction Center Employees" 369:unit, headed by Fawbush and Miller. 24: 2428:. TwisterKidMedia (SPC Forecaster) 1824:Jones, Judson (18 February 2023). 1805:Jones, Judson (18 February 2023). 1741:Corfidi, Stephen F. (1999-08-01). 1647: 1207: 25: 2846: 2664: 2459:from the original on 14 July 2023 2446: 2419: 1986:About the Storm Prediction Center 1529:"NOAA's National Weather Service" 1412:fire conditions over portions of 338:15th Operational Weather Squadron 309:National Severe Storms Laboratory 2820:History of Kansas City, Missouri 2642: This article incorporates 2637: 2220:. March 28, 2014. Archived from 1978: This article incorporates 1973: 1850:Bates, Sabrina (20 March 2024). 1237:Particularly Dangerous Situation 517: 506: 297:Particularly Dangerous Situation 38: 2835:1995 establishments in Oklahoma 2752:Space Weather Prediction Center 2570: 2440: 2413: 2353: 2327: 2298: 2236: 2200: 2180: 2152: 2126: 1894: 1869: 1843: 1817: 1798: 1784: 1734: 1193:Meso-gamma mesoscale discussion 1720: 1706: 1692: 1674: 1521: 1046:Combined TORN, WIND, and HAIL 966:Combined TORN, WIND, and HAIL 13: 1: 2737:Environmental Modeling Center 2335:"Service Change Notice 12-26" 2306:"Service Change Notice 19-94" 1482: 663: 527:Day 1 Convective Outlook and 407:1962: Some from NSSP move to 1286: 1274:(horizontal or vertical) or 1114:severe thunderstorm outbreak 7: 2360:Goss, Steve (20 Mar 2022). 1714:"Time Line of SELS and SPC" 1458: 1225:severe thunderstorm watches 486:and mesoscale discussions. 480:severe thunderstorm watches 460: 125:Russell Schneider, Director 10: 2851: 2550:Jack Hales (May 5, 2007). 1574:"Timeline of SELS and SPC" 1211: 1196: 1171: 1086:Universal Coordinated Time 246: 2762:Weather Prediction Center 2742:National Hurricane Center 2732:Climate Prediction Center 2722: 2680:SPC products descriptions 2193:Arkansas Democrat-Gazette 2057:"SPC Convective Outlooks" 1218:Severe thunderstorm watch 1166:Weather Prediction Center 1120:weather (EF2+ tornadoes, 453:severe thunderstorm watch 142: 132: 118: 110: 96: 86: 69: 54: 49: 37: 2526:National Weather Service 2313:National Weather Service 2112:National Weather Service 1534:National Weather Service 209:contiguous United States 174:National Weather Service 2757:Storm Prediction Center 2747:Ocean Prediction Center 2727:Aviation Weather Center 2655:Storm Prediction Center 2614:Storm Prediction Center 2582:Storm Prediction Center 2556:Storm Prediction Center 2495:Storm Prediction Center 2399:Storm Prediction Center 2366:Storm Prediction Center 2284:Storm Prediction Center 2251:Storm Prediction Center 2170:The Walt Disney Company 2138:Storm Prediction Center 2086:Storm Prediction Center 2061:Storm Prediction Center 2023:Storm Prediction Center 1953:Storm Prediction Center 1927:Storm Prediction Center 1750:Weather and Forecasting 1660:Storm Prediction Center 1602:Weather and Forecasting 1578:Storm Prediction Center 1504:Storm Prediction Center 189:National Weather Center 158:Storm Prediction Center 33:Storm Prediction Center 2644:public domain material 1980:public domain material 1421: 1304: 1296: 1189: 1181: 673: 348:Brief history timeline 2791:35.18139°N 97.44028°W 2650:Fire weather outlooks 1572:; Fred Ostby (2009). 1407: 1313:Fire weather products 1299: 1294: 1184: 1179: 1152:Mesoscale discussions 1122:hurricane-force winds 671: 430:1997: SPC moves from 329:Offutt Air Force Base 236:Mesoscale discussions 217:mesoscale discussions 187:Headquartered at the 2455:. @TwisterKidMedia. 2260:on February 18, 2017 342:Scott Air Force Base 201:severe thunderstorms 168:that is part of the 2796:35.18139; -97.44028 2787: / 2315:. November 15, 2019 2176:. January 17, 2014. 1908:. 28 February 2023. 1794:. 17 February 2023. 1762:1999WtFor..14..507C 1615:1999WtFor..14..507C 1324:Outlook probability 1320: 1244:severe thunderstorm 1043:Outlook probability 1039: 963:Outlook probability 959: 747:Outlook probability 743: 660:that time of year. 498:Convective outlooks 476:convective outlooks 367:Air Weather Service 269:U.S. Weather Bureau 213:convective outlooks 34: 2830:Weather prediction 1811:The New York Times 1422: 1410:extremely critical 1318: 1297: 1182: 1118:significant severe 1037: 957: 741: 737:Issuance and usage 674: 379:1953: SWU renamed 325:557th Weather Wing 70:Preceding agencies 32: 2770: 2769: 2224:on April 26, 2014 1444:relative humidity 1401: 1400: 1082: 1081: 1035: 1034: 1028: 1009: 990: 955: 954: 942: 911: 880: 849: 827: 822: 814: 806: 801: 774: 769: 710:tornado outbreaks 543:(including large 267:torms Unit), the 166:government agency 154: 153: 58:October 1995 16:(Redirected from 2842: 2815:Norman, Oklahoma 2802: 2801: 2799: 2798: 2797: 2792: 2788: 2785: 2784: 2783: 2780: 2709: 2702: 2695: 2686: 2685: 2676: 2675: 2673:Official website 2659: 2658: 2641: 2640: 2635: 2626: 2625: 2623: 2621: 2605: 2594: 2593: 2591: 2589: 2574: 2568: 2567: 2565: 2563: 2547: 2538: 2537: 2535: 2533: 2518: 2507: 2506: 2504: 2502: 2486: 2469: 2468: 2466: 2464: 2444: 2438: 2437: 2435: 2433: 2417: 2411: 2410: 2408: 2406: 2390: 2377: 2376: 2374: 2372: 2357: 2351: 2350: 2348: 2346: 2331: 2325: 2324: 2322: 2320: 2310: 2302: 2296: 2295: 2293: 2291: 2276: 2270: 2269: 2267: 2265: 2259: 2248: 2240: 2234: 2233: 2231: 2229: 2204: 2198: 2197: 2184: 2178: 2177: 2174:Associated Press 2156: 2150: 2149: 2147: 2145: 2130: 2124: 2123: 2121: 2119: 2104: 2098: 2097: 2095: 2093: 2078: 2072: 2071: 2069: 2068: 2052: 2035: 2034: 2032: 2030: 2014: 1991: 1990: 1977: 1976: 1971: 1965: 1964: 1962: 1960: 1945: 1939: 1938: 1936: 1934: 1919: 1910: 1909: 1898: 1892: 1891: 1889: 1887: 1873: 1867: 1866: 1864: 1862: 1847: 1841: 1840: 1838: 1836: 1821: 1815: 1814: 1802: 1796: 1795: 1788: 1782: 1781: 1747: 1738: 1732: 1731: 1724: 1718: 1717: 1710: 1704: 1703: 1696: 1690: 1689: 1688:. April 1, 2009. 1678: 1672: 1671: 1669: 1667: 1651: 1645: 1644: 1626: 1596: 1590: 1589: 1587: 1585: 1566: 1547: 1546: 1544: 1542: 1525: 1519: 1518: 1516: 1514: 1495: 1397: 1373: 1355: 1340: 1321: 1317: 1308: 1248:tornado warnings 1040: 1036: 1026: 1007: 988: 960: 956: 940: 909: 878: 847: 825: 820: 812: 804: 799: 772: 767: 744: 740: 521: 510: 354:1948: Following 334:power disruption 273:Washington, D.C. 150: 148:www.spc.noaa.gov 119:Agency executive 79:SELS (1953–1966) 65: 63: 42: 35: 31: 21: 2850: 2849: 2845: 2844: 2843: 2841: 2840: 2839: 2805: 2804: 2795: 2793: 2789: 2786: 2781: 2778: 2776: 2774: 2773: 2771: 2766: 2718: 2713: 2671: 2670: 2667: 2662: 2647: 2638: 2636: 2629: 2619: 2617: 2606: 2597: 2587: 2585: 2576: 2575: 2571: 2561: 2559: 2548: 2541: 2531: 2529: 2520: 2519: 2510: 2500: 2498: 2487: 2472: 2462: 2460: 2447:Lyons, Andrew. 2445: 2441: 2431: 2429: 2420:Lyons, Andrew. 2418: 2414: 2404: 2402: 2391: 2380: 2370: 2368: 2358: 2354: 2344: 2342: 2333: 2332: 2328: 2318: 2316: 2308: 2304: 2303: 2299: 2289: 2287: 2278: 2277: 2273: 2263: 2261: 2257: 2246: 2242: 2241: 2237: 2227: 2225: 2218:Gannett Company 2206: 2205: 2201: 2186: 2185: 2181: 2158: 2157: 2153: 2143: 2141: 2132: 2131: 2127: 2117: 2115: 2106: 2105: 2101: 2091: 2089: 2080: 2079: 2075: 2066: 2064: 2053: 2038: 2028: 2026: 2015: 1994: 1983: 1974: 1972: 1968: 1958: 1956: 1947: 1946: 1942: 1932: 1930: 1921: 1920: 1913: 1900: 1899: 1895: 1885: 1883: 1875: 1874: 1870: 1860: 1858: 1848: 1844: 1834: 1832: 1822: 1818: 1803: 1799: 1790: 1789: 1785: 1745: 1739: 1735: 1726: 1725: 1721: 1712: 1711: 1707: 1698: 1697: 1693: 1680: 1679: 1675: 1665: 1663: 1652: 1648: 1624:10.1.1.410.7852 1597: 1593: 1583: 1581: 1567: 1550: 1540: 1538: 1527: 1526: 1522: 1512: 1510: 1496: 1489: 1485: 1461: 1402: 1395: 1371: 1353: 1338: 1315: 1310: 1306: 1303: 1289: 1230:tornado watches 1220: 1212:Main articles: 1210: 1208:Weather watches 1201: 1195: 1190: 1188: 1174: 1154: 739: 666: 555: 554: 553: 552: 524: 523: 522: 513: 512: 511: 500: 484:tornado watches 463: 458: 350: 249: 146: 128: 82: 61: 59: 50:Agency overview 45: 28: 23: 22: 15: 12: 11: 5: 2848: 2838: 2837: 2832: 2827: 2822: 2817: 2768: 2767: 2765: 2764: 2759: 2754: 2749: 2744: 2739: 2734: 2729: 2723: 2720: 2719: 2712: 2711: 2704: 2697: 2689: 2683: 2682: 2677: 2666: 2665:External links 2663: 2661: 2660: 2627: 2595: 2569: 2539: 2508: 2470: 2439: 2412: 2378: 2352: 2326: 2297: 2271: 2235: 2199: 2179: 2151: 2125: 2099: 2073: 2036: 1992: 1966: 1940: 1911: 1893: 1868: 1842: 1830:New York Times 1816: 1797: 1783: 1756:(4): 507–525. 1733: 1728:"NSSL History" 1719: 1705: 1691: 1673: 1646: 1609:(4): 507–525. 1591: 1548: 1520: 1486: 1484: 1481: 1480: 1479: 1473: 1468: 1460: 1457: 1399: 1398: 1393: 1390: 1386: 1385: 1382: 1379: 1375: 1374: 1369: 1364: 1360: 1359: 1356: 1351: 1347: 1346: 1341: 1336: 1332: 1331: 1328: 1325: 1316: 1314: 1311: 1300: 1298: 1288: 1285: 1276:parallelograms 1209: 1206: 1194: 1191: 1185: 1183: 1173: 1170: 1153: 1150: 1126:egg-sized hail 1116:would include 1110:March 22, 2022 1102:April 14, 2012 1080: 1079: 1073: 1069: 1068: 1062: 1058: 1057: 1052: 1048: 1047: 1044: 1033: 1032: 1029: 1022: 1021: 1018: 1014: 1013: 1010: 1003: 1002: 999: 995: 994: 991: 984: 983: 980: 976: 975: 972: 968: 967: 964: 953: 952: 949: 946: 943: 936: 935: 932: 929: 926: 922: 921: 918: 915: 912: 905: 904: 901: 898: 895: 891: 890: 887: 884: 881: 874: 873: 870: 867: 864: 860: 859: 856: 853: 850: 843: 842: 839: 836: 833: 829: 828: 823: 818: 815: 808: 807: 802: 797: 794: 790: 789: 786: 783: 780: 776: 775: 770: 765: 762: 758: 757: 754: 751: 748: 738: 735: 665: 662: 541:severe weather 526: 525: 516: 515: 514: 505: 504: 503: 502: 501: 499: 496: 462: 459: 457: 456: 449: 446: 439: 428: 425: 422: 415: 412: 405: 402: 399: 392: 377: 370: 363: 356:Weather Bureau 351: 349: 346: 248: 245: 230:severe weather 180:(NOAA) of the 152: 151: 144: 140: 139: 134: 130: 129: 127: 126: 122: 120: 116: 115: 112: 108: 107: 98: 94: 93: 88: 84: 83: 81: 80: 77: 73: 71: 67: 66: 56: 52: 51: 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