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Original sin (economics)

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that no country (having an original sin ratio higher than 0.75) with high domestic original sin had low international original sin suggesting that if a country could not persuade its own citizens to lend in local currency at long maturities, it could not convince foreigners to do the same. On the other hand, they reported that seven countries, among the 21 emerging countries included in their sample, had low domestic original sin but relatively high international original sin, suggesting that dominant use of local currency in domestic markets is not a sufficient condition for dominant use internationally.
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determinants of original sin. Using this expanded measure, they showed that emerging markets economies could develop local bond markets (in which they can borrow in domestic currency) and attract global investors with stronger institutions and credible domestic policies. Reinhart, Rogoff and Savastano (2003) criticized the suggested international solution for the original sin problem by claiming that the main problem of emerging market economies is to learn how to borrow
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and the imposition of capital controls, are associated with lower domestic original sin in emerging economies. On the international side, their study shows that if the monetary and fiscal authorities are inflation prone, foreign investors will lend only in foreign currency, which is protected against
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in the relevant total. Original sin measures range between 0 and 1. A high measure of original sin indicates that a country suffers from high level of original sin. Thus, a country that issues all of its securities in foreign currency would have an original sin measure of one, while a country that
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In their last version of their original sin hypothesis, Eichengreen, Hausmann and Panizza defined domestic component of original sin as the "inability to borrow domestically long-term at fixed rates in local currency" while keeping the definition of (international) original sin same. They reported
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could issue debt denominated in this index until a liquid-market in this index had developed. Burger and Warnock (2003) suggested inclusion of information on domestic bond markets to account for the possibility that foreign investors were holding local-currency emerging market bonds to analyze the
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The original sin hypothesis was first defined as a situation "in which the domestic currency cannot be used to borrow abroad or to borrow long term even domestically" by Barry Eichengreen and Ricardo Hausmann in 1999. Based on their measure of original sin (shares of home currency-denominated bank
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The first measure of original sin (OSIN1) is defined as one minus the ratio of the stock of international securities issued by a country in its own currency and the total stock of international securities issued by the country. As this measure tends to 1, the greater the original sin. This index
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In these two earlier versions of original sin hypothesis, Eichengreen, Hausmann and Panizza argued that in the presence of high levels of original sin, domestic investments will have a currency mismatch (projects that generate domestic currency will be financed with a foreign currency) so that
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imperfections were the main reasons (which are beyond the control of an individual country) for original sin. Hence, as a solution for the original sin problem, they proposed an international initiative and recommended development of a
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These measures of original sin suggest that the United States, United Kingdom, Japan, Switzerland (financial centers), and Euroland countries are more successful in issuing their securities in their own domestic currencies relative to
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in 2002 discarded the domestic element of original sin and redefined (international) original sin as a situation in which most countries cannot borrow abroad in their own currency. They showed that almost all countries (except
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The second determinant of the original sin is monetary credibility. This is important for both domestic and international original sin. The monetary credibility is proxied usually by inflation. Generally, the ratio of
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base is another determinant of the domestic original sin. This concept actually indicates the level of financial development which is measured most of the time by a ratio of total domestic credits to
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is higher in countries with lower and less volatile inflation indicating that inflation can change the composition of public debt and make it riskier. Hausmann and Panizza (2003) find that monetary
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and institutions are not statistically related to original sin and found that the only statistically robust determinant of original sin was country size. Moreover, they claimed that international
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The third determinant is the level of debt burden. High public indebtedness gives rise to an inability to service debt. Consequently, governments attempt to reduce debt service costs through
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where INDEXB is defined as one minus the ratio between international securities issued in a given currency and the amount of the international securities issued by the corresponding country.
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Goldstein, M., and Turner, P., (2003). "Currency Mismatching in Emerging Economies", paper presented at an Institute for International Economics seminar, August 14, Washington.
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There are three different measures of original sin in economics literature. These measures are defined mathematically as one minus the fraction of own currency-denominated
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are used interchangeable in these early studies. Goldstein and Turner (2003) criticized this by showing that large output losses due to the currency mismatches during
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Hausmann, R., and Panizza, U., (2002). `"The Mystery of Original Sin: The Case of the Missing Apple", Harvard University, Kennedy School of Government. Mimeographed .
487:{\displaystyle INDEXA_{i}={{\text{Securities}}+{\text{loans issued by country i in major currencies}} \over {\text{Securities}}+{\text{loans issued by country i}}}} 1210:
Eichengreen, B.; Hausmann, R.; Panizza, U. (2007). "Currency Mismatches, Debt Intolerance and Original Sin: Why They Are Not the Same and Why it Matters".
658:{\displaystyle INDEXB_{i}=1-{\frac {\text{Securities in currency i (regardless of the nationality of the issuer)}}{\text{Securities issued by country i}}}} 296:. Thus, OSIN2 has the advantage of wider coverage; however, it is a less precise measure of original sin because of data limitations of bank loans. 288:
The second version of the original sin index (OSIN2) is based on two intermediate measures: INDEXA and OSIN3. Unlike OSIN1, INDEXA accounts for
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Empirical studies mainly focus on a few parameters as being the determinants of the original sin: (i) the level of development, (ii) monetary
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regime experience larger exchange rate volatility. This creates differences in the structures of borrowing. Empirical studies show that
1554:, in G.A. Calvo and M. King (editors), The Debt Burden and Its Consequences for Monetary Policy, Chapter 7; London: Manmillon Pres Ltd. 1538:"External Vulnerability in Emerging Market Economies: How High Liquidity Can Offset Weak Fundamentals and The Effects of Contagion" 207:
suffers from two shortcomings. First, it is based solely on securities but no other debts. Second, it ignores the effect of other
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in a series of papers to refer to a situation in which "most countries are not able to borrow abroad in their domestic currency."
273:{\displaystyle OSIN1_{i}=1-{\frac {\text{Securities issued by country i in currency i}}{\text{Securities issued by country i}}}} 1624: 1219: 149: 1184:, In New Challenges for Monetary Policy. Proceedings of a symposium sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. 503:
The last measure of the original sin is based on an intermediate index (INDEXB) which aims to capture the effects of the
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could not be attributed to original sin. Hence, they claimed that the original sin is not a sufficient condition for a
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Bolton, Patrick; Jeanne, Olivier (2009). "Structuring and Restructuring Sovereign Debt: The Role of Seniority".
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The fourth determinant is the exchange rate regime. As indicated by Hausmann and Panizza (2003), countries with
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regime experience large volatility in their domestic-currency interest rate, while countries that have a
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risk, or at short maturities, so that the interest rates can be adjusted quickly to any acceleration of
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is significantly correlated with original sin. However, this result is not robust to inclusion of other
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is higher for short-term debt and frequent refinancing implies a larger risk of financing with higher
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Hausmann, R.; Panizza, U. (2003). "On the determinants of Original Sin: An empirical investigation".
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issues all of its securities in its domestic currency would have an original sin measure of zero.
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Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices and Consequences
1561: 1194: 208: 133: 81: 1307: 1296:, International Finance Discussion Papers. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 1596: 1070: 1066: 670: 73: 1544: 8: 1058: 1050: 1525: 1474: 1327: 1278: 60:
The original sin hypothesis has undergone a series of changes since its introduction.
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macroeconomic and financial instability will be unavoidable. Hence, original sin and
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have been able to attract capital because they have often operated under fixed or
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Borensztein, E., Chamon, M., Jeanne, O., Mauro, P., and Zettelmeyer, J., (2004).
1537: 1374: 1151: 1081: 1043: 1035: 504: 293: 212: 145: 142: 84:. However, this early study left the causes of original sin as an open question. 1181: 1293: 1261: 1089: 1023: 979: 975: 137: 69: 1613: 1269: 1245: 1126: 1062: 991: 964: 216: 101: 49: 1323: 675: 1141: 1077: 999: 995: 968: 956: 117: 96: 42: 1603: 1451: 1429:"The Determinants of Domestic Original Sin in Emerging Market Economies" 974:
The first determinant is level of development; measured generally with
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Reinhart, Carmen M.; Rogoff, Kenneth S.; Savastano, Miguel A. (2003).
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Securities in currency i (regardless of the nationality of the issuer)
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Broner, Fernando A.; Lorenzoni, Guido; Schmukler, Sergio L. (2013).
1096: 1590: 1294:"Diversification, Original Sin, and International Bond Portfolios" 1146: 1205: 1203: 1195:"Original Sin: The Pain, the Mystery and the Road to Redemption" 72:
debt), they showed that original sin was present in most of the
1080:. In theory, and given the existence of term premiums, issuing 1599:, Speech at Sovereign Debt Restructuring Mechanism Conference. 1576:"Government Debt in Emerging Market Countries: A new Data Set" 1581:
Rodrik, D., Valesco, A., (1999). "Short-term Capital Flows",
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Eichengreen, Barry; Hausmann, Ricardo; Panizza, Ugo (2023).
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Measures of original sin by country grouping, simple average
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Inability of countries to borrow abroad in domestic currency
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Eichengreen, B., Hausmann, R., and Panizza, U., (2003).
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Eichengreen, B., Hausmann, R., and Panizza, U., (2002).
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In the second version of the original sin hypothesis,
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Controlling Currency Mismatches in Emerging Markets"
1046:to GDP (Hausman et al.,2003 and Mehl et al.,2005). 400:{\displaystyle OSIN2_{i}=max(INDEXA_{i},OSIN3_{i})} 1569:"Public Debt in Emerging Markets: Is It too High?" 940:Source: Eichengreen, Hausmann, and Panizza (2002) 657: 590: 486: 399: 272: 1246:"Yet it Endures: The Persistence of Original Sin" 1214:. University of Chicago Press. pp. 121–170. 1084:is cheaper than issuing long-term debt. However, 1611: 1545:"Sovereign Debt Structure for Crisis Prevention" 1065:. Despite these common weaknesses, emerging and 292:in addition to bond debt and OSIN3 accounts for 1386: 950: 1452:"Why Do Emerging Economies Borrow Short Term?" 1602:Onen, M., H S Shin, and G von Peter, (2023). 463:loans issued by country i in major currencies 1597:"Emerging Market Debt. What is the Problem?" 1495: 1459:Journal of the European Economic Association 263:Securities issued by country i in currency i 1564:, Policy Development and Review Department. 1426: 1353:Eichengreen, B., and Hausmann, R., (2003). 1180:Eichengreen, B., and Hausmann, R., (1999). 591:{\displaystyle OSIN3_{i}=max(INDEXB_{i},0)} 188: 1389:Journal of International Money and Finance 55: 48:The name is a reference to the concept of 1511: 1277: 930: 927: 924: 921: 918: 915: 1417:, Institute for International Economics. 1413:Goldstein, M., and Turner, P., (2004). " 1182:"Exchange Rates and Financial Fragility" 935: 1061:regime is the main reason of liability 76:and independent from histories of high 1612: 1355:"Original Sin: The Road to Redemption" 1076:The fifth attempt is the slope of the 971:, and (vi) size of the investor base. 124:concluded that weaknesses of national 1567:International Monetary Fund, (2003). 1312:Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 1292:Burger, J., and Warnock, F., (2003). 1552:"Varieties of Capital Market Crises" 215:, which are widely used for hedging 150:international financial institutions 1433:European Central Bank Working Paper 13: 1536:Bussiere, M., Mulder, C., (1999). 1489: 1132:List of countries by external debt 978:. Empirical studies indicate that 507:on original sin and is defined as 161:) rather than learn how to borrow 14: 1636: 1042:, government debt to exports and 1026:, explicit taxation, or outright 1574:Jeanne O., Guscina, A., (2006). 1522:10.1111/j.1467-937X.2009.00541.x 1471:10.1111/j.1542-4774.2012.01094.x 1162:Domestic liability dollarization 1107:, should be taken into account. 1443: 1420: 1407: 1380: 1360: 1073:regimes until the early 2000s. 1427:Mehl, A.; Reynaud, J. (2005). 1401:10.1016/j.jimonfin.2003.09.006 1347: 1338: 1299: 1286: 1237: 1228: 1187: 1174: 986:(Hausmann and Panizza, 2003). 651:Securities issued by country i 585: 551: 394: 341: 266:Securities issued by country i 1: 1606:, BIS Working Papers no 1075. 1368:"The Mystery of Original Sin" 1167: 844:Latin American and Caribbean 21:Original Sin (disambiguation) 1625:International macroeconomics 951:Determinants of original sin 907: 904: 901: 898: 895: 892: 884: 881: 878: 875: 872: 869: 861: 858: 855: 852: 849: 846: 838: 835: 832: 829: 826: 823: 815: 812: 809: 806: 803: 800: 792: 789: 786: 783: 780: 777: 769: 766: 763: 760: 757: 754: 746: 743: 740: 737: 734: 731: 165:in their domestic currency. 7: 1583:NBER Working Paper No. 7364 1578:, IMF Working Paper, 06/98. 1558:International Monetary Fund 1540:, IMF Working Paper, 99/88. 1110: 936: 10: 1641: 1499:Review of Economic Studies 1262:10.1007/s11079-022-09704-3 939: 912: 889: 866: 843: 820: 797: 774: 751: 728: 18: 1571:, World Economic Outlook. 967:regime, (v) slope of the 478:loans issued by country i 1122:Asset liability mismatch 1022:, unexpected changes in 498: 283: 201: 189:Measures of original sin 33:literature, proposed by 1002:, as measured by lower 867:Middle East and Africa 56:Original sin hypothesis 1095:Moreover, size of the 1055:floating exchange rate 659: 592: 488: 401: 274: 126:macroeconomic policies 1620:International finance 1550:Calvo, G.A., (1998). 1324:10.1353/eca.2003.0018 1250:Open Economies Review 660: 593: 489: 402: 275: 209:financial instruments 134:network externalities 82:currency depreciation 1595:Rogoff, K., (2003). 1547:, IMF Working Paper. 1465:(Suppl. 1): 67–100. 1071:pegged exchange rate 1067:developing economies 671:developing countries 608: 514: 419: 304: 226: 74:developing economies 19:For other uses, see 1377:, unpublished paper 1357:, unpublished paper 1059:fixed exchange rate 1051:fixed exchange rate 680: 148:currencies so that 1373:2012-09-27 at the 1308:"Debt Intolerance" 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107: 103: 98: 94: 90: 85: 83: 79: 75: 71: 67: 61: 53: 51: 46: 44: 40: 36: 32: 29:is a term in 28: 22: 1582: 1503: 1497: 1462: 1458: 1445: 1436: 1432: 1422: 1409: 1392: 1388: 1382: 1362: 1349: 1340: 1315: 1311: 1301: 1288: 1253: 1249: 1239: 1230: 1211: 1189: 1176: 1094: 1075: 1048: 1017: 988: 973: 954: 677: 667: 604: 600: 510: 502: 410: 287: 222: 205: 192: 183: 167: 162: 154: 121: 86: 62: 59: 50:original sin 47: 27:Original sin 26: 25: 1256:(1): 1–42. 1142:Odious debt 1078:yield curve 1000:credibility 996:public debt 969:yield curve 957:credibility 821:Developing 118:Switzerland 97:Ugo Panizza 43:Ugo Panizza 1614:Categories 1560:, (2003). 1395:(7): 957. 1168:References 984:regressors 724:1999-2001 718:1999-2001 712:1999-2001 470:Securities 455:Securities 290:bank loans 195:securities 1508:CiteSeerX 1332:201772840 1270:1573-708X 1020:inflation 1013:inflation 1009:inflation 1004:inflation 994:to total 798:Offshore 752:Euroland 643:− 258:− 106:Euro area 78:inflation 31:economics 1530:14284189 1479:14447892 1371:Archived 1111:See also 1097:investor 721:1993-98 715:1993-98 709:1993-98 211:, e.g., 1279:9768781 1147:Eurodad 1028:default 411:where; 1528:  1510:  1477:  1330:  1276:  1268:  1218:  706:Group 701:OSIN3 698:OSIN3 695:OSIN2 692:OSIN2 689:OSIN1 686:OSIN1 122:et al. 116:, and 41:, and 1526:S2CID 1475:S2CID 1455:(PDF) 1328:S2CID 1105:trade 931:0.84 928:0.91 925:0.98 922:0.97 919:1.00 916:0.99 908:0.94 905:0.99 902:0.99 899:0.95 896:0.99 893:1.00 885:0.90 882:0.95 879:0.99 876:0.97 873:0.99 870:1.00 862:1.00 859:0.98 856:1.00 853:1.00 850:1.00 847:1.00 839:0.93 836:0.96 833:0.98 830:0.98 827:0.99 824:1.00 816:0.87 813:0.96 810:0.98 807:0.95 804:0.97 801:0.98 793:0.72 790:0.78 787:0.82 784:0.80 781:0.94 778:0.90 770:0.09 767:0.53 764:0.72 761:0.55 758:0.53 755:0.86 747:0.08 744:0.07 741:0.37 738:0.34 735:0.53 732:0.58 505:swaps 499:OSIN3 294:swaps 284:OSIN2 213:swaps 202:OSIN1 110:Japan 66:loans 1266:ISSN 1216:ISBN 961:debt 163:more 155:less 95:and 80:and 70:bond 1587:doi 1518:doi 1467:doi 1437:560 1397:doi 1320:doi 1274:PMC 1258:doi 1101:GDP 1040:GDP 1038:to 1032:GDP 1616:: 1585:. 1524:. 1516:. 1504:76 1502:. 1473:. 1463:11 1461:. 1457:. 1435:. 1431:. 1393:22 1391:. 1326:. 1316:34 1314:. 1310:. 1272:. 1264:. 1254:34 1252:. 1248:. 1202:^ 1034:, 1015:. 219:. 181:. 132:, 114:UK 112:, 108:, 104:, 102:US 91:, 37:, 1589:: 1532:. 1520:: 1481:. 1469:: 1439:. 1403:. 1399:: 1334:. 1322:: 1282:. 1260:: 1224:. 640:1 637:= 632:i 628:B 624:X 621:E 618:D 615:N 612:I 586:) 583:0 580:, 575:i 571:B 567:X 564:E 561:D 558:N 555:I 552:( 549:x 546:a 543:m 540:= 535:i 531:3 527:N 524:I 521:S 518:O 474:+ 459:+ 448:= 443:i 439:A 435:X 432:E 429:D 426:N 423:I 395:) 390:i 386:3 382:N 379:I 376:S 373:O 370:, 365:i 361:A 357:X 354:E 351:D 348:N 345:I 342:( 339:x 336:a 333:m 330:= 325:i 321:2 317:N 314:I 311:S 308:O 255:1 252:= 247:i 243:1 239:N 236:I 233:S 230:O 157:( 23:.

Index

Original Sin (disambiguation)
economics
Barry Eichengreen
Ricardo Hausmann
Ugo Panizza
original sin
loans
bond
developing economies
inflation
currency depreciation
Barry Eichengreen
Ricardo Hausmann
Ugo Panizza
US
Euro area
Japan
UK
Switzerland
macroeconomic policies
transaction costs
network externalities
capital market
basket index of
emerging-market
international financial institutions
debt intolerance
currency mismatch
financial crises
currency mismatch

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