Climate risk - Knowledge

114: 493:. For low-income countries, these insurance programmes can be expensive due to the high start-up costs and infrastructure requirements for the data collection. It is theorised that high-premiums in high risk areas experiencing increased climate threats, would discourage settlement in those areas. These programmes are also usually timely and financially inadequate, which could be an uncertainty to national budgets. A considerable problem on a micro-level is that weather-related disasters usually affect whole regions or communities at the same time, resulting in a large number of claims simultaneously. This means that it is needed to be sold on a very large, diversified scale. However a well-designed climate risk insurance can act as a safety net for countries while improving resilience. 400:. Human and ecosystem vulnerability are interdependent. According to the IPCC, climate change vulnerability encompasses a variety of concepts and elements, including sensitivity or susceptibility to harm and lack of capacity to cope and adapt. Sensitivity to climate change could be reduced by for example increasing the storage capacity of a reservoir, or planting crops that are more resistant to climate variability. It is also possible to reduce vulnerability in towns and cities with green garden spaces. These can reduce heat stress and food insecurity for low-income neighbourhoods. 388:, and exposure. It is not possible to directly reduce hazards. This is because hazards are affected by current and future changes in climate. Instead, adaptation addresses the risks of climate impacts that arise from the way climate-related hazards interact with the exposure and vulnerability of human and ecological systems. Exposure refers to the presence of people, livelihoods, ecosystems and other assets in places that could suffer negative effects. It is possible to reduce exposure by retreating from areas with high climate risks, such as floodplains. Improving 709:

many places, particularly in the tropics and sub-tropics, there are longer dry spells and droughts, sometimes over consecutive years. These have contributed to drier soil conditions, lower groundwater tables and reduced or changed flows of rivers. There are risks to ecosystems, and across many water-using sectors of the economy. Agriculture is likely to be affected by changes in water availability, putting food security at risk. Irrigation has often contributed to groundwater depletion and changes in the water cycle. It can sometimes make a drought worse.

849:(amended 2019) includes the publication of a National Climate Change Risk Assessment, every six years. The First Assessment (2020) grouped risks according to five value domains: human, natural environment, economy, built environment and governance. The assessment details the 10 most urgent risks overall, among them: risks to potable water supplies (availability and quality), risks to buildings due to extreme weather events, and risks to governments from economic costs of lost productivity, disaster relief and other unforeseen expenditures. 3814: 3802: 3838: 3826: 20: 837:, to publish a Climate Change Risk Assessment every five years. This assessment sets out the risks and opportunities facing the UK from climate change. The third assessment published in 2022 identified 61 risks cutting across multiple sectors. These risks were categorised into natural environment, infrastructure, human health, the built environment, business and international. 237:(ambiguity) including different scientific understandings. There are many types of sources of uncertainty. Unlike risk, uncertainty does not always carry negative connotations. Risk is subcategory of uncertainty that is considered to make potential issues and problems more manageable. Risk is a term used widely across different management practice areas. Examples are 717:

International climate risks are climate risks that cross national borders. Sometimes the impacts of climate change in one country or region can have further consequences for people in other countries. Risks can spread from one country to a neighbouring country, or from one country to distant regions.

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The consequences of climate change are the most severe for the poorest populations. These are disproportionately more exposed to hazards such as temperature extremes and droughts. They usually have fewer resources and assets and less access to funding, support and political influence. There are other

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Climate change-related risks to health include direct risks from extreme weather such as cold waves, storms, or prolonged high temperatures. There are also indirect risks such as mental health impacts of undernutrition or displacement caused by extreme weather. Similarly there are mental health risks

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companies, which come together to form a pool to provide protection to insurance companies against catastrophic risks such as floods or earthquakes. The term is also used to describe the pooling of similar risks within the concept of insurance. It is basically like multiple insurance companies coming

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will influence human health and productivity risks in cities. Urban flooding is another key risk. This is especially the case in coastal settlements where flood risks are exacerbated by sea-level rise and storm surges. A further set of risks arises from reduced water availability. When supply cannot

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The main risks to ecosystems from climate change are biodiversity loss, ecosystem structure change, increased tree mortality, increased wildfire, and ecosystem carbon losses. These risks are linked. Loss of species can increase the risks to ecosystem health. Wildfire is an increasing risk for people

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are closely related concepts. Risk is “the potential” for a negative outcome, so it implies uncertainty or incomplete information. However, risks are more often understood in a more context-specific way. Each component of climate risk - hazards, exposure and vulnerability - may be uncertain in

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The biggest livelihood-related risks stem from losses of agricultural yields, impacts on human health and food security, destruction of homes, and loss of income. There are also risks to fish and livestock that livelihoods depend on. Some communities and livelihoods also face risks of irreversible

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considers risks within important sectors affected by climate change, like agriculture, water, cities, ecosystems, health and livelihoods. It also considers sets of major risks across these sectors. Risk categories are often assessed in relation to multiple hazards and impacts, but hazard-specific

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less likely to happen. The approach, also called DRR or disaster risk management, also aims to make disasters less damaging when they do occur. DRR aims to make communities stronger and better prepared to handle disasters. In technical terms, it aims to make them more resilient or less vulnerable.

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Climate change is affecting the overall and seasonal availability of water across regions. Climate change is projected to increase the variability of rain. There will be impacts on water quality as well as quantity. Floods can wash pollutants into water bodies and damage water infrastructure. In

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is no longer staying within a stationary range of extremes. Hence, climate change impacts are anticipated to increase for the coming decades. There are also substantial differences in regional climate projections. These two aspects make it complicated to understand current and future climate risk

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Climate change affects livelihoods and living conditions in significant ways. These include access to natural resources and ecosystems, land and other assets. Access to basic infrastructure services such as water and sanitation, electricity, roads, telecommunications is another aspect of

144:. Risk is used mainly to talk about the potential effects of climate change, but it may also result from the measures that we take to respond to those changes. The definition also recognises the different values and preferences that people have towards the human or ecological systems at risk. 236:

Uncertainty is also used in a broader way to describe general lack of knowledge about the world and of possible outcomes (epistemic uncertainty). Some such outcomes are inherently unpredictable (aleatory uncertainty). It can also refer to different framings or understandings about the world

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International risks potentially could affect small trade-dependent countries especially those dependent on food imports. They could also affect richer, developed nations that are relatively less exposed to direct risks from climate change. In addition, there are potential consequences from

611:. This can change the composition of ecosystems. Coral bleaching and mortality also increase the risks of flooding on nearby shorelines and islands. Ocean acidification attributed to climate change drives change in coral reefs and other ecosystems such as rocky shores and kelp forests. 657:

meet demand from expanding settlements, urban residents become exposed to water insecurity and climate impacts. This is especially so during periods of lower rainfall. These key risks differ greatly between cities, and between different groups of people in the same city.

774:(WMO) in 1988, is to evaluate climate risks and explore strategies for their prevention and publish this knowledge each year in a series of comprehensive reports. The most recent report to consider the widest set of climate risks across nature and human activity was the 886:

Gill, J.C., Duncan, M., Ciurean, R., Smale, L., Stuparu, D., Schlumberger, J, de Ruiter M., Tiggeloven, T., Torresan, S., Gottardo, S., Mysiak, J., Harris, R., Petrescu, E. C., Girard, T., Khazai, B., Claassen, J., Dai, R., Champion, A., Daloz, A. S., … Ward, P. 2022.

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are also part of this concept. Vulnerability is a component of climate risk. It differs within communities and also across societies, regions, and countries. It can increase or decrease over time. Vulnerability is generally a bigger problem for people in

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from loss of access to green spaces, reduced air quality, or from anxiety about climate change. There are further risks from changes in conditions for transmission of infectious diseases. Malaria and dengue are particularly climate-sensitive.

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Douville, H., K. Raghavan, J. Renwick, R.P. Allan, P.A. Arias, M. Barlow, R. Cerezo-Mota, A. Cherchi, T.Y. Gan, J. Gergis, D. Jiang, A. Khan, W. Pokam Mba, D. Rosenfeld, J. Tierney, and O. Zolina, 2021:

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terms of the magnitude and likelihood of occurrence. Assessment of the risk includes a set of measured uncertainties. These are usually given in terms of a set or range of possible outcomes, which may also include probabilities. The

1772: 340:, and fishing communities are livelihoods that may be especially vulnerable. Further drivers for vulnerability are unsustainable land and ocean use, inequity, marginalization, and historical and ongoing patterns of 523:

together to form one. While risk pooling is necessary for insurance to work, not all risks can be effectively pooled in a voluntary insurance bracket unless there is a subsidy available to encourage participation.

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The European Climate Risk Assessment (EUCRA) will assess current and future climate change impacts and risks relating to the environment, economy and wider society in Europe. The European Commission’s

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Sherbinin, Alex de; Bukvic, Anamaria; Rohat, Guillaume; Gall, Melanie; McCusker, Brent; Preston, Benjamin; Apotsos, Alex; Fish, Carolyn; Kienberger, Stefan; Muhonda, Park; Wilhelmi, Olga (2019).

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initiated in one country that might transmit or alter risks elsewhere. For example, a decision to pull out of investment in risky markets may increase climate vulnerability for many communities.

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O'Neill, B., M. van Aalst, Z. Zaiton Ibrahim, L. Berrang Ford, S. Bhadwal, H. Buhaug, D. Diaz, K. Frieler, M. Garschagen, A. Magnan, G. Midgley, A. Mirzabaev, A. Thomas, and R.Warren, 2022:

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that are driven by climatic events. Many of these risks and impacts are expected to increase in future, and therefore are an increasing concern. Risk assessments are based on responses of a

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as well as to ecosystems in many parts of the world. Wildfires and increased pest infestations due to climate change caused much of the recent tree mortality in North America.

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Cooley, S., D. Schoeman, L. Bopp, P. Boyd, S. Donner, D.Y. Ghebrehiwet, S.-I. Ito, W. Kiessling, P. Martinetto, E. Ojea, M.-F. Racault, B. Rost, and M. Skern-Mauritzen, 2022:

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of poor and developing communities. It provides post-disaster liquidity for relief and reconstruction measures while also preparing for the future measures in order to reduce

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Cissé, G., R. McLeman, H. Adams, P. Aldunce, K. Bowen, D. Campbell-Lendrum, S. Clayton, K.L. Ebi, J. Hess, C. Huang, Q. Liu, G. McGregor, J. Semenza, and M.C. Tirado, 2022:

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