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become prime minister (a prediction that few experts in Indian politics at the time predicted) but also that Y. B. Chavan would be in Singh's cabinet, that Indira Gandhi would briefly support Chavan's government, and that the government would soon collapse (all events that did occur). From the early success of his model, Bueno de
Mesquita began a long and continuing career of consulting using refined implementations of his forecasting model. A declassified assessment by the Central Intelligence Agency rated his model as being 90 percent accurate.
33:
325:
The first implementation of the EUM was used to successfully predict the successor of Indian Prime
Minister Y. B. Chavan after his government collapsed (this was additionally the first known time the model was tested). Bueno de Mesquita's model not only correctly predicted that Charan Singh would
575:
256:
He was a founding partner at
Mesquita & Roundell, until that company merged with his other company, Selectors, LLC, that used the selectorate model for macro-level policy analysis. Now, the company is called Selectors, LLC and uses both the forecasting model and the selectorate approach in
349:
Bueno de
Mesquita's forecasting model have greatly contributed to the study of political events using forecasting methods, especially through his numerous papers that document elements of his models and predictions. Bueno de Mesquita has published dozens of forecasts in academic journals. The
1280:
1287:
1670:
338:. This model predicts significantly more accurately and does a substantially better job of identifying opportunities that players have to improve the outcome by exploiting uncertainties. This model is documented in
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Since 2005 or so, Bueno de
Mesquita developed a superior model, now known as the Predictioneer's Game or PG that forecasts in a multi-dimensional space, uses the Schofield mean voter theorem, and solves for
313:
Into the early 2000s, Bueno de
Mesquita was known for his development of an expected utility model (EUM) capable of predicting the outcome of policy events over a unidimensional policy space. His EUM used
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to calculate the median voter position of an N-player bargaining game and solved for the median voter position as the outcome of several bargaining rounds using other ad-hoc components in the process.
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in an N-player bargaining game that includes the possibility of coercion, essentially a greatly generalized version of the 2-player game in
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Bueno de
Mesquita has three children and six grandchildren. His son, Ethan Bueno de Mesquita, is a political scientist working at the
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https://cap.stanford.edu/profiles/viewCV?facultyId=86047&name=Bruce_Bueno%20De%20Mesquita
501:
The
Predictioneer's Game: Using the Logic of Brazen Self-Interest to See and Shape the Future
364:
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1223:β on the use by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita of rational choice theory in political forecasting
8:
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The Spoils of War: Greed, Power, and the
Conflicts That Made Our Greatest Presidents"
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Predict When Iran Will Get the Bomb?" In
December 2008 he was also the subject of a
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889:"Forecasting Policy Decisions: An Expected Utility Approach to Post-Khomeini Iran"
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384:(with David Newman and Alvin Rabushka). New Haven: Yale University Press, 1985.
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1093:"Multilateral Negotiations: A Spatial Analysis of the Arab-Israeli Dispute"
999:"Multilateral Negotiations: A Spatial Analysis of the Arab-Israeli Dispute"
808:
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315:
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University of Michigan College of Literature, Science, and the Arts alumni
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462:
The Strategy of Campaigning: Lessons from Ronald Reagan and Boris Yeltsin
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140:
https://as.nyu.edu/content/nyu-as/as/faculty/bruce-bueno-de-mesquita.html
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The Dictator's Handbook: Why Bad Behavior is Almost Always Good Politics
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entirety of his models have never been released to the general public.
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De Mesquita, Bruce Bueno; Moretti, Lorenzo; Ray, Sabin (2013).
599:
The Invention of Power: Popes, Kings, and the Birth of the West
758:"A New Model for Predicting Policy Choices: Preliminary Tests"
171:
456:(with Alastair Smith, Randolph M. Siverson, James D. Morrow)
340:
A New Model for Predicting Policy Choices: Preliminary Tests
260:
Bueno de Mesquita is discussed in an August 16, 2009 Sunday
177:
159:
944:"The War Trap Revisited: A Revised Expected Utility Model"
1171:
493:(with Kiron K. Skinner, Serhiy Kudelia, Condoleezza Rice)
1261:
Compilation of criticisms of Bueno de Mesquita's models
676:"Can Game Theory Predict When Iran Will Get the Bomb?"
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822:
de Mesquita, Bruce Bueno; Organski, A. F. K. (1992).
382:
Forecasting Political Events: The Future of Hong Kong
168:
165:
174:
1691:
Presidents of the International Studies Association
821:
417:. Columbus, OH: Ohio State University Press, 2002.
162:
156:
1666:Queens College, City University of New York alumni
1227:Example of Model Applied To Iranβs Nuclear Program
498:
404:(with David Lalman). Yale University Press, 1994.
1167:To See The Future, Use The Logic Of Self-Interest
1090:
802:
755:
496:
1637:
1202:Bruce Bueno de Mesquita predicts Iran's future
1150:Bruce Bueno de Mesquita's under faculty at NYU
1281:
1155:Bruce Bueno de Mesquita's biography at Hoover
756:Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce (February 1, 2011).
1686:American people of Portuguese-Jewish descent
996:
941:
886:
342:, and discussed and applied to examples in
1288:
1274:
1194:
289:He is the author of many books, including
31:
847:
602:. PublicAffairs. 2022. ISBN 9781541768758
225:in 1967 and then his MA and PhD from the
702:
673:
1638:
828:International Political Science Review
308:
1696:American people of Portuguese descent
1269:
948:The American Political Science Review
762:Conflict Management and Peace Science
729:
698:
696:
642:
568:Principles of International Politics
278:" and has been featured on the 2021
274:two-hour special entitled "The Next
1238:
674:Thompson, Clive (August 12, 2009).
13:
1244:"Bruce Bueno de Mesquita Podcasts"
1058:The Brown Journal of World Affairs
667:
241:. He is one of the originators of
14:
1707:
1302:International Studies Association
1143:
1091:Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce (1990).
997:de Mesquita, Bruce Bueno (1990).
942:De Mesquita, Bruce Bueno (1985).
887:de Mesquita, Bruce Bueno (1984).
803:Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce (2009).
703:Mesquita, Bruce Bueno de (2002).
693:
636:
497:Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce (2009).
249:'s Alexander Hamilton Center for
209:Bueno de Mesquita graduated from
1254:Library of Economics and Liberty
1054:"The Power of Predictive Models"
152:
1084:
1045:
990:
935:
709:. Ohio State University Press.
437:The Logic of Political Survival
353:
245:, and was also the director of
185:; born November 24, 1946) is a
880:
815:
796:
749:
723:
645:"Mathematical Fortune-Telling"
625:
615:at the University of Chicago.
613:Harris School of Public Policy
1:
1676:Scientists from New York City
1661:American political scientists
618:
221:), earned his BA degree from
467:University of Michigan Press
440:. Cambridge, Massachusetts:
332:Perfect Bayesian Equilibrium
204:
7:
1681:New York University faculty
1219:September 30, 2015, at the
1160:September 16, 2007, at the
824:"A Mark in Time Saves Nein"
10:
1712:
1097:International Organization
1003:International Organization
840:10.1177/019251219201300106
730:Mesquita, Bruce Bueno de.
1497:Kristian Skrede Gleditsch
1309:
1232:October 11, 2016, at the
1109:10.1017/S0020818300035311
1015:10.1017/S0020818300035311
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39:
30:
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805:The Predictioneer's Game
774:10.1177/0738894210388127
344:The Predictioneer's Game
223:Queens College, New York
83:Queens College, New York
1317:Bruce Bueno de Mesquita
1188:Bruce Bueno de Mesquita
292:The Dictator's Handbook
263:New York Times Magazine
231:international relations
193:, and senior fellow at
148:Bruce Bueno de Mesquita
25:Bruce Bueno de Mesquita
302:The Invention of Power
284:How to Become a Tyrant
266:article entitled "Can
227:University of Michigan
211:Stuyvesant High School
87:University of Michigan
583:. 2016. p. 291.
545:. 2011. p. 272.
483:on September 14, 2012
469:. 2007. p. 356.
444:. 2003. p. 480.
367:. 1981. p. 226.
365:Yale University Press
213:in 1963, (along with
1537:Emilie Hafner-Burton
1521:Virginia Page Fortna
732:"Recipe for Failure"
320:median voter theorem
229:. He specializes in
1577:Michael C. Horowitz
1545:Jeremy M. Weinstein
1441:Edward D. Mansfield
1214:The New Nostradamus
706:Predicting Politics
415:Predicting Politics
309:Work in forecasting
295:, co-authored with
253:from 2006 to 2016.
247:New York University
219:Alexander Rosenberg
195:Stanford University
191:New York University
187:political scientist
112:New York University
72:Academic background
16:Political scientist
1465:Kenneth A. Schultz
1298:Karl Deutsch Award
1296:Recipients of the
655:on October 1, 2012
243:selectorate theory
199:Hoover Institution
126:Selectorate theory
116:Hoover Institution
1633:
1632:
1609:Joshua D. Kertzer
1489:Christopher Gelpi
1401:T. Clifton Morgan
1321:Richard K. Ashley
716:978-0-8142-0898-4
643:Rehmeyer, Julie.
520:978-1-4000-6787-9
476:978-0-472-03319-5
251:Political Economy
145:
144:
102:Political science
50:November 24, 1946
1703:
1623:
1615:
1607:
1601:Nils B. Weidmann
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1361:Joshua Goldstein
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727:
721:
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664:
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660:
651:. Archived from
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479:. Archived from
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305:(January 2022).
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1393:James D. Morrow
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1341:
1337:Michael D. Ward
1333:
1329:Michael Wallace
1325:
1313:
1305:
1294:
1234:Wayback Machine
1221:Wayback Machine
1162:Wayback Machine
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299:, and the book
272:History Channel
239:nation building
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189:, professor at
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1631:
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1617:Paul Staniland
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1561:Halvard Buhaug
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1481:Alastair Smith
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1144:External links
1142:
1139:
1138:
1103:(3): 317β340.
1083:
1044:
1009:(3): 317β340.
989:
954:(1): 156β177.
934:
905:10.2307/418786
899:(2): 226β236.
879:
814:
795:
748:
736:Foreign Policy
722:
715:
692:
680:New York Times
666:
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849:2027.42/66924
845:
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837:
834:(1): 81β100.
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