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cavities on oceanic water mass evolution and sea-ice dynamics... will be fundamental to understanding the oceanographic and glaciological implications of future ice shelf loss in the
Antarctic......Incorporating this feedback mechanism into global climate models will be important for future projections of Antarctic changes". Subsequent work on this core showed biological productivity in this region was heavily influenced by sea ice break up events associated with the El Nino Southern Oscillation.
374:. The object was to get samples that could provide insight into what happened to the ice sheets over the past 20 million years ago during a time of global warming and how this could predict possible collapse of the ice sheet and result in a rising sea levels. McKay said that there was evidence that it had happened before, and "we know that from just simple physics that if you raise greenhouse gas concentrations, the temperature will go up."
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the circulation of the ocean affected the deposition of these sediments and provided insight into how warm waters could result in melting of the
Antarctic ice shelves. The paper for this research, co-authored by McKay, noted that "the study on how the ice sheets and the oceans interacted in the past provides important constraints to improve numerical ice sheet models and sea level projections".
44:
363:, as one of the scientists involved in the project, McKay said there would be "potential overlaps with drilling the ship has just done in the Canterbury Basin, and advances and retreats in glaciation seen in other drilling projects, including the big ANDRILL project carried out by New Zealand drillers on the Ross Sea ice for a multinational consortium".
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ice sheets that at the end of the last ice age, 20,000 years ago, suggested could rise at the level of 1 metre per century. To explore the question of how much warming was required to melt the West
Antarctic Ice Sheet, McKay was involved in research collecting marine sediments from under the ice sheet. This research showed that in the mid
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347:. However after finding evidence of "past cycles of ice sheet expansion and retraction......confirmed that the ice sheet was highly variable, which had been the subject of speculation." A paper published in the Geological Society of America Bulletin in 2009, was described as "the most complete single record to date of
318:
concentrations were similar to those projected for coming centuries......the
Miocene Climatic Optimum, a period of global warmth during which average surface temperatures were 3–4 °C higher than today". Further research of sediments from the Miocene period was later completed in 2021 to establish how
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levels of 400 parts per million (similar to today’s values), and temperatures were 2–3 degrees higher than today, similar to those projected in upcoming decades. The work also highlighted the role the
Antarctic ice sheet played in helping to regulate global climate changes. While the research has not
255:
McKay has been involved in research that explored how stability in the
Antarctic oceans and ice sheets could be linked to historical changes in the climate over millions of years. He said that "uncertainty about how Antarctic ice sheets will respond to global warming remains one of the most important
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behave in response to abrupt climate and oceanic change. He has been involved in examination of marine sedimentary records and glacial deposits to show melting and cooling in
Antarctica over the past 65 million years and how this has influenced global sea levels and climate. This has helped climate
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He was part of team of scientists that won the Prime
Minister's Science Prize, Aotearoa New Zealand in 2019 for their research that showed the "Antarctic melt due to climate change could contribute to global sea level rise of 1.4 metres by the year 2100, rather than the one metre predicted back in
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from melting of the AIS, and highlight priority research areas......The
Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) is the largest potential source of and most uncertain contributor to global sea level rise......The response of the AIS to anthropogenic climate warming in terms of the time scales of ice loss and where
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sediment core off East
Antarctica was examined and showed that there had been a rapid sea-ice increase during the mid-Holocene period, despite melting glaciers and climate warming. The study concluded that there was a "data-model mismatch......better representation of the role of evolving ice shelf
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He has stressed the importance of understanding the role of sea ice in keeping carbon dioxide in the ocean rather than the atmosphere and the implications if human activity caused more warming, leading to the melting of the ice and subsequent rise in sea levels, which geological records of melting
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McKay was awarded the 2020 Asahiko Taira Scientific Ocean Drilling Research Prize by the American Geophysical Union (AGU) for his "contributions to Antarctic glacial history, especially through scientific ocean drilling......leadership in understanding the links between ice sheets and climate
203:, where he had originally intended to study architecture but changed to science when he got "hooked on the geology course taken during the preliminary year". After graduating from the university with a BSc in 1998, MacKay was involved in a project to study glacial deposits in mountains near
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levels comparable to what we expect in the next 20 years is leading edge, invaluable research as we struggle to understand our future in the face of a rapidly changing climate". At the time, McKay said he was planning to use the award to base himself in Europe for some time, "to work on
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the ice loss occurs, will depend on the extent of climate warming and interactions between the ice sheet and the atmosphere, ocean, and the solid Earth". McKay had participated in earlier research that aimed to inform scientific understanding of the response of both the West and
381:. In 2016 and 2019 he was awarded Royal Society of New Zealand Marsden Fund Grants as a Principal Investigator, to investigate the role of past ocean and ice sheet change. The Rutherford Discovery Fellowships are aimed at scientists and in their early-to mid-career, and
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McMurdo Ice Shelf Project. This provided McKay with the opportunity to do PhD research and he noted that Victoria University had "expanded to run the Antarctic Research Centre and had a greater focus on international collaboration......decided that pursuing a
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The lack of certainty around exactly how the Antarctic ice sheet would respond to anthropogenic climate forcing was highlighted in a review of the literature co-authored by McKay. The review considered the "future estimates and consequences of global
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For his contributions to developing an understanding of the implications of historical environmental change in the Antarctica for ongoing global warming, McKay received the New Zealand Prime Minister's MacDiarmid Emerging Scientist Prize 2011.
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281:(LGM), and confirmed that some of the evidence was "poorly documented......the geological community to target the many regions of the ice sheet where data are lacking...in particular, more chronological work is required".
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issues facing climate change scientists......better knowledge in this area has particular relevance for New Zealand because we sit at a major gateway where water from Antarctica enters the world's oceans". McKay told
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change scientists overcome uncertainty about how the ice sheets will respond to global warming and how this can be managed effectively in the 21st century. He has participated in international projects including
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Late Cenozoic (13-0 Myr) Glacimarine Sedimentology, Facies Analysis, and Sequence Stratigraphy from the Western Ross Embayment, Antarctica: Implications for the Variability of the Antarctic Ice Sheets
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Late Cenozoic (13-0 Myr) Glacimarine Sedimentology, Facies Analysis, and Sequence Stratigraphy from the Western Ross Embayment, Antarctica: Implications for the Variability of the Antarctic Ice Sheets
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Research in 2020 in which McKay was involved, explored why in recent decades, contrary to models generally showing a decrease, Antarctic sea-ice has increased while the ice shelf has thinned. A
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and involved in the Antarctic Science Platform, investigating, in his role as a Paleoceanographer, "oceanic and global climate response to past loss of the Antarctic Ice Sheets and sea ice".
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been able to definitively determine the rate of future melting of the ice sheet, it has provided critical data to help guide and train computer models used to project future sea level rise.
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402:, described McKay as an "articulate communicator and a talented emerging scientist that New Zealand needs to maintain its world class Antarctic and climate research capability", and
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179:(IODP), led major New Zealand government-funded research teams and has received several awards in recognition of his work. Since 2023 McKay has been a full professor at
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By 2018 McKay was co-chief scientist the International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) and one of a team of 30 international scientists that went to Antarctica on the
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period which preceded the Pliocene period. In the abstract, the paper noted the importance of the mid-Miocene period because "global temperatures and atmospheric
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264:: "One of our tasks in the geological community is to try to identify such events in the geological past and see how the Earth as a whole reacted."
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Antarctic Ice Sheet-Southern Ocean interactions during greenhouse worlds of the past 23 million years – and consequences for New Zealand climate
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A paper co-authored by McKay in 2016 reviewed the evidence gathered from ANDRILL-2A core samples of how the ice sheet reacted to variations of
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and had a job editing research reports at an investment bank. While working in England, McKay was again asked by Barrett in 2005 to join the
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period, three to five million years ago, the ice sheet did melt, and there was greatly reduced sea ice in the Ross Sea. At that time,
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In 2013 he was awarded a Rutherford Discovery Fellowship administered by the Royal Society of New Zealand for a project entitled:
359:, next to the East Antarctic Ice Shelf in 2010 to further investigate links between past climate change and the stability of the
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international projects such as the Andrill McMurdo Ice Shelf Project and the Integrated Ocean Drilling Programme Expedition."
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Antarctic Ice Sheet oscillations. When drilling began on the R/V JOIDES Resolution as part of the IODP expedition 318 off
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606:(Doctoral thesis). Open Access Repository Victoria University of Wellington, Victoria University of Wellington.
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1066:"November/December 2009 GSA Bulletin highlights. Peer-reviewed publication, Geological Society of America"
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research vessel and conducted a project known as Expedition 374 that drilled under the sea bed of the
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there would be a good career move". The PhD was completed at Victoria University in 2008. He became a
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219:. McKay worked with Barrett to complete his master's degree in 2000, and in that year went to the
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noted that McKay's work in "analysing what happened the last time Earth experienced atmospheric
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1015:"The stratigraphic signature of the late Cenozoic Antarctic Ice Sheets in the Ross Embayment"
754:"The Sensitivity of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to a Changing Climate: Past, Present, and Future"
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864:"Antarctic ice sheet sensitivity to atmospheric CO2 variations in the early to mid-Miocene"
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1346:"Leadership in Antarctic drilling studies rewarded – University of Wellington"
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926:"Mid-Holocene Antarctic sea-ice increase driven by marine ice sheet retreat"
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Levy, Richard; Harwood, David; et al. (2016). Kennett, James P. (ed.).
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1164:"NZ scientists drill 700 metres into Antarctic ice to study climate change"
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984:"Future of Antarctic plankton linked to sea ice, study shows – 10/09/2021"
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541:"The Prime Minister's MacDiarmid Emerging Scientist Award Prize 2011"
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Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States
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at the same university. Since 2019, McKay has been Director of the
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2013 by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)."
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at Victoria University until 2012, and in 2023 was promoted to
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McKay, R.M.; De Santis, L.; et al. (10 August 2019).
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Mackinosh, Andrew N.; Verleyen, Elie; et al. (2014).
1194:"Search Rutherford Discovery Fellowship awards 2010–2017"
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1255:"Top science award awarded to NIWA and Otago University"
723:"Smart science: Ice free past points to daunting future"
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Wellington, Victoria University of (7 February 2023).
444:"Antarctic researcher among top science award winners"
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and invited to take part in a similar project in the
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Prime Minister's Science Prizes Aotearoa New Zealand
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Ashley, Kate E.; McKay, Robert; et al. (2021).
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Academic staff of Victoria University of Wellington
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575:Victoria University of Wellington Te Herenga Waka
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1025:(11–12) (published 1 November 2009): 1537–1561.
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1064:EurekAlert News Release (21 September 2009).
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874:(13) (published 29 March 2016): 3453–3458.
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1092:"Scientists set to drill Antarctic coast"
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389:..leaders in their respective areas."
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73:Victoria University of Wellington
1392:New Zealand Antarctic scientists
1286:"Science winner to share wealth"
764:(4) (published 15 August 2020).
406:, Professor of Earth Science at
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183:and from 2019, director of the
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89:Glaciology and climate science
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1162:Mead, Thomas (9 March 2018).
721:Morton, Jamie (5 June 2013).
633:"Promotion to Professor 2022"
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237:Postdoctoral Research Fellow
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213:Transantarctic Mountains
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197:Hutt Valley High School
613:10.26686/wgtn.16945510
600:McKay, Robert (2008).
990:. 10 September 2021.
758:Reviews of Geophysics
345:sedimentary petrology
27:New Zealand scientist
18:Rob McKay (scientist)
988:GNS Science Te Pu Ao
954:10.5194/cp-17-1-2021
779:10.1029/2019RG000663
450:. 16 December 2011.
361:Antarctic ice sheets
279:Last Glacial Maximum
191:Education and career
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945:2021CliPa..17....1A
933:Climate of the Past
880:2016PNAS..113.3453L
829:2014QSRv..100...10M
770:2020RvGeo..5800663N
499:10.1038/nj7382-537a
408:Stanford University
168:Antarctic ice sheet
154:who specialises in
148:Robert Murray McKay
55:Robert Murray McKay
1098:. 6 January 2010.
571:"Robert McKay Bio"
262:New Zealand Herald
1259:Radio New Zealand
1096:Otago Daily Times
368:JOIDES Resolution
164:palaeoclimatology
152:paleoceanographer
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