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Paradox of thrift

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revenues lead to lower economic growth, understanding that the additional savings are used to create more capital to increase production. Once the new, more productive structure of capital has reorganized inside of the current structure, the real costs of production is reduced for most firms. Some criticisms argue that using accumulated capital to increase production is an act which requires spending, and therefore the Austrian argument does not disprove the paradox. However, this confuses spending on capital goods with spending on consumer goods. The paradox only refers to saving by not spending on consumer goods and ignores the productive use of those savings.
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balance sheet deleveraging has spread to nearly every corner of the economy. Consumers are pulling back on purchases, especially on durable goods, to build their savings. Businesses are cancelling planned investments and laying off workers to preserve cash. And, financial institutions are shrinking assets to bolster capital and improve their chances of weathering the current storm. Once again, Minsky understood this dynamic. He spoke of the paradox of deleveraging, in which precautions that may be smart for individuals and firms—and indeed essential to return the economy to a normal state—nevertheless magnify the distress of the economy as a whole."
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consumption will so affect incomes that the attempt necessarily defeats itself. It is, of course, just as impossible for the community as a whole to save less than the amount of current investment, since the attempt to do so will necessarily raise incomes to a level at which the sums which individuals choose to save add up to a figure exactly equal to the amount of investment.
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partners consuming a greater amount relative to their own production, i.e., if the saving nation increases exports, and its partners increase imports. This criticism is not very controversial, and is generally accepted by Keynesian economists as well, who refer to it as "exporting one's way out of a recession". They further note that this frequently occurs in concert with
226:... mere abstinence is not enough by itself to build cities or drain fens. ... If Enterprise is afoot, wealth accumulates whatever may be happening to Thrift; and if Enterprise is asleep, wealth decays whatever Thrift may be doing. Thus, Thrift may be the handmaiden of Enterprise. But equally she may not. And, perhaps, even usually she is not. 56:, the idea that what is true of the parts must always be true of the whole. The narrow claim transparently contradicts the fallacy, and the broad one does so by implication, because while individual thrift is generally averred to be good for the individual, the paradox of thrift holds that collective thrift may be bad for the economy. 456:
criticized the paradox in a 1929 article, "The 'Paradox' of Savings", questioning the paradox as proposed by Foster and Catchings. Hayek, and later Austrian School economists agree that if a population saves more money, total revenues for companies will decline, but they deny the assertion that lower
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For although the amount of his own saving is unlikely to have any significant influence on his own income, the reactions of the amount of his consumption on the incomes of others makes it impossible for all individuals simultaneously to save any given sums. Every such attempt to save more by reducing
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This paradox can be explained by analyzing the place, and impact, of increased savings in an economy. If a population decides to save more money at all income levels, then total revenues for companies will decline. This decreased demand causes a contraction of output, giving employers and employees
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deficit or a by a foreign sector deficit which is equivalent to exports being higher than imports for the country analyzed. Therefore, there exists two types of possible equilibriums for a growing economy. Either the public sector is funding the growth of the private sector via a slight deficit or
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hit, it didn’t take long before we were in a recession. The recession, in turn, deepened the credit crunch as demand and employment fell, and credit losses of financial institutions surged. Indeed, we have been in the grips of precisely this adverse feedback loop for more than a year. A process of
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Third, the paradox assumes a closed economy in which savings are not invested abroad (to fund exports of local production abroad). Thus, while the paradox may hold at the global level, it need not hold at the local or national level: if one nation increases savings, this can be offset by trading
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Two caveats are added to this criticism. Firstly, if savings are held as cash, rather than being loaned out (directly by savers, or indirectly, as via bank deposits), then loanable funds do not increase, and thus a recession may be caused – but this is due to holding cash, not to saving per se.
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As this prudent economy, which some people call Saving, is in private families the most certain method to increase an estate, so some imagine that, whether a country be barren or fruitful, the same method if generally pursued (which they think practicable) will have the same effect upon a whole
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Had the whole population been alike bent on saving, the total saved would positively have been much less, inasmuch as (other tendencies remaining the same) industrial paralysis would have been reached sooner or oftener, profits would be less, interest much lower, and earnings smaller and more
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While the paradox of thrift was popularized by Keynes, and is often attributed to him, it was stated by a number of others prior to Keynes, and the proposition that spending may help and saving may hurt an economy dates to antiquity; similar sentiments occur in the Bible verse:
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and assume that what seems to be good for an individual within the economy will be good for the entire population. However, exercising thrift may be good for an individual by enabling that individual to save for a "rainy day", and yet not be good for the economy as a whole.
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and the related circle of ideas, if demand slackens, prices will fall (barring government intervention), and the resulting lower price will stimulate demand (though at lower profit or cost – possibly even lower wages). This criticism in turn has been questioned by
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saving. The paradox is, narrowly speaking, that total saving may fall because of individuals' attempts to increase their saving, and, broadly speaking, that increase in saving may be harmful to an economy. The paradox of thrift is an example of the
289:): It is about saving by cut of expenses, which always leads to a revenue surplus of the individual, so to saving of money. But once the totality (in the meaning of every each) saves at expenses, the revenues of economy only decline. 423:
situations, when interest rates are at a zero lower bound (or near it) and savings still exceed investment demand. Within Keynesian economics, the desire to hold currency rather than loan it out is discussed under
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component of saving, other things being equal, will move the equilibrium point, at which income equals output to a lower value, thereby inducing a decline in saving that may more than offset the original increase.
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as saving is beneficial to each individual but disadvantageous to the general population. This is a "paradox" because it runs contrary to intuition. Someone unaware of the paradox of thrift would fall into a
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lower income. Eventually the population's total saving will have remained the same or even declined because of lower incomes and a weaker economy. This paradox is based on the proposition, put forth in
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The argument begins from the observation that in equilibrium, total income must equal total output. Assuming that income has a direct effect on saving, an increase in the
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economists of the 19th century, and the paradox of thrift in the strict sense that "collective attempts to save yield lower overall savings" was explicitly stated by
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nation, and that, for example, the English might be much richer than they are, if they would be as frugal as some of their neighbours. This, I think, is an error.
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The expenses decline of a partial group of economy actors can only lead to a revenue surplus if the complementary group does or accepts an expenses surplus.
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was referring to this passage when he wrote "What is prudence in the conduct of every private family can scarce be folly in that of a great Kingdom."
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For individual economic entities or a partial group of economy actors it is valid: the lower the expenses the higher the revenue surplus.
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There is that scattereth, and yet increaseth; and there is that withholdeth more than is meet, but it tendeth to poverty.
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A general decline of expenses always leads the totality to a decline of revenues and never to a revenue surplus.
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These two formulations are given in Campbell R. McConnell (1960: 261–62), emphasis added: "By attempting to
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Keynes distinguished between business activity/investment ("Enterprise") and savings ("Thrift") in his
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is reduced. This phenomenon is called the paradox of thrift ... hrift, which has always been held in
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Secondly, banks themselves may hold cash, rather than loaning it out, which results in the growth of
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its current account balance is positive and the country is a net exporter of goods and services.
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analysis shows the effect of net savings by the private sector. It must either be funded by a
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The paradox of thrift formally can be well described as a circuit paradox using the terms of
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The problem of underconsumption and oversaving, as they saw it, was developed by
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is offset by an increase in lending, and subsequent investment and spending.
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precarious. This ... is no idle paradox, but the strictest economic truth.
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on the subject of the relationships between spending, saving and labour
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economists, who reject Say's law and instead point to evidence of
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discussed the "Paradox of deleveraging" described by economist
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shock may lead not only to lower wages, but lower employment.
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English, Irish and Subversives Among the Dismal Scientists,
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The theory is referred to as the "paradox of thrift" in
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Keynes himself notes the appearance of the paradox in
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The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money
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have been proposed: A willingness to work more in a
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The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money
35:. The paradox states that an increase in autonomous 586:"A Neglected Early Statement the Paradox of Thrift" 344:During April 2009, U.S. Federal Reserve Vice Chair 754: 400:as a reason why prices do not fall in recession. 269:Paradox of thrift according to Balances Mechanics 2628: 898:Samuelson, Paul & Nordhaus, William (2005). 730:Mohr Siebeck, (2. Auflage) Tübingen 2011. S. 74. 136:which has found occasional use as an epigram in 403:The second criticism is that savings represent 317:The paradox of thrift has been related to the 1693: 984: 648:A Reply to Mr. Say’s Letters to Mr. Malthus, 443: 869: 584:Nash, Robert T.; Gramm, William P. (1969). 545:in our economy, now becomes something of a 1700: 1686: 1652: 991: 977: 847: 708:. Pollak Foundation for Economic Research 681: 583: 579: 577: 575: 573: 516: 380:, non-Keynesian economists, particularly 904:(18th ed.). New York: McGraw-Hill. 552: 387:The first criticism is that, following 59:It had been stated as early as 1714 in 2629: 827:http://www.auburn.edu/~garriro/cbm.htm 630:Noel Thompson, Nigel Allington, 2010, 570: 504:In Praise of Idleness and Other Essays 1681: 998: 972: 695: 265:of 1948, which popularized the term. 148:: or, Private Vices, Publick Benefits 728:Volkswirtschaftliche Saldenmechanik. 312: 230:He stated the paradox of thrift in 13: 2004:British credit crisis of 1772–1773 1309:What the Tortoise Said to Achilles 965:critique of the paradox of thrift) 771:The Quarterly Journal of Economics 277:developed by the German economist 14: 2653: 1717:Commonwealth of Nations countries 919: 440:nation can increase net exports. 1662: 1661: 1651: 948:Consumers don't cause recessions 872:"Hayek on the Paradox of Saving" 838:The paradox of thrift — for real 201:Similar ideas were forwarded by 1713:recessions in the United States 935: 926:The paradox of thrift explained 863: 831: 819: 794: 733: 720: 702:William Trufaut Foster (1926). 654:, uses the verse as an epigram. 618:section for further discussion. 675: 657: 641: 621: 608: 527: 468:Capitol Hill Babysitting Co-op 76: 69:and is a central component of 1: 371: 337:and wage flexibility after a 89:In this form it represents a 615: 590:History of Political Economy 7: 2459:1997 Asian financial crisis 2092:Civil War-era United States 535:increase its rate of saving 460: 10: 2658: 2235:Post–World War I recession 2055:Post-Napoleonic Depression 942:The Paradox of Thrift: RIP 870:kanopiadmin (2007-12-06). 114: 2473: 2409: 2354: 2308: 2223: 2145:2nd Industrial Revolution 2138: 2085: 2078:(1836–1838 and 1839–1843) 1994:1st Industrial Revolution 1992: 1961: 1762:Price-and-wage stickiness 1723: 1647: 1499: 1328: 1128: 1007: 825:See section 9.9 and 9.11 444:Austrian School criticism 47:which will in turn lower 2426:1990s United States boom 2214:Financial crisis of 1914 602:10.1215/00182702-1-2-395 2241:Depression of 1920–1921 2173:Depression of 1882–1885 2087:Early Victorian Britain 1822:Real and nominal values 1228:Paradoxes of set theory 382:neoclassical economists 43:and thus a decrease in 39:leads to a decrease in 2642:Paradoxes in economics 2346:Recession of 1969–1970 2341:Recession of 1960–1961 2300:Recession of 1937–1938 517:References and sources 498:Tragedy of the commons 331:paradox of flexibility 253: 228: 203:William Trufant Foster 199: 180:The Fallacy of Saving, 161: 134: 96:fallacy of composition 54:fallacy of composition 2464:Early 2000s recession 2431:Early 1990s recession 2383:Early 1980s recession 1963:Commercial revolution 1861:Nominal interest rate 705:The Dilemma of Thrift 688:The Fallacy of Saving 664:Studies in economics, 354:massive credit crunch 244:John Maynard Keynes, 236: 224: 211:The Dilemma of Thrift 194:The Fallacy of Saving 184: 156: 146:The Fable of the Bees 122: 107:, that many economic 62:The Fable of the Bees 2030:Copper Panic of 1789 1594:Kavka's toxin puzzle 1366:Income and fertility 762:(14 February 2011), 756:Eggertsson, Gauti B. 434:currency devaluation 426:liquidity preference 378:mainstream economics 16:Paradox in economics 2637:Keynesian economics 2366:1973–1975 recession 2310:Post–WWII expansion 1984:Great Frost of 1709 1812:Neutrality of money 1793:Classical dichotomy 1709:Economic expansions 1253:Temperature paradox 1176:Free choice paradox 1040:Fitch's knowability 860:, November 24, 2010 192:John M. 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660: 653: 652:John Cazenove 649: 644: 637: 633: 629: 624: 617: 611: 603: 599: 595: 591: 587: 580: 578: 576: 574: 567: 563: 562: 555: 548: 544: 540: 539:actually save 536: 530: 526: 521: 520: 510: 506: 505: 501: 499: 496: 494: 491: 489: 486: 484: 481: 479: 476: 474: 471: 469: 466: 465: 458: 455: 451: 441: 439: 435: 429: 427: 422: 418: 412: 410: 406: 401: 399: 398:sticky prices 395: 394:New Keynesian 390: 385: 383: 379: 369: 366: 365:public sector 362: 358: 355: 352:: "Once this 351: 347: 342: 340: 336: 332: 328: 324: 320: 307: 304: 301: 298: 295: 292: 291: 290: 288: 284: 280: 276: 266: 264: 263: 258: 249: 248: 240: 235: 233: 227: 223: 221: 220: 214: 212: 208: 204: 196:, pp. 131–132 195: 188: 183: 181: 177: 173: 168: 166: 160: 155: 153: 149: 147: 141: 139: 131: 125: 121: 112: 110: 106: 100: 97: 92: 87: 84: 74: 72: 68: 64: 63: 57: 55: 50: 46: 42: 38: 34: 30: 26: 22: 2526:South Africa 2283:South Africa 2129:Black Friday 1946:Unemployment 1803:Money supply 1798:Disinflation 1756: 1742:General glut 1619:Preparedness 1475: 1451:Productivity 1431:Mandeville's 1223:Opposite Day 1151:Burali-Forti 1146:Bhartrhari's 899: 879:. Retrieved 875: 865: 858:Paul Krugman 849: 842:Paul Krugman 833: 821: 810:. Retrieved 806:the original 796: 786:, retrieved 774: 770: 750: 744:Paul Krugman 735: 727: 722: 710:. Retrieved 704: 697: 687: 677: 663: 659: 647: 643: 635: 627: 623: 610: 593: 589: 559: 554: 547:social vice. 546: 542: 538: 534: 529: 502: 447: 437: 430: 413: 402: 386: 375: 359: 350:Hyman Minsky 346:Janet Yellen 343: 316: 305: 299: 293: 286: 272: 260: 259:influential 254: 245: 237: 231: 229: 225: 217: 215: 210: 200: 193: 185: 179: 169: 162: 157: 144: 142: 135: 123: 118: 101: 88: 80: 60: 58: 48: 45:gross output 24: 20: 18: 2594:New Zealand 2552:2020–2022; 2516:New Zealand 2489:2007–2009; 2435:1990–1991; 2419:(1982–2007) 2387:1980–1982; 2359:(1973–1982) 2337:(1957–1958) 2331:(1953–1954) 2325:(1948–1949) 2313:(1945–1973) 2278:New Zealand 2261:1929–1939; 2237:(1918–1919) 2228:(1918–1939) 2210:(1910–1912) 2204:(1907–1908) 2198:(1902–1904) 2189:(1893–1897) 2183:(1890–1891) 2159:1873–1879; 2148:(1870–1914) 2131:(1869–1870) 2125:(1865–1867) 2116:(1857–1858) 2107:(1847–1848) 2095:(1840–1870) 2066:(1825–1826) 2057:(1815–1821) 2042:(1796–1799) 2036:(1789–1793) 2008:1772–1774; 1997:(1760–1840) 1975:(1430–1490) 1973:Great Slump 1966:(1000–1760) 1912:Stagflation 1871:Yield curve 1817:Price level 1549:Condorcet's 1401:Giffen good 1361:Competition 1115:White horse 1090:Omnipotence 543:high esteem 488:Social trap 257:Samuelson's 77:The paradox 2631:Categories 2559:Bangladesh 2496:Bangladesh 2140:Gilded Age 1892:Depression 1844:Stagnation 1624:Prevention 1614:Parrondo's 1604:Navigation 1589:Inventor's 1584:Hedgehog's 1544:Chainstore 1527:Population 1522:New states 1456:Prosperity 1436:Mayfield's 1278:Entailment 1258:Barbershop 1171:Epimenides 936:Criticisms 881:2019-11-06 812:2012-07-04 788:2011-12-15 522:References 452:economist 372:Criticisms 321:theory of 165:Adam Smith 150:(1714) by 140:writings. 83:autonomous 2599:Singapore 2554:Australia 2531:Sri Lanka 2491:Australia 2437:Australia 2263:Australia 2253:1926–1927 2250:1923–1924 2216:(1913–14) 2192:1899–1900 2048:1807–1810 2045:1802–1804 2026:1785–1788 1951:Sahm rule 1882:Recession 1783:Inflation 1779:Deflation 1639:Willpower 1634:Tolerance 1609:Newcomb's 1574:Fredkin's 1461:Scitovsky 1381:Edgeworth 1376:Easterlin 1341:Antitrust 1238:Russell's 1233:Richard's 1206:Pinocchio 1161:Crocodile 1080:Newcomb's 1050:Goodman's 1045:Free will 1030:Epicurean 1001:paradoxes 901:Economics 712:8 January 478:Frugality 389:Say's law 262:Economics 182:writing: 109:downturns 33:economics 2584:Malaysia 2569:Botswana 2521:Pakistan 2511:Malaysia 2015:Scotland 1875:Inverted 1839:Recovery 1667:Category 1564:Ellsberg 1416:Leontief 1396:Gibson's 1391:European 1386:Ellsberg 1356:Braess's 1351:Bertrand 1329:Economic 1263:Catch-22 1243:Socratic 1085:Nihilism 1055:Hedonism 1015:Analysis 999:Notable 951:Archived 929:Archived 685:(1892). 669:, 1895, 558:Keynes, 473:Degrowth 461:See also 242:—  234:, 1936: 222:(1930): 190:—  127:—  2589:Namibia 2177:1887–88 2119:1860–61 2110:1853–54 2101:1845–46 2072:1833–34 2069:1828–29 2060:1822–23 2010:England 1902:Rolling 1788:Chronic 1569:Fenno's 1534:Arrow's 1517:Alabama 1507:Abilene 1486:Tullock 1441:Metzler 1283:Lottery 1273:Drinker 1216:Yablo's 1211:Quine's 1166:Curry's 1129:Logical 1105:Sorites 1095:Preface 1075:Moore's 1060:Liberal 1035:Fiction 892:Sources 616:history 376:Within 115:History 29:paradox 27:) is a 2614:Zambia 2574:Canada 2564:Belize 2501:Canada 2466:(2001) 2442:Canada 2389:Canada 2268:Canada 1939:Supply 1934:Demand 1907:Shapes 1897:Global 1807:demand 1732:Supply 1476:Thrift 1446:Plenty 1421:Lerner 1411:Jevons 1406:Icarus 1336:Allais 1298:Ross's 1136:Barber 1120:Zeno's 1065:Meno's 908:  671:p. 249 632:p. 122 329:and a 283:German 37:saving 2579:India 2506:India 2273:India 1929:Shock 1747:Model 1579:Green 1559:Downs 1491:Value 1426:Lucas 1293:Raven 1201:No-no 1156:Court 1141:Berry 767:(PDF) 438:every 49:total 2319:1945 2051:1812 1715:and 1711:and 1657:List 1481:Toil 1196:Card 1191:Liar 961:(an 906:ISBN 714:2013 614:See 448:The 205:and 23:(or 19:The 957:by 779:doi 775:127 650:by 598:doi 31:of 2633:: 874:. 856:, 840:, 773:, 769:, 758:; 742:, 638:." 592:. 588:. 572:^ 564:, 428:. 285:: 213:. 73:. 2413:/ 2142:/ 2089:/ 2032:/ 1873:/ 1805:/ 1781:/ 1730:/ 1701:e 1694:t 1687:v 1311:" 1307:" 992:e 985:t 978:v 914:. 884:. 815:. 781:: 716:. 691:. 604:. 600:: 594:1 549:" 281:(

Index

paradox
economics
saving
aggregate demand
gross output
fallacy of composition
The Fable of the Bees
John Maynard Keynes
Keynesian economics
autonomous
prisoner's dilemma
fallacy of composition
Keynesian economics
downturns
Proverbs 11:24
underconsumptionist
The Fable of the Bees
Bernard Mandeville
Adam Smith
underconsumptionist
John M. Robertson
William Trufant Foster
Waddill Catchings
Treatise on Money
The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money
Samuelson's
Economics
Balances Mechanics
Wolfgang Stützel
German

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