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He says other forms of tax cuts, such as a reduction in sales taxes and investment tax credits, e.g., in the context of Japan's "Great
Recession", are also very effective. Eggertsson infers from his analysis that the contractionary effects of labor and capital tax cuts, and the strong expansionary effect of government spending, are peculiar to the unusual environment created by zero interest rates. He asserts that with positive interest rates a labor tax cut is expansionary, per the established literature, but at zero interest rates, it reverses and tax cuts become contractionary. Further, while capital tax cuts are inconsequential in his model with a positive interest rate, they become strongly negative at zero, and the multiplier of government spending is then almost five times larger.
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overall economic health is going to worsen. Researchers at the AIA came to the conclusion that their
Architecture Billings Index is an accurate indicator of actual construction spending with on average 11 months' worth of lead time and therefore reliably leads economic downturns whenever the index severely drops below 50. For example the ABI plunged below 50 between July of 2000 and January of 2001 (and then in June of 2001 the percentage change in construction spending as compared to the prior year sank into negative growth territory) ahead of the wider crash in the US equity markets that followed.
1708:. Despite widespread predictions by economists and market analysts of an imminent recession, none had materialized by July 2024, economic growth remained steady, and a Reuters survey of economists that month found they expected the economy to continue growing for the next two years. An earlier survey of bond market strategists found a majority no longer believed an inverted curve to be a reliable recession predictor. The curve began re-steepening toward positive territory in June 2024, as it had at other points during that inversion; in every previous inversion they examined;
60:
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monetary policy leads to inflation only. Keynesian economists have mostly adopted this analysis, modifying the theory with better integration of short and long run trends and an understanding that a change in the money supply "affects only nominal variables in the economy, such as prices and wages, and has no effect on real variables, like employment and output". The
Federal Reserve traditionally uses monetary accommodation, a policy instrument of lowering its main benchmark interest rate, to accommodate sudden supply-side shifts in the economy. When the
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in unemployment is the 'Kantro rule'. This recession indicator isn't influenced by participation rates and has an equally impressive track record as the Sahm rule going back to the early 1970s. Kantro's 10% recession rule, created by
Michael Kantrowitz, CIO of Piper Sandler, measures the year-over-year growth in unemployed persons in the U.S. workforce. When the three-month moving average of this indicator grows beyond the 10% threshold at least in the past 11 occurrences the economy has already been in recession.
2228:. Their models estimate the 12-month-ahead recession probabilities using the term spread. This yield curve spread has been found to be a valuable forecasting tool, outperforming other financial and macroeconomic indicators in predicting recessions two to six quarters ahead. An inversion of this yield curve has been successful in predicting past recessions, including those in 1973-75, and 1981-82. The Estrella and Mishkin model later also successfully predicted the recessions in the early 2000s, and the
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of economists believed that the recession may have ended. The
National Bureau of Economic Research announced on 20 September 2010 that the 2008/2009 recession ended in June 2009, making it the longest recession since World War II. Prior to the start of the recession, it appears that no known formal theoretical or empirical model was able to accurately predict the advance of this recession, except for minor signals in the sudden rise of forecasted probabilities, which were still well under 50%.
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debts they ran up in the bubble years. This would be fine if someone else were taking up the slack. But what's actually happening is that some people are spending much less while nobody is spending more—and this translates into a depressed economy and high unemployment. What the government should be doing in this situation is spending more while the private sector is spending less, supporting employment while those debts are paid down. And this government spending needs to be sustained..."
2735:. Although the collapse was larger than the one in 1929, the global economy recovered quickly, but North America still suffered a decline in lumbering savings and loans, which led to a crisis. The recession was not limited to the United States, but it also affected partnering nations such as Australia. The unemployment level increased to 10.8%, employment declined by 3.4% and the GDP also decreased as much as 1.7%. Inflation, however, was successfully reduced.
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and the longer (e.g. 10-year) Treasury yield, has in the past, been a reliable recession signal as the curve usually disinverts (or un-inverts) nearly before the recession truly appears. Based on recent history, the last four recessions, as of Q2-2024, didn’t start until the inverted curve returned to a positive reading (steepens). Further analysis shows that "the average time to recession (...) only 66 days from when the curve disinverts."
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such as employment levels and skills, household savings rates, corporate investment decisions, interest rates, demographics, and government policies (Smith, 2018; Johnson & Thompson, 2020). By examining these factors comprehensively, economists gain insights into the complex dynamics that contribute to economic downturns and can formulate effective strategies for mitigating their impact (Anderson, 2019; Patel, 2017).
831:
1508:
financial institutions are shrinking assets to bolster capital and improve their chances of weathering the current storm. Once again, Minsky understood this dynamic. He spoke of the paradox of deleveraging, in which precautions that may be smart for individuals and firms—and indeed essential to return the economy to a normal state—nevertheless magnify the distress of the economy as a whole."
4552:
1200:, an independent federal agency that provides official macroeconomic and industry statistics, says "the often-cited identification of a recession with two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth is not an official designation" and that instead, "The designation of a recession is the province of a committee of experts at the National Bureau of Economic Research".
1444:) yet do not effectively stimulate the economy. In theory, near-zero interest rates should encourage firms and consumers to borrow and spend. However, if too many individuals or corporations focus on saving or paying down debt rather than spending, lower interest rates have less effect on investment and consumption behavior; increasing the money supply is like "
1836:, a shipping freight-cost index which reflects the demand for shipping capacity versus the supply of dry bulk carriers, is generally seen as a leading indicator of economic activity, because changes in the index reflect global supply and demand for commodities and raw materials used in manufacturing. A falling BDI can signal a slowdown in economic activity.
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tend to spend more rather than save if they believe inflation is on the horizon. In more technical terms, Krugman argues that the private sector savings curve is elastic even during a balance sheet recession (responsive to changes in real interest rates), disagreeing with Koo's view that it is inelastic (non-responsive to changes in real interest rates).
1412:, in which U.S. GDP fell by 46%. He argued that monetary policy was ineffective because there was limited demand for funds while firms paid down their liabilities. In a balance sheet recession, GDP declines by the amount of debt repayment and un-borrowed individual savings, leaving government stimulus spending as the primary remedy.
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According to economists, since 1854, the U.S. has encountered 32 cycles of expansions and contractions, with an average of 17 months of contraction and 38 months of expansion. From 1980 to 2018 there were only eight periods of negative economic growth over one fiscal quarter or more, and four periods
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for policy analysis, writes that cutting taxes on labor or capital is contractionary under certain circumstances, such as those that prevailed following the economic crisis of 2008, and that temporarily increasing government spending at such times has much larger effects than under normal conditions.
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Monetarist economists have argued that objectives of monetary policy, i.e., controlling the money supply to influence interest rates, are best achieved by targeting the growth rate of the money supply. They maintain that money may affect output in the short term but that in the long run, expansionary
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would raise investment, thereby making workers more productive and raising output and wages. Investment patterns in the United States through 2019, however, indicated that the supply-side incentives of the TCJA had little effect on investment growth. Although investments increased after 2017, much of
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contraction: The GDP measures a country's economic output, all goods and services a country produces. GDP provides a good insight into what has already been taking place in the economy. A contraction in GDP, especially if it occurs for two consecutive quarters, is a strong indicator of a recession as
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appear to be more useful to predict a recession ahead of time than other variables, no single variable has proven to be an always reliable predictor whether recessions will actually (soon) appear, let alone predicting their sharpness and severity in terms of duration. The longest and deepest
Treasury
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Excessive levels of indebtedness or the bursting of a real estate or financial asset price bubble can cause what is called a "balance sheet recession". This occurs when large numbers of consumers or corporations pay down debt (i.e., save) rather than spend or invest, which slows the economy. The term
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economists uses only the 10-year/three-month spread. The
Estrella and Mishkin model is a well-known approach for predicting U.S. recessions. This model primarily uses the yield curve, specifically the spread between long-term and short-term interest rates, as a predictor. This method has been widely
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in the stock market, specifically strong shifts in investment from leading more volatile sectors like consumer cyclicals and consumer discretionary (as well as e.g. biotechnology) to more stable sectors such as utilities and consumer staples (as well as e.g. telecommunications) can signal increasing
2023:
9-12 months ahead. The ABI is a survey send each month by the AIA to several hundreds of architecture firms. The index can be used to predict a recession. The index is centered around a value of 50. Below 50 means there is a high likelihood that construction spending will decrease and that therefore
1923:
Six other employment-based recession indicators are: 1) new claims for unemployment (8-week smoothing of 26-week change) larger than 60.000. 2) Continuing claims for unemployment (percent change year-over-year) larger 21%. 3) Employed part-time due to economic reasons (percent change year-over-year)
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wrote that the term "refers also to the sense of trust we have in each other, our sense of fairness in economic dealings, and our sense of the extent of corruption and bad faith. When animal spirits are on ebb, consumers do not want to spend and businesses do not want to make capital expenditures or
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A December 2008 report from the
National Bureau of Economic Research stated that the U.S. had been in a recession since December 2007, when economic activity peaked, based on several measures including job losses, declines in personal income, and declines in real GDP. By July 2009, a growing number
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A November 2008 report from the
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia based on the survey of 51 forecasters, suggested that the recession started in April 2008 and would last 14 months. They projected real GDP declining at an annual rate of 2.9% in the fourth quarter and 1.1% in the first quarter of
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Although the US economy grew in the first quarter by 1%, by June 2008 some analysts stated that due to a protracted credit crisis and "rampant inflation in commodities such as oil, food, and steel", the country was nonetheless in a recession. The third quarter of 2008 brought on a GDP retraction of
2704:: 1975, 1982, 1991 and 2009. All of them only lasted one year, although the third would have lasted three years (1991–1993) if IMF as criteria had used the normal exchange rate weighted per‑capita real World GDP rather than the purchase power parity weighted per‑capita real World GDP.
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In April 2009, IMF had changed their Global recession definition to "A decline in annual per‑capita real World GDP (purchasing power parity weighted), backed up by a decline or worsening for one or more of the seven other global macroeconomic indicators: Industrial production, trade, capital
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can indicate that a recession may be on the horizon as it has historically often preceded economic downturns with lead times ranging from several months to over a year. Especially the disinversion, a move back into positive territory for the spread between the shorter (e.g. 3-month or 2-year) yield
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Jobs market contraction: The 'Perkins rule', created by GlobalData TS Lombard managing director Dario
Perkins, triggers when payrolls are declining. Commonly when the Sahm rule produces a recession warning signal the Perkins rule has already triggered. Another jobs market indicator measuring a rise
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A July 2012 survey of balance sheet recession research reported that consumer demand and employment are affected by household leverage levels. Both durable and non-durable goods consumption declined as households moved from low to high leverage with the decline in property values experienced during
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when faced with a balance sheet recession would be appropriate. However, Krugman argued that monetary policy could also affect savings behavior, as inflation or credible promises of future inflation (generating negative real interest rates) would encourage less savings. In other words, people would
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in 1973, caused partially by the oil crisis happening in that same year, which brought inflation at a 13% increase. Economic recession hit by the middle of the year 1974, with no change in policy enacted by the government as a measure to counter the economic situation of the country. Consequently,
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There are various trucking indices, most notably the Cass Freight Index, which measures monthly freight activity across all domestic freight modes in North America. Other trucking indices are the FreightWaves National Truckload Index (NTI), the FTR Trucking Conditions Index (TCI), the ACT For-Hire
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loop for more than a year. A process of balance sheet deleveraging has spread to nearly every corner of the economy. Consumers are pulling back on purchases, especially durable goods, to build their savings. Businesses are cancelling planned investments and laying off workers to preserve cash. And
1407:
to encourage borrowing, Japanese corporations in aggregate opted to pay down their debts from their own business earnings rather than borrow to invest as firms typically do. Corporate investment, a key demand component of GDP, fell enormously (22% of GDP) between 1990 and its peak decline in 2003.
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A recession encompasses multiple attributes that often occur simultaneously and encompasses declines in component measures of economic activity, such as GDP, including consumption, investment, government spending, and net export activity. These summary measures are indicative of underlying drivers
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in the U.S. grew to 8.5% in March 2009, and there were 5.1 million job losses by March 2009 since the recession began in December 2007. That was about five million more people unemployed compared to just a year prior, which was the largest annual jump in the number of unemployed persons since the
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By this measure, six periods since 1970 qualify: 1974–1975, 1980–1983, 1990–1993, 1998, 2001–2002, and 2008–2009. During what IMF in April 2002 termed the past three global recessions of the last three decades, global per capita output growth was zero or negative, and IMF argued—at that time—that
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There are many reasons why recessions happen. One overall reason can be lack of demand due to sharp developments in the prices of the inputs used in producing goods and services. Another main reason can be problems e.g. in financial markets. Because recessions have many likely explanations, it is
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The European Union, akin to the NBER's methodology, has embraced a definition of recession that integrates GDP alongside a spectrum of macroeconomic indicators, including employment and various other metrics. This approach allows for a comprehensive assessment of the depth and breadth of economic
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saw private consumption fall for the first time in nearly 20 years. This indicated the depth and severity of the recession. With consumer confidence so low, economic recovery took a long time. Consumers in the U.S. were hit hard by the Great Recession, with the value of their houses dropping and
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NBER has sometimes declared a recession before a second quarter of GDP shrinkage has been reported, but beginnings and endings can also be declared over a year after they are reckoned to have occurred. In 1947, NBER did not declare a recession despite two quarters of declining GDP, due to strong
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were paying down debts and unable to carry the U.S. economy as they had previously: "The root of our current troubles lies in the debt American families ran up during the Bush-era housing bubble...highly indebted Americans not only can't spend the way they used to, they're having to pay down the
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Keynes showed that if somehow the level of aggregate demand could be triggered, possibly by the government printing currency notes to employ people to dig holes and fill them up, the wages that would be paid out would resuscitate the economy by generating successive rounds of demand through the
1867:
According to research by the U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics, the Transportation Services Index (TSI) is a leading indicator of economic cycles. It tracks the movement of freight and passengers to provide insights into the broader economic conditions. Both TSI index components lead the
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of the beginning a recession. Usually, the signal happens in the three months of the recession. The CFNAI Diffusion Index signal tends to happen about one month before a related signal by the CFNAI-MA3 (3-month moving average) drops below the −0.7 level. The CFNAI-MA3 correctly identified the 7
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Behavior that may be optimal for an individual (e.g., saving more during adverse economic conditions) can be detrimental if too many individuals pursue the same behavior, as ultimately, one person's consumption is another person's income. Too many consumers attempting to save (or pay down debt)
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Official economic data shows that a substantial number of nations were in recession as of early 2009. The US entered a recession at the end of 2007, and 2008 saw many other nations follow suit. The US recession of 2007 ended in June 2009 as the nation entered the current economic recovery. The
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For the last three of these recessions, the NBER decision has approximately conformed with the definition involving two consecutive quarters of decline. While the 2001 recession did not involve two consecutive quarters of decline, it was preceded by two quarters of alternating decline and weak
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The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago developed the ROC Threshold Index (ROC means receiver operating characteristic). It combines multiple leading indicators to predict recessions. It has shown better predictive ability than individual indicators up to 11 months ahead. And it also significantly
1812:
Indicators of chemical activity provide a longer lead time compared to other economic indicators. Tracking chemical activity as an index can lead by two to fourteen months, with an average lead of eight months at cycle peaks and four months at cycle troughs, according to the American Chemistry
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or monetary policies by the government, which are contractionary in nature: A contractionary policy is a tool usually used to tame rising inflation. Excessive use of tightening policies, e.g. too rapid increases in interest rates, can reduce demand and consumer spending for goods and services,
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U.S. employers shed 63,000 jobs in February 2008, the most in five years. Former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan said on 6 April 2008 that "There is more than a 50 percent chance the United States could go into recession." On 1 October, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that an
1919:
Growing shifts in labor market internals to part-time work signals increasing weakness in the economy as normally part-time jobs rise and full-time jobs decrease as a share of employment before a recession takes hold. As an indicator this can be measured simply using the ratio of part-time to
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Summary: Why recessions happen is a complex phenomena often resulting from a interplay of various factors. While these factors can individually contribute to a recession, the cumulative impact of several occurring simultaneously can significantly amplify the negative effect on the economy.
5000:
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the subprime mortgage crisis. Further, reduced consumption due to higher household leverage can account for a significant decline in employment levels. Policies that help reduce mortgage debt or household leverage could therefore have stimulative effects (Smith & Johnson, 2012).
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derives from an accounting identity that holds that assets must always equal the sum of liabilities plus equity. If asset prices fall below the value of the debt incurred to purchase them, then the equity must be negative, meaning the consumer or corporation is insolvent. Economist
2039:
The long-term spread: The spread between a shorter-term rate (like the three-month Treasury yield) and 10-year U.S. bond yields. The long-term Treasury yield spread has been particularly effective at predicting recessions many months in advance, achieving an AUC (Area Under the
1408:
Japanese firms overall became net savers after 1998, as opposed to borrowers. Koo argues that it was massive fiscal stimulus (borrowing and spending by the government) that offset this decline and enabled Japan to maintain its level of GDP. In his view, this avoided a U.S. type
1618:: Artificially low interest rates can encourage excessive borrowing and result in a buildup of risk in the financial sector. When interest rates rise, these investments (like new constructions in real estate) may fail, exacerbate economic declines, contributing to a recession.
1176:(NBER) is generally seen as the authority for dating US recessions. The NBER, a private economic research organization, defines an economic recession as: "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in
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1855:
Both indices (BDI and DJTA) serve as barometers for economic health and are considered to be leading economic indicators but from different perspectives. The BDI focuses on global trade and commodity demand, while the DJTA reflects domestic transportation activity in the
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larger 16%. 4) Unemployed more than 15 weeks (percent change from 12-month low) larger 30%. 5) Temporary help services (percent change year-over-year) smaller -2%. 6) Aggregate hours worked, production and non-supervisory employees (6-month percent change) smaller 0%.
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The full impact of a recession on employment may not be felt for several quarters. After recessions in Britain in the 1980s and 1990s, it took five years for unemployment to fall back to its original levels. Employment discrimination claims rise during a recession.
1980:: Declines in consumer sentiment and confidence can signal a recession. These measures reflect consumers' outlook on the economy and their willingness to spend, which drives economic activity. A drop in consumer confidence often precedes reduced consumer spending.
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demanding to predict them. Some variables might at first glance be the causes of recessions, but they could also be the results of a recession, which means they are endogenous to recessions. One can summarize the causes of recessions in the following categories:
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In July 2022, the NBER released a statement regarding declaring a recession following a second consecutive quarter of shrinking GDP, "There is no fixed rule about what measures contribute information to the process or how they are weighted in our decisions".
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Sausage sales: Heightened appetites for sausages might be a harbinger of a looming economic downturn, because sausages are a cheaper protein substitute for other higher-priced meat products, a reaction by shoppers when times are tough experts call the “trade
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Average weekly hours in manufacturing. Firms tend to react to worsening business cycle circumstances by lowering hours worked before laying off workers, according to Glosser and Golden (1997). This popular indicator leads industrial production by two to four
1666:
can cause widespread disruptions in critical sectors in supply chains and disrupt economic activity, reduce productivity, increase costs, affect confidence and thereby diminish economic activity, leading to decreased spending and investment and finally
1605:
Financial market problems: Issues in financial markets, such as rapid credit expansion. When households accumulate excessive debt and later face difficulties in meeting their obligations, they cut back on consumption, leading to a decrease in economic
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was only one manifestation of a broader problem of excessive debt—that it was a so-called "balance sheet recession". In Krugman's view, such crises require debt reduction strategies combined with higher government spending to offset declines from the
1502:
hit, it didn't take long before we were in a recession. The recession, in turn, deepened the credit crunch as demand and employment fell, and credit losses of financial institutions surged. Indeed, we have been in the grips of precisely this adverse
2684:(IMF), "Global recessions seem to occur over a cycle lasting between eight and 10 years." The IMF takes many factors into account when defining a global recession. Until April 2009, IMF several times communicated to the press, that a global annual
1196:". The NBER also explains that: "a recession begins when the economy reaches a peak of activity and ends when the economy reaches its through." The NBER is considered the official arbiter of recession start and end dates for the United States. The
1898:: A enlarging unemployment rate with rising initial claims for unemployment insurance indicate weakening labor market conditions, which can be a precursor to a recession. This indicator leads industrial production by two to three months. Also see
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Sahm Recession Indicator signals the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate (U3) rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to the minimum of the three-month averages from the previous 12
1893:
Growing unemployment rate as measured by the initial claims for unemployment insurance (indicated by a constant enduring year-over-year increase in the three-week average of unemployment insurance initial claims), which are reported by the
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found that only two of the sixty recessions around the world during the 1990s had been predicted by a consensus of economists one year earlier, while there were zero consensus predictions one year earlier for the 49 recessions during 2009.
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during a recession. In other words, unemployment never reaches 0%, so it is not a negative indicator of the health of an economy, unless it exceeds the "natural rate", in which case the excess corresponds directly to a loss in the GDP.
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The type and shape of recessions are distinctive. In the US, v-shaped, or short-and-sharp contractions followed by rapid and sustained recovery, occurred in 1954 and 1990–1991; U-shaped (prolonged slump) in 1974–1975, and W-shaped, or
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Australia next went into recession in March 2020, due to the impact of huge bush fires and the COVID-19 pandemic's effect on tourism and other important aspects of the economy. This recession, while steep, only lasted until May 2020.
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Credit conditions like credit spreads. The spread between corporate bonds and U.S. Treasuries is important. If the spread between corporate and government debt increases, this could signal that private sector lending is becoming
1843:
contains railroads, shipping companies, air freight carriers, marine transportation, delivery services, and logistics companies. The performance of transportation stocks can predict trends in the broader market, according to the
2175:(includes some of the above indicators). The LEI's lead time is six to seven months. The Conference Board’s leading index is highly accurate in the near term, one to three months ahead (accomplishing an AUC value of 0.97).
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also described a "paradox of deleveraging" as financial institutions that have too much leverage (debt relative to equity) cannot all de-leverage simultaneously without significant declines in the value of their assets.
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For example, economist Richard Koo wrote that Japan's "Great Recession" that began in 1990 was a "balance sheet recession". It was triggered by a collapse in land and stock prices, which caused Japanese firms to have
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Low industrial output and sales: During economic downturns, companies reduce production to minimize risk. This leads to lower industrial output and sales, which can signal an impending recession, because it causes a
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by making necessities like transportation and housing costlier. This will tend to constrict spending for non-essential goods and services. Once the recession occurs, commodity prices will usually reset to a lower
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and credit and debt issues: Overextension of credit and accumulation of risky debt can lead to financial crises. When borrowers (e.g. corporations) default, it can cause a cascade of business failures and reduced
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policies to stimulate exports and reduce imports are other techniques to stimulate demand. He estimated in March 2010 that developed countries representing 70% of the world's GDP were caught in a liquidity trap.
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1798:. As fewer goods are produced, lesser resources like labor, equipment and raw materials are required. As industrial output falls this sooner or later leads to a cutback in hiring as well as a surge in layoffs.
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declared that nine US states were in a recession. In November 2008, employers eliminated 533,000 jobs, the largest single-month loss in 34 years. In 2008, an estimated 2.6 million U.S. jobs were eliminated.
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rather than invest. Such expectations can create a self-reinforcing downward cycle, bringing about or worsening a recession. Consumer confidence is one measure used to evaluate economic sentiment. The term
1158:
In terms of financial indicators - A significant increase in loan defaults or a tightening of credit conditions by financial institutions, leading to a decrease in business investment and consumer spending.
2512:, Siegel mentions that since 1948, ten recessions were preceded by a stock market decline, by a lead time of 0 to 13 months (average 5.7 months), while ten stock market declines of greater than 10% in the
2047:
The near-term forward spread: This is the difference between the market expectation of the interest rate on a three-month Treasury bill six quarters in the future and the current three-month Treasury bill
6464:
Using the U.S. Treasury Yield Curve to predict S&P 500 returns and U.S. recessions | Theodore Gregory Hanks | Pennsylvania State University, Schreyer Honors College Department of Finance | Spring 2012
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The Atlanta Fed offers a GDPnow model, which estimates changes in real GDP growth by aggregating 13 subcomponents that make up GDP. GDPnow can provide a timelier gauge of the current state of the economy.
1544:: A widespread drop in spending, known as an adverse demand shock, can lead to recessions. This can be triggered by various events, including the bursting of economic bubbles (see economic bubbles below).
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Global spillover effects: Recessions in one part of the world can have spillover effects on other economies due to global interconnectedness. For example, economic troubles in Europe can impact the U.S.
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experienced a recession in 2012: the economies of the 17-nation region failed to grow during any quarter of the 2012 calendar year. The recession deepened during the final quarter of the year, with the
2538:
An administration generally gets credit or blame for the state of the economy during its time in office; this state of affairs has caused disagreements about how particular recessions actually started.
2661:. The loss of a job is known to have a negative impact on the stability of families, and individuals' health and well-being. Fixed income benefits receive small cuts which make it tougher to survive.
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Basic industrial chemicals like chlorine, alkalies, pigments and plastic resins are positioned early in the supply chain. This early position allows to identify emerging turning points in the economy.
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5272:
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Producer Price Index (PPI) by Industry: General Freight Trucking Index. These indices are essential for understanding the dynamics of the trucking industry and predicting future market conditions.
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Chemical activity also includes data on hours worked in chemicals, chemical company stock data, publicly sourced chemical price information, end-use chemical industry sales-to-inventories.
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5384:
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As a result of late 1920s profit issues in agriculture and cutbacks, 1931–1932 saw Australia's biggest recession in its entire history. It fared better than other nations that underwent
2188:. This index contains the real oil price, well permits, initial claims for unemployment insurance, Texas stock index, help-wanted index and average weekly hours worked in manufacturing.
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flows, oil consumption, unemployment rate, per‑capita investment, and per‑capita consumption." By this new definition, a total of four global recessions took place since
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Plunging underwear sales: During the global financial crisis, men's underwear sales dropped significantly, mirroring reduced consumer spending and causing former Federal Reserve head
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can also signal a recession. As consumers cut back on spending, businesses may respond by reducing production and laying off workers, creating a cycle that can lead to a recession.
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Over the years, some commentators dropped most of Shiskin's "recession-spotting" criteria for the simplistic rule-of-thumb of a decline in real GNI for two consecutive quarters.
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between firms rises sharply. The fall in productivity could also be attributed to several macro-economic factors, such as the loss in productivity observed across the UK due to
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The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) and its nonfinancial leverage subindex can be used as leading indicators to predict a recession.
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contraction that occurs when there is a period of broad decline in economic activity. Recessions generally occur when there is a widespread drop in spending (an adverse
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Rising corporate debt can foreshadow a bear market, notably when businesses go ahead with taking on more debt, despite having diminishing sales and dwindling earnings.
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1638:: Euphoria and speculative borrowing as well as unsustainable financial practices eventually result in economic downturns. A Minsky Moment marks the point at which
1612:: Restrictions on credit availability also known as credit crunch, can reduce consumer spending and business investment, leading to a slowdown in economic activity.
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6501:
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8013:
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1774:
Measuring manufacturing output against business demand (new orders plus backlog minus inventory) as a composite index for U.S. economic activity, using data from
9373:
7768:
5327:"2 recession indicators with perfect track records show the US just entered a downturn — opening the door for stocks to plummet as the Fed gets set to cut rates"
1140:
suggested that a rough translation of the bureau's qualitative definition of a recession into a quantitative one that almost anyone can use might run like this:
2224:, uses the difference between the yields on 10-year Treasury bonds and 3-month Treasury bills, as detailed in their research papers and working papers for the
1218:
4060:
2526:
Since the business cycle is very hard to predict, Siegel argues that it is not possible to take advantage of economic cycles for timing investments. Even the
8273:
7798:
6687:
3648:
1527:: A sudden increase in the prices of key inputs (input price shock) can lead to higher production costs and reduced aggregate demand, triggering a recession.
1322:
Recessions have psychological and confidence aspects. For example, if companies expect economic activity to slow, they may reduce employment levels and save
2232:
of 2007-2009. Moreover, a negative spread has historically preceded each U.S. recession since the 1950s, according to The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
1161:
In terms of diffusion – A decline in non-agricultural employment in more than 75% of industries, as measured over six-month spans, for six months or longer.
9363:
7878:
1337:
1088:, a recession is defined as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the market, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real
5593:
5414:
8128:"Real GDP First-Quarter 2008 Preliminary Estimate :: Brent Meyer :: Economic Trends :: 06.03.08 :: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland"
7550:
7068:
6604:
6384:
5264:
4618:
5783:
5358:"Sahm Rule is picking up on something that's 'very worrisome' - New Century Advisors chief economist Claudia Sahm weighs in on the Fed's next rate move"
776:
9353:
7189:
6818:
4539:
2991:
0.5%, the biggest decline since 2001. The 6.4% decline in spending during Q3 on non-durable goods, like clothing and food, was the largest since 1950.
2720:. The nation also benefited from greater productivity in manufacturing, facilitated by trade protection, which also helped with lessening the effects.
2044:
curve) value of 0.89 at 14 months ahead. And it is the best predictor at a horizon of 16 to 20 months ahead, when compared to other leading indicators.
1628:
period and accumulation of financial risks during good economic times creates a asset bubble, followed by continued sharp declines in asset prices, a (
1024:
4686:
4569:
4153:
2103:, as measured e.g. by the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI), may increase before recessions, which usually hinders
1782:(Empire Manufacturing, Philadelphia, Kansas City, Richmond, Dallas) indices, has been a reliable recession indicator during the last eight recessions.
1302:
in 1949 and 1980–1982. Japan's 1993–1994 recession was U-shaped and its 8-out-of-9 quarters of contraction in 1997–1999 can be described as L-shaped.
9358:
5326:
3456:
3417:
5962:
8628:
8488:
6532:
3992:
2122:
Significant declines in stock prices can reflect investor pessimism about future economic conditions and can be a leading indicator of a recession.
1879:
Business sector profits. Declining corporate earnings over successive quarters can signal economic trouble and the risk of a potential bear market.
1210:
are generally defined as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth, as measured by the seasonal adjusted quarter-on-quarter figures for
861:
8104:
7489:
3594:
7345:
7293:
6174:
5436:
Neves, Pedro Cunha; Afonso, Óscar; Silva, Sandra Tavares (February 2016). "A Meta-Analytic Reassessment of the Effects of Inequality on Growth".
2143:
1973:
1771:
A decline in manufacturing activities and new orders for consumer and capital goods can signal reduced business investment and economic slowdown.
1229:
8457:
8127:
8056:
6537:
5376:
4939:
4122:
3850:
7211:
3911:
8194:
7106:
6016:
4091:
1998:
1712:
analysts found the curve had re-steepened before a recession began. The following variables and indicators are used by economists, like e.g.
7982:
7452:
5551:
5521:
5210:
5139:
3571:
8871:
8496:
7370:
6457:
6339:
6099:
4799:
4570:"Wall Street starts 2017 with tailwind | By Juergen Buettner | 4 January 2017 | Chart 1: Consumer Confidence Index and Historically Shocks"
3699:
1908:
Swelling unemployment rate, specifically a unemployment rate rising above its 36-month moving average is a cause for concern, according to
7525:
3799:
7930:
5620:
3316:
6359:
5985:
9231:
9178:
6983:
5483:
4770:
1145:
7607:
7394:
4970:
3349:
1263:, although some argue that their causes and cures can be different. As an informal shorthand, economists sometimes refer to different
5754:
4594:
9089:
8696:
3275:
2773:
1724:
The U.S. Conference Board's Present Situation Index year-over-year change turns negative by more than 15 points before a recession.
1207:
8701:
8492:
8037:
7232:
5651:
5113:
3064:
2951:
2871:
2795:
2731:
Another recession came at the beginning of the 1990s as the result of a major stock collapse in October 1987, referred to now as
2269:
of the national unemployment rate (U3) rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to its low during the previous 12 months.
2211:, the model developed by economist Jonathan H. Wright, uses yields on 10-year and three-month Treasury securities as well as the
7951:
1415:
Krugman discussed the balance sheet recession concept in 2010, agreeing with Koo's situation assessment and view that sustained
9067:
8799:
8794:
8789:
8783:
8153:
7320:
6312:
Ulatan, Jeffrey (3 July 2020). "2020 Recession Signals, After US-Iran Airstrike. Vanguard ETF Best Performing Funds for 2020".
4641:"Seeking Alpha | Take Me To Your Leader: Analyzing The Latest Leading Indicators | by −1.9% | 24 September 2019"
4331:
3969:
3762:
3621:
2623:, could be another example, since they disrupt the global supply chain or prevent the movement of goods, services, and people.
2462:
2405:. Strategies favored for moving an economy out of a recession vary depending on which economic school the policymakers follow.
1624:: Unsustainable rapid increases in asset prices due to excessive risk-taking, characterized by exaggerated optimism during the
395:
171:
6234:
6076:
5803:
5233:
3378:
9072:
8601:
7738:
7419:
7165:
7052:
6801:
6772:
6745:
6716:
5872:
5670:
5051:
4304:
4267:
4251:
4196:
4035:
3944:
3740:
3137:
1852:
can signal potential early economic weakness if transportation stocks are underperforming while industrial stocks are rising.
997:
8077:
6605:"'Something has been changing': Why a top economist is still worried about a recession even as the US economy keeps growing"
6562:
Lihn, Stephen H. T. (10 August 2019). "Real-time Recession Probability with Hidden Markov Model and Unemployment Momentum".
4654:
9320:
7708:
6047:
4640:
2966:
2527:
2225:
1346:
hire people." Behavioral economics has also explained many psychological biases that may trigger a recession including the
1173:
854:
7656:
2437:
investment. For example, the Trump administration claimed that lower effective tax rates on new investment imposed by the
7681:
5082:
3529:
2128:
measuring of stock market volatility. A high VIX indicates increased market stress, which can precede economic downturns.
7262:
7129:
6493:
6411:"Forecasting of recessions via dynamic probit for time series: replication and extension of Kauppi and Saikkonen (2008)"
5032:
3877:
2723:
The economy had gone into a brief recession in 1961 because of a credit squeeze. Australia was facing a rising level of
9216:
8364:
8217:
8005:
7423:
6789:
6669:
6410:
6167:"A 'Big Data' View of the U.S. Economy: Introducing the Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes – Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago"
4655:"Background on the Chicago Fed National Activity Index | Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago | 19 September 2019"
2863:
2551:
987:
532:
380:
7760:
1632:), which can lead to a cascade of business failures, significant recessions and worst case depressions and stagnation.
8424:
7902:
3834:
2255:
2041:
1010:
7844:
6204:
2523:
market also usually weakens before a recession. However, real estate declines can last much longer than recessions.
2239:
and initial jobless claims. U.S. unemployment index is defined as the difference between the 3-month average of the
2181:, research indicates that the ALI can lead turning points in the business cycle by approximately five to six months.
9062:
8429:
8265:
4744:
4052:
2243:
and the 12-month minimum of the unemployment rate. Unemployment momentum and acceleration with Hidden Markov model.
2216:
1840:
473:
7790:
9280:
8487:
8389:
2939:
1920:
full-time employment (with the year-over-year change crossing into negative territory as recession risk warning).
1775:
1155: ; a 15% decline in non-agricultural employment; a two-point rise in unemployment to a level of at least 6%.
847:
7870:
5909:
Dwyer, Gerald P.; Devereux, John; Baier, Scott; Tamura, Robert (2013). "Recessions, growth and banking crises".
9014:
8173:
5406:
1902:
indicator below in the overview of recession indicators, which tracks the momentum in the U3 unemployment rate.
7064:
6376:
4614:
4176:
2800:
1248:
wrote that under ideal conditions, a country's economy should have the household sector as net savers and the
1204:
downturns, enabling policymakers to devise more effective strategies for economic stabilization and recovery.
9042:
8758:
7045:
Stocks for the Long Run: The Definitive Guide to Financial Market Returns and Long-Term Investment Strategies
6585:
4526:
4449:
3074:
2692:
because of the opposite being found for 2001, the economic state in this year by itself did not qualify as a
2438:
2259:
2240:
2236:
2185:
1727:
The U.S. Conference Board Leading Economic Indicator year-over-year change turns negative before a recession.
1705:
1642:
investors are forced to sell off assets to cover their debts, leading to a rapid decline in asset prices and
578:
385:
7259:"Recession Britain: New ESRC report on the impact of recession on people's jobs, businesses and daily lives"
7186:
4487:
1341:, was the first economist to claim that such emotional mindsets significantly affect the economy. Economist
8924:
4573:
4145:
2995:
2009. These forecasts represented significant downward revisions from the forecasts of three months prior.
2955:
2607:
tends to fall in the early stages of a recession, then rises again as weaker firms close. The variation in
2584:
2563:
2513:
2414:
1849:
517:
505:
5296:"A reliable labor-market recession indicator has triggered — but this time it could be bullish for stocks"
4841:
1860:
Trucking Index, the American Trucking Associations' Truck Tonnage Index, the DAT Trendlines index and the
9238:
9020:
8952:
6901:"How Effective is Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound? Identification Through Industry Heterogeneity"
5954:
3009:
2681:
2204:
outperformed other measures at leading recession forecasts with a range of six to nine months in advance.
2172:
2119:
Lowering of asset prices, such as homes and financial assets, or high personal and corporate debt levels.
2020:
1963:
1944:
1744:
1197:
1078:
931:
407:
237:
161:
89:
8100:
7820:
Blake, Aaron (28 July 2022). "What two negative GDP quarters means for 'recession' – and our politics".
9295:
9270:
9125:
9120:
9079:
9047:
8834:
8752:
7481:
7337:
7285:
4971:"The "bloodbath" in America's trucking industry has officially spilled over to the rest of the economy"
2063:
1895:
1861:
1134:
992:
527:
510:
390:
31:
8131:
6294:
6257:
6166:
6122:
5853:
5834:
5735:
5689:
5574:
5464:
5162:
4920:
4901:
4822:
4450:"Recessions are difficult, but stagnant growth could prove more challenging, Stanford economist warns"
3204:
2197:
The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis posts the Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities (RECPROUSM156N).
1905:
Growing labor market weakness as indicated by a negative three-month average of U.S. nonfarm payrolls.
9315:
9305:
9052:
8295:
8053:
6524:
4114:
3854:
3311:
2716:, but their poor economic states influenced Australia, which depended on them for export, as well as
2004:
Tumbling sales in durable consumer goods, like e.g. new car sales (light vehicles unit retail sales).
1977:
1969:
1441:
878:
412:
7446:"World Economic Outlook (WEO) April 2013: Statistical appendix – Table A1 – Summary of World Output"
7367:
7219:
6874:
6848:
2178:
9205:
8993:
8190:
6900:
5265:"The Sahm Rule has flashed, but there's a simpler recession indicator investors should be watching"
3907:
2959:
2779:
2620:
2019:
Non-residential construction spending (like e.g. offices and industrial plants) as measured by the
1535:
1499:
1453:
1383:
601:
566:
402:
17:
7974:
7098:
6024:
2442:
the increase was a response to oil prices, and investment in other sectors had negligible growth.
2194:
The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis posts the Weekly Economic Index (Lewis-Mertens-Stock) (WEI).
1700:
yield curve inversion in history began in July 2022, as the Federal Reserve sharply increased the
9426:
9310:
9300:
9290:
9285:
9275:
9155:
9150:
9145:
8666:
7445:
7197:
5543:
5513:
5202:
5181:
5131:
4879:
4083:
3936:
Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology Drives the Economy, and Why It Matters for Global Capitalism
2508:
2458:
1367:
1328:
571:
493:
488:
460:
43:
6652:
6475:
6455:
6336:
6096:
4796:
4540:
Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Consumer Confidence: A Useful Indicator of … the Labor Market?
2778:
The most recent recession to affect the United Kingdom was the 2020 recession attributed to the
9057:
8987:
8819:
7514:
5891:
4468:
4430:
4411:
4392:
4373:
4354:
3803:
3552:
3160:
3024:
2713:
2580:
2136:
1464:
or other techniques in which money is effectively printed to purchase assets, thereby creating
1347:
1260:
1108:
901:
803:
554:
370:
365:
350:
317:
176:
7922:
6733:
6706:
6567:
4294:
3306:
9421:
9243:
9226:
9221:
9210:
9173:
9168:
9162:
8773:
8742:
8640:
8299:
6762:
4023:
3934:
3818:
2894:
2888:
2882:
2543:
2472:
wrote in December 2010 that significant, sustained government spending was necessary because
2191:
The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago posts updates of the Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (BBKI).
1259:
A severe (GDP down by 10%) or prolonged (three or four years) recession is referred to as an
1185:
1152:
982:
911:
643:
618:
522:
455:
181:
144:
122:
117:
6975:
6918:
6017:"The latest US recession indicator just dropped — and it's a banger (Prepare for the wurst)"
8809:
8654:
4053:"Does He Pass the Test? 'Stress Test: Reflections on Financial Crises' by Timothy Geithner"
3495:
3339:
3054:
2812:
2393:
2208:
2052:
1991:
1696:
1299:
1066:
561:
375:
220:
8:
9416:
8908:
8763:
8671:
8623:
8591:
8572:
8319:"Pattern of Macroeconomic Indicators Preceding the End of an American Economic Recession"
8318:
7822:
7134:
3044:
3039:
2923:
economic activity reported for employment, industrial production, and consumer spending.
2732:
2717:
2608:
2587:
which, when subtracted from the actual rate of unemployment, can be used to estimate the
2579:
Unemployment is particularly high during a recession. Many economists working within the
2480:
2434:
2426:
2398:
2220:
adopted and is considered robust. The model, developed by economists Arturo Estrella and
2013:
1675:
1468:
expectations that cause savers to begin spending again. Government stimulus spending and
1461:
1457:
1445:
1221:(OECD) defines a recession as a period of at least two years during which the cumulative
1148:
for two consecutive quarters; a decline in industrial production over a six-month period.
771:
648:
483:
445:
186:
149:
4549:
Jason Bram, Robert Rich, and Joshua Abel ... Conference Board's Present Situation Index
3283:
1538:). Monetary policy changes can influence both the frequency and intensity of recessions.
608:
9393:
9378:
9368:
9348:
9343:
9338:
9333:
9327:
8645:
8613:
8419:
7026:
6956:
6438:
4736:
4213:
3717:
Jiří, Mazurek. "On some issues concerning definition of an economic recession." (2012).
3110:
3089:
2912:
2634:
2447:
2212:
2140:
it reflects reduced economic activity, lower consumer demand, and decreased employment.
1639:
1629:
1563:
1280:
1276:
1272:
1268:
1129:
723:
450:
417:
355:
8415:
8034:
7081:
A downturn in the property market, especially in turnover (sales) of properties, is a
4857:
9114:
9108:
9102:
8708:
8681:
8618:
8606:
8567:
8536:
8434:
8338:
7048:
7018:
6948:
6797:
6768:
6741:
6712:
6563:
6442:
6430:
5709:"The near-term forward yield spread as a leading indicator: A less distorted mirror,"
4300:
4247:
4240:
4192:
4031:
3940:
3830:
3736:
3464:
3425:
3386:
3034:
2983:
2104:
1984:
1951:
1739:
Except for the above, there are no known completely reliable predictors. Analysis by
1483:
1460:
as liquidity traps. One remedy to a liquidity trap is expanding the money supply via
1342:
1225:
reaches at least 2% of GDP, and the output gap is at least 1% for at least one year.
964:
926:
798:
786:
743:
588:
583:
307:
232:
7317:
6960:
4740:
4212:
Correia, Isabel; Farhi, Emmanuel; Nicolini, Juan Pablo; Teles, Pedro (August 2012).
3961:
3773:
2483:
believed that government institutions could stimulate aggregate demand in a crisis:
658:
9195:
9190:
9036:
9025:
8686:
8676:
8586:
8546:
8541:
8516:
8511:
8507:
8330:
6938:
6930:
6422:
6317:
6226:
5922:
5918:
5716:
5449:
5445:
4853:
4728:
4188:
4184:
3226:
3084:
3059:
2675:
2658:
2646:
2627:
2530:(NBER) takes a few months to determine if a peak or trough has occurred in the US.
2451:
2402:
2279:
Table: Overview of predictive recession indicators with a simple threshold at zero
2221:
2083:
1909:
1833:
1740:
1659:
1579:
1416:
1409:
1292:
1264:
1249:
1104:, a recession is defined as negative economic growth for two consecutive quarters.
1092:, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales." The
1070:
1054:
959:
954:
921:
906:
886:
733:
718:
244:
215:
203:
193:
129:
109:
79:
74:
8317:
Keilis-Borok, V. I.; Soloviev, A. A.; Intriligator, M. D.; Winberg, F. E. (2008).
7734:
7161:
6140:
5936:
5357:
4842:"Average work hours as a leading economic variable in US manufacturing industries"
3254:
3178:
2454:, the government resorts to unconventional monetary policy to stimulate recovery.
1735:
recessions between March 1967 – August 2019, while triggering only 2 false alarms.
9264:
9254:
9004:
8945:
8940:
8934:
8526:
8177:
8073:
8060:
8041:
7970:
7958:
7906:
7401:
7374:
7324:
7239:
7193:
6581:
6461:
6363:
6343:
6083:
5789:
4601:
4546:
4492:
3115:
2932:
2900:
2783:
2761:
2418:
2410:
2401:
favor the use of expansionary macroeconomic policy during recessions to increase
2229:
2112:
1940:
1779:
1765:
Manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders.
1717:
1621:
1583:
1396:
1112:
1062:
835:
738:
698:
678:
544:
345:
340:
335:
302:
274:
134:
8403:
7286:"More Workers Complain of Bias on the Job, a Trend Linked to Widespread Layoffs"
1730:
When the CFNAI Diffusion Index drops below the value of −0.35, then there is an
1562:
factors that can cause a recession are plentiful: Besides credit risk like e.g.
8553:
8531:
7652:
7634:
6426:
3595:"The economy may look like it's in recession, but we still don't know for sure"
3069:
2757:
2753:
2473:
2266:
2265:
Sahm Recession Indicator signals the start of a recession when the three-month
2161:
1701:
1643:
1595:
1591:
1575:
1559:
1433:
1388:
1351:
1137:
1097:
1093:
1046:
793:
708:
703:
360:
210:
166:
84:
59:
51:
8451:
7685:
3673:
628:
9410:
8981:
8975:
8966:
8960:
8902:
8893:
8884:
8866:
8855:
8843:
8813:
8635:
8342:
7022:
6952:
6434:
6048:"Is a recession coming? Alan Greenspan says the answer is in men's underwear"
5720:
4556:
3468:
3429:
3390:
3014:
2830:
2821:
2688:
growth of 3.0% or less in their view was "equivalent to a global recession".
2559:
2555:
1795:
1709:
1635:
1625:
1615:
1609:
1571:
1530:
1440:
theory that a situation can develop in which interest rates reach near zero (
1400:
1374:
1355:
1332:
1169:
1116:
1085:
916:
728:
713:
688:
673:
668:
663:
638:
633:
297:
259:
156:
8356:
5377:"Stock Market Crash: Expert Warns of 70% Potential Downside for S&P 500"
4940:"Stock Market Crash: Expert Warns of 70% Potential Downside for S&P 500"
4732:
4615:"Gundlach: We don't see a recession on the horizon. But there's bad news..."
4523:"10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity"
4522:
3908:"The Conference Board – Consumer Confidence Survey Press Release – May 2010"
1399:, meaning their assets were worth less than their liabilities. Despite zero
8725:
8718:
8713:
8582:
8577:
8521:
6688:"United States Professional and Business Services: Temporary Help Services"
3029:
2728:
the unemployment level rose and the trade deficit increased significantly.
2701:
2654:
2604:
2547:
2469:
2251:
1713:
1647:
1541:
1524:
1495:
1487:
1469:
1465:
1449:
1404:
1379:
1310:
and South-east Asia experienced U-shaped recessions in 1997–1998, although
1193:
1058:
1050:
823:
748:
693:
653:
440:
312:
279:
269:
227:
104:
99:
30:
This article is about a slowdown in economic activity. For other uses, see
8446:
8438:
7899:
7837:
7327:
Kenneth Rogoff, International Monetary Fund, Financial Times, 5 April 2002
6847:
Jahan, Sarwat; Mahmud, Ahmed Saber; Papageorgiou, Chris (September 2014).
6275:
5594:"Conference Board Leading Economic Index: Continued to Trend Down in June"
3993:"Psychological Biases and Errors that led to historic bubbles and crashes"
2637:
in the United States in the 1930s may have extended the Great Depression.
1695:
Recessions are very challenging to predict. While some variables like the
9135:
8691:
8650:
8596:
8442:
6792:. In MacLean, Brian K.; Bougrine, Hassan; Rochon, Louis-Philippe (eds.).
6322:
6295:"Which Leading Indicators Have Done Better at Signaling Past Recessions?"
6258:"Which Leading Indicators Have Done Better at Signaling Past Recessions?"
6196:
6123:"Which Leading Indicators Have Done Better at Signaling Past Recessions?"
5854:"Which Leading Indicators Have Done Better at Signaling Past Recessions?"
5835:"Which Leading Indicators Have Done Better at Signaling Past Recessions?"
5736:"Which Leading Indicators Have Done Better at Signaling Past Recessions?"
5690:"Which Leading Indicators Have Done Better at Signaling Past Recessions?"
5575:"Which Leading Indicators Have Done Better at Signaling Past Recessions?"
5465:"Which Leading Indicators Have Done Better at Signaling Past Recessions?"
5163:"Which Leading Indicators Have Done Better at Signaling Past Recessions?"
4921:"Which Leading Indicators Have Done Better at Signaling Past Recessions?"
4902:"Which Leading Indicators Have Done Better at Signaling Past Recessions?"
4823:"Which Leading Indicators Have Done Better at Signaling Past Recessions?"
3716:
3279:
3079:
3049:
2520:
2430:
1599:
1567:
1552:
1253:
1245:
1181:
753:
264:
249:
7030:
7006:
6404:
6402:
1943:
less transfer payments. Real median household income is reported by the
1077:). But there is no official definition of a recession, according to the
8919:
8357:"Business Cycle Dating Committee, National Bureau of Economic Research"
8316:
8044:
6 April 2009. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Retrieved 10 March 2020.
7475:
7473:
6943:
5955:"Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey - Comments from survey respondents"
5621:"Forecasting The Next Recession Using The Architectural Billings Index"
4714:"Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables as Leading Indicators"
4713:
3344:
2975:
2588:
2566:
in the 1960s, said that "I call it a Reagan-Volcker-Carter recession."
2406:
1845:
1587:
1222:
683:
613:
549:
500:
5407:"Income and wealth inequality make recessions worse, research reveals"
5037:
U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics
2974:
additional 156,000 jobs had been lost in September. On 29 April 2008,
1868:
business cycles since 1979 by an average of approximately four months.
8730:
8562:
8558:
7952:
Recession unlikely if US economy gets through next two crucial months
6634:
6399:
3733:
The Holy Grail of Macroeconomics-Lessons from Japan's Great Recession
3500:
3019:
2724:
2457:
Gauti B. Eggertsson of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, using a
2422:
2247:
2100:
1899:
1437:
1382:
wrote in 2014 that "the best working hypothesis seems to be that the
1307:
1189:
1038:
781:
623:
139:
94:
8334:
8170:
7909:
Dr. Richard J. Buczynski and Michael Bright, IBISWorld, January 2009
7470:
3817:
Kaur, Rajwant; Sidhu, A.S. (Spring 2012). Sarkar, Siddhartha (ed.).
2546:
is thought to have been caused by the tight-money policy adopted by
2074:
Business confidence surveys and expectations for business condition.
1314:'s eight consecutive quarters of decline should be termed L-shaped.
6934:
6734:"Monetarism and Friedman's Restatement of Quantity Theory of Money"
6409:
Park, Byeong U.; Simar, Léopold; Zelenyuk, Valentin (15 May 2019).
4214:"Unconventional Fiscal Policy at the Zero Bound: Working Paper 698"
4084:"Presentation by Richard Koo – The Age of Balance Sheet Recessions"
2748:
2685:
2650:
2616:
2506:
Some recessions have been anticipated by stock market declines. In
1826:
1822:
1504:
1311:
1211:
1177:
1107:
Governments usually respond to recessions by adopting expansionary
1074:
6356:
5986:"Increased sausage demand could be worrying signal on the economy"
4687:"Grim Stock Signals Piling Up as Wall Street Mulls Recession Odds"
3763:"The world in balance sheet recession: causes, cure, and politics"
2808:
7900:
Economic Crisis: When will it End? IBISWorld Recession Briefing "
6097:"The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S."
5052:"Why the inverted yield curve is typically a recession predictor"
4797:"The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S."
4555:
This article incorporates text from this source, which is in the
3133:
Encarta World English Dictionary [North American Edition]
2633:, with a negative impact on the wider economy; the suspension of
1252:
as net borrowers, with the government budget nearly balanced and
7420:"Global Recession Risk Grows as U.S. "Damage" Spreads. Jan 2008"
7065:"From the subprime to the terrigenous: Recession begins at home"
7007:"Anatomy of the Financial Crisis: Between Keynes and Schumpeter"
6819:"Searching for supply-side effects of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act"
6653:"The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S."
4839:
3851:"Key Indicators 2001: Growth and Change in Asia and the Pacific"
7313:
7311:
7085:
indicator of recession, with a lead time of up to 9 quarters...
3706:. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. 2008.
3525:
2630:
2612:
1671:
1650:, who theorized that financial markets are inherently unstable.
1101:
830:
7838:"Determination of the December 2007 Peak in Economic Activity"
5715:. 2018–055. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
3800:"What is the difference between a recession and a depression?"
3179:"Business Cycle Dating Committee Announcement January 7, 2008"
2494:
Anatomy of the Financial Crisis: Between Keynes and Schumpeter
1972:, confidence surveys like the index of consumer expectations (
8157:
7791:"Business Cycle Dating Procedure: Frequently Asked Questions"
7368:"IMF Predicts Slower World Growth Amid Serious Market Crisis"
5033:"Research Confirms Transportation Index as Leading Indicator"
4509:"US yield curve nears flip with jury out on recession signal"
1962:
Decline in wholesale/retail sales, which are reported by the
1323:
1303:
422:
198:
7761:"Business Cycle Dating Committee Announcement July 19, 2021"
7308:
6840:
5873:"Predicting a Bear Market: 7 Signs and Why it's Tough to Do"
5671:"Predicting a Bear Market: 7 Signs and Why it's Tough to Do"
3622:"What exactly is a recession? Sorting out a confusing topic"
6794:
Aggregate Demand and Employment: International Perspectives
5755:"Yield curve disinversion is the recession signal to watch"
3819:"Global Recession and Its Impact on Foreign Trade in India"
3572:"'Technical Recession' Sets Up Washington War of the Words"
3196:
2450:
reaches the boundary of an interest rate of 0%, called the
1933:
1762:
Manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials.
1751:
However, the following are considered possible predictors:
7973:; Andrews, Edmund L.; Labaton, Stephen (6 December 2008).
7843:. NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee. 11 December 2008.
7515:"World Economic Outlook – April 2009: Crisis and Recovery"
2116:
market uncertainty and that a recession is on the horizon.
2082:
The value of debit balances in broker-dealers’ securities
1790:
Factory output, including factories, mines, and utilities.
7366:
Lall, Subir. International Monetary Fund, 9 April 2008.
6919:"What Fiscal Policy Is Effective at Zero Interest Rates?"
5792:
JPMorgan | The US Economic Outlook | Feb. 2020 | Page 22]
4242:
The Return of Depression Economics and the Crisis of 2008
4211:
2125:
2094:
1663:
1089:
8240:"Fourth quarter 2008 Survey of Professional Forecasters"
7684:. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Archived from
6705:
Stiglitz, Joseph E.; Ocampo, José Antonio, eds. (2008).
6276:"Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)"
5908:
4771:"Leading Economic Indicators and the Oncoming Recession"
2066:
deficit typically worsens strongly ahead of a recession.
1848:, which says that a divergence between the DJTA and the
8242:. Philadelphiafed.org. 17 November 2008. Archived from
7969:
7653:"UK officially in recession for first time in 11 years"
6846:
6790:"Chapter 1: Macroeconomic lessons from the past decade"
6421:(1). Springer Science and Business Media LLC: 379–392.
3340:"An economist explains: What to know about a recession"
2653:
are less affected by recessions than those who rely on
1476:
8218:"U.S. Economy Contracts Most Since the 2001 Recession"
7261:. Economic and Social Research Council. Archived from
6866:
5804:"Jeffrey Gundlach: 6 Signs Recession Is Near, or Here"
5707:
Engstrom, Eric C.; Sharpe, Steven A. (February 2019).
5234:"Jeffrey Gundlach: 6 Signs Recession Is Near, or Here"
4711:
1670:
Decline in external demand: For countries with strong
1219:
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
1117:
increasing government spending and decreasing taxation
1053:). This may be triggered by various events, such as a
7555:, Australian Bureau of Statistics, 27 February 1998,
6764:
Bucking The Deficit: Economic Policymaking In America
6077:
Leading Economic Indicators Suggest U.S. In Recession
5484:"An Economic Warning Sign: RV Shipments Are Slipping"
3649:"Yes, there is an official definition of a recession"
2970:
their pension savings decimated on the stock market.
2558:
took office. Reagan supported that policy. Economist
1335:
factors underlying economic activity. Keynes, in his
1113:
increasing money supply and decreasing interest rates
7975:"U.S. Loses 533,000 Jobs in Biggest Drop Since 1974"
7242:
p. 1. The Saylor Foundation. Retrieved 20 June 2012.
6474:
Estrella, Arturo; Mishkin, Frederic S. (June 1996).
5892:"Recession: When Bad Times Prevail - Back to Basics"
4469:"Recession: When Bad Times Prevail - Back to Basics"
4431:"Recession: When Bad Times Prevail - Back to Basics"
4412:"Recession: When Bad Times Prevail - Back to Basics"
4393:"Recession: When Bad Times Prevail - Back to Basics"
4374:"Recession: When Bad Times Prevail - Back to Basics"
4355:"Recession: When Bad Times Prevail - Back to Basics"
3875:
3674:"Recession | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)"
3553:"Recession: When Bad Times Prevail - Back to Basics"
3161:"Recession: When Bad Times Prevail - Back to Basics"
1871:
Light truck sales are seen as a recession predictor.
1720:, to try to predict the possibility of a recession:
1338:
The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money
8154:"Fragile economy improves but not out of woods yet"
7330:
6698:
6476:"The Yield Curve as a Predictor of U.S. Recessions"
4318:
4316:
3494:Lakshman, Achuthan; Banerji, Anirvan (7 May 2008).
2804:
Recessions in the United States – 1930 through 2021
2615:, which may create a mini-recession in the region.
2372:
Retail Indicator: Decline In Wholesale/Retail Sales
2164:
to see men’s underwear as a key economic predictor.
1658:Adverse events: Unexpected major world events like
7676:
7674:
6817:Gale, William G.; Haldeman, Claire (6 July 2021).
4488:"Why everyone was so wrong about the 2023 economy"
4239:
3990:
3926:
3418:"U.S. to Broaden the Base Of Consumer Price Index"
2433:economists promote tax cuts to stimulate business
2097:is a critical commodity input for many industries.
1646:. This term is named after the American economist
8063:CNN/Money. 3 April 2009. Retrieved 10 March 2020.
6873:Jahan, Sarwat; Papageorgiou, Chris (March 2014).
6872:
6810:
6408:
4286:
4205:
2911:Since then, the NBER has also declared a 2-month
9408:
7509:
7507:
7422:. Bloomberg L.P. 28 January 2008. Archived from
7130:"Recession Predictions and Investment Decisions"
6533:Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
5435:
4324:"A Minsky Meltdown: Lessons for Central Bankers"
4313:
4219:. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. p. 1
3305:Bonham, Mark S.; Poulin, Jessica (6 July 2023).
2626:Recessions have also provided opportunities for
8266:"Text of the NBER's statement on the recession"
7671:
6910:
6849:"What Is Keynesian Economics? – Back to Basics"
6473:
4595:Consumer Confidence Drops – Why Does It Matter?
4268:"How Much of the World is in a Liquidity Trap?"
3933:Akerlof, George A.; Shiller, Robert J. (2010).
3493:
2782:global pandemic, the first recession since the
1974:University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
1494:In April 2009, U.S. Federal Reserve Vice Chair
1486:and can cause or deepen a recession. Economist
6892:
6704:
5801:
5706:
5231:
5189:New York University's Stern School of Business
4887:New York University's Stern School of Business
4328:Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco speeches
4168:
3932:
2012:Housing starts and construction, specifically
8473:
7504:
6754:
6708:Capital Market Liberalization and Development
6197:"Weekly Economic Index (Lewis-Mertens-Stock)"
5889:
4466:
4428:
4409:
4390:
4371:
4352:
4292:
4183:. Palgrave Macmillan UK. pp. 7929–7936.
3810:
3550:
3158:
3136:. Microsoft Corporation. 2007. Archived from
2355:Employment Indicator: Temporary Help Services
2184:The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas posts the
1534:leading to a recession (creating a so called
1286:
1172:, the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the
1018:
855:
8191:"Gross Domestic Product: Third quarter 2008"
7635:"Eurozone recession deepened at end of 2012"
7584:, Melbourne, 2 December 2006, archived from
6816:
6635:"U.S. 10 Year-3 Month Treasury Yield Spread"
6366:(March 2006). FEDs Working Paper No. 2006-7.
4270:. Krugman.blogs.nytimes.com. 17 March 2010.
4231:
4146:"Debt, deleveraging, and the liquidity trap"
3700:"OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2008 Issue 2"
3640:
3526:"Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions"
3304:
3270:
3268:
2321:Leading Indicator: US Leading Economic Index
2173:Index of Leading (Economic) Indicators (LEI)
1146:Declines in real gross national income (GNI)
7390:
7388:
7386:
7384:
7382:
7256:
7067:. Land Values Research Group. 2 June 2009.
6494:"Labor Model Predicts Lower Recession Odds"
5802:Wisenberg Brin, Dinah (11 September 2024).
5232:Wisenberg Brin, Dinah (11 September 2024).
4293:Lipsey, Richard G.; Harbury, Colin (1992).
3823:International Journal of Afro-Asian Studies
3797:
3726:
3724:
3647:Loe, Megan; Lewis, Brandon (28 July 2022).
3520:
3518:
1978:Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index
1151:In terms of depth – A 1.5% decline in real
8480:
8466:
8452:Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions
6998:
6976:"Opinion – Block Those Economic Metaphors"
6916:
6781:
6725:
6383:. Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 2020.
5937:"GDPNow - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta"
5911:Journal of International Money and Finance
4174:
3939:. Princeton University Press. p. 23.
3756:
3754:
3752:
3457:"Recession: Some Criteria Missing, So Far"
2962:significantly contributed to a recession.
2942:details the many elements of this period.
2338:Employment Indicator: Full Time Employment
2304:Yield Curve Indicator: 10y-3m Yield Spread
2186:Texas Index of Leading Economic Indicators
2008:Housing and non-residential construction:
1361:
1025:
1011:
862:
848:
8003:
7709:"It's official: Recession since Dec. '07"
7395:Global Economic Slump Challenges Policies
7257:Vaitilingam, Romesh (17 September 2009).
6942:
6898:
6525:"Direct Stimulus Payments to Individuals"
6357:The Yield Curve and Predicting Recessions
6321:
5890:Claessens, Stijn; Kose, M. Ayhan (2011).
5050:Smith, Stacey Vanek (12 September 2024).
4840:Stuart M. Glosser, Lonnie Golden (1997).
4506:
4467:Claessens, Stijn; Kose, M. Ayhan (2011).
4429:Claessens, Stijn; Kose, M. Ayhan (2011).
4410:Claessens, Stijn; Kose, M. Ayhan (2011).
4391:Claessens, Stijn; Kose, M. Ayhan (2011).
4372:Claessens, Stijn; Kose, M. Ayhan (2011).
4353:Claessens, Stijn; Kose, M. Ayhan (2011).
3816:
3735:. John Wiley & Sons (Asia) Pte. Ltd.
3551:Claessens, Stijn; Kose, M. Ayhan (2011).
3265:
3159:Claessens, Stijn; Kose, M. Ayhan (2011).
1096:has adopted a similar definition. In the
8454:The National Bureau Of Economic Research
7737:. BBC News – Business. 29 October 2009.
7438:
7379:
7252:
7250:
7248:
6760:
6377:"The Yield Curve as a Leading Indicator"
6045:
6014:
5752:
5293:
4447:
4299:. Oxford University Press. p. 294.
4181:The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics
4015:
3721:
3646:
3619:
3528:. National Bureau of Economic Research.
3515:
2807:
2799:
2774:List of recessions in the United Kingdom
1674:sectors, a decline in demand from major
1317:
8323:Journal of Pattern Recognition Research
8215:
8098:
7920:
7706:
7612:, Australian Broadcasting Corporation,
7283:
7096:
6973:
6917:Eggertsson, Gauti B. (1 January 2011).
6796:. Edward Elgar Publishing. p. 29.
6280:FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
6231:FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
6227:"Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities"
6201:FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
5983:
5870:
5713:Finance and Economics Discussion Series
5668:
5374:
5324:
5080:
4937:
4237:
4143:
4112:
4050:
3959:
3910:. Conference-board.org. 25 March 2010.
3749:
3666:
3376:
3065:List of recessions in the United States
2952:United States housing market correction
2796:List of recessions in the United States
2387:
2254:, was published in October 2019 by the
1999:personal consumption expenditure growth
1841:Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA)
1511:
14:
9409:
8300:"Daniel Gross: The Recession is Over?"
7682:"Percent change from preceding period"
7414:
7412:
7410:
7284:Rampell, Catherine (11 January 2011).
7210:Church, George J. (23 November 1981).
7209:
6875:"What Is Monetarism? – Back to Basics"
6311:
6292:
6255:
6120:
5851:
5832:
5814:from the original on 17 September 2024
5733:
5687:
5649:
5618:
5572:
5462:
5244:from the original on 17 September 2024
5179:
5160:
5111:
5093:from the original on 13 September 2024
5083:"How Bad Is The U.S. Economy In 2019?"
5062:from the original on 13 September 2024
4918:
4899:
4877:
4820:
4768:
4621:from the original on 25 September 2019
3960:Shiller, Robert J. (27 January 2009).
3791:
3569:
3337:
1945:U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
1778:(Manufacturing Services, Chicago) and
1498:discussed these paradoxes: "Once this
1057:, an external trade shock, an adverse
172:Measures of national income and output
8461:
8413:
8294:
8276:from the original on 14 November 2010
8216:Chandra, Shobhana (30 October 2008).
8125:
7830:
7819:
7605:
7531:from the original on 31 December 2010
7492:from the original on 28 February 2019
7479:
7348:from the original on 21 February 2009
7245:
7127:
7004:
6787:
6731:
6615:from the original on 1 September 2024
5902:
5631:from the original on 29 November 2022
5481:
5417:from the original on 13 December 2019
5387:from the original on 1 September 2024
5355:
5049:
5013:from the original on 13 December 2019
4950:from the original on 1 September 2024
4081:
4028:Reader's Guide to the Social Sciences
3972:from the original on 11 February 2020
3876:Samuelson, Robert J. (14 June 2010).
3249:
3247:
998:Industrialization in the Soviet Union
8006:"U.S. lost 2.6 million jobs in 2008"
7881:from the original on 7 December 2017
7868:
7559:from the original on 16 October 2015
7168:from the original on 2 February 2008
6740:. S. Chand Publishing. p. 527.
6670:"United States Full Time Employment"
6561:
6522:
6480:The Federal Reserve Bank of New York
4981:from the original on 8 February 2020
4846:International Journal of Forecasting
4604:Forbes. 27 June 2019. Brad McMillan.
4485:
4063:from the original on 5 November 2015
4021:
3878:"Our economy's crisis of confidence"
3761:Koo, Richard C. (12 December 2011).
3454:
3415:
2528:National Bureau of Economic Research
2275:Simple Recession Indicator Tracker:
2226:National Bureau of Economic Research
2059:The S&P 500 and BBB bond spread.
1477:Paradoxes of thrift and deleveraging
1174:National Bureau of Economic Research
8197:from the original on 14 August 2018
8107:from the original on 6 October 2013
8080:from the original on 6 October 2009
8004:Uchitelle, Louis (9 January 2009).
7933:from the original on 11 August 2019
7923:"Employment Falls for Second Month"
7921:Andrews, Edmund L. (7 March 2008).
7715:from the original on 14 August 2021
7659:from the original on 12 August 2020
7407:
7047:, 3rd, New York: McGraw-Hill, 388.
6986:from the original on 20 August 2019
6899:Skaperdas, Arsenios (7 July 2017).
6602:
6504:from the original on 19 August 2020
6058:from the original on 29 August 2024
5996:from the original on 29 August 2024
5965:from the original on 29 August 2024
5941:The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
5765:from the original on 30 August 2024
5554:from the original on 24 August 2024
5524:from the original on 24 August 2024
5375:Edwards, William (31 August 2024).
5337:from the original on 29 August 2024
5306:from the original on 29 August 2024
5275:from the original on 27 August 2024
5262:
5213:from the original on 24 August 2024
5142:from the original on 24 August 2024
4968:
4938:Edwards, William (31 August 2024).
4689:. Bloomberg L.P. 25 November 2018.
4334:from the original on 5 January 2013
3760:
3730:
3680:. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2022
3592:
3377:Shiskin, Julius (1 December 1974).
3352:from the original on 14 August 2024
3319:from the original on 23 August 2024
1850:Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA)
24:
8784:British credit crisis of 1772–1773
8130:. Clevelandfed.org. Archived from
7850:from the original on 19 April 2009
7771:from the original on 26 April 2022
7707:Isidore, Chris (1 December 2008).
7162:"Economy puts Republicans at risk"
7099:"Why Home Prices May Keep Falling"
7097:Shiller, Robert J. (6 June 2009).
6974:Krugman, Paul (13 December 2010).
6543:from the original on 31 March 2020
6102:from the original on 4 August 2024
6046:Goodkind, Nicole (26 March 2022).
6015:Ashworth, Louis (27 August 2024).
5959:The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
5600:from the original on 4 August 2024
5325:Edwards, William (3 August 2024).
4802:from the original on 4 August 2024
4777:from the original on 4 August 2024
4721:Review of Economics and Statistics
4617:Yahoo! Finance. 14 February 2019.
4507:Barbuscia, Davide (29 July 2024).
4448:Cochrane, John (7 December 2022).
4274:from the original on 24 April 2020
4156:from the original on 21 April 2021
4144:Krugman, Paul (18 November 2010).
4125:from the original on 15 April 2021
3991:How to be an Adult (13 May 2020).
3888:from the original on 26 March 2020
3496:"The risk of redefining recession"
3416:Dale, Edwin L. Jr (6 April 1974).
3397:from the original on 25 March 2020
3244:
3207:from the original on 29 April 2022
2945:
2856: Effective Federal Funds Rate
2516:were not followed by a recession.
2425:economists may advocate increased
2168:Overview of recession indicators:
988:Economic history of the Arab world
25:
9438:
8497:Commonwealth of Nations countries
8425:Concise Encyclopedia of Economics
8383:
8367:from the original on 2 March 2021
8099:Goldman, David (9 January 2009).
8054:2 million jobs lost so far in '09
8016:from the original on 1 March 2020
7985:from the original on 9 April 2009
7801:from the original on 29 July 2022
7741:from the original on 28 July 2020
7338:"The world economy Bad, or worse"
7296:from the original on 23 July 2016
7142:from the original on 28 July 2020
7128:Sloan, Allan (11 December 2007).
7071:from the original on 12 June 2009
6207:from the original on 19 July 2021
5619:Mackie, Kevin (7 December 2018).
5482:Raice, Shayndi (19 August 2019).
4750:from the original on 6 April 2020
4693:from the original on 4 March 2020
4003:from the original on 28 July 2020
3914:from the original on 3 March 2020
3628:from the original on 27 July 2022
3601:from the original on 28 July 2022
3532:from the original on 5 March 2020
3475:from the original on 27 July 2022
3436:from the original on 27 July 2022
3219:
3189:
2767:
2742:
2649:of people dependent on wages and
2640:
2179:Euro Area Leading Indicator (ALI)
2152:Unorthodox Recession Indicators:
2042:Receiver Operating Characteristic
2021:Architecture Billings Index (ABI)
1427:
1232:instead of decline of total GDP.
8430:Library of Economics and Liberty
8349:
8310:
8288:
8258:
8232:
8209:
8183:
8164:
8156:. Yahoo! Finance. Archived from
8146:
8126:Meyer, Brent (16 October 2008).
8119:
8092:
8066:
8047:
8028:
7997:
7963:
7945:
7914:
7893:
7869:Izzo, Phil (20 September 2010).
7862:
7813:
7783:
7753:
7727:
7700:
7645:
7627:
7616:from the original on 3 June 2020
7599:
7570:
7543:
7458:from the original on 25 May 2013
7360:
7277:
7226:
7203:
7180:
7154:
7121:
7109:from the original on 3 July 2020
7090:
7057:
7037:
6967:
6680:
6662:
6645:
6627:
6596:
6574:
6555:
6516:
6486:
6467:
6449:
6387:from the original on 14 May 2017
6369:
6349:
6330:
6305:
6286:
6268:
6249:
6219:
6189:
6177:from the original on 28 May 2020
6159:
6133:
6114:
6089:
6070:
6039:
6008:
5984:Harring, Alex (26 August 2024).
5977:
5947:
5929:
5883:
5864:
5845:
5826:
5795:
5777:
5746:
5727:
5700:
5591:
5494:from the original on 8 June 2020
5356:Payne, Charles (7 August 2024).
5081:Conerly, Bill (15 August 2019).
4667:from the original on 14 May 2020
4550:
4486:Peck, Emily (22 December 2023).
4113:Krugman, Paul (17 August 2010).
4082:White, Gregory (14 April 2010).
3962:"Animal Spirits Depend on Trust"
3620:Jacobsen, Louis (26 July 2022).
3455:Silk, Leonard (28 August 1974).
3338:Deveau, Denise (3 August 2022).
2915:for February 2020 – April 2020.
2789:
2533:
2217:Federal Reserve Bank of New York
2078:Margin of stock market traders:
1208:Recessions in the United Kingdom
829:
817:
58:
8493:recessions in the United States
8101:"Worst year for jobs since '45"
8035:Unemployment rate in March 2009
7196:Prepared by: Democratic staff,
6603:Fox, Matthew (31 August 2024).
6582:"Sahm Rule Recession Indicator"
6337:Grading Bonds on Inverted Curve
6299:Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
6262:Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
6237:from the original on 2 May 2020
6127:Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
5858:Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
5839:Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
5753:McGeever, Jamie (5 June 2024).
5740:Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
5694:Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
5681:
5662:
5643:
5612:
5585:
5579:Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
5566:
5536:
5506:
5475:
5469:Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
5456:
5429:
5399:
5368:
5349:
5318:
5294:Adinolfi, Joseph (7 May 2024).
5287:
5263:Fox, Matthew (26 August 2024).
5256:
5225:
5195:
5173:
5167:Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
5154:
5124:
5105:
5074:
5043:
5025:
4993:
4962:
4931:
4925:Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
4912:
4906:Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
4893:
4871:
4833:
4827:Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
4814:
4789:
4762:
4712:A Estrella, FS Mishkin (1995).
4705:
4679:
4647:
4633:
4607:
4588:
4562:
4533:
4515:
4500:
4479:
4460:
4441:
4422:
4403:
4384:
4365:
4346:
4260:
4246:. W.W. Norton Company Limited.
4137:
4106:
4094:from the original on 5 May 2021
4075:
4044:
3984:
3953:
3900:
3869:
3843:
3829:(1). Universal-Publishers: 62.
3710:
3692:
3613:
3586:
3563:
3544:
3487:
3448:
3409:
3370:
3364:
3331:
3255:"Q&A: What is a recession?"
2940:timeline of the Great Recession
2574:
2569:
2501:
2496:, Economic and Political Weekly
1896:U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
1862:U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
8074:"Employment Situation Summary"
7606:Janda, Michael (3 June 2020),
7552:Australian Economic Indicators
7318:The Recession that Almost Was.
6145:Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
5923:10.1016/j.jimonfin.2013.05.009
5871:Schmidt, Dan (17 April 2024).
5669:Schmidt, Dan (17 April 2024).
5450:10.1016/j.worlddev.2015.10.038
4189:10.1057/978-1-349-95189-5_2482
4051:Krugman, Paul (10 July 2014).
3570:Anstey, Chris (28 July 2022).
3298:
3227:"The CEPR and NBER Approaches"
3171:
3152:
3123:
3116:Merriam-Webster.com Dictionary
3103:
2235:The three-month change in the
2016:for new private housing units.
1890:Decreasing payroll employment.
1331:has been used to describe the
1122:
777:Publications in macroeconomics
13:
1:
8171:Why it's worse than you think
7871:"Recession Over in June 2009"
7735:"US economy out of recession"
7578:"Reasons for 1990s Recession"
7011:Economic and Political Weekly
6586:Federal Reserve Economic Data
4858:10.1016/S0169-2070(96)00725-X
4527:Federal Reserve Economic Data
4296:First Principles of Economics
4175:Eggertsson, Gauti B. (2018).
4026:. In Michie, Jonathan (ed.).
3798:Saul Eslake (November 2008).
3096:
3075:Stock market crashes in India
2926:
2439:Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017
2260:Federal Reserve Economic Data
2215:. Another model developed by
1690:
1662:and geopolitical events like
1482:simultaneously is called the
1235:
7482:"What's a Global Recession?"
7480:Davis, Bob (22 April 2009).
6523:Sahm, Claudia (6 May 2019).
3276:"Glossary of Treasury terms"
2956:United States housing bubble
2707:
2585:natural rate of unemployment
2564:Council of Economic Advisers
2514:Dow Jones Industrial Average
1228:Recession can be defined as
7:
9239:1997 Asian financial crisis
8872:Civil War-era United States
8414:Moore, Geoffrey H. (2002).
7655:. The BBC. 12 August 2020.
6711:. OUP Oxford. p. 360.
5896:International Monetary Fund
5182:"Business-Cycle Indicators"
5001:"Cass Freight Index Report"
4880:"Business-Cycle Indicators"
4473:International Monetary Fund
4435:International Monetary Fund
4416:International Monetary Fund
4397:International Monetary Fund
4378:International Monetary Fund
4359:International Monetary Fund
4024:"Accounting, balance sheet"
3770:Real-World Economics Review
3557:International Monetary Fund
3165:International Monetary Fund
3010:1991 Indian economic crisis
3002:
2850: 3 month Treasury Bond
2838: 10 Year Treasury Bond
2682:International Monetary Fund
2599:
2409:, exemplified by economist
1745:International Monetary Fund
1198:Bureau of Economic Analysis
10:
9443:
9015:Post–World War I recession
8835:Post-Napoleonic Depression
7043:Siegel, Jeremy J. (2002).
6923:NBER Macroeconomics Annual
6761:Thornton, Saranna (2018).
6427:10.1007/s00181-019-01708-2
3593:Cox, Jeff (28 July 2022).
2930:
2895:March 2001 – November 2001
2844: 2 Year Treasury Bond
2815:correlation to recessions
2793:
2771:
2673:
2664:
2429:to spark economic growth.
2391:
2262:(FRED). It is defined as:
2213:Fed's overnight funds rate
2144:GDP per capita contraction
1391:as it pays down its debt.
1365:
1290:
1287:Type of recession or shape
1135:Bureau of Labor Statistics
993:Economy of the Inca Empire
528:New neoclassical synthesis
511:Real business-cycle theory
32:Recession (disambiguation)
29:
27:Business cycle contraction
9253:
9189:
9134:
9088:
9003:
8925:2nd Industrial Revolution
8918:
8865:
8858:(1836–1838 and 1839–1843)
8774:1st Industrial Revolution
8772:
8741:
8542:Price-and-wage stickiness
8503:
8404:Resources in your library
8180:, 16 June 2008, Newsweek.
7238:12 September 2012 at the
7212:"Ready for a Real Downer"
6856:Finance & Development
6767:. Routledge. p. 30.
5544:"Recessionary Indicators"
5514:"Recessionary Indicators"
5203:"Recessionary Indicators"
5132:"Recessionary Indicators"
4030:. Routledge. p. 11.
3853:. ADB.org. Archived from
3312:The Canadian Encyclopedia
2901:December 2007 – June 2009
2883:July 1981 – November 1982
2669:
2413:, would favor the use of
2256:St. Louis Federal Reserve
1706:2021–2023 inflation surge
1616:Interest rate distortions
1442:zero interest-rate policy
1230:decline of GDP per capita
9206:1990s United States boom
8994:Financial crisis of 1914
8076:. Bls.gov. 2 July 2010.
7373:28 February 2009 at the
7323:12 December 2008 at the
7164:. BBC. 29 January 2008.
7005:Nayak, Pulin B. (2009).
5721:10.17016/FEDS.2018.055r1
5652:"Bear Market Indicators"
5114:"Bear Market Indicators"
4852:(2). Elsevier: 175–195.
4115:"Notes On Koo (Wonkish)"
4057:New York Review of Books
3772:(58): 19. Archived from
3130:"Recession definition".
2960:subprime mortgage crisis
2822:30 year mortgage average
2764:economies all affected.
2250:, named after economist
2248:Sahm Recession Indicator
2132:Gross Domestic Product:
1678:can trigger a recession.
533:Saltwater and freshwater
9021:Depression of 1920–1921
8953:Depression of 1882–1885
8867:Early Victorian Britain
8602:Real and nominal values
8059:11 January 2020 at the
7875:The Wall Street Journal
7486:The Wall Street Journal
7198:Senate Budget Committee
7192:4 February 2011 at the
6882:Finance and Development
6498:The Wall Street Journal
5788:6 December 2020 at the
5488:The Wall Street Journal
4733:10.1162/003465398557320
3966:The Wall Street Journal
2878:considered recessions:
2509:Stocks for the Long Run
2070:Business Expectations:
1786:Industrial Production:
1368:Balance sheet recession
1362:Balance sheet recession
1144:In terms of duration –
893:Particular histories of
461:International economics
386:Overlapping generations
9126:Recession of 1969–1970
9121:Recession of 1960–1961
9080:Recession of 1937–1938
8176:1 October 2009 at the
7957:12 August 2011 at the
7524:. IMF. 24 April 2009.
7451:. IMF. 16 April 2013.
7400:9 January 2020 at the
6293:Kelley, David (2019).
6256:Kelley, David (2019).
6121:Kelley, David (2019).
5852:Kelley, David (2019).
5833:Kelley, David (2019).
5734:Kelley, David (2019).
5688:Kelley, David (2019).
5573:Kelley, David (2019).
5463:Kelley, David (2019).
5180:Backus, David (2024).
5161:Kelley, David (2019).
4919:Kelley, David (2019).
4900:Kelley, David (2019).
4878:Backus, David (2024).
4821:Kelley, David (2019).
4238:Krugman, Paul (2009).
2954:(a consequence of the
2889:July 1990 – March 1991
2874:
2805:
2583:argue that there is a
2499:
2271:
2126:Volatility Index (VIX)
1887:Decreasing job growth.
1834:Baltic Dry Index (BDI)
1697:(inverted) yield curve
1348:availability heuristic
1133:, Commissioner of the
1109:macroeconomic policies
804:Mathematical economics
555:Modern monetary theory
318:Universal basic income
9244:Early 2000s recession
9211:Early 1990s recession
9163:Early 1980s recession
8743:Commercial revolution
8641:Nominal interest rate
8363:. 20 September 2010.
8040:6 August 2020 at the
6460:19 March 2020 at the
6355:Wright, Jonathan H.,
6141:"Texas Leading Index"
4600:18 March 2020 at the
4022:Jupe, Robert (2014).
3731:Koo, Richard (2009).
3307:"Recession in Canada"
2831:30 Year Treasury Bond
2813:Inverted yield curves
2811:
2803:
2581:neoclassical paradigm
2552:Federal Reserve Board
2485:
2263:
1970:Consumer expectations
1732:increased probability
1500:massive credit crunch
1403:and expansion of the
1318:Psychological aspects
1300:double-dip recessions
1186:industrial production
1153:gross national income
1127:In a 1974 article by
1061:, the bursting of an
983:Economic antisemitism
644:Wesley Clair Mitchell
619:Thomas Robert Malthus
456:Development economics
8810:Copper Panic of 1789
7609:Australian Recession
6732:Ahuja, H.L. (2019).
6656:The Conference Board
6362:28 July 2020 at the
5650:Fisher, Ken (2024).
5112:Fisher, Ken (2024).
4769:Ozyildirim, Ataman.
4727:. MIT Press: 45–61.
3055:Hindu rate of growth
2399:Keynesian economists
2394:Stabilization policy
2388:Government responses
2209:inverted yield curve
2053:inverted yield curve
1992:recreational vehicle
1768:Manufacturing sales.
1512:Causes of recessions
381:Ramsey–Cass–Koopmans
221:Liquidity preference
9146:1973–1975 recession
9090:Post–WWII expansion
8764:Great Frost of 1709
8592:Neutrality of money
8573:Classical dichotomy
8489:Economic expansions
8420:Henderson, David R.
8272:. 1 December 2008.
7905:14 May 2011 at the
7823:The Washington Post
7641:. 14 February 2013.
7522:Box 1.1 (pp. 11–14)
7135:The Washington Post
6788:Mason, J.W (2020).
6738:Macroeconomics, 20e
6500:. 28 January 2008.
6415:Empirical Economics
6233:. 1 February 1967.
6082:6 July 2009 at the
5039:. 15 December 2017.
4545:14 May 2020 at the
4454:Stanford University
3882:The Washington Post
3045:Flooding the market
3040:Economic stagnation
2967:2007–2009 recession
2718:foreign investments
2488:multiplier process.
2481:John Maynard Keynes
2474:indebted households
2427:government spending
2290:Recession Threshold
2287:Recession Indicator
2280:
1875:Corporate Profits:
1802:Chemical Activity:
1548:Financial factors:
1462:quantitative easing
1458:Japan's lost decade
1454:U.S. 2009 recession
1446:pushing on a string
1261:economic depression
1065:, or a large-scale
836:Business portal
772:Macroeconomic model
649:John Maynard Keynes
446:Economic statistics
391:General equilibrium
9328:COVID-19 recession
8988:Panic of 1910–1911
8820:Panic of 1796–1797
8646:Real interest rate
8614:Economic expansion
8010:The New York Times
7979:The New York Times
7927:The New York Times
7404:IMF. January 2009.
7344:. 9 October 2008.
7290:The New York Times
7187:The Bush Recession
7103:The New York Times
6980:The New York Times
6342:7 May 2019 at the
6323:10.7910/DVN/AWWQPN
6203:. 5 January 2008.
5961:. 26 August 2024.
5656:Fisher Investments
5118:Fisher Investments
4119:The New York Times
3779:on 10 January 2020
3461:The New York Times
3422:The New York Times
3383:The New York Times
3286:on 2 November 2012
3119:. Merriam-Webster.
3090:COVID-19 recession
2913:COVID-19 recession
2875:
2806:
2635:competition policy
2562:, chairman of the
2550:, chairman of the
2448:federal funds rate
2278:
1964:U.S. Census Bureau
1630:stock market crash
1564:concentration risk
1520:Economic factors:
1130:The New York Times
974:Prominent examples
724:Edward C. Prescott
451:Monetary economics
9404:
9403:
9115:Recession of 1958
9109:Recession of 1953
9103:Recession of 1949
8800:Thirteen Colonies
8607:Velocity of money
8537:Paradox of thrift
8390:Library resources
8134:on 5 October 2008
7688:on 14 August 2018
7265:on 2 January 2010
7233:Unemployment Rate
7222:on 23 April 2008.
7053:978-0-07-137048-6
6803:978-1-78643-205-6
6774:978-0-429-97052-8
6747:978-93-5283-732-8
6718:978-0-19-923058-7
6346:By Michael Hudson
6314:Harvard Dataverse
6027:on 29 August 2024
5943:. 10 August 2024.
5438:World Development
4969:Premack, Rachel.
4330:. 16 April 2009.
4306:978-0-297-82120-5
4253:978-0-393-07101-6
4198:978-1-349-95189-5
4037:978-1-135-93226-8
3946:978-1-4008-3472-3
3742:978-0-470-82494-8
3704:oecd-ilibrary.org
3185:. 7 January 2008.
3035:Economic collapse
2984:unemployment rate
2680:According to the
2542:For example, the
2385:
2384:
2375:YoY change < 0
2358:YoY change < 0
2341:YoY change < 0
2324:YoY change < 0
2241:unemployment rate
2237:unemployment rate
2105:consumer spending
1985:consumer spending
1952:income inequality
1928:Personal Income:
1829:volumes of goods.
1660:natural disasters
1610:Credit tightening
1484:paradox of thrift
1343:Robert J. Shiller
1035:
1034:
872:
871:
799:Political economy
754:N. Gregory Mankiw
744:Thomas J. Sargent
589:Market monetarism
403:Endogenous growth
233:National accounts
16:(Redirected from
9434:
9196:Great Regression
9191:Great Moderation
9037:Great Depression
9026:Roaring Twenties
8547:Underconsumption
8517:Effective demand
8508:Aggregate demand
8482:
8475:
8468:
8459:
8458:
8433:
8428:(1st ed.).
8377:
8376:
8374:
8372:
8353:
8347:
8346:
8314:
8308:
8307:
8298:(13 July 2009).
8292:
8286:
8285:
8283:
8281:
8262:
8256:
8255:
8253:
8251:
8236:
8230:
8229:
8227:
8225:
8213:
8207:
8206:
8204:
8202:
8187:
8181:
8168:
8162:
8161:
8150:
8144:
8143:
8141:
8139:
8123:
8117:
8116:
8114:
8112:
8096:
8090:
8089:
8087:
8085:
8070:
8064:
8051:
8045:
8032:
8026:
8025:
8023:
8021:
8001:
7995:
7994:
7992:
7990:
7971:Uchitelle, Louis
7967:
7961:
7949:
7943:
7942:
7940:
7938:
7918:
7912:
7897:
7891:
7890:
7888:
7886:
7866:
7860:
7859:
7857:
7855:
7849:
7842:
7834:
7828:
7827:
7817:
7811:
7810:
7808:
7806:
7787:
7781:
7780:
7778:
7776:
7767:. 19 July 2021.
7757:
7751:
7750:
7748:
7746:
7731:
7725:
7724:
7722:
7720:
7704:
7698:
7697:
7695:
7693:
7678:
7669:
7668:
7666:
7664:
7649:
7643:
7642:
7631:
7625:
7624:
7623:
7621:
7603:
7597:
7596:
7595:
7593:
7588:on 12 April 2014
7574:
7568:
7567:
7566:
7564:
7547:
7541:
7540:
7538:
7536:
7530:
7519:
7511:
7502:
7501:
7499:
7497:
7477:
7468:
7467:
7465:
7463:
7457:
7450:
7442:
7436:
7435:
7433:
7431:
7426:on 21 March 2010
7416:
7405:
7392:
7377:
7364:
7358:
7357:
7355:
7353:
7334:
7328:
7315:
7306:
7305:
7303:
7301:
7281:
7275:
7274:
7272:
7270:
7254:
7243:
7230:
7224:
7223:
7218:. Archived from
7207:
7201:
7184:
7178:
7177:
7175:
7173:
7158:
7152:
7151:
7149:
7147:
7125:
7119:
7118:
7116:
7114:
7094:
7088:
7087:
7078:
7076:
7061:
7055:
7041:
7035:
7034:
7002:
6996:
6995:
6993:
6991:
6971:
6965:
6964:
6946:
6914:
6908:
6907:
6905:
6896:
6890:
6889:
6879:
6870:
6864:
6863:
6853:
6844:
6838:
6837:
6835:
6833:
6823:
6814:
6808:
6807:
6785:
6779:
6778:
6758:
6752:
6751:
6729:
6723:
6722:
6702:
6696:
6695:
6684:
6678:
6677:
6666:
6660:
6659:
6649:
6643:
6642:
6631:
6625:
6624:
6622:
6620:
6609:Business Insider
6600:
6594:
6593:
6578:
6572:
6571:
6559:
6553:
6552:
6550:
6548:
6542:
6529:
6520:
6514:
6513:
6511:
6509:
6490:
6484:
6483:
6471:
6465:
6453:
6447:
6446:
6406:
6397:
6396:
6394:
6392:
6373:
6367:
6353:
6347:
6334:
6328:
6327:
6325:
6309:
6303:
6302:
6290:
6284:
6283:
6282:. 7 August 2024.
6272:
6266:
6265:
6253:
6247:
6246:
6244:
6242:
6223:
6217:
6216:
6214:
6212:
6193:
6187:
6186:
6184:
6182:
6163:
6157:
6156:
6154:
6152:
6147:. 22 August 2024
6137:
6131:
6130:
6118:
6112:
6111:
6109:
6107:
6093:
6087:
6074:
6068:
6067:
6065:
6063:
6043:
6037:
6036:
6034:
6032:
6023:. Archived from
6012:
6006:
6005:
6003:
6001:
5981:
5975:
5974:
5972:
5970:
5951:
5945:
5944:
5933:
5927:
5926:
5906:
5900:
5899:
5887:
5881:
5880:
5868:
5862:
5861:
5849:
5843:
5842:
5830:
5824:
5823:
5821:
5819:
5799:
5793:
5781:
5775:
5774:
5772:
5770:
5750:
5744:
5743:
5731:
5725:
5724:
5704:
5698:
5697:
5685:
5679:
5678:
5666:
5660:
5659:
5647:
5641:
5640:
5638:
5636:
5616:
5610:
5609:
5607:
5605:
5592:Nash, Jennifer.
5589:
5583:
5582:
5570:
5564:
5563:
5561:
5559:
5540:
5534:
5533:
5531:
5529:
5510:
5504:
5503:
5501:
5499:
5479:
5473:
5472:
5460:
5454:
5453:
5433:
5427:
5426:
5424:
5422:
5403:
5397:
5396:
5394:
5392:
5381:Business Insider
5372:
5366:
5365:
5353:
5347:
5346:
5344:
5342:
5331:Business Insider
5322:
5316:
5315:
5313:
5311:
5291:
5285:
5284:
5282:
5280:
5269:Business Insider
5260:
5254:
5253:
5251:
5249:
5229:
5223:
5222:
5220:
5218:
5199:
5193:
5192:
5186:
5177:
5171:
5170:
5158:
5152:
5151:
5149:
5147:
5128:
5122:
5121:
5109:
5103:
5102:
5100:
5098:
5078:
5072:
5071:
5069:
5067:
5047:
5041:
5040:
5029:
5023:
5022:
5020:
5018:
5012:
5005:
4997:
4991:
4990:
4988:
4986:
4975:Business Insider
4966:
4960:
4959:
4957:
4955:
4944:Business Insider
4935:
4929:
4928:
4916:
4910:
4909:
4897:
4891:
4890:
4884:
4875:
4869:
4868:
4866:
4864:
4837:
4831:
4830:
4818:
4812:
4811:
4809:
4807:
4793:
4787:
4786:
4784:
4782:
4766:
4760:
4759:
4757:
4755:
4749:
4718:
4709:
4703:
4702:
4700:
4698:
4683:
4677:
4676:
4674:
4672:
4666:
4659:
4651:
4645:
4644:
4637:
4631:
4630:
4628:
4626:
4611:
4605:
4592:
4586:
4585:
4583:
4581:
4576:on 28 April 2020
4572:. Archived from
4566:
4560:
4554:
4553:
4537:
4531:
4530:
4519:
4513:
4512:
4504:
4498:
4497:
4483:
4477:
4476:
4464:
4458:
4457:
4445:
4439:
4438:
4426:
4420:
4419:
4407:
4401:
4400:
4388:
4382:
4381:
4369:
4363:
4362:
4350:
4344:
4343:
4341:
4339:
4320:
4311:
4310:
4290:
4284:
4283:
4281:
4279:
4264:
4258:
4257:
4245:
4235:
4229:
4228:
4226:
4224:
4218:
4209:
4203:
4202:
4177:"Liquidity Trap"
4172:
4166:
4165:
4163:
4161:
4141:
4135:
4134:
4132:
4130:
4110:
4104:
4103:
4101:
4099:
4088:Business Insider
4079:
4073:
4072:
4070:
4068:
4048:
4042:
4041:
4019:
4013:
4012:
4010:
4008:
3988:
3982:
3981:
3979:
3977:
3957:
3951:
3950:
3930:
3924:
3923:
3921:
3919:
3904:
3898:
3897:
3895:
3893:
3873:
3867:
3866:
3864:
3862:
3857:on 17 March 2010
3847:
3841:
3840:
3814:
3808:
3807:
3806:on 23 July 2021.
3802:. Archived from
3795:
3789:
3788:
3786:
3784:
3778:
3767:
3758:
3747:
3746:
3728:
3719:
3714:
3708:
3707:
3696:
3690:
3689:
3687:
3685:
3670:
3664:
3663:
3661:
3659:
3644:
3638:
3637:
3635:
3633:
3617:
3611:
3610:
3608:
3606:
3590:
3584:
3583:
3581:
3579:
3574:. Bloomberg News
3567:
3561:
3560:
3548:
3542:
3541:
3539:
3537:
3522:
3513:
3512:
3510:
3508:
3491:
3485:
3484:
3482:
3480:
3452:
3446:
3445:
3443:
3441:
3413:
3407:
3406:
3404:
3402:
3379:"Points of View"
3374:
3368:
3362:
3361:
3359:
3357:
3335:
3329:
3328:
3326:
3324:
3302:
3296:
3295:
3293:
3291:
3282:. Archived from
3272:
3263:
3262:
3251:
3242:
3241:
3239:
3237:
3223:
3217:
3216:
3214:
3212:
3193:
3187:
3186:
3175:
3169:
3168:
3156:
3150:
3149:
3147:
3145:
3140:on 28 March 2009
3127:
3121:
3120:
3107:
3085:Underconsumption
3060:Inventory bounce
2870:
2861:
2855:
2849:
2843:
2837:
2828:
2819:
2694:global recession
2676:Global recession
2659:welfare benefits
2647:living standards
2628:anti-competitive
2617:Global epidemics
2497:
2452:zero lower bound
2403:aggregate demand
2284:Recession Signal
2281:
2277:
2222:Frederic Mishkin
2101:Commodity prices
2028:Credit Markets:
2014:building permits
1910:Jeffrey Gundlach
1817:Transportation:
1741:Prakash Loungani
1676:trading partners
1654:External shocks
1580:refinancing risk
1566:, there is also
1417:deficit spending
1410:Great Depression
1384:financial crisis
1293:Recession shapes
1265:recession shapes
1250:corporate sector
1071:natural disaster
1055:financial crisis
1027:
1020:
1013:
960:Financial crisis
955:Economic miracle
941:Economics events
932:Social democracy
887:Economic history
874:
873:
864:
857:
850:
834:
833:
824:Money portal
822:
821:
820:
734:William Nordhaus
719:Robert Lucas Jr.
609:François Quesnay
245:Nominal rigidity
216:Demand for money
194:Microfoundations
130:Financial crisis
110:Effective demand
80:Aggregate supply
75:Aggregate demand
62:
39:
38:
21:
9442:
9441:
9437:
9436:
9435:
9433:
9432:
9431:
9407:
9406:
9405:
9400:
9265:Great Recession
9257:
9255:Information Age
9249:
9198:
9194:
9185:
9138:
9136:Great Inflation
9130:
9092:
9084:
9007:
9005:Interwar period
8999:
8935:Long Depression
8927:
8923:
8914:
8874:
8870:
8861:
8776:
8768:
8745:
8737:
8702:U.S. recessions
8697:U.K. recessions
8629:U.S. expansions
8499:
8486:
8410:
8409:
8408:
8398:
8397:
8393:
8386:
8381:
8380:
8370:
8368:
8355:
8354:
8350:
8335:10.13176/11.106
8315:
8311:
8293:
8289:
8279:
8277:
8264:
8263:
8259:
8249:
8247:
8238:
8237:
8233:
8223:
8221:
8214:
8210:
8200:
8198:
8189:
8188:
8184:
8178:Wayback Machine
8169:
8165:
8160:on 7 July 2008.
8152:
8151:
8147:
8137:
8135:
8124:
8120:
8110:
8108:
8097:
8093:
8083:
8081:
8072:
8071:
8067:
8061:Wayback Machine
8052:
8048:
8042:Wayback Machine
8033:
8029:
8019:
8017:
8002:
7998:
7988:
7986:
7968:
7964:
7959:Wayback Machine
7950:
7946:
7936:
7934:
7919:
7915:
7907:Wayback Machine
7898:
7894:
7884:
7882:
7867:
7863:
7853:
7851:
7847:
7840:
7836:
7835:
7831:
7818:
7814:
7804:
7802:
7789:
7788:
7784:
7774:
7772:
7759:
7758:
7754:
7744:
7742:
7733:
7732:
7728:
7718:
7716:
7705:
7701:
7691:
7689:
7680:
7679:
7672:
7662:
7660:
7651:
7650:
7646:
7633:
7632:
7628:
7619:
7617:
7604:
7600:
7591:
7589:
7576:
7575:
7571:
7562:
7560:
7549:
7548:
7544:
7534:
7532:
7528:
7517:
7513:
7512:
7505:
7495:
7493:
7478:
7471:
7461:
7459:
7455:
7448:
7444:
7443:
7439:
7429:
7427:
7418:
7417:
7408:
7402:Wayback Machine
7393:
7380:
7375:Wayback Machine
7365:
7361:
7351:
7349:
7336:
7335:
7331:
7325:Wayback Machine
7316:
7309:
7299:
7297:
7282:
7278:
7268:
7266:
7255:
7246:
7240:Wayback Machine
7231:
7227:
7208:
7204:
7194:Wayback Machine
7185:
7181:
7171:
7169:
7160:
7159:
7155:
7145:
7143:
7126:
7122:
7112:
7110:
7095:
7091:
7074:
7072:
7063:
7062:
7058:
7042:
7038:
7003:
6999:
6989:
6987:
6972:
6968:
6915:
6911:
6906:. pp. 2–3.
6903:
6897:
6893:
6877:
6871:
6867:
6851:
6845:
6841:
6831:
6829:
6821:
6815:
6811:
6804:
6786:
6782:
6775:
6759:
6755:
6748:
6730:
6726:
6719:
6703:
6699:
6686:
6685:
6681:
6668:
6667:
6663:
6651:
6650:
6646:
6633:
6632:
6628:
6618:
6616:
6601:
6597:
6580:
6579:
6575:
6560:
6556:
6546:
6544:
6540:
6527:
6521:
6517:
6507:
6505:
6492:
6491:
6487:
6472:
6468:
6462:Wayback Machine
6454:
6450:
6407:
6400:
6390:
6388:
6375:
6374:
6370:
6364:Wayback Machine
6354:
6350:
6344:Wayback Machine
6335:
6331:
6310:
6306:
6291:
6287:
6274:
6273:
6269:
6254:
6250:
6240:
6238:
6225:
6224:
6220:
6210:
6208:
6195:
6194:
6190:
6180:
6178:
6165:
6164:
6160:
6150:
6148:
6139:
6138:
6134:
6119:
6115:
6105:
6103:
6095:
6094:
6090:
6086:21 January 2008
6084:Wayback Machine
6075:
6071:
6061:
6059:
6044:
6040:
6030:
6028:
6021:Financial Times
6013:
6009:
5999:
5997:
5982:
5978:
5968:
5966:
5953:
5952:
5948:
5935:
5934:
5930:
5907:
5903:
5888:
5884:
5869:
5865:
5850:
5846:
5831:
5827:
5817:
5815:
5800:
5796:
5790:Wayback Machine
5782:
5778:
5768:
5766:
5751:
5747:
5732:
5728:
5705:
5701:
5686:
5682:
5667:
5663:
5648:
5644:
5634:
5632:
5617:
5613:
5603:
5601:
5590:
5586:
5571:
5567:
5557:
5555:
5542:
5541:
5537:
5527:
5525:
5512:
5511:
5507:
5497:
5495:
5480:
5476:
5461:
5457:
5434:
5430:
5420:
5418:
5405:
5404:
5400:
5390:
5388:
5373:
5369:
5354:
5350:
5340:
5338:
5323:
5319:
5309:
5307:
5292:
5288:
5278:
5276:
5261:
5257:
5247:
5245:
5230:
5226:
5216:
5214:
5201:
5200:
5196:
5184:
5178:
5174:
5159:
5155:
5145:
5143:
5130:
5129:
5125:
5110:
5106:
5096:
5094:
5079:
5075:
5065:
5063:
5048:
5044:
5031:
5030:
5026:
5016:
5014:
5010:
5006:. August 2019.
5003:
4999:
4998:
4994:
4984:
4982:
4967:
4963:
4953:
4951:
4936:
4932:
4917:
4913:
4898:
4894:
4882:
4876:
4872:
4862:
4860:
4838:
4834:
4819:
4815:
4805:
4803:
4795:
4794:
4790:
4780:
4778:
4767:
4763:
4753:
4751:
4747:
4716:
4710:
4706:
4696:
4694:
4685:
4684:
4680:
4670:
4668:
4664:
4657:
4653:
4652:
4648:
4639:
4638:
4634:
4624:
4622:
4613:
4612:
4608:
4602:Wayback Machine
4593:
4589:
4579:
4577:
4568:
4567:
4563:
4551:
4547:Wayback Machine
4538:
4534:
4521:
4520:
4516:
4505:
4501:
4484:
4480:
4465:
4461:
4446:
4442:
4427:
4423:
4408:
4404:
4389:
4385:
4370:
4366:
4351:
4347:
4337:
4335:
4322:
4321:
4314:
4307:
4291:
4287:
4277:
4275:
4266:
4265:
4261:
4254:
4236:
4232:
4222:
4220:
4216:
4210:
4206:
4199:
4173:
4169:
4159:
4157:
4142:
4138:
4128:
4126:
4111:
4107:
4097:
4095:
4080:
4076:
4066:
4064:
4049:
4045:
4038:
4020:
4016:
4006:
4004:
3989:
3985:
3975:
3973:
3958:
3954:
3947:
3931:
3927:
3917:
3915:
3906:
3905:
3901:
3891:
3889:
3874:
3870:
3860:
3858:
3849:
3848:
3844:
3837:
3815:
3811:
3796:
3792:
3782:
3780:
3776:
3765:
3759:
3750:
3743:
3729:
3722:
3715:
3711:
3698:
3697:
3693:
3683:
3681:
3672:
3671:
3667:
3657:
3655:
3645:
3641:
3631:
3629:
3618:
3614:
3604:
3602:
3591:
3587:
3577:
3575:
3568:
3564:
3549:
3545:
3535:
3533:
3524:
3523:
3516:
3506:
3504:
3492:
3488:
3478:
3476:
3453:
3449:
3439:
3437:
3414:
3410:
3400:
3398:
3375:
3371:
3365:
3355:
3353:
3336:
3332:
3322:
3320:
3303:
3299:
3289:
3287:
3274:
3273:
3266:
3253:
3252:
3245:
3235:
3233:
3225:
3224:
3220:
3210:
3208:
3195:
3194:
3190:
3177:
3176:
3172:
3157:
3153:
3143:
3141:
3129:
3128:
3124:
3109:
3108:
3104:
3099:
3094:
3005:
2948:
2935:
2933:Great Recession
2929:
2868:
2867:
2859:
2857:
2853:
2851:
2847:
2845:
2841:
2839:
2835:
2833:
2826:
2824:
2817:
2798:
2792:
2784:Great Recession
2776:
2770:
2745:
2710:
2678:
2672:
2667:
2643:
2602:
2577:
2572:
2536:
2504:
2498:
2492:
2419:monetary policy
2411:Milton Friedman
2396:
2390:
2230:Great Recession
2113:sector rotation
2084:margin accounts
1941:personal income
1754:Manufacturing:
1718:Joseph Stiglitz
1693:
1622:Economic bubble
1584:investment risk
1531:Fiscal policies
1514:
1479:
1430:
1397:negative equity
1370:
1364:
1320:
1295:
1289:
1238:
1125:
1063:economic bubble
1031:
1002:
969:
936:
868:
828:
818:
816:
809:
808:
767:
759:
758:
739:Joseph Stiglitz
699:Milton Friedman
679:Friedrich Hayek
604:
594:
593:
476:
466:
465:
436:
428:
427:
413:Mundell–Fleming
408:Matching theory
346:Keynesian cross
331:
323:
322:
293:
285:
284:
70:
35:
28:
23:
22:
15:
12:
11:
5:
9440:
9430:
9429:
9427:Business cycle
9424:
9419:
9402:
9401:
9399:
9398:
9397:
9396:
9391:
9386:
9384:United Kingdom
9381:
9376:
9371:
9366:
9361:
9356:
9351:
9346:
9341:
9336:
9325:
9324:
9323:
9318:
9316:United Kingdom
9313:
9308:
9303:
9298:
9293:
9288:
9283:
9278:
9273:
9261:
9259:
9258:(2007–present)
9251:
9250:
9248:
9247:
9241:
9236:
9235:
9234:
9229:
9227:United Kingdom
9224:
9219:
9208:
9202:
9200:
9187:
9186:
9184:
9183:
9182:
9181:
9176:
9174:United Kingdom
9171:
9160:
9159:
9158:
9153:
9151:United Kingdom
9142:
9140:
9132:
9131:
9129:
9128:
9123:
9118:
9112:
9106:
9100:
9096:
9094:
9086:
9085:
9083:
9082:
9077:
9076:
9075:
9070:
9068:United Kingdom
9065:
9060:
9055:
9050:
9045:
9034:
9031:
9028:
9023:
9018:
9011:
9009:
9001:
9000:
8998:
8997:
8991:
8985:
8979:
8973:
8970:
8964:
8958:
8955:
8950:
8949:
8948:
8943:
8941:United Kingdom
8931:
8929:
8916:
8915:
8913:
8912:
8906:
8900:
8897:
8891:
8888:
8882:
8878:
8876:
8863:
8862:
8860:
8859:
8853:
8850:
8847:
8841:
8838:
8832:
8829:
8826:
8823:
8817:
8807:
8804:
8803:
8802:
8797:
8792:
8780:
8778:
8770:
8769:
8767:
8766:
8761:
8756:
8749:
8747:
8739:
8738:
8736:
8735:
8734:
8733:
8723:
8722:
8721:
8716:
8706:
8705:
8704:
8699:
8694:
8689:
8684:
8679:
8674:
8669:
8659:
8658:
8657:
8648:
8643:
8633:
8632:
8631:
8626:
8621:
8611:
8610:
8609:
8604:
8599:
8594:
8589:
8580:
8575:
8570:
8556:
8554:Business cycle
8551:
8550:
8549:
8544:
8539:
8534:
8532:Overproduction
8529:
8524:
8519:
8504:
8501:
8500:
8485:
8484:
8477:
8470:
8462:
8456:
8455:
8449:
8407:
8406:
8400:
8399:
8388:
8387:
8385:
8384:External links
8382:
8379:
8378:
8348:
8309:
8287:
8257:
8246:on 3 July 2009
8231:
8208:
8182:
8163:
8145:
8118:
8091:
8065:
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8027:
7996:
7962:
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7913:
7892:
7861:
7829:
7812:
7782:
7752:
7726:
7699:
7670:
7644:
7626:
7598:
7569:
7542:
7503:
7469:
7437:
7406:
7378:
7359:
7329:
7307:
7276:
7244:
7225:
7202:
7200:, 31 July 2003
7179:
7153:
7120:
7089:
7056:
7036:
6997:
6966:
6935:10.1086/657529
6909:
6891:
6865:
6839:
6828:. pp. 3–4
6809:
6802:
6780:
6773:
6753:
6746:
6724:
6717:
6697:
6679:
6661:
6644:
6626:
6595:
6573:
6554:
6515:
6485:
6466:
6448:
6398:
6381:newyorkfed.org
6368:
6348:
6329:
6304:
6285:
6267:
6248:
6218:
6188:
6171:chicagofed.org
6158:
6132:
6113:
6088:
6069:
6038:
6007:
5976:
5946:
5928:
5901:
5882:
5863:
5844:
5825:
5794:
5776:
5745:
5726:
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5680:
5661:
5642:
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5584:
5565:
5535:
5505:
5474:
5455:
5428:
5398:
5367:
5348:
5317:
5286:
5255:
5224:
5194:
5172:
5153:
5123:
5104:
5073:
5042:
5024:
4992:
4961:
4930:
4911:
4892:
4870:
4832:
4813:
4788:
4761:
4704:
4678:
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4632:
4606:
4587:
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4514:
4499:
4478:
4459:
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4421:
4402:
4383:
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4305:
4285:
4259:
4252:
4230:
4204:
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4136:
4105:
4074:
4043:
4036:
4014:
3983:
3952:
3945:
3925:
3899:
3868:
3842:
3835:
3809:
3790:
3748:
3741:
3720:
3709:
3691:
3665:
3639:
3624:. PolitiFact.
3612:
3585:
3562:
3543:
3514:
3486:
3447:
3408:
3369:
3363:
3330:
3297:
3264:
3261:. 8 July 2008.
3243:
3218:
3188:
3170:
3151:
3122:
3101:
3100:
3098:
3095:
3093:
3092:
3087:
3082:
3077:
3072:
3070:Overproduction
3067:
3062:
3057:
3052:
3047:
3042:
3037:
3032:
3027:
3022:
3017:
3012:
3006:
3004:
3001:
2947:
2944:
2931:Main article:
2928:
2925:
2905:
2904:
2898:
2892:
2886:
2858:
2852:
2846:
2840:
2834:
2825:
2816:
2794:Main article:
2791:
2788:
2772:Main article:
2769:
2768:United Kingdom
2766:
2744:
2743:European Union
2741:
2709:
2706:
2674:Main article:
2671:
2668:
2666:
2663:
2642:
2641:Social effects
2639:
2601:
2598:
2576:
2573:
2571:
2568:
2544:1981 recession
2535:
2532:
2503:
2500:
2490:
2461:macroeconomic
2389:
2386:
2383:
2382:
2379:
2376:
2373:
2370:
2366:
2365:
2362:
2359:
2356:
2353:
2349:
2348:
2345:
2342:
2339:
2336:
2332:
2331:
2328:
2325:
2322:
2319:
2315:
2314:
2311:
2308:
2305:
2302:
2298:
2297:
2294:
2291:
2288:
2285:
2273:
2272:
2267:moving average
2244:
2233:
2205:
2201:
2198:
2195:
2192:
2189:
2182:
2176:
2166:
2165:
2162:Alan Greenspan
2158:
2150:
2149:
2146:
2141:
2130:
2129:
2123:
2120:
2117:
2109:
2098:
2090:Asset Prices:
2088:
2087:
2076:
2075:
2068:
2067:
2064:federal budget
2060:
2057:
2049:
2045:
2037:
2033:
2026:
2025:
2017:
2006:
2005:
2002:
1995:
1988:
1981:
1967:
1956:
1955:
1948:
1937:
1926:
1925:
1921:
1917:
1913:
1906:
1903:
1891:
1888:
1881:
1880:
1873:
1872:
1869:
1865:
1857:
1853:
1837:
1830:
1815:
1814:
1813:Council (ACC).
1810:
1807:
1800:
1799:
1791:
1784:
1783:
1772:
1769:
1766:
1763:
1760:
1737:
1736:
1733:
1728:
1725:
1704:to combat the
1702:fed funds rate
1692:
1689:
1684:
1683:
1679:
1668:
1652:
1651:
1633:
1619:
1613:
1607:
1603:
1596:political risk
1576:liquidity risk
1560:Financial risk
1557:
1546:
1545:
1539:
1528:
1513:
1510:
1478:
1475:
1452:described the
1434:liquidity trap
1429:
1428:Liquidity trap
1426:
1401:interest rates
1389:private sector
1366:Main article:
1363:
1360:
1352:money illusion
1329:animal spirits
1319:
1316:
1291:Main article:
1288:
1285:
1246:Richard C. Koo
1237:
1234:
1184:, employment,
1163:
1162:
1159:
1156:
1149:
1138:Julius Shiskin
1124:
1121:
1098:United Kingdom
1094:European Union
1047:business cycle
1033:
1032:
1030:
1029:
1022:
1015:
1007:
1004:
1003:
1001:
1000:
995:
990:
985:
979:
976:
975:
971:
970:
968:
967:
962:
957:
952:
946:
943:
942:
938:
937:
935:
934:
929:
924:
919:
914:
909:
904:
898:
895:
894:
890:
889:
883:
882:
870:
869:
867:
866:
859:
852:
844:
841:
840:
839:
838:
826:
811:
810:
807:
806:
801:
796:
794:Microeconomics
791:
790:
789:
779:
774:
768:
765:
764:
761:
760:
757:
756:
751:
746:
741:
736:
731:
726:
721:
716:
711:
709:Lawrence Klein
706:
704:Paul Samuelson
701:
696:
691:
686:
681:
676:
671:
666:
661:
659:Michał Kalecki
656:
651:
646:
641:
636:
631:
626:
621:
616:
611:
605:
600:
599:
596:
595:
592:
591:
586:
581:
579:Disequilibrium
576:
575:
574:
567:Post-Keynesian
564:
559:
558:
557:
547:
536:
535:
530:
525:
520:
515:
514:
513:
503:
498:
497:
496:
491:
477:
472:
471:
468:
467:
464:
463:
458:
453:
448:
443:
437:
435:Related fields
434:
433:
430:
429:
426:
425:
420:
415:
410:
405:
400:
399:
398:
388:
383:
378:
373:
368:
363:
361:Phillips curve
358:
353:
348:
343:
338:
332:
329:
328:
325:
324:
321:
320:
315:
310:
305:
300:
294:
291:
290:
287:
286:
283:
282:
277:
272:
267:
262:
257:
252:
247:
242:
241:
240:
230:
225:
224:
223:
213:
211:Money creation
208:
207:
206:
196:
191:
190:
189:
184:
179:
169:
167:Liquidity trap
164:
159:
154:
153:
152:
147:
137:
132:
127:
126:
125:
120:
112:
107:
102:
97:
92:
87:
85:Business cycle
82:
77:
71:
69:Basic concepts
68:
67:
64:
63:
55:
54:
52:Macroeconomics
48:
47:
26:
9:
6:
4:
3:
2:
9439:
9428:
9425:
9423:
9420:
9418:
9415:
9414:
9412:
9395:
9392:
9390:
9389:United States
9387:
9385:
9382:
9380:
9377:
9375:
9372:
9370:
9367:
9365:
9362:
9360:
9357:
9355:
9352:
9350:
9347:
9345:
9342:
9340:
9337:
9335:
9331:
9330:
9329:
9326:
9322:
9321:United States
9319:
9317:
9314:
9312:
9309:
9307:
9304:
9302:
9299:
9297:
9294:
9292:
9289:
9287:
9284:
9282:
9279:
9277:
9274:
9272:
9268:
9267:
9266:
9263:
9262:
9260:
9256:
9252:
9245:
9242:
9240:
9237:
9233:
9232:United States
9230:
9228:
9225:
9223:
9220:
9218:
9214:
9213:
9212:
9209:
9207:
9204:
9203:
9201:
9197:
9192:
9188:
9180:
9179:United States
9177:
9175:
9172:
9170:
9166:
9165:
9164:
9161:
9157:
9156:United States
9154:
9152:
9149:
9148:
9147:
9144:
9143:
9141:
9137:
9133:
9127:
9124:
9122:
9119:
9116:
9113:
9110:
9107:
9104:
9101:
9098:
9097:
9095:
9091:
9087:
9081:
9078:
9074:
9073:United States
9071:
9069:
9066:
9064:
9061:
9059:
9056:
9054:
9051:
9049:
9046:
9044:
9040:
9039:
9038:
9035:
9032:
9029:
9027:
9024:
9022:
9019:
9016:
9013:
9012:
9010:
9006:
9002:
8995:
8992:
8989:
8986:
8983:
8982:Panic of 1907
8980:
8977:
8976:Panic of 1901
8974:
8971:
8968:
8967:Panic of 1893
8965:
8962:
8961:Baring crisis
8959:
8956:
8954:
8951:
8947:
8946:United States
8944:
8942:
8938:
8937:
8936:
8933:
8932:
8930:
8926:
8921:
8917:
8910:
8907:
8904:
8903:Panic of 1866
8901:
8898:
8895:
8894:Panic of 1857
8892:
8889:
8886:
8885:Panic of 1847
8883:
8880:
8879:
8877:
8873:
8868:
8864:
8857:
8856:Panic of 1837
8854:
8851:
8848:
8845:
8844:Panic of 1825
8842:
8839:
8836:
8833:
8830:
8827:
8824:
8821:
8818:
8815:
8814:Panic of 1792
8811:
8808:
8805:
8801:
8798:
8796:
8793:
8791:
8787:
8786:
8785:
8782:
8781:
8779:
8775:
8771:
8765:
8762:
8760:
8759:Slump of 1706
8757:
8754:
8751:
8750:
8748:
8744:
8740:
8732:
8729:
8728:
8727:
8724:
8720:
8717:
8715:
8712:
8711:
8710:
8707:
8703:
8700:
8698:
8695:
8693:
8690:
8688:
8685:
8683:
8680:
8678:
8675:
8673:
8670:
8668:
8667:Balance sheet
8665:
8664:
8663:
8660:
8656:
8652:
8649:
8647:
8644:
8642:
8639:
8638:
8637:
8636:Interest rate
8634:
8630:
8627:
8625:
8622:
8620:
8617:
8616:
8615:
8612:
8608:
8605:
8603:
8600:
8598:
8595:
8593:
8590:
8588:
8584:
8581:
8579:
8576:
8574:
8571:
8569:
8566:
8565:
8564:
8560:
8557:
8555:
8552:
8548:
8545:
8543:
8540:
8538:
8535:
8533:
8530:
8528:
8525:
8523:
8520:
8518:
8515:
8514:
8513:
8509:
8506:
8505:
8502:
8498:
8494:
8490:
8483:
8478:
8476:
8471:
8469:
8464:
8463:
8460:
8453:
8450:
8448:
8444:
8440:
8436:
8431:
8427:
8426:
8421:
8417:
8412:
8411:
8405:
8402:
8401:
8396:
8391:
8366:
8362:
8358:
8352:
8344:
8340:
8336:
8332:
8328:
8324:
8320:
8313:
8305:
8301:
8297:
8296:Gross, Daniel
8291:
8275:
8271:
8267:
8261:
8245:
8241:
8235:
8219:
8212:
8196:
8192:
8186:
8179:
8175:
8172:
8167:
8159:
8155:
8149:
8133:
8129:
8122:
8106:
8102:
8095:
8079:
8075:
8069:
8062:
8058:
8055:
8050:
8043:
8039:
8036:
8031:
8015:
8011:
8007:
8000:
7984:
7980:
7976:
7972:
7966:
7960:
7956:
7953:
7948:
7932:
7928:
7924:
7917:
7911:
7908:
7904:
7901:
7896:
7880:
7876:
7872:
7865:
7846:
7839:
7833:
7825:
7824:
7816:
7800:
7796:
7792:
7786:
7770:
7766:
7762:
7756:
7740:
7736:
7730:
7714:
7710:
7703:
7687:
7683:
7677:
7675:
7658:
7654:
7648:
7640:
7636:
7630:
7615:
7611:
7610:
7602:
7587:
7583:
7579:
7573:
7558:
7554:
7553:
7546:
7527:
7523:
7516:
7510:
7508:
7491:
7487:
7483:
7476:
7474:
7454:
7447:
7441:
7425:
7421:
7415:
7413:
7411:
7403:
7399:
7396:
7391:
7389:
7387:
7385:
7383:
7376:
7372:
7369:
7363:
7347:
7343:
7342:The Economist
7339:
7333:
7326:
7322:
7319:
7314:
7312:
7295:
7291:
7287:
7280:
7264:
7260:
7253:
7251:
7249:
7241:
7237:
7234:
7229:
7221:
7217:
7213:
7206:
7199:
7195:
7191:
7188:
7183:
7167:
7163:
7157:
7141:
7137:
7136:
7131:
7124:
7108:
7104:
7100:
7093:
7086:
7084:
7070:
7066:
7060:
7054:
7050:
7046:
7040:
7032:
7028:
7024:
7020:
7016:
7012:
7008:
7001:
6985:
6981:
6977:
6970:
6962:
6958:
6954:
6950:
6945:
6940:
6936:
6932:
6928:
6924:
6920:
6913:
6902:
6895:
6887:
6883:
6876:
6869:
6861:
6857:
6850:
6843:
6827:
6820:
6813:
6805:
6799:
6795:
6791:
6784:
6776:
6770:
6766:
6765:
6757:
6749:
6743:
6739:
6735:
6728:
6720:
6714:
6710:
6709:
6701:
6693:
6689:
6683:
6675:
6671:
6665:
6657:
6654:
6648:
6640:
6636:
6630:
6614:
6610:
6606:
6599:
6592:
6587:
6583:
6577:
6569:
6565:
6558:
6539:
6535:
6534:
6526:
6519:
6503:
6499:
6495:
6489:
6481:
6477:
6470:
6463:
6459:
6456:
6452:
6444:
6440:
6436:
6432:
6428:
6424:
6420:
6416:
6412:
6405:
6403:
6386:
6382:
6378:
6372:
6365:
6361:
6358:
6352:
6345:
6341:
6338:
6333:
6324:
6319:
6315:
6308:
6300:
6296:
6289:
6281:
6277:
6271:
6263:
6259:
6252:
6236:
6232:
6228:
6222:
6206:
6202:
6198:
6192:
6176:
6172:
6168:
6162:
6146:
6142:
6136:
6128:
6124:
6117:
6101:
6098:
6092:
6085:
6081:
6078:
6073:
6057:
6053:
6049:
6042:
6026:
6022:
6018:
6011:
5995:
5991:
5987:
5980:
5964:
5960:
5956:
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5695:
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5684:
5676:
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5665:
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5630:
5626:
5625:Seeking Alpha
5622:
5615:
5599:
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5588:
5580:
5576:
5569:
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5549:
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4557:public domain
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3998:
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3836:9781612336084
3832:
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3197:"FAQ | EABCN"
3192:
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3033:
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3028:
3026:
3023:
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3018:
3016:
3015:Credit crunch
3013:
3011:
3008:
3007:
3000:
2996:
2992:
2988:
2985:
2980:
2977:
2971:
2968:
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2946:United States
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2902:
2899:
2896:
2893:
2890:
2887:
2884:
2881:
2880:
2879:
2873:
2865:
2864:CPI inflation
2832:
2823:
2814:
2810:
2802:
2797:
2790:United States
2787:
2785:
2781:
2775:
2765:
2763:
2759:
2755:
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2740:
2736:
2734:
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2705:
2703:
2697:
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2687:
2683:
2677:
2662:
2660:
2656:
2655:fixed incomes
2652:
2648:
2638:
2636:
2632:
2629:
2624:
2622:
2618:
2614:
2610:
2609:profitability
2606:
2597:
2593:
2590:
2586:
2582:
2567:
2565:
2561:
2560:Walter Heller
2557:
2556:Ronald Reagan
2553:
2549:
2545:
2540:
2534:U.S. politics
2531:
2529:
2524:
2522:
2517:
2515:
2511:
2510:
2495:
2489:
2484:
2482:
2478:
2475:
2471:
2467:
2464:
2460:
2459:New Keynesian
2455:
2453:
2449:
2443:
2440:
2436:
2432:
2428:
2424:
2420:
2417:expansionary
2416:
2412:
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2323:
2320:
2317:
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2309:
2306:
2303:
2300:
2299:
2295:
2293:Current Value
2292:
2289:
2286:
2283:
2282:
2276:
2270:
2268:
2261:
2257:
2253:
2249:
2245:
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2238:
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2227:
2223:
2218:
2214:
2210:
2206:
2202:
2199:
2196:
2193:
2190:
2187:
2183:
2180:
2177:
2174:
2171:
2170:
2169:
2163:
2159:
2155:
2154:
2153:
2147:
2145:
2142:
2138:
2135:
2134:
2133:
2127:
2124:
2121:
2118:
2114:
2110:
2106:
2102:
2099:
2096:
2093:
2092:
2091:
2085:
2081:
2080:
2079:
2073:
2072:
2071:
2065:
2061:
2058:
2054:
2050:
2046:
2043:
2038:
2034:
2031:
2030:
2029:
2022:
2018:
2015:
2011:
2010:
2009:
2003:
2000:
1996:
1993:
1989:
1986:
1982:
1979:
1975:
1971:
1968:
1965:
1961:
1960:
1959:
1953:
1949:
1946:
1942:
1938:
1935:
1931:
1930:
1929:
1922:
1918:
1914:
1911:
1907:
1904:
1901:
1897:
1892:
1889:
1886:
1885:
1884:
1878:
1877:
1876:
1870:
1866:
1863:
1858:
1854:
1851:
1847:
1842:
1838:
1835:
1831:
1828:
1824:
1820:
1819:
1818:
1811:
1808:
1805:
1804:
1803:
1797:
1796:ripple effect
1792:
1789:
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1787:
1781:
1777:
1773:
1770:
1767:
1764:
1761:
1757:
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1746:
1742:
1731:
1729:
1726:
1723:
1722:
1721:
1719:
1715:
1711:
1710:Deutsche Bank
1707:
1703:
1698:
1688:
1680:
1677:
1673:
1669:
1665:
1661:
1657:
1656:
1655:
1649:
1645:
1641:
1640:overleveraged
1637:
1636:Minsky Moment
1634:
1631:
1627:
1626:economic boom
1623:
1620:
1617:
1614:
1611:
1608:
1604:
1601:
1597:
1593:
1592:business risk
1589:
1585:
1581:
1577:
1573:
1572:systemic risk
1569:
1565:
1561:
1558:
1556:consumption).
1554:
1551:
1550:
1549:
1543:
1542:Demand shocks
1540:
1537:
1532:
1529:
1526:
1525:Supply shocks
1523:
1522:
1521:
1518:
1509:
1506:
1501:
1497:
1492:
1489:
1485:
1474:
1471:
1467:
1463:
1459:
1455:
1451:
1448:". Economist
1447:
1443:
1439:
1435:
1425:
1421:
1418:
1413:
1411:
1406:
1402:
1398:
1392:
1390:
1385:
1381:
1376:
1375:balance sheet
1369:
1359:
1357:
1356:normalcy bias
1353:
1349:
1344:
1340:
1339:
1334:
1333:psychological
1330:
1325:
1315:
1313:
1309:
1305:
1301:
1294:
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1201:
1199:
1195:
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1187:
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1170:United States
1166:
1160:
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1154:
1150:
1147:
1143:
1142:
1141:
1139:
1136:
1132:
1131:
1120:
1118:
1114:
1110:
1105:
1103:
1099:
1095:
1091:
1087:
1086:United States
1082:
1080:
1076:
1072:
1068:
1067:anthropogenic
1064:
1060:
1056:
1052:
1048:
1044:
1040:
1028:
1023:
1021:
1016:
1014:
1009:
1008:
1006:
1005:
999:
996:
994:
991:
989:
986:
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980:
978:
977:
973:
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953:
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948:
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876:
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865:
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851:
846:
845:
843:
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837:
832:
827:
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815:
814:
813:
812:
805:
802:
800:
797:
795:
792:
788:
785:
784:
783:
780:
778:
775:
773:
770:
769:
763:
762:
755:
752:
750:
747:
745:
742:
740:
737:
735:
732:
730:
729:Peter Diamond
727:
725:
722:
720:
717:
715:
714:Edmund Phelps
712:
710:
707:
705:
702:
700:
697:
695:
692:
690:
689:Richard Stone
687:
685:
682:
680:
677:
675:
674:Joan Robinson
672:
670:
669:Simon Kuznets
667:
665:
664:Gunnar Myrdal
662:
660:
657:
655:
652:
650:
647:
645:
642:
640:
639:Irving Fisher
637:
635:
634:Knut Wicksell
632:
630:
627:
625:
622:
620:
617:
615:
612:
610:
607:
606:
603:
598:
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582:
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569:
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560:
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553:
552:
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548:
546:
543:
542:
541:
540:
534:
531:
529:
526:
524:
521:
519:
516:
512:
509:
508:
507:
506:New classical
504:
502:
499:
495:
492:
490:
487:
486:
485:
482:
481:
480:
475:
470:
469:
462:
459:
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452:
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369:
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364:
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334:
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327:
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319:
316:
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309:
306:
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301:
299:
296:
295:
289:
288:
281:
278:
276:
273:
271:
268:
266:
263:
261:
260:Shrinkflation
258:
256:
253:
251:
248:
246:
243:
239:
236:
235:
234:
231:
229:
226:
222:
219:
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200:
197:
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192:
188:
185:
183:
180:
178:
175:
174:
173:
170:
168:
165:
163:
160:
158:
157:Interest rate
155:
151:
148:
146:
143:
142:
141:
138:
136:
133:
131:
128:
124:
121:
119:
116:
115:
114:Expectations
113:
111:
108:
106:
103:
101:
98:
96:
93:
91:
88:
86:
83:
81:
78:
76:
73:
72:
66:
65:
61:
57:
56:
53:
50:
49:
45:
41:
40:
37:
33:
19:
9422:Unemployment
9306:South Africa
9063:South Africa
8909:Black Friday
8726:Unemployment
8661:
8583:Money supply
8578:Disinflation
8522:General glut
8423:
8416:"Recessions"
8394:
8369:. Retrieved
8360:
8351:
8329:(1): 40–53.
8326:
8322:
8312:
8303:
8290:
8278:. Retrieved
8269:
8260:
8248:. Retrieved
8244:the original
8234:
8222:. Retrieved
8211:
8199:. Retrieved
8185:
8166:
8158:the original
8148:
8136:. Retrieved
8132:the original
8121:
8109:. Retrieved
8094:
8082:. Retrieved
8068:
8049:
8030:
8018:. Retrieved
8009:
7999:
7987:. Retrieved
7978:
7965:
7947:
7935:. Retrieved
7926:
7916:
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7883:. Retrieved
7874:
7864:
7852:. Retrieved
7832:
7821:
7815:
7803:. Retrieved
7794:
7785:
7773:. Retrieved
7764:
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7743:. Retrieved
7729:
7717:. Retrieved
7702:
7690:. Retrieved
7686:the original
7661:. Retrieved
7647:
7638:
7629:
7618:, retrieved
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7601:
7590:, retrieved
7586:the original
7581:
7572:
7561:, retrieved
7551:
7545:
7535:17 September
7533:. Retrieved
7521:
7496:17 September
7494:. Retrieved
7485:
7460:. Retrieved
7440:
7428:. Retrieved
7424:the original
7362:
7350:. Retrieved
7341:
7332:
7298:. Retrieved
7289:
7279:
7267:. Retrieved
7263:the original
7228:
7220:the original
7215:
7205:
7182:
7170:. Retrieved
7156:
7146:10 September
7144:. Retrieved
7133:
7123:
7111:. Retrieved
7102:
7092:
7082:
7080:
7073:. Retrieved
7059:
7044:
7039:
7014:
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7000:
6988:. Retrieved
6979:
6969:
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6830:. Retrieved
6825:
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6617:. Retrieved
6608:
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6557:
6545:. Retrieved
6531:
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6506:. Retrieved
6497:
6488:
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6414:
6389:. Retrieved
6380:
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6332:
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6288:
6279:
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6261:
6251:
6239:. Retrieved
6230:
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6209:. Retrieved
6200:
6191:
6179:. Retrieved
6170:
6161:
6149:. Retrieved
6144:
6135:
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6104:. Retrieved
6091:
6072:
6060:. Retrieved
6051:
6041:
6029:. Retrieved
6025:the original
6020:
6010:
5998:. Retrieved
5989:
5979:
5967:. Retrieved
5958:
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5876:
5866:
5857:
5847:
5838:
5828:
5818:17 September
5816:. Retrieved
5808:ThinkAdvisor
5807:
5797:
5779:
5767:. Retrieved
5758:
5748:
5739:
5729:
5712:
5702:
5693:
5683:
5674:
5664:
5655:
5645:
5635:21 September
5633:. Retrieved
5624:
5614:
5602:. Retrieved
5587:
5578:
5568:
5556:. Retrieved
5547:
5538:
5526:. Retrieved
5517:
5508:
5498:18 September
5496:. Retrieved
5487:
5477:
5468:
5458:
5441:
5437:
5431:
5419:. Retrieved
5410:
5401:
5389:. Retrieved
5380:
5370:
5362:FOX Business
5361:
5351:
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5330:
5320:
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5299:
5289:
5277:. Retrieved
5268:
5258:
5248:17 September
5246:. Retrieved
5238:ThinkAdvisor
5237:
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5206:
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5135:
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5097:13 September
5095:. Retrieved
5086:
5076:
5066:13 September
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5055:
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5036:
5027:
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4985:18 September
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4791:
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4764:
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4724:
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4681:
4671:25 September
4669:. Retrieved
4649:
4635:
4625:25 September
4623:. Retrieved
4609:
4590:
4578:. Retrieved
4574:the original
4564:
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4327:
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4262:
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4207:
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4087:
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4056:
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3965:
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3916:. Retrieved
3902:
3890:. Retrieved
3881:
3871:
3859:. Retrieved
3855:the original
3845:
3826:
3822:
3812:
3804:the original
3793:
3781:. Retrieved
3774:the original
3769:
3732:
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3703:
3694:
3682:. Retrieved
3677:
3668:
3656:. Retrieved
3652:
3642:
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3615:
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3588:
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3565:
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3505:. Retrieved
3499:
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3460:
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3421:
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3382:
3372:
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3354:. Retrieved
3343:
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3321:. Retrieved
3310:
3300:
3288:. Retrieved
3284:the original
3258:
3234:. Retrieved
3230:
3221:
3209:. Retrieved
3200:
3191:
3183:www.nber.org
3182:
3173:
3164:
3154:
3142:. Retrieved
3138:the original
3132:
3125:
3114:
3105:
3030:Disinflation
2997:
2993:
2989:
2981:
2972:
2964:
2949:
2936:
2921:
2917:
2910:
2906:
2876:
2777:
2746:
2737:
2733:Black Monday
2730:
2722:
2711:
2702:World War II
2698:
2693:
2690:
2679:
2644:
2625:
2605:Productivity
2603:
2594:
2578:
2575:Unemployment
2570:Consequences
2548:Paul Volcker
2541:
2537:
2525:
2518:
2507:
2505:
2502:Stock market
2493:
2486:
2479:
2470:Paul Krugman
2468:
2456:
2444:
2397:
2381:August 2024
2364:August 2024
2347:August 2024
2330:August 2024
2313:August 2024
2274:
2264:
2252:Claudia Sahm
2167:
2151:
2131:
2089:
2077:
2069:
2027:
2007:
1983:Declines in
1957:
1927:
1883:Employment:
1882:
1874:
1816:
1801:
1785:
1753:
1750:
1738:
1714:Paul Krugman
1694:
1685:
1653:
1648:Hyman Minsky
1547:
1536:hard landing
1519:
1515:
1496:Janet Yellen
1493:
1488:Hyman Minsky
1480:
1470:mercantilist
1466:inflationary
1450:Paul Krugman
1431:
1422:
1414:
1405:money supply
1393:
1380:Paul Krugman
1371:
1336:
1321:
1296:
1283:recessions.
1258:
1243:
1239:
1227:
1216:
1206:
1202:
1194:retail sales
1167:
1164:
1128:
1126:
1106:
1083:
1059:supply shock
1051:demand shock
1042:
1036:
949:
749:Paul Krugman
694:Hyman Minsky
654:Alvin Hansen
538:
537:
478:
441:Econometrics
418:Overshooting
371:Harrod–Domar
366:Arrow–Debreu
313:Central bank
280:Unemployment
270:Supply shock
254:
228:Money supply
105:Disinflation
100:Demand shock
36:
9374:New Zealand
9332:2020–2022;
9296:New Zealand
9269:2007–2009;
9215:1990–1991;
9199:(1982–2007)
9167:1980–1982;
9139:(1973–1982)
9117:(1957–1958)
9111:(1953–1954)
9105:(1948–1949)
9093:(1945–1973)
9058:New Zealand
9041:1929–1939;
9017:(1918–1919)
9008:(1918–1939)
8990:(1910–1912)
8984:(1907–1908)
8978:(1902–1904)
8969:(1893–1897)
8963:(1890–1891)
8939:1873–1879;
8928:(1870–1914)
8911:(1869–1870)
8905:(1865–1867)
8896:(1857–1858)
8887:(1847–1848)
8875:(1840–1870)
8846:(1825–1826)
8837:(1815–1821)
8822:(1796–1799)
8816:(1789–1793)
8788:1772–1774;
8777:(1760–1840)
8755:(1430–1490)
8753:Great Slump
8746:(1000–1760)
8692:Stagflation
8651:Yield curve
8597:Price level
8371:26 November
8220:. Bloomberg
8193:. Bea.gov.
7692:26 November
7017:(13): 160.
6990:26 November
6944:10419/60825
6619:1 September
5444:: 386–400.
5391:1 September
5300:Marketwatch
5056:Marketplace
4954:1 September
4697:26 November
4580:14 February
4160:26 November
4129:26 November
4067:26 November
3678:www.bea.gov
3280:HM Treasury
3211:29 December
3144:19 November
3111:"recession"
3080:Stagflation
3050:Foreclosure
2903:: 18 months
2885:: 15 months
2714:depressions
2521:real estate
2431:Supply-side
2407:Monetarists
1990:Decreasing
1939:Decline in
1932:Decline in
1667:recessions.
1600:profit risk
1598:as well as
1568:market risk
1553:Credit risk
1256:near zero.
1254:net exports
1182:real income
1123:Definitions
902:Advertising
629:Léon Walras
523:Supply-side
356:Accelerator
265:Stagflation
250:Price level
145:Demand-pull
9417:Recessions
9411:Categories
9339:Bangladesh
9276:Bangladesh
8920:Gilded Age
8672:Depression
8624:Stagnation
8280:29 January
8250:29 January
8224:29 January
8201:29 January
8138:29 January
7745:6 February
7719:29 January
7300:7 February
7269:22 January
6508:29 January
5877:MarketBeat
5675:MarketBeat
4781:7 December
4511:. Reuters.
4278:29 January
4150:Voxeu.org)
4098:29 January
3976:29 January
3918:29 January
3892:29 January
3345:CPA Canada
3290:25 October
3097:References
3025:Depression
2927:Late 2000s
2897:: 8 months
2891:: 8 months
2872:Recessions
2619:, such as
2392:See also:
2296:Last Data
1997:Weakening
1994:shipments.
1976:) and the
1950:Increased
1846:Dow Theory
1821:Declining
1691:Predictors
1594:like e.g.
1588:model risk
1586:like e.g.
1578:like e.g.
1570:like e.g.
1267:, such as
1244:Economist
1236:Attributes
1223:output gap
1111:, such as
912:Capitalism
684:John Hicks
614:Adam Smith
572:Circuitism
562:Ecological
550:Chartalism
501:Monetarism
479:Mainstream
376:Solow–Swan
351:Multiplier
308:Commercial
204:Endogenous
162:Investment
9379:Singapore
9334:Australia
9311:Sri Lanka
9271:Australia
9217:Australia
9043:Australia
9033:1926–1927
9030:1923–1924
8996:(1913–14)
8972:1899–1900
8828:1807–1810
8825:1802–1804
8806:1785–1788
8731:Sahm rule
8662:Recession
8563:Inflation
8559:Deflation
8447:163149563
8439:317650570
8395:Recession
8343:1558-884X
8270:USA Today
7592:11 August
7563:11 August
7023:0012-9976
6953:0889-3365
6929:: 59–60.
6826:Brookings
6692:GuruFocus
6674:GuruFocus
6547:25 August
6443:253717746
6435:0377-7332
6151:22 August
6062:29 August
6031:29 August
6000:29 August
5969:29 August
5917:: 18–40.
5769:30 August
5558:22 August
5548:GuruFocus
5528:22 August
5518:GuruFocus
5421:25 August
5341:29 August
5310:29 August
5279:27 August
5217:22 August
5207:GuruFocus
5146:22 August
5136:GuruFocus
4754:25 August
3501:CNN Money
3469:0362-4331
3430:0362-4331
3391:0362-4331
3356:23 August
3323:23 August
3231:eabcn.org
3201:eabcn.org
3020:Deflation
2866:year/year
2725:inflation
2708:Australia
2554:, before
2423:Keynesian
2036:strained.
1900:Sahm rule
1644:liquidity
1606:activity.
1438:Keynesian
1308:Hong Kong
1190:wholesale
1043:recession
1039:economics
950:Recession
782:Economics
624:Karl Marx
539:Heterodox
518:Stockholm
484:Keynesian
255:Recession
150:Cost-push
140:Inflation
95:Deflation
9364:Malaysia
9349:Botswana
9301:Pakistan
9291:Malaysia
8795:Scotland
8655:Inverted
8619:Recovery
8443:50016270
8365:Archived
8361:nber.org
8304:Newsweek
8274:Archived
8195:Archived
8174:Archived
8111:10 April
8105:Archived
8078:Archived
8057:Archived
8038:Archived
8020:10 March
8014:Archived
7989:10 April
7983:Archived
7955:Archived
7937:10 March
7931:Archived
7903:Archived
7885:4 August
7879:Archived
7854:26 April
7845:Archived
7799:Archived
7769:Archived
7739:Archived
7713:Archived
7657:Archived
7639:BBC News
7614:archived
7557:archived
7526:Archived
7490:Archived
7462:16 April
7453:Archived
7430:15 April
7398:Archived
7371:Archived
7352:15 April
7346:Archived
7321:Archived
7294:Archived
7236:Archived
7190:Archived
7166:Archived
7140:Archived
7113:10 April
7107:Archived
7069:Archived
7031:40278675
6984:Archived
6961:16071568
6888:(1): 38.
6862:(1): 54.
6832:5 August
6613:Archived
6538:Archived
6502:Archived
6458:Archived
6391:20 March
6385:Archived
6360:Archived
6340:Archived
6235:Archived
6205:Archived
6175:Archived
6106:4 August
6100:Archived
6080:Archived
6056:Archived
5994:Archived
5963:Archived
5812:Archived
5786:Archived
5763:Archived
5629:Archived
5598:Archived
5552:Archived
5522:Archived
5492:Archived
5415:Archived
5413:. 2016.
5411:phys.org
5385:Archived
5335:Archived
5304:Archived
5273:Archived
5242:Archived
5211:Archived
5140:Archived
5091:Archived
5060:Archived
5008:Archived
4979:Archived
4948:Archived
4863:5 August
4806:4 August
4800:Archived
4775:Archived
4745:Archived
4741:11641969
4691:Archived
4662:Archived
4619:Archived
4598:Archived
4543:Archived
4332:Archived
4272:Archived
4223:5 August
4154:Archived
4123:Archived
4092:Archived
4061:Archived
4001:Archived
3970:Archived
3912:Archived
3886:Archived
3783:3 August
3653:KUSA.com
3626:Archived
3599:Archived
3597:. CNBC.
3536:20 March
3530:Archived
3507:8 August
3473:Archived
3434:Archived
3395:Archived
3350:Archived
3317:Archived
3259:BBC News
3205:Archived
3003:See also
2908:growth.
2780:COVID-19
2749:Eurozone
2686:real GDP
2651:salaries
2621:COVID-19
2600:Business
2491:—
2421:, while
1958:Retail:
1827:shipping
1823:trucking
1682:economy.
1505:feedback
1312:Thailand
1281:W-shaped
1277:L-shaped
1273:U-shaped
1269:V-shaped
1212:real GDP
1178:real GDP
1075:pandemic
1073:(e.g. a
907:Business
879:a series
877:Part of
766:See also
545:Austrian
303:Monetary
292:Policies
123:Rational
118:Adaptive
44:a series
42:Part of
18:Downturn
9369:Namibia
8957:1887–88
8899:1860–61
8890:1853–54
8881:1845–46
8852:1833–34
8849:1828–29
8840:1822–23
8790:England
8682:Rolling
8568:Chronic
8422:(ed.).
8103:. CNN.
8084:31 July
7805:29 July
7775:19 July
7711:. CNN.
7582:The Age
7172:8 March
7083:leading
7075:16 June
6694:. 2024.
6676:. 2024.
6658:. 2024.
6641:. 2024.
6568:3435667
6211:19 July
5759:Reuters
5604:18 July
3861:31 July
3684:31 July
3658:31 July
3632:28 July
3605:28 July
3578:28 July
3479:27 July
3440:27 July
3401:27 July
3236:30 July
2987:1940s.
2976:Moody's
2762:Italian
2665:History
2631:mergers
2589:GDP gap
2435:capital
2415:limited
2258:bank's
1759:months.
1743:of the
1168:In the
1084:In the
787:Applied
584:Marxian
474:Schools
9394:Zambia
9354:Canada
9344:Belize
9281:Canada
9246:(2001)
9222:Canada
9169:Canada
9048:Canada
8719:Supply
8714:Demand
8687:Shapes
8677:Global
8587:demand
8512:Supply
8437:
8392:about
8341:
7663:23 May
7620:3 June
7051:
7029:
7021:
6959:
6951:
6800:
6771:
6744:
6715:
6591:months
6566:
6441:
6433:
5087:Forbes
4739:
4338:4 June
4303:
4250:
4195:
4034:
4007:13 May
3997:Medium
3943:
3833:
3739:
3467:
3428:
3389:
2958:) and
2869:
2862:
2860:
2854:
2848:
2842:
2836:
2829:
2827:
2820:
2818:
2758:German
2754:French
2670:Global
2613:Brexit
2378:-0.25%
2361:-5.06%
2344:-0.38%
2307:< 0
2157:down.”
2108:level.
2048:yield.
1672:export
1354:, and
1350:, the
1188:, and
1102:Canada
927:Retail
602:People
330:Models
298:Fiscal
275:Saving
135:Growth
9359:India
9286:India
9053:India
8709:Shock
8527:Model
8418:. In
7848:(PDF)
7841:(PDF)
7529:(PDF)
7518:(PDF)
7456:(PDF)
7449:(PDF)
7027:JSTOR
6957:S2CID
6904:(PDF)
6878:(PDF)
6852:(PDF)
6822:(PDF)
6541:(PDF)
6528:(PDF)
6439:S2CID
6241:6 May
6181:6 May
5185:(PDF)
5011:(PDF)
5004:(PDF)
4883:(PDF)
4748:(PDF)
4737:S2CID
4717:(PDF)
4665:(PDF)
4658:(PDF)
4493:Axios
4217:(PDF)
3777:(PDF)
3766:(PDF)
2463:model
2327:-4.8%
2310:-1.20
1934:wages
1436:is a
1324:money
1304:Korea
1045:is a
965:Shock
922:Money
917:Labor
423:NAIRU
341:AD–AS
336:IS–LM
199:Money
9099:1945
8831:1812
8495:and
8491:and
8435:OCLC
8373:2018
8339:ISSN
8282:2011
8252:2011
8226:2011
8203:2011
8140:2011
8113:2010
8086:2010
8022:2020
7991:2010
7939:2020
7887:2017
7856:2009
7807:2022
7795:NBER
7777:2021
7765:NBER
7747:2010
7721:2011
7694:2018
7665:2022
7622:2020
7594:2015
7565:2015
7537:2013
7498:2013
7464:2013
7432:2009
7354:2009
7302:2017
7271:2010
7216:Time
7174:2008
7148:2017
7115:2010
7077:2009
7049:ISBN
7019:ISSN
6992:2018
6949:ISSN
6834:2022
6798:ISBN
6769:ISBN
6742:ISBN
6713:ISBN
6639:CNBC
6621:2024
6564:SSRN
6549:2019
6510:2011
6431:ISSN
6393:2020
6243:2020
6213:2021
6183:2020
6153:2024
6108:2024
6064:2024
6033:2024
6002:2024
5990:CNBC
5971:2024
5820:2024
5771:2024
5637:2024
5606:2024
5560:2024
5530:2024
5500:2019
5423:2019
5393:2024
5343:2024
5312:2024
5281:2024
5250:2024
5219:2024
5148:2024
5099:2024
5068:2024
5019:2019
4987:2019
4956:2024
4865:2024
4808:2024
4783:2022
4756:2019
4699:2018
4673:2019
4627:2019
4582:2020
4340:2019
4301:ISBN
4280:2011
4248:ISBN
4225:2022
4193:ISBN
4162:2018
4131:2018
4100:2011
4069:2018
4032:ISBN
4009:2020
3978:2011
3941:ISBN
3920:2011
3894:2011
3863:2010
3831:ISBN
3785:2022
3737:ISBN
3686:2022
3660:2022
3634:2022
3607:2022
3580:2022
3538:2020
3509:2022
3481:2022
3465:ISSN
3442:2022
3426:ISSN
3403:2022
3387:ISSN
3358:2024
3325:2024
3292:2012
3238:2022
3213:2021
3146:2008
2982:The
2965:The
2950:The
2760:and
2747:The
2645:The
2519:The
2246:The
2207:The
2062:The
1856:U.S.
1839:The
1832:The
1825:and
1664:wars
1456:and
1279:and
1217:The
1100:and
1041:, a
489:Neo-
396:DSGE
90:CAGR
8331:doi
6939:hdl
6931:doi
6423:doi
6318:doi
6052:CNN
5919:doi
5717:doi
5446:doi
4854:doi
4729:doi
4185:doi
2657:or
2369:Yes
2352:Yes
2335:Yes
2318:Yes
2301:Yes
2137:GDP
2095:Oil
2051:An
1780:Fed
1776:ISM
1716:or
1115:or
1090:GDP
1079:IMF
1069:or
1037:In
494:New
238:SNA
187:NNI
182:GNI
177:GDP
9413::
8445:,
8441:,
8359:.
8337:.
8325:.
8321:.
8302:.
8268:.
8012:.
8008:.
7981:.
7977:.
7929:.
7925:.
7877:.
7873:.
7797:.
7793:.
7763:.
7673:^
7637:.
7580:,
7520:.
7506:^
7488:.
7484:.
7472:^
7409:^
7381:^
7340:.
7310:^
7292:.
7288:.
7247:^
7214:.
7138:.
7132:.
7105:.
7101:.
7079:.
7025:.
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7013:.
7009:.
6982:.
6978:.
6955:.
6947:.
6937:.
6927:25
6925:.
6921:.
6886:51
6884:.
6880:.
6860:51
6858:.
6854:.
6824:.
6736:.
6690:.
6672:.
6637:.
6611:.
6607:.
6588:.
6584:.
6536:.
6530:.
6496:.
6478:.
6437:.
6429:.
6419:58
6417:.
6413:.
6401:^
6379:.
6316:.
6297:.
6278:.
6260:.
6229:.
6199:.
6173:.
6169:.
6143:.
6125:.
6054:.
6050:.
6019:.
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5988:.
5957:.
5939:.
5915:38
5913:.
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5875:.
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