269:"Cold arctic air gripped western Europe in the first three weeks of December. Two major snowstorms, icy conditions, and frigid temperatures wreaked havoc across much of the region...The harsh winter weather was attributed to a negative Arctic Oscillation, which is a climate pattern that influences weather in the Northern Hemisphere. A very persistent, strong ridge of high pressure, or 'blocking system', near Greenland allowed cold Arctic air to slide south into Europe. Europe was not the only region in the Northern Hemisphere affected by the Arctic Oscillation. A large snow storm and frigid temperatures affected much of the Midwest United States on December 10–13...."
315:. This kind of snowstorm activity is considered to be highly anomalous, and as extreme as the negative Arctic oscillation value itself. These negative values of the AO during 2010 and following into the next winter allowed colder air to penetrate much further south than usual into sub-tropical South Florida which brought record breaking low temperatures and months registered in many locations and the coolest average monthly minimum temperatures for February, March and December that year in the tropical beach getaway of
31:
1602:
131:
193:
181:
1614:
86:
77:(NAO) is a close relative of the Arctic oscillation. There is debate over whether one or the other is more fundamentally representative of the atmosphere's dynamics. The NAO may be identified in a more physically meaningful way, which may carry more impact on measurable effects of changes in the atmosphere.
322:
The greatest negative value for the Arctic oscillation since 1950 in
January was −3.767 in 1977, which coincided with the coldest mean January temperature in New York City, Washington, D.C., Baltimore, and many other mid-Atlantic locations in that span of time, although the January Arctic oscillation
278:
A further, quite graphic illustration of the effects of the negative phase of the oscillation occurred in
February 2010. In that month, the Arctic oscillation reached its most negative monthly mean value at about −4.266, in the entire post-1950 era (the period of accurate record-keeping). That month
143:
Over most of the past century, the Arctic oscillation alternated between positive and negative phases. Data using a 60-day running mean has implied the oscillation has been trending to more of a positive phase since the 1970s, though it has trended to a more neutral state in the last decade. The
110:
The degree to which Arctic air penetrates into middle latitudes is related to the AO index, which is defined by surface atmospheric pressure patterns. When the AO index is positive, surface pressure is high in the polar region. This helps the middle latitude jet stream to blow strongly and
93:
The Arctic oscillation appears as a ringlike (or "annular") pattern of sea-level pressure anomalies centered at the poles. The presence of continents and large landmasses disrupts the ringlike structure at the Arctic pole, while anomalies surrounding the
Antarctic pole are nearly circular.
105:
explained the mechanism by which the Arctic oscillation affects weather at points so distant from the Arctic, as follows (note, however, that Hansen's explanation is erroneous: pressure in the Arctic is low in the positive AO phase, which configuration also enhances the jet stream):
111:
consistently from west to east, thus keeping cold Arctic air locked in the polar region. When the AO index is negative, there tends to be low pressure in the polar region, weaker zonal winds, and greater movement of frigid polar air into middle latitudes."
148:
between negative and positive values on daily, monthly, seasonal and annual time scales, although meteorologists have attained high levels of predictive accuracy for shorter term forecasts. The correlation between actual observations and the 7-day mean
1457:
323:
has been negative only 60.6% of the time between 1950 and 2010, nine of the ten coldest
Januarys in New York City since 1950 have coincided with negative Arctic oscillations.
252:
Climatologists are now routinely invoking the Arctic oscillation in their official public explanations for extremes of weather. The following statement from the
119:
anomalies from latitudes 20° N to 90° N. The anomalies are projected onto the Arctic oscillation loading pattern, which is defined as the first
498:
799:
413:
123:(EOF) of monthly mean 1000 hPa geopotential height during the 1979-2000 period. The time series is then normalized with the monthly mean index's
1796:
296:
927:
292:
253:
1651:
284:
751:
1238:
902:
804:
1000:
833:
66:
or
Southern Annular Mode (SAM). The index varies over time with no particular periodicity, and is characterized by non-seasonal
1528:
980:
17:
1741:
1511:
1397:
1736:
1847:
1644:
1586:
1516:
1216:
484:
425:
1842:
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1716:
1701:
879:
206:
389:
249:
colder than usual. Weather patterns in the negative phase are in general "opposite" to those of the positive phase.
1543:
1533:
1186:
1043:
937:
922:
264:
which uses the phrase "negative Arctic
Oscillation" four times, is very representative of this increasing tendency:
159:
This zonally symmetric seesaw between sea level pressures in polar and temperate latitudes was first identified by
794:
789:
97:
The Arctic oscillation is believed by climatologists to be causally related to (and thus partially predictive of)
1506:
892:
691:"The snow storm of 8 March 2010 in Catalonia (Spain): a paradigmatic wet-snow event with a high societal impact"
549:
524:
1384:
1063:
1015:
851:
690:
338:
120:
502:
1852:
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70:
anomalies of one sign in the Arctic, balanced by anomalies of opposite sign centered at about 37–45° N.
1721:
1617:
1356:
1263:
1228:
1101:
440:
237:
as it would during the negative phase of the oscillation. This keeps much of the United States east of the
209:
describes the effects of the Arctic oscillation in some detail. In the positive phase, higher pressure at
1786:
1081:
1023:
826:
1801:
1771:
1676:
1076:
368:
74:
1776:
1407:
912:
246:
470:
1696:
1223:
864:
134:
Arctic
Oscillation time series for the extended, December to March (DJFM), winter season 1899–2011.
757:
213:
drives ocean storms farther north, and changes in the circulation pattern bring wetter weather to
1791:
897:
1556:
1211:
819:
790:
Monthly
Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode (NAM) Index or Arctic Oscillation (AO) Index 1850–2013
574:"The Arctic oscillation signature in the wintertime geopotential height and temperature fields"
348:
150:
58:) is a weather phenomenon at the Arctic pole north of 55 degrees latitude. It is an important
1686:
1681:
1191:
1178:
1168:
1121:
907:
795:
Daily
Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode (NAM) Index or Arctic Oscillation (AO) Index 1948–2013
457:
333:
63:
1581:
733:
705:
655:
585:
536:
343:
304:
164:
153:
8:
1761:
1751:
1660:
1482:
1392:
1248:
975:
525:"Seasonal and Irregular Variations of the Northern Hemisphere Sea-Level Pressure Profile"
353:
288:
280:
116:
98:
59:
709:
659:
589:
540:
1571:
1141:
945:
869:
859:
671:
573:
124:
67:
770:
National
Weather Service Climate Prediction Center and NWS Forecast Office, as of 2010
1821:
1566:
1561:
1369:
1233:
1053:
1038:
955:
675:
554:
233:. In the positive phase, frigid winter air does not extend as far into the middle of
1427:
985:
713:
663:
593:
544:
308:
1781:
1605:
1477:
1206:
1116:
1033:
1028:
238:
102:
299:
deposited 20.9 inches (530 mm) on February 25–26. Another snowstorm swept
1402:
1364:
1153:
960:
887:
718:
1836:
1726:
1706:
1551:
1467:
1452:
1281:
1243:
1146:
1111:
1071:
950:
917:
784:
641:"The February 2010 Arctic oscillation Index and its stratospheric connection"
640:
558:
363:
295:
precipitated 19.5 inches (500 mm) on February 9–10. In New York City, a
234:
230:
226:
160:
115:
The Arctic oscillation index is defined using the daily or monthly 1000 hPa
62:
for the Northern Hemisphere. The southern hemisphere analogue is called the
1806:
1422:
1314:
1276:
1253:
965:
358:
210:
1816:
1576:
1487:
1462:
1437:
1334:
1329:
1324:
1196:
1136:
393:
222:
619:
30:
1711:
1629:
1301:
1271:
995:
145:
598:
1417:
1341:
1319:
1091:
990:
970:
300:
242:
130:
667:
316:
1306:
1086:
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192:
1158:
1766:
1746:
1447:
1296:
1286:
1131:
1126:
1106:
1096:
438:
414:
Ambaum et al. "Arctic Oscillation or North Atlantic Oscillation?"
180:
85:
811:
1811:
1472:
1442:
1412:
1374:
1346:
1291:
1005:
842:
312:
279:
was characterized by three separate historic snowstorms in the
214:
1432:
1163:
499:"CPC – Monitoring & Data: Daily Arctic Oscillation Index"
571:
550:
10.1175/1520-0469(1951)008<0052:SAIVOT>2.0.CO;2
485:"CPC - Teleconnections: Arctic Oscillation Loading Pattern"
426:"CPC - Teleconnections: Arctic Oscillation Loading Pattern"
753:
SERVICIO METEOROLÓGICO NACIONAL NORMALES CLIMATOLÓGICAS
439:
Hansen, James; Reto Ruedy; Makiko Sato; Ken Lo (2009).
390:"Arctic Oscillation (AO) time series, 1899 – June 2002"
34:
Positive and negative phases of the Arctic Oscillation
648:
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
612:
572:
Thompson, David W. J.; John Michael Wallace (1998).
319:, up to over 4C below the climate period averages.
491:
441:"If It's That Warm, How Come It's So Damned Cold?"
1834:
928:United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea
311:) on March 8, depositing 60 cm of snow in
254:National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
1797:Pacific–North American teleconnection pattern
1645:
827:
225:, as well as drier conditions to the western
163:and named in 1998 by David W.J. Thompson and
89:The loading pattern of the Arctic Oscillation
800:NOAA 3-month running mean AO Index 1950–2009
565:
303:as well as neighbouring French departments (
1239:Effects of global warming on marine mammals
903:Chief Directorate of the Northern Sea Route
620:"State of the Climate | December 2010"
198:AO December to March precipitation pattern.
1652:
1638:
834:
820:
764:
516:
432:
717:
698:Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
597:
548:
186:AO December to March temperature pattern.
1659:
287:precipitated 25 inches (640 mm) on
129:
84:
29:
14:
1835:
688:
639:Ripesi, Patrizio; et al. (2012).
638:
522:
27:Climatic cycle over Earth's North Pole
1633:
815:
805:Arctic roots of 'upside-down' weather
735:2010 South Florida Weather in Review
1742:Equatorial Indian Ocean oscillation
1613:
1458:Northern indigenous Russian peoples
156:AO forecasts is approximately 0.9.
24:
1517:Arctic Refuge drilling controversy
785:Overview of Arctic Climate Indices
689:Llasat, M.C.; et al. (2014).
262:State of the Climate December 2010
25:
1864:
1732:Diurnal air temperature variation
1717:Cataclysmic pole shift hypothesis
1702:Atlantic multidecadal oscillation
841:
807:BBC news, Tuesday, 5 January 2010
777:
273:
207:National Snow and Ice Data Center
1612:
1601:
1600:
1187:Arctic Climate Impact Assessment
1044:Queen Elizabeth Islands Subplate
923:Territorial claims in the Arctic
191:
179:
52:Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode
893:Arctic cooperation and politics
744:
726:
682:
632:
241:warmer than normal, but leaves
1001:Populated places in the Arctic
477:
418:
407:
382:
339:Climate variability and change
138:
80:
13:
1:
1524:Pollution in the Arctic Ocean
1049:Southeast Bathurst Fault Zone
375:
258:National Climatic Data Center
144:oscillation still fluctuates
121:empirical orthogonal function
1737:El Niño–Southern Oscillation
1229:Climate change in the Arctic
981:Impact craters of the Arctic
578:Geophysical Research Letters
7:
1787:Pacific decadal oscillation
1082:Canadian Arctic Archipelago
1024:Canadian Arctic Rift System
326:
60:mode of climate variability
10:
1869:
1802:Quasi-biennial oscillation
1772:North Atlantic oscillation
1677:Antarctic Circumpolar Wave
1077:British Arctic Territories
523:Lorenz, Edward N. (1951).
369:North Atlantic oscillation
283:of the United States. The
170:
75:North Atlantic oscillation
1848:Environment of the Arctic
1777:North Pacific Oscillation
1757:Madden–Julian oscillation
1667:
1595:
1542:
1499:
1383:
1355:
1262:
1177:
1062:
1014:
936:
913:Inuit Circumpolar Council
878:
850:
719:10.5194/nhess-14-427-2014
1843:Regional climate effects
1722:Dansgaard–Oeschger event
1697:Atlantic Equatorial mode
1224:Arctic methane emissions
1792:Pacific Meridional Mode
898:Arctic Ocean Conference
291:on February 5–6, and a
99:global weather patterns
1557:Arctic shipping routes
529:Journal of Meteorology
465:Cite journal requires
349:North Atlantic Current
151:Global Forecast System
135:
113:
101:. NASA climatologist
90:
35:
1687:Arctic dipole anomaly
1682:Antarctic oscillation
1512:Petroleum exploration
1192:Arctic dipole anomaly
1169:North American Arctic
1122:Northwest Territories
908:Ilulissat Declaration
334:Antarctic oscillation
133:
108:
88:
64:Antarctic oscillation
48:Northern Annular Mode
33:
18:Northern Annular Mode
1853:Climate oscillations
1661:Climate oscillations
1582:Transpolar Sea Route
344:John Michael Wallace
305:Languedoc-Roussillon
165:John Michael Wallace
1762:Milankovitch cycles
1752:Indian Ocean Dipole
1483:Arctic Winter Games
1249:Polar amplification
1217:ecology and history
976:Greenland ice sheet
710:2014NHESS..14..427L
660:2012QJRMS.138.1961R
590:1998GeoRL..25.1297T
541:1951JAtS....8...52L
354:Polar amplification
289:Baltimore, Maryland
281:mid-Atlantic region
117:geopotential height
1707:Earth's axial tilt
1692:Arctic oscillation
1572:Northern Sea Route
1202:Arctic oscillation
946:Arctic Archipelago
870:History of whaling
860:Arctic exploration
654:(669): 1961–1969.
136:
125:standard deviation
91:
68:sea-level pressure
40:Arctic oscillation
36:
1830:
1829:
1822:True polar wander
1817:Solar variability
1627:
1626:
1587:Search and rescue
1567:Northwest Passage
1562:Northeast Passage
1507:Natural resources
1398:Subarctic peoples
1370:Arctic vegetation
1234:Climate of Alaska
1054:Ungava Fault Zone
1039:Innuitian orogeny
956:Arctic Cordillera
599:10.1029/98GL00950
16:(Redirected from
1860:
1654:
1647:
1640:
1631:
1630:
1616:
1615:
1604:
1603:
1491:
1490:(New Year's Day)
986:Innuitian Region
836:
829:
822:
813:
812:
771:
768:
762:
761:
756:, archived from
748:
742:
741:
740:
730:
724:
723:
721:
695:
686:
680:
679:
645:
636:
630:
629:
627:
626:
616:
610:
609:
607:
606:
601:
584:(9): 1297–1300.
569:
563:
562:
552:
520:
514:
513:
511:
510:
501:. Archived from
495:
489:
488:
481:
475:
474:
468:
463:
461:
453:
451:
450:
445:
436:
430:
429:
422:
416:
411:
405:
404:
402:
401:
392:. Archived from
386:
195:
183:
21:
1868:
1867:
1863:
1862:
1861:
1859:
1858:
1857:
1833:
1832:
1831:
1826:
1782:Orbital forcing
1669:
1663:
1658:
1628:
1623:
1591:
1577:Polar air route
1538:
1529:Protected areas
1495:
1489:
1379:
1351:
1258:
1173:
1117:Northern Canada
1058:
1034:Greenland Plate
1029:Eurekan orogeny
1010:
932:
874:
865:Arctic research
846:
840:
810:
780:
775:
774:
769:
765:
750:
749:
745:
738:
732:
731:
727:
693:
687:
683:
668:10.1002/qj.1935
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637:
633:
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570:
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423:
419:
412:
408:
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329:
276:
265:
239:Rocky Mountains
203:
202:
201:
200:
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196:
188:
187:
184:
173:
141:
103:James E. Hansen
83:
28:
23:
22:
15:
12:
11:
5:
1866:
1856:
1855:
1850:
1845:
1828:
1827:
1825:
1824:
1819:
1814:
1809:
1804:
1799:
1794:
1789:
1784:
1779:
1774:
1769:
1764:
1759:
1754:
1749:
1747:Glacial cycles
1744:
1739:
1734:
1729:
1724:
1719:
1714:
1709:
1704:
1699:
1694:
1689:
1684:
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1665:
1664:
1657:
1656:
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1609:
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1584:
1579:
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1559:
1554:
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1546:
1540:
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1534:Transportation
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1521:
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1509:
1503:
1501:
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1445:
1440:
1435:
1430:
1425:
1420:
1415:
1410:
1405:
1400:
1395:
1393:Arctic peoples
1389:
1387:
1381:
1380:
1378:
1377:
1372:
1367:
1365:Arctic ecology
1361:
1359:
1353:
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1337:
1332:
1327:
1322:
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1226:
1221:
1220:
1219:
1214:
1207:Arctic sea ice
1204:
1199:
1194:
1189:
1183:
1181:
1175:
1174:
1172:
1171:
1166:
1161:
1156:
1151:
1150:
1149:
1142:Russian Arctic
1139:
1134:
1129:
1124:
1119:
1114:
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1089:
1084:
1079:
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1020:
1018:
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1008:
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998:
993:
988:
983:
978:
973:
971:Arctic Cyclone
968:
963:
961:Arctic ecology
958:
953:
948:
942:
940:
934:
933:
931:
930:
925:
920:
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905:
900:
895:
890:
888:Arctic Council
884:
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867:
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854:
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839:
838:
831:
824:
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809:
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778:External links
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704:(2): 427–441.
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467:|journal=
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346:
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297:separate storm
275:
274:Events of 2010
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146:stochastically
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26:
9:
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1728:
1727:Diurnal cycle
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1552:Arctic Bridge
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1807:Seasonal lag
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1670:oscillations
1611:
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1488:Quviasukvik
1277:Beluga whale
1254:Polar vortex
1201:
966:Arctic Ocean
766:
758:the original
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623:. Retrieved
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535:(1): 52–59.
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503:the original
493:
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458:cite journal
447:. Retrieved
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398:. Retrieved
394:the original
384:
359:Polar vortex
321:
293:second storm
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247:Newfoundland
211:midlatitudes
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43:
39:
37:
1618:WikiProject
1197:Arctic haze
1137:Nunatsiavut
285:first storm
223:Scandinavia
139:Periodicity
81:Description
1837:Categories
1712:Bond event
1302:Polar bear
1272:Arctic fox
1102:Inuvialuit
996:North Pole
880:Government
625:2012-01-29
605:2010-08-28
509:2012-01-29
449:2013-07-17
400:2012-01-21
376:References
1544:Transport
1428:Icelandic
1418:Karelians
1342:Snowy owl
1092:Greenland
991:Nordicity
938:Geography
676:122729063
559:1520-0469
301:Catalonia
243:Greenland
1606:Category
1478:Yukaghir
1438:Gwich'in
1408:Chukotka
1307:Reindeer
1087:Finnmark
327:See also
229:and the
219:Scotland
154:ensemble
1812:Seasons
1767:Monsoon
1668:Climate
1500:Economy
1448:Koryaks
1403:Chukchi
1385:Culture
1315:bearded
1297:Narwhal
1287:Lemming
1212:decline
1179:Climate
1132:Nunavut
1127:Nunavik
1107:Karelia
1097:Iceland
1064:Regions
1016:Geology
852:History
706:Bibcode
656:Bibcode
586:Bibcode
537:Bibcode
171:Impacts
1473:Yakuts
1468:Selkup
1453:Nenets
1443:Khanty
1413:Evenks
1375:Tundra
1347:Walrus
1335:ringed
1330:ribbon
1325:hooded
1292:Muskox
1006:Tundra
845:topics
843:Arctic
674:
557:
317:Cancún
313:Girona
215:Alaska
1433:Inuit
1357:Flora
1311:Seal
1264:Fauna
1164:Yukon
1159:Sápmi
1154:Sakha
1147:North
739:(PDF)
694:(PDF)
672:S2CID
644:(PDF)
444:(PDF)
46:) or
1463:Sami
1423:Komi
1320:harp
1112:Komi
555:ISSN
471:help
245:and
221:and
205:The
73:The
38:The
714:doi
664:doi
652:138
594:doi
545:doi
256:'s
56:NAM
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54:(
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