355:
470:, suggested that the root cause of depressed economic conditions was a shortage of job opportunities relative to the population level, and that the most popular solutions proposed at the time (e.g. increasing low-income housing availability, or reducing real estate taxes) counter-intuitively would worsen the situation by increasing this relative shortage. The paper further argued that measures to reduce the shortage—such as converting land use from housing to industry, or increasing real estate taxes to spur property redevelopment—would be similarly counter-effective.
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461:
does the model. When only a single topic is being discussed, each participant in a conversation employs a different mental model to interpret the subject. Fundamental assumptions differ but are never brought into the open. Goals are different and are left unstated. It is little wonder that compromise takes so long. And it is not surprising that consensus leads to laws and programs that fail in their objectives or produce new difficulties greater than those that have been relieved.
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478:'Counterintuitive Behavior of Social Systems' also sketched a model of world dynamics that correlated population, food production, industrial development, pollution, availability of natural resources, and quality of life, and attempted future projections of those values under various assumptions. Forrester presented this model more fully in his 1971 book
409:, where he was Germeshausen and after his retirement continued until 1989 as Professor Emeritus and Senior Lecturer. In 1961 was published his seminal book Industrial Dynamics the first work in what later is named System Dynamics. The work is a result of analyzing operations of Sprague Electric in Massachusetts. The study was the first model of
455:
Forrester's 1971 paper 'Counterintuitive
Behavior of Social Systems' argued that the use of computerized system models to inform social policy was superior to simple debate, both in generating insight into the root causes of problems and in understanding the likely effects of proposed solutions. He
460:
The mental model is fuzzy. It is incomplete. It is imprecisely stated. Furthermore, within one individual, a mental model changes with time and even during the flow of a single conversation. The human mind assembles a few relationships to fit the context of a discussion. As the subject shifts so
465:
The paper summarized the results of a previous study on the system dynamics governing the economies of urban centers, which showed "how industry, housing, and people interact with each other as a city grows and decays." The study's findings, presented more fully in
Forrester's 1969 book
1080:
318:, where "his early interest in electricity was spurred, perhaps, by the fact that the ranch had none. While in high school, he built a wind-driven, 12-volt electrical system using old car parts—it gave the ranch its first electric power."
1084:
569:"for his perfecting of core memory technology into a practical computer memory device; for fundamental contributions to early computer systems design and development". In 2006, he was inducted into the Operational Research Hall of Fame.
1067:
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1222:
646:
1989, 'The
Beginning of System Dynamics'. Banquet Talk at the international meeting of the System Dynamics Society, Stuttgart, Germany, July 13, 1989. MIT System Dynamics Group Memo D.
413:
proving that ups and downs of inventory is due to fluctuations in demand, revealing internal differences that his continuous approach could detect. The phenomenon was called the
393:. Whirlwind began operation in 1951, the first digital computer to operate in real time and to use video displays for output. It subsequently evolved into the air defence system
38:
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1208:
296:. After his initial efforts in industrial simulation, Forrester attempted to simulate urban dynamics and then world dynamics, developing a model with the
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Jay Wright
Forrester Papers, MC 439, box X. Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Institute Archives and Special Collections, Cambridge, Massachusetts.
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by exploiting the magnetic properties of materials to perform switching and amplification. His team is also believed to have created the first
437:
was the first book
Forrester wrote using system dynamics to analyze industrial business cycles. Several years later, interactions with former
1018:
2607:
155:
845:
448:, which sparked an ongoing debate on the feasibility of modeling broader social problems. The book went on to influence the video game
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1888:
1182:
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438:
377:, and developed the "multi-coordinate digital information storage device" (coincident-current system), the forerunner of today's
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During the late 1940s and early 50s, Forrester continued research in electrical and computer engineering at MIT, heading the
326:
216:
98:
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1930:
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and gained his master’s in 1945 with a thesis on 'Hydraulic
Servomechanism Developments'. In 1949 he was inducted into
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89:
1002:
948:
793:
394:
306:. Today system dynamics is most often applied to research and consulting in organizations and other social systems.
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development (between 1955 and 1975). It was part of a family of related technologies which bridged the gap between
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1999, 'System
Dynamics: the Foundation Under Systems Thinking'. Cambridge, MA: Sloan School of Management.
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in 1970. He later met with the Club of Rome to discuss issues surrounding global sustainability; the book
369:. Trying to design an aircraft simulator, the group moved away from an initial analog design to develop a
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354:
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906:
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Jay Wright
Forrester (1918–2016): His Contribution to the Concept of Overshoot in Socioeconomic Systems
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659:
1996, 'System
Dynamics and K–12 Teachers: a lecture at the University of Virginia School of Education'.
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545:. Forrester continued working in applications of system dynamics and promoting its use in education.
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1992, 'System
Dynamics and Learner-Centered-Learning in Kindergarten through 12th Grade Education.'
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characterized normal debate and discussion as being dominated by inexact mental models:
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Forrester received his Bachelor of Science in Electrical Engineering in 1939 from the
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1998, 'Designing the Future'. Lecture at Universidad de Sevilla, December 15, 1998.
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1993, 'System Dynamics and the Lessons of 35 Years', in Kenyon B. Greene (ed.)
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2016, 'Learning through System Dynamics as preparation for the 21st Century',
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219:, entering as a graduate student in 1939, and eventually retiring in 1989.
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1958. 'Industrial Dynamics – A Major Breakthrough for Decision Makers',
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from the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences
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1935:
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520:
429:, which deals with the simulation of interactions between objects in
382:
292:, which deals with the simulation of interactions between objects in
262:
871:(5 Oct 2022) Fons et origo: reflections on the 60th anniversary of
1866:
528:
449:
37:
1905:
728:
David Lane; John Sterman (2019). "Jay W. Forrester 1918–2016".
483:
341:(ΗΚΝ) the Electrical & Computer Engineering Honor Society.
809:
Evans, Christopher (July 1983). "Jay W. Forrester Interview".
417:
and today more frequently described as the "bullwhip effect".
565:
Computer Pioneer Award. In 1995, he was made a Fellow of the
2593:
Members of the United States National Academy of Engineering
907:"Jay W. Forrester Dies at 98; a Pioneer in Computer Models"
628:
1968, 'Market Growth as Influenced by Capital Investment',
558:
639:, Vol. 2, December 1971, pp. 109–140. Also available
779:
846:"A Genius Has Left Us -- His Name Was Jay W. Forrester"
519:
took on modeling the complex interactions of the world
727:
2515:
1070:
recipients of IEEE's highest award, established 1917.
780:
Magnus Ramage; Karen Shipp, eds. (19 February 2020).
635:
1971, 'Counterintuitive Behavior of Social Systems',
203:(July 14, 1918 – November 16, 2016) was an American
994:
Unit Operations: An Approach to Videogame Criticism
963:
482:, notable for serving as the initial basis for the
940:Virtual Worlds: A Journey in Hype and Hyperreality
925:Multicoordinate digital information storage device
731:Memorial Tributes: National Academy of Engineering
381:. In 1948-49 the Whirlwind team created the first
238:project. There he is credited as a co-inventor of
1151:(1973) World Dynamics: Measurement without Data.
1125:"Jay W. Forrester | Computer History Museum"
2539:
936:
843:
1882:
1417:
1216:
1155:. 1973;83(332):1156-1183. doi:10.2307/2230846
775:
773:
771:
769:
2583:Massachusetts Institute of Technology alumni
1432:Subfields of and cyberneticians involved in
1107:"Jay W. Forrester— CHM Fellow Award Winner"
309:
156:National Medal of Technology and Innovation
1889:
1875:
1424:
1410:
1223:
1209:
990:
766:
577:Forrester wrote several books, including:
234:. After the war he headed MIT's Whirlwind
36:
1032:
964:Lee; Padmanabhan; Zhang (15 April 1997).
654:A Systems-Based Approach to Policymaking
561:highest award. In 1982, he received the
353:
276:Later, Forrester was a professor at the
2588:National Medal of Technology recipients
1230:
802:
656:, New York: Springer, pp. 199–240.
325:. He went on to graduate school at the
300:along the lines of that popularized in
288:. He has been credited as a founder of
2618:Valdemar Poulsen Gold Medal recipients
2598:MIT Sloan School of Management faculty
2540:
1049:
966:"The Bullwhip Effect in Supply Chains"
585:. Waltham, MA: Pegasus Communications.
2603:University of Nebraska–Lincoln alumni
1870:
1405:
1204:
1189:"The many careers of Jay Forrester,"
1011:
918:
901:
899:
897:
837:
808:
723:
721:
349:
327:Massachusetts Institute of Technology
217:Massachusetts Institute of Technology
99:Massachusetts Institute of Technology
2498:
844:Luis E. Romero (November 18, 2016).
611:Collected Papers of Jay W. Forrester
541:). It was the start of the field of
531:, which was controversial (see also
2608:People from Custer County, Nebraska
2440:Systems theory in political science
1896:
1061:
863:
400:
249:during the most explosive years of
13:
894:
878:
811:Annals of the History of Computing
718:
420:
314:Forrester was born on a farm near
14:
2629:
1162:
1046:documentation of a computer model
625:, Vol. 36, No. 4, pp. 37–66.
617:His articles and papers include:
592:, 2nd ed. Pegasus Communications.
395:Semi-Automatic Ground Environment
2613:Howard N. Potts Medal recipients
2525:
2497:
2485:
2474:
2473:
943:. Benjamin Woolley. p. 46.
891:, 2005. Accessed August 18, 2013
553:In 1972, Forrester received the
405:In 1956, Forrester moved to the
215:. He spent his entire career at
2573:American operations researchers
2558:20th-century American inventors
1503:Cybernetics in the Soviet Union
1142:
1104:
1098:
1073:
984:
957:
930:
572:
473:
2578:IEEE Medal of Honor recipients
2430:Systems theory in anthropology
970:MIT Sloan Review of Management
700:
632:, Vol. IX, No. 2, Winter 1968.
407:MIT Sloan School of Management
323:University of Nebraska–Lincoln
278:MIT Sloan School of Management
188:MIT Sloan School of Management
90:University of Nebraska–Lincoln
16:American operations researcher
1:
2435:Systems theory in archaeology
1183:Biography of Jay W. Forrester
1178:Mathematics Genealogy Project
1169:Selected papers by Forrester.
1017:Jay Wright Forrester (1971) '
693:
683:DYNAMO (programming language)
425:Forrester was the founder of
1029:, December 1971, pp.109-140.
707:Jay W. Forrester 1995 Fellow
672:, Vol. 32, pp. 187–203.
630:Industrial Management Review
7:
2563:American systems scientists
676:
494:in their popular 1972 book
284:describing fluctuations in
230:as a research assistant to
10:
2634:
1483:Computational neuroscience
1019:Behavior of Social Systems
788:. Springer. pp. 97–.
280:, where he introduced the
242:, the predominant form of
18:
2469:
2448:
2422:
2134:
2067:
2019:
2010:
1974:
1931:Coupled human–environment
1904:
1566:
1440:
1238:
937:Benjamin Woolley (1993).
613:. Pegasus Communications.
599:. Pegasus Communications.
548:
389:, a "jumping ball" on an
344:
269:, a "jumping ball" on an
194:
183:
176:
135:
109:
85:
66:
44:
35:
28:
1656:Charles Geoffrey Vickers
1543:Second-order cybernetics
1081:"Computer Pioneer Award"
1044:. Pegasus Communications
310:Early life and education
2264:Charles A. S. Hall
1518:Engineering cybernetics
1448:Artificial intelligence
885:Biography Jay Forrester
869:System Dynamics Review
823:10.1109/mahc.1983.10081
623:Harvard Business Review
567:Computer History Museum
444:led Forrester to write
361:core memory, circa 1951
329:, where he worked with
164:Computer History Museum
2184:Ludwig von Bertalanffy
1841:Walter Bradford Cannon
1731:Ludwig von Bertalanffy
1586:Alfred Radcliffe-Brown
1533:Management cybernetics
1458:Biomedical cybernetics
1453:Biological cybernetics
1312:Edward Victor Appleton
670:System Dynamics Review
463:
362:
78:Concord, Massachusetts
2461:Principia Cybernetica
2174:Anthony Stafford Beer
2044:Sociotechnical system
1801:Anthony Stafford Beer
1636:Ernst von Glasersfeld
1324:John Hays Hammond Jr.
1282:Julius Adams Stratton
1191:MIT Technology Review
1038:Jay Wright Forrester
606:. Wright-Allen Press.
590:Principles of Systems
458:
373:. The team perfected
357:
151:Howard N. Potts Medal
2324:Mihajlo D. Mesarovic
2299:Edward Norton Lorenz
2254:Jay Wright Forrester
2059:World-systems theory
2034:Earth system science
1831:Valentin Braitenberg
1711:Jay Wright Forrester
1372:Jay Wright Forrester
1330:Harold Alden Wheeler
1318:George C. Southworth
1246:Vladimir K. Zworykin
1174:Jay Wright Forrester
915:, November 17, 2016.
538:The Limits to Growth
497:The Limits to Growth
375:magnetic-core memory
303:The Limits to Growth
240:magnetic core memory
226:Forrester worked on
201:Jay Wright Forrester
122:Random-access memory
30:Jay Wright Forrester
19:For other uses, see
2199:Kenneth E. Boulding
1856:William Grey Walter
1796:Sergei P. Kurdyumov
1756:N. Katherine Hayles
1538:Medical cybernetics
1498:Conversation theory
1232:IEEE Medal of Honor
1068:IEEE Medal of Honor
1023:Theory and Decision
991:Ian Bogost (2008).
927:, US patent 2736880
873:Industrial Dynamics
637:Theory and Decision
583:Industrial dynamics
555:IEEE Medal of Honor
507:, a founder of the
435:Industrial Dynamics
209:management theorist
143:IEEE Medal of Honor
21:Forrester (surname)
2568:Computer engineers
2329:James Grier Miller
2284:Faina M. Kirillova
2244:Heinz von Foerster
2234:Edsger W. Dijkstra
2194:Alexander Bogdanov
2179:Richard E. Bellman
2154:William Ross Ashby
1836:William Ross Ashby
1761:Natalia Bekhtereva
1736:Maleyka Abbaszadeh
1676:Heinz von Foerster
1601:Buckminster Fuller
1528:Information theory
1478:Catastrophe theory
1294:Emory Leon Chaffee
1264:William L. Everitt
1252:Walter R. G. Baker
912:The New York Times
712:2015-01-03 at the
385:in the history of
363:
350:Whirlwind projects
265:in the history of
2513:
2512:
2394:Manuela M. Veloso
2309:Humberto Maturana
2249:Stephanie Forrest
2219:C. West Churchman
2144:Russell L. Ackoff
2130:
2129:
2002:Positive feedback
1997:Negative feedback
1864:
1863:
1786:Ranulph Glanville
1701:Jakob von UexkĂĽll
1681:Humberto Maturana
1641:Francis Heylighen
1399:
1398:
1342:Charles H. Townes
387:computer graphics
367:Whirlwind project
359:Project Whirlwind
316:Anselmo, Nebraska
267:computer graphics
213:systems scientist
205:computer engineer
198:
197:
178:Scientific career
70:November 16, 2016
59:Anselmo, Nebraska
2625:
2530:
2529:
2528:
2521:
2501:
2500:
2489:
2477:
2476:
2389:Francisco Varela
2121:Systems thinking
2054:Urban metabolism
2017:
2016:
1891:
1884:
1877:
1868:
1867:
1851:Warren McCulloch
1826:Valentin Turchin
1776:Pyotr Grigorenko
1721:John N. Warfield
1646:Francisco Varela
1606:Charles François
1576:Alexander Lerner
1553:Sociocybernetics
1473:Neurocybernetics
1426:
1419:
1412:
1403:
1402:
1384:Rudolf E. Kálmán
1348:Gordon Kidd Teal
1276:John V. L. Hogan
1225:
1218:
1211:
1202:
1201:
1156:
1153:Economic Journal
1146:
1140:
1139:
1137:
1136:
1127:. Archived from
1122:
1120:
1118:
1113:on April 3, 2015
1109:. Archived from
1102:
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1095:
1093:
1092:
1083:. Archived from
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786:Systems Thinking
777:
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763:
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753:
751:
743:
741:
739:
725:
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704:
415:Forrester effect
401:Forrester effect
371:digital computer
282:Forrester effect
251:digital computer
236:digital computer
169:
160:
147:
127:Forrester effect
73:
54:
52:
40:
26:
25:
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2622:
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2536:
2532:Systems science
2526:
2524:
2516:
2514:
2509:
2465:
2444:
2418:
2359:Anatol Rapoport
2344:Talcott Parsons
2319:Donella Meadows
2294:Allenna Leonard
2214:Mary Cartwright
2209:Kathleen Carley
2169:Gregory Bateson
2164:Béla H. Bánáthy
2126:
2063:
2012:
2006:
1992:Limiting factor
1987:Leverage points
1970:
1908:
1900:
1898:Systems science
1895:
1865:
1860:
1816:Talcott Parsons
1806:Stuart Kauffman
1706:Jason Jixuan Hu
1691:Igor Aleksander
1671:Gregory Bateson
1666:Gordon S. Brown
1651:Frederic Vester
1631:Erich von Holst
1591:Allenna Leonard
1581:Alexey Lyapunov
1562:
1508:Decision theory
1436:
1430:
1400:
1395:
1378:Rudolf Kompfner
1306:Ernst Guillemin
1270:Harald T. Friis
1234:
1229:
1193:, June 23, 2015
1165:
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904:
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807:
803:
796:
782:"Jay Forrester"
778:
767:
755:
754:
745:
744:
737:
735:
726:
719:
714:Wayback Machine
705:
701:
696:
679:
575:
551:
543:global modeling
533:Donella Meadows
476:
442:John F. Collins
431:dynamic systems
427:system dynamics
423:
421:System dynamics
403:
352:
347:
335:Gordon S. Brown
312:
294:dynamic systems
290:system dynamics
247:computer memory
232:Gordon S. Brown
228:servomechanisms
172:
167:
158:
145:
131:
97:
81:
75:
71:
62:
56:
50:
48:
31:
24:
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11:
5:
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2039:Living systems
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2024:Control theory
2020:
2014:
2008:
2007:
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1989:
1984:
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1811:Stuart Umpleby
1808:
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1771:Norbert Wiener
1768:
1766:Niklas Luhmann
1763:
1758:
1753:
1748:
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1741:Manfred Clynes
1738:
1733:
1728:
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1716:Jennifer Wilby
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1623:
1621:Claude Bernard
1618:
1616:Margaret Boden
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1611:Genevieve Bell
1608:
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1596:Anthony Wilden
1593:
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1568:Cyberneticians
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1390:John R. Pierce
1387:
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1354:Edward Ginzton
1351:
1345:
1339:
1336:Claude Shannon
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1315:
1309:
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1163:External links
1161:
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1042:Urban Dynamics
1031:
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905:Katie Hafner,
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604:World Dynamics
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597:Urban Dynamics
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547:
517:World Dynamics
513:World Dynamics
505:Aurelio Peccei
503:Forrester met
492:Dennis Meadows
486:model used by
480:World Dynamics
475:
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468:Urban Dynamics
446:Urban Dynamics
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2159:Ruzena Bajcsy
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1982:Doubling time
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1726:Kevin Warwick
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1130:
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1004:9780262524872
1000:
997:. MIT Press.
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972:(Spring 1997)
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69:
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55:July 14, 1918
47:
43:
39:
34:
27:
22:
2502:
2490:
2478:
2423:Applications
2379:Katia Sycara
2279:James J. Kay
2269:Mike Jackson
2253:
2204:Murray Bowen
2102:Pharmacology
2097:Neuroscience
1846:Walter Pitts
1751:Marian Mazur
1710:
1626:Cliff Joslyn
1468:Biosemiotics
1371:
1366:John Bardeen
1360:Dennis Gabor
1190:
1152:
1149:Nordhaus WD.
1144:
1133:. Retrieved
1129:the original
1115:. Retrieved
1111:the original
1100:
1089:. Retrieved
1085:the original
1075:
1063:
1051:
1041:
1034:
1026:
1022:
1013:
993:
986:
974:. Retrieved
969:
959:
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910:
888:
880:
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865:
853:. Retrieved
849:
839:
814:
810:
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785:
736:. Retrieved
730:
702:
688:Roger Sisson
669:
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629:
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573:Publications
552:
536:
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509:Club of Rome
502:
495:
479:
477:
474:Club of Rome
467:
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454:
445:
439:Boston Mayor
434:
424:
404:
391:oscilloscope
364:
339:Eta Kappa Nu
320:
313:
301:
298:Club of Rome
275:
271:oscilloscope
255:vacuum tubes
224:World War II
221:
200:
199:
184:Institutions
177:
72:(2016-11-16)
2553:2016 deaths
2548:1918 births
2369:Peter Senge
2364:John Seddon
2354:Qian Xuesen
2289:George Klir
2092:Engineering
2029:Cybernetics
2011:Theoretical
1961:Recommender
1951:Multi-agent
1946:Information
1781:Qian Xuesen
1661:Gordon Pask
1558:Synergetics
1523:Homeostasis
1463:Biorobotics
1434:cybernetics
976:24 November
2542:Categories
2384:Eric Trist
2239:Fred Emery
2136:Scientists
2112:Psychology
2107:Philosophy
1936:Ecological
1921:Biological
1135:2015-01-05
1091:2006-05-03
1055:Ugo Bardi
850:forbes.com
694:References
525:population
515:followed.
51:1918-07-14
2049:Systemics
1513:Emergence
1441:Subfields
1239:1951–1975
1117:March 30,
889:thocp.net
758:ignored (
748:cite book
383:animation
263:animation
86:Education
2480:Category
2082:Dynamics
2072:Analysis
1975:Concepts
1941:Economic
1040:(1969)
855:July 30,
831:25146240
738:July 30,
710:Archived
677:See also
397:(SAGE).
333:pioneer
2504:Commons
2087:Ecology
2077:Biology
1956:Nervous
1926:Complex
1176:at the
1025:, Vol.
529:ecology
521:economy
488:Donella
450:SimCity
222:During
166:Fellow
2518:Portal
2492:Portal
2117:Theory
2013:fields
1966:Social
1906:System
1392:(1975)
1386:(1974)
1380:(1973)
1374:(1972)
1368:(1971)
1362:(1970)
1356:(1969)
1350:(1968)
1344:(1967)
1338:(1966)
1332:(1964)
1326:(1963)
1320:(1963)
1314:(1962)
1308:(1961)
1302:(1960)
1296:(1959)
1290:(1958)
1284:(1957)
1278:(1956)
1272:(1955)
1266:(1954)
1260:(1953)
1254:(1952)
1248:(1951)
1001:
947:
829:
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641:online
609:1975.
602:1971.
595:1969.
588:1968.
581:1961.
549:Awards
484:World3
345:Career
190:(1956)
168:(1995)
159:(1989)
146:(1972)
136:Awards
80:, U.S.
61:, U.S.
1909:types
1105:CHM.
887:. on
827:S2CID
559:IEEEs
2456:List
1119:2015
999:ISBN
978:2015
945:ISBN
857:2023
790:ISBN
760:help
740:2023
563:IEEE
535:and
527:and
490:and
257:and
211:and
67:Died
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1916:Art
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