140:; because of the lack of incumbency advantage, these are often amongst the most hotly contested races in any election. Also, an open contest is created when the term of office is limited, as in the case of terms of the U.S. president being restricted to two four-year terms, and the incumbent is prohibited from recontesting. Although the expected advantage of incumbency has gone from about two percentage points in the 1950s, to ten percentage points in the 1980s and 1990s, and then back to about two percentage points in the 2010s and 2020s, the probability that an incumbent will lose his or her seat has remained approximately the same over the entire period.
216:, situations of this kind occur when the incumbent has proven themself not worthy of office during their tenure and the challengers demonstrate this to the voters. An anti-incumbency factor can also be responsible for bringing down incumbents who have been in office for many successive terms despite performance indicators, simply because the voters are convinced by the challengers of a need for change. It is also argued that the holders of extensively powerful offices are subject to immense pressure which leaves them politically impotent and unable to command enough public confidence for re-election; such is the case, for example, with the
258:
198:(not known as such in the United Kingdom) in which first term representatives see an increase in votes in their first election. This phenomenon is said to bring an advantage of up to 10% for first term representatives, which increases the incumbency advantage. However, the extent of the surge is a biased estimate of the electoral advantage of incumbency.
143:
When newcomers look to fill an open office, voters tend to compare and contrast the candidates' qualifications, positions on political issues, and personal characteristics in a relatively straightforward way. Elections featuring an incumbent, on the other hand, are, as Guy
Molyneux puts it,
475:
153:
argues that the incumbency advantage stems from the fact that voters evaluate the incumbent's ideology individually whereas they assume that any challenger shares his party's ideology. This means that the incumbency advantage gets more significant as
180:, an incumbent supplier is usually the supplier who currently supplies the needs of a customer and therefore has an advantageous position in relation to maintaining this role or agreeing a new contract in comparison with competing businesses.
144:"fundamentally a referendum on the incumbent." Voters will first grapple with the record of the incumbent. Only if they decide to "fire" the incumbent do they begin to evaluate whether each of the challengers is an acceptable alternative.
516:
110:. Except when the timing of elections is determined by a constitution or by legislation, the incumbent in some countries may have the right to determine the date of an election.
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98:, most appropriately defined: "To occupy obstructively or inconveniently; to block fill up with what hinders freedom of motion or action; to burden, load."
594:
286:
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47:, the incumbent is the person holding or acting in the position that is up for election, regardless of whether they are seeking re-election.
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However, there exist scenarios in which the incumbency factor itself leads to the downfall of the incumbent. Popularly known as the
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in 1989—that any voter who claims to be undecided towards the end of the election will probably end up voting for a challenger.
431:"If a Statistical Model Predicts That Common Events Should Occur Only Once in 10,000 Elections, Maybe it's the Wrong Model"
149:
533:
de
Benedictis-Kessner, Justin (2017-12-07). "Off-Cycle and Out of Office: Election Timing and the Incumbency Advantage".
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of a loss of income are less likely to vote for an incumbent candidate than those who have not experienced such a shock.
54:: the previous holder may have died, retired, resigned; they may not seek re-election, be barred from re-election due to
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or position may have been created, at which point the office or position is regarded as vacant or open. In the
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Incumbency effects in a comparative perspective: Evidence from
Brazilian mayoral elections
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Political analysts in the United States and United
Kingdom have noted the existence of a
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26:"Re-election" redirects here. For the system used in the English Football League, see
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found that incumbents have "a far larger advantage" in on-cycle elections than in
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due to their previous work in the office. Incumbents also have easier access to
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125:) that can be indirectly used to boost the incumbent's re-election campaign.
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86:, literally meaning "to lean or lay upon" with the present participle stem
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In general, an incumbent has a political advantage over challengers at
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136:) in which an incumbent is not seeking re-election is often called an
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For most political offices, the incumbent often has more
238:("Get out the outgoing !"), which was the slogan of the
66:, an election without an incumbent on the ballot is an
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In France, the phenomenon is known by the catchphrase
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Nick
Panagakis, a pollster, coined what he dubbed the
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429:
Ebanks, Danny; Katz, Jonathan N.; King, Gary (2023).
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128:
In the United States, an election (especially for a
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The word "incumbent" is derived from the Latin verb
583:, updated 27 January 2021, Retrieved 20 March 2021.
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476:"Ideological Signaling and Incumbency Advantage"
121:, as well as government resources (such as the
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364:"Estimating Incumbency Advantage without Bias"
595:"France's Presidency Is Too Powerful to Work"
287:List of presidents who did not win reelection
272:List of current heads of state and government
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50:There may or may not be an incumbent on the
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618:"Political Responses to Economic Shocks"
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94:while encumber is derived from the root
176:In relation to business operations and
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635:10.1146/annurev-polisci-050517-110713
371:American Journal of Political Science
316:
220:. Voters who experience the negative
657:Nick Panagakis (February 27, 1989).
483:British Journal of Political Science
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150:British Journal of Political Science
16:Current holder of a political office
362:Gelman, Andrew; King, Gary (1990).
19:For the ecclesiastical office, see
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622:Annual Review of Political Science
418:from the original on Jan 21, 2024.
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474:Peskowitz, Zachary (2017-05-01).
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244:1956 French legislative election
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158:increases. A 2017 study in the
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435:Gary King - Harvard University
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28:Re-election (Football League)
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39:is the current holder of an
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130:single-member constituency
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21:Incumbent (ecclesiastical)
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698:De Magalhaes, L. (2015).
685:Oxford English Dictionary
495:10.1017/S0007123416000557
90:, "leaning a variant of
535:The Journal of Politics
277:Lists of office-holders
688:. 2nd ed. 1989. Print.
214:anti-incumbency factor
156:political polarization
724:Political terminology
459:The American Prospect
218:Presidency of France
147:A 2017 study in the
102:Incumbency advantage
282:Outgoing politician
236:Sortez les sortants
166:off-cycle elections
161:Journal of Politics
43:or position. In an
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123:franking privilege
60:electoral division
461:, 1 October 2004.
304:Virtual incumbent
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601:December 3,
541:: 119–132.
178:competition
134:legislature
58:, or a new
56:term limits
575:Chen, J.,
440:2023-02-14
310:References
88:incumbent-
644:1094-2939
577:Incumbent
563:222440248
555:0022-3816
512:157292602
503:0007-1234
391:0092-5853
240:Poujadist
138:open seat
108:elections
92:encumber,
84:incumbere
78:Etymology
68:open seat
37:incumbent
718:Category
413:Archived
250:See also
45:election
678:Sources
408:3752645
399:2111475
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96:cumber
52:ballot
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395:JSTOR
367:(PDF)
132:in a
667:2016
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35:The
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