752:. For example, social workers might be interested in knowing how child abuse relates to academic performance. Although it would be unethical to perform an experiment in which children are randomly assigned to receive or not receive abuse, researchers can look at existing groups using a non-experimental correlational design. If in fact a negative correlation exists between abuse and academic performance, researchers could potentially use this knowledge of a statistical correlation to make predictions about children outside the study who experience abuse even though the study failed to provide causal evidence that abuse decreases academic performance. The combination of limited available methodologies with the dismissing correlation fallacy has on occasion been used to counter a scientific finding. For example, the
3066:
190:
735:
Much of scientific evidence is based upon a correlation of variables that are observed to occur together. Scientists are careful to point out that correlation does not necessarily mean causation. The assumption that A causes B simply because A correlates with B is not accepted as a legitimate form of
658:
levels and therefore decreases BMI. Because results from prospective studies on people who increase their bicycle use show a smaller effect on BMI than cross-sectional studies, there may be some reverse causality as well. For example, people with a lower BMI may be more likely to want to cycle in the
578:
However, as encountered in many psychological studies, another variable, a "self-consciousness score", is discovered that has a sharper correlation (+.73) with shyness. This suggests a possible "third variable" problem, however, when three such closely related measures are found, it further suggests
637:
Further research has called this conclusion into question. Instead, it may be that other underlying factors, like genes, diet and exercise, affect both HDL levels and the likelihood of having a heart attack; it is possible that medicines may affect the directly measurable factor, HDL levels, without
540:
sleeping with the light on caused the development of myopia. It did find a strong link between parental myopia and the development of child myopia, also noting that myopic parents were more likely to leave a light on in their children's bedroom. In this case, the cause of both conditions is parental
481:
variable, with the slight difference that confounding variables need not be hidden and may thus be corrected for in an analysis. Note that the
Knowledge link to lurking variable redirects to confounding. A difficulty often also arises where the third factor, though fundamentally different from A and
299:
Causality is actually the other way around, since some diseases, such as cancer, cause low cholesterol due to a myriad of factors, such as weight loss, and they also cause an increase in mortality. This can also be seen in alcoholics. As alcoholics become diagnosed with cirrhosis of the liver, many
771:
in fields such as medicine, psychology, and sociology. Correlations must first be confirmed as real, and every possible causative relationship must then be systematically explored. In the end, correlation alone cannot be used as evidence for a cause-and-effect relationship between a treatment and
555:
This example fails to recognize the importance of time of year and temperature to ice cream sales. Ice cream is sold during the hot summer months at a much greater rate than during colder times, and it is during these hot summer months that people are more likely to engage in activities involving
284:
In this example, the correlation (simultaneity) between windmill activity and wind velocity does not imply that wind is caused by windmills. It is rather the other way around, as suggested by the fact that wind does not need windmills to exist, while windmills need wind to rotate. Wind can be
300:
quit drinking. However, they also experience an increased risk of mortality. In these instances, it is the diseases that cause an increased risk of mortality, but the increased mortality is attributed to the beneficial effects that follow the diagnosis, making healthy changes look unhealthy.
772:
benefit, a risk factor and a disease, or a social or economic factor and various outcomes. It is one of the most abused types of evidence because it is easy and even tempting to come to premature conclusions based upon the preliminary appearance of a correlation.
409:
In other cases, two phenomena can each be a partial cause of the other; consider poverty and lack of education, or procrastination and poor self-esteem. One making an argument based on these two phenomena must however be careful to avoid the fallacy of
496:
The above example commits the correlation-implies-causation fallacy, as it prematurely concludes that sleeping with one's shoes on causes headache. A more plausible explanation is that both are caused by a third factor, in this case going to bed
739:
However, sometimes people commit the opposite fallacy of dismissing correlation entirely. That would dismiss a large swath of important scientific evidence. Since it may be difficult or ethically impossible to run controlled
393:
were beneficial to health since there would rarely be any lice on sick people. The reasoning was that the people got sick because the lice left. The real reason however is that lice are extremely sensitive to
406:
had not yet been invented and so that increase in temperature was rarely noticed. Noticeable symptoms came later, which gave the impression that the lice had left before the person became sick.
673:
The two variables are not related at all, but correlate by chance. The more things are examined, the more likely it is that two unrelated variables will appear to be related. For example:
361:
where controlled experiments often cannot be used to discern the direction of causation, this fallacy can fuel long-standing scientific arguments. One such example can be found in
893:
1281:
Zadnik, Karla; Jones, Lisa A.; Irvin, Brett C.; Kleinstein, Robert N.; Manny, Ruth E.; Shin, Julie A.; Mutti, Donald O. (2000). "Vision: Myopia and ambient night-time lighting".
285:
observed in places where there are no windmills or non-rotating windmills—and there are good reasons to believe that wind existed before the invention of windmills.
650:, predator numbers affect prey numbers, but prey numbers, i.e. food supply, also affect predator numbers. Another well-known example is that cyclists have a lower
111:, also known as Hill's criteria for causation, are a group of nine principles that can be useful in establishing epidemiologic evidence of a causal relationship.
17:
64:, in which two events occurring together are taken to have established a cause-and-effect relationship. This fallacy is also known by the Latin phrase
685:, despite the fact that the outcomes of football games had nothing to do with the outcome of the popular election. This streak was finally broken in
715:
Russian leaders: A bald (or obviously balding) state leader of Russia has succeeded a non-bald ("hairy") one, and vice versa, for nearly 200 years.
583:", above), being a cluster of correlated values each influencing one another to some extent. Therefore, the simple conclusion above may be false.
377:
models: it could either be that having innate ability enables one to complete an education, or that completing an education builds one's ability.
186:
causes. In examining correlation, "cause" is most often used to mean "one contributing cause" (but not necessarily the only contributing cause).
280:
Therefore, wind is caused by the rotation of windmills. (Or, simply put: windmills, as their name indicates, are machines used to produce wind.)
3102:
2183:
477:, which is simply a hidden third variable that affects both of the variables observed to be correlated. That third variable is also known as a
482:
B, is so closely related to A and/or B as to be confused with them or very difficult to scientifically disentangle from them (see
Example 4).
2188:
560:. The increased drowning deaths are simply caused by more exposure to water-based activities, not ice cream. The stated conclusion is false.
1070:
1177:
230:
1954:
1882:
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726:: the huge number of combinations of letters makes appearances of any word in sufficiently lengthy text statistically insignificant.
829:
690:
686:
1533:
1265:
2034:
2002:
1441:
1193:
Quinn, Graham E.; Shin, Chai H.; Maguire, Maureen G.; Stone, Richard A. (May 1999). "Myopia and ambient lighting at night".
1552:
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2223:
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898:
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193:
Dinosaur illiteracy and extinction may be correlated, but that would not mean the variables had a causal relationship.
3146:
2377:
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1021:
1145:
523:
323:
This could easily be the other way round; that is, violent children like watching more TV than less violent ones.
1806:
1762:
1471:"Transport mode choice and body mass index: Cross-sectional and longitudinal evidence from a European-wide study"
411:
96:
3198:
3088:
2985:
2193:
744:
studies to address certain questions, correlational evidence from several different angles may be useful for
567:
A hypothetical study shows a relationship between test anxiety scores and shyness scores, with a statistical
3021:
2997:
2586:
811:
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2342:
1700:
1643:
787:
182:" (or "causation") has multiple meanings in English. In philosophical terminology, "cause" can refer to
3133:
2608:
520:
225:, sequence in time (that is, causes must occur before their proposed effect), a plausible physical or
3183:
3178:
3016:
2573:
2469:
757:
462:
460:. It asserts that X causes Y when in reality, both X and Y are caused by Z. It is a variation on the
229:
mechanism for an observed effect to follow from a possible cause, and eliminating the possibility of
183:
72:
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for." That is the meaning intended by statisticians when they say causation is not certain. Indeed,
3193:
3011:
2851:
2319:
2155:
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1601:
860:
781:
623:
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Therefore, it may be simply concluded that shyness, in some part, causally influences test anxiety.
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104:
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might be either way around: perhaps the drugs cause the disorders, or perhaps people use drugs to
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2846:
2362:
2058:
1924:
1852:
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In other cases it may simply be unclear which is the cause and which is the effect. For example:
1172:
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usage leads to usage of harder drugs, but hard drug usage may lead to marijuana usage (see also
2953:
2943:
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2867:
2643:
2517:
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2367:
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2116:
2098:
1802:
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1247:
887:
869: – Observation that amount heart diseases French people have is much less than is expected
843:
532:, the study received much coverage at the time in the popular press. However, a later study at
370:
221:
pertaining to establishing cause and effect. Typically it involves establishing four elements:
108:
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88:
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76:("after this, therefore because of this"), in which an event following another is seen as a
3111:
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2874:
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2745:
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2106:
1928:
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31:
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has historically relied on a dismissal of correlational evidence to reject a link between
8:
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than people who do not cycle. This is often explained by assuming that cycling increases
362:
344:
87:
As with any logical fallacy, identifying that the reasoning behind an argument is flawed
77:
50:
1932:
1860:
1398:
1349:
1294:
1206:
633:
Therefore, taking medication to raise HDL decreases the chance of having a heart attack.
270:
where cause and effect are reversed. The cause is said to be the effect and vice versa.
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1998:
1946:
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1048:
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805:
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100:
1515:
840: – Purported set of secret messages encoded within the Hebrew text of the Torah
3152:
3038:
2879:
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2720:
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1936:
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528:
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Sleeping with one's shoes on is strongly correlated with waking up with a headache.
474:
449:
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263:
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2759:
2735:
2555:
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1992:
1489:
1431:
1269:
1181:
907:
705:
651:
340:
210:
204:
70:('with this, therefore because of this'). This differs from the fallacy known as
1022:"A Unifying Framework for Causal Analysis in Set-Theoretic Multimethod Research"
683:
predicted the outcome of every presidential election from 1936 to 2000 inclusive
2696:
2681:
2603:
2522:
2448:
2088:
2026:
995:
916: – Apparent, but false, correlation between causally-independent variables
881: – Apparent, but false, correlation between causally-independent variables
866:
712:
697:
591:
557:
358:
241:
57:
between them. The idea that "correlation implies causation" is an example of a
2016:
808: – Statistical analyses that were not specified before the data were seen
3172:
3157:
2821:
2711:
2443:
2406:
2350:
2218:
2213:
1899:
1827:
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1708:
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761:
682:
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The faster that windmills are observed to rotate, the more wind is observed.
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2252:
2012:
1950:
1878:
1507:
1498:
1416:
1367:
1310:
1222:
1130:
878:
741:
548:
As ice cream sales increase, the rate of drowning deaths increases sharply.
508:
Young children who sleep with the light on are much more likely to develop
166:
follows." In that sense, it is always correct to say "Correlation does not
2043:
1651:
1577:"Evidence in Medicine: Correlation and Causation – Science-Based Medicine"
3026:
2803:
2740:
1597:
854:
722:, Hebrew words predicting historical events supposedly hidden within the
627:
501:, which thereby gives rise to a correlation. So the conclusion is false.
498:
478:
403:
386:
222:
61:
54:
1716:
1659:
580:
3080:
2936:
2930:
2857:
2769:
1603:
The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many
Predictions Fail – But Some Don't
981:
837:
719:
314:
218:
92:
81:
35:
641:
246:
84:, the errant merging of two events, ideas, databases, etc., into one.
3043:
2827:
2811:
2494:
1941:
1869:
1433:
The
Psychology of Personality: Viewpoints, Research, and Applications
1407:
1382:
1358:
1333:
1302:
919:
799:
647:
457:
348:
179:
46:
2973:
1553:"If correlation doesn't imply causation, then what does? | DDI"
2921:
662:
189:
1214:
802: – Tendency to perceive connections between unrelated things
2075:
1687:
1630:
1381:
Stone, Richard A.; Maguire, Maureen G.; Quinn, Graham E. (2000).
598:
95:
methods have been proposed that use correlation as the basis for
894:
Normally distributed and uncorrelated does not imply independent
2018:
The
Cognitive Style of PowerPoint: Pitching Out Corrupts Within
1920:
1848:
1696:
1639:
537:
519:
This is a scientific example that resulted from a study at the
509:
426:
Third factor C (the common-causal variable) causes both A and B
1991:
Beebee, Helen; Hitchcock, Christopher; Menzies, Peter (2009).
1456:
Ornish, Dean. "Cholesterol: The good, the bad, and the truth"
1105:"Reverse Causality in Cardiovascular Epidemiological Research"
723:
399:
390:
317:
are the most violent. Clearly, TV makes children more violent
133:
730:
612:
Richer populations tend to eat more food and produce more CO
295:
Therefore, low cholesterol increases your risk of mortality.
292:
Low cholesterol is associated with an increase in mortality.
242:
Examples of illogically inferring causation from correlation
1571:
1569:
708:
with the size of crude steel production in
Western Germany.
233:. Such analysis usually involves one or more artificial or
1280:
1263:
Night lights don't lead to nearsightedness, study suggests
1243:
1102:
1566:
630:
is negatively correlated with incidence of heart attack.
492:
Therefore, sleeping with one's shoes on causes headache.
1383:"Vision: reply: Myopia and ambient night-time lighting"
953:"Correlations Genuine and Spurious in Pearson and Yule"
903:
Pages displaying short descriptions of redirect targets
883:
Pages displaying short descriptions of redirect targets
693:
using an alternative formulation of the original rule).
1990:
385:
A historical example of this is that
Europeans in the
136:, the technical use of the word "implies" means "is a
1192:
784: – Type of fallacious argument (logical fallacy)
398:. A small increase of body temperature, such as in a
515:
Therefore, sleeping with the light on causes myopia.
402:, makes the lice look for another host. The medical
1331:
832: – Problem of circular reasoning in statistics
642:
Bidirectional causation: A causes B, and B causes A
247:
B causes A (reverse causation or reverse causality)
45:" refers to the inability to legitimately deduce a
1685:(August 3, 1957), "Dangers Of Cigarette-Smoking",
1332:Gwiazda, J.; Ong, E.; Held, R.; Thorn, F. (2000).
814: – Statistical interpretation with many tests
579:that each may have bidirectional tendencies (see "
541:myopia, and the above-stated conclusion is false.
53:solely on the basis of an observed association or
1534:"Evidence in Medicine: Correlation and Causation"
1380:
1019:
551:Therefore, ice cream consumption causes drowning.
3170:
1628:(July 6, 1957), "Dangers Of Cigarette-Smoking",
1374:
1334:"Vision: Myopia and ambient night-time lighting"
1186:
851: – Concurrence of events with no connection
663:The relationship between A and B is coincidental
124:In casual use, the word "implies" loosely means
1274:
922: – Thinking in terms of destiny or purpose
2184:Affirmative conclusion from a negative premise
1325:
1020:Rohlfing, Ingo; Schneider, Carsten Q. (2018).
857: – Variable or factor in causal inference
796: – Evidence relying on personal testimony
418:cause of lack of education, but it is not the
3096:
2189:Negative conclusion from affirmative premises
2059:
1071:"Causation and Explanation in Social Science"
114:
1423:
1167:
1165:
646:Causality is not necessarily one-way; in a
2073:
1974:
1795:The Centennial Review of Arts & Science
1751:The Centennial Review of Arts & Science
1103:Naveed Sattar; David Preiss (13 Jun 2017).
932:
3103:
3089:
2066:
2052:
944:
526:. Published in the May 13, 1999, issue of
2767:
1940:
1868:
1724:
1667:
1527:
1525:
1497:
1406:
1357:
1162:
1120:
988:
971:
731:Use of correlation as scientific evidence
231:common and alternative ("special") causes
3110:
2920:
1429:
1075:The Oxford Handbook of Political Science
830:Testing hypotheses suggested by the data
748:despite failing to provide evidence for
677:The result of the last home game by the
571:value (strength of correlation) of +.59.
188:
91:that the resulting conclusion is false.
1550:
1531:
1436:(2nd ed.). John Wiley & Sons.
1248:Night-light may lead to nearsightedness
1083:10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199604456.013.0049
950:
820: – Statistical analysis phenomenon
764:(frequently on the industry's behalf).
14:
3171:
1898:
1826:
1782:
1738:
1681:
1624:
1596:
1579:. Sciencebasedmedicine.org. 2009-11-18
1522:
1143:
638:affecting the chance of heart attack.
590:Since the 1950s, both the atmospheric
184:necessary, sufficient, or contributing
3084:
2047:
2011:
1068:
938:
910: – Aspect of scientific research
3128:Correlation does not imply causation
1744:"Cigarettes, Cancer, and Statistics"
1468:
1462:
760:, as did biologist and statistician
173:
119:
49:relationship between two events or
43:correlation does not imply causation
18:Correlation does not prove causation
1146:"Of lice and men: An itchy history"
1029:Sociological Methods & Research
681:prior to the presidential election
24:
767:Correlation is a valuable type of
702:Social Democratic Party of Germany
473:All of those examples deal with a
197:
25:
3210:
3147:Lies, damned lies, and statistics
1174:Dr. LaBossiere's Philosophy Pages
1122:10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.117.028307
146:has the technical meaning of the
3065:
3064:
1994:The Oxford Handbook of Causation
1150:Scientific American Blog Network
790: – Phenomenon in statistics
203:This section is an excerpt from
1984:
1960:from the original on 2022-10-09
1892:
1888:from the original on 2022-10-09
1820:
1816:from the original on 2022-10-09
1807:Michigan State University Press
1776:
1772:from the original on 2022-10-09
1763:Michigan State University Press
1732:
1675:
1618:
1590:
1551:Nielsen, Michael (2012-01-23).
1544:
1450:
1252:
1237:
1069:Brady, Henry E. (7 July 2011).
826: – Misuse of data analysis
27:Refutation of a logical fallacy
2562:Correlation implies causation
1430:Carducci, Bernardo J. (2009).
1261:Research News, March 9, 2000.
1137:
1096:
1062:
1013:
601:levels have increased sharply.
412:circular cause and consequence
80:of the former event, and from
13:
1:
926:
758:tobacco smoke and lung cancer
313:Children that watch a lot of
99:for causality, including the
1832:"Lung Cancer and Cigarettes"
1532:Novella (18 November 2009).
1490:10.1016/j.envint.2018.06.023
812:Multiple comparisons problem
466:fallacy and a member of the
343:for preexisting conditions.
158:. That is, "if circumstance
7:
1997:. Oxford University Press.
1788:"The Nature of Probability"
1701:British Medical Association
1688:The British Medical Journal
1644:British Medical Association
1631:The British Medical Journal
788:Alignments of random points
775:
10:
3215:
3189:Covariance and correlation
3134:How to Lie with Statistics
2986:I'm entitled to my opinion
899:Pirates and global warming
666:
648:predator-prey relationship
521:University of Pennsylvania
429:
202:
115:Usage and meaning of terms
89:does not necessarily imply
29:
3118:
3060:
2969:
2908:
2842:
2758:
2667:
2642:
2617:
2541:
2493:
2429:
2404:
2376:
2341:
2291:
2245:
2236:
2174:
2140:
2096:
2087:
1540:. Science-Based Medicine.
1478:Environment International
890: – Statistical model
463:post hoc ergo propter hoc
73:post hoc ergo propter hoc
3012:Motte-and-bailey fallacy
2112:Affirming the consequent
1709:10.1136/bmj.2.5039.297-b
1041:10.1177/0049124115626170
861:Confusion of the inverse
782:Affirming the consequent
354:confusion of the inverse
105:convergent cross mapping
67:cum hoc ergo propter hoc
30:Not to be confused with
3032:Two wrongs make a right
2363:Denying the correlative
1925:Nature Publishing Group
1853:Nature Publishing Group
1459:(retrieved 3 June 2011)
901: – Satirical deity
875: – Design of tasks
863: – Logical fallacy
700:, which correlates the
442:ignoring a common cause
422:cause, and vice versa.
227:information-theoretical
3017:Psychologist's fallacy
2954:Argument to moderation
2944:Argument from anecdote
2894:Chronological snobbery
2518:Quoting out of context
2485:Overwhelming exception
2368:Suppressed correlative
2268:Quoting out of context
2143:quantificational logic
2117:Denying the antecedent
1803:East Lansing, Michigan
1759:East Lansing, Michigan
951:Aldrich, John (1995).
888:Mediation (statistics)
844:Bradford Hill criteria
581:bidirectional variable
331:A correlation between
194:
109:Bradford Hill criteria
101:Granger causality test
3141:Impression management
2980:The Four Great Errors
2960:Argumentum ad populum
2949:Argument from silence
2653:Argumentum ad baculum
2431:Faulty generalization
2122:Argument from fallacy
2023:Cheshire, Connecticut
1652:10.1136/bmj.2.5035.43
1259:Ohio State University
973:10.1214/ss/1177009870
914:Spurious relationship
873:Design of experiments
849:Coincidence#Causality
818:Look-elsewhere effect
679:Washington Commanders
669:Spurious relationship
604:Hence, atmospheric CO
534:Ohio State University
454:spurious relationship
432:Spurious relationship
337:psychiatric disorders
333:recreational drug use
192:
78:necessary consequence
3199:Misuse of statistics
3112:Misuse of statistics
2998:Invincible ignorance
2804:Reductio ad Stalinum
2790:Reductio ad Hitlerum
2746:Wisdom of repugnance
2513:Moving the goalposts
2378:Illicit transference
2303:Begging the question
2224:Undistributed middle
2132:Mathematical fallacy
2107:Affirming a disjunct
1904:"Cancer and Smoking"
1555:. Michaelnielsen.org
1538:Science and Medicine
470:group of fallacies.
148:material conditional
139:sufficient condition
32:Illusory correlation
2731:Parade of horribles
2707:In-group favoritism
2533:Syntactic ambiguity
2176:Syllogistic fallacy
2099:propositional logic
1933:1958Natur.182..596F
1902:(August 30, 1958),
1861:1958Natur.182..108F
1399:2000Natur.404..144S
1350:2000Natur.404..144G
1295:2000Natur.404..143Z
1207:1999Natur.399..113Q
1144:Willingham, Emily.
960:Statistical Science
769:scientific evidence
438:third-cause fallacy
363:education economics
345:Gateway drug theory
215:experimental design
2817:Poisoning the well
2634:Proof by assertion
2609:Texas sharpshooter
2543:Questionable cause
2480:Slothful induction
2439:Anecdotal evidence
2299:Circular reasoning
2194:Exclusive premises
2156:Illicit conversion
1968:Bundled references
1614:, pp. 254–255
1268:2006-09-01 at the
1180:2009-05-22 at the
1171:Labossiere, M.C.,
794:Anecdotal evidence
536:did not find that
468:questionable cause
446:questionable cause
357:). Indeed, in the
268:questionable cause
195:
59:questionable-cause
3166:
3165:
3123:Circular analysis
3078:
3077:
3056:
3055:
3052:
3051:
2992:Ignoratio elenchi
2904:
2903:
2754:
2753:
2716:Not invented here
2421:Converse accident
2343:Correlative-based
2320:Compound question
2263:False attribution
2258:False equivalence
2232:
2231:
2036:978-0-9613921-5-4
2004:978-0-19-162946-4
1830:(July 12, 1958),
1443:978-1-4051-3635-8
1289:(6774): 143–144.
1201:(6732): 113–114.
1115:(24): 2369–2372.
806:Post hoc analysis
656:physical activity
256:reverse causality
252:Reverse causation
16:(Redirected from
3206:
3184:Causal inference
3179:Causal fallacies
3153:Misleading graph
3105:
3098:
3091:
3082:
3081:
3068:
3067:
3039:Special pleading
2918:
2917:
2779:Appeal to motive
2765:
2764:
2741:Stirring symbols
2721:Island mentality
2659:Wishful thinking
2640:
2639:
2356:Perfect solution
2333:No true Scotsman
2328:Complex question
2313:Leading question
2292:Question-begging
2278:No true Scotsman
2243:
2242:
2166:Quantifier shift
2161:Proof by example
2094:
2093:
2068:
2061:
2054:
2045:
2044:
2040:
2021:(2nd ed.).
2013:Tufte, Edward R.
2008:
1978:
1962:
1961:
1959:
1944:
1942:10.1038/182596a0
1908:
1896:
1890:
1889:
1887:
1872:
1870:10.1038/182108a0
1836:
1824:
1818:
1817:
1815:
1792:
1780:
1774:
1773:
1771:
1748:
1736:
1730:
1729:
1728:
1679:
1673:
1672:
1671:
1622:
1616:
1615:
1606:(2nd ed.),
1594:
1588:
1587:
1585:
1584:
1573:
1564:
1563:
1561:
1560:
1548:
1542:
1541:
1529:
1520:
1519:
1501:
1484:(119): 109–116.
1475:
1469:Dons, E (2018).
1466:
1460:
1454:
1448:
1447:
1427:
1421:
1420:
1410:
1408:10.1038/35004665
1378:
1372:
1371:
1361:
1359:10.1038/35004663
1329:
1323:
1322:
1303:10.1038/35004661
1278:
1272:
1256:
1250:
1246:, May 13, 1999.
1241:
1235:
1234:
1190:
1184:
1169:
1160:
1159:
1157:
1156:
1141:
1135:
1134:
1124:
1100:
1094:
1093:
1091:
1089:
1066:
1060:
1059:
1057:
1055:
1026:
1017:
1011:
1010:
1008:
1007:
992:
986:
985:
975:
957:
948:
942:
936:
904:
884:
754:tobacco industry
704:'s share of the
475:lurking variable
456:is confused for
396:body temperature
264:informal fallacy
213:is the field of
97:hypothesis tests
47:cause-and-effect
21:
3214:
3213:
3209:
3208:
3207:
3205:
3204:
3203:
3194:English phrases
3169:
3168:
3167:
3162:
3114:
3109:
3079:
3074:
3048:
3022:Rationalization
2965:
2912:
2900:
2838:
2760:Genetic fallacy
2750:
2663:
2638:
2613:
2537:
2528:Sorites paradox
2508:False precision
2489:
2470:Double counting
2425:
2400:
2372:
2337:
2324:Loaded question
2308:Loaded language
2287:
2228:
2170:
2136:
2083:
2072:
2037:
2005:
1987:
1982:
1981:
1975:
1965:
1957:
1906:
1897:
1893:
1885:
1834:
1825:
1821:
1813:
1790:
1781:
1777:
1769:
1746:
1737:
1733:
1680:
1676:
1623:
1619:
1595:
1591:
1582:
1580:
1575:
1574:
1567:
1558:
1556:
1549:
1545:
1530:
1523:
1473:
1467:
1463:
1455:
1451:
1444:
1428:
1424:
1379:
1375:
1330:
1326:
1279:
1275:
1270:Wayback Machine
1257:
1253:
1242:
1238:
1191:
1187:
1182:Wayback Machine
1170:
1163:
1154:
1152:
1142:
1138:
1101:
1097:
1087:
1085:
1067:
1063:
1053:
1051:
1024:
1018:
1014:
1005:
1003:
994:
993:
989:
955:
949:
945:
937:
933:
929:
908:Reproducibility
902:
882:
778:
733:
671:
665:
652:Body Mass Index
644:
615:
608:causes obesity.
607:
595:
556:water, such as
450:logical fallacy
440:(also known as
434:
428:
359:social sciences
347:may argue that
260:wrong direction
249:
244:
239:
238:
211:Causal analysis
208:
205:Causal analysis
200:
198:Causal analysis
176:
156:p → q
122:
117:
62:logical fallacy
39:
28:
23:
22:
15:
12:
11:
5:
3212:
3202:
3201:
3196:
3191:
3186:
3181:
3164:
3163:
3161:
3160:
3155:
3150:
3143:
3138:
3130:
3125:
3119:
3116:
3115:
3108:
3107:
3100:
3093:
3085:
3076:
3075:
3073:
3072:
3061:
3058:
3057:
3054:
3053:
3050:
3049:
3047:
3046:
3041:
3036:
3035:
3034:
3024:
3019:
3014:
3009:
3000:
2995:
2988:
2983:
2976:
2970:
2967:
2966:
2964:
2963:
2956:
2951:
2946:
2941:
2940:
2939:
2926:
2924:
2915:
2906:
2905:
2902:
2901:
2899:
2898:
2897:
2896:
2882:
2877:
2872:
2871:
2870:
2861:
2854:
2852:Accomplishment
2843:
2840:
2839:
2837:
2836:
2831:
2824:
2819:
2814:
2809:
2808:
2807:
2800:
2799:
2798:
2781:
2775:
2773:
2762:
2756:
2755:
2752:
2751:
2749:
2748:
2743:
2738:
2733:
2728:
2723:
2718:
2709:
2704:
2699:
2694:
2689:
2684:
2679:
2673:
2671:
2665:
2664:
2662:
2661:
2656:
2648:
2646:
2637:
2636:
2627:
2621:
2619:
2615:
2614:
2612:
2611:
2606:
2604:Slippery slope
2601:
2596:
2591:
2590:
2589:
2579:
2578:
2577:
2570:
2560:
2559:
2558:
2547:
2545:
2539:
2538:
2536:
2535:
2530:
2525:
2523:Slippery slope
2520:
2515:
2510:
2505:
2499:
2497:
2491:
2490:
2488:
2487:
2482:
2477:
2472:
2467:
2458:
2457:
2456:
2451:
2449:Cherry picking
2441:
2435:
2433:
2427:
2426:
2424:
2423:
2418:
2412:
2410:
2402:
2401:
2399:
2398:
2393:
2388:
2382:
2380:
2374:
2373:
2371:
2370:
2365:
2360:
2359:
2358:
2347:
2345:
2339:
2338:
2336:
2335:
2330:
2317:
2316:
2315:
2305:
2295:
2293:
2289:
2288:
2286:
2285:
2280:
2275:
2270:
2265:
2260:
2255:
2249:
2247:
2240:
2234:
2233:
2230:
2229:
2227:
2226:
2221:
2216:
2211:
2206:
2201:
2196:
2191:
2186:
2180:
2178:
2172:
2171:
2169:
2168:
2163:
2158:
2153:
2147:
2145:
2138:
2137:
2135:
2134:
2129:
2124:
2119:
2114:
2109:
2103:
2101:
2091:
2085:
2084:
2071:
2070:
2063:
2056:
2048:
2042:
2041:
2035:
2027:Graphics Press
2009:
2003:
1986:
1983:
1980:
1979:
1972:
1971:
1970:
1969:
1964:
1963:
1900:Fisher, Ronald
1891:
1828:Fisher, Ronald
1819:
1784:Fisher, Ronald
1775:
1740:Fisher, Ronald
1731:
1683:Fisher, Ronald
1674:
1626:Fisher, Ronald
1617:
1589:
1565:
1543:
1521:
1461:
1449:
1442:
1422:
1373:
1324:
1273:
1251:
1236:
1185:
1161:
1136:
1095:
1061:
1012:
987:
966:(4): 364–376.
943:
930:
928:
925:
924:
923:
917:
911:
905:
896:
891:
885:
876:
870:
867:French paradox
864:
858:
852:
846:
841:
835:
834:
833:
827:
821:
815:
809:
797:
791:
785:
777:
774:
732:
729:
728:
727:
716:
709:
698:Mierscheid law
694:
667:Main article:
664:
661:
659:first place.
643:
640:
635:
634:
631:
621:
613:
610:
609:
605:
602:
593:
588:
576:
575:
572:
565:
553:
552:
549:
546:
524:Medical Center
517:
516:
513:
512:in later life.
506:
494:
493:
490:
487:
430:Main article:
427:
424:
389:believed that
365:, between the
321:
320:
297:
296:
293:
290:
282:
281:
278:
275:
248:
245:
243:
240:
209:
201:
199:
196:
175:
172:
162:is true, then
154:symbolized as
132:. However, in
128:, rather than
121:
118:
116:
113:
26:
9:
6:
4:
3:
2:
3211:
3200:
3197:
3195:
3192:
3190:
3187:
3185:
3182:
3180:
3177:
3176:
3174:
3159:
3158:Sampling bias
3156:
3154:
3151:
3148:
3144:
3142:
3139:
3136:
3135:
3131:
3129:
3126:
3124:
3121:
3120:
3117:
3113:
3106:
3101:
3099:
3094:
3092:
3087:
3086:
3083:
3071:
3063:
3062:
3059:
3045:
3042:
3040:
3037:
3033:
3030:
3029:
3028:
3025:
3023:
3020:
3018:
3015:
3013:
3010:
3008:
3004:
3001:
2999:
2996:
2994:
2993:
2989:
2987:
2984:
2982:
2981:
2977:
2975:
2972:
2971:
2968:
2962:
2961:
2957:
2955:
2952:
2950:
2947:
2945:
2942:
2938:
2935:
2934:
2933:
2932:
2928:
2927:
2925:
2923:
2919:
2916:
2914:
2907:
2895:
2892:
2891:
2890:
2886:
2883:
2881:
2878:
2876:
2873:
2869:
2865:
2862:
2860:
2859:
2855:
2853:
2850:
2849:
2848:
2845:
2844:
2841:
2835:
2832:
2830:
2829:
2825:
2823:
2820:
2818:
2815:
2813:
2810:
2806:
2805:
2801:
2797:
2794:
2793:
2792:
2791:
2787:
2786:
2785:
2782:
2780:
2777:
2776:
2774:
2772:
2771:
2766:
2763:
2761:
2757:
2747:
2744:
2742:
2739:
2737:
2734:
2732:
2729:
2727:
2724:
2722:
2719:
2717:
2713:
2712:Invented here
2710:
2708:
2705:
2703:
2700:
2698:
2695:
2693:
2690:
2688:
2685:
2683:
2680:
2678:
2675:
2674:
2672:
2670:
2666:
2660:
2657:
2655:
2654:
2650:
2649:
2647:
2645:
2641:
2635:
2631:
2628:
2626:
2623:
2622:
2620:
2616:
2610:
2607:
2605:
2602:
2600:
2597:
2595:
2592:
2588:
2585:
2584:
2583:
2580:
2576:
2575:
2571:
2569:
2568:
2564:
2563:
2561:
2557:
2554:
2553:
2552:
2549:
2548:
2546:
2544:
2540:
2534:
2531:
2529:
2526:
2524:
2521:
2519:
2516:
2514:
2511:
2509:
2506:
2504:
2501:
2500:
2498:
2496:
2492:
2486:
2483:
2481:
2478:
2476:
2475:False analogy
2473:
2471:
2468:
2466:
2462:
2459:
2455:
2452:
2450:
2447:
2446:
2445:
2444:Sampling bias
2442:
2440:
2437:
2436:
2434:
2432:
2428:
2422:
2419:
2417:
2414:
2413:
2411:
2409:
2408:
2407:Secundum quid
2403:
2397:
2394:
2392:
2389:
2387:
2384:
2383:
2381:
2379:
2375:
2369:
2366:
2364:
2361:
2357:
2354:
2353:
2352:
2351:False dilemma
2349:
2348:
2346:
2344:
2340:
2334:
2331:
2329:
2325:
2321:
2318:
2314:
2311:
2310:
2309:
2306:
2304:
2300:
2297:
2296:
2294:
2290:
2284:
2281:
2279:
2276:
2274:
2271:
2269:
2266:
2264:
2261:
2259:
2256:
2254:
2251:
2250:
2248:
2244:
2241:
2239:
2235:
2225:
2222:
2220:
2219:Illicit minor
2217:
2215:
2214:Illicit major
2212:
2210:
2207:
2205:
2202:
2200:
2197:
2195:
2192:
2190:
2187:
2185:
2182:
2181:
2179:
2177:
2173:
2167:
2164:
2162:
2159:
2157:
2154:
2152:
2149:
2148:
2146:
2144:
2139:
2133:
2130:
2128:
2125:
2123:
2120:
2118:
2115:
2113:
2110:
2108:
2105:
2104:
2102:
2100:
2095:
2092:
2090:
2086:
2081:
2077:
2069:
2064:
2062:
2057:
2055:
2050:
2049:
2046:
2038:
2032:
2028:
2024:
2020:
2019:
2014:
2010:
2006:
2000:
1996:
1995:
1989:
1988:
1977:
1973:
1967:
1966:
1956:
1952:
1948:
1943:
1938:
1934:
1930:
1926:
1922:
1918:
1914:
1913:
1905:
1901:
1895:
1884:
1880:
1876:
1871:
1866:
1862:
1858:
1854:
1850:
1846:
1842:
1841:
1833:
1829:
1823:
1812:
1808:
1804:
1800:
1796:
1789:
1785:
1779:
1768:
1764:
1760:
1756:
1752:
1745:
1741:
1735:
1727:
1722:
1718:
1714:
1710:
1706:
1702:
1698:
1694:
1690:
1689:
1684:
1678:
1670:
1665:
1661:
1657:
1653:
1649:
1645:
1641:
1637:
1633:
1632:
1627:
1621:
1613:
1612:Penguin Books
1609:
1605:
1604:
1599:
1593:
1578:
1572:
1570:
1554:
1547:
1539:
1535:
1528:
1526:
1517:
1513:
1509:
1505:
1500:
1499:10044/1/61061
1495:
1491:
1487:
1483:
1479:
1472:
1465:
1458:
1453:
1445:
1439:
1435:
1434:
1426:
1418:
1414:
1409:
1404:
1400:
1396:
1393:(6774): 144.
1392:
1388:
1384:
1377:
1369:
1365:
1360:
1355:
1351:
1347:
1344:(6774): 144.
1343:
1339:
1335:
1328:
1320:
1316:
1312:
1308:
1304:
1300:
1296:
1292:
1288:
1284:
1277:
1271:
1267:
1264:
1260:
1255:
1249:
1245:
1240:
1232:
1228:
1224:
1220:
1216:
1215:10.1038/20094
1212:
1208:
1204:
1200:
1196:
1189:
1183:
1179:
1176:
1175:
1168:
1166:
1151:
1147:
1140:
1132:
1128:
1123:
1118:
1114:
1110:
1106:
1099:
1084:
1080:
1076:
1072:
1065:
1050:
1046:
1042:
1038:
1034:
1030:
1023:
1016:
1001:
997:
991:
983:
979:
974:
969:
965:
961:
954:
947:
940:
935:
931:
921:
918:
915:
912:
909:
906:
900:
897:
895:
892:
889:
886:
880:
877:
874:
871:
868:
865:
862:
859:
856:
853:
850:
847:
845:
842:
839:
836:
831:
828:
825:
824:Data dredging
822:
819:
816:
813:
810:
807:
804:
803:
801:
798:
795:
792:
789:
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2644:Consequences
2625:Law/Legality
2599:Single cause
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2253:Equivocation
2246:Equivocation
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1985:Bibliography
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2465:Conjunction
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2283:Reification
2199:Existential
2151:Existential
1809:: 261–274,
1765:: 151–166,
1703:: 297–298,
1109:Circulation
1088:29 February
1054:29 February
941:, p. 5
855:Confounding
628:cholesterol
479:confounding
452:in which a
404:thermometer
387:Middle Ages
223:correlation
152:if p then q
144:p implies q
93:Statistical
55:correlation
3173:Categories
3003:Moralistic
2937:Sealioning
2931:Ad nauseam
2858:Ipse dixit
2770:Ad hominem
2594:Regression
2396:Ecological
2209:Four terms
2127:Masked man
1583:2017-10-08
1559:2017-10-08
1155:2019-02-26
1006:2019-12-03
939:Tufte 2006
927:References
838:Bible code
746:prediction
736:argument.
720:Bible code
713:bald–hairy
597:level and
219:statistics
178:The word "
82:conflation
36:Conflation
3044:Straw man
2922:Arguments
2911:fallacies
2885:Tradition
2875:Etymology
2847:Authority
2828:Tu quoque
2812:Bulverism
2582:Gambler's
2551:Animistic
2495:Ambiguity
2461:Base rate
2204:Necessity
2076:fallacies
1049:124804330
920:Teleology
800:Apophenia
750:causation
626:("good")
620:Example 6
587:Example 5
564:Example 4
545:Example 3
505:Example 2
486:Example 1
458:causation
381:Example 5
371:signaling
367:screening
349:marijuana
327:Example 4
304:Example 3
289:Example 2
274:Example 1
51:variables
3070:Category
2702:Ridicule
2687:Flattery
2677:Children
2574:Post hoc
2454:McNamara
2416:Accident
2391:Division
2238:Informal
2015:(2006).
1955:archived
1951:13577916
1919:(4635),
1883:archived
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1767:archived
1742:(1958),
1717:25383439
1695:(5039),
1660:25383068
1638:(5035),
1608:New York
1600:(2015),
1516:49607716
1508:29957352
1417:10724158
1368:10724158
1311:10724157
1266:Archived
1223:10335839
1178:Archived
1131:28606949
776:See also
558:swimming
130:requires
126:suggests
2889:Novelty
2864:Poverty
2726:Loyalty
2692:Novelty
2669:Emotion
2618:Appeals
2587:Inverse
2567:Cum hoc
2556:Furtive
2074:Common
1929:Bibcode
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1857:Bibcode
1855:: 108,
1726:1961712
1669:1961750
1395:Bibcode
1346:Bibcode
1319:4399332
1291:Bibcode
1231:4419645
1203:Bibcode
1000:Wolfram
982:2246135
599:obesity
538:infants
448:) is a
235:natural
174:"Cause"
120:"Imply"
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2974:Cliché
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2880:Nature
2868:Wealth
2503:Accent
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2033:
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1912:Nature
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2630:Stone
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1713:JSTOR
1656:JSTOR
1512:S2CID
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1315:S2CID
1227:S2CID
1045:S2CID
1025:(PDF)
978:JSTOR
956:(PDF)
724:Torah
499:drunk
400:fever
180:cause
168:imply
134:logic
2822:Tone
2697:Pity
2682:Fear
2080:list
2031:ISBN
1999:ISBN
1947:PMID
1875:PMID
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1090:2020
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