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Post hoc ergo propter hoc

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by event X." It is a fallacy in which an event is presumed to have been caused by a closely preceding event merely on the grounds of temporal succession. This type of reasoning is fallacious because mere temporal succession does not establish a causal connection. It is often shortened simply to
68:('with this, therefore because of this'), in which two events occur simultaneously or the chronological ordering is insignificant or unknown. Post hoc is a logical fallacy in which one event seems to be the cause of a later event because it occurred earlier. 170:
blamed a dip in his playing performance on having given a fan a specific playing shirt. His play recovered after receiving from a friend what he was told was the shirt in question, despite it actually being the same shirt he'd worn during his poor
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A tenant moves into an apartment and the building's furnace develops a fault. The manager blames the tenant's arrival for the malfunction. One event merely followed the other, in the absence of causality.
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on the order of events, rather than taking into account other factors potentially responsible for the result that might rule out the connection.
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is an easy fallacy to detect when it is blatant, but even the best of scientists and statesmen are occasionally misled by it.
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Mommsen, J. K. F. (2013). Wider Das Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc - Primary Source Edition. United States: BiblioLife.
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Thinking and Reasoning: An Introduction to the Psychology of Reason, Judgment and Decision Making
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Woods, J., Walton, D. (2019). Fallacies: Selected Papers 1972–1982. Germany: De Gruyter.
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is a particularly tempting error because correlation sometimes appears to suggest
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This article is about the informal fallacy. For the West Wing episode, see
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Attacking Faulty Reasoning: A Practical Guide to Fallacy-Free Arguments
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Woods, J. H., Walton, D. N. (1977). Post Hoc, Ergo Propter Hoc.
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Fallacy of assumption of causality based on sequence of events
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is undesirable, this pattern is often combined with the
197: – Type of fallacious argument (logical fallacy) 245: – Belief in the connection of unrelated events 43:which one commits when one reasons, "Since event Y 62:variety, it is subtly different from the fallacy 39:: 'after this, therefore because of this') is an 1781: 221: – Concurrence of events with no connection 654:Affirmative conclusion from a negative premise 1761:The Singular Universe and the Reality of Time 1566: 659:Negative conclusion from affirmative premises 529: 257: – Logical error, form of selection bias 543: 1573: 1559: 536: 522: 227: – Bias confirming existing attitudes 21:Post Hoc, Ergo Propter Hoc (The West Wing) 1237: 489: 464: 401: 336: 318: 78:. The fallacy lies in a conclusion based 1390: 383: 233: – Refutation of a logical fallacy 1782: 1580: 300: 1554: 517: 436:: Wadsworth Publishing. p. 131. 424: 231:Correlation does not imply causation 384:Summers, Jesse S. (24 March 2017). 13: 203: – Informal inductive fallacy 14: 1806: 496:. Psychology Press. p. 119. 365:LII / Legal Information Institute 1535: 1534: 479:from the original on 2010-08-26. 47:event X, event Y must have been 465:Macaskill, Sandy (2009-02-25). 271: 146:holds: believing that avoiding 1032:Correlation implies causation 483: 458: 418: 377: 353: 294: 209: – New religious movement 1: 403:10.1080/13869795.2017.1287292 287: 7: 307:Journal of Thoracic Disease 303:"Post hoc ergo propter hoc" 182: 157: 58:. A logical fallacy of the 10: 1811: 1456:I'm entitled to my opinion 390:Philosophical Explorations 266:Texas sharpshooter fallacy 239: – Psychological term 174:Reporting of coincidental 91: 18: 1743:Post hoc ergo propter hoc 1725: 1664: 1601:A priori and a posteriori 1588: 1530: 1439: 1378: 1312: 1228: 1137: 1112: 1087: 1011: 963: 899: 874: 846: 811: 761: 715: 706: 644: 610: 566: 557: 490:Manktelow, K. I. (2012). 301:Grouse, Lawrence (2016). 100:is expressed as follows: 86:Post hoc ergo propter hoc 32:Post hoc ergo propter hoc 1646:Multiple time dimensions 1482:Motte-and-bailey fallacy 582:Affirming the consequent 195:Affirming the consequent 65:cum hoc ergo propter hoc 1768:An Experiment with Time 1502:Two wrongs make a right 833:Denying the correlative 320:10.21037/jtd.2016.04.49 1707:Growing block universe 1487:Psychologist's fallacy 1424:Argument to moderation 1414:Argument from anecdote 1364:Chronological snobbery 988:Quoting out of context 955:Overwhelming exception 838:Suppressed correlative 738:Quoting out of context 613:quantificational logic 587:Denying the antecedent 237:Jumping to conclusions 176:vaccine adverse events 140:denying the antecedent 23:. For other uses, see 1795:Latin logical phrases 1754:The Unreality of Time 1606:A series and B series 1450:The Four Great Errors 1430:Argumentum ad populum 1419:Argument from silence 1123:Argumentum ad baculum 901:Faulty generalization 592:Argument from fallacy 166:Brazilian footballer 1468:Invincible ignorance 1274:Reductio ad Stalinum 1260:Reductio ad Hitlerum 1216:Wisdom of repugnance 983:Moving the goalposts 848:Illicit transference 773:Begging the question 694:Undistributed middle 602:Mathematical fallacy 577:Affirming a disjunct 1692:Four-dimensionalism 1201:Parade of horribles 1177:In-group favoritism 1003:Syntactic ambiguity 646:Syllogistic fallacy 569:propositional logic 201:Association fallacy 1582:Philosophy of time 1287:Poisoning the well 1104:Proof by assertion 1079:Texas sharpshooter 1013:Questionable cause 950:Slothful induction 909:Anecdotal evidence 769:Circular reasoning 664:Exclusive premises 626:Illicit conversion 261:Surrogate endpoint 60:questionable cause 1777: 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thinking 213:Causal inference 98:post hoc fallacy 96:The form of the 55:post hoc fallacy 41:informal fallacy 1810: 1809: 1805: 1804: 1803: 1801: 1800: 1799: 1780: 1779: 1778: 1773: 1721: 1660: 1584: 1579: 1549: 1544: 1518: 1492:Rationalization 1435: 1382: 1370: 1308: 1230:Genetic fallacy 1220: 1133: 1108: 1083: 1007: 998:Sorites paradox 978:False precision 959: 940:Double counting 895: 870: 842: 807: 794:Loaded question 778:Loaded language 757: 698: 640: 606: 553: 542: 512: 511: 504: 488: 484: 463: 459: 444: 426:Damer, T Edward 423: 419: 396:(sup1): 21–36. 382: 378: 369: 367: 359: 358: 354: 299: 295: 290: 274: 185: 160: 144:logical inverse 142:, assuming the 109:occurred, then 94: 28: 17: 12: 11: 5: 1808: 1798: 1797: 1792: 1775: 1774: 1772: 1771: 1764: 1757: 1750: 1745: 1740: 1735: 1729: 1727: 1723: 1722: 1720: 1719: 1714: 1709: 1704: 1699: 1694: 1689: 1684: 1679: 1674: 1668: 1666: 1662: 1661: 1659: 1658: 1653: 1651:Temporal parts 1648: 1643: 1641:Imaginary time 1638: 1633: 1628: 1623: 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957: 952: 947: 942: 937: 928: 927: 926: 921: 919:Cherry picking 911: 905: 903: 897: 896: 894: 893: 888: 882: 880: 872: 871: 869: 868: 863: 858: 852: 850: 844: 843: 841: 840: 835: 830: 829: 828: 817: 815: 809: 808: 806: 805: 800: 787: 786: 785: 775: 765: 763: 759: 758: 756: 755: 750: 745: 740: 735: 730: 725: 719: 717: 710: 704: 703: 700: 699: 697: 696: 691: 686: 681: 676: 671: 666: 661: 656: 650: 648: 642: 641: 639: 638: 633: 628: 623: 617: 615: 608: 607: 605: 604: 599: 594: 589: 584: 579: 573: 571: 561: 555: 554: 541: 540: 533: 526: 518: 510: 509: 502: 482: 457: 442: 417: 376: 352: 292: 291: 289: 286: 285: 284: 281: 278: 273: 270: 269: 268: 263: 258: 252: 246: 240: 234: 228: 222: 216: 210: 204: 198: 192: 184: 181: 180: 179: 172: 164: 159: 156: 136:formal fallacy 128: 127: 126: 125: 114: 93: 90: 15: 9: 6: 4: 3: 2: 1807: 1796: 1793: 1791: 1788: 1787: 1785: 1770: 1769: 1765: 1763: 1762: 1758: 1755: 1751: 1749: 1746: 1744: 1741: 1739: 1736: 1734: 1731: 1730: 1728: 1724: 1718: 1715: 1713: 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Index

Post Hoc, Ergo Propter Hoc (The West Wing)
Post hoc
Latin
informal fallacy
questionable cause
cum hoc ergo propter hoc
causality
formal fallacy
denying the antecedent
logical inverse
Pelé
vaccine adverse events
Apophenia
Affirming the consequent
Association fallacy
Cargo cult
Causal inference
Coincidence
Confirmation bias
Correlation does not imply causation
Jumping to conclusions
Magical thinking
Superstition
Survivorship bias
Surrogate endpoint
Texas sharpshooter fallacy
"Post hoc ergo propter hoc"
doi
10.21037/jtd.2016.04.49
ISSN

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