127:
20:
336:
269:
169:
365:. Instead, the aim is to find the dilemmas facing characters and so help to predict how they will change the table itself. Such prediction requires not only analysis of the model and its dilemmas, but also exploration of the reality outside the model; without this it is impossible to decide which ways of changing the model in order to eliminate dilemmas might be rationalized by the characters.
61:
but considers that instead of resolving the game, the players often redefine the game when interacting. Emotions triggered from the potential interaction play a large part in this redefinition. So whereas game theory looks on an interaction as a single decision matrix and resolves that, confrontation
99:
I am in debt to
Professor Nigel Howard, whose explanation of Confrontation Analysis and Game Theory at a seminar in 1998 excited my interest. Our subsequent discussions helped me to order my thoughts and the lessons I had learned into a coherent structure with the result that, for the first time, I
603:
P. Bennett, J. Bryant and N. Howard, 'Drama Theory and
Confrontation Analysis' — can be found (along with other recent PSM methods) in: J. V. Rosenhead and J. Mingers (eds) Rational Analysis for a Problematic World Revisited: problem structuring methods for complexity, uncertainty and conflict,
287:, and in particular its artillery the UN had an additional capability to engage Bosnian Serb weapons; they added the card "Use artillery against Bosnian Serbs". Because of this, the UN's threat of air strikes became more credible. The situation changed to that of the Second Card Table:
575:– A user discussion group. Deals with applications of Confrontation analysis to current politics, military campaigns, business problems, psychology, etc. Also contains a good introduction and glossary of the terms used in Confrontation Analysis.
247:
that occur to the parties following from the structure of the card tables. It states that motivated by the desire to eliminate these dilemmas, the parties involved will CHANGE THE CARD TABLE, to eliminate their problem.
420:
343:
Faced with this new situation, the
Bosnian Serbs modified their position to accept the UN proposal. The final table was an agreement as shown in the Final Card table (see thumbnail and picture).
272:
Second Card Table: The UN eliminated the
Bosnian "hostage" card and brought in an additional, credible "Artillery" card, changing the situation in their favour: The Bosnian Serbs now have two
265:
Firstly, it withdrew its forces from the positions where they were vulnerable to being taken hostage. This action eliminated the
Bosnian Serbs' option (card) of taking hostages.
255:
in that the
Bosnian Serbs are not going to do the three things they want them to (not attack the enclaves, withdraw the heavy weapons and not take hostages). It also has a
339:
Final Card Table: The final situation. The
Bosnian Serbs modified their position to eliminate their dilemmas. This involved accepting their initial goals as unobtainable
259:
in that the
Bosnian Serbs do not believe they will actually use the air strikes, as they think the UN will submit to their position, for fear of having hostages taken.
75:
28:
141:
Confrontation analysis looks on an interaction as a sequence of confrontations. During each confrontation the parties communicate until they have made their
62:
analysis looks on the interaction as a sequence of linked interactions, where the decision matrix changes under the influence of precisely defined emotional
346:
Confrontation analysis does not necessarily produce a win-win solution (although end states are more likely to remain stable if they do); however, the word
554:
50:
technique used to structure, understand and think through multi-party interactions such as negotiations. It is the underpinning mathematical basis of
611:
172:
Initial Card Table: The UN threatens to use air strikes, but is not believed by the
Bosnian Serbs: The UN has three dilemmas The Bosnians have none
584:
448:
419:"role playing... can also be used by investors in the form of "confrontation analysis' such as that organised by former military analyst
405:
239:
The UN said it would initiate air strikes. However the
Bosnian Serbs DID NOT BELIEVE them. (Hence the question mark on the Card Table).
578:
149:(also known as an options board) of yes/no decisions. For each decision each party communicates what they would like to happen (their
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423:
1367:
902:
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1005:
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Sometimes analysis of the ticks and crosses can be supported by values showing the payoff to each of the parties.
184:. This represents an interaction between the Bosnian Serbs and the United Nations forces over the safe areas. The
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Faced with these dilemmas, the UN modified the card table to eliminate its dilemmas. It took two actions:
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J. Bryant, The Six Dilemmas of Collaboration: inter-organisational relationships as drama, Wiley, 2003.
23:
Screenshot illustrating the use of confrontation analysis in a computer-aided role play depicting the
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was able to understand my experiences within a theoretical model which allowed me to use them further
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The Bosnian Serbs said they would NOT withdraw their heavy weapons, but the UN did not believe them.
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In the situation at the start the Bosnian Serbs have no dilemmas, but the UN has four. It has three
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If no further changes were made then what the sides were saying would happen was (see 1st column):
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If no further changes were made then what the sides were saying would happen was (see 1st column):
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should not necessarily imply that any negotiations should be carried out in an aggressive way.
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637:
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The UN said it would use air strikes. This time, however, the Bosnian Serbs believed them.
284:
106:
91:
82:. It has been turned to defence, political, legal, financial and commercial applications.
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509:
Proceedings of the 6th international Command and Control Research and Technology Symposium
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a brief "How to" manual on doing Confrontation Analysis without using an Options Table.
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The Bosnian Serbs said they would attack the enclaves, but the UN did not believe them.
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as structure to support role-playing for training, analysis and decision rehearsal.
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587:— A software application using an earlier version of Confrontation Analysis.
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The Bosnian Serbs said they would take hostages if the UN uses air strikes
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The UN said it would use artillery. The Bosnian Serbs believed this.
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Confrontation analysis then specifies a number of precisely defined
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The Bosnian Serbs said they would NOT withdraw their heavy weapons
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drew its inspiration from the theory of confrontation analysis.
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contains an illustrated explanation of Confrontation Analysis.
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clear to one another. These positions can be expressed as a
598:
Confrontation Analysis: How to win operations other than war
78:
in the early 1990s drawing from his work on game theory and
195:
Each side had a position as to what they wanted to happen:
511:, U.S. Naval Academy, Annapolis, Maryland, 19–20 June 2001
130:
An interaction as a sequence of confrontations where the
552:
understanding the tables used in confrontation analysis
618:
How to structure disputes using Confrontation Analysis
581:- A software application to do Confrontation Analysis
230:
The Bosnian Serbs said they would attack the enclaves
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NOT to withdraw their heavy weapons from the enclaves
361:
models, but are not built with the aim of finding a
192:
enclaves surrounded and were threatening to attack.
134:changes as the parties struggle to eliminate their
314:The Bosnian Serbs to withdraw their heavy weapons
219:The Bosnian Serbs to withdraw their heavy weapons
153:) and what will happen if they cannot agree (the
1707:
74:Confrontation analysis was devised by Professor
297:NOT to withdraw heavy weapons from the enclaves
165:changes as players attempt to eliminate these.
499:This example developed from that described in
85:Much of the theoretical background to General
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114:Confrontation analysis can also be used in a
16:Operational analysis derived from game theory
311:The Bosnian Serbs NOT to attack the enclaves
216:The Bosnian Serbs NOT to attack the enclaves
593:an iPhone app to do Confrontation Analysis.
290:The Bosnian Serbs wanted (see 4th column):
198:The Bosnian Serbs wanted (see 4th column):
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27:. The software was written by Professor
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222:The Bosnian Serbs NOT to take hostages.
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474:definition of Options Board/Card table
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180:(Initial Card Table), taken from the
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283:Secondly, with the addition of the
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701:First-player and second-player win
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14:
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427:Greek Dungeons and German Dragons
410:
300:For the UN NOT to use air strikes
294:To be able to attack the enclaves
208:For the UN NOT to use air strikes
202:To be able to attack the enclaves
808:Coalition-proof Nash equilibrium
525:definition of Persuasion Dilemma
307:The UN wanted (See 5th column):
212:The UN wanted (See 5th column):
544:
540:definition of Rejection Dilemma
505:Confrontations in War and Peace
303:For the UN NOT to use artillery
818:Evolutionarily stable strategy
624:Speed Confrontation Management
493:
438:
157:). These interactions produce
1:
746:Simultaneous action selection
371:
1678:List of games in game theory
858:Quantal response equilibrium
848:Perfect Bayesian equilibrium
783:Bayes correlated equilibrium
176:Consider the example on the
7:
1731:Problem structuring methods
1147:Optional prisoner's dilemma
878:Self-confirming equilibrium
600:', CCRP Publications, 1999.
10:
1747:
1612:Principal variation search
1328:Aumann's agreement theorem
991:Strategy-stealing argument
903:Trembling hand equilibrium
833:Markov perfect equilibrium
828:Mertens-stable equilibrium
503:, Tait A, Howard N (1999)
1648:Combinatorial game theory
1635:
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1307:Princess and monster game
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863:Quasi-perfect equilibrium
788:Bayesian Nash equilibrium
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446:Letting agency case study
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1663:Evolutionary game theory
1396:Antoine Augustin Cournot
1282:Guess 2/3 of the average
1079:Strictly determined game
873:Satisfaction equilibrium
691:Escalation of commitment
612:Paradoxes of Rationality
1668:Glossary of game theory
1267:Stackelberg competition
893:Strong Nash equilibrium
1693:Tragedy of the commons
1673:List of game theorists
1653:Confrontation analysis
1363:Sprague–Grundy theorem
883:Sequential equilibrium
803:Correlated equilibrium
489:definition of Position
340:
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105:General Rupert Smith,
40:Confrontation analysis
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1466:Jean-François Mertens
585:Confrontation Manager
394:definition of Dilemma
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182:1995 Bosnian Conflict
171:
129:
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22:
1595:Search optimizations
1471:Jennifer Tour Chayes
1358:Revelation principle
1353:Purification theorem
1292:Nash bargaining game
1257:Bertrand competition
1242:El Farol Bar problem
1207:Electronic mail game
1172:Lewis signaling game
716:Hierarchy of beliefs
285:Rapid Reaction Force
107:The Utility of Force
92:The Utility of Force
48:operational analysis
1726:Operations research
1643:Bounded rationality
1262:Cournot competition
1212:Rock paper scissors
1187:Battle of the sexes
1177:Volunteer's dilemma
1049:Perfect information
976:Dominant strategies
813:Epsilon-equilibrium
696:Extensive-form game
614:', MIT Press, 1971.
429:, James Macintosh,
406:The future of Libya
274:persuasion dilemmas
253:persuasion dilemmas
57:It is derived from
1622:Paranoid algorithm
1602:Alpha–beta pruning
1481:John Maynard Smith
1312:Rendezvous problem
1152:Traveler's dilemma
1142:Gift-exchange game
1137:Prisoner's dilemma
1054:Large Poisson game
1021:Bargaining problem
926:Backward induction
898:Subgame perfection
853:Proper equilibrium
557:2019-09-15 at the
451:2019-09-15 at the
435:, 9 November 2011.
357:are isomorphic to
341:
281:
278:rejection dilemmas
174:
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70:Derivation and use
37:
1701:
1700:
1607:Aspiration window
1576:Suzanne Scotchmer
1531:Oskar Morgenstern
1426:Donald B. Gillies
1368:Zermelo's theorem
1297:Induction puzzles
1252:Fair cake-cutting
1227:Public goods game
1157:Coordination game
1031:Intransitive game
961:Forward induction
843:Pareto efficiency
823:Gibbs equilibrium
793:Berge equilibrium
741:Simultaneous game
257:rejection dilemma
155:threatened future
116:decision workshop
80:metagame analysis
25:Siege of Sarajevo
1738:
1688:Topological game
1683:No-win situation
1581:Thomas Schelling
1561:Robert B. Wilson
1521:Merrill M. Flood
1491:John von Neumann
1401:Ariel Rubinstein
1386:Albert W. Tucker
1237:War of attrition
1197:Matching pennies
838:Nash equilibrium
761:Mechanism design
726:Normal-form game
681:Cooperative game
654:
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579:Dilemma Explorer
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44:dilemma analysis
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1617:max^n algorithm
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1586:William Vickrey
1546:Reinhard Selten
1501:Kenneth Binmore
1416:David K. Levine
1411:Daniel Kahneman
1378:
1372:
1348:Negamax theorem
1338:Minimax theorem
1316:
1277:Diner's dilemma
1132:All-pay auction
1098:
1084:Stochastic game
1036:Mean-field game
1007:
1000:
971:Markov strategy
907:
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736:Sequential game
721:Information set
706:Game complexity
676:Congestion game
664:
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573:Dilemmas Galore
569:
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559:Wayback Machine
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1182:Dollar auction
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1167:Centipede game
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1122:Infinite chess
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1089:Symmetric game
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1074:Signaling game
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1069:Screening game
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1059:Potential game
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1180:
1178:
1175:
1173:
1170:
1168:
1165:
1163:
1160:
1158:
1155:
1153:
1150:
1148:
1145:
1143:
1140:
1138:
1135:
1133:
1130:
1128:
1125:
1123:
1120:
1118:
1115:
1113:
1110:
1109:
1107:
1105:
1101:
1095:
1094:Zero-sum game
1092:
1090:
1087:
1085:
1082:
1080:
1077:
1075:
1072:
1070:
1067:
1065:
1064:Repeated game
1062:
1060:
1057:
1055:
1052:
1050:
1047:
1045:
1043:
1039:
1037:
1034:
1032:
1029:
1027:
1024:
1022:
1019:
1017:
1014:
1013:
1011:
1009:
1003:
997:
994:
992:
989:
987:
984:
982:
981:Pure strategy
979:
977:
974:
972:
969:
967:
964:
962:
959:
957:
954:
952:
949:
947:
946:De-escalation
944:
942:
939:
937:
934:
932:
929:
927:
924:
922:
919:
918:
916:
914:
910:
904:
901:
899:
896:
894:
891:
889:
888:Shapley value
886:
884:
881:
879:
876:
874:
871:
869:
866:
864:
861:
859:
856:
854:
851:
849:
846:
844:
841:
839:
836:
834:
831:
829:
826:
824:
821:
819:
816:
814:
811:
809:
806:
804:
801:
799:
796:
794:
791:
789:
786:
784:
781:
780:
778:
776:
772:
768:
762:
759:
757:
756:Succinct game
754:
752:
749:
747:
744:
742:
739:
737:
734:
732:
729:
727:
724:
722:
719:
717:
714:
712:
709:
707:
704:
702:
699:
697:
694:
692:
689:
687:
684:
682:
679:
677:
674:
673:
671:
667:
663:
655:
650:
648:
643:
641:
636:
635:
632:
625:
622:
619:
616:
613:
609:
606:
602:
599:
595:
592:
589:
586:
583:
580:
577:
574:
571:
570:
560:
556:
553:
547:
541:
535:
533:
526:
520:
518:
510:
506:
502:
496:
490:
484:
482:
475:
469:
467:
465:
463:
461:
454:
450:
447:
441:
434:
433:
428:
424:
422:
416:
414:
407:
401:
395:
389:
387:
385:
383:
381:
376:
369:
366:
364:
360:
356:
351:
349:
348:confrontation
344:
337:
330:
327:
324:
321:
320:
319:
313:
310:
309:
308:
302:
299:
296:
293:
292:
291:
288:
286:
279:
275:
270:
266:
263:
260:
258:
254:
249:
246:
238:
235:
232:
229:
228:
227:
221:
218:
215:
214:
213:
207:
204:
201:
200:
199:
196:
193:
191:
187:
186:Bosnian Serbs
183:
179:
170:
166:
164:
160:
156:
152:
148:
144:
137:
133:
128:
119:
117:
108:
101:
96:
94:
93:
88:
83:
81:
77:
67:
65:
60:
55:
53:
49:
45:
41:
34:
30:
26:
21:
1703:
1652:
1541:Peyton Young
1536:Paul Milgrom
1451:Hervé Moulin
1391:Amos Tversky
1333:Folk theorem
1044:-player game
1041:
966:Grim trigger
604:Wiley, 2001.
596:N. Howard, '
546:
508:
495:
440:
430:
426:
421:Mike Young's
400:
367:
362:
354:
352:
347:
345:
342:
317:
306:
289:
282:
277:
273:
264:
261:
256:
252:
250:
244:
242:
225:
211:
197:
194:
175:
162:
158:
154:
150:
146:
142:
140:
135:
131:
115:
113:
98:
90:
87:Rupert Smith
84:
76:Nigel Howard
73:
63:
56:
52:drama theory
43:
39:
38:
33:Rupert Smith
31:for General
29:Nigel Howard
1721:Game theory
1658:Coopetition
1461:Jean Tirole
1456:John Conway
1436:Eric Maskin
1232:Blotto game
1217:Pirate game
1026:Global game
996:Tit for tat
931:Bid shading
921:Appeasement
771:Equilibrium
751:Solved game
686:Determinacy
669:Definitions
662:game theory
610:N. Howard,
591:Confronteer
359:game theory
355:card tables
59:game theory
1710:Categories
1302:Trust game
1287:Kuhn poker
956:Escalation
951:Deterrence
941:Cheap talk
913:Strategies
731:Preference
660:Topics of
372:References
163:card table
147:card table
132:card table
1486:John Nash
1192:Stag hunt
936:Collusion
143:positions
1627:Lazy SMP
1321:Theorems
1272:Deadlock
1127:Checkers
1008:of games
775:concepts
555:Archived
449:Archived
363:solution
276:and two
245:dilemmas
161:and the
159:dilemmas
151:position
136:dilemmas
103:—
89:'s book
64:dilemmas
46:) is an
35:in 1996.
1379:figures
1162:Chicken
1016:Auction
1006:Classes
501:Smith R
190:Bosniak
109:(p.xvi)
122:Method
1117:Chess
1104:Games
425:" –
178:right
798:Core
550:See
538:See
523:See
487:See
472:See
444:See
404:See
392:See
353:The
188:had
1377:Key
54:.
1712::
1112:Go
531:^
516:^
507:.
480:^
459:^
412:^
379:^
66:.
1042:n
653:e
646:t
639:v
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