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Atlantic multidecadal oscillation

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obscured by the 60 year quasi-periodic cycle." With full consideration of meteorological science, the number of tropical storms that can mature into severe hurricanes is much greater during warm phases of the AMO than during cool phases, at least twice as many; the AMO is reflected in the frequency of severe Atlantic hurricanes. Based on the typical duration of negative and positive phases of the AMO, the current warm regime is expected to persist at least until 2015 and possibly as late as 2035. Enfield
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Oscillation" or "AMO", fail to isolate the true internal variability when it is a priori known. Such procedures yield an AMO signal with an inflated amplitude and biased phase, attributing some of the recent NH mean temperature rise to the AMO. The true AMO signal, instead, appears likely to have been in a cooling phase in recent decades, offsetting some of the anthropogenic warming."
209:. However, historical oceanic observations are not sufficient to associate the derived AMO index to present-day circulation anomalies. Models and observations indicate that changes in atmospheric circulation, which induce changes in clouds, atmospheric dust and surface heat flux, are largely responsible for the tropical portion of the AMO. 370:, a typical null hypothesis to test whether there are oscillations in a model. Referring to the 2021 study, Michael Mann, the originator of the term AMO, put it more succinctly in a blog post on the matter: "my colleagues and I have provided what we consider to be the most definitive evidence yet that the AMO doesn't actually exist." 102:
Evidence for a multidecadal climate oscillation centered in the North Atlantic began to emerge in 1980s work by Folland and colleagues, seen in Fig. 2.d.A. That oscillation was the sole focus of Schlesinger and Ramankutty in 1994, but the actual term Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) was coined
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Recent research suggests that the AMO is related to the past occurrence of major droughts in the US Midwest and the Southwest. When the AMO is in its warm phase, these droughts tend to be more frequent or prolonged. Two of the most severe droughts of the 20th century occurred during the positive AMO
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There are only about 130–150 years of data based on instrument data, which are too few samples for conventional statistical approaches. With the aid of multi-century proxy reconstruction, a longer period of 424 years was used by Enfield and Cid–Serrano as an illustration of an approach as described
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The AMO is correlated to air temperatures and rainfall over much of the Northern Hemisphere, in particular in the summer climate in North America and Europe. Through changes in atmospheric circulation, the AMO can also modulate spring snowfall over the Alps and glaciers' mass variability. Rainfall
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In 2014 Mann, Steinman and Miller showed that warming (and therefore any effects on hurricanes) were not caused by the AMO, writing: "certain procedures used in past studies to estimate internal variability, and in particular, an internal multidecadal oscillation termed the "Atlantic Multidecadal
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data (1851–2007), and noted a positive linear trend for minor hurricanes (category 1 and 2), but removed when the authors adjusted their model for undercounted storms, and stated "If there is an increase in hurricane activity connected to a greenhouse gas induced global warming, it is currently
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The linearly detrended index suggests that the North Atlantic SST anomaly at the end of the twentieth century is equally divided between the externally forced component and internally generated variability, and that the current peak is similar to middle twentieth century; by contrast the others
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Based on the about 150-year instrumental record a quasi-periodicity of about 70 years, with a few distinct warmer phases between ca. 1930–1965 and after 1995, and cool between 1900–1930 and 1965–1995 has been identified. In models, AMO-like variability is associated with small changes in the
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A 2017 study predicts a continued cooling shift beginning 2014, and the authors note, "..unlike the last cold period in the Atlantic, the spatial pattern of sea surface temperature anomalies in the Atlantic is not uniformly cool, but instead has anomalously cold temperatures in the
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and other external forcings, and therefore that there is no compelling evidence for the AMO being an oscillation or cycle. There was also a lack of oscillatory behaviour in models on time scales longer than El Niño Southern Oscillation; the AMV is indistinguishable from
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from the analysis. However, if the global warming signal is significantly non-linear in time (i.e. not just a smooth linear increase), variations in the forced signal will leak into the AMO definition. Consequently, correlations with the AMO index may mask effects of
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causes, especially in tropical Atlantic areas important for hurricane development. The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation is also connected with shifts in hurricane activity, rainfall patterns and intensity, and changes in fish populations.
353:. The tripole pattern of anomalies has increased the subpolar to subtropical meridional gradient in SSTs, which are not represented by the AMO index value, but which may lead to increased atmospheric baroclinicity and storminess." 1148:
Ghosh, Rohit; Müller, Wolfgang A.; Baehr, Johanna; Bader, Jürgen (2016-07-28). "Impact of observed North Atlantic multidecadal variations to European summer climate: a linear baroclinic response to surface heating".
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and Shea, assuming that the effect of global forcing over the North Atlantic is similar to the global ocean, subtracted the global (60°N-60°S) mean SST from the North Atlantic SST to derive a revised AMO index.
333:, are far from being able to do this. Enfield and colleagues have calculated the probability that a change in the AMO will occur within a given future time frame, assuming that historical variability persists. 322:
in their paper called "The Probabilistic Projection of Climate Risk". Their histogram of zero crossing intervals from a set of five re-sampled and smoothed version of Gray et al. (2004) index together with the
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However, Mann and Emanuel had found in 2006 that "anthropogenic factors are responsible for long-term trends in tropic Atlantic warmth and tropical cyclone activity" and "There is no apparent role of the AMO."
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Zampieri, M.; Toreti, A.; Schindler, A.; Scoccimarro, E.; Gualdi, S. (April 2017). "Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation influence on weather regimes over Europe and the Mediterranean in spring and summer".
182:, warm temperatures in the subtropics and cool anomalies over the tropics, increased the spatial distribution of meridional gradient in sea surface temperatures, which is not captured by the AMO Index. 164:
derived an AMO index as the SST averaged over the extra-tropical North Atlantic (to remove the influence of ENSO that is greater at tropical latitude) minus the regression on global mean temperature.
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gamma distribution fit to the histogram, showed that the largest frequency of regime interval was around 10–20 year. The cumulative probability for all intervals 20 years or less was about 70%.
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The AMO signal is usually defined from the patterns of SST variability in the North Atlantic once any linear trend has been removed. This detrending is intended to remove the influence of
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however argue that the forced SST pattern is not globally uniform; they separated the forced and internally generated variability using signal to noise maximizing
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Enfield, David B.; Cid-Serrano, Luis (2010). "Secular and multidecadal warmings in the North Atlantic and their relationships with major hurricane activity".
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Teegavarapu, R. S. V.; Goly, A.; Obeysekera, J. (2013). "Influences of Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation on Regional Precipitation Extremes".
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There is no demonstrated predictability for when the AMO will switch, in any deterministic sense. Computer models, such as those that predict
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Atlantic multidecadal oscillation spatial pattern obtained as the regression of monthly HadISST sea surface temperature anomalies (1870–2013).
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studies have confirmed this pattern—increased rainfall in AMO warmphase, decreased in cold phase—for the Sahel over the past 3,000 years.
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patterns are affected in North Eastern Brazilian and African Sahel. It is also associated with changes in the frequency of North American
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Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation index computed as the linearly detrended North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies 1856–2022.
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Zhang, R.; Delworth, T. L. (2006). "Impact of Atlantic multidecadal oscillations on India/Sahel rainfall and Atlantic hurricanes".
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methodology suggest that a large portion of the North Atlantic anomaly at the end of the twentieth century is externally forced.
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In a 2021 study by Michael Mann and others, it was shown that the periodicity of the AMO in the last millennium was driven by
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While there is some support for this mode in models and in historical observations, controversy exists with regard to its
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of this kind may prove to be useful for long-term planning in climate sensitive applications, such as water management.
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The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is important for how external forcings are linked with North Atlantic SSTs.
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of the 1930s and the 1950s drought. Florida and the Pacific Northwest tend to be the opposite—warm AMO, more rainfall.
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Hetzinger, Steffen (2008). "Caribbean coral tracks Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and past hurricane activity".
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Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Index according to the methodology proposed by van Oldenborgh et al. 1880–2018.
1893:"The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and its relationship to rainfall and river flows in the continental U.S." 1093:"Evidence for external forcing of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation since termination of the Little Ice Age" 812:"Frequency- or amplitude-dependent effects of the Atlantic meridional overturning on the tropical Pacific Ocean" 134: 3787: 3071: 2818: 2125:
Knight, J. R. (2005). "A signature of persistent natural thermohaline circulation cycles in observed climate".
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Mads Faurschou Knudsen; Bo Holm Jacobsen; Marit-Solveig Seidenkrantz & Jesper Olsen (25 February 2014).
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Folland, C. K.; Parker, D .E.; Kates, F. E. (1984). "Worldwide marine temperature fluctuations 1856–1981".
2336:"Individual and coupled influences of AMO and ENSO on regional precipitation characteristics and extremes" 401:
Gerard D. McCarthy; Ivan D. Haigh; Joël J.M. Hirschi; Jeremy P. Grist & David A. Smeed (27 May 2015).
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Guan and Nigam removed the non stationary global trend and Pacific natural variability before applying an
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Goldenberg, S. B. (2001). "The recent increase in Atlantic hurricane activity: Causes and implications".
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Sutton, R. T.; Hodson, L. R. (2005). "Atlantic forcing of North American and European summer climate".
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by Michael Mann in a 2000 telephone interview with Richard Kerr, as recounted by Mann, p. 30 in
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Yuan, T.; L. Oreopoulos; M. Zalinka; H. Yu; J. R. Norris; M. Chin; S. Platnick; K. Meyer (2016).
138: 75: 1024:"Positive low cloud and dust feedbacks amplify tropical North Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation" 622:
Schlesinger, M. E. (1994). "An oscillation in the global climate system of period 65–70 years".
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Shanahan, T. M.; et al. (2009). "Atlantic Forcing of Persistent Drought in West Africa".
4031: 4026: 3926: 3572: 3449: 3257: 2707: 2630: 1719:"Absence of internal multidecadal and interdecadal oscillations in climate model simulations" 1654:
Mann, Michael E.; Steinman, Byron A.; Brouillette, Daniel J.; Miller, Sonya K. (2021-03-05).
3765: 3643: 3304: 2869: 2796: 2347: 2314: 2275: 2226: 2177: 2134: 2031: 2000: 1990:"A tree-ring based reconstruction of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation since 1567 A.D." 1952: 1903: 1892: 1863: 1828: 1815: 1730: 1667: 1573: 1524: 1487: 1420: 1377: 1311: 1259: 1220: 1158: 1104: 1037: 994: 951: 865: 824: 782: 728: 633: 588: 533: 479: 417: 79: 1179: 387: 8: 4106: 4096: 4005: 3782: 3557: 2781: 2776: 1656:"Multidecadal climate oscillations during the past millennium driven by volcanic forcing" 1297:"100-year mass changes in the Swiss Alps linked to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation" 938:"The signature of low-frequency oceanic forcing in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation" 403:"Ocean impact on decadal Atlantic climate variability revealed by sea-level observations" 71: 2351: 2318: 2279: 2230: 2181: 2138: 2035: 2004: 1956: 1907: 1867: 1832: 1734: 1671: 1577: 1528: 1491: 1424: 1381: 1315: 1263: 1224: 1162: 1108: 1041: 998: 955: 869: 828: 786: 732: 637: 592: 537: 483: 421: 4036: 3610: 3542: 3459: 3309: 3274: 3231: 3226: 3221: 2786: 2293: 2250: 2150: 2113: 2076: 1976: 1929: 1879: 1761: 1718: 1699: 1591: 1540: 1454: 1393: 1272: 1247: 1192: 1125: 1092: 1073: 1060: 1023: 883: 694: 649: 604: 554: 522:"Emerging negative Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation index in spite of warm subtropics" 521: 497: 470: 441: 195: 142: 2200: 2163: 90: 4166: 3844: 3507: 3252: 3018: 2801: 2764: 2551: 2505: 2242: 2205: 2105: 2088:
Kerr, R. A. (2005). "Atlantic climate pacemaker for millennia past, decades hence?".
2068: 1968: 1943: 1766: 1748: 1703: 1691: 1683: 1634: 1595: 1446: 1329: 1277: 1184: 1130: 1077: 1065: 981:"The necessity of cloud feedback for a basin-scale Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation" 686: 669: 559: 519: 433: 2297: 2254: 2154: 2117: 2080: 1980: 1933: 1544: 1397: 1296: 1232: 1196: 887: 809: 698: 501: 334: 38: 3887: 3454: 3437: 3378: 3269: 3033: 2747: 2620: 2556: 2355: 2322: 2283: 2234: 2195: 2185: 2142: 2097: 2060: 2039: 2008: 1960: 1921: 1883: 1871: 1836: 1756: 1738: 1675: 1581: 1532: 1495: 1458: 1438: 1385: 1319: 1267: 1228: 1174: 1166: 1120: 1112: 1055: 1045: 1002: 959: 873: 832: 790: 746: 678: 653: 641: 624: 608: 596: 579: 549: 541: 487: 445: 425: 256: 2326: 2064: 1345: 1343: 682: 4126: 3839: 3760: 3724: 3653: 3627: 3615: 3532: 3464: 3339: 3196: 2808: 2759: 2737: 667:
Kerr, Richard C. (2000). "A North Atlantic Climate Pacemaker for the Centuries".
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Frajka-Williams et al. 2017 pointed out that recent changes in cooling of the
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Kerr, R. A. (2000). "A North Atlantic climate pacemaker for the centuries".
1964: 1852:"Observed and simulated multidecadal variability in the Northern Hemisphere" 1679: 1442: 1354: 4151: 3750: 3547: 3191: 3181: 2828: 2712: 2625: 2246: 2209: 2109: 2072: 1972: 1770: 1695: 1450: 1248:"Atlantic influence on spring snowfall over the Alps in the past 150 years" 1134: 1069: 878: 853: 690: 563: 492: 465: 437: 206: 1875: 1295:
Huss, Matthias; Hock, Regine; Bauder, Andreas; Funk, Martin (2010-05-01).
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van Oldenborgh, G. J.; L. A. te Raa; H. A. Dijkstra; S. Y. Philip (2009).
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suggest that a warm phase of the AMO strengthens the summer rainfall over
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Climate cycle that affects the surface temperature of the North Atlantic
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The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars: Dispatches from the Front Lines
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Mann, Michael E.; Steinman, Byron A.; Miller, Sonya K. (2020-01-03).
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Zampieri, Matteo; Scoccimarro, Enrico; Gualdi, Silvio (2013-01-01).
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Mingfang, Ting; Yochanan Kushnir; Richard Seager; Cuihua Li (2009).
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A 2008 study correlated the Atlantic Multidecadal Mode (AMM), with
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Eleanor Frajka-Williams; Claudie Beaulieu; Aurelie Duchez (2017).
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Several methods have been proposed to remove the global trend and
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Cooperative Mechanisms under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement
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Enfield, D. B.; Mestas-Nunez, A. M.; Trimble, P. J. (2001).
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O'Reilly, C. H.; L. M. Huber; T Woollings; L. Zanna (2016).
316: 2264:"Climate impacts of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation" 1890: 715:
Mann, Michael; Byron A. Steinman; Sonya K. Miller (2014).
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North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity according to the
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Illustrative model of greenhouse effect on climate change
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McCabe, G. J.; Palecki, M. A.; Betancourt, J. L. (2004).
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United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
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Knight, J. R.; Folland, C. K.; Scaife, A. A. (2006).
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and is reflected in the frequency of severe Atlantic
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Probabilistic projection of future AMO regime shifts
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Brown, P. T.; M. S. Lozier; R. Zhang; W. Li (2016).
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(2000). 759: 171:analysis to the residual North Atlantic SST. 2216: 1849: 1471: 215: 2728:Atlantic meridional overturning circulation 1557: 1508: 710: 708: 621: 459: 457: 455: 192:Atlantic meridional overturning circulation 25:Atlantic meridional overturning circulation 3997: 3983: 3957: 3945: 3402: 2413: 2399: 1940: 3697: 3503:Adaptation strategies on the German coast 2636:United Nations Climate Change conferences 2359: 2287: 2199: 2189: 2021: 2012: 1915: 1840: 1760: 1742: 1585: 1499: 1432: 1323: 1271: 1178: 1124: 1059: 1049: 1006: 963: 877: 845: 836: 794: 769:Trenberth, Kevin; Dennis J. Shea (2005). 750: 740: 553: 491: 97: 4004: 3207:Co-benefits of climate change mitigation 2376:Frequently asked questions about the AMO 1410: 705: 452: 390:. Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. 317:Periodicity and prediction of AMO shifts 272: 45: 37: 29: 3563:National Adaptation Programme of Action 3352:Land use, land-use change, and forestry 4180: 3212:Economics of climate change mitigation 3175:Gold Standard (carbon offset standard) 2688: 2516:Scientific consensus on climate change 2124: 1639:: CS1 maint: archived copy as title ( 3978: 3871:Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 3696: 3401: 3137: 2687: 2599: 2480: 2432: 2394: 1850:Delworth, T. L.; Mann, M. E. (2000). 82:on the timescale of several decades. 3893:Representative Concentration Pathway 2834:Tipping points in the climate system 2510:Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere 2087: 2050: 1987: 1783: 1558:Mann, M. E.; Emanuel, K. A. (2006). 1517:International Journal of Climatology 1472:Chylek, P. & Lesins, G. (2008). 666: 269:Tropical cyclones and climate change 4087:Equatorial Indian Ocean oscillation 3664:Nationally determined contributions 3374:Individual action on climate change 2579:World energy supply and consumption 135:El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) 13: 3803:Fixed anvil temperature hypothesis 2420: 1807: 1784:Mann, Michael (11 February 2021). 137:influence over the North Atlantic 14: 4209: 4077:Diurnal air temperature variation 4062:Cataclysmic pole shift hypothesis 4047:Atlantic multidecadal oscillation 3730:Satellite temperature measurement 3335:forestry for carbon sequestration 2616:History of climate change science 2369: 64:Atlantic Multidecadal Variability 56:Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation 3956: 3944: 3933: 3932: 3920: 3581:Climate Change Performance Index 2960:Destruction of cultural heritage 852:Guan, Bin; Sumant Nigam (2009). 3720:Instrumental temperature record 3671:Sustainable Development Goal 13 1777: 1710: 1647: 1602: 1551: 1479:Journal of Geophysical Research 1404: 1361: 1288: 1239: 1233:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.08.014 1203: 1141: 1084: 1015: 972: 929: 894: 263:Relation to Atlantic hurricanes 253:North Atlantic tropical cyclone 3788:Climate variability and change 3138: 2819:Retreat of glaciers since 1850 1252:Environmental Research Letters 1180:11858/00-001M-0000-002B-44E2-8 660: 615: 570: 394: 388:"Multidecadal Climate Changes" 380: 1: 3898:Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 3433:Climate emergency declaration 2327:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.05.003 2065:10.1126/science.288.5473.1984 683:10.1126/science.288.5473.1984 373: 185: 4188:Tropical cyclone meteorology 4082:El Niño–Southern Oscillation 3881:IPCC Sixth Assessment Report 3107:Middle East and North Africa 2433: 1304:Geophysical Research Letters 1273:10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034026 1029:Geophysical Research Letters 986:Geophysical Research Letters 943:Geophysical Research Letters 775:Geophysical Research Letters 721:Geophysical Research Letters 356: 349:and cool anomalies over the 128: 7: 4132:Pacific decadal oscillation 2955:Depopulation of settlements 2600: 2102:10.1126/science.309.5731.41 1213:Global and Planetary Change 345:, warm temperatures in the 324:maximum likelihood estimate 305:assume a peak around 2020. 233:between 1925 and 1965: The 10: 4214: 4147:Quasi-biennial oscillation 4117:North Atlantic oscillation 4022:Antarctic Circumpolar Wave 3715:Global surface temperature 3606:Popular culture depictions 3518:Ecosystem-based adaptation 3248:Carbon capture and storage 3170:Carbon offsets and credits 2481: 2386:AMO Data from 1856–present 1744:10.1038/s41467-019-13823-w 546:10.1038/s41598-017-11046-x 279:Accumulated Cyclone Energy 266: 189: 21:North Atlantic oscillation 18: 4122:North Pacific Oscillation 4102:Madden–Julian oscillation 4012: 3927:Climate change portal 3914: 3853: 3820:Extreme event attribution 3738: 3707: 3703: 3692: 3636: 3571: 3493: 3443:School Strike for Climate 3415: 3411: 3397: 3366: 3322:Climate-smart agriculture 3283: 3240: 3150: 3146: 3133: 3057: 2910: 2857: 2700: 2696: 2683: 2606: 2595: 2524: 2493: 2489: 2476: 2459:Climate change adaptation 2454:Climate change mitigation 2449:Effects of climate change 2439: 2428: 1171:10.1007/s00382-016-3283-4 335:Probabilistic projections 216:Climate impacts worldwide 4198:Regional climate effects 4067:Dansgaard–Oeschger event 4042:Atlantic Equatorial mode 3830:Global warming potential 3637:International agreements 3284:Preserving and enhancing 2718:Arctic methane emissions 2640:Years in climate change 2547:Greenhouse gas emissions 2444:Causes of climate change 2340:Water Resources Research 207:Thermohaline Circulation 19:Not to be confused with 4137:Pacific Meridional Mode 3861:Climate change scenario 3513:Disaster risk reduction 3165:Carbon emission trading 2975:U.S. insurance industry 2945:Civilizational collapse 2792:sea surface temperature 2239:10.1126/science.1109496 2191:10.1073/pnas.0306738101 1965:10.1126/science.1060040 1680:10.1126/science.abc5810 1443:10.1126/science.1166352 76:sea surface temperature 3854:Research and modelling 3538:Nature-based solutions 3358:Nature-based solutions 3300:Carbon dioxide removal 3217:Fossil fuel divestment 3202:Climate risk insurance 3112:Small island countries 2723:Arctic sea ice decline 911:. 2014. Archived from 879:10.1175/2009JCLI2921.1 493:10.1175/2008JCLI2561.1 293: 98:Definition and history 51: 43: 35: 4032:Arctic dipole anomaly 4027:Antarctic oscillation 3815:Earth's energy budget 3698:Background and theory 3586:Climate crisis (term) 3258:Fossil fuel phase-out 3152:Economics and finance 3117:by individual country 3059:By country and region 3034:Security and conflict 3029:Psychological impacts 2708:Abrupt climate change 2631:Charles David Keeling 2464:By country and region 1876:10.1007/s003820000075 1723:Nature Communications 838:10.5194/os-5-293-2009 276: 49: 41: 33: 4006:Climate oscillations 3644:Glasgow Climate Pact 3305:Carbon sequestration 2870:Mass mortality event 2361:10.1002/2013WR014540 2307:Journal of Hydrology 2289:10.1029/2006GL026242 2147:10.1029/2005GL024233 2014:10.1029/2004GL019932 1988:Gray, S. T. (2004). 1926:10.1029/2000GL012745 1842:10.1029/2000GL006109 1587:10.1029/2006EO240001 1501:10.1029/2008JD010036 1390:10.1029/2006GL026267 1325:10.1029/2010GL042616 1051:10.1002/2016GL067679 1008:10.1002/2016GL068303 965:10.1002/2016GL067925 796:10.1029/2006GL026894 752:10.1002/2014GL059233 80:North Atlantic Ocean 70:), is the theorized 4193:Atlantic hurricanes 4107:Milankovitch cycles 4097:Indian Ocean Dipole 3783:Climate sensitivity 3558:The Adaptation Fund 3014:Infectious diseases 2911:Social and economic 2352:2014WRR....50.4686G 2319:2013JHyd..495...74T 2280:2006GeoRL..3317706K 2231:2005Sci...309..115S 2182:2004PNAS..101.4136M 2139:2005GeoRL..3220708K 2059:(5473): 1984–1986. 2036:2008Geo....36...11H 2005:2004GeoRL..3112205G 1957:2001Sci...293..474G 1908:2001GeoRL..28.2077E 1868:2000ClDy...16..661D 1833:2000GeoRL..27.2137A 1821:Geophys. Res. Lett. 1735:2020NatCo..11...49M 1672:2021Sci...371.1014M 1666:(6533): 1014–1019. 1578:2006EOSTr..87..233M 1529:2010IJCli..30..174E 1492:2008JGRD..11322106C 1425:2009Sci...324..377S 1382:2006GeoRL..3317712Z 1316:2010GeoRL..3710501H 1264:2013ERL.....8c4026Z 1225:2017GPC...151...92Z 1163:2017ClDy...48.3547G 1109:2014NatCo...5.3323K 1042:2016GeoRL..43.1349Y 999:2016GeoRL..43.3955B 956:2016GeoRL..43.2810O 870:2009JCli...22.4228G 829:2009OcSci...5..293V 787:2006GeoRL..3312704T 733:2014GeoRL..41.3211M 677:(5473): 1984–1985. 638:1994Natur.367..723S 593:1984Natur.310..670F 538:2017NatSR...711224F 484:2009JCli...22.1469T 430:10.1038/nature14491 422:2015Natur.521..508M 4052:Earth's axial tilt 4037:Arctic oscillation 3354:(LULUCF and AFOLU) 3326:Forest management 3310:Direct air capture 3275:Sustainable energy 3232:Net zero emissions 3227:Low-carbon economy 3222:Green Climate Fund 3009:Indigenous peoples 2902:Plant biodiversity 2690:Effects and issues 2268:Geophys. Res. Lett 2127:Geophys. Res. Lett 1993:Geophys. Res. Lett 1896:Geophys. Res. Lett 1370:Geophys. Res. Lett 1117:10.1038/ncomms4323 526:Scientific Reports 471:Journal of Climate 363:volcanic eruptions 294: 288:2018-11-02 at the 196:Ocean heat content 52: 44: 36: 4175: 4174: 4167:True polar wander 4162:Solar variability 3972: 3971: 3910: 3909: 3906: 3905: 3845:Radiative forcing 3688: 3687: 3684: 3683: 3508:Adaptive capacity 3393: 3392: 3389: 3388: 3253:Energy transition 3129: 3128: 3125: 3124: 2839:Tropical cyclones 2765:Urban heat island 2679: 2678: 2591: 2590: 2587: 2586: 2552:Carbon accounting 2506:Greenhouse effect 2472: 2471: 2225:(5731): 115–118. 2176:(12): 4136–4141. 2044:10.1130/G24321A.1 1951:(5529): 474–479. 1902:(10): 2077–2080. 1827:(14): 2137–2140. 1419:(5925): 377–380. 864:(15): 4228–4240. 632:(6465): 723–726. 587:(5979): 670–673. 416:(7553): 508–510. 257:Paleoclimatologic 62:), also known as 4205: 3999: 3992: 3985: 3976: 3975: 3960: 3959: 3948: 3947: 3936: 3935: 3925: 3924: 3923: 3888:Paleoclimatology 3705: 3704: 3694: 3693: 3455:Ecological grief 3438:Climate movement 3413: 3412: 3399: 3398: 3379:Plant-based diet 3270:Renewable energy 3148: 3147: 3135: 3134: 2970:Economic impacts 2892:Invasive species 2748:Coastal flooding 2698: 2697: 2685: 2684: 2621:Svante Arrhenius 2597: 2596: 2567:from agriculture 2557:Carbon footprint 2542:Greenhouse gases 2491: 2490: 2478: 2477: 2430: 2429: 2415: 2408: 2401: 2392: 2391: 2365: 2363: 2346:(6): 4686–4709. 2330: 2301: 2291: 2258: 2213: 2203: 2193: 2158: 2121: 2084: 2047: 2018: 2016: 1984: 1937: 1919: 1887: 1856:Climate Dynamics 1846: 1844: 1801: 1800: 1798: 1796: 1781: 1775: 1774: 1764: 1746: 1714: 1708: 1707: 1651: 1645: 1644: 1638: 1630: 1628: 1627: 1621: 1615:. Archived from 1614: 1606: 1600: 1599: 1589: 1555: 1549: 1548: 1537:10.1002/joc.1881 1512: 1506: 1505: 1503: 1469: 1463: 1462: 1436: 1408: 1402: 1401: 1365: 1359: 1358: 1353:. Archived from 1347: 1338: 1337: 1327: 1301: 1292: 1286: 1285: 1275: 1243: 1237: 1236: 1207: 1201: 1200: 1182: 1151:Climate Dynamics 1145: 1139: 1138: 1128: 1088: 1082: 1081: 1063: 1053: 1036:(3): 1349–1356. 1019: 1013: 1012: 1010: 993:(8): 3955–3963. 976: 970: 969: 967: 950:(6): 2810–2818. 933: 927: 926: 924: 923: 917: 906: 898: 892: 891: 881: 849: 843: 842: 840: 807: 801: 800: 798: 766: 757: 756: 754: 744: 727:(9): 3211–3219. 712: 703: 702: 664: 658: 657: 646:10.1038/367723a0 619: 613: 612: 601:10.1038/310670a0 574: 568: 567: 557: 517: 506: 505: 495: 478:(6): 1469–1481. 461: 450: 449: 407: 398: 392: 391: 384: 4213: 4212: 4208: 4207: 4206: 4204: 4203: 4202: 4178: 4177: 4176: 4171: 4127:Orbital forcing 4014: 4008: 4003: 3973: 3968: 3921: 3919: 3902: 3849: 3840:Orbital forcing 3734: 3699: 3680: 3654:Paris Agreement 3632: 3628:Warming stripes 3567: 3533:Managed retreat 3528:Loss and damage 3489: 3423:Business action 3407: 3385: 3362: 3285: 3279: 3236: 3197:Climate finance 3142: 3121: 3053: 2906: 2882:Extinction risk 2858:Flora and fauna 2853: 2814:Permafrost thaw 2809:Ozone depletion 2738:Extreme weather 2692: 2675: 2602: 2583: 2520: 2485: 2468: 2435: 2424: 2419: 2372: 2096:(5731): 41–43. 1917:10.1.1.594.1411 1810: 1808:Further reading 1805: 1804: 1794: 1792: 1790:michaelmann.net 1782: 1778: 1715: 1711: 1652: 1648: 1632: 1631: 1625: 1623: 1619: 1612: 1610:"Archived copy" 1608: 1607: 1603: 1572:(24): 233–244. 1556: 1552: 1513: 1509: 1486:(D22): D22106. 1470: 1466: 1434:10.1.1.366.1394 1409: 1405: 1366: 1362: 1349: 1348: 1341: 1299: 1293: 1289: 1244: 1240: 1208: 1204: 1157:(11–12): 3547. 1146: 1142: 1089: 1085: 1020: 1016: 977: 973: 934: 930: 921: 919: 915: 904: 900: 899: 895: 850: 846: 808: 804: 767: 760: 713: 706: 665: 661: 620: 616: 575: 571: 518: 509: 462: 453: 405: 399: 395: 386: 385: 381: 376: 359: 319: 290:Wayback Machine 271: 265: 218: 198: 188: 160:Van Oldenborgh 131: 100: 28: 17: 12: 11: 5: 4211: 4201: 4200: 4195: 4190: 4173: 4172: 4170: 4169: 4164: 4159: 4154: 4149: 4144: 4139: 4134: 4129: 4124: 4119: 4114: 4109: 4104: 4099: 4094: 4092:Glacial cycles 4089: 4084: 4079: 4074: 4069: 4064: 4059: 4054: 4049: 4044: 4039: 4034: 4029: 4024: 4018: 4016: 4010: 4009: 4002: 4001: 3994: 3987: 3979: 3970: 3969: 3967: 3966: 3954: 3942: 3930: 3915: 3912: 3911: 3908: 3907: 3904: 3903: 3901: 3900: 3895: 3890: 3885: 3884: 3883: 3873: 3868: 3863: 3857: 3855: 3851: 3850: 3848: 3847: 3842: 3837: 3832: 3827: 3822: 3817: 3812: 3807: 3806: 3805: 3795: 3793:Cloud feedback 3790: 3785: 3780: 3775: 3774: 3773: 3768: 3763: 3758: 3748: 3742: 3740: 3736: 3735: 3733: 3732: 3727: 3722: 3717: 3711: 3709: 3701: 3700: 3690: 3689: 3686: 3685: 3682: 3681: 3679: 3678: 3673: 3668: 3667: 3666: 3661: 3651: 3649:Kyoto Protocol 3646: 3640: 3638: 3634: 3633: 3631: 3630: 3625: 3624: 3623: 3618: 3613: 3603: 3601:Media coverage 3598: 3593: 3591:Climate spiral 3588: 3583: 3577: 3575: 3569: 3568: 3566: 3565: 3560: 3555: 3550: 3545: 3540: 3535: 3530: 3525: 3520: 3515: 3510: 3505: 3499: 3497: 3491: 3490: 3488: 3487: 3482: 3480:Public opinion 3477: 3472: 3467: 3462: 3457: 3452: 3447: 3446: 3445: 3435: 3430: 3428:Climate action 3425: 3419: 3417: 3409: 3408: 3395: 3394: 3391: 3390: 3387: 3386: 3384: 3383: 3382: 3381: 3370: 3368: 3364: 3363: 3361: 3360: 3355: 3349: 3348: 3347: 3342: 3340:REDD and REDD+ 3337: 3332: 3324: 3319: 3317:Carbon farming 3314: 3313: 3312: 3307: 3297: 3291: 3289: 3281: 3280: 3278: 3277: 3272: 3267: 3262: 3261: 3260: 3250: 3244: 3242: 3238: 3237: 3235: 3234: 3229: 3224: 3219: 3214: 3209: 3204: 3199: 3194: 3189: 3184: 3179: 3178: 3177: 3167: 3162: 3156: 3154: 3144: 3143: 3131: 3130: 3127: 3126: 3123: 3122: 3120: 3119: 3114: 3109: 3104: 3099: 3094: 3089: 3084: 3079: 3074: 3069: 3063: 3061: 3055: 3054: 3052: 3051: 3049:Water security 3046: 3044:Water scarcity 3041: 3039:Urban flooding 3036: 3031: 3026: 3021: 3016: 3011: 3006: 3001: 3000: 2999: 2989: 2984: 2979: 2978: 2977: 2967: 2962: 2957: 2952: 2947: 2942: 2937: 2932: 2931: 2930: 2925: 2914: 2912: 2908: 2907: 2905: 2904: 2899: 2894: 2889: 2887:Forest dieback 2884: 2879: 2874: 2873: 2872: 2861: 2859: 2855: 2854: 2852: 2851: 2846: 2841: 2836: 2831: 2826: 2824:Sea level rise 2821: 2816: 2811: 2806: 2805: 2804: 2799: 2797:stratification 2794: 2789: 2784: 2779: 2769: 2768: 2767: 2762: 2752: 2751: 2750: 2740: 2735: 2730: 2725: 2720: 2715: 2710: 2704: 2702: 2694: 2693: 2681: 2680: 2677: 2676: 2674: 2673: 2672: 2671: 2666: 2661: 2656: 2651: 2646: 2638: 2633: 2628: 2623: 2618: 2613: 2607: 2604: 2603: 2593: 2592: 2589: 2588: 2585: 2584: 2582: 2581: 2576: 2575: 2574: 2569: 2564: 2562:Carbon leakage 2559: 2554: 2544: 2539: 2534: 2528: 2526: 2522: 2521: 2519: 2518: 2513: 2503: 2501:Climate system 2497: 2495: 2487: 2486: 2474: 2473: 2470: 2469: 2467: 2466: 2461: 2456: 2451: 2446: 2440: 2437: 2436: 2426: 2425: 2422:Climate change 2418: 2417: 2410: 2403: 2395: 2389: 2388: 2383: 2378: 2371: 2370:External links 2368: 2367: 2366: 2331: 2302: 2274:(17): L17706. 2259: 2214: 2159: 2133:(20): L20708. 2122: 2085: 2048: 2019: 1999:(12): L12205. 1985: 1938: 1888: 1862:(9): 661–676. 1847: 1809: 1806: 1803: 1802: 1776: 1709: 1646: 1601: 1550: 1523:(2): 174–184. 1507: 1464: 1403: 1376:(17): L17712. 1360: 1357:on 2005-11-26. 1339: 1310:(10): L10501. 1287: 1238: 1202: 1140: 1083: 1014: 971: 928: 893: 844: 823:(3): 293–301. 802: 781:(12): L12704. 758: 742:10.1.1.638.256 704: 659: 614: 569: 507: 451: 393: 378: 377: 375: 372: 358: 355: 318: 315: 264: 261: 241:Climate models 217: 214: 205:branch of the 203:North Atlantic 187: 184: 130: 127: 123:global warming 118:global warming 114:greenhouse gas 99: 96: 15: 9: 6: 4: 3: 2: 4210: 4199: 4196: 4194: 4191: 4189: 4186: 4185: 4183: 4168: 4165: 4163: 4160: 4158: 4155: 4153: 4150: 4148: 4145: 4143: 4140: 4138: 4135: 4133: 4130: 4128: 4125: 4123: 4120: 4118: 4115: 4113: 4110: 4108: 4105: 4103: 4100: 4098: 4095: 4093: 4090: 4088: 4085: 4083: 4080: 4078: 4075: 4073: 4072:Diurnal cycle 4070: 4068: 4065: 4063: 4060: 4058: 4055: 4053: 4050: 4048: 4045: 4043: 4040: 4038: 4035: 4033: 4030: 4028: 4025: 4023: 4020: 4019: 4017: 4011: 4007: 4000: 3995: 3993: 3988: 3986: 3981: 3980: 3977: 3965: 3964: 3955: 3953: 3952: 3943: 3941: 3940: 3931: 3929: 3928: 3917: 3916: 3913: 3899: 3896: 3894: 3891: 3889: 3886: 3882: 3879: 3878: 3877: 3874: 3872: 3869: 3867: 3866:Climate model 3864: 3862: 3859: 3858: 3856: 3852: 3846: 3843: 3841: 3838: 3836: 3833: 3831: 3828: 3826: 3823: 3821: 3818: 3816: 3813: 3811: 3808: 3804: 3801: 3800: 3799: 3798:Cloud forcing 3796: 3794: 3791: 3789: 3786: 3784: 3781: 3779: 3776: 3772: 3769: 3767: 3764: 3762: 3759: 3757: 3754: 3753: 3752: 3749: 3747: 3744: 3743: 3741: 3737: 3731: 3728: 3726: 3723: 3721: 3718: 3716: 3713: 3712: 3710: 3706: 3702: 3695: 3691: 3677: 3674: 3672: 3669: 3665: 3662: 3660: 3657: 3656: 3655: 3652: 3650: 3647: 3645: 3642: 3641: 3639: 3635: 3629: 3626: 3622: 3619: 3617: 3614: 3612: 3609: 3608: 3607: 3604: 3602: 3599: 3597: 3594: 3592: 3589: 3587: 3584: 3582: 3579: 3578: 3576: 3574: 3573:Communication 3570: 3564: 3561: 3559: 3556: 3554: 3553:Vulnerability 3551: 3549: 3546: 3544: 3541: 3539: 3536: 3534: 3531: 3529: 3526: 3524: 3523:Flood control 3521: 3519: 3516: 3514: 3511: 3509: 3506: 3504: 3501: 3500: 3498: 3496: 3492: 3486: 3483: 3481: 3478: 3476: 3473: 3471: 3468: 3466: 3463: 3461: 3458: 3456: 3453: 3451: 3448: 3444: 3441: 3440: 3439: 3436: 3434: 3431: 3429: 3426: 3424: 3421: 3420: 3418: 3414: 3410: 3406: 3400: 3396: 3380: 3377: 3376: 3375: 3372: 3371: 3369: 3365: 3359: 3356: 3353: 3350: 3346: 3345:reforestation 3343: 3341: 3338: 3336: 3333: 3331: 3330:afforestation 3328: 3327: 3325: 3323: 3320: 3318: 3315: 3311: 3308: 3306: 3303: 3302: 3301: 3298: 3296: 3293: 3292: 3290: 3288: 3282: 3276: 3273: 3271: 3268: 3266: 3265:Nuclear power 3263: 3259: 3256: 3255: 3254: 3251: 3249: 3246: 3245: 3243: 3239: 3233: 3230: 3228: 3225: 3223: 3220: 3218: 3215: 3213: 3210: 3208: 3205: 3203: 3200: 3198: 3195: 3193: 3190: 3188: 3185: 3183: 3180: 3176: 3173: 3172: 3171: 3168: 3166: 3163: 3161: 3160:Carbon budget 3158: 3157: 3155: 3153: 3149: 3145: 3141: 3136: 3132: 3118: 3115: 3113: 3110: 3108: 3105: 3103: 3100: 3098: 3095: 3093: 3090: 3088: 3085: 3083: 3080: 3078: 3075: 3073: 3070: 3068: 3065: 3064: 3062: 3060: 3056: 3050: 3047: 3045: 3042: 3040: 3037: 3035: 3032: 3030: 3027: 3025: 3022: 3020: 3017: 3015: 3012: 3010: 3007: 3005: 3002: 2998: 2997:Mental health 2995: 2994: 2993: 2990: 2988: 2985: 2983: 2980: 2976: 2973: 2972: 2971: 2968: 2966: 2963: 2961: 2958: 2956: 2953: 2951: 2948: 2946: 2943: 2941: 2938: 2936: 2933: 2929: 2928:United States 2926: 2924: 2921: 2920: 2919: 2916: 2915: 2913: 2909: 2903: 2900: 2898: 2895: 2893: 2890: 2888: 2885: 2883: 2880: 2878: 2875: 2871: 2868: 2867: 2866: 2863: 2862: 2860: 2856: 2850: 2847: 2845: 2842: 2840: 2837: 2835: 2832: 2830: 2827: 2825: 2822: 2820: 2817: 2815: 2812: 2810: 2807: 2803: 2800: 2798: 2795: 2793: 2790: 2788: 2785: 2783: 2782:deoxygenation 2780: 2778: 2777:acidification 2775: 2774: 2773: 2770: 2766: 2763: 2761: 2758: 2757: 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Index

North Atlantic oscillation
Atlantic meridional overturning circulation



variability
sea surface temperature
North Atlantic Ocean
amplitude
anthropogenic
The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars: Dispatches from the Front Lines
greenhouse gas
global warming
global warming
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
SST
Trenberth
EOF
EOF
subpolar gyre
Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
Ocean heat content
North Atlantic
Thermohaline Circulation
droughts
hurricane
Dust Bowl
Climate models
India
Sahel

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