538:
135:, assassinations, and terrorist attacks, due to such events appearing on interface pictures on the project website. "On the web site, as a backdrop to bold text, were faint background sample screens. In a small (less than 2 percent) section of two such screens, Polk had included as colorful examples of possible miscellaneous items an assassination of Yasser Arafat, a missile attack by North Korea, and the overthrow of the king of Jordan."
238:"DARPA's first call for proposals went out in May 2001 under the name "Electronic Market-Based Decision Support." The call basically said, 'We've heard this works elsewhere; show us it works for problems we care about.' Proposals were due in August, and by December two firms had won SBIR (small business independent research) grants."
79:
based on possible political developments in several Middle
Eastern countries. The theory behind such a market is that the monetary value of a futures contract on an event reflects the probability that that event will actually occur, since a market's actors rationally bid a contract either up or down
138:
They denounced the idea, with Wyden stating, "The idea of a federal betting parlor on atrocities and terrorism is ridiculous and it's grotesque", while Dorgan called it "useless, offensive and unbelievably stupid". Other critics offered similar outrage. Within less than a day,
187:, had previously offered futures on events such as the capture of Osama bin Laden, the US Presidential Election, and the bombing of Iran. As of March 10, 2013, all trading had been suspended on Intrade's website due to undisclosed financial irregularities.
158:
CNN reported the program would be relaunched by the private firm, Net
Exchange, that helped create it, but that the newer version "will not include any securities based on forecasts of violent events such as assassinations or terror attacks".
770:– Includes text and PDF versions of the DARPA press release announcing the end of PAM, and other materials such as a Dept. of Defense news briefing and archived images from the PAM funding proposal.
633:
150:
PAM had first been proposed and funded in 2001, Poindexter joined DARPA in
December 2002, and Hanson claimed that Poindexter "actually had little involvement with PAM".
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43:(DARPA), and based on an idea first proposed by Net Exchange, a San Diego, California, research firm specializing in the development of online
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500:"Middle East futures market returns. Private firm will restart Pentagon project, but without contracts for violence, in 2004"
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403:"Policy Analysis Market and the Political Yuck Factor – why Americans shied away from a geopolitical futures market"
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This is an archive of the official FutureMap and PAM webpage, which was eventually taken offline by DARPA.
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303:"The Policy Analysis Market (A Thwarted Experiment in the Use of Prediction Markets for Public Policy)"
302:
376:
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344:"Threats and Responses: Plans and Criticisms; Pentagon Prepares a Futures Market on Terror Attacks"
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based on reliable information. One of the models for PAM was a political futures market run by the
84:, which had predicted US election outcomes more accurately than either opinion polls or political
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PAM was to be "a market in the future of the Middle East", and would have allowed trading of
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634:"Damn the Slam PAM Plan! Canceling the Pentagon's futures market is cowardly and dumb"
147:, head of the DARPA unit responsible for developing it, had offered his resignation.
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172:. Another project was the American Action Market announced by Tad Hirsh of the
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750:"DARPA - FutureMAP Program - Policy Analysis Market (PAM) Cancelled"
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in 2003, which would permit for-profit betting on major events.
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announced the cancellation of PAM, and by the end of the week
381:
SleuthSayers: Professional Crime-Writers and Crime-Fighters
127:) claimed that PAM would allow trading in such events as
63:, and several journalists. Since PAM's closure, several
693:"The Informed Press Favored the Policy Analysis Market"
719:– A research paper analyzing the media reaction to PAM
621:– Transcript of the debate on the Senate floor after
664:"The Policy Analysis Market (and FutureMAP) Archive"
603:. July 29, 2003. Senate section, pp. S10082–S10083.
216:, a book which supported the Policy Analysis Market
47:. PAM was shut down in August 2003 after multiple
307:Innovations: Technology, Governance, Globalization
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795:– Contains relevant analytical quotes and clips.
207:Information Awareness Office FutureMap Project
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294:
292:
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128:
615:– via Project on Government Secrecy,
467:"Poindexter to Leave Pentagon Research Job"
183:markets that perform such functions. One,
67:variations on the idea have been launched.
628:
438:(Second ed.). Springer. p. 146.
582:Learn how and when to remove this message
318:
287:
268:Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency
168:launched a similar program, known as the
41:Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency
35:developed, beginning in May 2001, by the
545:This article includes a list of general
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735:from the original on September 12, 2019
153:
88:. PAM was also inspired by the work of
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104:At a July 28, 2003, press conference,
760:from the original on January 16, 2019
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498:Gongloff, Mark (November 17, 2003).
431:
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754:IWS – The Information Warfare Site
678:from the original on June 14, 2019
551:it lacks sufficient corresponding
432:Lee, Newton (April 7, 2015). "6".
363:
53:assassination and terrorism market
16:Proposed futures prediction market
14:
825:
709:from the original on May 13, 2019
617:Federation of American Scientists
607:from the original on May 13, 2016
527:
775:"Even More on Terrorist Futures"
691:Hanson, Robin (August 8, 2005).
536:
781:. July 30, 2003. Archived from
723:Hanson, Robin (June 12, 1996).
475:. July 31, 2003. Archived from
748:Naef, Wanja Eric, ed. (2003).
459:
425:
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375:Lundin, Leigh (July 7, 2013).
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411:Social Issues Research Centre
342:Hulse, Carl (July 29, 2003).
301:Hanson, Robin (August 2007).
245:
99:
377:"PAM, PRISM, and Poindexter"
264:Information Awareness Office
37:Information Awareness Office
7:
625:wrote an article about PAM.
190:
170:PopSci Predictions Exchange
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39:(IAO) of the United States
10:
830:
179:There are now commercial
320:10.1162/itgg.2007.2.3.73
282:– via InfoWar.net.
225:
31:project, was a proposed
672:George Mason University
566:more precise citations.
90:George Mason University
61:George Mason University
270:. 2003. Archived from
129:
21:Policy Analysis Market
260:"Programs: FutureMap"
601:Congressional Record
213:The Wisdom of Crowds
154:Further developments
646:on October 23, 2017
472:The Washington Post
51:condemned it as an
809:Prediction markets
623:The New York Times
597:"Trading in Death"
349:The New York Times
199:(also "dead pool")
162:On June 11, 2007,
82:University of Iowa
45:prediction markets
632:(July 30, 2003).
630:Surowiecki, James
592:
591:
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479:on August 5, 2012
445:978-3-319-17244-6
274:on April 22, 2012
220:Dumb agent theory
77:futures contracts
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725:"Idea Futures"
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789:October 29,
764:October 29,
739:October 29,
713:October 29,
682:October 29,
650:October 29,
611:October 29,
564:introducing
510:Time Warner
417:October 29,
355:October 29,
278:October 29,
106:US Senators
49:US senators
803:Categories
547:references
387:January 4,
246:References
203:Future Map
197:Death pool
100:Opposition
92:economist
121:Ron Wyden
29:FutureMAP
758:Archived
733:Archived
704:Archived
676:Archived
662:(2005).
605:Archived
515:July 16,
407:SIRC.org
329:57563194
191:See also
71:Proposal
560:improve
505:CNN.com
185:Intrade
86:pundits
549:, but
442:
413:. 2004
327:
119:) and
814:DARPA
707:(PDF)
696:(PDF)
639:Slate
325:S2CID
226:Notes
791:2019
766:2019
741:2019
715:2019
684:2019
652:2019
613:2019
517:2006
485:2017
453:2022
440:ISBN
419:2019
389:2014
357:2019
280:2019
205:and
19:The
315:doi
123:(D-
59:of
25:PAM
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125:OR
117:ND
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