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E-values

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journal publications referenced below sometimes coming years later). In these, the concept was finally given a proper name ("S-Value" and "E-Value"; in later versions of their paper, also adapted "E-Value"); describing their general properties, two generic ways to construct them, and their intimate relation to betting). Since then, interest by researchers around the world has been surging. In 2023 the first overview paper on "safe, anytime-valid methods", in which e-values play a central role, appeared.
6522:", and so on. With e-processes, we obtain an e-variable with any such rule. Crucially, the data analyst may not know the rule used for stopping. For example, her boss may tell her to stop data collecting and she may not know exactly why - nevertheless, she gets a valid e-variable and Type-I error control. This is in sharp contrast to data analysis based on p-values (which becomes invalid if stopping rules are not determined in advance) or in classical Wald-style 794:. But, whereas with standard p-values the inequality (*) above is usually an equality (with continuous-valued data) or near-equality (with discrete data), this is not the case with e-variables. This makes e-value-based tests more conservative (less power) than those based on standard p-values, and it is the price to pay for safety (i.e., retaining Type-I error guarantees) under optional continuation and averaging. 1044:. Thus, when the null is simple, e-variables coincide with likelihood ratios. E-variables exist for general composite nulls as well though, and they may then be thought of as generalizations of likelihood ratios. The two main ways of constructing e-variables, UI and RIPr (see below) both lead to expressions that are variations of likelihood ratios as well. 54:, are the fundamental building blocks for anytime-valid statistical methods (e.g. confidence sequences). Another advantage over p-values is that any weighted average of e-values remains an e-value, even if the individual e-values are arbitrarily dependent. This is one of the reasons why e-values have also turned out to be useful tools in 7061:
in various papers with various collaborators (e.g.), and an independent re-invention of the concept in an entirely different field, the concept did not catch on at all until 2019, when, within just a few months, several pioneering papers by several research groups appeared on arXiv (the corresponding
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Finally, in practice, one sometimes resorts to mathematically or computationally convenient combinations of RIPr, UI and other methods. For example, RIPr is applied to get optimal e-variables for small blocks of outcomes and these are then multiplied to obtain e-variables for larger samples - these
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The advantage of the UI method compared to RIPr is that (a) it can be applied whenever the MLE can be efficiently computed - in many such cases, it is not known whether/how the reverse information projection can be calculated; and (b) that it 'automatically' gives not just an e-variable but a full
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In contrast to p-values, e-values can deal with optional continuation: e-values of subsequent experiments (e.g. clinical trials concerning the same treatment) may simply be multiplied to provide a new, "product" e-value that represents the evidence in the joint experiment. This works even if, as
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Its main disadvantage compared to RIPr is that it can be substantially sub-optimal in terms of the e-power/GRO criterion, which means that it leads to tests which also have less classical statistical power than RIPr-based methods. Thus, for settings in which the RIPr-method is computationally
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e-value: it is an e-variable by definition, but it will never allow us to reject the null hypothesis. This example shows that some e-variables may be better than others, in a sense to be defined below. Intuitively, a good e-variable is one that tends to be large (much larger than 1) if the
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often happens in practice, the decision to perform later experiments may depend in vague, unknown ways on the data observed in earlier experiments, and it is not known beforehand how many trials will be conducted: the product e-value remains a meaningful quantity, leading to tests with
5666:, and this domination is strict if the inequality is strict. An admissible calibrator is one that is not strictly dominated by any other calibrator. One can show that for a function to be a calibrator, it must have an integral of at most 1 over the uniform probability measure. 4324:". The method of mixtures essentially amounts to "being Bayesian about the numerator" (the reason it is not called "Bayesian method" is that, when both null and alternative are composite, the numerator may often not be a Bayes marginal): we posit any prior distribution 5423: 5096: 1373:. If the null is composite, then some special e-variables can be written as Bayes factors with some very special priors, but most Bayes factors one encounters in practice are not e-variables and many e-variables one encounters in practice are not Bayes factors. 2458:
as large as possible in the "e-power" or "GRO" sense (see below). Waudby-Smith and Ramdas use this approach to construct "nonparametric" confidence intervals for the mean that tend to be significantly narrower than those based on more classical methods such as
4058: 5487:. However, in many other statistical testing problems, it is currently (2023) unknown whether fast implementations of the reverse information projection exist, and they may very well not exist (e.g. generalized linear models without the model-X assumption). 650: 1505:. Based on this interpretation, the product e-value for a sequence of tests can be interpreted as the amount of money you have gained by sequentially betting with pay-offs given by the individual e-variables and always re-investing all your gains. 61:
E-values can be interpreted in a number of different ways: first, the reciprocal of any e-value is itself a p-value, but a special, conservative one, quite different from p-values used in practice. Second, they are broad generalizations of
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Bacillus Calmette-Guérin vaccine to reduce COVID-19 infections and hospitalisations in healthcare workers – a living systematic review and prospective ALL-IN meta-analysis of individual participant data from randomised controlled
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type. However, while these superficially look very different from likelihood ratios, they can often still be interpreted as such and sometimes can even be re-interpreted as implementing a version of the RIPr-construction.
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feasible and leads to e-processes, it is to be preferred. These include the z-test, t-test and corresponding linear regressions, k-sample tests with Bernoulli, Gaussian and Poisson distributions and the logrank test (
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of each e-value is allowed to depend on all previous outcomes, and no matter what rule is used to decide when to stop gathering new samples (e.g. to perform new trials). It follows that, for any significance level
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E-values are more suitable than p-value when one expects follow-up tests involving the same null hypothesis with different data or experimental set-ups. This includes, for example, combining individual results in a
1055:. Importantly, neither (a) nor (b) are e-variables in general: generalized likelihood ratios in sense (a) are not e-variables unless the alternative is simple (see below under "universal inference"). Bayes factors 3572:
have densities (denoted by lower-case letters) relative to the same underlying measure. Grünwald et al. show that under weak regularity conditions, the GRO e-variable exists, is essentially unique, and is given by
2271: 6550:-aggressive rule is always allowed. Because of this validity under optional stopping, e-processes are the fundamental building block of confidence sequences, also known as anytime-valid confidence intervals. 1112: 74:. Interest in e-values has exploded since 2019, when the term 'e-value' was coined and a number of breakthrough results were achieved by several research groups. The first overview article appeared in 2023. 6526:(which works with data of varying length but again, with stopping times that need to be determined in advance). In more complex cases, the stopping time has to be defined relative to some slightly reduced 4235: 3530: 3110:
an alternative is available, we would like them to be small (p-values) or large (e-values) with high probability. In standard hypothesis tests, the quality of a valid test is formalized by the notion of
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have densities relative to the same underlying measure. There are now two generic, closely related ways of obtaining e-variables that are close to growth-optimal (appropriately redefined for composite
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Ter Schure, J.A. (Judith); Ly, Alexander; Belin, Lisa; Benn, Christine S.; Bonten, Marc J.M.; Cirillo, Jeffrey D.; Damen, Johanna A.A.; Fronteira, Inês; Hendriks, Kelly D. (2022-12-19).
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While of theoretical importance, calibration is not much used in the practical design of e-variables since the resulting e-variables are often far from growth-optimal for any given
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Historically, e-values implicitly appear as building blocks of nonnegative supermartingales in the pioneering work on anytime-valid confidence methods by well-known mathematician
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and some of his students. The first time e-values (or something very much like them) are treated as a quantity of independent interest is by another well-known mathematician,
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is a test supermartingale, and hence also an e-process (note that we already used this construction in the example described under "e-values as bets" above: for fixed
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is an e-variable" and "if the null hypothesis is true, you do not expect to gain any money if you engage in this bet" are logically equivalent. This is because
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can be decomposed as a product of per-outcome e-values in this way though. If this is not possible, we cannot use them for optional stopping (within a sample
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Conversely, an e-to-p calibrator transforms e-values back into p-variables. Interestingly, the following calibrator dominates all other e-to-p calibrators:
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alternative is true. This is analogous to the situation with p-values: both e-values and p-values can be defined without referring to an alternative, but
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Mathematically, this is shown by first showing that the product e-variables form a nonnegative discrete-time martingale in the filtration generated by
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settings (such as testing a mean as in the example above, or nonparametric 2-sample testing), it is often more natural to consider e-variables of the
5475:, the resulting ratio is still an e-variable; for the reverse information projection this automatic e-process generation only holds in special cases. 4376: 450:(a number) is often used when one is really referring to the underlying e-variable (a random variable, that is, a measurable function of the data). 5275:
as an alternative). Note in particular that when using the plug-in method together with the UI method, the resulting e-variable will look like
2186: 70:. Third, they have an interpretation as bets. Finally, in a sequential context, they can also be interpreted as increments of nonnegative 1062: 6557:, which are nonnegative supermartingales with starting value 1: any test supermartingale constitutes an e-process but not vice versa. 38:(e.g., "the coin is fair", or, in a medical context, "this new treatment has no effect"). They serve as a more robust alternative to 7330: 6736:(again, in complex testing problems this definition needs to be modified a bit using reduced filtrations). Then the product process 3268:; in case of composite alternatives, there are various versions (e.g. worst-case absolute, worst-case relative) of e-power and GRO. 2480:
Indeed, they have been employed in what may be the world's first fully 'online' meta-analysis with explicit Type-I error control.
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We already implicitly used product e-variables in the example above, where we defined e-variables on individual outcomes
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Another way to construct an e-process is to use the universal inference construction described above for sample sizes
4053:{\displaystyle E={\frac {q(Y)}{\sup _{P\in H_{0}}p(Y)}}\left(={\frac {q(Y)}{{p}_{{\hat {\theta }}\mid Y}(Y)}}\right)} 2688:. Thus if we decide to combine the samples observed so far and reject the null if the product e-value is larger than 2351: 6076: 5199: 5120: 4875: 1047:
Two other standard generalizations of the likelihood ratio are (a) the generalized likelihood ratio as used in the
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which resembles, but is still fundamentally different from, the generalized likelihood ratio as used in the
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being an e-variable means that the expected gain of buying the ticket is the pay-off minus the cost, i.e.
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is guaranteed to be nonnegative). We may then define a new e-variable for the complete data vector
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In basic cases, the stopping time can be defined by any rule that determines, at each sample size
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in economics and (since it does exhibit close relations to classical power) is sometimes called
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and designed a new e-value by taking products. Thus, in the example, the individual outcomes
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settings, we can simply combine the main methods for the composite alternative (obtaining
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is available for a subset of these), as well as conditional independence testing under a
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nulls, writing it as a likelihood ratio is usually mathematically more convenient. The
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The betting interpretation becomes particularly visible if we rewrite an e-variable as
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E-processes can be constructed in a number of ways. Often, one starts with an e-value
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method, "universal" referring to the fact that no regularity conditions are required.
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Informally, optional continuation implies that the product of any number of e-values,
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There exist functions that convert p-values into e-values. Such functions are called
3896:{\displaystyle p_{\curvearrowleft Q}(Y)=\int _{\Theta _{0}}p_{\theta }(Y)dW(\theta )} 7590:
Shafer, Glenn; Shen, Alexander; Vereshchagin, Nikolai; Vovk, Vladimir (2011-02-01).
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are made. Then we may first construct a family of e-variables for single outcomes,
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Effectively, both the method of mixtures and the plug-in method can be thought of
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is always well-defined). This way of constructing e-variables has been called the
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In the same setting as above, show that, under no regularity conditions at all,
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The standard notion of quality of an e-variable relative to a given alternative
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Ramdas, Aaditya; Grünwald, Peter; Vovk, Vladimir; Shafer, Glenn (2023-11-01).
7846: 7832: 7765: 7721: 7667: 7625: 7573: 7524: 7516: 7423: 7369: 7278: 7270: 7226: 7203:"Testing by Betting: A Strategy for Statistical and Scientific Communication" 7184: 7114: 7058: 6261: 2473: 67: 7414: 7387: 5528:
e-variables work well in practice but cannot be considered optimal anymore.
2636:, if the null is true, then the probability that a product of e-values will 7783: 7644:"A Logic of Probability, with Application to the Foundations of Statistics" 7431: 7054: 6530:, but this is not a big restriction in practice. In particular, the level- 4313: 1381:
Suppose you can buy a ticket for 1 monetary unit, with nonnegative pay-off
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Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B: Statistical Methodology
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Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B: Statistical Methodology
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Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B: Statistical Methodology
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Candès, Emmanuel; Fan, Yingying; Janson, Lucas; Lv, Jinchi (2018-01-08).
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Wasserman, Larry; Ramdas, Aaditya; Balakrishnan, Sivaraman (2020-07-06).
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a specific instantiation of the alternative that explains the data well.
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Simple alternative, composite null: reverse information projection (RIPr)
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Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society
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which, when applied to a p-variable (a random variable whose value is a
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but this notion has to be suitably modified in the context of e-values.
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One family of admissible calibrators is given by the set of functions
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is an e-variable. Conversely, any e-variable relative to a simple null
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Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B (Methodological)
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a fixed sample size or some stopping time. We shall refer to such
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estimator (such as, for example, the regression coefficients in
3163:(often abbreviated to GRO). In the case of a simple alternative 3147:, used by most authors in the field, is a generalization of the 2466: 50:. For this reason, e-values and their sequential extension, the 4062:
is an e-variable (with the second equality holding if the MLE (
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whose definition is allowed to depend on previous data, i.e.,
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e-variables if the null is simple. To see this, note that, if
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may also be an unordered bag of outcomes or a single outcome.
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settings. As a prototypical example, consider the case that
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depending on the past, they became dependent on past data).
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A third construction method: p-to-e (and e-to-p) calibration
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Simple alternative, composite null: universal inference (UI)
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as above to be the Bayes marginal distribution with density
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Zhang, Yanbao; Glancy, Scott; Knill, Emanuel (2011-12-22).
7501:"Universal coding, information, prediction, and estimation" 7385: 3633:{\displaystyle E:={\frac {q(Y)}{p_{\curvearrowleft Q}(Y)}}} 7589: 7329:
Grünwald, Peter; De Heide, Rianne; Koolen, Wouter (2024).
6844:{\displaystyle M_{n}=E_{1}\times E_{2}\cdots \times E_{n}} 1241:{\displaystyle q(Y)=\int q_{\theta }(Y)w(\theta )d\theta } 797: 7245:"Estimating means of bounded random variables by betting" 4865:{\displaystyle {\breve {\theta }}\mid X^{0}:=\theta _{0}} 77: 7148: 3420:
has maximal e-power in the sense above, i.e. it is GRO.
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can be written as a (measurable) function of the first
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remains safe (Type-I valid) under optional continuation
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both be simple. Then the likelihood ratio e-variable
2995:) but only for optional continuation (from one sample 2955:. Not all e-variables defined for batches of outcomes 2032:{\displaystyle E_{i,\lambda }:=1+\lambda (X_{i}-\mu )} 7740:"Confidence Sequences for Mean, Variance, and Median" 7688:"E-values: Calibration, combination and applications" 7291: 7001: 6969: 6910: 6877: 6857: 6788: 6742: 6628: 6598: 6571: 6553:
Technically, e-processes are generalizations of test
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can be written as a likelihood ratio with respect to
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Not to be confused with 7537: 7297:(Report). Infectious Diseases (except HIV/AIDS). 7243:Waudby-Smith, Ian; Ramdas, Aaditya (2023-02-16). 5778:. Another calibrator is given by integrating out 5713:{\displaystyle \{f_{\kappa }:0<\kappa <1\}} 5108: 3272:Simple alternative, simple null: likelihood ratio 7844: 7796: 6125:be another discrete-time process where for each 5949: 5455:in the formula above by a general stopping time 3944: 7744:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 7392:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 3763:: there exists a specific, unique distribution 2418:{\displaystyle X^{i-1}=(X_{1},\ldots ,X_{i-1})} 7738:Darling, D. A.; Robbins, Herbert (July 1967). 7737: 7592:"Test Martingales, Bayes Factors and p-Values" 7347: 6904:were not dependent on past-data, but by using 4539:To explicate the plug-in method, suppose that 3070: 42:, addressing some shortcomings of the latter. 5232:{\displaystyle {\bar {q}}_{\breve {\theta }}} 5153:{\displaystyle {\bar {q}}_{\breve {\theta }}} 4908:{\displaystyle {\bar {q}}_{\breve {\theta }}} 4809:. In practice one usually takes a "smoothed" 2467:A fundamental property: optional continuation 7081:"False Discovery Rate Control with E-values" 5707: 5676: 4872:. One now recursively constructs a density 4678:{\displaystyle {\breve {\theta }}\mid X^{i}} 4224: 4192: 4159: 4153: 3519: 3487: 3454: 3448: 3348: 3342: 3309: 3296: 3189: 3183: 1101: 1076: 1007: 994: 835: 822: 112:be given as a set of distributions for data 66:and are also related to, yet distinct from, 34:quantify the evidence in the data against a 7079:Wang, Ruodu; Ramdas, Aaditya (2022-07-01). 6441:, "stop as soon as you can reject at level 4776:{\displaystyle X^{i}=(X_{1},\ldots ,X_{i})} 2899:above, and we can therefore even engage in 2866:play the role of 'batches' (full samples) 2319:{\displaystyle {\breve {\lambda }}|X^{i-1}} 1675:a.s. Any e-variable can be written in the 945:{\displaystyle E:={\frac {q(Y)}{p_{0}(Y)}}} 458: 183:{\displaystyle Y=(X_{1},\ldots ,X_{\tau })} 7686:Vovk, Vladimir; Wang, Ruodu (2021-06-01). 7078: 1642:{\displaystyle \lambda \in {\mathbb {R} }} 7814: 7773: 7755: 7703: 7607: 7555: 7413: 7403: 7260: 7166: 7096: 6651: 6325: 4817:), initially set to some "default value" 4643:constitute a stochastic process and let 3232: 1634: 1049:standard, classical likelihood ratio test 380: 7685: 7498: 4237:be composite, such that all elements of 3532:be composite, such that all elements of 2736:. We say that testing based on e-values 2461:Chernoff, Hoeffding and Bernstein bounds 409:{\displaystyle {\mathbb {E} }_{P}\leq 1} 7505:IEEE Transactions on Information Theory 5620:is said to dominate another calibrator 4590:{\displaystyle Y=(X_{1},\ldots ,X_{n})} 2794:{\displaystyle Y_{(1)},Y_{(2)},\ldots } 2592:{\displaystyle Y_{(1)},Y_{(2)},\ldots } 2534:{\displaystyle E_{(1)},E_{(2)},\ldots } 1912:are i.i.d. according to a distribution 1792:{\displaystyle Y=(X_{1},\ldots ,X_{n})} 798:As generalizations of likelihood ratios 7845: 7200: 6075:arriving sequentially, constituting a 5600:), yields an e-variable. A calibrator 4711:{\displaystyle \theta \in \Theta _{1}} 4529:{\displaystyle {\bar {q}}_{W}(Y)/p(Y)} 4094:{\displaystyle {\hat {\theta }}\mid Y} 3222:is simply defined as the expectation 1826:taking values in the bounded interval 368:, its expected value is bounded by 1: 78:Definition and mathematical background 7733: 7731: 7681: 7679: 7677: 7637: 7635: 7585: 7583: 7461: 7196: 7194: 7144: 6203:{\displaystyle (X_{1},\ldots ,X_{n})} 5435:e-process (see below): if we replace 3752:{\displaystyle p_{\curvearrowleft Q}} 3675:Reverse Information Projection (RIPr) 3665:{\displaystyle p_{\curvearrowleft Q}} 1366:{\displaystyle H_{1}:={\mathcal {Q}}} 7641: 7468:Encyclopedia of Statistical Sciences 7451:. J. Wiley & sons, Incorporated. 7444: 7381: 7379: 7324: 7322: 7320: 7318: 7316: 7314: 7312: 7238: 7236: 7142: 7140: 7138: 7136: 7134: 7132: 7130: 7128: 7126: 7124: 3202:, the e-power of a given e-variable 2599:, is itself an e-value, even if the 1114:represents a statistical model, and 7448:Sequential analysis (Section 10.10) 7034:{\displaystyle E_{1},E_{2},\ldots } 6995:The resulting sequence of e-values 6775:{\displaystyle M_{1},M_{2},\ldots } 6515:{\displaystyle E_{n}\geq 1/\alpha } 6249:{\displaystyle E_{1},E_{2},\ldots } 6118:{\displaystyle E_{1},E_{2},\ldots } 6068:{\displaystyle X_{1},X_{2},\ldots } 4636:{\displaystyle X_{1},X_{2},\ldots } 3101:independently of the data we get a 13: 7728: 7674: 7660:10.1111/j.2517-6161.1993.tb01904.x 7632: 7580: 7191: 7041:will then always be an e-process. 5580: 4699: 4417: 4352: 4215: 4129:Composite alternative, simple null 3848: 3791: 3510: 3261:{\displaystyle {\mathbb {E} }_{Q}} 2541:, defined on independent samples 1358: 1141: 1098: 1068: 508:{\displaystyle 0<\alpha \leq 1} 453: 14: 7874: 7376: 7309: 7233: 7121: 5978:{\displaystyle f(t):=\min(1,1/t)} 2629:{\displaystyle 0<\alpha <1} 848:be a simple null hypothesis. Let 6077:discrete-time stochastic process 2803:Doob's optional stopping theorem 954:be their likelihood ratio. Then 7790: 7531: 7492: 7455: 6560: 6296:is an e-variable, i.e. for all 6289:{\displaystyle \tau ,E_{\tau }} 5429:classical likelihood ratio test 4270:{\displaystyle H_{0}\cup H_{1}} 3565:{\displaystyle H_{0}\cup H_{1}} 3413:{\displaystyle E=q(Y)/p_{0}(Y)} 3315:{\displaystyle H_{0}=\{P_{0}\}} 1302:{\displaystyle E=q(Y)/p_{0}(Y)} 1013:{\displaystyle H_{0}=\{P_{0}\}} 841:{\displaystyle H_{0}=\{P_{0}\}} 763:{\displaystyle 1/E\leq \alpha } 7853:Statistical hypothesis testing 7438: 7341: 7285: 7072: 6930: 6897:{\displaystyle E_{i,\lambda }} 6715: 6676: 6662: 6349: 6336: 6197: 6165: 6019: 5972: 5952: 5943: 5937: 5899: 5883: 5743: 5737: 5589:{\displaystyle f:\rightarrow } 5583: 5571: 5568: 5565: 5553: 5409: 5396: 5375: 5359: 5346: 5268:{\displaystyle {\bar {q}}_{W}} 5253: 5210: 5189:{\displaystyle {\bar {q}}_{W}} 5174: 5131: 5109:Composite null and alternative 5085: 5053: 4988: 4975: 4956: 4886: 4770: 4738: 4584: 4552: 4523: 4517: 4506: 4500: 4488: 4459: 4453: 4444: 4438: 4405: 4399: 4387: 4316:as "prequential plug-in" and 4079: 4039: 4033: 4019: 4001: 3995: 3975: 3969: 3938: 3932: 3890: 3884: 3875: 3869: 3836: 3830: 3624: 3618: 3600: 3594: 3407: 3401: 3383: 3377: 3255: 3243: 3052: 3040: 3013: 3007: 2884: 2878: 2780: 2774: 2761: 2755: 2578: 2572: 2559: 2553: 2520: 2514: 2501: 2495: 2451:{\displaystyle E_{i,\lambda }} 2412: 2374: 2296: 2241: 2154:{\displaystyle E_{i,\lambda }} 2095: 2078: 2066: 2052: 2026: 2007: 1845: 1833: 1786: 1754: 1536:{\displaystyle E:=1+\lambda U} 1403: 1397: 1296: 1290: 1272: 1266: 1229: 1223: 1217: 1211: 1192: 1186: 936: 930: 915: 909: 630: 624: 612: 592: 419:The value taken by e-variable 397: 391: 322: 316: 177: 145: 28:statistical hypothesis testing 1: 7065: 6461:-level, i.e. at the smallest 6024: 1952:; no other assumptions about 868:be any other distribution on 7642:Vovk, V. G. (January 1993). 7201:Shafer, Glenn (2021-04-01). 4064:maximum likelihood estimator 2903:"within" the original batch 2101:{\displaystyle \lambda \in } 7: 7462:Dawid, A. P. (2004-07-15). 7303:10.1101/2022.12.15.22283474 6988:{\displaystyle 1,2,\ldots } 5516:{\displaystyle 1+\lambda U} 4364:{\displaystyle \Theta _{1}} 4165:{\displaystyle H_{0}=\{P\}} 3803:{\displaystyle \Theta _{0}} 3460:{\displaystyle H_{1}=\{Q\}} 3354:{\displaystyle H_{1}=\{Q\}} 3195:{\displaystyle H_{1}=\{Q\}} 3071:Construction and optimality 1730:{\displaystyle 1+\lambda U} 1697:{\displaystyle 1+\lambda U} 10: 7879: 7825:10.1103/physreva.84.062118 7499:Rissanen, J. (July 1984). 7476:10.1002/0471667196.ess0335 7044: 2348:, based only on past data 2341:{\displaystyle {\lambda }} 1612:{\displaystyle P\in H_{0}} 1376: 1309:is also a Bayes factor of 541:{\displaystyle P\in H_{0}} 361:{\displaystyle P\in H_{0}} 18: 3060:{\displaystyle Y_{(j+1)}} 2948:{\displaystyle 1/\alpha } 2709:{\displaystyle 1/\alpha } 2661:{\displaystyle 1/\alpha } 7692:The Annals of Statistics 7517:10.1109/tit.1984.1056936 6864:{\displaystyle \lambda } 4123:universal inference (UI) 2425:, and designed to make 2121:{\displaystyle \lambda } 1482:, which has expectation 684:e-value based test with 459:As conservative p-values 7415:10.1073/pnas.1922664117 7354:SSRN Electronic Journal 6543:{\displaystyle \alpha } 6454:{\displaystyle \alpha } 6432:{\displaystyle \alpha } 6151:{\displaystyle n,E_{n}} 5791:{\displaystyle \kappa } 5659:{\displaystyle f\geq g} 4802:{\displaystyle i\geq 0} 4474:and use the e-variable 3021:{\displaystyle Y_{(j)}} 2892:{\displaystyle Y_{(j)}} 2729:{\displaystyle \alpha } 2681:{\displaystyle \alpha } 1668:{\displaystyle E\geq 0} 1147:{\displaystyle \Theta } 787:{\displaystyle \alpha } 700:{\displaystyle \alpha } 7464:"Prequential Analysis" 7445:Wald, Abraham (1947). 7271:10.1093/jrsssb/qkad009 7035: 6989: 6954: 6898: 6865: 6845: 6776: 6728: 6613: 6586: 6544: 6516: 6475: 6455: 6433: 6411: 6385: 6362: 6290: 6250: 6204: 6152: 6119: 6069: 6010: 5979: 5915: 5792: 5772: 5714: 5660: 5634: 5614: 5590: 5517: 5469: 5449: 5419: 5307: 5269: 5233: 5190: 5154: 5092: 5014: 4936: 4909: 4866: 4803: 4777: 4712: 4679: 4637: 4591: 4530: 4466: 4365: 4338: 4298: 4271: 4231: 4166: 4115: 4095: 4054: 3897: 3804: 3777: 3753: 3723: 3692: 3666: 3634: 3566: 3526: 3461: 3414: 3355: 3316: 3262: 3216: 3196: 3141: 3095: 3061: 3022: 2989: 2969: 2949: 2917: 2893: 2860: 2833: 2795: 2730: 2710: 2682: 2662: 2630: 2593: 2535: 2478:optional continuation. 2452: 2419: 2342: 2320: 2267: 2216: 2181:by taking the product 2175: 2155: 2122: 2102: 2033: 1966: 1946: 1926: 1906: 1879: 1852: 1820: 1793: 1731: 1698: 1669: 1643: 1613: 1580: 1579:{\displaystyle \leq 0} 1557: 1537: 1499: 1498:{\displaystyle \leq 0} 1476: 1450: 1430: 1410: 1409:{\displaystyle E=E(Y)} 1367: 1330: 1303: 1242: 1168: 1148: 1128: 1108: 1038: 1014: 968: 946: 882: 862: 842: 788: 764: 730: 701: 682:is a p-value, and the 676: 646: 542: 509: 477: 446:In practice, the term 433: 410: 362: 329: 328:{\displaystyle E=E(Y)} 279: 251: 231: 211: 184: 126: 106: 7388:"Universal inference" 7036: 6990: 6955: 6899: 6866: 6846: 6777: 6729: 6614: 6612:{\displaystyle X_{i}} 6587: 6585:{\displaystyle S_{i}} 6545: 6517: 6476: 6456: 6434: 6412: 6410:{\displaystyle n=100} 6386: 6363: 6291: 6251: 6205: 6153: 6120: 6070: 6011: 6009:{\displaystyle H_{1}} 5980: 5916: 5793: 5773: 5715: 5661: 5635: 5615: 5591: 5518: 5470: 5468:{\displaystyle \tau } 5450: 5420: 5287: 5270: 5234: 5191: 5155: 5093: 4994: 4937: 4935:{\displaystyle X^{n}} 4910: 4867: 4804: 4778: 4713: 4680: 4638: 4592: 4531: 4467: 4366: 4339: 4299: 4297:{\displaystyle H_{1}} 4272: 4232: 4167: 4116: 4096: 4055: 3898: 3805: 3778: 3754: 3724: 3722:{\displaystyle H_{0}} 3693: 3667: 3635: 3567: 3527: 3462: 3415: 3356: 3317: 3263: 3217: 3197: 3142: 3140:{\displaystyle H_{1}} 3096: 3062: 3023: 2990: 2970: 2950: 2918: 2894: 2861: 2859:{\displaystyle X_{i}} 2834: 2832:{\displaystyle X_{i}} 2796: 2731: 2711: 2683: 2663: 2631: 2594: 2536: 2453: 2420: 2343: 2321: 2268: 2196: 2176: 2156: 2123: 2103: 2034: 1967: 1947: 1927: 1907: 1905:{\displaystyle X_{i}} 1880: 1878:{\displaystyle H_{0}} 1853: 1821: 1819:{\displaystyle X_{i}} 1794: 1732: 1699: 1670: 1644: 1614: 1581: 1558: 1538: 1500: 1477: 1451: 1431: 1411: 1368: 1331: 1329:{\displaystyle H_{0}} 1304: 1243: 1169: 1149: 1129: 1109: 1039: 1015: 969: 947: 883: 863: 843: 789: 765: 731: 729:{\displaystyle P_{0}} 702: 677: 647: 543: 510: 478: 434: 411: 363: 330: 280: 252: 232: 230:{\displaystyle \tau } 217:a single outcome and 212: 210:{\displaystyle X_{i}} 185: 127: 107: 105:{\displaystyle H_{0}} 7858:Statistical concepts 7757:10.1073/pnas.58.1.66 7362:10.2139/ssrn.4206997 6999: 6967: 6908: 6875: 6855: 6786: 6740: 6626: 6596: 6569: 6534: 6485: 6465: 6445: 6423: 6395: 6375: 6300: 6267: 6214: 6162: 6129: 6083: 6033: 5993: 5931: 5805: 5782: 5724: 5673: 5644: 5624: 5604: 5544: 5498: 5459: 5439: 5281: 5243: 5200: 5164: 5121: 4946: 4919: 4876: 4821: 4787: 4722: 4689: 4685:be an estimator of 4647: 4601: 4543: 4478: 4377: 4348: 4328: 4281: 4241: 4176: 4137: 4105: 4070: 3917: 3814: 3787: 3767: 3759:is given by a Bayes 3733: 3706: 3682: 3646: 3579: 3536: 3471: 3432: 3365: 3326: 3280: 3226: 3206: 3167: 3124: 3094:{\displaystyle E:=1} 3079: 3032: 2999: 2979: 2959: 2931: 2907: 2870: 2843: 2816: 2747: 2720: 2692: 2672: 2644: 2608: 2545: 2487: 2429: 2352: 2330: 2280: 2187: 2165: 2132: 2112: 2043: 1976: 1956: 1945:{\displaystyle \mu } 1936: 1916: 1889: 1862: 1830: 1803: 1745: 1712: 1679: 1653: 1623: 1590: 1567: 1547: 1512: 1486: 1460: 1440: 1420: 1385: 1340: 1313: 1254: 1180: 1158: 1138: 1118: 1063: 1028: 978: 958: 894: 872: 852: 806: 778: 740: 713: 691: 658: 554: 519: 487: 467: 423: 374: 339: 335:such that under all 304: 269: 241: 221: 194: 136: 116: 89: 48:Type-I error control 7596:Statistical Science 7398:(29): 16880–16890. 7155:Statistical Science 6524:sequential analysis 5822: 3161:growth-rate optimal 2640:become larger than 2326:is an estimate for 1704:form although with 1649:is chosen so that 1475:{\displaystyle E-1} 1134:a prior density on 675:{\displaystyle 1/E} 463:For any e-variable 16:Statistical concept 7863:Probability theory 7714:10.1214/20-aos2020 7566:10.1111/rssb.12265 7219:10.1111/rssa.12647 7107:10.1111/rssb.12489 7031: 6985: 6950: 6894: 6861: 6841: 6772: 6724: 6609: 6582: 6540: 6512: 6471: 6451: 6429: 6407: 6381: 6358: 6286: 6246: 6210:outcomes. We call 6200: 6148: 6115: 6065: 6029:Now consider data 6006: 5975: 5911: 5808: 5788: 5768: 5710: 5656: 5630: 5610: 5586: 5538:p-to-e calibrators 5513: 5485:model-X assumption 5465: 5445: 5415: 5265: 5229: 5186: 5150: 5088: 4932: 4905: 4862: 4811:maximum likelihood 4799: 4773: 4708: 4675: 4633: 4587: 4526: 4462: 4361: 4334: 4306:method of mixtures 4294: 4267: 4227: 4162: 4111: 4091: 4050: 3965: 3893: 3800: 3773: 3749: 3719: 3688: 3662: 3630: 3562: 3522: 3457: 3410: 3351: 3312: 3258: 3212: 3192: 3137: 3091: 3057: 3018: 2985: 2965: 2945: 2913: 2889: 2856: 2829: 2807:Ville's inequality 2791: 2726: 2706: 2678: 2658: 2626: 2589: 2531: 2448: 2415: 2338: 2316: 2263: 2171: 2151: 2118: 2098: 2029: 1962: 1942: 1922: 1902: 1875: 1848: 1816: 1789: 1727: 1694: 1665: 1639: 1609: 1576: 1553: 1533: 1495: 1472: 1446: 1426: 1416:. The statements " 1406: 1363: 1326: 1299: 1238: 1164: 1154:, then we can set 1144: 1124: 1104: 1034: 1010: 964: 942: 878: 858: 838: 784: 760: 726: 697: 686:significance level 672: 642: 538: 505: 473: 429: 406: 358: 325: 275: 265:But in some cases 263:batch of outcomes. 247: 227: 207: 180: 122: 102: 7803:Physical Review A 7618:10.1214/10-sts347 7485:978-0-471-15044-2 7177:10.1214/23-sts894 6926: 6474:{\displaystyle n} 6384:{\displaystyle n} 5909: 5633:{\displaystyle g} 5613:{\displaystyle f} 5448:{\displaystyle n} 5413: 5378: 5322: 5256: 5225: 5213: 5177: 5146: 5134: 5029: 4971: 4959: 4901: 4889: 4833: 4659: 4491: 4390: 4337:{\displaystyle W} 4114:{\displaystyle Y} 4082: 4043: 4022: 3979: 3943: 3776:{\displaystyle W} 3691:{\displaystyle Q} 3628: 3215:{\displaystyle S} 3114:statistical power 2988:{\displaystyle Y} 2968:{\displaystyle Y} 2916:{\displaystyle Y} 2901:optional stopping 2292: 2237: 2174:{\displaystyle Y} 1965:{\displaystyle P} 1925:{\displaystyle P} 1563:has expectation 1556:{\displaystyle U} 1449:{\displaystyle E} 1429:{\displaystyle E} 1167:{\displaystyle Q} 1127:{\displaystyle w} 1037:{\displaystyle Q} 967:{\displaystyle E} 940: 881:{\displaystyle Y} 861:{\displaystyle Q} 638: 634: 617: 579: 476:{\displaystyle E} 432:{\displaystyle E} 278:{\displaystyle Y} 250:{\displaystyle Y} 125:{\displaystyle Y} 64:likelihood ratios 7870: 7837: 7836: 7818: 7794: 7788: 7787: 7777: 7759: 7735: 7726: 7725: 7707: 7683: 7672: 7671: 7639: 7630: 7629: 7611: 7587: 7578: 7577: 7559: 7535: 7529: 7528: 7496: 7490: 7489: 7459: 7453: 7452: 7442: 7436: 7435: 7417: 7407: 7383: 7374: 7373: 7345: 7339: 7338: 7326: 7307: 7306: 7289: 7283: 7282: 7264: 7240: 7231: 7230: 7198: 7189: 7188: 7170: 7146: 7119: 7118: 7100: 7076: 7040: 7038: 7037: 7032: 7024: 7023: 7011: 7010: 6994: 6992: 6991: 6986: 6959: 6957: 6956: 6951: 6949: 6948: 6933: 6928: 6927: 6919: 6903: 6901: 6900: 6895: 6893: 6892: 6870: 6868: 6867: 6862: 6850: 6848: 6847: 6842: 6840: 6839: 6824: 6823: 6811: 6810: 6798: 6797: 6781: 6779: 6778: 6773: 6765: 6764: 6752: 6751: 6733: 6731: 6730: 6725: 6714: 6713: 6689: 6688: 6679: 6674: 6673: 6661: 6660: 6655: 6654: 6644: 6643: 6618: 6616: 6615: 6610: 6608: 6607: 6591: 6589: 6588: 6583: 6581: 6580: 6555:supermartingales 6549: 6547: 6546: 6541: 6521: 6519: 6518: 6513: 6508: 6497: 6496: 6480: 6478: 6477: 6472: 6460: 6458: 6457: 6452: 6439:-aggressive rule 6438: 6436: 6435: 6430: 6416: 6414: 6413: 6408: 6390: 6388: 6387: 6382: 6367: 6365: 6364: 6359: 6348: 6347: 6335: 6334: 6329: 6328: 6318: 6317: 6295: 6293: 6292: 6287: 6285: 6284: 6255: 6253: 6252: 6247: 6239: 6238: 6226: 6225: 6209: 6207: 6206: 6201: 6196: 6195: 6177: 6176: 6157: 6155: 6154: 6149: 6147: 6146: 6124: 6122: 6121: 6116: 6108: 6107: 6095: 6094: 6074: 6072: 6071: 6066: 6058: 6057: 6045: 6044: 6015: 6013: 6012: 6007: 6005: 6004: 5984: 5982: 5981: 5976: 5968: 5920: 5918: 5917: 5912: 5910: 5908: 5907: 5906: 5878: 5852: 5841: 5840: 5821: 5816: 5797: 5795: 5794: 5789: 5777: 5775: 5774: 5769: 5767: 5766: 5736: 5735: 5719: 5717: 5716: 5711: 5688: 5687: 5665: 5663: 5662: 5657: 5639: 5637: 5636: 5631: 5619: 5617: 5616: 5611: 5595: 5593: 5592: 5587: 5522: 5520: 5519: 5514: 5474: 5472: 5471: 5466: 5454: 5452: 5451: 5446: 5424: 5422: 5421: 5416: 5414: 5412: 5408: 5407: 5395: 5394: 5393: 5392: 5380: 5379: 5371: 5362: 5358: 5357: 5345: 5344: 5343: 5342: 5324: 5323: 5315: 5306: 5301: 5285: 5274: 5272: 5271: 5266: 5264: 5263: 5258: 5257: 5249: 5238: 5236: 5235: 5230: 5228: 5227: 5226: 5218: 5215: 5214: 5206: 5195: 5193: 5192: 5187: 5185: 5184: 5179: 5178: 5170: 5159: 5157: 5156: 5151: 5149: 5148: 5147: 5139: 5136: 5135: 5127: 5097: 5095: 5094: 5089: 5084: 5083: 5065: 5064: 5052: 5051: 5050: 5049: 5031: 5030: 5022: 5013: 5008: 4987: 4986: 4974: 4973: 4972: 4964: 4961: 4960: 4952: 4941: 4939: 4938: 4933: 4931: 4930: 4914: 4912: 4911: 4906: 4904: 4903: 4902: 4894: 4891: 4890: 4882: 4871: 4869: 4868: 4863: 4861: 4860: 4848: 4847: 4835: 4834: 4826: 4815:ridge regression 4808: 4806: 4805: 4800: 4782: 4780: 4779: 4774: 4769: 4768: 4750: 4749: 4734: 4733: 4717: 4715: 4714: 4709: 4707: 4706: 4684: 4682: 4681: 4676: 4674: 4673: 4661: 4660: 4652: 4642: 4640: 4639: 4634: 4626: 4625: 4613: 4612: 4596: 4594: 4593: 4588: 4583: 4582: 4564: 4563: 4535: 4533: 4532: 4527: 4513: 4499: 4498: 4493: 4492: 4484: 4471: 4469: 4468: 4463: 4437: 4436: 4427: 4426: 4425: 4424: 4398: 4397: 4392: 4391: 4383: 4370: 4368: 4367: 4362: 4360: 4359: 4343: 4341: 4340: 4335: 4303: 4301: 4300: 4295: 4293: 4292: 4276: 4274: 4273: 4268: 4266: 4265: 4253: 4252: 4236: 4234: 4233: 4228: 4223: 4222: 4204: 4203: 4188: 4187: 4171: 4169: 4168: 4163: 4149: 4148: 4120: 4118: 4117: 4112: 4100: 4098: 4097: 4092: 4084: 4083: 4075: 4059: 4057: 4056: 4051: 4049: 4045: 4044: 4042: 4032: 4031: 4024: 4023: 4015: 4011: 4004: 3990: 3980: 3978: 3964: 3963: 3962: 3941: 3927: 3902: 3900: 3899: 3894: 3868: 3867: 3858: 3857: 3856: 3855: 3829: 3828: 3809: 3807: 3806: 3801: 3799: 3798: 3782: 3780: 3779: 3774: 3761:marginal density 3758: 3756: 3755: 3750: 3748: 3747: 3728: 3726: 3725: 3720: 3718: 3717: 3697: 3695: 3694: 3689: 3671: 3669: 3668: 3663: 3661: 3660: 3639: 3637: 3636: 3631: 3629: 3627: 3617: 3616: 3603: 3589: 3571: 3569: 3568: 3563: 3561: 3560: 3548: 3547: 3531: 3529: 3528: 3523: 3518: 3517: 3499: 3498: 3483: 3482: 3466: 3464: 3463: 3458: 3444: 3443: 3419: 3417: 3416: 3411: 3400: 3399: 3390: 3360: 3358: 3357: 3352: 3338: 3337: 3321: 3319: 3318: 3313: 3308: 3307: 3292: 3291: 3267: 3265: 3264: 3259: 3242: 3241: 3236: 3235: 3221: 3219: 3218: 3213: 3201: 3199: 3198: 3193: 3179: 3178: 3146: 3144: 3143: 3138: 3136: 3135: 3100: 3098: 3097: 3092: 3066: 3064: 3063: 3058: 3056: 3055: 3027: 3025: 3024: 3019: 3017: 3016: 2994: 2992: 2991: 2986: 2974: 2972: 2971: 2966: 2954: 2952: 2951: 2946: 2941: 2922: 2920: 2919: 2914: 2898: 2896: 2895: 2890: 2888: 2887: 2865: 2863: 2862: 2857: 2855: 2854: 2838: 2836: 2835: 2830: 2828: 2827: 2800: 2798: 2797: 2792: 2784: 2783: 2765: 2764: 2735: 2733: 2732: 2727: 2715: 2713: 2712: 2707: 2702: 2687: 2685: 2684: 2679: 2667: 2665: 2664: 2659: 2654: 2635: 2633: 2632: 2627: 2598: 2596: 2595: 2590: 2582: 2581: 2563: 2562: 2540: 2538: 2537: 2532: 2524: 2523: 2505: 2504: 2457: 2455: 2454: 2449: 2447: 2446: 2424: 2422: 2421: 2416: 2411: 2410: 2386: 2385: 2370: 2369: 2347: 2345: 2344: 2339: 2337: 2325: 2323: 2322: 2317: 2315: 2314: 2299: 2294: 2293: 2285: 2272: 2270: 2269: 2264: 2262: 2261: 2260: 2259: 2244: 2239: 2238: 2230: 2215: 2210: 2180: 2178: 2177: 2172: 2160: 2158: 2157: 2152: 2150: 2149: 2127: 2125: 2124: 2119: 2108:(these are the 2107: 2105: 2104: 2099: 2091: 2065: 2038: 2036: 2035: 2030: 2019: 2018: 1994: 1993: 1971: 1969: 1968: 1963: 1951: 1949: 1948: 1943: 1931: 1929: 1928: 1923: 1911: 1909: 1908: 1903: 1901: 1900: 1884: 1882: 1881: 1876: 1874: 1873: 1857: 1855: 1854: 1851:{\displaystyle } 1849: 1825: 1823: 1822: 1817: 1815: 1814: 1798: 1796: 1795: 1790: 1785: 1784: 1766: 1765: 1736: 1734: 1733: 1728: 1703: 1701: 1700: 1695: 1674: 1672: 1671: 1666: 1648: 1646: 1645: 1640: 1638: 1637: 1618: 1616: 1615: 1610: 1608: 1607: 1585: 1583: 1582: 1577: 1562: 1560: 1559: 1554: 1542: 1540: 1539: 1534: 1504: 1502: 1501: 1496: 1481: 1479: 1478: 1473: 1455: 1453: 1452: 1447: 1435: 1433: 1432: 1427: 1415: 1413: 1412: 1407: 1372: 1370: 1369: 1364: 1362: 1361: 1352: 1351: 1335: 1333: 1332: 1327: 1325: 1324: 1308: 1306: 1305: 1300: 1289: 1288: 1279: 1247: 1245: 1244: 1239: 1210: 1209: 1173: 1171: 1170: 1165: 1153: 1151: 1150: 1145: 1133: 1131: 1130: 1125: 1113: 1111: 1110: 1105: 1088: 1087: 1072: 1071: 1043: 1041: 1040: 1035: 1019: 1017: 1016: 1011: 1006: 1005: 990: 989: 973: 971: 970: 965: 951: 949: 948: 943: 941: 939: 929: 928: 918: 904: 887: 885: 884: 879: 867: 865: 864: 859: 847: 845: 844: 839: 834: 833: 818: 817: 793: 791: 790: 785: 769: 767: 766: 761: 750: 735: 733: 732: 727: 725: 724: 706: 704: 703: 698: 681: 679: 678: 673: 668: 651: 649: 648: 643: 636: 635: 633: 619: 615: 602: 585: 581: 580: 572: 548:, it holds that 547: 545: 544: 539: 537: 536: 514: 512: 511: 506: 482: 480: 479: 474: 438: 436: 435: 430: 415: 413: 412: 407: 390: 389: 384: 383: 367: 365: 364: 359: 357: 356: 334: 332: 331: 326: 300:random variable 284: 282: 281: 276: 256: 254: 253: 248: 236: 234: 233: 228: 216: 214: 213: 208: 206: 205: 189: 187: 186: 181: 176: 175: 157: 156: 131: 129: 128: 123: 111: 109: 108: 103: 101: 100: 72:supermartingales 56:multiple testing 7878: 7877: 7873: 7872: 7871: 7869: 7868: 7867: 7843: 7842: 7841: 7840: 7795: 7791: 7736: 7729: 7684: 7675: 7640: 7633: 7588: 7581: 7536: 7532: 7497: 7493: 7486: 7460: 7456: 7443: 7439: 7384: 7377: 7350:"E-backtesting" 7346: 7342: 7327: 7310: 7290: 7286: 7241: 7234: 7199: 7192: 7147: 7122: 7077: 7073: 7068: 7051:Herbert Robbins 7047: 7019: 7015: 7006: 7002: 7000: 6997: 6996: 6968: 6965: 6964: 6938: 6934: 6929: 6918: 6917: 6909: 6906: 6905: 6882: 6878: 6876: 6873: 6872: 6871:, the e-values 6856: 6853: 6852: 6835: 6831: 6819: 6815: 6806: 6802: 6793: 6789: 6787: 6784: 6783: 6760: 6756: 6747: 6743: 6741: 6738: 6737: 6703: 6699: 6684: 6680: 6675: 6669: 6665: 6656: 6650: 6649: 6648: 6639: 6635: 6627: 6624: 6623: 6603: 6599: 6597: 6594: 6593: 6576: 6572: 6570: 6567: 6566: 6563: 6535: 6532: 6531: 6504: 6492: 6488: 6486: 6483: 6482: 6466: 6463: 6462: 6446: 6443: 6442: 6424: 6421: 6420: 6396: 6393: 6392: 6376: 6373: 6372: 6343: 6339: 6330: 6324: 6323: 6322: 6313: 6309: 6301: 6298: 6297: 6280: 6276: 6268: 6265: 6264: 6234: 6230: 6221: 6217: 6215: 6212: 6211: 6191: 6187: 6172: 6168: 6163: 6160: 6159: 6142: 6138: 6130: 6127: 6126: 6103: 6099: 6090: 6086: 6084: 6081: 6080: 6053: 6049: 6040: 6036: 6034: 6031: 6030: 6027: 6022: 6000: 5996: 5994: 5991: 5990: 5964: 5932: 5929: 5928: 5902: 5898: 5879: 5853: 5851: 5830: 5826: 5817: 5812: 5806: 5803: 5802: 5783: 5780: 5779: 5756: 5752: 5731: 5727: 5725: 5722: 5721: 5683: 5679: 5674: 5671: 5670: 5645: 5642: 5641: 5625: 5622: 5621: 5605: 5602: 5601: 5545: 5542: 5541: 5534: 5499: 5496: 5495: 5460: 5457: 5456: 5440: 5437: 5436: 5403: 5399: 5388: 5384: 5370: 5369: 5368: 5364: 5363: 5353: 5349: 5332: 5328: 5314: 5313: 5312: 5308: 5302: 5291: 5286: 5284: 5282: 5279: 5278: 5259: 5248: 5247: 5246: 5244: 5241: 5240: 5217: 5216: 5205: 5204: 5203: 5201: 5198: 5197: 5180: 5169: 5168: 5167: 5165: 5162: 5161: 5138: 5137: 5126: 5125: 5124: 5122: 5119: 5118: 5111: 5073: 5069: 5060: 5056: 5039: 5035: 5021: 5020: 5019: 5015: 5009: 4998: 4982: 4978: 4963: 4962: 4951: 4950: 4949: 4947: 4944: 4943: 4926: 4922: 4920: 4917: 4916: 4893: 4892: 4881: 4880: 4879: 4877: 4874: 4873: 4856: 4852: 4843: 4839: 4825: 4824: 4822: 4819: 4818: 4788: 4785: 4784: 4764: 4760: 4745: 4741: 4729: 4725: 4723: 4720: 4719: 4718:based on data 4702: 4698: 4690: 4687: 4686: 4669: 4665: 4651: 4650: 4648: 4645: 4644: 4621: 4617: 4608: 4604: 4602: 4599: 4598: 4578: 4574: 4559: 4555: 4544: 4541: 4540: 4509: 4494: 4483: 4482: 4481: 4479: 4476: 4475: 4432: 4428: 4420: 4416: 4415: 4411: 4393: 4382: 4381: 4380: 4378: 4375: 4374: 4355: 4351: 4349: 4346: 4345: 4329: 4326: 4325: 4320:as "predictive 4288: 4284: 4282: 4279: 4278: 4261: 4257: 4248: 4244: 4242: 4239: 4238: 4218: 4214: 4199: 4195: 4183: 4179: 4177: 4174: 4173: 4172:be simple and 4144: 4140: 4138: 4135: 4134: 4131: 4106: 4103: 4102: 4074: 4073: 4071: 4068: 4067: 4014: 4013: 4012: 4007: 4006: 4005: 3991: 3989: 3985: 3981: 3958: 3954: 3947: 3942: 3928: 3926: 3918: 3915: 3914: 3909: 3863: 3859: 3851: 3847: 3846: 3842: 3821: 3817: 3815: 3812: 3811: 3794: 3790: 3788: 3785: 3784: 3768: 3765: 3764: 3740: 3736: 3734: 3731: 3730: 3713: 3709: 3707: 3704: 3703: 3683: 3680: 3679: 3653: 3649: 3647: 3644: 3643: 3609: 3605: 3604: 3590: 3588: 3580: 3577: 3576: 3556: 3552: 3543: 3539: 3537: 3534: 3533: 3513: 3509: 3494: 3490: 3478: 3474: 3472: 3469: 3468: 3439: 3435: 3433: 3430: 3429: 3426: 3395: 3391: 3386: 3366: 3363: 3362: 3333: 3329: 3327: 3324: 3323: 3303: 3299: 3287: 3283: 3281: 3278: 3277: 3274: 3237: 3231: 3230: 3229: 3227: 3224: 3223: 3207: 3204: 3203: 3174: 3170: 3168: 3165: 3164: 3149:Kelly criterion 3131: 3127: 3125: 3122: 3121: 3080: 3077: 3076: 3073: 3039: 3035: 3033: 3030: 3029: 3006: 3002: 3000: 2997: 2996: 2980: 2977: 2976: 2960: 2957: 2956: 2937: 2932: 2929: 2928: 2908: 2905: 2904: 2877: 2873: 2871: 2868: 2867: 2850: 2846: 2844: 2841: 2840: 2823: 2819: 2817: 2814: 2813: 2773: 2769: 2754: 2750: 2748: 2745: 2744: 2721: 2718: 2717: 2698: 2693: 2690: 2689: 2673: 2670: 2669: 2650: 2645: 2642: 2641: 2609: 2606: 2605: 2571: 2567: 2552: 2548: 2546: 2543: 2542: 2513: 2509: 2494: 2490: 2488: 2485: 2484: 2469: 2436: 2432: 2430: 2427: 2426: 2400: 2396: 2381: 2377: 2359: 2355: 2353: 2350: 2349: 2333: 2331: 2328: 2327: 2304: 2300: 2295: 2284: 2283: 2281: 2278: 2277: 2249: 2245: 2240: 2229: 2228: 2221: 2217: 2211: 2200: 2188: 2185: 2184: 2166: 2163: 2162: 2139: 2135: 2133: 2130: 2129: 2113: 2110: 2109: 2087: 2061: 2044: 2041: 2040: 2014: 2010: 1983: 1979: 1977: 1974: 1973: 1957: 1954: 1953: 1937: 1934: 1933: 1917: 1914: 1913: 1896: 1892: 1890: 1887: 1886: 1869: 1865: 1863: 1860: 1859: 1858:. According to 1831: 1828: 1827: 1810: 1806: 1804: 1801: 1800: 1780: 1776: 1761: 1757: 1746: 1743: 1742: 1713: 1710: 1709: 1680: 1677: 1676: 1654: 1651: 1650: 1633: 1632: 1624: 1621: 1620: 1603: 1599: 1591: 1588: 1587: 1568: 1565: 1564: 1548: 1545: 1544: 1513: 1510: 1509: 1487: 1484: 1483: 1461: 1458: 1457: 1441: 1438: 1437: 1421: 1418: 1417: 1386: 1383: 1382: 1379: 1357: 1356: 1347: 1343: 1341: 1338: 1337: 1320: 1316: 1314: 1311: 1310: 1284: 1280: 1275: 1255: 1252: 1251: 1205: 1201: 1181: 1178: 1177: 1159: 1156: 1155: 1139: 1136: 1135: 1119: 1116: 1115: 1083: 1079: 1067: 1066: 1064: 1061: 1060: 1029: 1026: 1025: 1001: 997: 985: 981: 979: 976: 975: 959: 956: 955: 924: 920: 919: 905: 903: 895: 892: 891: 873: 870: 869: 853: 850: 849: 829: 825: 813: 809: 807: 804: 803: 800: 779: 776: 775: 746: 741: 738: 737: 720: 716: 714: 711: 710: 692: 689: 688: 664: 659: 656: 655: 623: 618: 598: 571: 564: 560: 555: 552: 551: 532: 528: 520: 517: 516: 488: 485: 484: 468: 465: 464: 461: 456: 454:Interpretations 424: 421: 420: 385: 379: 378: 377: 375: 372: 371: 352: 348: 340: 337: 336: 305: 302: 301: 270: 267: 266: 242: 239: 238: 222: 219: 218: 201: 197: 195: 192: 191: 171: 167: 152: 148: 137: 134: 133: 117: 114: 113: 96: 92: 90: 87: 86: 84:null hypothesis 80: 36:null hypothesis 24: 17: 12: 11: 5: 7876: 7866: 7865: 7860: 7855: 7839: 7838: 7789: 7727: 7673: 7654:(2): 317–341. 7631: 7579: 7550:(3): 551–577. 7530: 7511:(4): 629–636. 7491: 7484: 7454: 7437: 7375: 7340: 7331:"Safe Testing" 7308: 7284: 7232: 7213:(2): 407–431. 7190: 7120: 7091:(3): 822–852. 7070: 7069: 7067: 7064: 7046: 7043: 7030: 7027: 7022: 7018: 7014: 7009: 7005: 6984: 6981: 6978: 6975: 6972: 6947: 6944: 6941: 6937: 6932: 6925: 6922: 6916: 6913: 6891: 6888: 6885: 6881: 6860: 6838: 6834: 6830: 6827: 6822: 6818: 6814: 6809: 6805: 6801: 6796: 6792: 6771: 6768: 6763: 6759: 6755: 6750: 6746: 6723: 6720: 6717: 6712: 6709: 6706: 6702: 6698: 6695: 6692: 6687: 6683: 6678: 6672: 6668: 6664: 6659: 6653: 6647: 6642: 6638: 6634: 6631: 6606: 6602: 6579: 6575: 6562: 6559: 6539: 6511: 6507: 6503: 6500: 6495: 6491: 6470: 6450: 6428: 6406: 6403: 6400: 6380: 6357: 6354: 6351: 6346: 6342: 6338: 6333: 6327: 6321: 6316: 6312: 6308: 6305: 6283: 6279: 6275: 6272: 6245: 6242: 6237: 6233: 6229: 6224: 6220: 6199: 6194: 6190: 6186: 6183: 6180: 6175: 6171: 6167: 6145: 6141: 6137: 6134: 6114: 6111: 6106: 6102: 6098: 6093: 6089: 6064: 6061: 6056: 6052: 6048: 6043: 6039: 6026: 6023: 6021: 6018: 6003: 5999: 5987: 5986: 5974: 5971: 5967: 5963: 5960: 5957: 5954: 5951: 5948: 5945: 5942: 5939: 5936: 5922: 5921: 5905: 5901: 5897: 5894: 5891: 5888: 5885: 5882: 5877: 5874: 5871: 5868: 5865: 5862: 5859: 5856: 5850: 5847: 5844: 5839: 5836: 5833: 5829: 5825: 5820: 5815: 5811: 5787: 5765: 5762: 5759: 5755: 5751: 5748: 5745: 5742: 5739: 5734: 5730: 5709: 5706: 5703: 5700: 5697: 5694: 5691: 5686: 5682: 5678: 5655: 5652: 5649: 5629: 5609: 5585: 5582: 5579: 5576: 5573: 5570: 5567: 5564: 5561: 5558: 5555: 5552: 5549: 5533: 5530: 5512: 5509: 5506: 5503: 5464: 5444: 5411: 5406: 5402: 5398: 5391: 5387: 5383: 5377: 5374: 5367: 5361: 5356: 5352: 5348: 5341: 5338: 5335: 5331: 5327: 5321: 5318: 5311: 5305: 5300: 5297: 5294: 5290: 5262: 5255: 5252: 5224: 5221: 5212: 5209: 5183: 5176: 5173: 5145: 5142: 5133: 5130: 5110: 5107: 5087: 5082: 5079: 5076: 5072: 5068: 5063: 5059: 5055: 5048: 5045: 5042: 5038: 5034: 5028: 5025: 5018: 5012: 5007: 5004: 5001: 4997: 4993: 4990: 4985: 4981: 4977: 4970: 4967: 4958: 4955: 4929: 4925: 4900: 4897: 4888: 4885: 4859: 4855: 4851: 4846: 4842: 4838: 4832: 4829: 4798: 4795: 4792: 4772: 4767: 4763: 4759: 4756: 4753: 4748: 4744: 4740: 4737: 4732: 4728: 4705: 4701: 4697: 4694: 4672: 4668: 4664: 4658: 4655: 4632: 4629: 4624: 4620: 4616: 4611: 4607: 4586: 4581: 4577: 4573: 4570: 4567: 4562: 4558: 4554: 4551: 4548: 4525: 4522: 4519: 4516: 4512: 4508: 4505: 4502: 4497: 4490: 4487: 4461: 4458: 4455: 4452: 4449: 4446: 4443: 4440: 4435: 4431: 4423: 4419: 4414: 4410: 4407: 4404: 4401: 4396: 4389: 4386: 4358: 4354: 4333: 4318:Jorma Rissanen 4310:plug-in method 4291: 4287: 4264: 4260: 4256: 4251: 4247: 4226: 4221: 4217: 4213: 4210: 4207: 4202: 4198: 4194: 4191: 4186: 4182: 4161: 4158: 4155: 4152: 4147: 4143: 4130: 4127: 4110: 4101:based on data 4090: 4087: 4081: 4078: 4048: 4041: 4038: 4035: 4030: 4027: 4021: 4018: 4010: 4003: 4000: 3997: 3994: 3988: 3984: 3977: 3974: 3971: 3968: 3961: 3957: 3953: 3950: 3946: 3940: 3937: 3934: 3931: 3925: 3922: 3908: 3905: 3892: 3889: 3886: 3883: 3880: 3877: 3874: 3871: 3866: 3862: 3854: 3850: 3845: 3841: 3838: 3835: 3832: 3827: 3824: 3820: 3797: 3793: 3772: 3746: 3743: 3739: 3716: 3712: 3687: 3659: 3656: 3652: 3626: 3623: 3620: 3615: 3612: 3608: 3602: 3599: 3596: 3593: 3587: 3584: 3559: 3555: 3551: 3546: 3542: 3521: 3516: 3512: 3508: 3505: 3502: 3497: 3493: 3489: 3486: 3481: 3477: 3467:be simple and 3456: 3453: 3450: 3447: 3442: 3438: 3425: 3422: 3409: 3406: 3403: 3398: 3394: 3389: 3385: 3382: 3379: 3376: 3373: 3370: 3350: 3347: 3344: 3341: 3336: 3332: 3311: 3306: 3302: 3298: 3295: 3290: 3286: 3273: 3270: 3257: 3254: 3251: 3248: 3245: 3240: 3234: 3211: 3191: 3188: 3185: 3182: 3177: 3173: 3134: 3130: 3090: 3087: 3084: 3072: 3069: 3054: 3051: 3048: 3045: 3042: 3038: 3015: 3012: 3009: 3005: 2984: 2964: 2944: 2940: 2936: 2912: 2886: 2883: 2880: 2876: 2853: 2849: 2826: 2822: 2790: 2787: 2782: 2779: 2776: 2772: 2768: 2763: 2760: 2757: 2753: 2725: 2705: 2701: 2697: 2677: 2668:is bounded by 2657: 2653: 2649: 2625: 2622: 2619: 2616: 2613: 2588: 2585: 2580: 2577: 2574: 2570: 2566: 2561: 2558: 2555: 2551: 2530: 2527: 2522: 2519: 2516: 2512: 2508: 2503: 2500: 2497: 2493: 2468: 2465: 2445: 2442: 2439: 2435: 2414: 2409: 2406: 2403: 2399: 2395: 2392: 2389: 2384: 2380: 2376: 2373: 2368: 2365: 2362: 2358: 2336: 2313: 2310: 2307: 2303: 2298: 2291: 2288: 2258: 2255: 2252: 2248: 2243: 2236: 2233: 2227: 2224: 2220: 2214: 2209: 2206: 2203: 2199: 2195: 2192: 2170: 2148: 2145: 2142: 2138: 2117: 2097: 2094: 2090: 2086: 2083: 2080: 2077: 2074: 2071: 2068: 2064: 2060: 2057: 2054: 2051: 2048: 2028: 2025: 2022: 2017: 2013: 2009: 2006: 2003: 2000: 1997: 1992: 1989: 1986: 1982: 1961: 1941: 1921: 1899: 1895: 1872: 1868: 1847: 1844: 1841: 1838: 1835: 1813: 1809: 1788: 1783: 1779: 1775: 1772: 1769: 1764: 1760: 1756: 1753: 1750: 1726: 1723: 1720: 1717: 1693: 1690: 1687: 1684: 1664: 1661: 1658: 1636: 1631: 1628: 1606: 1602: 1598: 1595: 1575: 1572: 1552: 1532: 1529: 1526: 1523: 1520: 1517: 1494: 1491: 1471: 1468: 1465: 1445: 1425: 1405: 1402: 1399: 1396: 1393: 1390: 1378: 1375: 1360: 1355: 1350: 1346: 1323: 1319: 1298: 1295: 1292: 1287: 1283: 1278: 1274: 1271: 1268: 1265: 1262: 1259: 1237: 1234: 1231: 1228: 1225: 1222: 1219: 1216: 1213: 1208: 1204: 1200: 1197: 1194: 1191: 1188: 1185: 1163: 1143: 1123: 1103: 1100: 1097: 1094: 1091: 1086: 1082: 1078: 1075: 1070: 1033: 1009: 1004: 1000: 996: 993: 988: 984: 963: 938: 935: 932: 927: 923: 917: 914: 911: 908: 902: 899: 877: 857: 837: 832: 828: 824: 821: 816: 812: 799: 796: 783: 759: 756: 753: 749: 745: 723: 719: 709:which rejects 696: 671: 667: 663: 641: 632: 629: 626: 622: 614: 611: 608: 605: 601: 597: 594: 591: 588: 584: 578: 575: 570: 567: 563: 559: 535: 531: 527: 524: 504: 501: 498: 495: 492: 472: 460: 457: 455: 452: 439:is called the 428: 405: 402: 399: 396: 393: 388: 382: 355: 351: 347: 344: 324: 321: 318: 315: 312: 309: 274: 246: 226: 204: 200: 179: 174: 170: 166: 163: 160: 155: 151: 147: 144: 141: 121: 99: 95: 79: 76: 21:Expected value 15: 9: 6: 4: 3: 2: 7875: 7864: 7861: 7859: 7856: 7854: 7851: 7850: 7848: 7834: 7830: 7826: 7822: 7817: 7812: 7809:(6): 062118. 7808: 7804: 7800: 7793: 7785: 7781: 7776: 7771: 7767: 7763: 7758: 7753: 7749: 7745: 7741: 7734: 7732: 7723: 7719: 7715: 7711: 7706: 7701: 7697: 7693: 7689: 7682: 7680: 7678: 7669: 7665: 7661: 7657: 7653: 7649: 7645: 7638: 7636: 7627: 7623: 7619: 7615: 7610: 7605: 7601: 7597: 7593: 7586: 7584: 7575: 7571: 7567: 7563: 7558: 7553: 7549: 7545: 7541: 7534: 7526: 7522: 7518: 7514: 7510: 7506: 7502: 7495: 7487: 7481: 7477: 7473: 7469: 7465: 7458: 7450: 7449: 7441: 7433: 7429: 7425: 7421: 7416: 7411: 7406: 7401: 7397: 7393: 7389: 7382: 7380: 7371: 7367: 7363: 7359: 7355: 7351: 7344: 7336: 7332: 7325: 7323: 7321: 7319: 7317: 7315: 7313: 7304: 7300: 7296: 7288: 7280: 7276: 7272: 7268: 7263: 7258: 7254: 7250: 7246: 7239: 7237: 7228: 7224: 7220: 7216: 7212: 7208: 7204: 7197: 7195: 7186: 7182: 7178: 7174: 7169: 7164: 7160: 7156: 7152: 7145: 7143: 7141: 7139: 7137: 7135: 7133: 7131: 7129: 7127: 7125: 7116: 7112: 7108: 7104: 7099: 7094: 7090: 7086: 7082: 7075: 7071: 7063: 7060: 7056: 7052: 7042: 7028: 7025: 7020: 7016: 7012: 7007: 7003: 6982: 6979: 6976: 6973: 6970: 6961: 6945: 6942: 6939: 6935: 6923: 6920: 6914: 6911: 6889: 6886: 6883: 6879: 6858: 6836: 6832: 6828: 6825: 6820: 6816: 6812: 6807: 6803: 6799: 6794: 6790: 6769: 6766: 6761: 6757: 6753: 6748: 6744: 6734: 6721: 6718: 6710: 6707: 6704: 6700: 6696: 6693: 6690: 6685: 6681: 6670: 6666: 6657: 6645: 6640: 6636: 6632: 6629: 6620: 6604: 6600: 6577: 6573: 6558: 6556: 6551: 6537: 6529: 6525: 6509: 6505: 6501: 6498: 6493: 6489: 6468: 6448: 6440: 6426: 6404: 6401: 6398: 6378: 6369: 6355: 6352: 6344: 6340: 6331: 6319: 6314: 6310: 6306: 6303: 6281: 6277: 6273: 6270: 6263: 6262:stopping time 6259: 6243: 6240: 6235: 6231: 6227: 6222: 6218: 6192: 6188: 6184: 6181: 6178: 6173: 6169: 6143: 6139: 6135: 6132: 6112: 6109: 6104: 6100: 6096: 6091: 6087: 6078: 6062: 6059: 6054: 6050: 6046: 6041: 6037: 6017: 6001: 5997: 5969: 5965: 5961: 5958: 5955: 5946: 5940: 5934: 5927: 5926: 5925: 5903: 5895: 5892: 5889: 5886: 5880: 5875: 5872: 5869: 5866: 5863: 5860: 5857: 5854: 5848: 5845: 5842: 5837: 5834: 5831: 5827: 5823: 5818: 5813: 5809: 5801: 5800: 5799: 5785: 5763: 5760: 5757: 5753: 5749: 5746: 5740: 5732: 5728: 5704: 5701: 5698: 5695: 5692: 5689: 5684: 5680: 5667: 5653: 5650: 5647: 5627: 5607: 5599: 5577: 5574: 5562: 5559: 5556: 5550: 5547: 5539: 5529: 5525: 5510: 5507: 5504: 5501: 5493: 5492:nonparametric 5488: 5486: 5482: 5476: 5462: 5442: 5432: 5430: 5425: 5404: 5400: 5389: 5385: 5381: 5372: 5365: 5354: 5350: 5339: 5336: 5333: 5329: 5325: 5319: 5316: 5309: 5303: 5298: 5295: 5292: 5288: 5276: 5260: 5250: 5222: 5219: 5207: 5181: 5171: 5143: 5140: 5128: 5116: 5106: 5104: 5099: 5080: 5077: 5074: 5070: 5066: 5061: 5057: 5046: 5043: 5040: 5036: 5032: 5026: 5023: 5016: 5010: 5005: 5002: 4999: 4995: 4991: 4983: 4979: 4968: 4965: 4953: 4942:by setting 4927: 4923: 4898: 4895: 4883: 4857: 4853: 4849: 4844: 4840: 4836: 4830: 4827: 4816: 4812: 4796: 4793: 4790: 4765: 4761: 4757: 4754: 4751: 4746: 4742: 4735: 4730: 4726: 4703: 4695: 4692: 4670: 4666: 4662: 4656: 4653: 4630: 4627: 4622: 4618: 4614: 4609: 4605: 4579: 4575: 4571: 4568: 4565: 4560: 4556: 4549: 4546: 4537: 4520: 4514: 4510: 4503: 4495: 4485: 4472: 4456: 4450: 4447: 4441: 4433: 4429: 4421: 4412: 4408: 4402: 4394: 4384: 4372: 4356: 4331: 4323: 4319: 4315: 4311: 4307: 4289: 4285: 4262: 4258: 4254: 4249: 4245: 4219: 4211: 4208: 4205: 4200: 4196: 4189: 4184: 4180: 4156: 4150: 4145: 4141: 4126: 4124: 4108: 4088: 4085: 4076: 4065: 4060: 4046: 4036: 4028: 4025: 4016: 4008: 3998: 3992: 3986: 3982: 3972: 3966: 3959: 3955: 3951: 3948: 3935: 3929: 3923: 3920: 3912: 3904: 3887: 3881: 3878: 3872: 3864: 3860: 3852: 3843: 3839: 3833: 3825: 3822: 3818: 3795: 3770: 3762: 3744: 3741: 3737: 3714: 3710: 3701: 3685: 3677: 3676: 3657: 3654: 3650: 3640: 3621: 3613: 3610: 3606: 3597: 3591: 3585: 3582: 3574: 3557: 3553: 3549: 3544: 3540: 3514: 3506: 3503: 3500: 3495: 3491: 3484: 3479: 3475: 3451: 3445: 3440: 3436: 3421: 3404: 3396: 3392: 3387: 3380: 3374: 3371: 3368: 3345: 3339: 3334: 3330: 3304: 3300: 3293: 3288: 3284: 3269: 3252: 3249: 3246: 3238: 3209: 3186: 3180: 3175: 3171: 3162: 3158: 3154: 3150: 3132: 3128: 3118: 3116: 3115: 3109: 3104: 3088: 3085: 3082: 3068: 3049: 3046: 3043: 3036: 3010: 3003: 2982: 2962: 2942: 2938: 2934: 2926: 2910: 2902: 2881: 2874: 2851: 2847: 2824: 2820: 2810: 2808: 2804: 2788: 2785: 2777: 2770: 2766: 2758: 2751: 2741: 2739: 2723: 2703: 2699: 2695: 2675: 2655: 2651: 2647: 2639: 2623: 2620: 2617: 2614: 2611: 2602: 2586: 2583: 2575: 2568: 2564: 2556: 2549: 2528: 2525: 2517: 2510: 2506: 2498: 2491: 2481: 2479: 2475: 2474:meta-analysis 2464: 2462: 2443: 2440: 2437: 2433: 2407: 2404: 2401: 2397: 2393: 2390: 2387: 2382: 2378: 2371: 2366: 2363: 2360: 2356: 2334: 2311: 2308: 2305: 2301: 2289: 2286: 2274: 2256: 2253: 2250: 2246: 2234: 2231: 2225: 2222: 2218: 2212: 2207: 2204: 2201: 2197: 2193: 2190: 2182: 2168: 2146: 2143: 2140: 2136: 2115: 2092: 2088: 2084: 2081: 2075: 2072: 2069: 2062: 2058: 2055: 2049: 2046: 2023: 2020: 2015: 2011: 2004: 2001: 1998: 1995: 1990: 1987: 1984: 1980: 1959: 1939: 1919: 1897: 1893: 1870: 1866: 1842: 1839: 1836: 1811: 1807: 1781: 1777: 1773: 1770: 1767: 1762: 1758: 1751: 1748: 1740: 1739:nonparametric 1724: 1721: 1718: 1715: 1707: 1691: 1688: 1685: 1682: 1662: 1659: 1656: 1629: 1626: 1604: 1600: 1596: 1593: 1573: 1570: 1550: 1530: 1527: 1524: 1521: 1518: 1515: 1506: 1492: 1489: 1469: 1466: 1463: 1443: 1423: 1400: 1394: 1391: 1388: 1374: 1353: 1348: 1344: 1321: 1317: 1293: 1285: 1281: 1276: 1269: 1263: 1260: 1257: 1248: 1235: 1232: 1226: 1220: 1214: 1206: 1202: 1198: 1195: 1189: 1183: 1175: 1161: 1121: 1095: 1092: 1089: 1084: 1080: 1073: 1058: 1054: 1050: 1045: 1031: 1024:distribution 1023: 1002: 998: 991: 986: 982: 961: 952: 933: 925: 921: 912: 906: 900: 897: 889: 875: 855: 830: 826: 819: 814: 810: 795: 781: 773: 757: 754: 751: 747: 743: 721: 717: 708: 694: 687: 669: 665: 661: 652: 639: 627: 620: 609: 606: 603: 599: 595: 589: 586: 582: 576: 573: 568: 565: 561: 557: 549: 533: 529: 525: 522: 502: 499: 496: 493: 490: 470: 451: 449: 445: 442: 426: 417: 403: 400: 394: 386: 369: 353: 349: 345: 342: 319: 313: 310: 307: 299: 295: 291: 286: 272: 264: 260: 244: 224: 202: 198: 172: 168: 164: 161: 158: 153: 149: 142: 139: 119: 97: 93: 85: 75: 73: 69: 68:Bayes factors 65: 59: 57: 53: 49: 43: 41: 37: 33: 29: 22: 7806: 7802: 7792: 7750:(1): 66–68. 7747: 7743: 7695: 7691: 7651: 7647: 7599: 7595: 7547: 7543: 7533: 7508: 7504: 7494: 7467: 7457: 7447: 7440: 7395: 7391: 7353: 7343: 7334: 7287: 7252: 7248: 7210: 7206: 7158: 7154: 7088: 7084: 7074: 7055:Leonid Levin 7048: 6962: 6735: 6621: 6564: 6561:Construction 6552: 6418: 6370: 6257: 6028: 5988: 5923: 5668: 5537: 5535: 5526: 5491: 5489: 5484: 5481:an R package 5477: 5433: 5426: 5277: 5114: 5112: 5102: 5100: 4538: 4473: 4373: 4314:Philip Dawid 4309: 4305: 4304:): Robbins' 4132: 4122: 4061: 3913: 3910: 3674: 3641: 3575: 3427: 3275: 3160: 3156: 3152: 3119: 3112: 3107: 3102: 3074: 3067:and so on). 3028:to the next 2924: 2900: 2811: 2742: 2737: 2637: 2600: 2482: 2477: 2470: 2275: 2183: 1507: 1380: 1249: 1176: 1056: 1053:Bayes factor 1051:and (b) the 1046: 1021: 953: 890: 801: 772:Type-I error 683: 653: 550: 462: 447: 443: 440: 418: 370: 297: 293: 289: 287: 262: 258: 81: 60: 51: 44: 31: 25: 6481:such that 6260:if for any 6020:E-Processes 3810:such that 3700:convex hull 3157:log-optimal 1586:under all 774:bounded by 654:In words: 298:nonnegative 294:e-statistic 7847:Categories 7705:1912.06116 7557:1610.02351 7405:1912.11436 7262:2010.09686 7168:2210.01948 7098:2009.02824 7066:References 6528:filtration 6417:", or the 6025:Definition 5115:parametric 3075:If we set 2601:definition 2128:for which 2039:, for any 1932:with mean 1706:parametric 888:, and let 290:e-variable 190:with each 132:. Usually 7833:1050-2947 7816:1108.2468 7766:0027-8424 7722:0090-5364 7668:0035-9246 7626:0883-4237 7609:0912.4269 7574:1369-7412 7525:0018-9448 7424:0027-8424 7370:1556-5068 7279:1369-7412 7227:0964-1998 7185:0883-4237 7115:1369-7412 7029:… 6983:… 6943:− 6924:˘ 6921:λ 6912:λ 6890:λ 6859:λ 6829:× 6826:⋯ 6813:× 6770:… 6719:≤ 6708:− 6694:… 6633:∈ 6538:α 6510:α 6499:≥ 6449:α 6427:α 6353:≤ 6345:τ 6307:∈ 6282:τ 6271:τ 6258:e-process 6244:… 6182:… 6113:… 6063:… 5893:⁡ 5887:− 5873:⁡ 5858:− 5846:κ 5835:− 5832:κ 5824:κ 5810:∫ 5786:κ 5761:− 5758:κ 5750:κ 5733:κ 5699:κ 5685:κ 5651:≥ 5581:∞ 5569:→ 5508:λ 5463:τ 5382:∣ 5376:^ 5373:θ 5337:− 5326:∣ 5320:˘ 5317:θ 5289:∏ 5254:¯ 5223:˘ 5220:θ 5211:¯ 5175:¯ 5144:˘ 5141:θ 5132:¯ 5078:− 5067:∣ 5044:− 5033:∣ 5027:˘ 5024:θ 4996:∏ 4969:˘ 4966:θ 4957:¯ 4899:˘ 4896:θ 4887:¯ 4854:θ 4837:∣ 4831:˘ 4828:θ 4794:≥ 4755:… 4700:Θ 4696:∈ 4693:θ 4663:∣ 4657:˘ 4654:θ 4631:… 4569:… 4489:¯ 4457:θ 4434:θ 4418:Θ 4413:∫ 4388:¯ 4353:Θ 4255:∪ 4216:Θ 4212:∈ 4209:θ 4201:θ 4133:Now let 4086:∣ 4080:^ 4077:θ 4026:∣ 4020:^ 4017:θ 3952:∈ 3888:θ 3865:θ 3849:Θ 3844:∫ 3823:↶ 3792:Θ 3742:↶ 3698:unto the 3655:↶ 3611:↶ 3550:∪ 3511:Θ 3507:∈ 3504:θ 3496:θ 3250:⁡ 2943:α 2789:… 2724:α 2704:α 2676:α 2656:α 2618:α 2587:… 2529:… 2444:λ 2405:− 2391:… 2364:− 2335:λ 2309:− 2290:˘ 2287:λ 2254:− 2235:˘ 2232:λ 2198:∏ 2147:λ 2116:λ 2093:μ 2076:μ 2073:− 2056:− 2050:∈ 2047:λ 2024:μ 2021:− 2005:λ 1991:λ 1940:μ 1799:with the 1771:… 1722:λ 1689:λ 1660:≥ 1630:∈ 1627:λ 1597:∈ 1571:≤ 1528:λ 1490:≤ 1467:− 1250:and then 1236:θ 1227:θ 1207:θ 1199:∫ 1142:Θ 1099:Θ 1096:∈ 1093:θ 1085:θ 782:α 758:α 755:≤ 695:α 640:α 628:∗ 621:≤ 610:α 607:≤ 577:α 569:≥ 526:∈ 500:≤ 497:α 401:≤ 346:∈ 225:τ 173:τ 162:… 52:e-process 7784:16578652 7432:32631986 7255:: 1–27. 6622:for all 5103:learning 4371:and set 4308:and the 770:, has 515:and all 483:and any 82:Let the 40:p-values 32:e-values 7059:V. Vovk 7045:History 5598:p-value 4597:where 3672:is the 3153:e-power 3103:trivial 2925:outcome 1543:where 1377:As bets 448:e-value 441:e-value 7831:  7782:  7775:335597 7772:  7764:  7720:  7666:  7624:  7572:  7523:  7482:  7430:  7422:  7368:  7295:trials 7277:  7225:  7183:  7113:  6419:level- 6079:. Let 3642:where 2276:where 1885:, the 637:  616:  259:sample 7811:arXiv 7700:arXiv 7698:(3). 7604:arXiv 7602:(1). 7552:arXiv 7400:arXiv 7257:arXiv 7163:arXiv 7161:(4). 7093:arXiv 6782:with 5720:with 5239:or 3428:Let 1619:and 296:is a 7829:ISSN 7780:PMID 7762:ISSN 7718:ISSN 7664:ISSN 7622:ISSN 7570:ISSN 7521:ISSN 7480:ISBN 7428:PMID 7420:ISSN 7366:ISSN 7275:ISSN 7223:ISSN 7181:ISSN 7111:ISSN 6592:for 5702:< 5696:< 4915:for 4783:for 3783:on 3702:of 3678:of 3322:and 3276:Let 2805:and 2638:ever 2621:< 2615:< 1336:vs. 1022:some 802:Let 494:< 7821:doi 7770:PMC 7752:doi 7710:doi 7656:doi 7614:doi 7562:doi 7513:doi 7472:doi 7410:doi 7396:117 7358:doi 7299:doi 7267:doi 7215:doi 7211:184 7173:doi 7103:doi 6405:100 6256:an 5950:min 5890:log 5870:log 5640:if 5490:In 5160:or 5113:In 4344:on 4322:MDL 4066:) 3945:sup 3247:log 3159:or 1057:are 736:if 292:or 288:An 261:or 26:In 7849:: 7827:. 7819:. 7807:84 7805:. 7801:. 7778:. 7768:. 7760:. 7748:58 7746:. 7742:. 7730:^ 7716:. 7708:. 7696:49 7694:. 7690:. 7676:^ 7662:. 7652:55 7650:. 7646:. 7634:^ 7620:. 7612:. 7600:26 7598:. 7594:. 7582:^ 7568:. 7560:. 7548:80 7546:. 7542:. 7519:. 7509:30 7507:. 7503:. 7478:. 7470:. 7466:. 7426:. 7418:. 7408:. 7394:. 7390:. 7378:^ 7364:. 7356:. 7352:. 7333:. 7311:^ 7273:. 7265:. 7253:86 7251:. 7247:. 7235:^ 7221:. 7209:. 7205:. 7193:^ 7179:. 7171:. 7159:38 7157:. 7153:. 7123:^ 7109:. 7101:. 7089:84 7087:. 7083:. 6368:. 6016:. 5947::= 5798:: 5747::= 5431:. 5098:. 4850::= 4536:. 4409::= 3903:. 3586::= 3108:if 3086::= 2809:. 2740:. 2463:. 2273:, 2194::= 1996::= 1519::= 1354::= 901::= 416:. 58:. 30:, 7835:. 7823:: 7813:: 7786:. 7754:: 7724:. 7712:: 7702:: 7670:. 7658:: 7628:. 7616:: 7606:: 7576:. 7564:: 7554:: 7527:. 7515:: 7488:. 7474:: 7434:. 7412:: 7402:: 7372:. 7360:: 7337:. 7305:. 7301:: 7281:. 7269:: 7259:: 7229:. 7217:: 7187:. 7175:: 7165:: 7117:. 7105:: 7095:: 7026:, 7021:2 7017:E 7013:, 7008:1 7004:E 6980:, 6977:2 6974:, 6971:1 6946:1 6940:i 6936:X 6931:| 6915:= 6887:, 6884:i 6880:E 6837:n 6833:E 6821:2 6817:E 6808:1 6804:E 6800:= 6795:n 6791:M 6767:, 6762:2 6758:M 6754:, 6749:1 6745:M 6722:1 6716:] 6711:1 6705:i 6701:X 6697:, 6691:, 6686:1 6682:X 6677:| 6671:i 6667:E 6663:[ 6658:P 6652:E 6646:: 6641:0 6637:H 6630:P 6605:i 6601:X 6578:i 6574:S 6506:/ 6502:1 6494:n 6490:E 6469:n 6402:= 6399:n 6379:n 6356:1 6350:] 6341:E 6337:[ 6332:P 6326:E 6320:: 6315:0 6311:H 6304:P 6278:E 6274:, 6241:, 6236:2 6232:E 6228:, 6223:1 6219:E 6198:) 6193:n 6189:X 6185:, 6179:, 6174:1 6170:X 6166:( 6144:n 6140:E 6136:, 6133:n 6110:, 6105:2 6101:E 6097:, 6092:1 6088:E 6060:, 6055:2 6051:X 6047:, 6042:1 6038:X 6002:1 5998:H 5985:. 5973:) 5970:t 5966:/ 5962:1 5959:, 5956:1 5953:( 5944:) 5941:t 5938:( 5935:f 5904:2 5900:) 5896:p 5884:( 5881:p 5876:p 5867:p 5864:+ 5861:p 5855:1 5849:= 5843:d 5838:1 5828:p 5819:1 5814:0 5764:1 5754:p 5744:) 5741:p 5738:( 5729:f 5708:} 5705:1 5693:0 5690:: 5681:f 5677:{ 5654:g 5648:f 5628:g 5608:f 5584:] 5578:, 5575:0 5572:[ 5566:] 5563:1 5560:, 5557:0 5554:[ 5551:: 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Index

Expected value
statistical hypothesis testing
null hypothesis
p-values
Type-I error control
multiple testing
likelihood ratios
Bayes factors
supermartingales
null hypothesis
significance level
Type-I error
standard, classical likelihood ratio test
Bayes factor
parametric
nonparametric
Chernoff, Hoeffding and Bernstein bounds
meta-analysis
Doob's optional stopping theorem
Ville's inequality
statistical power
Kelly criterion
Reverse Information Projection (RIPr)
convex hull
marginal density
maximum likelihood estimator
Philip Dawid
Jorma Rissanen
MDL
maximum likelihood

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