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Balance sheet recession

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systemic financial crisis. The supply of credit to the private sector will halt. Borrowing will shrink. Investment, particularly in new housing, will collapse. The desired savings of the heavily indebted will rise, as they seek to pay down excessive debt. Creditors, too, will become far more cautious, as they recognise how vulnerable they have become to a wave of bankruptcy among their debtors. The overall effect will be big cutbacks in spending and a deep recession, if not worse. A big financial crisis will accelerate the cuts and turn the recession into a potential depression. That is, of course, what happened in 2008. The effects of the emergence of balance-sheet constraints on spending and borrowing will, in brief, be revealed in the huge financial surpluses in the private sectors of crisis-hit economies."
1030:, meaning their assets were worth less than their liabilities. Despite zero interest rates and expansion of the money supply to encourage borrowing, Japanese corporations in aggregate opted to pay down their debts from their own business earnings rather than borrow to invest as firms typically do. Corporate investment, a key demand component of GDP, fell enormously (22% of GDP) between 1990 and its peak decline in 2003. Japanese firms overall became net savers after 1998, as opposed to borrowers. Koo argues that it was massive fiscal stimulus (borrowing and spending by the government) that offset this decline and enabled Japan to maintain its level of GDP. In his view, this avoided a U.S. type 1051: 1139:
recession can’t be cured simply by restoring confidence: no matter how confident they may be feeling, debtors can’t spend more if their creditors insist they cut back. So offsetting the economic downdraft from a debt overhang requires concrete action, which can in general take two forms: fiscal stimulus and debt relief. That is, the government can step in to spend because the private sector can’t, and it can also reduce private debts to allow the debtors to spend again. Unfortunately, we did too little of the first and almost none of the second."
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suddenly realize that these high debt levels are risky. At that point, debtors will face strong pressures from their creditors to “deleverage,” slashing their spending in an effort to pay down debt. But when many people slash spending at the same time, the result will be a depressed economy. This can turn into a self-reinforcing spiral, as falling incomes make debt seem even less supportable, leading to deeper cuts; but in any case, the overhang of debt can keep the economy depressed for a long time."
1101:, as the value of their primary asset (homes) fell, mortgage debt initially remained fixed, so equity also fell, causing the ratio of debt to equity (a measure of leverage) to rise. This sudden increase in leverage, causing consumers to shift from spending to paying down debt, can account for a significant decline in employment levels, as employers cut back due to concerns of lower consumer demand. Policies that help reduce mortgage debt or household leverage could therefore have stimulative effects. 40: 867: 1078:(gross private savings minus gross private domestic investment) from an approximately $ 200 billion deficit in Q4 2007 to a surplus of $ 1.4 trillion by Q3 2009. This surplus remained elevated at $ 720 billion (~$ 913 billion in 2023) in Q1 2014. This illustrates the core issue in a balance sheet recession, that an enormous amount of savings was tied up in the banking system, rather than being invested. 855: 1034:, in which U.S. GDP fell by 46%. He argued that monetary policy (e.g., central banks lowering key interest rates) was ineffective because there was limited demand for funds while firms paid down their liabilities, even at near-zero interest rates. In a balance sheet recession, GDP declines by the amount of debt repayment and un-borrowed individual savings, leaving government stimulus spending as the primary remedy. 1147:
tend to spend more rather than save if they believe inflation is on the horizon. In more technical terms, Krugman argues that the private sector savings curve is elastic even during a balance sheet recession (responsive to changes in real interest rates) disagreeing with Koo's view that it is inelastic (non-responsive to changes in real interest rates).
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that holds that assets must always equal the sum of liabilities plus equity. If asset prices fall below the value of the debt incurred to purchase them, then the equity must be negative, meaning the consumer or business is insolvent. Until it regains solvency, the entity will focus on debt repayment.
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driven by the high levels of private sector debt (i.e., the credit cycle) rather than fluctuations in the business cycle. It is characterized by a change in private sector behavior towards saving (i.e., paying down debt) rather than spending, which slows the economy through a reduction in consumption
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wrote in 2012 that the financial crisis in the U.S. was a balance sheet recession: "The overall story, then, is of an economy driven not by fiscal policy decisions, but by private sector decisions taken for reasons that have nothing to do with the long-run fiscal prospects of the economy. Meanwhile,
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U.S. household debt rose from approximately 65% GDP in Q1 2000 to 95% by Q1 2008. This was driven by a housing bubble, which encouraged Americans to take on larger mortgages and use home equity lines of credit to fuel consumption. Mortgage debt rose from $ 4.9 trillion in Q1 2000 to a peak of $
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objective to debt minimization until they are solvent (i.e., equity is positive). This may take a long time; when the bubble burst in 1990, corporate demand for funds immediately collapsed, and by 1995, the demand was negative, meaning that Japanese companies were making net pay downs of their debt.
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when faced with a balance sheet recession would be appropriate. However, Krugman argued that monetary policy could also affect savings behavior, as inflation or credible promises of future inflation (generating negative real interest rates) would encourage less savings. In other words, people would
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wrote in July 2012: "Now consider what happens when the asset prices start to fall. Debtors will be unambiguously poorer. Creditors will also feel poorer, since their assets will have deteriorated in quality. Financial intermediaries will become both insolvent and illiquid. There is likely to be a
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Responses to recessions typically include fiscal stimulus through higher government deficits and monetary stimulus, such as lower interest rates and monetary creation. However, the solvency (net worth) of economic actors is a third important element when dealing with a balance sheet recession, as
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In Krugman's view, balance sheet recessions require private sector debt reduction strategies (e.g., mortgage refinancing) combined with higher government spending to offset declines from the private sector as it pays down its debt, writing in July 2014: "Unlike a financial panic, a balance sheet
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wrote in July 2014: "The logic of a balance sheet recession is straightforward. Imagine that for whatever reason people have grown careless about both borrowing and lending, so that many families and/or firms have taken on high levels of debt. And suppose that at some point people more or less
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The decline in housing prices also caused U.S. household equity to plummet, from a peak of $ 13.4 trillion in Q1 2006 to $ 6.1 trillion by Q1 2009, a 54% decline. Household equity began to rise after Q4 2011 and was back to $ 10.8 trillion by Q1 2014, approximately 80% of its
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High levels of indebtedness or the bursting of a real estate or financial asset price bubble can cause a balance sheet recession. This is when large numbers of consumers or corporations pay down debt (i.e., save) rather than spend or invest, which slows the economy. Economist
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wrote in 2009 that under ideal conditions, a country's economy should have the household sector as net savers and the corporate sector as net borrowers, with the government budget nearly balanced and net exports near zero. When imbalances develop across these
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Rather than savings by households being invested by businesses, as is the case under typical economic conditions, the savings remains in the banking system and will not be invested by businesses regardless of the interest rate. A large
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For example, economist Richard Koo wrote that Japan's "Great Recession" that began in 1990 was a "balance sheet recession". It was triggered by a collapse in land and stock prices, which caused Japanese firms to have
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While U.S. savings rose significantly during the 2007–2009 recession, both residential and non-residential investment fell significantly, approximately $ 560 billion between Q1 2008 and Q4 2009. This moved the
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When housing prices fall, poorer homeowners (with a larger proportion of their net worth in their home) are hit the hardest financially and reduce their consumption relatively more than wealthier households.
990:, recession can develop within the country or create pressure for recession in another country. Policy responses are often designed to drive the economy back towards this ideal state of balance. 1109:
the government, as a whole, was driven into huge deficit by these private sector decisions. That is exactly what one expects to happen in a huge balance-sheet recession, such as this one."
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Declines in residential investment preceded the recession and were followed by reductions in household spending and then non-residential business investment as the recession worsened.
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that occurs when high levels of private sector debt cause individuals or companies to collectively focus on saving by paying down debt rather than spending or investing, causing
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levels. Both durable and non-durable goods consumption declined as households moved from low to high leverage with the decline in property values experienced during the
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Olsen, Andreas Hardhaug. "Wilhelm Röpke and Richard C. Koo On Secondary Deflations and Balance Sheet Recessions." Economic Affairs 35.2 (2015): 215-224.
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U.S. savings and investment; savings greater than investment indicates a large private sector financial surplus, indicative of a balance sheet recession
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U.S. household spending declines were largest in geographic areas with a combination of higher household debt and larger housing price declines.
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Krugman discussed the balance sheet recession concept during 2010, agreeing with Koo's situation assessment and view that sustained
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10.7 trillion by Q2 2008. However, it has fallen since as households deleverage, to $ 9.3 trillion by Q1 2014.
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was only one manifestation of a broader problem of excessive debt--that it was a so-called "balance sheet recession".
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A July 2012 survey of balance sheet recession research reported that consumer demand and employment are affected by
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It has been argued that a balance sheet recession essentially is the same phenomenon that the German economist
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Historically, severe economic downturns are almost always preceded by a sharp increase in household debt.
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The demand remained negative for 10 years, until 2005. This happened despite near zero interest rates.
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either asset price declines must be reversed or debt levels reduced, or combination of both.
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pre-crisis peak level. Such a decline in equity shifts household behavior towards
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FRED Database-Residential and Non-Residential Investment-Retrieved July 2014
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The Holy Grail of Macroeconomics-Lessons from Japan's Great Recession
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wrote in 2014 that "the best working hypothesis seems to be that the
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FRED Database-Private Sector Financial Surplus-Retrieved July 2014
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FRED Database-Home Mortgage Liability Levels-Retrieved July 2014
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FRED Database-Household Owner's Equity-Retrieved July 2014
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economists in the 1930s denoted as a secondary deflation.
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to slow or decline. The term is attributed to economist
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Economists Atif Mian and Amir Sufi wrote in 2014 that:
955:by households or investment by business. The term 950:A balance sheet recession is a particular type of 1453: 2477: 1355:FRED Database-Household Debt-Retrieved July 2014 1037:Koo wrote in 2010 that firms may switch from a 1459: 1542: 1313: 1272: 1270: 1268: 1181: 1179: 891: 1517:"Debt, deleveraging, and the liquidity trap" 1486:: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list ( 1439: 1253:, issue no. 58, 12 December 2011, pp. 19–37 1549: 1535: 1265: 1237: 1235: 1209: 1207: 1176: 1045: 898: 884: 1218:. John Wiley & Sons (Asia) Pte. Ltd. 1241: 1049: 1514: 1276: 1232: 1204: 2478: 1015: 1530: 1188:Richard Koo-A Balance Sheet Recession 1165:the phenomena on an individual scale 1515:Krugman, Paul (November 18, 2010). 1460:Mian, Atif and, Sufi, Amir (2014). 1213: 1097:. In other words, according to the 13: 1853:British credit crisis of 1772–1773 1129: 1020: 14: 2512: 1566:Commonwealth of Nations countries 1303:. Financial Times. July 25, 2012. 1159:also refer to as long wave cycle 1076:private sector financial balance 996:private sector financial surplus 865: 853: 38: 1562:recessions in the United States 1508: 1494: 1449:Financial Times. July 19, 2012. 1417: 1403: 1392: 1381: 1370: 1359: 1314:Gregory White (14 April 2010). 1277:Krugman, Paul (July 10, 2014). 930:concept described by economist 140:Concepts, theory and techniques 1348: 1330: 1307: 1289: 1195: 1: 1169: 945: 2496:United States housing bubble 1285:– via www.nybooks.com. 1283:The New York Review of Books 7: 2308:1997 Asian financial crisis 1941:Civil War-era United States 1251:real-world economics review 1150: 938:that began in 1990 and the 10: 2517: 2084:Post–World War I recession 1904:Post-Napoleonic Depression 1411:"Grim Natural Experiments" 934:. Recent examples include 16:Type of economic recession 2322: 2258: 2203: 2157: 2072: 1994:2nd Industrial Revolution 1987: 1934: 1927:(1836–1838 and 1839–1843) 1843:1st Industrial Revolution 1841: 1810: 1611:Price-and-wage stickiness 1572: 1466:. University of Chicago. 975: 2275:1990s United States boom 2063:Financial crisis of 1914 1502:"Notes On Koo (Wonkish)" 1279:"Does He Pass the Test?" 1095:subprime mortgage crisis 128:JEL classification codes 2090:Depression of 1920–1921 2022:Depression of 1882–1885 1936:Early Victorian Britain 1671:Real and nominal values 1338:"Browse the Collection" 1046:United States 2007–2009 912:balance sheet recession 314:Industrial organization 171:Computational economics 2195:Recession of 1969–1970 2190:Recession of 1960–1961 2149:Recession of 1937–1938 1055: 926:and is related to the 166:Experimental economics 2313:Early 2000s recession 2280:Early 1990s recession 2232:Early 1980s recession 1812:Commercial revolution 1710:Nominal interest rate 1318:. 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Koo 977: 974: 947: 944: 942:of 2007-2009. 940:U.S. recession 928:debt deflation 906: 905: 903: 902: 895: 888: 880: 877: 876: 875: 874: 862: 847: 846: 843: 842: 837: 827: 822: 816: 811: 810: 807: 806: 801: 800: 793: 788: 783: 778: 773: 768: 763: 758: 753: 748: 743: 738: 733: 728: 723: 718: 713: 708: 703: 698: 693: 688: 683: 678: 673: 668: 663: 658: 653: 648: 643: 638: 633: 628: 623: 618: 613: 608: 603: 598: 593: 588: 583: 578: 573: 568: 563: 558: 553: 548: 543: 538: 533: 528: 523: 518: 513: 508: 503: 498: 493: 488: 483: 478: 473: 468: 463: 457: 456: 455: 449: 448: 445: 444: 441: 440: 435: 430: 425: 420: 415: 410: 405: 400: 395: 386: 381: 376: 371: 366: 361: 359:Organizational 356: 351: 346: 341: 336: 331: 326: 321: 316: 311: 306: 301: 296: 291: 286: 281: 276: 271: 266: 261: 256: 251: 246: 241: 236: 231: 226: 221: 216: 211: 205: 203:By application 202: 201: 198: 197: 194: 193: 188: 183: 178: 173: 168: 163: 158: 153: 148: 142: 139: 138: 135: 134: 131: 130: 125: 120: 115: 110: 105: 96: 91: 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1762: 1759: 1757: 1754: 1752: 1749: 1747: 1744: 1742: 1739: 1737: 1736:Balance sheet 1734: 1733: 1732: 1729: 1725: 1721: 1718: 1716: 1713: 1711: 1708: 1707: 1706: 1705:Interest rate 1703: 1699: 1696: 1694: 1691: 1689: 1686: 1685: 1684: 1681: 1677: 1674: 1672: 1669: 1667: 1664: 1662: 1659: 1657: 1653: 1650: 1648: 1645: 1643: 1640: 1638: 1635: 1634: 1633: 1629: 1626: 1624: 1621: 1617: 1614: 1612: 1609: 1607: 1604: 1602: 1599: 1597: 1594: 1592: 1589: 1587: 1584: 1583: 1582: 1578: 1575: 1574: 1571: 1567: 1563: 1559: 1552: 1547: 1545: 1540: 1538: 1533: 1532: 1529: 1518: 1511: 1503: 1497: 1489: 1483: 1475: 1469: 1465: 1464: 1463:House of Debt 1456: 1448: 1442: 1434: 1430: 1426: 1420: 1412: 1406: 1400: 1395: 1389: 1384: 1378: 1373: 1367: 1362: 1356: 1351: 1343: 1342:CFA Institute 1339: 1333: 1317: 1310: 1302: 1298: 1292: 1284: 1280: 1273: 1271: 1269: 1252: 1245: 1238: 1236: 1227: 1221: 1217: 1210: 1208: 1198: 1191:. 2010-06-08. 1190: 1189: 1182: 1180: 1175: 1164: 1163:Debt overhang 1161: 1158: 1155: 1154: 1148: 1145: 1140: 1136: 1124: 1121: 1118: 1115: 1114: 1113: 1110: 1107: 1102: 1100: 1096: 1092: 1087: 1085: 1079: 1077: 1071: 1067: 1065: 1061: 1052: 1043: 1040: 1035: 1033: 1029: 1013: 1010: 1006: 1003: 999: 997: 991: 989: 984: 973: 971: 967: 966:Wilhelm Röpke 962: 958: 957:balance sheet 953: 943: 941: 937: 933: 932:Irving Fisher 929: 925: 921: 917: 914:is a type of 913: 901: 896: 894: 889: 887: 882: 881: 879: 878: 873: 863: 861: 856: 851: 850: 849: 848: 841: 838: 835: 831: 828: 826: 823: 821: 818: 817: 814: 809: 808: 799: 798: 794: 792: 789: 787: 784: 782: 779: 777: 774: 772: 769: 767: 764: 762: 759: 757: 754: 752: 749: 747: 744: 742: 739: 737: 734: 732: 729: 727: 724: 722: 719: 717: 714: 712: 709: 707: 704: 702: 699: 697: 694: 692: 689: 687: 684: 682: 679: 677: 674: 672: 669: 667: 664: 662: 659: 657: 654: 652: 649: 647: 644: 642: 639: 637: 634: 632: 629: 627: 624: 622: 619: 617: 614: 612: 609: 607: 604: 602: 599: 597: 594: 592: 589: 587: 584: 582: 579: 577: 574: 572: 569: 567: 564: 562: 559: 557: 554: 552: 549: 547: 544: 542: 539: 537: 534: 532: 529: 527: 524: 522: 519: 517: 514: 512: 509: 507: 504: 502: 499: 497: 494: 492: 489: 487: 484: 482: 479: 477: 474: 472: 469: 467: 464: 462: 461:de Mandeville 459: 458: 453: 447: 446: 439: 436: 434: 431: 429: 426: 424: 421: 419: 416: 414: 411: 409: 406: 404: 401: 399: 396: 394: 390: 389:Public choice 387: 385: 382: 380: 377: 375: 372: 370: 367: 365: 364:Participation 362: 360: 357: 355: 352: 350: 347: 345: 342: 340: 337: 335: 332: 330: 327: 325: 324:Institutional 322: 320: 317: 315: 312: 310: 307: 305: 302: 300: 297: 295: 292: 290: 287: 285: 282: 280: 277: 275: 274:Expeditionary 272: 270: 267: 265: 264:Environmental 262: 260: 257: 255: 252: 250: 247: 245: 242: 240: 237: 235: 232: 230: 227: 225: 222: 220: 217: 215: 212: 210: 207: 206: 200: 199: 192: 189: 187: 184: 182: 179: 177: 174: 172: 169: 167: 164: 162: 159: 157: 154: 152: 149: 147: 144: 143: 137: 136: 129: 126: 124: 121: 119: 116: 114: 111: 109: 106: 104: 100: 97: 95: 94:International 92: 90: 87: 85: 82: 80: 77: 76: 73: 70:Branches and 67: 66: 61: 58: 56: 53: 51: 48: 47: 46: 45: 41: 37: 36: 33: 30: 29: 25: 21: 20: 2491:Unemployment 2375:South Africa 2132:South Africa 1978:Black Friday 1795:Unemployment 1735: 1652:Money supply 1647:Disinflation 1591:General glut 1510: 1496: 1462: 1455: 1441: 1433:the original 1428: 1419: 1405: 1394: 1383: 1372: 1361: 1350: 1341: 1332: 1320:. Retrieved 1309: 1300: 1291: 1282: 1255:. Retrieved 1215: 1197: 1187: 1141: 1137: 1133: 1111: 1103: 1088: 1084:deleveraging 1080: 1072: 1068: 1060:Paul Krugman 1057: 1036: 1024: 1007: 1002:Paul Krugman 1000: 992: 979: 949: 911: 909: 830:Publications 795: 418:Sociological 391: / 289:Geographical 269:Evolutionary 244:Digitization 209:Agricultural 113:Mathematical 84:Econometrics 2443:New Zealand 2401:2020–2022; 2365:New Zealand 2338:2007–2009; 2284:1990–1991; 2268:(1982–2007) 2236:1980–1982; 2208:(1973–1982) 2186:(1957–1958) 2180:(1953–1954) 2174:(1948–1949) 2162:(1945–1973) 2127:New Zealand 2110:1929–1939; 2086:(1918–1919) 2077:(1918–1939) 2059:(1910–1912) 2053:(1907–1908) 2047:(1902–1904) 2038:(1893–1897) 2032:(1890–1891) 2008:1873–1879; 1997:(1870–1914) 1980:(1869–1870) 1974:(1865–1867) 1965:(1857–1858) 1956:(1847–1848) 1944:(1840–1870) 1915:(1825–1826) 1906:(1815–1821) 1891:(1796–1799) 1885:(1789–1793) 1857:1772–1774; 1846:(1760–1840) 1824:(1430–1490) 1822:Great Slump 1815:(1000–1760) 1761:Stagflation 1720:Yield curve 1666:Price level 1106:Martin Wolf 1009:Martin Wolf 924:Richard Koo 666:von Neumann 319:Information 259:Engineering 239:Development 234:Demographic 176:Game theory 118:Methodology 2486:Recessions 2480:Categories 2408:Bangladesh 2345:Bangladesh 1989:Gilded Age 1741:Depression 1693:Stagnation 1322:29 January 1301:www.ft.com 1170:References 1104:Economist 1058:Economist 946:Definition 825:Economists 696:Schumacher 601:Schumpeter 571:von Wieser 491:von ThĂĽnen 452:economists 428:Statistics 423:Solidarity 344:Managerial 309:Humanistic 304:Historical 249:Ecological 214:Behavioral 108:Mainstream 2448:Singapore 2403:Australia 2380:Sri Lanka 2340:Australia 2286:Australia 2112:Australia 2102:1926–1927 2099:1923–1924 2065:(1913–14) 2041:1899–1900 1897:1807–1810 1894:1802–1804 1875:1785–1788 1800:Sahm rule 1731:Recession 1632:Inflation 1628:Deflation 1482:cite book 952:recession 741:Greenspan 706:Samuelson 686:Galbraith 656:Tinbergen 596:von Mises 591:Heckscher 551:Edgeworth 369:Personnel 329:Knowledge 294:Happiness 284:Financial 254:Education 229:Democracy 123:Political 89:Heterodox 32:Economics 2433:Malaysia 2418:Botswana 2370:Pakistan 2360:Malaysia 1864:Scotland 1724:Inverted 1688:Recovery 1257:15 April 1151:See also 834:journals 820:Glossary 771:Stiglitz 736:Rothbard 716:Buchanan 701:Friedman 691:Koopmans 681:Leontief 661:Robinson 546:Marshall 450:Notable 398:Regional 374:Planning 349:Monetary 279:Feminist 224:Cultural 219:Business 24:a series 22:Part of 2438:Namibia 2026:1887–88 1968:1860–61 1959:1853–54 1950:1845–46 1921:1833–34 1918:1828–29 1909:1822–23 1859:England 1751:Rolling 1637:Chronic 988:sectors 840:Schools 832: ( 791:Piketty 786:Krugman 651:Kuznets 641:Kalecki 616:Polanyi 506:Cournot 501:Bastiat 486:Ricardo 476:Malthus 466:Quesnay 438:Welfare 408:Service 79:Applied 55:Outline 50:History 2463:Zambia 2423:Canada 2413:Belize 2350:Canada 2315:(2001) 2291:Canada 2238:Canada 2117:Canada 1788:Supply 1783:Demand 1756:Shapes 1746:Global 1656:demand 1581:Supply 1470:  1222:  976:Causes 776:Thaler 756:Ostrom 751:Becker 746:Sowell 726:Baumol 631:Myrdal 626:Sraffa 621:Frisch 611:Knight 606:Keynes 581:Fisher 576:Veblen 561:Pareto 541:Menger 536:George 531:Jevons 526:Walras 516:Gossen 384:Public 379:Policy 334:Labour 299:Health 156:Market 2428:India 2355:India 2122:India 1778:Shock 1596:Model 1247:(PDF) 813:Lists 781:Hoppe 766:Lucas 731:Solow 721:Arrow 711:Simon 676:Lange 671:Hicks 646:Röpke 636:Hayek 586:Pigou 556:Clark 471:Smith 433:Urban 413:Socio 403:Rural 103:Macro 99:Micro 60:Index 2168:1945 1900:1812 1564:and 1560:and 1488:link 1468:ISBN 1324:2011 1259:2012 1220:ISBN 968:and 797:more 521:Marx 511:Mill 496:List 761:Sen 481:Say 339:Law 2482:: 1484:}} 1480:{{ 1427:. 1340:. 1299:. 1281:. 1267:^ 1249:. 1234:^ 1206:^ 1178:^ 910:A 101:/ 26:on 2262:/ 1991:/ 1938:/ 1881:/ 1722:/ 1654:/ 1630:/ 1579:/ 1550:e 1543:t 1536:v 1519:. 1490:) 1476:. 1344:. 1326:. 1261:. 1228:. 899:e 892:t 885:v 836:)

Index

a series
Economics

History
Outline
Index
classifications
Applied
Econometrics
Heterodox
International
Micro
Macro
Mainstream
Mathematical
Methodology
Political
JEL classification codes
Economic systems
Economic growth
Market
National accounting
Experimental economics
Computational economics
Game theory
Operations research
Middle income trap
Industrial complex
Agricultural
Behavioral

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