110:, or prior, expectation of the particular relationship in question before examining the data. For example, one might, prior to examining the information, have in mind a specific physical mechanism implying the particular relationship. One could then use the information to give support or cast doubt on the presence of that mechanism. Alternatively, if a second set of additional information can be generated using the same process as the original information, one can use the first (original) set of information to construct a hypothesis, and then test the hypothesis on the second (new) set of information. (See
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over 25 years and looked for statistically significant increases in rates of over 800 ailments. The study found that the incidence of childhood leukemia was four times higher among those who lived closest to the power lines, and it spurred calls to action by the
Swedish government. The problem with
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The Texas sharpshooter fallacy often arises when a person has a large amount of data at their disposal but only focuses on a small subset of that data. Some factor other than the one attributed may give all the elements in that subset some kind of common property (or pair of common properties, when
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A set of 100 randomly generated points displayed on a scatter graph. Examining the points, it is easy to identify apparent patterns. In particular, rather than spreading out evenly, it is not uncommon for random data points to form clusters, giving the (false) impression of "hot spots" created by
150:. Nostradamus's quatrains are often liberally translated from their original (archaic) French versions, in which their historical context is often lost, and then applied to support the erroneous conclusion that Nostradamus predicted a given modern-day event after the event actually occurred.
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the conclusion, however, was that the number of potential ailments, i.e., over 800, was so large that it created a high probability that at least one ailment would exhibit the appearance of a statistically significant difference by chance alone, a situation known as the
417:
Texas sharpshooter fallacy...this article demonstrates how post hoc target shifting occurs and how it can distort the frequency and likelihood ratio statistics used to characterize DNA matches, making matches appear more probative than they actually
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The fallacy is characterized by a lack of a specific hypothesis prior to the gathering of data, or the formulation of a hypothesis only after data have already been gathered and examined. Thus, it typically does not apply if one had an
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which is committed when differences in data are ignored, but similarities are overemphasized. From this reasoning, a false conclusion is inferred. This fallacy is the philosophical or rhetorical application of the
114:.) However, after constructing a hypothesis on a set of data, one would be committing the Texas sharpshooter fallacy if they then tested that hypothesis on the same data (see
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The term refers to the story of the Texan who shoots holes in the side of a barn and then draws a bull's-eye around the bullet holes
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common property by a factor other than its actual cause, then that person is likely committing a Texas sharpshooter fallacy.
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389:"Painting the target around the matching profile: the Texas sharpshooter fallacy in forensic DNA interpretation"
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description: ignoring the difference while focusing on the similarities, thus coming to an inaccurate conclusion
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The
Skeptic's Dictionary: a collection of strange beliefs, amusing deceptions, and dangerous delusions
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139:. Subsequent studies failed to show any association between power lines and childhood leukemia.
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248: – Fallacy of assumption of causality based on sequence of events
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The fallacy is often found in modern-day interpretations of the
187: – Acronym for "Hypothesizing after the results are known"
130:. The researchers surveyed people living within 300 meters of
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499:"Frontline: previous reports: transcripts: currents of fear"
230: – Informal fallacies based on correlative conjunctions
181: – Misuse of data analysis, also known as p-hacking
239:
Pages displaying short descriptions of redirect targets
163: – Hypothesis about sapient life and the universe
62:
who fires a gun at the side of a barn, then paints a
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power lines caused some kind of poor health effects
126:A Swedish study in 1992 tried to determine whether
58:The name comes from a metaphor about a person from
169: – Bias towards recently acquired information
481:"Swedish studies pinpoint power line cancer link"
55:to interpret patterns where none actually exist.
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47:(in cognitive psychology). It is related to the
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701:Affirmative conclusion from a negative premise
706:Negative conclusion from affirmative premises
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211: – Branch of mathematical combinatorics
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175: – Bias confirming existing attitudes
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205: – Explanations given after the fact
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430:Feychting, M.; Ahlbom, A. (1993-10-01).
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1613:Metaphors referring to war and violence
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237: – Refutation of a logical fallacy
199: – Flaw in mathematical modelling
193: – Statistical analysis phenomenon
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387:Thompson, William C. (July 18, 2009).
357:. John Wiley & Sons. p. 375.
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450:10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a116881
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116:hypotheses suggested by the data
1079:Correlation implies causation
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96:subset in the large data with
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528:"Nostradamus Predicted 9/11?"
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505:. 1995-06-13. Archived from
393:Law, Probability, & Risk
298:"Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy"
269:"Texas sharpshooter fallacy"
137:multiple comparisons problem
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70:of shots and claims to be a
43:problem (in statistics) and
7:
318:Atul Gawande (1999-08-02).
228:Correlative-based fallacies
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10:
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1503:I'm entitled to my opinion
296:Barry Popik (2013-03-09).
32:Texas sharpshooter fallacy
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320:"The cancer-cluster myth"
246:Post hoc ergo propter hoc
66:centered on the tightest
1529:Motte-and-bailey fallacy
629:Affirming the consequent
235:Cum hoc ergo propter hoc
132:high-voltage power lines
1549:Two wrongs make a right
880:Denying the correlative
1534:Psychologist's fallacy
1471:Argument to moderation
1461:Argument from anecdote
1411:Chronological snobbery
1035:Quoting out of context
1002:Overwhelming exception
885:Suppressed correlative
785:Quoting out of context
660:quantificational logic
634:Denying the antecedent
167:Availability heuristic
88:
87:some underlying cause.
1497:The Four Great Errors
1477:Argumentum ad populum
1466:Argument from silence
1170:Argumentum ad baculum
948:Faulty generalization
639:Argument from fallacy
191:Look-elsewhere effect
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1515:Invincible ignorance
1321:Reductio ad Stalinum
1307:Reductio ad Hitlerum
1263:Wisdom of repugnance
1030:Moving the goalposts
895:Illicit transference
820:Begging the question
741:Undistributed middle
649:Mathematical fallacy
624:Affirming a disjunct
349:Carroll, Robert Todd
273:Logically Fallacious
41:multiple comparisons
18:Sharpshooter fallacy
1248:Parade of horribles
1224:In-group favoritism
1050:Syntactic ambiguity
693:Syllogistic fallacy
616:propositional logic
556:Fallacy files entry
534:. 12 September 2001
161:Anthropic principle
49:clustering illusion
27:Statistical fallacy
1334:Poisoning the well
1151:Proof by assertion
1126:Texas sharpshooter
1060:Questionable cause
997:Slothful induction
956:Anecdotal evidence
816:Circular reasoning
711:Exclusive premises
673:Illicit conversion
406:10.1093/lpr/mgp013
112:hypothesis testing
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1233:Not invented here
938:Converse accident
860:Correlative-based
837:Compound question
780:False attribution
775:False equivalence
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222:Related fallacies
173:Confirmation bias
16:(Redirected from
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1623:Cognitive biases
1608:Causal fallacies
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1556:Special pleading
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1296:Appeal to motive
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1258:Stirring symbols
1238:Island mentality
1176:Wishful thinking
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873:Perfect solution
850:No true Scotsman
845:Complex question
830:Leading question
809:Question-begging
795:No true Scotsman
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683:Quantifier shift
678:Proof by example
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509:on 2016-02-03
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790:Loki's Wager
770:Equivocation
763:Equivocation
536:. Retrieved
531:
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511:. Retrieved
507:the original
502:
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276:, retrieved
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72:sharpshooter
57:
31:
29:
1544:Red herring
1301:Association
982:Conjunction
903:Composition
800:Reification
716:Existential
668:Existential
203:Postdiction
197:Overfitting
148:Nostradamus
1602:Categories
1520:Moralistic
1454:Sealioning
1448:Ad nauseam
1375:Ipse dixit
1287:Ad hominem
1111:Regression
913:Ecological
726:Four terms
644:Masked man
538:2012-07-03
532:snopes.com
513:2012-07-03
412:2012-03-25
370:2012-03-25
334:2009-10-10
304:2015-11-10
278:21 October
254:References
1561:Straw man
1439:Arguments
1428:fallacies
1402:Tradition
1392:Etymology
1364:Authority
1345:Tu quoque
1329:Bulverism
1099:Gambler's
1068:Animistic
1012:Ambiguity
978:Base rate
721:Necessity
593:fallacies
458:0002-9262
144:quatrains
78:Structure
53:cognition
45:apophenia
1587:Category
1219:Ridicule
1204:Flattery
1194:Children
1091:Post hoc
971:McNamara
933:Accident
908:Division
755:Informal
351:(2003).
154:See also
122:Examples
1406:Novelty
1381:Poverty
1243:Loyalty
1209:Novelty
1186:Emotion
1135:Appeals
1104:Inverse
1084:Cum hoc
1073:Furtive
591:Common
466:8213751
185:HARKing
107:ex ante
68:cluster
1491:Cliché
1426:Other
1397:Nature
1385:Wealth
1020:Accent
606:Formal
464:
456:
361:
34:is an
1253:Spite
1147:Stone
323:(PDF)
60:Texas
1339:Tone
1214:Pity
1199:Fear
597:list
462:PMID
454:ISSN
418:are.
359:ISBN
280:2014
98:some
94:some
30:The
658:In
614:In
503:PBS
446:doi
442:138
401:doi
146:of
118:).
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