580:
For example, in 1800 an
American worker could buy a candle that provided one hour of light for six hours of work. But in 1997 an American worker could buy an hour of light provided by a light bulb with barely half a second of work. That is to say, the invention of Edison improved by other North Americans managed to reduce the price drastically. Another case that we can see are personal computers that provide the service of calculations per second. Since the 1970s computers doubled their capacity of calculations per second every two years for the same amount of constant dollars. The fall in price is so rapid, that it has been necessary to invent new words because of the immense growth in the capacity of computers. First they were measured in bytes, then, kilobytes, megabytes, terabytes, yottabytes, etc ... Today's harvesters harvest many more hectares per hour than they did half a century ago, but they also have a geo-satellite system, combined with a chip that allows to improve productivity; plus air-conditioned, hermetic cabinets, which prevent dust intake and improve the quality of life of the operator, as well as radio and DVD player to improve his comfort. These examples suffice to show that if we correct the imports/exports price relationships by technological change, we will obtain a conclusion opposite to that of Prebisch–Singer. It is therefore argued that the peripheral countries that export commodities benefit from trade with the central powers to a greater extent than they do, because by incorporating the new technologies incorporated into manufactures they multiply their productivity. In fact, we can easily find examples of a reduction in the gap in GDP per capita between rich and poor countries when the latter open to free trade. Such is the case of Argentina and England between 1875 and 1930. Or China and USA between 1980 and 2018, or many other countries.
40:
616:
in favour of the 'investing' (i.e., developed) countries. However, Prebisch specifically deals with the economic cycle and highlights to a greater extent than Singer the reasons for the different behaviour of wages in developed and underdeveloped countries, and received much greater recognition for his work, in part because of efforts by industrialized countries like the United States to distance themselves from his work.
579:
Critics argue that it is not possible to compare the prices of manufactured goods over time because they change rapidly. The price relationship of
Prebisch–Singer does not take into account technological change. The important thing is not the price of the goods but the service provided by said goods.
615:
Therefore, the statistical argument about the long-term trend in terms of trade of underdeveloped countries must be attributed to Singer. However, both seem to have independently invented similar explanations, stressing that the terms of trade moved against the 'borrowing' (i.e., underdeveloped) and
525:
Singer and
Prebisch noticed a similar statistical pattern in long-run historical data on relative prices, but such regularity is consistent with a number of different explanations and policy stances. Later in his career, Prebisch argued that, due to the declining terms of trade primary producers
517:
interpretation of the international order which faults differences in power relations between 'core' and 'periphery' states as the chief cause for economic and political inequality (However, the
Prebisch-Singer thesis also works with different bargaining positions of labour in developed and
536:. For this reason, much of the recent research focuses less on the relative prices of primary products and manufactured goods, and more on the relationship between the prices of simple manufactures produced by developing countries and of complex manufactures produced by advanced economies.
555:
sector could imply. They are warned to remember that the outlook for commodity prices is not favourable and that windfalls will tend to be temporary, with the subsequent relapse likely to be greater than the temporary windfall. This is exactly the warning which the PST would give.
600:, published a paper titled "Post-war Price Relations between Under-developed and Industrialized Countries", which suggested that the terms of trade of underdeveloped countries had declined significantly between 1876 and 1948. Inspired by this,
518:
developing countries). As a result, the hypothesis enjoyed a high degree of popularity in the 1960s and 1970s with neo-Marxist developmental economists and even provided a justification for an expansion of the role of the commodity
605:
532:
The hypothesis has lost some of its relevance in the last 30 years, as exports of simple manufactures have overtaken exports of primary commodities in most developing countries outside of
588:
Prebisch's lectures from 1945 to 1949 revealed the development of the theoretical strands of his argument. What he did not have was a statistical argument. In
February 1949,
509:
This theory implies that the very structure of the global market is responsible for the persistent inequality within the world system. This provides an interesting twist on
499:
than primary products, especially food. Therefore, as incomes rise, the demand for manufactured goods increases more rapidly than demand for primary products.
431:
547:
to developing countries. They are warned to be prudent even when export prices are temporarily favourable and to guard against currency overvaluation and
931:
645:
471:
of primary-product-based economies to deteriorate. As of 2013, recent statistical studies have given support for the idea. The idea was developed by
326:
551:, with all the unfavourable impact on the rest of the economy and all the dangers of macroeconomic instability which a sudden boom in a major
593:
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face, developing countries should strive to diversify their economies and lessen dependence on primary commodity exports by developing their
778:
312:
424:
924:
576:(which exports mostly manufactured goods) saw deteriorating terms of trade—the opposite of what the hypothesis generally predicts.
712:
484:
417:
958:
543:
One indication of this is that the PST is now incorporated, both implicitly and explicitly, in the advice given by the
387:
298:
676:"Testing the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis since 1650: evidence from panel techniques that allow for multiple breaks"
132:
953:
866:
937:
Trade and
Development Report Chapter 3: Evolution of the Terms of Trade and its Impact on Developing Countries
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31:
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220:
117:
834:
Joseph L. Love (1980). "Raul
Prebisch and the Origins of the Doctrine of Unequal Exchange".
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A common explanation for this supposed phenomenon is that manufactured goods have a greater
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94:
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185:
84:
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39:
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Bibi, Samuele (2024). Prebisch and the terms of trade. Resources Policy, 90, 104813.
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Bibi, Samuele (2024). Prebisch and the terms of trade. Resources Policy, 90, 104813.
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673:
506:, so a decline in their prices tends to reduce revenue rather than increase it.
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706:
David I. Harvey; Neil M. Kellard; Jakob B. Madsen; Mark E. Wohar (April 2010).
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In 1998, Singer argued that the thesis he pioneered has joined the mainstream:
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United
Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbeans
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in the late 1940s; since that time, it has served as a major pillar of
150:
674:
Rabah Arezki; Kaddour Hadri; Prakash
Loungani; Yao Rao (August 2013).
573:
460:
445:
225:
572:, the terms of trade of most developing countries improved, while
560:
Recent statistical research has given the idea qualified support.
779:
The Terms of Trade Fifty Years Later - Convergence and
Divergence
609:
552:
533:
867:"The origins and interpretation of the Prebisch-Singer thesis"
708:"The Prebisch–Singer hypothesis: four centuries of evidence"
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The Terms of Trade for Commodities in the Twentieth Century
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presented a paper of his own discussing the decline at the
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806:"LOS TÉRMINOS DE INTERCAMBIO Y EL CAMBIO TECNOLÓGICO"
932:United Nations Conference on Trade and Development
646:United Nations Conference on Trade and Development
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767:https://doi.org/10.1016/J.RESOURPOL.2024.104813
755:https://doi.org/10.1016/J.RESOURPOL.2024.104813
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594:United Nations Department of Economic Affairs
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313:Imperialism, the Highest Stage of Capitalism
777:Singer, Hans (1998) The South Letter (30) "
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502:In addition, primary products have a low
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713:The Review of Economics and Statistics
485:import substitution industrialization
467:over the long term, which causes the
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13:
922:, and Parra, María Angela. (2003)
792:Trade and Development Report, 2008
463:declines relative to the price of
14:
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388:Primitive accumulation of capital
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299:How Europe Underdeveloped Africa
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133:Uneven and combined development
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836:Latin American Economic Review
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797:
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771:
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1:
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368:Global North and Global South
113:Ecologically unequal exchange
872:History of Political Economy
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7:
683:International Monetary Fund
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522:as a tool for development.
497:income elasticity of demand
456:) argues that the price of
285:The Accumulation of Capital
10:
980:
959:International trade theory
608:second annual meeting, in
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545:Bretton Woods Institutions
504:price elasticity of demand
450:Prebisch–Singer hypothesis
383:Prebisch–Singer hypothesis
885:10.1215/00182702-35-3-437
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726:10.1162/rest.2010.12184
641:Structuralist economics
631:Developmental economics
363:Illicit financial flows
790:United Nations (2008)
592:, then working in the
570:2000s commodities boom
558:
528:manufacturing industry
454:Prebisch–Singer thesis
954:Development economics
541:
483:and policies such as
221:Mirsaid Sultan-Galiev
920:Ocampo, José Antonio
804:Agustín Etchebarne.
358:Economic development
266:Immanuel Wallerstein
95:World-systems theory
964:Imperialism studies
186:John Bellamy Foster
85:Three Worlds Theory
32:Imperialism studies
16:Economic hypothesis
815:. pp. 159–195
465:manufactured goods
191:Andre Gunder Frank
166:Charles Bettelheim
75:Social imperialism
481:dependency theory
452:(also called the
442:
441:
373:Lumpenbourgeoisie
334:Naked Imperialism
201:Rudolf Hilferding
118:North–South model
90:Ultra-imperialism
80:Super-imperialism
55:Dependency theory
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520:futures exchange
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320:Monopoly Capital
181:Arghiri Emmanuel
176:Nikolai Bukharin
156:Giovanni Arrighi
123:Unequal exchange
65:Neo-Gramscianism
60:Intercommunalism
42:
19:
18:
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879:(3): 437–467.
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720:(2): 367–377.
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602:Raúl Prebisch
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598:New York City
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863:Richard Toye
856:
842:(3): 45–72.
839:
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829:
817:. Retrieved
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261:Leon Trotsky
211:J. A. Hobson
894:10036/25832
861:John Toye;
636:Group of 77
590:Hans Singer
568:During the
515:neo-Marxist
511:Wallerstein
477:Hans Singer
461:commodities
378:Neo-Marxism
306:Imperialism
256:Paul Sweezy
206:Peter Gowan
171:Ľuboš Blaha
128:Superprofit
948:Categories
819:3 February
739:30 October
688:30 October
658:References
151:Samir Amin
574:east Asia
564:Criticism
446:economics
327:Multitude
903:28151403
865:(2003).
734:57569448
648:(UNCTAD)
620:See also
406:Category
226:Li Minqi
107:Concepts
49:Theories
24:a series
22:Part of
934:(2005)
848:2502991
584:History
487:(ISI).
458:primary
347:Related
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846:
732:
610:Havana
553:export
534:Africa
491:Theory
448:, the
292:Empire
145:People
899:S2CID
844:JSTOR
809:(PDF)
730:S2CID
679:(PDF)
278:Works
26:about
821:2019
741:2014
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475:and
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