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history books as much as we have and looked at every bubble and every bust. We have found that there are no exceptions. We are up to 34 completed bubbles. Every single one of them has broken all the way back to the trend that existed prior to the bubble forming, which is a very tough standard. So it's simply illogical to give up the really high probabilities involved at the asset class level. All the data errors that frighten us all at the individual stock level are washed away at these great aggregations. It's simply more reliable, higher-quality data
253:
was built to do just one under favorable conditions. Now with hurricanes blowing, the Corps of
Engineers, as it were, are working around the clock to prop up a suspiciously jerry-built edifice. When a crisis occurs, you need competence and courage to deal with it. The bitterest disappointment of this crisis has been how completely the build-up of the bubbles in asset prices and risk-taking was rationalized and ignored by the authorities, especially the formerly esteemed Chairman of the Fed. ...
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collapse (which he admits is impossible, stating only that asset bubbles will eventually end at an uncertain future date). Grantham also acknowledges his strategy can underperform market averages for years, testing the patience of his clients, but he asserts that his strategy has always paid off long-term by avoiding overvalued assets.
762:"As the bubble grew, GMO systematically reduced exposure to Japan. By late 1988, GMO owned no Japanese stocks in what Jeremy Grantham characterized a 'bet-the-firm' position." David F. Swensen and Charles D. Ellis. Pioneering Portfolio Management An Unconventional Approach to Institutional Investment. The Free Press, ISBN 9780684864433
252:
To avoid the development of crises, you need a plentiful supply of foresight, imagination, and competence. A few quarters ago I likened our financial system to an elaborate suspension bridge, hopefully built with some good, old-fashioned
Victorian over-engineering. Well, it wasn't over-engineered! It
179:
historical levels from highs and lows. His firm seeks to understand historical changes in markets and predict results for seven years into the future. When there is deviation from historical means (averages), the firm may take an investment position based on anticipated return to the mean. The firm
226:
in 2010, Elizabeth Leary noted that many of
Grantham's predictions can be confirmed by analysis of his past newsletters. In a 2021 interview, Grantham distinguishes between identifying overpriced asset bubbles (which he believes is not particularly difficult), and predicting when such bubbles will
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published in
September 2007 that referred to three "near certainties": profit margins would come down, the housing market would break, and the risk-premium all over the world would widen, each with severe consequences. You can perhaps only have that degree of confidence if you have been to the
273:
I have a theory that people who find themselves running major-league companies are real organization-management types who focus on what they are doing this quarter or this annual budget. They are somewhat impatient, and focused on the present. Seeing these things requires more people with a
259:
I ask myself, 'Why is it that several dozen people saw this crisis coming for years?' I described it as being like watching a train wreck in very slow motion. It seemed so inevitable and so merciless, and yet the bosses of
Merrill Lynch and Citi and even U.S. Treasury Secretary
279:
So it's more or less guaranteed that every time we get an outlying, obscure event that has never happened before in history, they are always going to miss it. And the three or four-dozen-odd characters screaming about it are always going to be ignored. . .
392:, respectively, which will enable the institutions to build on their extensive expertise in climate change research. The 2011 tax filing for the Grantham Foundation for the Protection of the Environment shows the Foundation donated $ 1 million to both the
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So we kept putting organization people – people who can influence and persuade and cajole – into top jobs that once-in-a-blue-moon take great creativity and historical insight. But they don't have those
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on the basis of the ruinous environmental consequences that its construction will bring to
Alberta and to the entire planet due to the contribution that burning the extracted
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Grantham, together with his wife
Hannelore, established the Grantham Foundation For the Protection of the Environment in 1997. Substantial commitments have been made to
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316:" for approximately the last 250 years in which energy was very cheap. He believes that this bubble is coming to an end. He has stated his opposition to the
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Grantham was elected a member of the
American Academy of Arts and Sciences. With his wife, Hannelore, he received the Carnegie Medal for Philanthropy.
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In August 2019, he dedicated 98% (approximately $ 1 billion) of his personal wealth to fight climate change. Grantham believes that investing in
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Grantham's investment philosophy can be summarised by his commonly used phrase "reversion to the mean." Essentially, he believes that all
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In his Fall 2008 GMO letter, Grantham commented on his evaluation of the underlying causes of the then-ongoing world credit crisis:
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Jeremy
Grantham's "Race of Our Lives" speech -- presented in Chicago at the 2018 Morningstar Investment Conference (video and text)
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historical perspective who are more thoughtful and more right-brained – but we end up with an army of left-brained immediate doers.
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Grantham focused on the issue of personal traits and leadership in trying to explain how we reached the current economic crisis.
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as they were unfolding. Grantham avoided investing in
Japanese equities and real estate in the late 1980s during the peak of the
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Justin Fox (2009) The Myth of the Rational Market: A History of Risk, Reward, and Delusion on Wall Street. HarperCollins
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In GMO's April 2010 Quarterly Letter Grantham spoke to the tendency for all bubbles to revert to the mean saying:
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Grantham built much of his investing reputation over the course of his career by identifying speculative
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at Batterymarch Financial Management. The idea was unusual at the time and the fund was not a success.
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979:"Jeremy Grantham, environmental philanthropist: 'We're trying to buy time for the world to wake up'"
671:"Jeremy Grantham, environmental philanthropist: 'We're trying to buy time for the world to wake up'"
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420:. From 2006 to 2012, The Grantham Foundation for Protection of the Environment funded a $ 75,000
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Jeremy Grantham on global economy | CNBC Television | published on Mar 7, 2019 | youtube.com
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102:(born 6 October 1938) is a British investor and co-founder and chief investment strategist of
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from 2007 to 2010. Grantham started one of the world's first index funds in the early 1970s.
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8:
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493:(CBE) in the 2016 Birthday Honours for philanthropic service to climate change research.
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787:"How to Spot Stock Market Bubbles (Rebroadcast) - Barron's Streetwise Barron's Podcasts"
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of the 1990s. A decade later, he limited his exposure to the housing bubble. Writing in
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JEREMY GRANTHAM ON THE BATTLE TO SAVE SOCIETY FROM CLIMATE CHANGE: ‘WE’RE NOT WINNING’
654:'Derde beurscrash komt eraan en wordt een ongekend bloedbad' | Het Financieele Dagblad
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as of Dec 2020. He has been a vocal critic of various governmental responses to the
1030:"Grantham Institute – Climate Change and the Environment - Imperial College London"
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Time to Wake Up: Days of Abundant Resources and Falling Prices Are Over Forever
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with Grantham's philanthropic engagement for the "beyond coal" campaign of the
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as of March 2015. GMO has seen this number halve to US$ 65 billion in
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the economy will be an investing bonanza for those who know it's coming.
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1004:"Terence Corcoran: The hottest doc of the year kills green energy"
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Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment
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Grantham is known to be a strong advocate for investments in the
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Jeremy Grantham on population growth, China and climate sceptics
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636:"Investing Prophet Jeremy Grantham Takes Aim at Climate Change"
432:'s Metcalf Institute for Marine & Environmental Reporting.
851:"GMO's Jeremy Grantham on Climate Change and Investable Ideas"
1185:"ABC singer takes centre stage in honorary degree ceremonies"
542:
439:, is a profitable investment in the long run, claiming that
1097:"Carnegie Medal of Philanthropy: Hanne and Jeremy Grantham"
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Grantham has repeatedly stated his opinion that the rising
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In 1971, Grantham helped established one of the earliest
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1073:"American Academy of Arts and Sciences 2014 Class List"
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that year. The Foundation has also provided support to
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Views on market bubbles and the 2007–2008 credit crisis
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583:"Housing market a 'time bomb' says investment legend"
564:"Obama's 'predictably irrational' economic policies"
996:
382:
Grantham Institute - Climate Change and Environment
184:based on internal predictions of market direction.
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507:2012 Honorary degree, The University of Sheffield.
380:and the University of Sheffield, to establish the
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900:"What You Should Know About Investing in Timber"
110:firm. GMO had more than US$ 118 billion in
561:
497:2009 Honorary degree, Imperial College, London.
296:Views on fossil fuels and the Keystone pipeline
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312:figures worldwide and that we have been in a "
1289:Commanders of the Order of the British Empire
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735:"Grantham's Bubble Gun Hasn't Been Triggered"
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491:Commander of the Order of the British Empire
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218:, and avoided technology stocks during the
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360:was criticized in Jeff Gibbs' documentary
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819:"GMO Quarterly Letter Fall 2008 Part I #
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1127:(Supplement). 11 June 2016. p. B9.
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953:"The investment of the future is… wood"
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390:Grantham Centre for Sustainable Futures
268:– none of them seemed to see it coming.
235:For the record, I wrote an article for
143:Grantham was born on 6 October 1938 in
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926:"Diversifying a Portfolio With Timber"
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1269:Alumni of the University of Sheffield
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568:The Wall Street Journal (MarketWatch)
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1299:21st-century British philanthropists
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428:. The prize was administered by the
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562:Paul B. Farrell (1 December 2009).
555:
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1052:metcalfinstitute.org/granthamprize
801:"GMO Quarterly Letter, April 2010"
633:Steverman, Ben (17 January 2019).
581:Katherine Jimenez (16 June 2010).
14:
1310:
1203:
1138:Imperial College, London (2009).
883:"The Silva Tree Princess Project"
187:Grantham has been described as a
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1279:People from Ware, Hertfordshire
1187:. University of Sheffield. 2012
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773:"7 Stocks for the Next 7 Years"
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125:In 2011 he was included in the
16:British businessman (born 1938)
1274:Harvard Business School alumni
977:Hickman, Leo (12 April 2013).
849:Nick Summers (8 August 2013).
830:Interview with Jeremy Grantham
710:
688:
647:
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400:, and $ 2 million to the
340:that also relies on trees for
151:. He studied economics at the
1:
669:Leo Hickman (12 April 2013).
601:"The First Index Mutual Fund"
529:
520:, worked with Grantham at GMO
138:
95:Robert Jeremy Goltho Grantham
35:Robert Jeremy Goltho Grantham
656:. Retrieved 30 October 2016.
552:. Retrieved 20 February 2014
7:
511:
216:Japanese asset price bubble
155:. In 1966, he completed an
10:
1315:
1048:"About the Grantham Prize"
430:University of Rhode Island
402:Environmental Defense Fund
378:London School of Economics
84:
73:
59:
30:
23:
1215:The Grantham Foundation
1161:The New School (2012).
839:. Retrieved 11 May 2013
705:Harvard Business School
426:environmental reporting
374:Imperial College London
161:Harvard Business School
153:University of Sheffield
120:Global Financial Crisis
116:assets under management
112:assets under management
68:Harvard Business School
64:University of Sheffield
856:Bloomberg Businessweek
641:Bloomberg Businessweek
543:GMO LLC. official site
500:2010 Honorary degree,
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1284:People from Doncaster
835:16 March 2013 at the
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167:Investment philosophy
548:8 April 2015 at the
468:adding missing items
362:Planet of the Humans
354:conflict of interest
1034:www3.imperial.ac.uk
888:. Silva Tree. 2016.
189:contrarian investor
145:Ware, Hertfordshire
127:50 Most Influential
52:Ware, Hertfordshire
1264:American investors
1163:"Honorary Degrees"
1142:. Imperial College
1124:The London Gazette
930:The New York Times
828:Charlie Rose Show
466:; you can help by
447:Awards and honours
437:green technologies
398:Nature Conservancy
88:Hannelore Grantham
1140:"News and Events"
863:on 10 August 2013
524:Everything bubble
518:Edward Chancellor
489:He was appointed
484:
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352:). The potential
332:Timber investment
318:Keystone Pipeline
264:and Fed chairman
175:and markets will
132:Bloomberg Markets
106:, a Boston-based
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1010:. 24 April 2020
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441:decarbonizing
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47:(age 85)
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1233:The Guardian
1189:. Retrieved
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1167:. Retrieved
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983:The Guardian
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861:the original
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675:The Guardian
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609:the original
605:vanguard.com
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368:Philanthropy
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266:Ben Bernanke
262:Hank Paulson
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1294:1938 births
1229:Leo Hickman
1210:GMO Website
1119:"No. 61608"
718:"JG Letter"
615:28 February
504:, New York.
418:Smithsonian
394:Sierra Club
358:Sierra Club
200:index funds
129:ranking of
1253:Categories
1057:23 October
530:References
475:April 2013
464:incomplete
406:Greenpeace
350:wood chips
139:Early life
135:magazine.
74:Occupation
41:1938-10-06
224:Kiplinger
193:permabear
149:Doncaster
54:, England
1191:16 April
1169:17 April
1146:16 April
1103:15 March
1081:15 March
1014:26 April
988:26 April
962:26 April
936:26 April
910:26 April
867:13 April
833:Archived
680:13 April
546:Archived
512:See also
416:and the
388:and the
396:and to
346:biofuel
342:biomass
238:Fortune
104:GMO LLC
79:GMO LLC
957:Quartz
740:Forbes
701:Alumni
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