Efficient-market hypothesis

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retained 95 percent ownership of Palm, 3Com shareholders indirectly owned 1.5 Palm shares for each 3Com share, based on the respective number of outstanding shares in each company. Ironically, despite the buying frenzy in Palm, 3Com shares fell 21 percent on the day of the IPO, closing at 81.181. Based on the implicit embedded holding of Palm shares, 3Com shares should have closed at a price of at least $ 142.59 based solely on the value of the Palm shares at their closing price ($ 1.5 × $ 95.06 = $ 142.59). In effect, the market was valuing the stub portion of 3Com (that is, the rest of the company excluding Palm) at −$ 60.78! The market was therefore assigning a large negative price to all of the company’s remaining assets excluding Palm, which made absolutely no sense. The extreme disconnect between 3Com and Palm prices, despite their strong structural link, seems to be not merely wildly incongruous; it appears to border on the impossible." Schwager (2012), p. 59-60

709: 916:), but rather, constructed with long-short portfolios in response to the observed empirical EMH anomalies. For instance, the "small-minus-big" (SMB) factor in the FF3 factor model is simply a portfolio that holds long positions on small stocks and short positions on large stocks to mimic the risks small stocks face. These risk factors are said to represent some aspect or dimension of undiversifiable systematic risk which should be compensated with higher expected returns. Additional popular risk factors include the "HML" value factor (Fama and French, 1993); "MOM" momentum factor (Carhart, 1997); "ILLIQ" liquidity factors (Amihud et al. 2002). See also 810: 696:. Also, Samuelson published a proof showing that if the market is efficient, prices will exhibit random-walk behavior. This is often cited in support of the efficient-market theory, by the method of affirming the consequent, however in that same paper, Samuelson warns against such backward reasoning, saying "From a nonempirical base of axioms you never get empirical results." In 1970, Fama published a review of both the theory and the evidence for the hypothesis. The paper extended and refined the theory, included the definitions for three forms of 1153:, said that the hypothesis held up well during the crisis: "Stock prices typically decline prior to a recession and in a state of recession. This was a particularly severe recession. Prices started to decline in advance of when people recognized that it was a recession and then continued to decline. That was exactly what you would expect if markets are efficient." Despite this, Fama said that "poorly informed investors could theoretically lead the market astray" and that stock prices could become "somewhat irrational" as a result. 860:) of individuals underscored by behavioral finance. On the other hand, economists, behavioral psychologists and mutual fund managers are drawn from the human population and are therefore subject to the biases that behavioralists showcase. By contrast, the price signals in markets are far less subject to individual biases highlighted by the Behavioral Finance programme. Richard Thaler has started a fund based on his research on cognitive biases. In a 2008 report he identified 22: 1086:

Schwager proposes information may not be interpreted or applied in the same way by different people and skill may play a factor in how information is used. Schwager argues markets are difficult to beat because of the unpredictable and sometimes irrational behavior of humans who buy and sell assets in the stock market. Schwager also cites several instances of mispricing that he contends are impossible according to a strict or strong interpretation of the EMH.

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Rosenberg, Reid, and Lanstein 1985; Campbell and Shiller 1988; Jegadeesh and Titman 1993). Since the 2010s, studies have often found that return predictability has become more elusive, as predictability fails to work out-of-sample (Goyal and Welch 2008), or has been weakened by advances in trading technology and investor learning (Chordia, Subrahmanyam, and Tong 2014; McLean and Pontiff 2016; Martineau 2021).

734:. Shiller states that this plot "confirms that long-term investors—investors who commit their money to an investment for ten full years—did do well when prices were low relative to earnings at the beginning of the ten years. Long-term investors would be well advised, individually, to lower their exposure to the stock market when it is high, as it has been recently, and get into the market when it is low." 608:

there is some predictability over the long-term, the extent to which this is due to rational time-varying risk premia as opposed to behavioral reasons is a subject of debate. In their seminal paper, Fama, Fisher, Jensen, and Roll (1969) propose the event study methodology and show that stock prices on average react before a stock split, but have no movement afterwards.

2653:. Countrywide stock plunged in July 2007, up to two years after the US housing market began to show signs of . “The long lag in Countrywide’s response to the seriously deteriorating fundamentals seems in direct contradiction to the efficient market hypothesis assumption that prices instantaneously adjust to changing fundamentals.” Schwager (2012), p. 59-60. 951:", and that it provides a conclusive refutation of EMH. While other assets that have been used as currency (such as gold, tobacco) have value or utility independent of people's willingness to accept them as payment, Quiggin argues that "in the case of Bitcoin there is no source of value whatsoever" and thus Bitcoin should be priced at zero or worthless. 730:(inflation adjusted price divided by the prior ten-year mean of inflation-adjusted earnings). The vertical axis shows the geometric average real annual return on investing in the S&P Composite Stock Price Index, reinvesting dividends, and selling twenty years later. Data from different twenty-year periods is color-coded as shown in the key. See also 820:

beating the market: "They're just not going to do it. It's just not going to happen." Indeed, defenders of EMH maintain that behavioral finance strengthens the case for EMH in that it highlights biases in individuals and committees and not competitive markets. For example, one prominent finding in behavioral finance is that individuals employ

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as a mispricing that should not happen according to the efficient market hypothesis. 3Com offered 5% of Palm as stock initially priced at $ 38. Palm became a market sensation and the stock price more than quadrupled the first day of trading, while 3Com declined sharply at the same time. “Since 3Com

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that markets were the most effective way of aggregating the pieces of information dispersed among individuals within a society. Given the ability to profit from private information, self-interested traders are motivated to acquire and act on their private information. In doing so, traders contribute

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in the 1930s and 1940s suggested that professional investors were in general unable to outperform the market. During the 1930s-1950s empirical studies focused on time-series properties, and found that US stock prices and related financial series followed a random walk model in the short-term. While

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said "It should be clear that among the causes of the recent financial crisis was an unjustified faith in rational expectations, market efficiencies, and the techniques of modern finance." One financial analyst said "By 2007–2009, you had to be a fanatic to believe in the literal truth of the EMH."

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Behavioral psychology approaches to stock market trading are among some of the alternatives to EMH (investment strategies such as momentum trading seek to exploit exactly such inefficiencies). However, Nobel Laureate co-founder of the programme Daniel Kahneman —announced his skepticism of investors

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Joel Tillinghast, also a fund manager at Fidelity with a long history of outperforming a benchmark, has written that the core arguments of the EMH are "more true than not" and he accepts a "sloppy" version of the theory allowing for a margin of error. But he also contends the EMH is not completely

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Suppose that a piece of information about the value of a stock (say, about a future merger) is widely available to investors. If the price of the stock does not already reflect that information, then investors can trade on it, thereby moving the price until the information is no longer useful for

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given enough time and so no investor will beat the market average. But Pilkington points out that when proponents of the theory are presented with evidence that a small minority of investors do, in fact, beat the market over the long-run, these proponents then say that these investors were simply

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The concept of market efficiency had been anticipated at the beginning of the century in the dissertation submitted by Bachelier (1900) to the Sorbonne for his PhD in mathematics. In his opening paragraph, Bachelier recognizes that "past, present and even discounted future events are reflected in

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Note that this thought experiment does not necessarily imply that stock prices are unpredictable. For example, suppose that the piece of information in question says that a financial crisis is likely to come soon. Investors typically do not like to hold stocks during a financial crisis, and thus

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argues the EMH is "right for the wrong reasons". He agrees it is "very difficult" to consistently beat average market returns, but contends it's not due to how information is distributed more or less instantly to all market participants. Information may be distributed more or less instantly, but

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compared —one cannot know if the market is efficient if one does not know if a model correctly stipulates the required rate of return. Consequently, a situation arises where either the asset pricing model is incorrect or the market is inefficient, but one has no way of knowing which is the case.

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is a critical component to capturing "inefficiencies" in tests for abnormal returns. Any test of this proposition faces the joint hypothesis problem, where it is impossible to ever test for market efficiency, since to do so requires the use of a measuring stick against which abnormal returns are

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argued that the stock market is "micro efficient" but not "macro efficient": the EMH is much better suited for individual stocks than it is for the aggregate stock market as a whole. Research based on regression and scatter diagrams, published in 2005, has strongly supported Samuelson's dictum.

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are consistent with the EMH (Fama, Fisher, Jensen, and Roll, 1969), other empirical analyses have found problems with the efficient-market hypothesis. Early examples include the observation that small neglected stocks and stocks with high book-to-market (low price-to-book) ratios (value stocks)

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has stated the EMH is "obviously roughly correct", in that a hypothetical average investor will tend towards average results "and it's quite hard for anybody to beat the market by significant margins". However, Munger also believes "extreme" commitment to the EMH is "bonkers", as the theory's

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Many decades of empirical research on return predictability has found mixed evidence. Research in the 1950s and 1960s often found a lack of predictability (e.g. Ball and Brown 1968; Fama, Fisher, Jensen, and Roll 1969), yet the 1980s-2000s saw an explosion of discovered return predictors (e.g.

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Further empirical work has highlighted the impact transaction costs have on the concept of market efficiency, with much evidence suggesting that any anomalies pertaining to market inefficiencies are the result of a cost benefit analysis made by those willing to incur the cost of acquiring the

1074:(who focus on underpriced assets) have tended to outperform the broader market over long periods. Tillinghast also asserts that even staunch EMH proponents will admit weaknesses to the theory when assets are significantly over- or under-priced, such as double or half their value according to 683:

Early theories posited that predicting stock prices is unfeasible, as they depend on fresh information or news rather than existing or historical prices. Therefore, stock prices are thought to fluctuate randomly, and their predictability is believed to be no better than a 50% accuracy rate.

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These categories of tests refer to the information set used in the statement "prices reflect all available information." Weak-form tests study the information contained in historical prices. Semi-strong form tests study information (beyond historical prices) which is publicly available.

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masquerading as a theory. He argues that, taken at face value, the theory makes the banal claim that the average investor will not beat the market average—which is a tautology. When pressed on this point, Pinkington argues that EMH proponents will usually say that any

643:, but Bachelier did not cite him, and Bachelier's thesis is now considered pioneering in the field of financial mathematics. It is commonly thought that Bachelier's work gained little attention and was forgotten for decades until it was rediscovered in the 1950s by 647:, and then become more popular after Bachelier's thesis was translated into English in 1964. But the work was never forgotten in the mathematical community, as Bachelier published a book in 1912 detailing his ideas, which was cited by mathematicians including 691:

had begun to circulate Bachelier's work among economists. In 1964 Bachelier's dissertation along with the empirical studies mentioned above were published in an anthology edited by Paul Cootner. In 1965, Eugene Fama published his dissertation arguing for the

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colleagues of being "asleep at the switch", saying that "the movement to deregulate the financial industry went too far by exaggerating the resilience—the self healing powers—of laissez-faire capitalism." Others, such as economist and Nobel laurete

1058:—though both concepts are widely taught in business schools without seeming awareness of a contradiction. If asset prices are rational and based on all available data as the efficient market hypothesis proposes, then fluctuations in asset price are 1102:

said the EMH was responsible for the current financial crisis, claiming that belief in the hypothesis caused financial leaders to have a "chronic underestimation of the dangers of asset bubbles breaking". Financial journalist

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Because the EMH is formulated in terms of risk adjustment, it only makes testable predictions when coupled with a particular model of risk. As a result, research in financial economics since at least the 1990s has focused on

113:, that is, assuming that there is no risk-free way to trade profitably. Formally, if arbitrage is impossible, then the theorem predicts that the price of a stock is the discounted value of its future price and dividend: 2906: 975:

among the world's money managers with the highest rates of performance rebuts the claim of EMH proponents that luck is the reason some investors appear more successful than others. Nonetheless, Buffett has recommended

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to more and more efficient market prices. In the competitive limit, market prices reflect all available information and prices can only move in response to news. Thus there is a very close link between EMH and the

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prices reflect all available information. A direct implication is that it is impossible to "beat the market" consistently on a risk-adjusted basis since market prices should only react to new information.

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The efficient markets theory was not popular until the 1960s when the advent of computers made it possible to compare calculations and prices of hundreds of stocks more quickly and effortlessly. In 1945,

3644: 1177:, the use of efficient market theory in supporting securities class action litigation was affirmed. Supreme Court Justice Roberts wrote that "the court's ruling was consistent with the ruling in ' 901:. Further tests of portfolio efficiency by Gibbons, Ross and Shanken (1989) (GJR) led to rejections of the CAPM, although tests of efficiency inevitably run into the joint hypothesis problem (see 73:, in part due to his influential 1970 review of the theoretical and empirical research. The EMH provides the basic logic for modern risk-based theories of asset prices, and frameworks such as 2663: 997:(1973) argues that "the preponderance of statistical evidence" supports EMH, but admits there are enough "gremlins lurking about" in the data to prevent EMH from being conclusively proved. 2641:

Though US residential home prices peaked in 2006 and mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures "rose steadily throughout 2006 and accelerated in 2007 ”, investor interest remained strong in

659:. The book continued to be cited, but then starting in the 1960s the original thesis by Bachelier began to be cited more than his book when economists started citing Bachelier's work. 505: 635:

in 1900 in his PhD thesis "The Theory of Speculation" describing how prices of commodities and stocks varied in markets. It has been speculated that Bachelier drew ideas from the

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Travis Christofferson (2019). Curable: How an Unlikely Group of Radical Innovators Is Trying to Transform Our Health Care System. Chelsea Green Publishing, ISBN 1603589279, p. 37

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Stock prices quickly incorporate information from earnings announcements, making it difficult to beat the market by trading on these events. A replication of Martineau (2022).

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Empirical evidence has been mixed, but has generally not supported strong forms of the efficient-market hypothesis. According to Dreman and Berry, in a 1995 paper, low P/E (

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leading to a failure to correctly risk-adjust returns; Dreman's research had been accepted by efficient market theorists as explaining the anomaly in neat accordance with

412: 78: 217: 961:(AI) influences the applicability of the efficient market hypothesis in that the greater amount of AI-based market participants, the more efficient the markets become. 587: 337: 300: 2863: 247: 985:

originators were seduced by an "intellectually consistent theory that allowed them to do pretty mathematics the fundamentals did not properly tie to reality."

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Following GJR's results and mounting empirical evidence of EMH anomalies, academics began to move away from the CAPM towards risk factor models such as the

793:) stocks have greater returns. In an earlier paper, Dreman also refuted the assertion by Ray Ball that these higher returns could be attributed to higher 2080:

Basu, Sanjoy (1977). "Investment Performance of Common Stocks in Relation to Their Price-Earnings Ratios: A test of the Efficient Markets Hypothesis".

738:, a well-known proponent of the general validity of EMH, stated that this correlation may be consistent with an efficient market due to differences in 2444: 1738:"An Overview of Machine Learning, Deep Learning, and Reinforcement Learning-Based Techniques in Quantitative Finance: Recent Progress and Challenges" 616:

In Fama's influential 1970 review paper, he categorized empirical tests of efficiency into "weak-form", "semi-strong-form", and "strong-form" tests.

346:. However, if we assume the stochastic discount factor is constant and the time interval is short enough so that no dividend is being paid, we have 2152:

Chan, Kam C.; Gup, Benton E.; Pan, Ming-Shiun (4 March 2003). "International Stock Market Efficiency and Integration: A Study of Eighteen Nations".

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The term may alternatively be spelled with or without the hyphen and/or with the word "markets" instead of "market". Similarly, it may be called

74: 3351: 2500:

Pilkington, P (2017). The Reformation in Economics: A Deconstruction and Reconstruction of Economic Theory. Palgrave Macmillan. Pp261-265.

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Jarrow, Robert; Protter, Philip (2004). "A short history of stochastic integration and mathematical finance: the early years, 1880–1970".

1565:"Bachelier: Not the forgotten forerunner he has been depicted as. An analysis of the dissemination of Louis Bachelier's work in economics" 1532: 1024:'lucky'. Pilkington argues that introducing the idea that anyone who diverges from the theory is simply 'lucky' insulates the theory from 770:, and various other predictable human errors in reasoning and information processing. These have been researched by psychologists such as 2154: 1174: 968: 3692: 2991: 2692: 1123:

At the International Organization of Securities Commissions annual conference, held in June 2009, the hypothesis took center stage.

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Pilkington, P (2017). The Reformation in Economics: A Deconstruction and Reconstruction of Economic Theory. Palgrave Macmillan.

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Joel Tillinghast (2017). Big Money Thinks Small: Biases, Blind Spots and Smarter Investing. Columbia Business School Publishing

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is that it could drive a stake through the heart of the academic nostrum known as the efficient-market hypothesis." Former

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The performance of stock markets is correlated with the amount of sunshine in the city where the main exchange is located.

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Siegel, Laurence B. (2010). "Black Swan or Black Turkey? The State of Economic Knowledge and the Crash of 2007–2009".

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Economists Matthew Bishop and Michael Green claim that full acceptance of the hypothesis goes against the thinking of

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Courtault, Jean-Michel; Kabanov, Yuri; Bru, Bernard; Crepel, Pierre; Lebon, Isabelle; Le Marchand, Arnaud (2000).

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Human Behavior and the Efficiency of the Financial System (1999) by Robert J. Shiller Handbook of Macroeconomics

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Khan, Arshad M. (1986). "Conformity with Large Speculators: A Test of Efficiency in the Grain Futures Market".

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and other hedging strategies assuage if not eliminate potential mispricings from the severe risk-intolerance (

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investors may sell stocks until the price drops enough so that the expected return compensates for this risk.

3949: 3376: 767: 424: 109:. This theorem provides mathematical predictions regarding the price of a stock, assuming that there is no 4432: 4372: 4168: 4074: 3634: 3397: 2650: 2511:

Pilkington, P (2014). Hans Albert Expands Robinson's Critique of the Law of Demand. Fixing the Economists.

1945: 1002: 2607:

Jack Schwager (2012). Market Sense and Nonsense: How the Markets Really Work (and How They Don't). Wiley,

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See Working (1934), Cowles and Jones (1937), and Kendall (1953), and later Brealey, Dryden and Cunningham.

1463:, World Scientific Handbook in Financial Economics Series, vol. 5, WORLD SCIENTIFIC, pp. 25–38, 4488: 4483: 4158: 4030: 3984: 3967: 3920: 1205: 1145: 898: 697: 3186:

Working, Holbrook (1960). "Note on the Correlation of First Differences of Averages in a Random Chain".

1133:, dismissed the hypothesis as being a useless way to examine how markets function in reality. Economist 3943: 3937: 3408: 2777: 2642: 2276:

Hirshleifer, David A.; Shumway, Tyler (June 2003). "Good Day Sunshine: Stock Returns and the Weather".

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Litigation to both justify and as mechanism for the calculation of damages. In the Supreme Court Case,

1166: 1032:, Pilkington argues that the theory falls back into being a tautology or a pseudoscientific construct. 303: 2923: 3356: 3325: 1210: 849: 754:, and researchers have disputed the efficient-market hypothesis both empirically and theoretically. 4332: 4007: 3564: 3478: 3251: 3240:"The Persistence of Pricing Inefficiencies in the Stock Markets of the Eastern European EU Nations" 2753: 2537: 912:. These risk factor models are not properly founded on economic theory (whereas CAPM is founded on 833: 517:

Although the concept of an efficient market is similar to the assumption that stock prices follow:

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Samuelson, Paul A. (23 August 2015), "Proof that Properly Anticipated Prices Fluctuate Randomly",

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when such evidence is available' instead of relying exclusively on the efficient markets theory."

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Dreman David N.; Berry Michael A. (1995). "Overreaction, Underreaction, and the Low-P/E Effect".

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said the hypothesis had not failed, but was "seriously flawed" in its neglect of human nature.

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Ball R. (1978). Anomalies in Relationships between Securities' Yields and Yield-Surrogates.

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Cowles, Alfred; H. Jones (1937). "Some A Posteriori Probabilities in Stock Market Action".

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Fama, Eugene (1970). "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work".

1667:. Institute of Mathematical Statistics Lecture Notes - Monograph Series. pp. 75–80. 1325:

Fama, Eugene (1970). "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work".

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Apolaagoa, Christian; Namakobo, Annetta; Singh, Angad; Bhattacharyya, Ritabrata (2020).

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random. But if the random walk hypothesis is valid, then asset prices are not rational.

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that aim to track average market returns for most investors. Buffett's business partner

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The Efficient Market Hypothesists: Bachelier, Samuelson, Fama, Ross, Tobin, and Shiller

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Samuelson, Paul (1972). "Proof That Properly Anticipated Prices Fluctuate Randomly."

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Rosenberg B, Reid K, Lanstein R. (1985). Persuasive Evidence of Market Inefficiency.

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Samuelson, Paul (1965). "Proof That Properly Anticipated Prices Fluctuate Randomly".

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tended to achieve abnormally high returns relative to what could be explained by the

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shot up in price despite "ominous developments" behind the scenes leading up to the

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claimed the efficient markets theory was first proposed by the French mathematician

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and so, drawing on the philosopher of science and critic of neoclassical economics

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Price-Earnings ratios as a predictor of twenty-year returns based upon the plot by

3246:"As The Index Fund Moves from Heresy to Dogma . . . What More Do We Need To Know?" 2554: 2445:"Warren Buffett, 'Oracle of Omaha', criticises Wall Street and praises immigrants" 1424:

Mandelbrot, Benoit (January 1963). "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices".

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Taking logs and assuming that the Jensen's inequality term is negligible, we have

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Jung, Jeeman; Shiller, Robert (2005). "Samuelson's Dictum And The Stock Market".

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The efficient-market hypothesis emerged as a prominent theory in the mid-1960s.

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Remarks by John Bogle on the superior returns of passively managed index funds.

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The theory of efficient markets has been practically applied in the field of

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The idea that financial market returns are difficult to predict goes back to

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Francis Nicholson. Price-Earnings Ratios in Relation to Investment Results.

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Market Sense and Nonsense: How the Markets Really Work (and How They Don't)

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led to renewed scrutiny and criticism of the hypothesis. Market strategist

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valuable information in order to trade on it. Additionally, the concept of

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Sahu, Santosh Kumar; Mokhade, Anil; Bokde, Neeraj Dhanraj (January 2023).

936:, who both believed irrational behavior had a real impact on the markets. 21: 4442: 4422: 4402: 4397: 4342: 4231: 4163: 3603: 3361: 2826: 2790: 2151: 2000:"Here's What Warren Buffett Thinks About The Efficient Market Hypothesis" 1150: 1124: 1043: 1029: 893: 848:

thereby quickly eliminating any vestige of individual biases. Similarly,

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Economic theory that asset prices fully reflect all available information

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Proof That Properly Discounted Present Values of Assets Vibrate Randomly

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who consistently more than doubled market averages while managing the

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can be thought of as the combination of a model of risk with the EMH.

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EMH anomalies and rejection of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)

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attribute the imperfections in financial markets to a combination of

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market price, but often show no apparent relation to price changes".

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Bogle on Mutual Funds: New Perspectives for the Intelligent Investor

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accurate or accurate in all cases, given the recurrent existence of

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has also argued against EMH, most notably in his 1984 presentation "

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real price-earnings ratio of the S&P Composite Stock Price Index

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Stock Characters: As Two Economists Debate Markets, The Tide Shifts

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and other similar obligations subject to competitive market forces

595:, the EMH does not always assume that stocks follow a martingale. 4085: 3234:"Earnings Quality and the Equity Risk Premium: A Benchmark Model" 2389:

Artificial Intelligence and Economic Theory: Skynet in the Market

1175:

Halliburton v. Erica P. John Fund, U.S. Supreme Court, No. 13-317

1070:(when some assets are dramatically overpriced) and the fact that 944: 3828: 2180: 1615:"Louis Bachelier on the Centenary of Theorie de la Speculation" 1360:

Schwert, G. William (2003). "Anomalies and market efficiency".

1157:

Efficient markets applied in securities class action litigation

3172:, Vol. 6, No. 2, pp. 41–49. Reproduced as Chapter 198 in 2973:"Are Markets Efficient? Even the Supreme Court Is Weighing In" 2721:"Book Review: 'The Myth of the Rational Market' by Justin Fox" 3751: 3413: 1144:

to back away from the hypothesis. Posner accused some of his

42: 1792:

Fama, Eugene (1965). "The Behavior of Stock Market Prices".

1273:) with or without the hyphen and/or with the word "markets". 2628: 2522: 611: 3141:

Malkiel, Burton G. (1987). "efficient market hypothesis,"

1165:

Litigation. Efficient market theory, in conjunction with "

1612: 3228: 2574:. New York, NY: Simon & Schuster Paperback. p. 2473:. Guru Focus, via Yahoo Finance, accessed 25 March 2022 1572:

The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought

2864:"Has 'guiding model' for global markets gone haywire?" 2664:"Sun finally sets on notion that markets are rational" 101:

How efficient markets are (and are not) linked to the

2491:

Malkiel, A Random Walk Down Wall Street, 1996, p. 175

525: 510:

which implies that the log of stock prices follows a

427: 355: 312: 275: 255: 228: 122: 2065: 2063: 1606: 54:, that is, deviations from specific models of risk. 2225:

Contrarian Investment Strategy: The Next Generation

1389:

Annales Scientifiques de l'École Normale Supérieure

924:

View of some journalists, economists, and investors

342:Note that this equation does not generally imply a 2896: 2712: 2275: 1522: 1054:, has argued that the EMH is contradictory to the 581: 499: 406: 331: 294: 261: 241: 211: 2214: 2060: 1656: 844:in the pricing of these obligations would invite 4470: 3216:"Rest in Peace Post-Earnings Announcement Drift" 2239:"Modern Portfolio Theory vs. Behavioral Finance" 1735: 1558: 1556: 1554: 1552: 1550: 1461:The World Scientific Handbook of Futures Markets 249:is the expected value given information at time 3392:Qualifying investor alternative investment fund 2114: 2112: 3236:abstract from Contemporary Accounting Research 3025: 2386: 620:Strong-form tests regard private information. 3693: 3278: 2121:"The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns" 1662: 1547: 1089: 3352:Labour-sponsored venture capital corporation 2918: 2916: 2746: 2155:Journal of Business Finance & Accounting 2109: 2018:"Soros: Financial Markets | Financial Times" 700:: weak, semi-strong and strong (see above). 339:is the dividend the stock pays next period. 2684: 2418:"Paul the octopus proves Buffett was right" 1864: 1140:The financial crisis led economics scholar 969:The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville 3700: 3686: 3664: 3285: 3271: 3242:abstract from Economic and Business Review 2718: 2387:Marwala, Tshilidzi; Hurwitz, Evan (2017). 2118: 1779:The Random Character of StockMarket Prices 1423: 1127:, the chief economics commentator for the 3292: 3088: 2913: 2894: 2536: 2341:"The Bitcoin Bubble and a Bad Hypothesis" 2332: 2136: 1818: 1753: 1706:The Current State of Business Disciplines 1562: 1458: 1400: 1382: 88: 3134:Lo, Andrew and MacKinlay, Craig (2001). 3069:Journal of the Royal Statistical Society 2992:"New Hurdle in Investors' Class Actions" 2359:"Herausforderung künstliche Intelligenz" 2310: 1837: 947:is perhaps the finest example of a pure 808: 804: 707: 623: 612:Weak, semi-strong, and strong-form tests 20: 3218:. Critical Finance Review, Forthcoming. 3185: 3145:New Palgrave: A Dictionary of Economics 3062: 2749:"Financial Reform: Unfinished Business" 2645:and the stock of mortgage lenders like 2471:Charlie Munger's Worldly Wisdom: Part 2 2415: 2338: 2266:. Fuller & Thaler Asset Management. 1943: 1776: 1359: 500:{\displaystyle \log P_{t}=\log M+E_{t}} 4471: 3176:, Volume III, Cambridge, M.I.T. Press. 3174:Samuelson, Collected Scientific Papers 3065:"The Analysis of Economic Time Series" 2989: 2970: 2774: 2690: 2372:GmbH, finanzen.net (12 October 2015). 1939: 1937: 1500:Prize Lecture for the Nobel Foundation 1010:has argued that the EMH is actually a 3707: 3681: 3266: 3181:"The Arithmetic of Active Management" 2909:from the original on 12 January 2022. 2693:"Poking Holes in a Theory on Markets" 2567: 2041: 1838:Schwager, Jack D. (19 October 2012). 1535:from the original on 10 December 2022 766:, overreaction, representative bias, 3105: 2623:Schwager cites the 2000 spin-off of 2371: 2313:"The Case for Financial Reinvention" 2079: 1905: 1791: 1704:DIMSON, ELROY. "MARKET EFFICIENCY". 1531:. Financial times. 18 October 2010. 1490: 1362:Handbook of the Economics of Finance 1324: 1320: 1318: 1316: 1314: 598: 107:fundamental theorem of asset pricing 105:theory can be described through the 2469:Rupert Hargreaves (April 13, 2017) 1934: 13: 3005: 2138:10.1111/j.1540-6261.1992.tb04398.x 2094:10.1111/j.1540-6261.1977.tb01979.x 2069:Empirical papers questioning EMH: 1703: 1006:, economist and financial analyst 746:Investors, including the likes of 14: 4500: 3222: 2719:Lowenstein, Roger (7 June 2009). 2311:Hurt III, Harry (19 March 2010). 2236: 1484: 1311: 722:). The horizontal axis shows the 69:, but is closely associated with 3956:Electronic communication network 3663: 3656: 3655: 2747:Paul Volcker (27 October 2011). 1865:Collin Read (15 December 2012). 1294:"Efficient markets theory (EMT)" 1107:said "The upside of the current 3136:A Non-random Walk Down Wall St. 2983: 2964: 2944: 2895:Stevenson, Tom (17 June 2009). 2888: 2856: 2806: 2768: 2740: 2656: 2635: 2617: 2601: 2592: 2561: 2516: 2505: 2494: 2485: 2476: 2463: 2437: 2409: 2380: 2365: 2351: 2339:Quiggin, John (16 April 2013). 2304: 2269: 2256: 2230: 2201: 2174: 2145: 2102:Journal of Portfolio Management 2035: 2010: 1992: 1968: 1899: 1885: 1858: 1831: 1812: 1785: 1770: 1729: 1712: 1697: 1515: 870:global financial crisis of 2008 824:. It is demonstrably true that 673:The Use of Knowledge in Society 75:consumption-based asset pricing 3489:Socially responsible investing 3419:Split capital investment trust 3153:A Random Walk Down Wall Street 2872:. 11 June 2009. Archived from 2416:Hoffman, Greg (14 July 2010). 2209:Journal of Financial Economics 1979:A Random Walk Down Wall Street 1947:Irrational Exuberance (2d ed.) 1720:Economic theory and the crisis 1665:A Festschrift for Herman Rubin 1506: 1493:"Two Pillars of Asset Pricing" 1452: 1417: 1376: 1353: 1286: 1259: 1035:Nobel Prize-winning economist 994:A Random Walk Down Wall Street 563: 549: 529: 494: 469: 401: 382: 206: 203: 165: 146: 1: 3950:Multilateral trading facility 3377:Open-ended investment company 2990:Liptak, Adam (23 June 2014). 2971:Sommer, Jeff (28 June 2014). 1370:10.1016/S1574-0102(03)01024-0 1280: 4373:Returns-based style analysis 4169:Post-modern portfolio theory 4075:Security characteristic line 3635:Returns-based style analysis 3398:Real estate investment trust 3170:Industrial Management Review 2651:United States housing bubble 1821:Industrial Management Review 1584:10.1080/09672567.2010.540343 1003:The Reformation in Economics 971:". He says preponderance of 703: 407:{\displaystyle P_{t}=ME_{t}} 7: 4479:Efficient-market hypothesis 4127:Efficient-market hypothesis 4031:Capital asset pricing model 3968:Straight-through processing 3570:Efficient-market hypothesis 3214:Martineau, Charles (2021). 3151:Malkiel, Burton G. (1996). 2691:Nocera, Joe (5 June 2009). 2119:Fama, E; French, K (1992). 1777:Cootner, Paul, ed. (1964). 1385:"Théorie de la spéculation" 1206:Financial market efficiency 1188: 1046:, a mutual fund manager at 698:financial market efficiency 212:{\displaystyle P_{t}=E_{t}} 31:efficient-market hypothesis 10: 4505: 3944:Alternative Trading System 3409:Short-term investment fund 2961:. Wall Street Journal 2004 2778:Financial Analysts Journal 2643:mortgage-backed securities 2183:Financial Analysts Journal 2074:Financial Analysts Journal 1952:Princeton University Press 1563:Jovanovic, Franck (2012). 1469:10.1142/9789814566926_0002 1196:Adaptive market hypothesis 1167:fraud-on-the-market theory 1096:2007–2008 financial crisis 1090:2007–2008 financial crisis 910:Fama-French 3 factor model 304:stochastic discount factor 79:intermediary asset pricing 4219: 4094: 3993: 3913: 3821: 3788: 3749: 3715: 3653: 3612: 3557: 3516: 3452: 3357:Listed investment company 3326:Fonds commun de placement 3300: 3108:Atlantic Economic Journal 3063:Kendall, Maurice (1942). 1854:– via Google Books. 1844:. John Wiley & Sons. 1211:Grossman-Stiglitz Paradox 1081:In a 2012 book, investor 4008:Arbitrage pricing theory 3565:Arbitrage pricing theory 3148:, v. 2, pp. 120–23. 2754:New York Review of Books 1944:Shiller, Robert (2005). 1252: 4287:Initial public offering 4148:Modern portfolio theory 4043:Dividend discount model 3926:List of stock exchanges 3640:Traditional investments 3625:Commodity pool operator 3599:Noisy market hypothesis 3594:Modern portfolio theory 3444:Unitised insurance fund 3372:Open-ended fund company 3314:Common contractual fund 2290:10.1111/1540-6261.00556 2195:10.2469/faj.v51.n4.1917 2168:10.1111/1468-5957.00134 2076:. Jan/Feb 1968:105–109. 1673:10.1214/lnms/1196285381 1634:10.1111/1467-9965.00098 1426:The Journal of Business 1267:efficient-market theory 1231:Noisy market hypothesis 1171:Securities Class Action 1163:Securities Class Action 1019:will converge with the 959:artificial intelligence 914:Modern Portfolio Theory 892:While event studies of 840:. Any manifestation of 799:modern portfolio theory 582:{\displaystyle E=S_{t}} 332:{\displaystyle D_{t+1}} 295:{\displaystyle M_{t+1}} 4175:Random walk hypothesis 3620:Alternative investment 3534:Institutional investor 2044:The Alchemy of Finance 2042:Soros, George (1987). 1383:Bachelier, L. (1900). 1246:Random walk hypothesis 1056:random walk hypothesis 842:hyperbolic discounting 822:hyperbolic discounting 816: 743: 694:random walk hypothesis 678:random walk hypothesis 671:argued in his article 583: 501: 408: 333: 296: 263: 243: 213: 89:Theoretical background 26: 4313:Market capitalization 4122:Dollar cost averaging 3434:Unit investment trust 3294:Investment management 2647:Countrywide Financial 2571:One Up On Wall Street 2568:Lynch, Peter (1989). 2423:Sydney Morning Herald 2345:The National Interest 2227:. Simon and Schuster. 1491:Fama, Eugene (2013). 1241:Transparency (market) 1181:' because it allows ' 854:derivative securities 812: 805:Behavioral psychology 756:Behavioral economists 728:Irrational Exuberance 711: 624:Historical background 584: 502: 409: 334: 297: 264: 244: 242:{\displaystyle E_{t}} 214: 37:) is a hypothesis in 24: 4133:Fundamental analysis 4117:Contrarian investing 4080:Security market line 3985:Liquidity aggregator 3962:Direct market access 3873:Quantitative analyst 3424:Tax transparent fund 3320:Exchange-traded fund 3138:Princeton Paperbacks 3011:Bogle, John (1994). 2957:6 April 2012 at the 2827:10.2139/ssrn.3686552 2791:10.2469/faj.v66.n4.4 2046:. Wiley. p. 6. 1622:Mathematical Finance 1169:", has been used in 1076:fundamental analysis 1048:Fidelity Investments 523: 425: 353: 310: 273: 253: 226: 120: 4378:Reverse stock split 4323:Market manipulation 4247:Dual-listed company 4107:Algorithmic trading 4037:Capital market line 3839:Inter-dealer broker 3479:Manager of managers 3387:Private-equity fund 3179:Sharpe, William F. 3081:1942Natur.150..335B 2950:Jon E. Hilsenrath, 2903:The Daily Telegraph 2803:Quote on p. 7. 2726:The Washington Post 2262:Thaler RH. (2008). 1794:Journal of Business 1755:10.3390/app13031956 1726:. 14 November 2009. 934:John Maynard Keynes 39:financial economics 4489:Behavioral finance 4484:1900 introductions 4418:Stock market index 4257:Efficient frontier 4196:Technical analysis 4154:Momentum investing 3976:(private exchange) 3866:Proprietary trader 3808:Shares outstanding 3798:Authorised capital 3589:Martingale pricing 3499:Thematic investing 3464:passive management 3120:10.1007/BF02304624 2996:The New York Times 2977:The New York Times 2924:"After the Blowup" 2869:The Jerusalem Post 2698:The New York Times 2669:The Globe and Mail 2451:. 25 February 2017 2361:. 9 November 2015. 2318:The New York Times 2278:Journal of Finance 2125:Journal of Finance 2082:Journal of Finance 1908:Journal of Finance 1402:10.24033/asens.476 1327:Journal of Finance 943:has claimed that " 868:as central to the 817: 744: 579: 497: 404: 329: 292: 259: 239: 209: 27: 4466: 4465: 4267:Flight-to-quality 4019:Buffett indicator 3709:Financial markets 3675: 3674: 3453:Investment styles 2932:. 11 January 2010 2613:978-1-118-49456-1 2585:978-0-671-66103-8 2547:10.1093/ei/cbi015 2402:978-3-319-66104-9 1975:Burton G. Malkiel 1961:978-0-691-12335-6 1682:978-0-940600-61-4 1226:Investment theory 1201:Dumb agent theory 1008:Philip Pilkington 955:Tshilidzi Marwala 791:price-to-earnings 721: 657:Andrey Kolmogorov 637:random walk model 629:Benoit Mandelbrot 599:Empirical studies 262:{\displaystyle t} 41:that states that 4496: 4383:Share repurchase 4095:Trading theories 3980:Crossing network 3938:Over-the-counter 3775:Restricted stock 3731:Secondary market 3702: 3695: 3688: 3679: 3678: 3667: 3666: 3659: 3658: 3508:growth investing 3474:Impact investing 3342:Investment trust 3287: 3280: 3273: 3264: 3263: 3211: 3155:, W. W. Norton, 3131: 3102: 3092: 3090:10.1038/150335a0 3059: 3000: 2999: 2987: 2981: 2980: 2968: 2962: 2948: 2942: 2941: 2939: 2937: 2920: 2911: 2910: 2900: 2892: 2886: 2885: 2883: 2881: 2860: 2854: 2853: 2851: 2849: 2810: 2804: 2802: 2772: 2766: 2765: 2763: 2761: 2744: 2738: 2737: 2735: 2733: 2716: 2710: 2709: 2707: 2705: 2688: 2682: 2681: 2679: 2677: 2660: 2654: 2639: 2633: 2621: 2615: 2605: 2599: 2596: 2590: 2589: 2565: 2559: 2558: 2540: 2525:Economic Inquiry 2520: 2514: 2509: 2503: 2498: 2492: 2489: 2483: 2480: 2474: 2467: 2461: 2460: 2458: 2456: 2441: 2435: 2434: 2432: 2430: 2413: 2407: 2406: 2384: 2378: 2377: 2369: 2363: 2362: 2355: 2349: 2348: 2336: 2330: 2329: 2327: 2325: 2308: 2302: 2301: 2284:(3): 1009–1032. 2273: 2267: 2260: 2254: 2253: 2251: 2249: 2234: 2228: 2218: 2212: 2205: 2199: 2198: 2178: 2172: 2171: 2149: 2143: 2142: 2140: 2116: 2107: 2097: 2067: 2058: 2057: 2039: 2033: 2032: 2030: 2028: 2014: 2008: 2007: 2004:Business Insider 1996: 1990: 1972: 1966: 1965: 1941: 1932: 1931: 1903: 1897: 1896: 1889: 1883: 1882: 1862: 1856: 1855: 1835: 1829: 1828: 1816: 1810: 1809: 1789: 1783: 1782: 1774: 1768: 1767: 1757: 1742:Applied Sciences 1733: 1727: 1716: 1710: 1709: 1701: 1695: 1694: 1660: 1654: 1653: 1619: 1610: 1604: 1603: 1569: 1560: 1545: 1544: 1542: 1540: 1526: 1519: 1513: 1510: 1504: 1503: 1497: 1488: 1482: 1481: 1456: 1450: 1449: 1421: 1415: 1414: 1404: 1380: 1374: 1373: 1357: 1351: 1350: 1322: 1309: 1308: 1306: 1304: 1290: 1274: 1263: 1105:Roger Lowenstein 1068:economic bubbles 1021:average investor 768:information bias 760:cognitive biases 732:ten-year returns 717: 591:which follows a 588: 586: 585: 580: 578: 577: 562: 561: 552: 547: 546: 514:(with a drift). 506: 504: 503: 498: 493: 492: 468: 467: 443: 442: 413: 411: 410: 405: 400: 399: 381: 380: 365: 364: 338: 336: 335: 330: 328: 327: 301: 299: 298: 293: 291: 290: 268: 266: 265: 260: 248: 246: 245: 240: 238: 237: 218: 216: 215: 210: 202: 201: 183: 182: 164: 163: 145: 144: 132: 131: 52:market anomalies 4504: 4503: 4499: 4498: 4497: 4495: 4494: 4493: 4469: 4468: 4467: 4462: 4453:Voting interest 4363:Public offering 4298:Mandatory offer 4272:Government bond 4252:DuPont analysis 4215: 4211:Value investing 4206:Value averaging 4201:Trend following 4186:Style investing 4181:Sector rotation 4096: 4090: 4069:Net asset value 3995:Stock valuation 3989: 3909: 3817: 3784: 3770:Preferred stock 3745: 3711: 3706: 3676: 3671: 3649: 3608: 3553: 3549:Performance fee 3539:Net asset value 3529:Fund governance 3524:Closed-end fund 3512: 3448: 3305: 3303: 3296: 3291: 3225: 3200:10.2307/1907574 3075:(3803): 11–25. 3040:10.2307/1905515 3008: 3006:Further reading 3003: 2988: 2984: 2969: 2965: 2959:Wayback Machine 2949: 2945: 2935: 2933: 2922: 2921: 2914: 2893: 2889: 2879: 2877: 2862: 2861: 2857: 2847: 2845: 2811: 2807: 2773: 2769: 2759: 2757: 2745: 2741: 2731: 2729: 2717: 2713: 2703: 2701: 2689: 2685: 2675: 2673: 2662: 2661: 2657: 2640: 2636: 2622: 2618: 2606: 2602: 2597: 2593: 2586: 2566: 2562: 2521: 2517: 2510: 2506: 2499: 2495: 2490: 2486: 2481: 2477: 2468: 2464: 2454: 2452: 2443: 2442: 2438: 2428: 2426: 2414: 2410: 2403: 2385: 2381: 2370: 2366: 2357: 2356: 2352: 2337: 2333: 2323: 2321: 2309: 2305: 2274: 2270: 2261: 2257: 2247: 2245: 2235: 2231: 2219: 2215: 2206: 2202: 2179: 2175: 2150: 2146: 2117: 2110: 2068: 2061: 2054: 2040: 2036: 2026: 2024: 2016: 2015: 2011: 1998: 1997: 1993: 1973: 1969: 1962: 1942: 1935: 1920:10.2307/2325486 1904: 1900: 1891: 1890: 1886: 1879: 1863: 1859: 1852: 1836: 1832: 1817: 1813: 1790: 1786: 1775: 1771: 1734: 1730: 1718:Kirman, Alan. " 1717: 1713: 1702: 1698: 1683: 1661: 1657: 1617: 1611: 1607: 1567: 1561: 1548: 1538: 1536: 1521: 1520: 1516: 1511: 1507: 1495: 1489: 1485: 1479: 1457: 1453: 1422: 1418: 1381: 1377: 1358: 1354: 1339:10.2307/2325486 1323: 1312: 1302: 1300: 1292: 1291: 1287: 1283: 1278: 1277: 1264: 1260: 1255: 1250: 1221:Insider trading 1191: 1183:direct evidence 1159: 1130:Financial Times 1113:Federal Reserve 1109:Great Recession 1100:Jeremy Grantham 1092: 1072:value investors 1017:actual investor 973:value investors 926: 903:Roll's critique 890: 850:diversification 814:Daniel Kahneman 807: 772:Daniel Kahneman 726:as computed in 706: 633:Louis Bachelier 626: 614: 601: 573: 569: 557: 553: 548: 536: 532: 524: 521: 520: 482: 478: 463: 459: 438: 434: 426: 423: 422: 389: 385: 376: 372: 360: 356: 354: 351: 350: 317: 313: 311: 308: 307: 280: 276: 274: 271: 270: 254: 251: 250: 233: 229: 227: 224: 223: 191: 187: 172: 168: 153: 149: 140: 136: 127: 123: 121: 118: 117: 91: 17: 12: 11: 5: 4502: 4492: 4491: 4486: 4481: 4464: 4463: 4461: 4460: 4455: 4450: 4445: 4440: 4435: 4430: 4425: 4420: 4415: 4413:Stock exchange 4410: 4408:Stock dilution 4405: 4400: 4395: 4390: 4385: 4380: 4375: 4370: 4365: 4360: 4355: 4350: 4345: 4340: 4335: 4333:Mean reversion 4330: 4325: 4320: 4315: 4310: 4308:Market anomaly 4305: 4300: 4295: 4290: 4284: 4279: 4274: 4269: 4264: 4259: 4254: 4249: 4244: 4239: 4234: 4229: 4227:Bid–ask spread 4223: 4221: 4217: 4216: 4214: 4213: 4208: 4203: 4198: 4193: 4188: 4183: 4178: 4172: 4166: 4161: 4156: 4151: 4145: 4140: 4135: 4130: 4124: 4119: 4114: 4109: 4103: 4101: 4092: 4091: 4089: 4088: 4083: 4077: 4072: 4066: 4061: 4056: 4054:Earnings yield 4051: 4049:Dividend yield 4046: 4040: 4034: 4028: 4022: 4016: 4011: 4005: 3999: 3997: 3991: 3990: 3988: 3987: 3982: 3977: 3971: 3965: 3959: 3953: 3947: 3941: 3940:(off-exchange) 3935: 3934: 3933: 3928: 3917: 3915: 3914:Trading venues 3911: 3910: 3908: 3907: 3902: 3901: 3900: 3890: 3885: 3880: 3875: 3870: 3869: 3868: 3863: 3853: 3848: 3843: 3842: 3841: 3836: 3825: 3823: 3819: 3818: 3816: 3815: 3813:Treasury stock 3810: 3805: 3800: 3794: 3792: 3786: 3785: 3783: 3782: 3780:Tracking stock 3777: 3772: 3767: 3762: 3756: 3754: 3747: 3746: 3744: 3743: 3738: 3733: 3728: 3726:Primary market 3722: 3720: 3713: 3712: 3705: 3704: 3697: 3690: 3682: 3673: 3672: 3654: 3651: 3650: 3648: 3647: 3642: 3637: 3632: 3627: 3622: 3616: 3614: 3613:Related topics 3610: 3609: 3607: 3606: 3601: 3596: 3591: 3586: 3572: 3567: 3561: 3559: 3555: 3554: 3552: 3551: 3546: 3541: 3536: 3531: 3526: 3520: 3518: 3514: 3513: 3511: 3510: 3501: 3496: 3494:Social trading 3491: 3486: 3484:Social finance 3481: 3476: 3471: 3466: 3456: 3454: 3450: 3449: 3447: 3446: 3441: 3436: 3431: 3426: 3421: 3416: 3411: 3406: 3401: 3395: 3389: 3384: 3379: 3374: 3369: 3364: 3359: 3354: 3349: 3344: 3339: 3334: 3329: 3323: 3317: 3310: 3308: 3298: 3297: 3290: 3289: 3282: 3275: 3267: 3261: 3260: 3255: 3254:Paul Samuelson 3249: 3243: 3237: 3231: 3224: 3223:External links 3221: 3220: 3219: 3212: 3194:(4): 916–918. 3183: 3177: 3166: 3163: 3149: 3139: 3132: 3103: 3060: 3034:(3): 280–294. 3023: 3007: 3004: 3002: 3001: 2982: 2963: 2943: 2929:The New Yorker 2912: 2887: 2876:on 8 July 2012 2855: 2805: 2767: 2739: 2711: 2683: 2655: 2634: 2616: 2600: 2591: 2584: 2560: 2538:10.1.1.65.9446 2531:(2): 221–228. 2515: 2504: 2493: 2484: 2475: 2462: 2436: 2408: 2401: 2379: 2364: 2350: 2331: 2303: 2268: 2255: 2229: 2213: 2200: 2173: 2162:(6): 803–813. 2144: 2131:(2): 427–465. 2108: 2106: 2105: 2098: 2088:(3): 663–682. 2077: 2059: 2053:978-0471445494 2052: 2034: 2009: 1991: 1967: 1960: 1933: 1914:(2): 383–417. 1898: 1884: 1877: 1857: 1850: 1830: 1811: 1806:10.1086/294743 1784: 1769: 1728: 1711: 1696: 1681: 1655: 1628:(3): 339–353. 1605: 1578:(3): 431–451. 1546: 1514: 1505: 1483: 1477: 1451: 1438:10.1086/294632 1416: 1375: 1352: 1333:(2): 383–417. 1310: 1284: 1282: 1279: 1276: 1275: 1257: 1256: 1254: 1251: 1249: 1248: 1243: 1238: 1236:Perfect market 1233: 1228: 1223: 1218: 1213: 1208: 1203: 1198: 1192: 1190: 1187: 1158: 1155: 1146:Chicago School 1142:Richard Posner 1091: 1088: 1037:Paul Samuelson 989:Burton Malkiel 982:Charlie Munger 965:Warren Buffett 957:surmised that 925: 922: 889: 886: 806: 803: 784:Richard Thaler 782:and economist 764:overconfidence 748:Warren Buffett 740:interest rates 736:Burton Malkiel 716:(Figure 10.1, 714:Robert Shiller 705: 702: 689:Paul Samuelson 653:William Feller 649:Joseph L. Doob 645:Leonard Savage 641:Jules Regnault 625: 622: 613: 610: 600: 597: 576: 572: 568: 565: 560: 556: 551: 545: 542: 539: 535: 531: 528: 508: 507: 496: 491: 488: 485: 481: 477: 474: 471: 466: 462: 458: 455: 452: 449: 446: 441: 437: 433: 430: 416: 415: 403: 398: 395: 392: 388: 384: 379: 375: 371: 368: 363: 359: 326: 323: 320: 316: 289: 286: 283: 279: 258: 236: 232: 220: 219: 208: 205: 200: 197: 194: 190: 186: 181: 178: 175: 171: 167: 162: 159: 156: 152: 148: 143: 139: 135: 130: 126: 90: 87: 15: 9: 6: 4: 3: 2: 4501: 4490: 4487: 4485: 4482: 4480: 4477: 4476: 4474: 4459: 4456: 4454: 4451: 4449: 4446: 4444: 4441: 4439: 4436: 4434: 4431: 4429: 4426: 4424: 4421: 4419: 4416: 4414: 4411: 4409: 4406: 4404: 4401: 4399: 4396: 4394: 4391: 4389: 4388:Short selling 4386: 4384: 4381: 4379: 4376: 4374: 4371: 4369: 4366: 4364: 4361: 4359: 4356: 4354: 4351: 4349: 4346: 4344: 4341: 4339: 4336: 4334: 4331: 4329: 4326: 4324: 4321: 4319: 4316: 4314: 4311: 4309: 4306: 4304: 4301: 4299: 4296: 4294: 4291: 4288: 4285: 4283: 4280: 4278: 4277:Greenspan put 4275: 4273: 4270: 4268: 4265: 4263: 4262:Financial law 4260: 4258: 4255: 4253: 4250: 4248: 4245: 4243: 4240: 4238: 4237:Cross listing 4235: 4233: 4230: 4228: 4225: 4224: 4222: 4220:Related terms 4218: 4212: 4209: 4207: 4204: 4202: 4199: 4197: 4194: 4192: 4191:Swing trading 4189: 4187: 4184: 4182: 4179: 4176: 4173: 4170: 4167: 4165: 4162: 4160: 4159:Mosaic theory 4157: 4155: 4152: 4149: 4146: 4144: 4143:Market timing 4141: 4139: 4136: 4134: 4131: 4128: 4125: 4123: 4120: 4118: 4115: 4113: 4110: 4108: 4105: 4104: 4102: 4100: 4093: 4087: 4084: 4081: 4078: 4076: 4073: 4070: 4067: 4065: 4062: 4060: 4057: 4055: 4052: 4050: 4047: 4044: 4041: 4038: 4035: 4032: 4029: 4026: 4023: 4020: 4017: 4015: 4012: 4009: 4006: 4004: 4001: 4000: 3998: 3996: 3992: 3986: 3983: 3981: 3978: 3975: 3972: 3969: 3966: 3963: 3960: 3957: 3954: 3951: 3948: 3945: 3942: 3939: 3936: 3932: 3931:Trading hours 3929: 3927: 3924: 3923: 3922: 3919: 3918: 3916: 3912: 3906: 3903: 3899: 3896: 3895: 3894: 3891: 3889: 3886: 3884: 3881: 3879: 3876: 3874: 3871: 3867: 3864: 3862: 3859: 3858: 3857: 3854: 3852: 3849: 3847: 3846:Broker-dealer 3844: 3840: 3837: 3835: 3832: 3831: 3830: 3827: 3826: 3824: 3820: 3814: 3811: 3809: 3806: 3804: 3803:Issued shares 3801: 3799: 3796: 3795: 3793: 3791: 3790:Share capital 3787: 3781: 3778: 3776: 3773: 3771: 3768: 3766: 3763: 3761: 3758: 3757: 3755: 3753: 3748: 3742: 3741:Fourth market 3739: 3737: 3734: 3732: 3729: 3727: 3724: 3723: 3721: 3719: 3714: 3710: 3703: 3698: 3696: 3691: 3689: 3684: 3683: 3680: 3670: 3662: 3652: 3646: 3643: 3641: 3638: 3636: 3633: 3631: 3628: 3626: 3623: 3621: 3618: 3617: 3615: 3611: 3605: 3602: 3600: 3597: 3595: 3592: 3590: 3587: 3584: 3580: 3576: 3573: 3571: 3568: 3566: 3563: 3562: 3560: 3556: 3550: 3547: 3545: 3544:Open-end fund 3542: 3540: 3537: 3535: 3532: 3530: 3527: 3525: 3522: 3521: 3519: 3515: 3509: 3505: 3502: 3500: 3497: 3495: 3492: 3490: 3487: 3485: 3482: 3480: 3477: 3475: 3472: 3470: 3467: 3465: 3461: 3458: 3457: 3455: 3451: 3445: 3442: 3440: 3437: 3435: 3432: 3430: 3429:Umbrella fund 3427: 3425: 3422: 3420: 3417: 3415: 3412: 3410: 3407: 3405: 3404:Royalty trust 3402: 3399: 3396: 3393: 3390: 3388: 3385: 3383: 3380: 3378: 3375: 3373: 3370: 3368: 3367:Offshore fund 3365: 3363: 3360: 3358: 3355: 3353: 3350: 3348: 3345: 3343: 3340: 3338: 3335: 3333: 3332:Fund of funds 3330: 3327: 3324: 3321: 3318: 3315: 3312: 3311: 3309: 3307: 3299: 3295: 3288: 3283: 3281: 3276: 3274: 3269: 3268: 3265: 3259: 3256: 3253: 3250: 3247: 3244: 3241: 3238: 3235: 3232: 3230: 3227: 3226: 3217: 3213: 3209: 3205: 3201: 3197: 3193: 3189: 3184: 3182: 3178: 3175: 3171: 3167: 3164: 3162: 3161:0-393-03888-2 3158: 3154: 3150: 3147: 3146: 3140: 3137: 3133: 3129: 3125: 3121: 3117: 3113: 3109: 3104: 3100: 3096: 3091: 3086: 3082: 3078: 3074: 3070: 3066: 3061: 3057: 3053: 3049: 3045: 3041: 3037: 3033: 3029: 3024: 3022: 3021:0-440-50682-4 3018: 3014: 3010: 3009: 2997: 2993: 2986: 2978: 2974: 2967: 2960: 2956: 2953: 2947: 2931: 2930: 2925: 2919: 2917: 2908: 2904: 2899: 2891: 2875: 2871: 2870: 2865: 2859: 2844: 2840: 2836: 2832: 2828: 2824: 2820: 2816: 2809: 2800: 2796: 2792: 2788: 2784: 2780: 2779: 2771: 2756: 2755: 2750: 2743: 2728: 2727: 2722: 2715: 2700: 2699: 2694: 2687: 2672:. 7 July 2009 2671: 2670: 2665: 2659: 2652: 2648: 2644: 2638: 2630: 2626: 2620: 2614: 2610: 2604: 2595: 2587: 2581: 2577: 2573: 2572: 2564: 2556: 2552: 2548: 2544: 2539: 2534: 2530: 2526: 2519: 2513: 2508: 2502: 2497: 2488: 2479: 2472: 2466: 2450: 2446: 2440: 2425: 2424: 2419: 2412: 2404: 2398: 2394: 2390: 2383: 2375: 2368: 2360: 2354: 2346: 2342: 2335: 2320: 2319: 2314: 2307: 2299: 2295: 2291: 2287: 2283: 2279: 2272: 2265: 2259: 2244: 2240: 2237:Smith, Lisa. 2233: 2226: 2222: 2217: 2210: 2204: 2196: 2192: 2188: 2184: 2177: 2169: 2165: 2161: 2157: 2156: 2148: 2139: 2134: 2130: 2126: 2122: 2115: 2113: 2103: 2099: 2095: 2091: 2087: 2083: 2078: 2075: 2071: 2070: 2066: 2064: 2055: 2049: 2045: 2038: 2023: 2019: 2013: 2005: 2001: 1995: 1988: 1987:0-393-32535-0 1984: 1980: 1976: 1971: 1963: 1957: 1953: 1949: 1948: 1940: 1938: 1929: 1925: 1921: 1917: 1913: 1909: 1902: 1894: 1888: 1880: 1878:9781137292216 1874: 1870: 1869: 1861: 1853: 1851:9781118523162 1847: 1843: 1842: 1834: 1826: 1822: 1815: 1807: 1803: 1799: 1795: 1788: 1780: 1773: 1765: 1761: 1756: 1751: 1747: 1743: 1739: 1732: 1725: 1721: 1715: 1707: 1700: 1692: 1688: 1684: 1678: 1674: 1670: 1666: 1659: 1651: 1647: 1643: 1639: 1635: 1631: 1627: 1623: 1616: 1609: 1601: 1597: 1593: 1589: 1585: 1581: 1577: 1573: 1566: 1559: 1557: 1555: 1553: 1551: 1534: 1530: 1525: 1518: 1509: 1501: 1494: 1487: 1480: 1478:9789814566919 1474: 1470: 1466: 1462: 1455: 1447: 1443: 1439: 1435: 1431: 1427: 1420: 1412: 1408: 1403: 1398: 1394: 1390: 1386: 1379: 1371: 1367: 1363: 1356: 1348: 1344: 1340: 1336: 1332: 1328: 1321: 1319: 1317: 1315: 1299: 1295: 1289: 1285: 1272: 1268: 1262: 1258: 1247: 1244: 1242: 1239: 1237: 1234: 1232: 1229: 1227: 1224: 1222: 1219: 1217: 1214: 1212: 1209: 1207: 1204: 1202: 1199: 1197: 1194: 1193: 1186: 1184: 1180: 1176: 1172: 1168: 1164: 1154: 1152: 1147: 1143: 1138: 1136: 1135:Paul McCulley 1132: 1131: 1126: 1121: 1118: 1114: 1110: 1106: 1101: 1097: 1087: 1084: 1083:Jack Schwager 1079: 1077: 1073: 1069: 1063: 1061: 1057: 1053: 1052:Magellan Fund 1049: 1045: 1041: 1038: 1033: 1031: 1027: 1026:falsification 1022: 1018: 1013: 1009: 1005: 1004: 998: 996: 995: 990: 986: 983: 979: 974: 970: 966: 962: 960: 956: 952: 950: 946: 942: 937: 935: 931: 921: 919: 918:Robert Haugen 915: 911: 906: 904: 900: 895: 885: 882: 879: 873: 871: 867: 866:herd behavior 863: 859: 858:loss aversion 855: 851: 847: 843: 839: 835: 831: 827: 823: 815: 811: 802: 800: 796: 792: 787: 785: 781: 777: 773: 769: 765: 761: 757: 753: 749: 741: 737: 733: 729: 725: 720: 715: 710: 701: 699: 695: 690: 685: 681: 679: 674: 670: 664: 660: 658: 654: 650: 646: 642: 638: 634: 630: 621: 617: 609: 606: 605:Alfred Cowles 596: 594: 589: 574: 570: 566: 558: 554: 543: 540: 537: 533: 526: 518: 515: 513: 489: 486: 483: 479: 475: 472: 464: 460: 456: 453: 450: 447: 444: 439: 435: 431: 428: 421: 420: 419: 396: 393: 390: 386: 377: 373: 369: 366: 361: 357: 349: 348: 347: 345: 340: 324: 321: 318: 314: 305: 287: 284: 281: 277: 256: 234: 230: 198: 195: 192: 188: 184: 179: 176: 173: 169: 160: 157: 154: 150: 141: 137: 133: 128: 124: 116: 115: 114: 112: 108: 104: 99: 95: 86: 82: 80: 76: 72: 68: 64: 60: 55: 53: 47: 44: 40: 36: 32: 23: 19: 4438:Tender offer 4358:Public float 4328:Market trend 4318:Market depth 4138:Growth stock 4126: 4112:Buy and hold 4021:(Cap-to-GDP) 3861:Floor trader 3851:Market maker 3834:Floor broker 3822:Participants 3765:Golden share 3760:Common stock 3736:Third market 3630:Robo-advisor 3575:Fixed income 3569: 3506: / 3462: / 3382:Pension fund 3191: 3188:Econometrica 3187: 3173: 3169: 3152: 3142: 3135: 3114:(3): 51–55. 3111: 3107: 3072: 3068: 3031: 3028:Econometrica 3027: 3012: 2995: 2985: 2976: 2966: 2946: 2934:. 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