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He says other forms of tax cuts, such as a reduction in sales taxes and investment tax credits, e.g., in the context of Japan's "Great
Recession", are also very effective. Eggertsson infers from his analysis that the contractionary effects of labor and capital tax cuts, and the strong expansionary effect of government spending, are peculiar to the unusual environment created by zero interest rates. He asserts that with positive interest rates a labor tax cut is expansionary, per the established literature, but at zero interest rates, it reverses and tax cuts become contractionary. Further, while capital tax cuts are inconsequential in his model with a positive interest rate, they become strongly negative at zero, and the multiplier of government spending is then almost five times larger.
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overall economic health is going to worsen. Researchers at the AIA came to the conclusion that their
Architecture Billings Index is an accurate indicator of actual construction spending with on average 11 months' worth of lead time and therefore reliably leads economic downturns whenever the index severely drops below 50. For example the ABI plunged below 50 between July of 2000 and January of 2001 (and then in June of 2001 the percentage change in construction spending as compared to the prior year sank into negative growth territory) ahead of the wider crash in the US equity markets that followed.
1708:. Despite widespread predictions by economists and market analysts of an imminent recession, none had materialized by July 2024, economic growth remained steady, and a Reuters survey of economists that month found they expected the economy to continue growing for the next two years. An earlier survey of bond market strategists found a majority no longer believed an inverted curve to be a reliable recession predictor. The curve began re-steepening toward positive territory in June 2024, as it had at other points during that inversion; in every previous inversion they examined;
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monetary policy leads to inflation only. Keynesian economists have mostly adopted this analysis, modifying the theory with better integration of short and long run trends and an understanding that a change in the money supply "affects only nominal variables in the economy, such as prices and wages, and has no effect on real variables, like employment and output". The
Federal Reserve traditionally uses monetary accommodation, a policy instrument of lowering its main benchmark interest rate, to accommodate sudden supply-side shifts in the economy. When the
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in unemployment is the 'Kantro rule'. This recession indicator isn't influenced by participation rates and has an equally impressive track record as the Sahm rule going back to the early 1970s. Kantro's 10% recession rule, created by
Michael Kantrowitz, CIO of Piper Sandler, measures the year-over-year growth in unemployed persons in the U.S. workforce. When the three-month moving average of this indicator grows beyond the 10% threshold at least in the past 11 occurrences the economy has already been in recession.
2229:. Their models estimate the 12-month-ahead recession probabilities using the term spread. This yield curve spread has been found to be a valuable forecasting tool, outperforming other financial and macroeconomic indicators in predicting recessions two to six quarters ahead. An inversion of this yield curve has been successful in predicting past recessions, including those in 1973-75, and 1981-82. The Estrella and Mishkin model later also successfully predicted the recessions in the early 2000s, and the
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of economists believed that the recession may have ended. The
National Bureau of Economic Research announced on 20 September 2010 that the 2008/2009 recession ended in June 2009, making it the longest recession since World War II. Prior to the start of the recession, it appears that no known formal theoretical or empirical model was able to accurately predict the advance of this recession, except for minor signals in the sudden rise of forecasted probabilities, which were still well under 50%.
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debts they ran up in the bubble years. This would be fine if someone else were taking up the slack. But what's actually happening is that some people are spending much less while nobody is spending more—and this translates into a depressed economy and high unemployment. What the government should be doing in this situation is spending more while the private sector is spending less, supporting employment while those debts are paid down. And this government spending needs to be sustained..."
2736:. Although the collapse was larger than the one in 1929, the global economy recovered quickly, but North America still suffered a decline in lumbering savings and loans, which led to a crisis. The recession was not limited to the United States, but it also affected partnering nations such as Australia. The unemployment level increased to 10.8%, employment declined by 3.4% and the GDP also decreased as much as 1.7%. Inflation, however, was successfully reduced.
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and the longer (e.g. 10-year) Treasury yield, has in the past, been a reliable recession signal as the curve usually disinverts (or un-inverts) nearly before the recession truly appears. Based on recent history, the last four recessions, as of Q2-2024, didn’t start until the inverted curve returned to a positive reading (steepens). Further analysis shows that "the average time to recession (...) only 66 days from when the curve disinverts."
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such as employment levels and skills, household savings rates, corporate investment decisions, interest rates, demographics, and government policies (Smith, 2018; Johnson & Thompson, 2020). By examining these factors comprehensively, economists gain insights into the complex dynamics that contribute to economic downturns and can formulate effective strategies for mitigating their impact (Anderson, 2019; Patel, 2017).
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financial institutions are shrinking assets to bolster capital and improve their chances of weathering the current storm. Once again, Minsky understood this dynamic. He spoke of the paradox of deleveraging, in which precautions that may be smart for individuals and firms—and indeed essential to return the economy to a normal state—nevertheless magnify the distress of the economy as a whole."
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1200:, an independent federal agency that provides official macroeconomic and industry statistics, says "the often-cited identification of a recession with two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth is not an official designation" and that instead, "The designation of a recession is the province of a committee of experts at the National Bureau of Economic Research".
1444:) yet do not effectively stimulate the economy. In theory, near-zero interest rates should encourage firms and consumers to borrow and spend. However, if too many individuals or corporations focus on saving or paying down debt rather than spending, lower interest rates have less effect on investment and consumption behavior; increasing the money supply is like "
1836:, a shipping freight-cost index which reflects the demand for shipping capacity versus the supply of dry bulk carriers, is generally seen as a leading indicator of economic activity, because changes in the index reflect global supply and demand for commodities and raw materials used in manufacturing. A falling BDI can signal a slowdown in economic activity.
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tend to spend more rather than save if they believe inflation is on the horizon. In more technical terms, Krugman argues that the private sector savings curve is elastic even during a balance sheet recession (responsive to changes in real interest rates), disagreeing with Koo's view that it is inelastic (non-responsive to changes in real interest rates).
1412:, in which U.S. GDP fell by 46%. He argued that monetary policy was ineffective because there was limited demand for funds while firms paid down their liabilities. In a balance sheet recession, GDP declines by the amount of debt repayment and un-borrowed individual savings, leaving government stimulus spending as the primary remedy.
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According to economists, since 1854, the U.S. has encountered 32 cycles of expansions and contractions, with an average of 17 months of contraction and 38 months of expansion. From 1980 to 2018 there were only eight periods of negative economic growth over one fiscal quarter or more, and four periods
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for policy analysis, writes that cutting taxes on labor or capital is contractionary under certain circumstances, such as those that prevailed following the economic crisis of 2008, and that temporarily increasing government spending at such times has much larger effects than under normal conditions.
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Monetarist economists have argued that objectives of monetary policy, i.e., controlling the money supply to influence interest rates, are best achieved by targeting the growth rate of the money supply. They maintain that money may affect output in the short term but that in the long run, expansionary
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would raise investment, thereby making workers more productive and raising output and wages. Investment patterns in the United States through 2019, however, indicated that the supply-side incentives of the TCJA had little effect on investment growth. Although investments increased after 2017, much of
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contraction: The GDP measures a country's economic output, all goods and services a country produces. GDP provides a good insight into what has already been taking place in the economy. A contraction in GDP, especially if it occurs for two consecutive quarters, is a strong indicator of a recession as
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appear to be more useful to predict a recession ahead of time than other variables, no single variable has proven to be an always reliable predictor whether recessions will actually (soon) appear, let alone predicting their sharpness and severity in terms of duration. The longest and deepest
Treasury
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Excessive levels of indebtedness or the bursting of a real estate or financial asset price bubble can cause what is called a "balance sheet recession". This occurs when large numbers of consumers or corporations pay down debt (i.e., save) rather than spend or invest, which slows the economy. The term
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economists uses only the 10-year/three-month spread. The
Estrella and Mishkin model is a well-known approach for predicting U.S. recessions. This model primarily uses the yield curve, specifically the spread between long-term and short-term interest rates, as a predictor. This method has been widely
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in the stock market, specifically strong shifts in investment from leading more volatile sectors like consumer cyclicals and consumer discretionary (as well as e.g. biotechnology) to more stable sectors such as utilities and consumer staples (as well as e.g. telecommunications) can signal increasing
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9-12 months ahead. The ABI is a survey send each month by the AIA to several hundreds of architecture firms. The index can be used to predict a recession. The index is centered around a value of 50. Below 50 means there is a high likelihood that construction spending will decrease and that therefore
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Six other employment-based recession indicators are: 1) new claims for unemployment (8-week smoothing of 26-week change) larger than 60.000. 2) Continuing claims for unemployment (percent change year-over-year) larger 21%. 3) Employed part-time due to economic reasons (percent change year-over-year)
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wrote that the term "refers also to the sense of trust we have in each other, our sense of fairness in economic dealings, and our sense of the extent of corruption and bad faith. When animal spirits are on ebb, consumers do not want to spend and businesses do not want to make capital expenditures or
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A December 2008 report from the
National Bureau of Economic Research stated that the U.S. had been in a recession since December 2007, when economic activity peaked, based on several measures including job losses, declines in personal income, and declines in real GDP. By July 2009, a growing number
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A November 2008 report from the
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia based on the survey of 51 forecasters, suggested that the recession started in April 2008 and would last 14 months. They projected real GDP declining at an annual rate of 2.9% in the fourth quarter and 1.1% in the first quarter of
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Although the US economy grew in the first quarter by 1%, by June 2008 some analysts stated that due to a protracted credit crisis and "rampant inflation in commodities such as oil, food, and steel", the country was nonetheless in a recession. The third quarter of 2008 brought on a GDP retraction of
2705:: 1975, 1982, 1991 and 2009. All of them only lasted one year, although the third would have lasted three years (1991–1993) if IMF as criteria had used the normal exchange rate weighted per‑capita real World GDP rather than the purchase power parity weighted per‑capita real World GDP.
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In April 2009, IMF had changed their Global recession definition to "A decline in annual per‑capita real World GDP (purchasing power parity weighted), backed up by a decline or worsening for one or more of the seven other global macroeconomic indicators: Industrial production, trade, capital
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can indicate that a recession may be on the horizon as it has historically often preceded economic downturns with lead times ranging from several months to over a year. Especially the disinversion, a move back into positive territory for the spread between the shorter (e.g. 3-month or 2-year) yield
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Jobs market contraction: The 'Perkins rule', created by GlobalData TS Lombard managing director Dario
Perkins, triggers when payrolls are declining. Commonly when the Sahm rule produces a recession warning signal the Perkins rule has already triggered. Another jobs market indicator measuring a rise
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A July 2012 survey of balance sheet recession research reported that consumer demand and employment are affected by household leverage levels. Both durable and non-durable goods consumption declined as households moved from low to high leverage with the decline in property values experienced during
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when faced with a balance sheet recession would be appropriate. However, Krugman argued that monetary policy could also affect savings behavior, as inflation or credible promises of future inflation (generating negative real interest rates) would encourage less savings. In other words, people would
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in 1973, caused partially by the oil crisis happening in that same year, which brought inflation at a 13% increase. Economic recession hit by the middle of the year 1974, with no change in policy enacted by the government as a measure to counter the economic situation of the country. Consequently,
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for new private housing units. Residential investment contains information that is particularly useful for predicting recessions when compared by what is captured by standard leading indicators such as the term spread. And it is especially useful for the prediction of recessions for countries with
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There are various trucking indices, most notably the Cass Freight Index, which measures monthly freight activity across all domestic freight modes in North America. Other trucking indices are the FreightWaves National Truckload Index (NTI), the FTR Trucking Conditions Index (TCI), the ACT For-Hire
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loop for more than a year. A process of balance sheet deleveraging has spread to nearly every corner of the economy. Consumers are pulling back on purchases, especially durable goods, to build their savings. Businesses are cancelling planned investments and laying off workers to preserve cash. And
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to encourage borrowing, Japanese corporations in aggregate opted to pay down their debts from their own business earnings rather than borrow to invest as firms typically do. Corporate investment, a key demand component of GDP, fell enormously (22% of GDP) between 1990 and its peak decline in 2003.
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A recession encompasses multiple attributes that often occur simultaneously and encompasses declines in component measures of economic activity, such as GDP, including consumption, investment, government spending, and net export activity. These summary measures are indicative of underlying drivers
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in the U.S. grew to 8.5% in March 2009, and there were 5.1 million job losses by March 2009 since the recession began in December 2007. That was about five million more people unemployed compared to just a year prior, which was the largest annual jump in the number of unemployed persons since the
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By this measure, six periods since 1970 qualify: 1974–1975, 1980–1983, 1990–1993, 1998, 2001–2002, and 2008–2009. During what IMF in April 2002 termed the past three global recessions of the last three decades, global per capita output growth was zero or negative, and IMF argued—at that time—that
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There are many reasons why recessions happen. One overall reason can be lack of demand due to sharp developments in the prices of the inputs used in producing goods and services. Another main reason can be problems e.g. in financial markets. Because recessions have many likely explanations, it is
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The European Union, akin to the NBER's methodology, has embraced a definition of recession that integrates GDP alongside a spectrum of macroeconomic indicators, including employment and various other metrics. This approach allows for a comprehensive assessment of the depth and breadth of economic
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saw private consumption fall for the first time in nearly 20 years. This indicated the depth and severity of the recession. With consumer confidence so low, economic recovery took a long time. Consumers in the U.S. were hit hard by the Great Recession, with the value of their houses dropping and
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NBER has sometimes declared a recession before a second quarter of GDP shrinkage has been reported, but beginnings and endings can also be declared over a year after they are reckoned to have occurred. In 1947, NBER did not declare a recession despite two quarters of declining GDP, due to strong
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were paying down debts and unable to carry the U.S. economy as they had previously: "The root of our current troubles lies in the debt American families ran up during the Bush-era housing bubble...highly indebted Americans not only can't spend the way they used to, they're having to pay down the
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Keynes showed that if somehow the level of aggregate demand could be triggered, possibly by the government printing currency notes to employ people to dig holes and fill them up, the wages that would be paid out would resuscitate the economy by generating successive rounds of demand through the
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According to research by the U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics, the Transportation Services Index (TSI) is a leading indicator of economic cycles. It tracks the movement of freight and passengers to provide insights into the broader economic conditions. Both TSI index components lead the
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of the beginning a recession. Usually, the signal happens in the three months of the recession. The CFNAI Diffusion Index signal tends to happen about one month before a related signal by the CFNAI-MA3 (3-month moving average) drops below the −0.7 level. The CFNAI-MA3 correctly identified the 7
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Behavior that may be optimal for an individual (e.g., saving more during adverse economic conditions) can be detrimental if too many individuals pursue the same behavior, as ultimately, one person's consumption is another person's income. Too many consumers attempting to save (or pay down debt)
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Official economic data shows that a substantial number of nations were in recession as of early 2009. The US entered a recession at the end of 2007, and 2008 saw many other nations follow suit. The US recession of 2007 ended in June 2009 as the nation entered the current economic recovery. The
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For the last three of these recessions, the NBER decision has approximately conformed with the definition involving two consecutive quarters of decline. While the 2001 recession did not involve two consecutive quarters of decline, it was preceded by two quarters of alternating decline and weak
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The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago developed the ROC Threshold Index (ROC means receiver operating characteristic). It combines multiple leading indicators to predict recessions. It has shown better predictive ability than individual indicators up to 11 months ahead. And it also significantly
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Indicators of chemical activity provide a longer lead time compared to other economic indicators. Tracking chemical activity as an index can lead by two to fourteen months, with an average lead of eight months at cycle peaks and four months at cycle troughs, according to the American Chemistry
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or monetary policies by the government, which are contractionary in nature: A contractionary policy is a tool usually used to tame rising inflation. Excessive use of tightening policies, e.g. too rapid increases in interest rates, can reduce demand and consumer spending for goods and services,
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U.S. employers shed 63,000 jobs in February 2008, the most in five years. Former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan said on 6 April 2008 that "There is more than a 50 percent chance the United States could go into recession." On 1 October, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that an
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Growing shifts in labor market internals to part-time work signals increasing weakness in the economy as normally part-time jobs rise and full-time jobs decrease as a share of employment before a recession takes hold. As an indicator this can be measured simply using the ratio of part-time to
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Summary: Why recessions happen is a complex phenomena often resulting from a interplay of various factors. While these factors can individually contribute to a recession, the cumulative impact of several occurring simultaneously can significantly amplify the negative effect on the economy.
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the subprime mortgage crisis. Further, reduced consumption due to higher household leverage can account for a significant decline in employment levels. Policies that help reduce mortgage debt or household leverage could therefore have stimulative effects (Smith & Johnson, 2012).
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derives from an accounting identity that holds that assets must always equal the sum of liabilities plus equity. If asset prices fall below the value of the debt incurred to purchase them, then the equity must be negative, meaning the consumer or corporation is insolvent. Economist
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The long-term spread: The spread between a shorter-term rate (like the three-month Treasury yield) and 10-year U.S. bond yields. The long-term Treasury yield spread has been particularly effective at predicting recessions many months in advance, achieving an AUC (Area Under the
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Japanese firms overall became net savers after 1998, as opposed to borrowers. Koo argues that it was massive fiscal stimulus (borrowing and spending by the government) that offset this decline and enabled Japan to maintain its level of GDP. In his view, this avoided a U.S. type
1618:: Artificially low interest rates can encourage excessive borrowing and result in a buildup of risk in the financial sector. When interest rates rise, these investments (like new constructions in real estate) may fail, exacerbate economic declines, contributing to a recession.
1176:(NBER) is generally seen as the authority for dating US recessions. The NBER, a private economic research organization, defines an economic recession as: "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in
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Both indices (BDI and DJTA) serve as barometers for economic health and are considered to be leading economic indicators but from different perspectives. The BDI focuses on global trade and commodity demand, while the DJTA reflects domestic transportation activity in the
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larger 16%. 4) Unemployed more than 15 weeks (percent change from 12-month low) larger 30%. 5) Temporary help services (percent change year-over-year) smaller -2%. 6) Aggregate hours worked, production and non-supervisory employees (6-month percent change) smaller 0%.
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The full impact of a recession on employment may not be felt for several quarters. After recessions in Britain in the 1980s and 1990s, it took five years for unemployment to fall back to its original levels. Employment discrimination claims rise during a recession.
1980:: Declines in consumer sentiment and confidence can signal a recession. These measures reflect consumers' outlook on the economy and their willingness to spend, which drives economic activity. A drop in consumer confidence often precedes reduced consumer spending.
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demanding to predict them. Some variables might at first glance be the causes of recessions, but they could also be the results of a recession, which means they are endogenous to recessions. One can summarize the causes of recessions in the following categories:
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In July 2022, the NBER released a statement regarding declaring a recession following a second consecutive quarter of shrinking GDP, "There is no fixed rule about what measures contribute information to the process or how they are weighted in our decisions".
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Sausage sales: Heightened appetites for sausages might be a harbinger of a looming economic downturn, because sausages are a cheaper protein substitute for other higher-priced meat products, a reaction by shoppers when times are tough experts call the “trade
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Average weekly hours in manufacturing. Firms tend to react to worsening business cycle circumstances by lowering hours worked before laying off workers, according to Glosser and Golden (1997). This popular indicator leads industrial production by two to four
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can cause widespread disruptions in critical sectors in supply chains and disrupt economic activity, reduce productivity, increase costs, affect confidence and thereby diminish economic activity, leading to decreased spending and investment and finally
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Financial market problems: Issues in financial markets, such as rapid credit expansion. When households accumulate excessive debt and later face difficulties in meeting their obligations, they cut back on consumption, leading to a decrease in economic
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was only one manifestation of a broader problem of excessive debt—that it was a so-called "balance sheet recession". In Krugman's view, such crises require debt reduction strategies combined with higher government spending to offset declines from the
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hit, it didn't take long before we were in a recession. The recession, in turn, deepened the credit crunch as demand and employment fell, and credit losses of financial institutions surged. Indeed, we have been in the grips of precisely this adverse
2685:(IMF), "Global recessions seem to occur over a cycle lasting between eight and 10 years." The IMF takes many factors into account when defining a global recession. Until April 2009, IMF several times communicated to the press, that a global annual
1196:". The NBER also explains that: "a recession begins when the economy reaches a peak of activity and ends when the economy reaches its through." The NBER is considered the official arbiter of recession start and end dates for the United States. The
1898:: A enlarging unemployment rate with rising initial claims for unemployment insurance indicate weakening labor market conditions, which can be a precursor to a recession. This indicator leads industrial production by two to three months. Also see
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Sahm Recession Indicator signals the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate (U3) rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to the minimum of the three-month averages from the previous 12
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Growing unemployment rate as measured by the initial claims for unemployment insurance (indicated by a constant enduring year-over-year increase in the three-week average of unemployment insurance initial claims), which are reported by the
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found that only two of the sixty recessions around the world during the 1990s had been predicted by a consensus of economists one year earlier, while there were zero consensus predictions one year earlier for the 49 recessions during 2009.
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during a recession. In other words, unemployment never reaches 0%, so it is not a negative indicator of the health of an economy, unless it exceeds the "natural rate", in which case the excess corresponds directly to a loss in the GDP.
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The type and shape of recessions are distinctive. In the US, v-shaped, or short-and-sharp contractions followed by rapid and sustained recovery, occurred in 1954 and 1990–1991; U-shaped (prolonged slump) in 1974–1975, and W-shaped, or
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Australia next went into recession in March 2020, due to the impact of huge bush fires and the COVID-19 pandemic's effect on tourism and other important aspects of the economy. This recession, while steep, only lasted until May 2020.
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Credit conditions like credit spreads. The spread between corporate bonds and U.S. Treasuries is important. If the spread between corporate and government debt increases, this could signal that private sector lending is becoming
1843:
contains railroads, shipping companies, air freight carriers, marine transportation, delivery services, and logistics companies. The performance of transportation stocks can predict trends in the broader market, according to the
2176:(includes some of the above indicators). The LEI's lead time is six to seven months. The Conference Board’s leading index is highly accurate in the near term, one to three months ahead (accomplishing an AUC value of 0.97).
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also described a "paradox of deleveraging" as financial institutions that have too much leverage (debt relative to equity) cannot all de-leverage simultaneously without significant declines in the value of their assets.
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For example, economist Richard Koo wrote that Japan's "Great Recession" that began in 1990 was a "balance sheet recession". It was triggered by a collapse in land and stock prices, which caused Japanese firms to have
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Low industrial output and sales: During economic downturns, companies reduce production to minimize risk. This leads to lower industrial output and sales, which can signal an impending recession, because it causes a
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by making necessities like transportation and housing costlier. This will tend to constrict spending for non-essential goods and services. Once the recession occurs, commodity prices will usually reset to a lower
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and credit and debt issues: Overextension of credit and accumulation of risky debt can lead to financial crises. When borrowers (e.g. corporations) default, it can cause a cascade of business failures and reduced
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policies to stimulate exports and reduce imports are other techniques to stimulate demand. He estimated in March 2010 that developed countries representing 70% of the world's GDP were caught in a liquidity trap.
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1798:. As fewer goods are produced, lesser resources like labor, equipment and raw materials are required. As industrial output falls this sooner or later leads to a cutback in hiring as well as a surge in layoffs.
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declared that nine US states were in a recession. In November 2008, employers eliminated 533,000 jobs, the largest single-month loss in 34 years. In 2008, an estimated 2.6 million U.S. jobs were eliminated.
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rather than invest. Such expectations can create a self-reinforcing downward cycle, bringing about or worsening a recession. Consumer confidence is one measure used to evaluate economic sentiment. The term
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In terms of financial indicators - A significant increase in loan defaults or a tightening of credit conditions by financial institutions, leading to a decrease in business investment and consumer spending.
2513:, Siegel mentions that since 1948, ten recessions were preceded by a stock market decline, by a lead time of 0 to 13 months (average 5.7 months), while ten stock market declines of greater than 10% in the
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The near-term forward spread: This is the difference between the market expectation of the interest rate on a three-month Treasury bill six quarters in the future and the current three-month Treasury bill
6492:
Using the U.S. Treasury Yield Curve to predict S&P 500 returns and U.S. recessions | Theodore Gregory Hanks | Pennsylvania State University, Schreyer Honors College Department of Finance | Spring 2012
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The Atlanta Fed offers a GDPnow model, which estimates changes in real GDP growth by aggregating 13 subcomponents that make up GDP. GDPnow can provide a timelier gauge of the current state of the economy.
1544:: A widespread drop in spending, known as an adverse demand shock, can lead to recessions. This can be triggered by various events, including the bursting of economic bubbles (see economic bubbles below).
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Global spillover effects: Recessions in one part of the world can have spillover effects on other economies due to global interconnectedness. For example, economic troubles in Europe can impact the U.S.
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experienced a recession in 2012: the economies of the 17-nation region failed to grow during any quarter of the 2012 calendar year. The recession deepened during the final quarter of the year, with the
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An administration generally gets credit or blame for the state of the economy during its time in office; this state of affairs has caused disagreements about how particular recessions actually started.
2662:. The loss of a job is known to have a negative impact on the stability of families, and individuals' health and well-being. Fixed income benefits receive small cuts which make it tougher to survive.
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Basic industrial chemicals like chlorine, alkalies, pigments and plastic resins are positioned early in the supply chain. This early position allows to identify emerging turning points in the economy.
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Producer Price Index (PPI) by Industry: General Freight Trucking Index. These indices are essential for understanding the dynamics of the trucking industry and predicting future market conditions.
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Chemical activity also includes data on hours worked in chemicals, chemical company stock data, publicly sourced chemical price information, end-use chemical industry sales-to-inventories.
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As a result of late 1920s profit issues in agriculture and cutbacks, 1931–1932 saw Australia's biggest recession in its entire history. It fared better than other nations that underwent
2189:. This index contains the real oil price, well permits, initial claims for unemployment insurance, Texas stock index, help-wanted index and average weekly hours worked in manufacturing.
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flows, oil consumption, unemployment rate, per‑capita investment, and per‑capita consumption." By this new definition, a total of four global recessions took place since
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Plunging underwear sales: During the global financial crisis, men's underwear sales dropped significantly, mirroring reduced consumer spending and causing former Federal Reserve head
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can also signal a recession. As consumers cut back on spending, businesses may respond by reducing production and laying off workers, creating a cycle that can lead to a recession.
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Over the years, some commentators dropped most of Shiskin's "recession-spotting" criteria for the simplistic rule-of-thumb of a decline in real GNI for two consecutive quarters.
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between firms rises sharply. The fall in productivity could also be attributed to several macro-economic factors, such as the loss in productivity observed across the UK due to
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The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) and its nonfinancial leverage subindex can be used as leading indicators to predict a recession.
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contraction that occurs when there is a period of broad decline in economic activity. Recessions generally occur when there is a widespread drop in spending (an adverse
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Rising corporate debt can foreshadow a bear market, notably when businesses go ahead with taking on more debt, despite having diminishing sales and dwindling earnings.
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high home-ownership rates. Research results strongly suggest that recession predictability of leading indicators is improved, when residential investment is included.
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5091:
1638:: Euphoria and speculative borrowing as well as unsustainable financial practices eventually result in economic downturns. A Minsky Moment marks the point at which
1612:: Restrictions on credit availability also known as credit crunch, can reduce consumer spending and business investment, leading to a slowdown in economic activity.
7167:
6529:
3886:
8041:
4324:
1774:
Measuring manufacturing output against business demand (new orders plus backlog minus inventory) as a composite index for U.S. economic activity, using data from
9401:
7796:
5328:"2 recession indicators with perfect track records show the US just entered a downturn — opening the door for stocks to plummet as the Fed gets set to cut rates"
1140:
suggested that a rough translation of the bureau's qualitative definition of a recession into a quantitative one that almost anyone can use might run like this:
2225:, uses the difference between the yields on 10-year Treasury bonds and 3-month Treasury bills, as detailed in their research papers and working papers for the
1218:
4061:
2527:
Since the business cycle is very hard to predict, Siegel argues that it is not possible to take advantage of economic cycles for timing investments. Even the
8301:
7826:
6715:
3649:
1527:: A sudden increase in the prices of key inputs (input price shock) can lead to higher production costs and reduced aggregate demand, triggering a recession.
1322:
Recessions have psychological and confidence aspects. For example, if companies expect economic activity to slow, they may reduce employment levels and save
2233:
of 2007-2009. Moreover, a negative spread has historically preceded each U.S. recession since the 1950s, according to The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
1161:
In terms of diffusion – A decline in non-agricultural employment in more than 75% of industries, as measured over six-month spans, for six months or longer.
9391:
7906:
1337:
1088:, a recession is defined as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the market, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real
5594:
5415:
8156:"Real GDP First-Quarter 2008 Preliminary Estimate :: Brent Meyer :: Economic Trends :: 06.03.08 :: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland"
7578:
7096:
6632:
6412:
5265:
4619:
5811:
5359:"Sahm Rule is picking up on something that's 'very worrisome' - New Century Advisors chief economist Claudia Sahm weighs in on the Fed's next rate move"
776:
9381:
7217:
6846:
4540:
2992:
0.5%, the biggest decline since 2001. The 6.4% decline in spending during Q3 on non-durable goods, like clothing and food, was the largest since 1950.
2721:. The nation also benefited from greater productivity in manufacturing, facilitated by trade protection, which also helped with lessening the effects.
2045:
curve) value of 0.89 at 14 months ahead. And it is the best predictor at a horizon of 16 to 20 months ahead, when compared to other leading indicators.
1628:
period and accumulation of financial risks during good economic times creates a asset bubble, followed by continued sharp declines in asset prices, a (
1024:
4687:
4570:
4154:
2104:, as measured e.g. by the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI), may increase before recessions, which usually hinders
1782:(Empire Manufacturing, Philadelphia, Kansas City, Richmond, Dallas) indices, has been a reliable recession indicator during the last eight recessions.
1302:
in 1949 and 1980–1982. Japan's 1993–1994 recession was U-shaped and its 8-out-of-9 quarters of contraction in 1997–1999 can be described as L-shaped.
9386:
5327:
3457:
3418:
5990:
8656:
8516:
6560:
3993:
2123:
Significant declines in stock prices can reflect investor pessimism about future economic conditions and can be a leading indicator of a recession.
1879:
Business sector profits. Declining corporate earnings over successive quarters can signal economic trouble and the risk of a potential bear market.
1210:
are generally defined as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth, as measured by the seasonal adjusted quarter-on-quarter figures for
861:
8132:
7517:
3595:
7373:
7321:
6202:
5437:
Neves, Pedro Cunha; Afonso, Óscar; Silva, Sandra Tavares (February 2016). "A Meta-Analytic Reassessment of the Effects of Inequality on Growth".
2144:
1973:
1771:
A decline in manufacturing activities and new orders for consumer and capital goods can signal reduced business investment and economic slowdown.
1229:
8485:
8155:
8084:
6565:
5377:
4940:
4123:
3851:
7239:
3912:
8222:
7134:
6044:
4092:
1998:
1712:
analysts found the curve had re-steepened before a recession began. The following variables and indicators are used by economists, like e.g.
8010:
7480:
5552:
5522:
5211:
5140:
3572:
8899:
8524:
7398:
6485:
6367:
6127:
4800:
4571:"Wall Street starts 2017 with tailwind | By Juergen Buettner | 4 January 2017 | Chart 1: Consumer Confidence Index and Historically Shocks"
3700:
1908:
Swelling unemployment rate, specifically a unemployment rate rising above its 36-month moving average is a cause for concern, according to
7553:
3800:
7958:
5648:
3317:
6387:
6013:
5620:
Are Aastveit, Knut; Anundsen, André K.; Herstad, Eyo I. (October–December 2019). "Residential investment and recession predictability".
9259:
9206:
7011:
5484:
4771:
1145:
7635:
7422:
4971:
3350:
1263:, although some argue that their causes and cures can be different. As an informal shorthand, economists sometimes refer to different
5782:
4595:
9117:
8724:
3276:
2774:
1724:
The U.S. Conference Board's Present Situation Index year-over-year change turns negative by more than 15 points before a recession.
1207:
8729:
8520:
8065:
7260:
5679:
5114:
3065:
2952:
2872:
2796:
2732:
Another recession came at the beginning of the 1990s as the result of a major stock collapse in October 1987, referred to now as
2270:
of the national unemployment rate (U3) rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to its low during the previous 12 months.
2212:, the model developed by economist Jonathan H. Wright, uses yields on 10-year and three-month Treasury securities as well as the
7979:
1415:
Krugman discussed the balance sheet recession concept in 2010, agreeing with Koo's situation assessment and view that sustained
9095:
8827:
8822:
8817:
8811:
8181:
7348:
6340:
Ulatan, Jeffrey (3 July 2020). "2020 Recession Signals, After US-Iran Airstrike. Vanguard ETF Best Performing Funds for 2020".
4642:"Seeking Alpha | Take Me To Your Leader: Analyzing The Latest Leading Indicators | by −1.9% | 24 September 2019"
4332:
3970:
3763:
3622:
2624:, could be another example, since they disrupt the global supply chain or prevent the movement of goods, services, and people.
2463:
2406:. Strategies favored for moving an economy out of a recession vary depending on which economic school the policymakers follow.
1624:: Unsustainable rapid increases in asset prices due to excessive risk-taking, characterized by exaggerated optimism during the
395:
171:
6262:
6104:
5831:
5234:
3379:
9100:
8629:
7766:
7447:
7193:
7080:
6829:
6800:
6773:
6744:
5900:
5698:
5052:
4305:
4268:
4252:
4197:
4036:
3945:
3741:
3138:
1852:
can signal potential early economic weakness if transportation stocks are underperforming while industrial stocks are rising.
997:
8105:
6633:"'Something has been changing': Why a top economist is still worried about a recession even as the US economy keeps growing"
6590:
Lihn, Stephen H. T. (10 August 2019). "Real-time Recession Probability with Hidden Markov Model and Unemployment Momentum".
4655:
9348:
7736:
6075:
4641:
2967:
2528:
2226:
1346:
hire people." Behavioral economics has also explained many psychological biases that may trigger a recession including the
1173:
854:
17:
7684:
2438:
investment. For example, the Trump administration claimed that lower effective tax rates on new investment imposed by the
7709:
5083:
3530:
2129:
measuring of stock market volatility. A high VIX indicates increased market stress, which can precede economic downturns.
7290:
7157:
6521:
6439:"Forecasting of recessions via dynamic probit for time series: replication and extension of Kauppi and Saikkonen (2008)"
5033:
3878:
2724:
The economy had gone into a brief recession in 1961 because of a credit squeeze. Australia was facing a rising level of
9244:
8392:
8245:
8033:
7451:
6817:
6697:
6438:
6195:"A 'Big Data' View of the U.S. Economy: Introducing the Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes – Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago"
4656:"Background on the Chicago Fed National Activity Index | Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago | 19 September 2019"
2864:
2552:
987:
532:
380:
7788:
1632:), which can lead to a cascade of business failures, significant recessions and worst case depressions and stagnation.
8452:
7930:
3835:
2256:
2042:
1010:
7872:
6232:
2524:
market also usually weakens before a recession. However, real estate declines can last much longer than recessions.
2240:
and initial jobless claims. U.S. unemployment index is defined as the difference between the 3-month average of the
2182:, research indicates that the ALI can lead turning points in the business cycle by approximately five to six months.
9090:
8457:
8293:
4745:
4053:
2244:
and the 12-month minimum of the unemployment rate. Unemployment momentum and acceleration with Hidden Markov model.
2217:
1840:
473:
7818:
9308:
8515:
8417:
2940:
1920:
full-time employment (with the year-over-year change crossing into negative territory as recession risk warning).
1775:
1155: ; a 15% decline in non-agricultural employment; a two-point rise in unemployment to a level of at least 6%.
847:
7898:
5937:
Dwyer, Gerald P.; Devereux, John; Baier, Scott; Tamura, Robert (2013). "Recessions, growth and banking crises".
9042:
8201:
5407:
1902:
indicator below in the overview of recession indicators, which tracks the momentum in the U3 unemployment rate.
7092:
6404:
4615:
4177:
2801:
1248:
wrote that under ideal conditions, a country's economy should have the household sector as net savers and the
1204:
downturns, enabling policymakers to devise more effective strategies for economic stabilization and recovery.
9070:
8786:
7073:
Stocks for the Long Run: The Definitive Guide to Financial Market Returns and Long-Term Investment Strategies
6613:
4527:
4450:
3075:
2693:
because of the opposite being found for 2001, the economic state in this year by itself did not qualify as a
2439:
2260:
2241:
2237:
2186:
1727:
The U.S. Conference Board Leading Economic Indicator year-over-year change turns negative before a recession.
1705:
1642:
investors are forced to sell off assets to cover their debts, leading to a rapid decline in asset prices and
578:
385:
7287:"Recession Britain: New ESRC report on the impact of recession on people's jobs, businesses and daily lives"
7214:
4488:
1341:, was the first economist to claim that such emotional mindsets significantly affect the economy. Economist
8952:
4574:
4146:
2996:
2009. These forecasts represented significant downward revisions from the forecasts of three months prior.
2956:
2608:
tends to fall in the early stages of a recession, then rises again as weaker firms close. The variation in
2585:
2564:
2514:
2415:
1849:
517:
505:
5297:"A reliable labor-market recession indicator has triggered — but this time it could be bullish for stocks"
4842:
1860:
Trucking Index, the American Trucking Associations' Truck Tonnage Index, the DAT Trendlines index and the
9266:
9048:
8980:
6929:"How Effective is Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound? Identification Through Industry Heterogeneity"
5982:
3010:
2682:
2205:
outperformed other measures at leading recession forecasts with a range of six to nine months in advance.
2173:
2120:
Lowering of asset prices, such as homes and financial assets, or high personal and corporate debt levels.
2021:
1963:
1944:
1744:
1197:
1078:
931:
407:
237:
161:
89:
8128:
7848:
Blake, Aaron (28 July 2022). "What two negative GDP quarters means for 'recession' – and our politics".
9323:
9298:
9153:
9148:
9107:
9075:
8862:
8780:
7509:
7365:
7313:
4972:"The "bloodbath" in America's trucking industry has officially spilled over to the rest of the economy"
2064:
1895:
1861:
1134:
992:
527:
510:
390:
31:
8159:
6322:
6285:
6194:
6150:
5881:
5862:
5763:
5717:
5575:
5465:
5163:
4921:
4902:
4823:
4451:"Recessions are difficult, but stagnant growth could prove more challenging, Stanford economist warns"
3205:
2198:
The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis posts the Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities (RECPROUSM156N).
1905:
Growing labor market weakness as indicated by a negative three-month average of U.S. nonfarm payrolls.
9343:
9333:
9080:
8323:
8081:
6552:
4115:
3855:
3312:
2717:, but their poor economic states influenced Australia, which depended on them for export, as well as
2004:
Tumbling sales in durable consumer goods, like e.g. new car sales (light vehicles unit retail sales).
1977:
1969:
1441:
878:
412:
7474:"World Economic Outlook (WEO) April 2013: Statistical appendix – Table A1 – Summary of World Output"
7395:
7247:
6902:
6876:
2179:
9233:
9021:
8218:
6928:
5266:"The Sahm Rule has flashed, but there's a simpler recession indicator investors should be watching"
3908:
2960:
2780:
2621:
2020:
Non-residential construction spending (like e.g. offices and industrial plants) as measured by the
1535:
1499:
1453:
1383:
601:
566:
402:
8002:
7126:
6052:
2443:
the increase was a response to oil prices, and investment in other sectors had negligible growth.
2195:
The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis posts the Weekly Economic Index (Lewis-Mertens-Stock) (WEI).
1700:
yield curve inversion in history began in July 2022, as the Federal Reserve sharply increased the
9454:
9338:
9328:
9318:
9313:
9303:
9183:
9178:
9173:
8694:
7473:
7225:
5544:
5514:
5203:
5182:
5132:
4880:
4084:
3937:
Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology Drives the Economy, and Why It Matters for Global Capitalism
2509:
2459:
1367:
1328:
571:
493:
488:
460:
43:
6680:
6503:
6483:
6364:
6124:
4797:
4541:
Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Consumer Confidence: A Useful Indicator of … the Labor Market?
2779:
The most recent recession to affect the United Kingdom was the 2020 recession attributed to the
9085:
9015:
8847:
7542:
5919:
4469:
4431:
4412:
4393:
4374:
4355:
3804:
3553:
3161:
3025:
2714:
2581:
2137:
1464:
or other techniques in which money is effectively printed to purchase assets, thereby creating
1347:
1260:
1108:
901:
803:
554:
370:
365:
350:
317:
176:
7950:
6761:
6734:
6595:
4295:
3307:
9449:
9271:
9254:
9249:
9238:
9201:
9196:
9190:
8801:
8770:
8668:
8327:
6790:
4024:
3935:
3819:
2895:
2889:
2883:
2544:
2473:
wrote in December 2010 that significant, sustained government spending was necessary because
2192:
The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago posts updates of the Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (BBKI).
1259:
A severe (GDP down by 10%) or prolonged (three or four years) recession is referred to as an
1185:
1152:
982:
911:
643:
618:
522:
455:
181:
144:
122:
117:
7003:
6946:
6045:"The latest US recession indicator just dropped — and it's a banger (Prepare for the wurst)"
8837:
8682:
4054:"Does He Pass the Test? 'Stress Test: Reflections on Financial Crises' by Timothy Geithner"
3496:
3340:
3055:
2813:
2394:
2209:
2053:
1991:
1696:
1299:
1066:
561:
375:
220:
8:
9444:
8936:
8791:
8699:
8651:
8619:
8600:
8347:"Pattern of Macroeconomic Indicators Preceding the End of an American Economic Recession"
8346:
7850:
7162:
3045:
3040:
2924:
economic activity reported for employment, industrial production, and consumer spending.
2733:
2718:
2609:
2588:
which, when subtracted from the actual rate of unemployment, can be used to estimate the
2580:
Unemployment is particularly high during a recession. Many economists working within the
2481:
2435:
2427:
2399:
2221:
adopted and is considered robust. The model, developed by economists Arturo Estrella and
2013:
1675:
1468:
expectations that cause savers to begin spending again. Government stimulus spending and
1461:
1457:
1445:
1221:(OECD) defines a recession as a period of at least two years during which the cumulative
1148:
for two consecutive quarters; a decline in industrial production over a six-month period.
771:
648:
483:
445:
186:
149:
4550:
Jason Bram, Robert Rich, and Joshua Abel ... Conference Board's Present Situation Index
3284:
1538:). Monetary policy changes can influence both the frequency and intensity of recessions.
608:
9421:
9406:
9396:
9376:
9371:
9366:
9361:
9355:
8673:
8641:
8447:
7054:
6984:
6466:
4737:
4214:
3718:
Jiří, Mazurek. "On some issues concerning definition of an economic recession." (2012).
3111:
3090:
2913:
2635:
2448:
2213:
2141:
it reflects reduced economic activity, lower consumer demand, and decreased employment.
1639:
1629:
1563:
1280:
1276:
1272:
1268:
1129:
723:
450:
417:
355:
8443:
8062:
7109:
A downturn in the property market, especially in turnover (sales) of properties, is a
4858:
9142:
9136:
9130:
8736:
8709:
8646:
8634:
8595:
8564:
8462:
8366:
7076:
7046:
6976:
6825:
6796:
6769:
6740:
6591:
6470:
6458:
5737:"The near-term forward yield spread as a leading indicator: A less distorted mirror,"
5633:
4301:
4248:
4241:
4193:
4032:
3941:
3831:
3737:
3465:
3426:
3387:
3035:
2984:
2105:
1984:
1951:
1739:
Except for the above, there are no known completely reliable predictors. Analysis by
1483:
1460:
as liquidity traps. One remedy to a liquidity trap is expanding the money supply via
1342:
1225:
reaches at least 2% of GDP, and the output gap is at least 1% for at least one year.
964:
926:
798:
786:
743:
588:
583:
307:
232:
7345:
6988:
4741:
4213:
Correia, Isabel; Farhi, Emmanuel; Nicolini, Juan Pablo; Teles, Pedro (August 2012).
3962:
3774:
2484:
believed that government institutions could stimulate aggregate demand in a crisis:
658:
9223:
9218:
9064:
9053:
8714:
8704:
8614:
8574:
8569:
8544:
8539:
8535:
8358:
6966:
6958:
6450:
6345:
6254:
5950:
5946:
5744:
5629:
5450:
5446:
4854:
4729:
4189:
4185:
3227:
3085:
3060:
2676:
2659:
2647:
2628:
2531:(NBER) takes a few months to determine if a peak or trough has occurred in the US.
2452:
2403:
2280:
Table: Overview of predictive recession indicators with a simple threshold at zero
2222:
2084:
1909:
1833:
1740:
1659:
1579:
1416:
1409:
1292:
1264:
1249:
1104:, a recession is defined as negative economic growth for two consecutive quarters.
1092:, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales." The
1070:
1054:
959:
954:
921:
906:
886:
733:
718:
244:
215:
203:
193:
129:
109:
79:
74:
8345:
Keilis-Borok, V. I.; Soloviev, A. A.; Intriligator, M. D.; Winberg, F. E. (2008).
7762:
7189:
6168:
5964:
5358:
4843:"Average work hours as a leading economic variable in US manufacturing industries"
3255:
3179:
2455:, the government resorts to unconventional monetary policy to stimulate recovery.
1735:
recessions between March 1967 – August 2019, while triggering only 2 false alarms.
9292:
9282:
9032:
8973:
8968:
8962:
8554:
8205:
8101:
8088:
8069:
7998:
7986:
7934:
7429:
7402:
7352:
7267:
7221:
6609:
6489:
6391:
6371:
6111:
5817:
4602:
4547:
4493:
3116:
2933:
2901:
2784:
2762:
2419:
2411:
2402:
favor the use of expansionary macroeconomic policy during recessions to increase
2230:
2113:
1940:
1779:
1765:
Manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders.
1717:
1621:
1583:
1396:
1112:
1062:
835:
738:
698:
678:
544:
345:
340:
335:
302:
274:
134:
8431:
7314:"More Workers Complain of Bias on the Job, a Trend Linked to Widespread Layoffs"
1730:
When the CFNAI Diffusion Index drops below the value of −0.35, then there is an
1562:
factors that can cause a recession are plentiful: Besides credit risk like e.g.
8581:
8559:
7680:
7662:
6454:
3596:"The economy may look like it's in recession, but we still don't know for sure"
3070:
2758:
2754:
2474:
2267:
2266:
Sahm Recession Indicator signals the start of a recession when the three-month
2162:
1701:
1643:
1595:
1591:
1575:
1559:
1433:
1388:
1351:
1137:
1097:
1093:
1046:
793:
708:
703:
360:
210:
166:
84:
59:
51:
8479:
7713:
3674:
628:
9438:
9009:
9003:
8994:
8988:
8930:
8921:
8912:
8894:
8883:
8871:
8841:
8663:
8370:
7050:
6980:
6462:
6076:"Is a recession coming? Alan Greenspan says the answer is in men's underwear"
5748:
4557:
3469:
3430:
3391:
3015:
2831:
2822:
2689:
growth of 3.0% or less in their view was "equivalent to a global recession".
2560:
2556:
1795:
1709:
1635:
1625:
1615:
1609:
1571:
1530:
1440:
theory that a situation can develop in which interest rates reach near zero (
1400:
1374:
1355:
1332:
1169:
1116:
1085:
916:
728:
713:
688:
673:
668:
663:
638:
633:
297:
259:
156:
8384:
5378:"Stock Market Crash: Expert Warns of 70% Potential Downside for S&P 500"
4941:"Stock Market Crash: Expert Warns of 70% Potential Downside for S&P 500"
4733:
4616:"Gundlach: We don't see a recession on the horizon. But there's bad news..."
4524:"10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity"
4523:
3909:"The Conference Board – Consumer Confidence Survey Press Release – May 2010"
1399:, meaning their assets were worth less than their liabilities. Despite zero
8753:
8746:
8741:
8610:
8605:
8549:
6716:"United States Professional and Business Services: Temporary Help Services"
3030:
2729:
the unemployment level rose and the trade deficit increased significantly.
2702:
2655:
2605:
2548:
2470:
2252:
1713:
1647:
1541:
1524:
1495:
1487:
1469:
1465:
1449:
1404:
1379:
1310:
and South-east Asia experienced U-shaped recessions in 1997–1998, although
1193:
1058:
1050:
823:
748:
693:
653:
440:
312:
279:
269:
227:
104:
99:
30:
This article is about a slowdown in economic activity. For other uses, see
8474:
8466:
7927:
7865:
7355:
Kenneth Rogoff, International Monetary Fund, Financial Times, 5 April 2002
6875:
Jahan, Sarwat; Mahmud, Ahmed Saber; Papageorgiou, Chris (September 2014).
6303:
5595:"Conference Board Leading Economic Index: Continued to Trend Down in June"
3994:"Psychological Biases and Errors that led to historic bubbles and crashes"
2638:
in the United States in the 1930s may have extended the Great Depression.
1695:
Recessions are very challenging to predict. While some variables like the
9163:
8719:
8678:
8624:
8470:
6820:. In MacLean, Brian K.; Bougrine, Hassan; Rochon, Louis-Philippe (eds.).
6350:
6323:"Which Leading Indicators Have Done Better at Signaling Past Recessions?"
6286:"Which Leading Indicators Have Done Better at Signaling Past Recessions?"
6224:
6151:"Which Leading Indicators Have Done Better at Signaling Past Recessions?"
5882:"Which Leading Indicators Have Done Better at Signaling Past Recessions?"
5863:"Which Leading Indicators Have Done Better at Signaling Past Recessions?"
5764:"Which Leading Indicators Have Done Better at Signaling Past Recessions?"
5718:"Which Leading Indicators Have Done Better at Signaling Past Recessions?"
5576:"Which Leading Indicators Have Done Better at Signaling Past Recessions?"
5466:"Which Leading Indicators Have Done Better at Signaling Past Recessions?"
5164:"Which Leading Indicators Have Done Better at Signaling Past Recessions?"
4922:"Which Leading Indicators Have Done Better at Signaling Past Recessions?"
4903:"Which Leading Indicators Have Done Better at Signaling Past Recessions?"
4824:"Which Leading Indicators Have Done Better at Signaling Past Recessions?"
3717:
3280:
3080:
3050:
2521:
2431:
1599:
1567:
1552:
1253:
1245:
1181:
753:
264:
249:
7058:
7034:
6432:
6430:
1943:
less transfer payments. Real median household income is reported by the
8947:
8385:"Business Cycle Dating Committee, National Bureau of Economic Research"
8344:
8072:
6 April 2009. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Retrieved 10 March 2020.
7503:
7501:
6971:
5983:"Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey - Comments from survey respondents"
5649:"Forecasting The Next Recession Using The Architectural Billings Index"
4715:"Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables as Leading Indicators"
4714:
3345:
2976:
2589:
2567:
in the 1960s, said that "I call it a Reagan-Volcker-Carter recession."
2407:
1845:
1587:
1222:
683:
613:
549:
500:
5408:"Income and wealth inequality make recessions worse, research reveals"
5038:
U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics
2975:
additional 156,000 jobs had been lost in September. On 29 April 2008,
1868:
business cycles since 1979 by an average of approximately four months.
8758:
8590:
8586:
7980:
Recession unlikely if US economy gets through next two crucial months
6662:
6427:
3734:
The Holy Grail of Macroeconomics-Lessons from Japan's Great Recession
3501:
3020:
2725:
2458:
Gauti B. Eggertsson of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, using a
2423:
2248:
2101:
1899:
1437:
1382:
wrote in 2014 that "the best working hypothesis seems to be that the
1307:
1189:
1038:
781:
623:
139:
94:
8362:
8198:
7937:
Dr. Richard J. Buczynski and Michael Bright, IBISWorld, January 2009
7498:
3818:
Kaur, Rajwant; Sidhu, A.S. (Spring 2012). Sarkar, Siddhartha (ed.).
2547:
is thought to have been caused by the tight-money policy adopted by
2075:
Business confidence surveys and expectations for business condition.
1314:'s eight consecutive quarters of decline should be termed L-shaped.
1077:). There is no official definition of a recession, according to the
6962:
6762:"Monetarism and Friedman's Restatement of Quantity Theory of Money"
6437:
Park, Byeong U.; Simar, Léopold; Zelenyuk, Valentin (15 May 2019).
4215:"Unconventional Fiscal Policy at the Zero Bound: Working Paper 698"
4085:"Presentation by Richard Koo – The Age of Balance Sheet Recessions"
2749:
2686:
2651:
2617:
2507:
Some recessions have been anticipated by stock market declines. In
1826:
1822:
1504:
1311:
1211:
1177:
1107:
Governments usually respond to recessions by adopting expansionary
1074:
6384:
6014:"Increased sausage demand could be worrying signal on the economy"
4688:"Grim Stock Signals Piling Up as Wall Street Mulls Recession Odds"
3764:"The world in balance sheet recession: causes, cure, and politics"
2809:
7928:
Economic Crisis: When will it End? IBISWorld Recession Briefing "
6125:"The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S."
5053:"Why the inverted yield curve is typically a recession predictor"
4798:"The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S."
4556:
This article incorporates text from this source, which is in the
3134:
Encarta World English Dictionary [North American Edition]
2634:, with a negative impact on the wider economy; the suspension of
1252:
as net borrowers, with the government budget nearly balanced and
7448:"Global Recession Risk Grows as U.S. "Damage" Spreads. Jan 2008"
7093:"From the subprime to the terrigenous: Recession begins at home"
7035:"Anatomy of the Financial Crisis: Between Keynes and Schumpeter"
6847:"Searching for supply-side effects of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act"
6681:"The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S."
4840:
3852:"Key Indicators 2001: Growth and Change in Asia and the Pacific"
7341:
7339:
7113:
indicator of recession, with a lead time of up to 9 quarters...
3707:. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. 2008.
3526:
2631:
2613:
1671:
1650:, who theorized that financial markets are inherently unstable.
1101:
830:
7866:"Determination of the December 2007 Peak in Economic Activity"
5743:. 2018–055. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
3801:"What is the difference between a recession and a depression?"
3180:"Business Cycle Dating Committee Announcement January 7, 2008"
2495:
Anatomy of the Financial Crisis: Between Keynes and Schumpeter
1972:, confidence surveys like the index of consumer expectations (
8185:
7819:"Business Cycle Dating Procedure: Frequently Asked Questions"
7396:"IMF Predicts Slower World Growth Amid Serious Market Crisis"
5034:"Research Confirms Transportation Index as Leading Indicator"
4510:"US yield curve nears flip with jury out on recession signal"
1962:
Decline in wholesale/retail sales, which are reported by the
1323:
1303:
422:
198:
7789:"Business Cycle Dating Committee Announcement July 19, 2021"
7336:
6868:
5901:"Predicting a Bear Market: 7 Signs and Why it's Tough to Do"
5699:"Predicting a Bear Market: 7 Signs and Why it's Tough to Do"
3623:"What exactly is a recession? Sorting out a confusing topic"
6822:
Aggregate Demand and Employment: International Perspectives
5783:"Yield curve disinversion is the recession signal to watch"
5619:
3820:"Global Recession and Its Impact on Foreign Trade in India"
3573:"'Technical Recession' Sets Up Washington War of the Words"
3197:
2451:
reaches the boundary of an interest rate of 0%, called the
1933:
1762:
Manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials.
1751:
However, the following are considered possible predictors:
8001:; Andrews, Edmund L.; Labaton, Stephen (6 December 2008).
7871:. NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee. 11 December 2008.
7543:"World Economic Outlook – April 2009: Crisis and Recovery"
2117:
market uncertainty and that a recession is on the horizon.
2083:
The value of debit balances in broker-dealers’ securities
1790:
Factory output, including factories, mines, and utilities.
7394:
Lall, Subir. International Monetary Fund, 9 April 2008.
6947:"What Fiscal Policy Is Effective at Zero Interest Rates?"
5820:
JPMorgan | The US Economic Outlook | Feb. 2020 | Page 22]
4243:
The Return of Depression Economics and the Crisis of 2008
4212:
2126:
2095:
1663:
1089:
8268:"Fourth quarter 2008 Survey of Professional Forecasters"
7712:. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Archived from
6733:
Stiglitz, Joseph E.; Ocampo, José Antonio, eds. (2008).
6304:"Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)"
5936:
4772:"Leading Economic Indicators and the Oncoming Recession"
2067:
deficit typically worsens strongly ahead of a recession.
1848:, which says that a divergence between the DJTA and the
8270:. Philadelphiafed.org. 17 November 2008. Archived from
7997:
7681:"UK officially in recession for first time in 11 years"
6874:
6818:"Chapter 1: Macroeconomic lessons from the past decade"
6449:(1). Springer Science and Business Media LLC: 379–392.
3341:"An economist explains: What to know about a recession"
2654:
are less affected by recessions than those who rely on
1476:
8246:"U.S. Economy Contracts Most Since the 2001 Recession"
7289:. Economic and Social Research Council. Archived from
6894:
5832:"Jeffrey Gundlach: 6 Signs Recession Is Near, or Here"
5735:
Engstrom, Eric C.; Sharpe, Steven A. (February 2019).
5235:"Jeffrey Gundlach: 6 Signs Recession Is Near, or Here"
4712:
1670:
Decline in external demand: For countries with strong
1219:
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
1117:
increasing government spending and decreasing taxation
1053:). This may be triggered by various events, such as a
7583:, Australian Bureau of Statistics, 27 February 1998,
6792:
Bucking The Deficit: Economic Policymaking In America
6105:
Leading Economic Indicators Suggest U.S. In Recession
5485:"An Economic Warning Sign: RV Shipments Are Slipping"
3650:"Yes, there is an official definition of a recession"
2971:
their pension savings decimated on the stock market.
2559:
took office. Reagan supported that policy. Economist
1335:
factors underlying economic activity. Keynes, in his
1113:
increasing money supply and decreasing interest rates
8003:"U.S. Loses 533,000 Jobs in Biggest Drop Since 1974"
7270:
p. 1. The Saylor Foundation. Retrieved 20 June 2012.
6502:
Estrella, Arturo; Mishkin, Frederic S. (June 1996).
5920:"Recession: When Bad Times Prevail - Back to Basics"
4470:"Recession: When Bad Times Prevail - Back to Basics"
4432:"Recession: When Bad Times Prevail - Back to Basics"
4413:"Recession: When Bad Times Prevail - Back to Basics"
4394:"Recession: When Bad Times Prevail - Back to Basics"
4375:"Recession: When Bad Times Prevail - Back to Basics"
4356:"Recession: When Bad Times Prevail - Back to Basics"
3876:
3675:"Recession | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)"
3554:"Recession: When Bad Times Prevail - Back to Basics"
3162:"Recession: When Bad Times Prevail - Back to Basics"
1871:
Light truck sales are seen as a recession predictor.
1720:, to try to predict the possibility of a recession:
1338:
The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money
8182:"Fragile economy improves but not out of woods yet"
7358:
6726:
6504:"The Yield Curve as a Predictor of U.S. Recessions"
4319:
4317:
3495:Lakshman, Achuthan; Banerji, Anirvan (7 May 2008).
2805:
Recessions in the United States – 1930 through 2021
2616:, which may create a mini-recession in the region.
2373:
Retail Indicator: Decline In Wholesale/Retail Sales
2165:
to see men’s underwear as a key economic predictor.
1658:Adverse events: Unexpected major world events like
7704:
7702:
6845:Gale, William G.; Haldeman, Claire (6 July 2021).
4489:"Why everyone was so wrong about the 2023 economy"
4240:
3991:
3927:
3419:"U.S. to Broaden the Base Of Consumer Price Index"
2434:economists promote tax cuts to stimulate business
2098:is a critical commodity input for many industries.
1646:. This term is named after the American economist
8091:CNN/Money. 3 April 2009. Retrieved 10 March 2020.
6901:Jahan, Sarwat; Papageorgiou, Chris (March 2014).
6900:
6838:
6436:
4287:
4206:
2912:Since then, the NBER has also declared a 2-month
9436:
7537:
7535:
7450:. Bloomberg L.P. 28 January 2008. Archived from
7158:"Recession Predictions and Investment Decisions"
6561:Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
5436:
4325:"A Minsky Meltdown: Lessons for Central Bankers"
4314:
4220:. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. p. 1
3306:Bonham, Mark S.; Poulin, Jessica (6 July 2023).
2627:Recessions have also provided opportunities for
8294:"Text of the NBER's statement on the recession"
7699:
6938:
6877:"What Is Keynesian Economics? – Back to Basics"
6501:
4596:Consumer Confidence Drops – Why Does It Matter?
4269:"How Much of the World is in a Liquidity Trap?"
3934:Akerlof, George A.; Shiller, Robert J. (2010).
3494:
2783:global pandemic, the first recession since the
1974:University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
1494:In April 2009, U.S. Federal Reserve Vice Chair
1486:and can cause or deepen a recession. Economist
6920:
6732:
5829:
5734:
5232:
5190:New York University's Stern School of Business
4888:New York University's Stern School of Business
4329:Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco speeches
4169:
3933:
2012:Housing starts and construction, specifically
8501:
7532:
6782:
6736:Capital Market Liberalization and Development
6225:"Weekly Economic Index (Lewis-Mertens-Stock)"
5917:
4467:
4429:
4410:
4391:
4372:
4353:
4293:
4184:. Palgrave Macmillan UK. pp. 7929–7936.
3811:
3551:
3159:
3137:. Microsoft Corporation. 2007. Archived from
2356:Employment Indicator: Temporary Help Services
2185:The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas posts the
1534:leading to a recession (creating a so called
1286:
1172:, the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the
1018:
855:
8219:"Gross Domestic Product: Third quarter 2008"
7663:"Eurozone recession deepened at end of 2012"
7612:, Melbourne, 2 December 2006, archived from
6844:
6663:"U.S. 10 Year-3 Month Treasury Yield Spread"
6394:(March 2006). FEDs Working Paper No. 2006-7.
4271:. Krugman.blogs.nytimes.com. 17 March 2010.
4232:
4147:"Debt, deleveraging, and the liquidity trap"
3701:"OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2008 Issue 2"
3641:
3527:"Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions"
3305:
3271:
3269:
2322:Leading Indicator: US Leading Economic Index
2174:Index of Leading (Economic) Indicators (LEI)
1146:Declines in real gross national income (GNI)
7418:
7416:
7414:
7412:
7410:
7284:
7095:. Land Values Research Group. 2 June 2009.
6522:"Labor Model Predicts Lower Recession Odds"
5830:Wisenberg Brin, Dinah (11 September 2024).
5233:Wisenberg Brin, Dinah (11 September 2024).
4294:Lipsey, Richard G.; Harbury, Colin (1992).
3824:International Journal of Afro-Asian Studies
3798:
3727:
3725:
3648:Loe, Megan; Lewis, Brandon (28 July 2022).
3521:
3519:
1978:Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index
1151:In terms of depth – A 1.5% decline in real
8508:
8494:
8480:Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions
7026:
7004:"Opinion – Block Those Economic Metaphors"
6944:
6809:
6753:
6411:. Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 2020.
5965:"GDPNow - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta"
5939:Journal of International Money and Finance
4175:
3940:. Princeton University Press. p. 23.
3757:
3755:
3753:
3458:"Recession: Some Criteria Missing, So Far"
2963:significantly contributed to a recession.
2943:details the many elements of this period.
2339:Employment Indicator: Full Time Employment
2305:Yield Curve Indicator: 10y-3m Yield Spread
2187:Texas Index of Leading Economic Indicators
2008:Housing and non-residential construction:
1361:
1025:
1011:
862:
848:
8031:
7737:"It's official: Recession since Dec. '07"
7423:Global Economic Slump Challenges Policies
7285:Vaitilingam, Romesh (17 September 2009).
6970:
6926:
6553:"Direct Stimulus Payments to Individuals"
6385:The Yield Curve and Predicting Recessions
6349:
5918:Claessens, Stijn; Kose, M. Ayhan (2011).
5051:Smith, Stacey Vanek (12 September 2024).
4841:Stuart M. Glosser, Lonnie Golden (1997).
4507:
4468:Claessens, Stijn; Kose, M. Ayhan (2011).
4430:Claessens, Stijn; Kose, M. Ayhan (2011).
4411:Claessens, Stijn; Kose, M. Ayhan (2011).
4392:Claessens, Stijn; Kose, M. Ayhan (2011).
4373:Claessens, Stijn; Kose, M. Ayhan (2011).
4354:Claessens, Stijn; Kose, M. Ayhan (2011).
3817:
3736:. John Wiley & Sons (Asia) Pte. Ltd.
3552:Claessens, Stijn; Kose, M. Ayhan (2011).
3266:
3160:Claessens, Stijn; Kose, M. Ayhan (2011).
1096:has adopted a similar definition. In the
8482:The National Bureau Of Economic Research
7765:. BBC News – Business. 29 October 2009.
7466:
7407:
7280:
7278:
7276:
6788:
6405:"The Yield Curve as a Leading Indicator"
6073:
6042:
5780:
5294:
4448:
4300:. Oxford University Press. p. 294.
4182:The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics
4016:
3722:
3647:
3620:
3529:. National Bureau of Economic Research.
3516:
2808:
2800:
2775:List of recessions in the United Kingdom
1674:sectors, a decline in demand from major
1317:
8351:Journal of Pattern Recognition Research
8243:
8126:
7948:
7734:
7640:, Australian Broadcasting Corporation,
7311:
7124:
7001:
6945:Eggertsson, Gauti B. (1 January 2011).
6824:. Edward Elgar Publishing. p. 29.
6308:FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
6259:FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
6255:"Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities"
6229:FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
6011:
5898:
5741:Finance and Economics Discussion Series
5696:
5375:
5325:
5081:
4938:
4238:
4144:
4113:
4051:
3960:
3911:. Conference-board.org. 25 March 2010.
3750:
3667:
3377:
3066:List of recessions in the United States
2953:United States housing market correction
2797:List of recessions in the United States
2388:
2255:, was published in October 2019 by the
1999:personal consumption expenditure growth
1841:Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA)
1511:
14:
9437:
8328:"Daniel Gross: The Recession is Over?"
7710:"Percent change from preceding period"
7442:
7440:
7438:
7312:Rampell, Catherine (11 January 2011).
7238:Church, George J. (23 November 1981).
7237:
6903:"What Is Monetarism? – Back to Basics"
6339:
6320:
6283:
6148:
5879:
5860:
5842:from the original on 17 September 2024
5761:
5715:
5677:
5646:
5573:
5463:
5245:from the original on 17 September 2024
5180:
5161:
5112:
5094:from the original on 13 September 2024
5084:"How Bad Is The U.S. Economy In 2019?"
5063:from the original on 13 September 2024
4919:
4900:
4878:
4821:
4769:
4622:from the original on 25 September 2019
3961:Shiller, Robert J. (27 January 2009).
3792:
3570:
3338:
1945:U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
1778:(Manufacturing Services, Chicago) and
1498:discussed these paradoxes: "Once this
1057:, an external trade shock, an adverse
172:Measures of national income and output
8489:
8441:
8322:
8304:from the original on 14 November 2010
8244:Chandra, Shobhana (30 October 2008).
8153:
7858:
7847:
7633:
7559:from the original on 31 December 2010
7520:from the original on 28 February 2019
7507:
7376:from the original on 21 February 2009
7273:
7155:
7032:
6815:
6759:
6643:from the original on 1 September 2024
5930:
5659:from the original on 29 November 2022
5482:
5418:from the original on 13 December 2019
5388:from the original on 1 September 2024
5356:
5050:
5014:from the original on 13 December 2019
4951:from the original on 1 September 2024
4082:
4029:Reader's Guide to the Social Sciences
3973:from the original on 11 February 2020
3877:Samuelson, Robert J. (14 June 2010).
3250:
3248:
998:Industrialization in the Soviet Union
8034:"U.S. lost 2.6 million jobs in 2008"
7909:from the original on 7 December 2017
7896:
7587:from the original on 16 October 2015
7196:from the original on 2 February 2008
6768:. S. Chand Publishing. p. 527.
6698:"United States Full Time Employment"
6589:
6550:
6508:The Federal Reserve Bank of New York
5622:International Journal of Forecasting
4982:from the original on 8 February 2020
4847:International Journal of Forecasting
4605:Forbes. 27 June 2019. Brad McMillan.
4486:
4064:from the original on 5 November 2015
4022:
3879:"Our economy's crisis of confidence"
3762:Koo, Richard C. (12 December 2011).
3455:
3416:
2529:National Bureau of Economic Research
2276:Simple Recession Indicator Tracker:
2227:National Bureau of Economic Research
2060:The S&P 500 and BBB bond spread.
1477:Paradoxes of thrift and deleveraging
1174:National Bureau of Economic Research
8225:from the original on 14 August 2018
8135:from the original on 6 October 2013
8108:from the original on 6 October 2009
8032:Uchitelle, Louis (9 January 2009).
7961:from the original on 11 August 2019
7951:"Employment Falls for Second Month"
7949:Andrews, Edmund L. (7 March 2008).
7743:from the original on 14 August 2021
7687:from the original on 12 August 2020
7435:
7075:, 3rd, New York: McGraw-Hill, 388.
7014:from the original on 20 August 2019
6927:Skaperdas, Arsenios (7 July 2017).
6630:
6532:from the original on 19 August 2020
6086:from the original on 29 August 2024
6024:from the original on 29 August 2024
5993:from the original on 29 August 2024
5969:The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
5793:from the original on 30 August 2024
5555:from the original on 24 August 2024
5525:from the original on 24 August 2024
5376:Edwards, William (31 August 2024).
5338:from the original on 29 August 2024
5307:from the original on 29 August 2024
5276:from the original on 27 August 2024
5263:
5214:from the original on 24 August 2024
5143:from the original on 24 August 2024
4969:
4939:Edwards, William (31 August 2024).
4690:. Bloomberg L.P. 25 November 2018.
4335:from the original on 5 January 2013
3761:
3731:
3681:. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2022
3593:
3378:Shiskin, Julius (1 December 1974).
3353:from the original on 14 August 2024
3320:from the original on 23 August 2024
1850:Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA)
24:
8812:British credit crisis of 1772–1773
8158:. Clevelandfed.org. Archived from
7878:from the original on 19 April 2009
7799:from the original on 26 April 2022
7735:Isidore, Chris (1 December 2008).
7190:"Economy puts Republicans at risk"
7127:"Why Home Prices May Keep Falling"
7125:Shiller, Robert J. (6 June 2009).
7002:Krugman, Paul (13 December 2010).
6571:from the original on 31 March 2020
6130:from the original on 4 August 2024
6074:Goodkind, Nicole (26 March 2022).
6043:Ashworth, Louis (27 August 2024).
5987:The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
5601:from the original on 4 August 2024
5326:Edwards, William (3 August 2024).
4803:from the original on 4 August 2024
4778:from the original on 4 August 2024
4722:Review of Economics and Statistics
4618:Yahoo! Finance. 14 February 2019.
4508:Barbuscia, Davide (29 July 2024).
4449:Cochrane, John (7 December 2022).
4275:from the original on 24 April 2020
4157:from the original on 21 April 2021
4145:Krugman, Paul (18 November 2010).
4126:from the original on 15 April 2021
3992:How to be an Adult (13 May 2020).
3889:from the original on 26 March 2020
3497:"The risk of redefining recession"
3417:Dale, Edwin L. Jr (6 April 1974).
3398:from the original on 25 March 2020
3245:
3208:from the original on 29 April 2022
2946:
2857: Effective Federal Funds Rate
2517:were not followed by a recession.
2426:economists may advocate increased
2169:Overview of recession indicators:
988:Economic history of the Arab world
25:
9466:
8525:Commonwealth of Nations countries
8453:Concise Encyclopedia of Economics
8411:
8395:from the original on 2 March 2021
8127:Goldman, David (9 January 2009).
8082:2 million jobs lost so far in '09
8044:from the original on 1 March 2020
8013:from the original on 9 April 2009
7829:from the original on 29 July 2022
7769:from the original on 28 July 2020
7366:"The world economy Bad, or worse"
7324:from the original on 23 July 2016
7170:from the original on 28 July 2020
7156:Sloan, Allan (11 December 2007).
7099:from the original on 12 June 2009
6235:from the original on 19 July 2021
5647:Mackie, Kevin (7 December 2018).
5483:Raice, Shayndi (19 August 2019).
4751:from the original on 6 April 2020
4694:from the original on 4 March 2020
4004:from the original on 28 July 2020
3915:from the original on 3 March 2020
3629:from the original on 27 July 2022
3602:from the original on 28 July 2022
3533:from the original on 5 March 2020
3476:from the original on 27 July 2022
3437:from the original on 27 July 2022
3220:
3190:
2768:
2743:
2650:of people dependent on wages and
2641:
2180:Euro Area Leading Indicator (ALI)
2153:Unorthodox Recession Indicators:
2043:Receiver Operating Characteristic
2022:Architecture Billings Index (ABI)
1427:
1232:instead of decline of total GDP.
8458:Library of Economics and Liberty
8377:
8338:
8316:
8286:
8260:
8237:
8211:
8192:
8184:. Yahoo! Finance. Archived from
8174:
8154:Meyer, Brent (16 October 2008).
8147:
8120:
8094:
8075:
8056:
8025:
7991:
7973:
7942:
7921:
7897:Izzo, Phil (20 September 2010).
7890:
7841:
7811:
7781:
7755:
7728:
7673:
7655:
7644:from the original on 3 June 2020
7627:
7598:
7571:
7486:from the original on 25 May 2013
7388:
7305:
7254:
7231:
7208:
7182:
7149:
7137:from the original on 3 July 2020
7118:
7085:
7065:
6995:
6708:
6690:
6673:
6655:
6624:
6602:
6583:
6544:
6514:
6495:
6477:
6415:from the original on 14 May 2017
6397:
6377:
6358:
6333:
6314:
6296:
6277:
6247:
6217:
6205:from the original on 28 May 2020
6187:
6161:
6142:
6117:
6098:
6067:
6036:
6012:Harring, Alex (26 August 2024).
6005:
5975:
5957:
5911:
5892:
5873:
5854:
5823:
5805:
5774:
5755:
5728:
5709:
5634:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2018.09.008
5592:
5495:from the original on 8 June 2020
5357:Payne, Charles (7 August 2024).
5082:Conerly, Bill (15 August 2019).
4668:from the original on 14 May 2020
4551:
4487:Peck, Emily (22 December 2023).
4114:Krugman, Paul (17 August 2010).
4083:White, Gregory (14 April 2010).
3963:"Animal Spirits Depend on Trust"
3621:Jacobsen, Louis (26 July 2022).
3456:Silk, Leonard (28 August 1974).
3339:Deveau, Denise (3 August 2022).
2916:for February 2020 – April 2020.
2790:
2534:
2218:Federal Reserve Bank of New York
2079:Margin of stock market traders:
1208:Recessions in the United Kingdom
829:
817:
58:
8521:recessions in the United States
8129:"Worst year for jobs since '45"
8063:Unemployment rate in March 2009
7224:Prepared by: Democratic staff,
6631:Fox, Matthew (31 August 2024).
6610:"Sahm Rule Recession Indicator"
6365:Grading Bonds on Inverted Curve
6327:Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
6290:Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
6265:from the original on 2 May 2020
6155:Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
5886:Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
5867:Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
5781:McGeever, Jamie (5 June 2024).
5768:Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
5722:Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
5690:
5671:
5640:
5613:
5586:
5580:Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
5567:
5537:
5507:
5476:
5470:Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
5457:
5430:
5400:
5369:
5350:
5319:
5295:Adinolfi, Joseph (7 May 2024).
5288:
5264:Fox, Matthew (26 August 2024).
5257:
5226:
5196:
5174:
5168:Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
5155:
5125:
5106:
5075:
5044:
5026:
4994:
4963:
4932:
4926:Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
4913:
4907:Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
4894:
4872:
4834:
4828:Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
4815:
4790:
4763:
4713:A Estrella, FS Mishkin (1995).
4706:
4680:
4648:
4634:
4608:
4589:
4563:
4534:
4516:
4501:
4480:
4461:
4442:
4423:
4404:
4385:
4366:
4347:
4261:
4247:. W.W. Norton Company Limited.
4138:
4107:
4095:from the original on 5 May 2021
4076:
4045:
3985:
3954:
3901:
3870:
3844:
3830:(1). Universal-Publishers: 62.
3711:
3693:
3614:
3587:
3564:
3545:
3488:
3449:
3410:
3371:
3365:
3332:
3256:"Q&A: What is a recession?"
2941:timeline of the Great Recession
2575:
2570:
2502:
2497:, Economic and Political Weekly
1896:U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
1862:U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
8102:"Employment Situation Summary"
7634:Janda, Michael (3 June 2020),
7580:Australian Economic Indicators
7346:The Recession that Almost Was.
6173:Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
5951:10.1016/j.jimonfin.2013.05.009
5899:Schmidt, Dan (17 April 2024).
5697:Schmidt, Dan (17 April 2024).
5451:10.1016/j.worlddev.2015.10.038
4190:10.1057/978-1-349-95189-5_2482
4052:Krugman, Paul (10 July 2014).
3571:Anstey, Chris (28 July 2022).
3299:
3228:"The CEPR and NBER Approaches"
3172:
3153:
3124:
3117:Merriam-Webster.com Dictionary
3104:
2236:The three-month change in the
1890:Decreasing payroll employment.
1331:has been used to describe the
1122:
777:Publications in macroeconomics
13:
1:
8199:Why it's worse than you think
7899:"Recession Over in June 2009"
7763:"US economy out of recession"
7606:"Reasons for 1990s Recession"
7039:Economic and Political Weekly
6614:Federal Reserve Economic Data
4859:10.1016/S0169-2070(96)00725-X
4528:Federal Reserve Economic Data
4297:First Principles of Economics
4176:Eggertsson, Gauti B. (2018).
4027:. In Michie, Jonathan (ed.).
3799:Saul Eslake (November 2008).
3097:
3076:Stock market crashes in India
2927:
2440:Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017
2261:Federal Reserve Economic Data
2216:. Another model developed by
1690:
1662:and geopolitical events like
1482:simultaneously is called the
1235:
7510:"What's a Global Recession?"
7508:Davis, Bob (22 April 2009).
6551:Sahm, Claudia (6 May 2019).
3277:"Glossary of Treasury terms"
2957:United States housing bubble
2708:
2586:natural rate of unemployment
2565:Council of Economic Advisers
2515:Dow Jones Industrial Average
1228:Recession can be defined as
7:
9267:1997 Asian financial crisis
8900:Civil War-era United States
8442:Moore, Geoffrey H. (2002).
7683:. The BBC. 12 August 2020.
6739:. OUP Oxford. p. 360.
5924:International Monetary Fund
5183:"Business-Cycle Indicators"
5002:"Cass Freight Index Report"
4881:"Business-Cycle Indicators"
4474:International Monetary Fund
4436:International Monetary Fund
4417:International Monetary Fund
4398:International Monetary Fund
4379:International Monetary Fund
4360:International Monetary Fund
4025:"Accounting, balance sheet"
3771:Real-World Economics Review
3558:International Monetary Fund
3166:International Monetary Fund
3011:1991 Indian economic crisis
3003:
2851: 3 month Treasury Bond
2839: 10 Year Treasury Bond
2683:International Monetary Fund
2600:
2410:, exemplified by economist
1745:International Monetary Fund
1198:Bureau of Economic Analysis
10:
9471:
9043:Post–World War I recession
8863:Post-Napoleonic Depression
7071:Siegel, Jeremy J. (2002).
6951:NBER Macroeconomics Annual
6789:Thornton, Saranna (2018).
6455:10.1007/s00181-019-01708-2
3594:Cox, Jeff (28 July 2022).
2931:
2896:March 2001 – November 2001
2845: 2 Year Treasury Bond
2816:correlation to recessions
2794:
2772:
2674:
2665:
2430:to spark economic growth.
2392:
2263:(FRED). It is defined as:
2214:Fed's overnight funds rate
2145:GDP per capita contraction
1391:as it pays down its debt.
1365:
1290:
1287:Type of recession or shape
1135:Bureau of Labor Statistics
993:Economy of the Inca Empire
528:New neoclassical synthesis
511:Real business-cycle theory
32:Recession (disambiguation)
29:
27:Business cycle contraction
9281:
9217:
9162:
9116:
9031:
8953:2nd Industrial Revolution
8946:
8893:
8886:(1836–1838 and 1839–1843)
8802:1st Industrial Revolution
8800:
8769:
8570:Price-and-wage stickiness
8531:
8432:Resources in your library
8208:, 16 June 2008, Newsweek.
7266:12 September 2012 at the
7240:"Ready for a Real Downer"
6884:Finance & Development
6795:. Routledge. p. 30.
5545:"Recessionary Indicators"
5515:"Recessionary Indicators"
5204:"Recessionary Indicators"
5133:"Recessionary Indicators"
4031:. Routledge. p. 11.
3854:. ADB.org. Archived from
3313:The Canadian Encyclopedia
2902:December 2007 – June 2009
2884:July 1981 – November 1982
2670:
2414:, would favor the use of
2257:St. Louis Federal Reserve
1706:2021–2023 inflation surge
1616:Interest rate distortions
1442:zero interest-rate policy
1230:decline of GDP per capita
9234:1990s United States boom
9022:Financial crisis of 1914
8104:. Bls.gov. 2 July 2010.
7401:28 February 2009 at the
7351:12 December 2008 at the
7192:. BBC. 29 January 2008.
7033:Nayak, Pulin B. (2009).
5749:10.17016/FEDS.2018.055r1
5680:"Bear Market Indicators"
5115:"Bear Market Indicators"
4853:(2). Elsevier: 175–195.
4116:"Notes On Koo (Wonkish)"
4058:New York Review of Books
3773:(58): 19. Archived from
3131:"Recession definition".
2961:subprime mortgage crisis
2823:30 year mortgage average
2765:economies all affected.
2251:, named after economist
2249:Sahm Recession Indicator
2133:Gross Domestic Product:
1678:can trigger a recession.
533:Saltwater and freshwater
9049:Depression of 1920–1921
8981:Depression of 1882–1885
8895:Early Victorian Britain
8630:Real and nominal values
8087:11 January 2020 at the
7903:The Wall Street Journal
7514:The Wall Street Journal
7226:Senate Budget Committee
7220:4 February 2011 at the
6910:Finance and Development
6526:The Wall Street Journal
5816:6 December 2020 at the
5489:The Wall Street Journal
4734:10.1162/003465398557320
3967:The Wall Street Journal
2879:considered recessions:
2510:Stocks for the Long Run
2071:Business Expectations:
1786:Industrial Production:
1368:Balance sheet recession
1362:Balance sheet recession
1144:In terms of duration –
893:Particular histories of
461:International economics
386:Overlapping generations
9154:Recession of 1969–1970
9149:Recession of 1960–1961
9108:Recession of 1937–1938
8204:1 October 2009 at the
7985:12 August 2011 at the
7552:. IMF. 24 April 2009.
7479:. IMF. 16 April 2013.
7428:9 January 2020 at the
6321:Kelley, David (2019).
6284:Kelley, David (2019).
6149:Kelley, David (2019).
5880:Kelley, David (2019).
5861:Kelley, David (2019).
5762:Kelley, David (2019).
5716:Kelley, David (2019).
5574:Kelley, David (2019).
5464:Kelley, David (2019).
5181:Backus, David (2024).
5162:Kelley, David (2019).
4920:Kelley, David (2019).
4901:Kelley, David (2019).
4879:Backus, David (2024).
4822:Kelley, David (2019).
4239:Krugman, Paul (2009).
2955:(a consequence of the
2890:July 1990 – March 1991
2875:
2806:
2584:argue that there is a
2500:
2272:
2127:Volatility Index (VIX)
1887:Decreasing job growth.
1834:Baltic Dry Index (BDI)
1697:(inverted) yield curve
1348:availability heuristic
1133:, Commissioner of the
1109:macroeconomic policies
804:Mathematical economics
555:Modern monetary theory
318:Universal basic income
9272:Early 2000s recession
9239:Early 1990s recession
9191:Early 1980s recession
8771:Commercial revolution
8669:Nominal interest rate
8391:. 20 September 2010.
8068:6 August 2020 at the
6488:19 March 2020 at the
6383:Wright, Jonathan H.,
6169:"Texas Leading Index"
4601:18 March 2020 at the
4023:Jupe, Robert (2014).
3732:Koo, Richard (2009).
3308:"Recession in Canada"
2832:30 Year Treasury Bond
2814:Inverted yield curves
2812:
2804:
2582:neoclassical paradigm
2553:Federal Reserve Board
2486:
2264:
1970:Consumer expectations
1732:increased probability
1500:massive credit crunch
1403:and expansion of the
1318:Psychological aspects
1300:double-dip recessions
1186:industrial production
1153:gross national income
1127:In a 1974 article by
1061:, the bursting of an
983:Economic antisemitism
644:Wesley Clair Mitchell
619:Thomas Robert Malthus
456:Development economics
8838:Copper Panic of 1789
7637:Australian Recession
6760:Ahuja, H.L. (2019).
6684:The Conference Board
6390:28 July 2020 at the
5678:Fisher, Ken (2024).
5113:Fisher, Ken (2024).
4770:Ozyildirim, Ataman.
4728:. MIT Press: 45–61.
3056:Hindu rate of growth
2400:Keynesian economists
2395:Stabilization policy
2389:Government responses
2210:inverted yield curve
2054:inverted yield curve
1992:recreational vehicle
1768:Manufacturing sales.
1512:Causes of recessions
381:Ramsey–Cass–Koopmans
221:Liquidity preference
18:Economic contraction
9174:1973–1975 recession
9118:Post–WWII expansion
8792:Great Frost of 1709
8620:Neutrality of money
8601:Classical dichotomy
8517:Economic expansions
8448:Henderson, David R.
8300:. 1 December 2008.
7933:14 May 2011 at the
7851:The Washington Post
7669:. 14 February 2013.
7550:Box 1.1 (pp. 11–14)
7163:The Washington Post
6816:Mason, J.W (2020).
6766:Macroeconomics, 20e
6528:. 28 January 2008.
6443:Empirical Economics
6261:. 1 February 1967.
6110:6 July 2009 at the
5040:. 15 December 2017.
4546:14 May 2020 at the
4455:Stanford University
3883:The Washington Post
3046:Flooding the market
3041:Economic stagnation
2968:2007–2009 recession
2719:foreign investments
2489:multiplier process.
2482:John Maynard Keynes
2475:indebted households
2428:government spending
2291:Recession Threshold
2288:Recession Indicator
2281:
1875:Corporate Profits:
1802:Chemical Activity:
1548:Financial factors:
1462:quantitative easing
1458:Japan's lost decade
1454:U.S. 2009 recession
1446:pushing on a string
1261:economic depression
1065:, or a large-scale
836:Business portal
772:Macroeconomic model
649:John Maynard Keynes
446:Economic statistics
391:General equilibrium
9356:COVID-19 recession
9016:Panic of 1910–1911
8848:Panic of 1796–1797
8674:Real interest rate
8642:Economic expansion
8038:The New York Times
8007:The New York Times
7955:The New York Times
7432:IMF. January 2009.
7372:. 9 October 2008.
7318:The New York Times
7215:The Bush Recession
7131:The New York Times
7008:The New York Times
6370:7 May 2019 at the
6351:10.7910/DVN/AWWQPN
6231:. 5 January 2008.
5989:. 26 August 2024.
5684:Fisher Investments
5119:Fisher Investments
4120:The New York Times
3780:on 10 January 2020
3462:The New York Times
3423:The New York Times
3384:The New York Times
3287:on 2 November 2012
3120:. Merriam-Webster.
3091:COVID-19 recession
2914:COVID-19 recession
2876:
2807:
2636:competition policy
2563:, chairman of the
2551:, chairman of the
2449:federal funds rate
2279:
1964:U.S. Census Bureau
1630:stock market crash
1564:concentration risk
1520:Economic factors:
1130:The New York Times
974:Prominent examples
724:Edward C. Prescott
451:Monetary economics
9432:
9431:
9143:Recession of 1958
9137:Recession of 1953
9131:Recession of 1949
8828:Thirteen Colonies
8635:Velocity of money
8565:Paradox of thrift
8418:Library resources
8162:on 5 October 2008
7716:on 14 August 2018
7293:on 2 January 2010
7261:Unemployment Rate
7250:on 23 April 2008.
7081:978-0-07-137048-6
6831:978-1-78643-205-6
6802:978-0-429-97052-8
6775:978-93-5283-732-8
6746:978-0-19-923058-7
6374:By Michael Hudson
6342:Harvard Dataverse
6055:on 29 August 2024
5971:. 10 August 2024.
5439:World Development
4970:Premack, Rachel.
4331:. 16 April 2009.
4307:978-0-297-82120-5
4254:978-0-393-07101-6
4199:978-1-349-95189-5
4038:978-1-135-93226-8
3947:978-1-4008-3472-3
3743:978-0-470-82494-8
3705:oecd-ilibrary.org
3186:. 7 January 2008.
3036:Economic collapse
2985:unemployment rate
2681:According to the
2543:For example, the
2386:
2385:
2376:YoY change < 0
2359:YoY change < 0
2342:YoY change < 0
2325:YoY change < 0
2242:unemployment rate
2238:unemployment rate
2106:consumer spending
1985:consumer spending
1952:income inequality
1928:Personal Income:
1829:volumes of goods.
1660:natural disasters
1610:Credit tightening
1484:paradox of thrift
1343:Robert J. Shiller
1035:
1034:
872:
871:
799:Political economy
754:N. Gregory Mankiw
744:Thomas J. Sargent
589:Market monetarism
403:Endogenous growth
233:National accounts
16:(Redirected from
9462:
9224:Great Regression
9219:Great Moderation
9065:Great Depression
9054:Roaring Twenties
8575:Underconsumption
8545:Effective demand
8536:Aggregate demand
8510:
8503:
8496:
8487:
8486:
8461:
8456:(1st ed.).
8405:
8404:
8402:
8400:
8381:
8375:
8374:
8342:
8336:
8335:
8326:(13 July 2009).
8320:
8314:
8313:
8311:
8309:
8290:
8284:
8283:
8281:
8279:
8264:
8258:
8257:
8255:
8253:
8241:
8235:
8234:
8232:
8230:
8215:
8209:
8196:
8190:
8189:
8178:
8172:
8171:
8169:
8167:
8151:
8145:
8144:
8142:
8140:
8124:
8118:
8117:
8115:
8113:
8098:
8092:
8079:
8073:
8060:
8054:
8053:
8051:
8049:
8029:
8023:
8022:
8020:
8018:
7999:Uchitelle, Louis
7995:
7989:
7977:
7971:
7970:
7968:
7966:
7946:
7940:
7925:
7919:
7918:
7916:
7914:
7894:
7888:
7887:
7885:
7883:
7877:
7870:
7862:
7856:
7855:
7845:
7839:
7838:
7836:
7834:
7815:
7809:
7808:
7806:
7804:
7795:. 19 July 2021.
7785:
7779:
7778:
7776:
7774:
7759:
7753:
7752:
7750:
7748:
7732:
7726:
7725:
7723:
7721:
7706:
7697:
7696:
7694:
7692:
7677:
7671:
7670:
7659:
7653:
7652:
7651:
7649:
7631:
7625:
7624:
7623:
7621:
7616:on 12 April 2014
7602:
7596:
7595:
7594:
7592:
7575:
7569:
7568:
7566:
7564:
7558:
7547:
7539:
7530:
7529:
7527:
7525:
7505:
7496:
7495:
7493:
7491:
7485:
7478:
7470:
7464:
7463:
7461:
7459:
7454:on 21 March 2010
7444:
7433:
7420:
7405:
7392:
7386:
7385:
7383:
7381:
7362:
7356:
7343:
7334:
7333:
7331:
7329:
7309:
7303:
7302:
7300:
7298:
7282:
7271:
7258:
7252:
7251:
7246:. Archived from
7235:
7229:
7212:
7206:
7205:
7203:
7201:
7186:
7180:
7179:
7177:
7175:
7153:
7147:
7146:
7144:
7142:
7122:
7116:
7115:
7106:
7104:
7089:
7083:
7069:
7063:
7062:
7030:
7024:
7023:
7021:
7019:
6999:
6993:
6992:
6974:
6942:
6936:
6935:
6933:
6924:
6918:
6917:
6907:
6898:
6892:
6891:
6881:
6872:
6866:
6865:
6863:
6861:
6851:
6842:
6836:
6835:
6813:
6807:
6806:
6786:
6780:
6779:
6757:
6751:
6750:
6730:
6724:
6723:
6712:
6706:
6705:
6694:
6688:
6687:
6677:
6671:
6670:
6659:
6653:
6652:
6650:
6648:
6637:Business Insider
6628:
6622:
6621:
6606:
6600:
6599:
6587:
6581:
6580:
6578:
6576:
6570:
6557:
6548:
6542:
6541:
6539:
6537:
6518:
6512:
6511:
6499:
6493:
6481:
6475:
6474:
6434:
6425:
6424:
6422:
6420:
6401:
6395:
6381:
6375:
6362:
6356:
6355:
6353:
6337:
6331:
6330:
6318:
6312:
6311:
6310:. 7 August 2024.
6300:
6294:
6293:
6281:
6275:
6274:
6272:
6270:
6251:
6245:
6244:
6242:
6240:
6221:
6215:
6214:
6212:
6210:
6191:
6185:
6184:
6182:
6180:
6175:. 22 August 2024
6165:
6159:
6158:
6146:
6140:
6139:
6137:
6135:
6121:
6115:
6102:
6096:
6095:
6093:
6091:
6071:
6065:
6064:
6062:
6060:
6051:. Archived from
6040:
6034:
6033:
6031:
6029:
6009:
6003:
6002:
6000:
5998:
5979:
5973:
5972:
5961:
5955:
5954:
5934:
5928:
5927:
5915:
5909:
5908:
5896:
5890:
5889:
5877:
5871:
5870:
5858:
5852:
5851:
5849:
5847:
5827:
5821:
5809:
5803:
5802:
5800:
5798:
5778:
5772:
5771:
5759:
5753:
5752:
5732:
5726:
5725:
5713:
5707:
5706:
5694:
5688:
5687:
5675:
5669:
5668:
5666:
5664:
5644:
5638:
5637:
5628:(4): 1790–1799.
5617:
5611:
5610:
5608:
5606:
5593:Nash, Jennifer.
5590:
5584:
5583:
5571:
5565:
5564:
5562:
5560:
5541:
5535:
5534:
5532:
5530:
5511:
5505:
5504:
5502:
5500:
5480:
5474:
5473:
5461:
5455:
5454:
5434:
5428:
5427:
5425:
5423:
5404:
5398:
5397:
5395:
5393:
5382:Business Insider
5373:
5367:
5366:
5354:
5348:
5347:
5345:
5343:
5332:Business Insider
5323:
5317:
5316:
5314:
5312:
5292:
5286:
5285:
5283:
5281:
5270:Business Insider
5261:
5255:
5254:
5252:
5250:
5230:
5224:
5223:
5221:
5219:
5200:
5194:
5193:
5187:
5178:
5172:
5171:
5159:
5153:
5152:
5150:
5148:
5129:
5123:
5122:
5110:
5104:
5103:
5101:
5099:
5079:
5073:
5072:
5070:
5068:
5048:
5042:
5041:
5030:
5024:
5023:
5021:
5019:
5013:
5006:
4998:
4992:
4991:
4989:
4987:
4976:Business Insider
4967:
4961:
4960:
4958:
4956:
4945:Business Insider
4936:
4930:
4929:
4917:
4911:
4910:
4898:
4892:
4891:
4885:
4876:
4870:
4869:
4867:
4865:
4838:
4832:
4831:
4819:
4813:
4812:
4810:
4808:
4794:
4788:
4787:
4785:
4783:
4767:
4761:
4760:
4758:
4756:
4750:
4719:
4710:
4704:
4703:
4701:
4699:
4684:
4678:
4677:
4675:
4673:
4667:
4660:
4652:
4646:
4645:
4638:
4632:
4631:
4629:
4627:
4612:
4606:
4593:
4587:
4586:
4584:
4582:
4577:on 28 April 2020
4573:. Archived from
4567:
4561:
4555:
4554:
4538:
4532:
4531:
4520:
4514:
4513:
4505:
4499:
4498:
4484:
4478:
4477:
4465:
4459:
4458:
4446:
4440:
4439:
4427:
4421:
4420:
4408:
4402:
4401:
4389:
4383:
4382:
4370:
4364:
4363:
4351:
4345:
4344:
4342:
4340:
4321:
4312:
4311:
4291:
4285:
4284:
4282:
4280:
4265:
4259:
4258:
4246:
4236:
4230:
4229:
4227:
4225:
4219:
4210:
4204:
4203:
4178:"Liquidity Trap"
4173:
4167:
4166:
4164:
4162:
4142:
4136:
4135:
4133:
4131:
4111:
4105:
4104:
4102:
4100:
4089:Business Insider
4080:
4074:
4073:
4071:
4069:
4049:
4043:
4042:
4020:
4014:
4013:
4011:
4009:
3989:
3983:
3982:
3980:
3978:
3958:
3952:
3951:
3931:
3925:
3924:
3922:
3920:
3905:
3899:
3898:
3896:
3894:
3874:
3868:
3867:
3865:
3863:
3858:on 17 March 2010
3848:
3842:
3841:
3815:
3809:
3808:
3807:on 23 July 2021.
3803:. Archived from
3796:
3790:
3789:
3787:
3785:
3779:
3768:
3759:
3748:
3747:
3729:
3720:
3715:
3709:
3708:
3697:
3691:
3690:
3688:
3686:
3671:
3665:
3664:
3662:
3660:
3645:
3639:
3638:
3636:
3634:
3618:
3612:
3611:
3609:
3607:
3591:
3585:
3584:
3582:
3580:
3575:. Bloomberg News
3568:
3562:
3561:
3549:
3543:
3542:
3540:
3538:
3523:
3514:
3513:
3511:
3509:
3492:
3486:
3485:
3483:
3481:
3453:
3447:
3446:
3444:
3442:
3414:
3408:
3407:
3405:
3403:
3380:"Points of View"
3375:
3369:
3363:
3362:
3360:
3358:
3336:
3330:
3329:
3327:
3325:
3303:
3297:
3296:
3294:
3292:
3283:. Archived from
3273:
3264:
3263:
3252:
3243:
3242:
3240:
3238:
3224:
3218:
3217:
3215:
3213:
3194:
3188:
3187:
3176:
3170:
3169:
3157:
3151:
3150:
3148:
3146:
3141:on 28 March 2009
3128:
3122:
3121:
3108:
3086:Underconsumption
3061:Inventory bounce
2871:
2862:
2856:
2850:
2844:
2838:
2829:
2820:
2695:global recession
2677:Global recession
2660:welfare benefits
2648:living standards
2629:anti-competitive
2618:Global epidemics
2498:
2453:zero lower bound
2404:aggregate demand
2285:Recession Signal
2282:
2278:
2223:Frederic Mishkin
2102:Commodity prices
2029:Credit Markets:
2014:building permits
1910:Jeffrey Gundlach
1817:Transportation:
1741:Prakash Loungani
1676:trading partners
1654:External shocks
1580:refinancing risk
1566:, there is also
1417:deficit spending
1410:Great Depression
1384:financial crisis
1293:Recession shapes
1265:recession shapes
1250:corporate sector
1071:natural disaster
1055:financial crisis
1027:
1020:
1013:
960:Financial crisis
955:Economic miracle
941:Economics events
932:Social democracy
887:Economic history
874:
873:
864:
857:
850:
834:
833:
824:Money portal
822:
821:
820:
734:William Nordhaus
719:Robert Lucas Jr.
609:François Quesnay
245:Nominal rigidity
216:Demand for money
194:Microfoundations
130:Financial crisis
110:Effective demand
80:Aggregate supply
75:Aggregate demand
62:
39:
38:
21:
9470:
9469:
9465:
9464:
9463:
9461:
9460:
9459:
9435:
9434:
9433:
9428:
9293:Great Recession
9285:
9283:Information Age
9277:
9226:
9222:
9213:
9166:
9164:Great Inflation
9158:
9120:
9112:
9035:
9033:Interwar period
9027:
8963:Long Depression
8955:
8951:
8942:
8902:
8898:
8889:
8804:
8796:
8773:
8765:
8730:U.S. recessions
8725:U.K. recessions
8657:U.S. expansions
8527:
8514:
8438:
8437:
8436:
8426:
8425:
8421:
8414:
8409:
8408:
8398:
8396:
8383:
8382:
8378:
8363:10.13176/11.106
8343:
8339:
8321:
8317:
8307:
8305:
8292:
8291:
8287:
8277:
8275:
8266:
8265:
8261:
8251:
8249:
8242:
8238:
8228:
8226:
8217:
8216:
8212:
8206:Wayback Machine
8197:
8193:
8188:on 7 July 2008.
8180:
8179:
8175:
8165:
8163:
8152:
8148:
8138:
8136:
8125:
8121:
8111:
8109:
8100:
8099:
8095:
8089:Wayback Machine
8080:
8076:
8070:Wayback Machine
8061:
8057:
8047:
8045:
8030:
8026:
8016:
8014:
7996:
7992:
7987:Wayback Machine
7978:
7974:
7964:
7962:
7947:
7943:
7935:Wayback Machine
7926:
7922:
7912:
7910:
7895:
7891:
7881:
7879:
7875:
7868:
7864:
7863:
7859:
7846:
7842:
7832:
7830:
7817:
7816:
7812:
7802:
7800:
7787:
7786:
7782:
7772:
7770:
7761:
7760:
7756:
7746:
7744:
7733:
7729:
7719:
7717:
7708:
7707:
7700:
7690:
7688:
7679:
7678:
7674:
7661:
7660:
7656:
7647:
7645:
7632:
7628:
7619:
7617:
7604:
7603:
7599:
7590:
7588:
7577:
7576:
7572:
7562:
7560:
7556:
7545:
7541:
7540:
7533:
7523:
7521:
7506:
7499:
7489:
7487:
7483:
7476:
7472:
7471:
7467:
7457:
7455:
7446:
7445:
7436:
7430:Wayback Machine
7421:
7408:
7403:Wayback Machine
7393:
7389:
7379:
7377:
7364:
7363:
7359:
7353:Wayback Machine
7344:
7337:
7327:
7325:
7310:
7306:
7296:
7294:
7283:
7274:
7268:Wayback Machine
7259:
7255:
7236:
7232:
7222:Wayback Machine
7213:
7209:
7199:
7197:
7188:
7187:
7183:
7173:
7171:
7154:
7150:
7140:
7138:
7123:
7119:
7102:
7100:
7091:
7090:
7086:
7070:
7066:
7031:
7027:
7017:
7015:
7000:
6996:
6943:
6939:
6934:. pp. 2–3.
6931:
6925:
6921:
6905:
6899:
6895:
6879:
6873:
6869:
6859:
6857:
6849:
6843:
6839:
6832:
6814:
6810:
6803:
6787:
6783:
6776:
6758:
6754:
6747:
6731:
6727:
6714:
6713:
6709:
6696:
6695:
6691:
6679:
6678:
6674:
6661:
6660:
6656:
6646:
6644:
6629:
6625:
6608:
6607:
6603:
6588:
6584:
6574:
6572:
6568:
6555:
6549:
6545:
6535:
6533:
6520:
6519:
6515:
6500:
6496:
6490:Wayback Machine
6482:
6478:
6435:
6428:
6418:
6416:
6403:
6402:
6398:
6392:Wayback Machine
6382:
6378:
6372:Wayback Machine
6363:
6359:
6338:
6334:
6319:
6315:
6302:
6301:
6297:
6282:
6278:
6268:
6266:
6253:
6252:
6248:
6238:
6236:
6223:
6222:
6218:
6208:
6206:
6193:
6192:
6188:
6178:
6176:
6167:
6166:
6162:
6147:
6143:
6133:
6131:
6123:
6122:
6118:
6114:21 January 2008
6112:Wayback Machine
6103:
6099:
6089:
6087:
6072:
6068:
6058:
6056:
6049:Financial Times
6041:
6037:
6027:
6025:
6010:
6006:
5996:
5994:
5981:
5980:
5976:
5963:
5962:
5958:
5935:
5931:
5916:
5912:
5897:
5893:
5878:
5874:
5859:
5855:
5845:
5843:
5828:
5824:
5818:Wayback Machine
5810:
5806:
5796:
5794:
5779:
5775:
5760:
5756:
5733:
5729:
5714:
5710:
5695:
5691:
5676:
5672:
5662:
5660:
5645:
5641:
5618:
5614:
5604:
5602:
5591:
5587:
5572:
5568:
5558:
5556:
5543:
5542:
5538:
5528:
5526:
5513:
5512:
5508:
5498:
5496:
5481:
5477:
5462:
5458:
5435:
5431:
5421:
5419:
5406:
5405:
5401:
5391:
5389:
5374:
5370:
5355:
5351:
5341:
5339:
5324:
5320:
5310:
5308:
5293:
5289:
5279:
5277:
5262:
5258:
5248:
5246:
5231:
5227:
5217:
5215:
5202:
5201:
5197:
5185:
5179:
5175:
5160:
5156:
5146:
5144:
5131:
5130:
5126:
5111:
5107:
5097:
5095:
5080:
5076:
5066:
5064:
5049:
5045:
5032:
5031:
5027:
5017:
5015:
5011:
5007:. August 2019.
5004:
5000:
4999:
4995:
4985:
4983:
4968:
4964:
4954:
4952:
4937:
4933:
4918:
4914:
4899:
4895:
4883:
4877:
4873:
4863:
4861:
4839:
4835:
4820:
4816:
4806:
4804:
4796:
4795:
4791:
4781:
4779:
4768:
4764:
4754:
4752:
4748:
4717:
4711:
4707:
4697:
4695:
4686:
4685:
4681:
4671:
4669:
4665:
4658:
4654:
4653:
4649:
4640:
4639:
4635:
4625:
4623:
4614:
4613:
4609:
4603:Wayback Machine
4594:
4590:
4580:
4578:
4569:
4568:
4564:
4552:
4548:Wayback Machine
4539:
4535:
4522:
4521:
4517:
4506:
4502:
4485:
4481:
4466:
4462:
4447:
4443:
4428:
4424:
4409:
4405:
4390:
4386:
4371:
4367:
4352:
4348:
4338:
4336:
4323:
4322:
4315:
4308:
4292:
4288:
4278:
4276:
4267:
4266:
4262:
4255:
4237:
4233:
4223:
4221:
4217:
4211:
4207:
4200:
4174:
4170:
4160:
4158:
4143:
4139:
4129:
4127:
4112:
4108:
4098:
4096:
4081:
4077:
4067:
4065:
4050:
4046:
4039:
4021:
4017:
4007:
4005:
3990:
3986:
3976:
3974:
3959:
3955:
3948:
3932:
3928:
3918:
3916:
3907:
3906:
3902:
3892:
3890:
3875:
3871:
3861:
3859:
3850:
3849:
3845:
3838:
3816:
3812:
3797:
3793:
3783:
3781:
3777:
3766:
3760:
3751:
3744:
3730:
3723:
3716:
3712:
3699:
3698:
3694:
3684:
3682:
3673:
3672:
3668:
3658:
3656:
3646:
3642:
3632:
3630:
3619:
3615:
3605:
3603:
3592:
3588:
3578:
3576:
3569:
3565:
3550:
3546:
3536:
3534:
3525:
3524:
3517:
3507:
3505:
3493:
3489:
3479:
3477:
3454:
3450:
3440:
3438:
3415:
3411:
3401:
3399:
3376:
3372:
3366:
3356:
3354:
3337:
3333:
3323:
3321:
3304:
3300:
3290:
3288:
3275:
3274:
3267:
3254:
3253:
3246:
3236:
3234:
3226:
3225:
3221:
3211:
3209:
3196:
3195:
3191:
3178:
3177:
3173:
3158:
3154:
3144:
3142:
3130:
3129:
3125:
3110:
3109:
3105:
3100:
3095:
3006:
2949:
2936:
2934:Great Recession
2930:
2869:
2868:
2860:
2858:
2854:
2852:
2848:
2846:
2842:
2840:
2836:
2834:
2827:
2825:
2818:
2799:
2793:
2785:Great Recession
2777:
2771:
2746:
2711:
2679:
2673:
2668:
2644:
2603:
2578:
2573:
2537:
2505:
2499:
2493:
2420:monetary policy
2412:Milton Friedman
2397:
2391:
2231:Great Recession
2114:sector rotation
2085:margin accounts
1941:personal income
1754:Manufacturing:
1718:Joseph Stiglitz
1693:
1622:Economic bubble
1584:investment risk
1531:Fiscal policies
1514:
1479:
1430:
1397:negative equity
1370:
1364:
1320:
1295:
1289:
1238:
1125:
1063:economic bubble
1031:
1002:
969:
936:
868:
828:
818:
816:
809:
808:
767:
759:
758:
739:Joseph Stiglitz
699:Milton Friedman
679:Friedrich Hayek
604:
594:
593:
476:
466:
465:
436:
428:
427:
413:Mundell–Fleming
408:Matching theory
346:Keynesian cross
331:
323:
322:
293:
285:
284:
70:
35:
28:
23:
22:
15:
12:
11:
5:
9468:
9458:
9457:
9455:Business cycle
9452:
9447:
9430:
9429:
9427:
9426:
9425:
9424:
9419:
9414:
9412:United Kingdom
9409:
9404:
9399:
9394:
9389:
9384:
9379:
9374:
9369:
9364:
9353:
9352:
9351:
9346:
9344:United Kingdom
9341:
9336:
9331:
9326:
9321:
9316:
9311:
9306:
9301:
9289:
9287:
9286:(2007–present)
9279:
9278:
9276:
9275:
9269:
9264:
9263:
9262:
9257:
9255:United Kingdom
9252:
9247:
9236:
9230:
9228:
9215:
9214:
9212:
9211:
9210:
9209:
9204:
9202:United Kingdom
9199:
9188:
9187:
9186:
9181:
9179:United Kingdom
9170:
9168:
9160:
9159:
9157:
9156:
9151:
9146:
9140:
9134:
9128:
9124:
9122:
9114:
9113:
9111:
9110:
9105:
9104:
9103:
9098:
9096:United Kingdom
9093:
9088:
9083:
9078:
9073:
9062:
9059:
9056:
9051:
9046:
9039:
9037:
9029:
9028:
9026:
9025:
9019:
9013:
9007:
9001:
8998:
8992:
8986:
8983:
8978:
8977:
8976:
8971:
8969:United Kingdom
8959:
8957:
8944:
8943:
8941:
8940:
8934:
8928:
8925:
8919:
8916:
8910:
8906:
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8808:
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8794:
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8751:
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8722:
8717:
8712:
8707:
8702:
8697:
8687:
8686:
8685:
8676:
8671:
8661:
8660:
8659:
8654:
8649:
8639:
8638:
8637:
8632:
8627:
8622:
8617:
8608:
8603:
8598:
8584:
8582:Business cycle
8579:
8578:
8577:
8572:
8567:
8562:
8560:Overproduction
8557:
8552:
8547:
8532:
8529:
8528:
8513:
8512:
8505:
8498:
8490:
8484:
8483:
8477:
8435:
8434:
8428:
8427:
8416:
8415:
8413:
8412:External links
8410:
8407:
8406:
8376:
8337:
8315:
8285:
8274:on 3 July 2009
8259:
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7990:
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7434:
7406:
7387:
7357:
7335:
7304:
7272:
7253:
7230:
7228:, 31 July 2003
7207:
7181:
7148:
7117:
7084:
7064:
7025:
6994:
6963:10.1086/657529
6937:
6919:
6893:
6867:
6856:. pp. 3–4
6837:
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6808:
6801:
6781:
6774:
6752:
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6725:
6707:
6689:
6672:
6654:
6623:
6601:
6582:
6543:
6513:
6494:
6476:
6426:
6409:newyorkfed.org
6396:
6376:
6357:
6332:
6313:
6295:
6276:
6246:
6216:
6199:chicagofed.org
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3869:
3843:
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3810:
3791:
3749:
3742:
3721:
3710:
3692:
3666:
3640:
3625:. PolitiFact.
3613:
3586:
3563:
3544:
3515:
3487:
3448:
3409:
3370:
3364:
3331:
3298:
3265:
3262:. 8 July 2008.
3244:
3219:
3189:
3171:
3152:
3123:
3102:
3101:
3099:
3096:
3094:
3093:
3088:
3083:
3078:
3073:
3071:Overproduction
3068:
3063:
3058:
3053:
3048:
3043:
3038:
3033:
3028:
3023:
3018:
3013:
3007:
3005:
3002:
2948:
2945:
2932:Main article:
2929:
2926:
2906:
2905:
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2893:
2887:
2859:
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2847:
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2826:
2817:
2795:Main article:
2792:
2789:
2773:Main article:
2770:
2769:United Kingdom
2767:
2745:
2744:European Union
2742:
2710:
2707:
2675:Main article:
2672:
2669:
2667:
2664:
2643:
2642:Social effects
2640:
2602:
2599:
2577:
2574:
2572:
2569:
2545:1981 recession
2536:
2533:
2504:
2501:
2491:
2462:macroeconomic
2390:
2387:
2384:
2383:
2380:
2377:
2374:
2371:
2367:
2366:
2363:
2360:
2357:
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2329:
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2323:
2320:
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2312:
2309:
2306:
2303:
2299:
2298:
2295:
2292:
2289:
2286:
2274:
2273:
2268:moving average
2245:
2234:
2206:
2202:
2199:
2196:
2193:
2190:
2183:
2177:
2167:
2166:
2163:Alan Greenspan
2159:
2151:
2150:
2147:
2142:
2131:
2130:
2124:
2121:
2118:
2110:
2099:
2091:Asset Prices:
2089:
2088:
2077:
2076:
2069:
2068:
2065:federal budget
2061:
2058:
2050:
2046:
2038:
2034:
2027:
2026:
2018:
2006:
2005:
2002:
1995:
1988:
1981:
1967:
1956:
1955:
1948:
1937:
1926:
1925:
1921:
1917:
1913:
1906:
1903:
1891:
1888:
1881:
1880:
1873:
1872:
1869:
1865:
1857:
1853:
1837:
1830:
1815:
1814:
1813:Council (ACC).
1810:
1807:
1800:
1799:
1791:
1784:
1783:
1772:
1769:
1766:
1763:
1760:
1737:
1736:
1733:
1728:
1725:
1704:to combat the
1702:fed funds rate
1692:
1689:
1684:
1683:
1679:
1668:
1652:
1651:
1633:
1619:
1613:
1607:
1603:
1596:political risk
1576:liquidity risk
1560:Financial risk
1557:
1546:
1545:
1539:
1528:
1513:
1510:
1478:
1475:
1452:described the
1434:liquidity trap
1429:
1428:Liquidity trap
1426:
1401:interest rates
1389:private sector
1366:Main article:
1363:
1360:
1352:money illusion
1329:animal spirits
1319:
1316:
1291:Main article:
1288:
1285:
1246:Richard C. Koo
1237:
1234:
1184:, employment,
1163:
1162:
1159:
1156:
1149:
1138:Julius Shiskin
1124:
1121:
1098:United Kingdom
1094:European Union
1047:business cycle
1033:
1032:
1030:
1029:
1022:
1015:
1007:
1004:
1003:
1001:
1000:
995:
990:
985:
979:
976:
975:
971:
970:
968:
967:
962:
957:
952:
946:
943:
942:
938:
937:
935:
934:
929:
924:
919:
914:
909:
904:
898:
895:
894:
890:
889:
883:
882:
870:
869:
867:
866:
859:
852:
844:
841:
840:
839:
838:
826:
811:
810:
807:
806:
801:
796:
794:Microeconomics
791:
790:
789:
779:
774:
768:
765:
764:
761:
760:
757:
756:
751:
746:
741:
736:
731:
726:
721:
716:
711:
709:Lawrence Klein
706:
704:Paul Samuelson
701:
696:
691:
686:
681:
676:
671:
666:
661:
659:Michał Kalecki
656:
651:
646:
641:
636:
631:
626:
621:
616:
611:
605:
600:
599:
596:
595:
592:
591:
586:
581:
579:Disequilibrium
576:
575:
574:
567:Post-Keynesian
564:
559:
558:
557:
547:
536:
535:
530:
525:
520:
515:
514:
513:
503:
498:
497:
496:
491:
477:
472:
471:
468:
467:
464:
463:
458:
453:
448:
443:
437:
435:Related fields
434:
433:
430:
429:
426:
425:
420:
415:
410:
405:
400:
399:
398:
388:
383:
378:
373:
368:
363:
361:Phillips curve
358:
353:
348:
343:
338:
332:
329:
328:
325:
324:
321:
320:
315:
310:
305:
300:
294:
291:
290:
287:
286:
283:
282:
277:
272:
267:
262:
257:
252:
247:
242:
241:
240:
230:
225:
224:
223:
213:
211:Money creation
208:
207:
206:
196:
191:
190:
189:
184:
179:
169:
167:Liquidity trap
164:
159:
154:
153:
152:
147:
137:
132:
127:
126:
125:
120:
112:
107:
102:
97:
92:
87:
85:Business cycle
82:
77:
71:
69:Basic concepts
68:
67:
64:
63:
55:
54:
52:Macroeconomics
48:
47:
26:
9:
6:
4:
3:
2:
9467:
9456:
9453:
9451:
9448:
9446:
9443:
9442:
9440:
9423:
9420:
9418:
9417:United States
9415:
9413:
9410:
9408:
9405:
9403:
9400:
9398:
9395:
9393:
9390:
9388:
9385:
9383:
9380:
9378:
9375:
9373:
9370:
9368:
9365:
9363:
9359:
9358:
9357:
9354:
9350:
9349:United States
9347:
9345:
9342:
9340:
9337:
9335:
9332:
9330:
9327:
9325:
9322:
9320:
9317:
9315:
9312:
9310:
9307:
9305:
9302:
9300:
9296:
9295:
9294:
9291:
9290:
9288:
9284:
9280:
9273:
9270:
9268:
9265:
9261:
9260:United States
9258:
9256:
9253:
9251:
9248:
9246:
9242:
9241:
9240:
9237:
9235:
9232:
9231:
9229:
9225:
9220:
9216:
9208:
9207:United States
9205:
9203:
9200:
9198:
9194:
9193:
9192:
9189:
9185:
9184:United States
9182:
9180:
9177:
9176:
9175:
9172:
9171:
9169:
9165:
9161:
9155:
9152:
9150:
9147:
9144:
9141:
9138:
9135:
9132:
9129:
9126:
9125:
9123:
9119:
9115:
9109:
9106:
9102:
9101:United States
9099:
9097:
9094:
9092:
9089:
9087:
9084:
9082:
9079:
9077:
9074:
9072:
9068:
9067:
9066:
9063:
9060:
9057:
9055:
9052:
9050:
9047:
9044:
9041:
9040:
9038:
9034:
9030:
9023:
9020:
9017:
9014:
9011:
9010:Panic of 1907
9008:
9005:
9004:Panic of 1901
9002:
8999:
8996:
8995:Panic of 1893
8993:
8990:
8989:Baring crisis
8987:
8984:
8982:
8979:
8975:
8974:United States
8972:
8970:
8966:
8965:
8964:
8961:
8960:
8958:
8954:
8949:
8945:
8938:
8935:
8932:
8931:Panic of 1866
8929:
8926:
8923:
8922:Panic of 1857
8920:
8917:
8914:
8913:Panic of 1847
8911:
8908:
8907:
8905:
8901:
8896:
8892:
8885:
8884:Panic of 1837
8882:
8879:
8876:
8873:
8872:Panic of 1825
8870:
8867:
8864:
8861:
8858:
8855:
8852:
8849:
8846:
8843:
8842:Panic of 1792
8839:
8836:
8833:
8829:
8826:
8824:
8821:
8819:
8815:
8814:
8813:
8810:
8809:
8807:
8803:
8799:
8793:
8790:
8788:
8787:Slump of 1706
8785:
8782:
8779:
8778:
8776:
8772:
8768:
8760:
8757:
8756:
8755:
8752:
8748:
8745:
8743:
8740:
8739:
8738:
8735:
8731:
8728:
8726:
8723:
8721:
8718:
8716:
8713:
8711:
8708:
8706:
8703:
8701:
8698:
8696:
8695:Balance sheet
8693:
8692:
8691:
8688:
8684:
8680:
8677:
8675:
8672:
8670:
8667:
8666:
8665:
8664:Interest rate
8662:
8658:
8655:
8653:
8650:
8648:
8645:
8644:
8643:
8640:
8636:
8633:
8631:
8628:
8626:
8623:
8621:
8618:
8616:
8612:
8609:
8607:
8604:
8602:
8599:
8597:
8594:
8593:
8592:
8588:
8585:
8583:
8580:
8576:
8573:
8571:
8568:
8566:
8563:
8561:
8558:
8556:
8553:
8551:
8548:
8546:
8543:
8542:
8541:
8537:
8534:
8533:
8530:
8526:
8522:
8518:
8511:
8506:
8504:
8499:
8497:
8492:
8491:
8488:
8481:
8478:
8476:
8472:
8468:
8464:
8459:
8455:
8454:
8449:
8445:
8440:
8439:
8433:
8430:
8429:
8424:
8419:
8394:
8390:
8386:
8380:
8372:
8368:
8364:
8360:
8356:
8352:
8348:
8341:
8333:
8329:
8325:
8324:Gross, Daniel
8319:
8303:
8299:
8295:
8289:
8273:
8269:
8263:
8247:
8240:
8224:
8220:
8214:
8207:
8203:
8200:
8195:
8187:
8183:
8177:
8161:
8157:
8150:
8134:
8130:
8123:
8107:
8103:
8097:
8090:
8086:
8083:
8078:
8071:
8067:
8064:
8059:
8043:
8039:
8035:
8028:
8012:
8008:
8004:
8000:
7994:
7988:
7984:
7981:
7976:
7960:
7956:
7952:
7945:
7939:
7936:
7932:
7929:
7924:
7908:
7904:
7900:
7893:
7874:
7867:
7861:
7853:
7852:
7844:
7828:
7824:
7820:
7814:
7798:
7794:
7790:
7784:
7768:
7764:
7758:
7742:
7738:
7731:
7715:
7711:
7705:
7703:
7686:
7682:
7676:
7668:
7664:
7658:
7643:
7639:
7638:
7630:
7615:
7611:
7607:
7601:
7586:
7582:
7581:
7574:
7555:
7551:
7544:
7538:
7536:
7519:
7515:
7511:
7504:
7502:
7482:
7475:
7469:
7453:
7449:
7443:
7441:
7439:
7431:
7427:
7424:
7419:
7417:
7415:
7413:
7411:
7404:
7400:
7397:
7391:
7375:
7371:
7370:The Economist
7367:
7361:
7354:
7350:
7347:
7342:
7340:
7323:
7319:
7315:
7308:
7292:
7288:
7281:
7279:
7277:
7269:
7265:
7262:
7257:
7249:
7245:
7241:
7234:
7227:
7223:
7219:
7216:
7211:
7195:
7191:
7185:
7169:
7165:
7164:
7159:
7152:
7136:
7132:
7128:
7121:
7114:
7112:
7098:
7094:
7088:
7082:
7078:
7074:
7068:
7060:
7056:
7052:
7048:
7044:
7040:
7036:
7029:
7013:
7009:
7005:
6998:
6990:
6986:
6982:
6978:
6973:
6968:
6964:
6960:
6956:
6952:
6948:
6941:
6930:
6923:
6915:
6911:
6904:
6897:
6889:
6885:
6878:
6871:
6855:
6848:
6841:
6833:
6827:
6823:
6819:
6812:
6804:
6798:
6794:
6793:
6785:
6777:
6771:
6767:
6763:
6756:
6748:
6742:
6738:
6737:
6729:
6721:
6717:
6711:
6703:
6699:
6693:
6685:
6682:
6676:
6668:
6664:
6658:
6642:
6638:
6634:
6627:
6620:
6615:
6611:
6605:
6597:
6593:
6586:
6567:
6563:
6562:
6554:
6547:
6531:
6527:
6523:
6517:
6509:
6505:
6498:
6491:
6487:
6484:
6480:
6472:
6468:
6464:
6460:
6456:
6452:
6448:
6444:
6440:
6433:
6431:
6414:
6410:
6406:
6400:
6393:
6389:
6386:
6380:
6373:
6369:
6366:
6361:
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5992:
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5693:
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5674:
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5653:Seeking Alpha
5650:
5643:
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5577:
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4558:public domain
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3837:9781612336084
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3198:"FAQ | EABCN"
3193:
3185:
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3119:
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3039:
3037:
3034:
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3029:
3027:
3024:
3022:
3019:
3017:
3016:Credit crunch
3014:
3012:
3009:
3008:
3001:
2997:
2993:
2989:
2986:
2981:
2978:
2972:
2969:
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2947:United States
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2903:
2900:
2897:
2894:
2891:
2888:
2885:
2882:
2881:
2880:
2874:
2866:
2865:CPI inflation
2833:
2824:
2815:
2811:
2803:
2798:
2791:United States
2788:
2786:
2782:
2776:
2766:
2764:
2760:
2756:
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2741:
2737:
2735:
2730:
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2722:
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2716:
2706:
2704:
2698:
2696:
2690:
2688:
2684:
2678:
2663:
2661:
2657:
2656:fixed incomes
2653:
2649:
2639:
2637:
2633:
2630:
2625:
2623:
2619:
2615:
2611:
2610:profitability
2607:
2598:
2594:
2591:
2587:
2583:
2568:
2566:
2562:
2561:Walter Heller
2558:
2557:Ronald Reagan
2554:
2550:
2546:
2541:
2535:U.S. politics
2532:
2530:
2525:
2523:
2518:
2516:
2512:
2511:
2496:
2490:
2485:
2483:
2479:
2476:
2472:
2468:
2465:
2461:
2460:New Keynesian
2456:
2454:
2450:
2444:
2441:
2437:
2433:
2429:
2425:
2421:
2418:expansionary
2417:
2413:
2409:
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2396:
2381:
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2375:
2372:
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2327:
2324:
2321:
2318:
2317:
2313:
2310:
2307:
2304:
2301:
2300:
2296:
2294:Current Value
2293:
2290:
2287:
2284:
2283:
2277:
2271:
2269:
2262:
2258:
2254:
2250:
2246:
2243:
2239:
2235:
2232:
2228:
2224:
2219:
2215:
2211:
2207:
2203:
2200:
2197:
2194:
2191:
2188:
2184:
2181:
2178:
2175:
2172:
2171:
2170:
2164:
2160:
2156:
2155:
2154:
2148:
2146:
2143:
2139:
2136:
2135:
2134:
2128:
2125:
2122:
2119:
2115:
2111:
2107:
2103:
2100:
2097:
2094:
2093:
2092:
2086:
2082:
2081:
2080:
2074:
2073:
2072:
2066:
2062:
2059:
2055:
2051:
2047:
2044:
2039:
2035:
2032:
2031:
2030:
2023:
2019:
2015:
2011:
2010:
2009:
2003:
2000:
1996:
1993:
1989:
1986:
1982:
1979:
1975:
1971:
1968:
1965:
1961:
1960:
1959:
1953:
1949:
1946:
1942:
1938:
1935:
1931:
1930:
1929:
1922:
1918:
1914:
1911:
1907:
1904:
1901:
1897:
1892:
1889:
1886:
1885:
1884:
1878:
1877:
1876:
1870:
1866:
1863:
1858:
1854:
1851:
1847:
1842:
1838:
1835:
1831:
1828:
1824:
1820:
1819:
1818:
1811:
1808:
1805:
1804:
1803:
1797:
1796:ripple effect
1792:
1789:
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1787:
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1777:
1773:
1770:
1767:
1764:
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1757:
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1746:
1742:
1731:
1729:
1726:
1723:
1722:
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1715:
1711:
1710:Deutsche Bank
1707:
1703:
1698:
1688:
1680:
1677:
1673:
1669:
1665:
1661:
1657:
1656:
1655:
1649:
1645:
1641:
1640:overleveraged
1637:
1636:Minsky Moment
1634:
1631:
1627:
1626:economic boom
1623:
1620:
1617:
1614:
1611:
1608:
1604:
1601:
1597:
1593:
1592:business risk
1589:
1585:
1581:
1577:
1573:
1572:systemic risk
1569:
1565:
1561:
1558:
1556:consumption).
1554:
1551:
1550:
1549:
1543:
1542:Demand shocks
1540:
1537:
1532:
1529:
1526:
1525:Supply shocks
1523:
1522:
1521:
1518:
1509:
1506:
1501:
1497:
1492:
1489:
1485:
1474:
1471:
1467:
1463:
1459:
1455:
1451:
1448:". Economist
1447:
1443:
1439:
1435:
1425:
1421:
1418:
1413:
1411:
1406:
1402:
1398:
1392:
1390:
1385:
1381:
1376:
1375:balance sheet
1369:
1359:
1357:
1356:normalcy bias
1353:
1349:
1344:
1340:
1339:
1334:
1333:psychological
1330:
1325:
1315:
1313:
1309:
1305:
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1201:
1199:
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1187:
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1170:United States
1166:
1160:
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1150:
1147:
1143:
1142:
1141:
1139:
1136:
1132:
1131:
1120:
1118:
1114:
1110:
1105:
1103:
1099:
1095:
1091:
1087:
1086:United States
1082:
1080:
1076:
1072:
1068:
1067:anthropogenic
1064:
1060:
1056:
1052:
1048:
1044:
1040:
1028:
1023:
1021:
1016:
1014:
1009:
1008:
1006:
1005:
999:
996:
994:
991:
989:
986:
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980:
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977:
973:
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961:
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948:
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876:
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865:
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851:
846:
845:
843:
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837:
832:
827:
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815:
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813:
812:
805:
802:
800:
797:
795:
792:
788:
785:
784:
783:
780:
778:
775:
773:
770:
769:
763:
762:
755:
752:
750:
747:
745:
742:
740:
737:
735:
732:
730:
729:Peter Diamond
727:
725:
722:
720:
717:
715:
714:Edmund Phelps
712:
710:
707:
705:
702:
700:
697:
695:
692:
690:
689:Richard Stone
687:
685:
682:
680:
677:
675:
674:Joan Robinson
672:
670:
669:Simon Kuznets
667:
665:
664:Gunnar Myrdal
662:
660:
657:
655:
652:
650:
647:
645:
642:
640:
639:Irving Fisher
637:
635:
634:Knut Wicksell
632:
630:
627:
625:
622:
620:
617:
615:
612:
610:
607:
606:
603:
598:
597:
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582:
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573:
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569:
568:
565:
563:
560:
556:
553:
552:
551:
548:
546:
543:
542:
541:
540:
534:
531:
529:
526:
524:
521:
519:
516:
512:
509:
508:
507:
506:New classical
504:
502:
499:
495:
492:
490:
487:
486:
485:
482:
481:
480:
475:
470:
469:
462:
459:
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454:
452:
449:
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444:
442:
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397:
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389:
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384:
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379:
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372:
369:
367:
364:
362:
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357:
354:
352:
349:
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344:
342:
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337:
334:
333:
327:
326:
319:
316:
314:
311:
309:
306:
304:
301:
299:
296:
295:
289:
288:
281:
278:
276:
273:
271:
268:
266:
263:
261:
260:Shrinkflation
258:
256:
253:
251:
248:
246:
243:
239:
236:
235:
234:
231:
229:
226:
222:
219:
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209:
205:
202:
201:
200:
197:
195:
192:
188:
185:
183:
180:
178:
175:
174:
173:
170:
168:
165:
163:
160:
158:
157:Interest rate
155:
151:
148:
146:
143:
142:
141:
138:
136:
133:
131:
128:
124:
121:
119:
116:
115:
114:Expectations
113:
111:
108:
106:
103:
101:
98:
96:
93:
91:
88:
86:
83:
81:
78:
76:
73:
72:
66:
65:
61:
57:
56:
53:
50:
49:
45:
41:
40:
37:
33:
19:
9450:Unemployment
9334:South Africa
9091:South Africa
8937:Black Friday
8754:Unemployment
8689:
8611:Money supply
8606:Disinflation
8550:General glut
8451:
8444:"Recessions"
8422:
8397:. Retrieved
8388:
8379:
8357:(1): 40–53.
8354:
8350:
8340:
8331:
8318:
8306:. Retrieved
8297:
8288:
8276:. Retrieved
8272:the original
8262:
8250:. Retrieved
8239:
8227:. Retrieved
8213:
8194:
8186:the original
8176:
8164:. Retrieved
8160:the original
8149:
8137:. Retrieved
8122:
8110:. Retrieved
8096:
8077:
8058:
8046:. Retrieved
8037:
8027:
8015:. Retrieved
8006:
7993:
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7963:. Retrieved
7954:
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7938:
7923:
7911:. Retrieved
7902:
7892:
7880:. Retrieved
7860:
7849:
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7831:. Retrieved
7822:
7813:
7801:. Retrieved
7792:
7783:
7771:. Retrieved
7757:
7745:. Retrieved
7730:
7718:. Retrieved
7714:the original
7689:. Retrieved
7675:
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7657:
7646:, retrieved
7636:
7629:
7618:, retrieved
7614:the original
7609:
7600:
7589:, retrieved
7579:
7573:
7563:17 September
7561:. Retrieved
7549:
7524:17 September
7522:. Retrieved
7513:
7488:. Retrieved
7468:
7456:. Retrieved
7452:the original
7390:
7378:. Retrieved
7369:
7360:
7326:. Retrieved
7317:
7307:
7295:. Retrieved
7291:the original
7256:
7248:the original
7243:
7233:
7210:
7198:. Retrieved
7184:
7174:10 September
7172:. Retrieved
7161:
7151:
7139:. Retrieved
7130:
7120:
7110:
7108:
7101:. Retrieved
7087:
7072:
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7038:
7028:
7016:. Retrieved
7007:
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6858:. Retrieved
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6573:. Retrieved
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6534:. Retrieved
6525:
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6442:
6417:. Retrieved
6408:
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6316:
6307:
6298:
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6279:
6267:. Retrieved
6258:
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6237:. Retrieved
6228:
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6207:. Retrieved
6198:
6189:
6177:. Retrieved
6172:
6163:
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6132:. Retrieved
6119:
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6088:. Retrieved
6079:
6069:
6057:. Retrieved
6053:the original
6048:
6038:
6026:. Retrieved
6017:
6007:
5995:. Retrieved
5986:
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5904:
5894:
5885:
5875:
5866:
5856:
5846:17 September
5844:. Retrieved
5836:ThinkAdvisor
5835:
5825:
5807:
5795:. Retrieved
5786:
5776:
5767:
5757:
5740:
5730:
5721:
5711:
5702:
5692:
5683:
5673:
5663:21 September
5661:. Retrieved
5652:
5642:
5625:
5621:
5615:
5603:. Retrieved
5588:
5579:
5569:
5557:. Retrieved
5548:
5539:
5527:. Retrieved
5518:
5509:
5499:18 September
5497:. Retrieved
5488:
5478:
5469:
5459:
5442:
5438:
5432:
5420:. Retrieved
5411:
5402:
5390:. Retrieved
5381:
5371:
5363:FOX Business
5362:
5352:
5340:. Retrieved
5331:
5321:
5309:. Retrieved
5300:
5290:
5278:. Retrieved
5269:
5259:
5249:17 September
5247:. Retrieved
5239:ThinkAdvisor
5238:
5228:
5216:. Retrieved
5207:
5198:
5189:
5176:
5167:
5157:
5145:. Retrieved
5136:
5127:
5118:
5108:
5098:13 September
5096:. Retrieved
5087:
5077:
5067:13 September
5065:. Retrieved
5056:
5046:
5037:
5028:
5018:18 September
5016:. Retrieved
4996:
4986:18 September
4984:. Retrieved
4975:
4965:
4953:. Retrieved
4944:
4934:
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4915:
4906:
4896:
4887:
4874:
4862:. Retrieved
4850:
4846:
4836:
4827:
4817:
4805:. Retrieved
4792:
4780:. Retrieved
4765:
4753:. Retrieved
4725:
4721:
4708:
4696:. Retrieved
4682:
4672:25 September
4670:. Retrieved
4650:
4636:
4626:25 September
4624:. Retrieved
4610:
4591:
4579:. Retrieved
4575:the original
4565:
4536:
4518:
4503:
4492:
4482:
4473:
4463:
4454:
4444:
4435:
4425:
4416:
4406:
4397:
4387:
4378:
4368:
4359:
4349:
4337:. Retrieved
4328:
4296:
4289:
4277:. Retrieved
4263:
4242:
4234:
4222:. Retrieved
4208:
4181:
4171:
4159:. Retrieved
4150:
4140:
4128:. Retrieved
4119:
4109:
4097:. Retrieved
4088:
4078:
4066:. Retrieved
4057:
4047:
4028:
4018:
4006:. Retrieved
3997:
3987:
3975:. Retrieved
3966:
3956:
3936:
3929:
3917:. Retrieved
3903:
3891:. Retrieved
3882:
3872:
3860:. Retrieved
3856:the original
3846:
3827:
3823:
3813:
3805:the original
3794:
3782:. Retrieved
3775:the original
3770:
3733:
3713:
3704:
3695:
3683:. Retrieved
3678:
3669:
3657:. Retrieved
3653:
3643:
3631:. Retrieved
3616:
3604:. Retrieved
3589:
3577:. Retrieved
3566:
3557:
3547:
3535:. Retrieved
3506:. Retrieved
3500:
3490:
3478:. Retrieved
3461:
3451:
3439:. Retrieved
3422:
3412:
3400:. Retrieved
3383:
3373:
3367:
3355:. Retrieved
3344:
3334:
3322:. Retrieved
3311:
3301:
3289:. Retrieved
3285:the original
3259:
3235:. Retrieved
3231:
3222:
3210:. Retrieved
3201:
3192:
3184:www.nber.org
3183:
3174:
3165:
3155:
3143:. Retrieved
3139:the original
3133:
3126:
3115:
3106:
3031:Disinflation
2998:
2994:
2990:
2982:
2973:
2965:
2950:
2937:
2922:
2918:
2911:
2907:
2877:
2778:
2747:
2738:
2734:Black Monday
2731:
2723:
2712:
2703:World War II
2699:
2694:
2691:
2680:
2645:
2626:
2606:Productivity
2604:
2595:
2579:
2576:Unemployment
2571:Consequences
2549:Paul Volcker
2542:
2538:
2526:
2519:
2508:
2506:
2503:Stock market
2494:
2487:
2480:
2471:Paul Krugman
2469:
2457:
2445:
2398:
2382:August 2024
2365:August 2024
2348:August 2024
2331:August 2024
2314:August 2024
2275:
2265:
2253:Claudia Sahm
2168:
2152:
2132:
2090:
2078:
2070:
2028:
2007:
1983:Declines in
1957:
1927:
1883:Employment:
1882:
1874:
1816:
1801:
1785:
1753:
1750:
1738:
1714:Paul Krugman
1694:
1685:
1653:
1648:Hyman Minsky
1547:
1536:hard landing
1519:
1515:
1496:Janet Yellen
1493:
1488:Hyman Minsky
1480:
1470:mercantilist
1466:inflationary
1450:Paul Krugman
1431:
1422:
1414:
1405:money supply
1393:
1380:Paul Krugman
1371:
1336:
1321:
1296:
1283:recessions.
1258:
1243:
1239:
1227:
1216:
1206:
1202:
1194:retail sales
1167:
1164:
1128:
1126:
1106:
1083:
1059:supply shock
1051:demand shock
1042:
1036:
949:
749:Paul Krugman
694:Hyman Minsky
654:Alvin Hansen
538:
537:
478:
441:Econometrics
418:Overshooting
371:Harrod–Domar
366:Arrow–Debreu
313:Central bank
280:Unemployment
270:Supply shock
254:
228:Money supply
105:Disinflation
100:Demand shock
36:
9402:New Zealand
9360:2020–2022;
9324:New Zealand
9297:2007–2009;
9243:1990–1991;
9227:(1982–2007)
9195:1980–1982;
9167:(1973–1982)
9145:(1957–1958)
9139:(1953–1954)
9133:(1948–1949)
9121:(1945–1973)
9086:New Zealand
9069:1929–1939;
9045:(1918–1919)
9036:(1918–1939)
9018:(1910–1912)
9012:(1907–1908)
9006:(1902–1904)
8997:(1893–1897)
8991:(1890–1891)
8967:1873–1879;
8956:(1870–1914)
8939:(1869–1870)
8933:(1865–1867)
8924:(1857–1858)
8915:(1847–1848)
8903:(1840–1870)
8874:(1825–1826)
8865:(1815–1821)
8850:(1796–1799)
8844:(1789–1793)
8816:1772–1774;
8805:(1760–1840)
8783:(1430–1490)
8781:Great Slump
8774:(1000–1760)
8720:Stagflation
8679:Yield curve
8625:Price level
8399:26 November
8248:. Bloomberg
8221:. Bea.gov.
7720:26 November
7045:(13): 160.
7018:26 November
6972:10419/60825
6647:1 September
5445:: 386–400.
5392:1 September
5301:Marketwatch
5057:Marketplace
4955:1 September
4698:26 November
4581:14 February
4161:26 November
4130:26 November
4068:26 November
3679:www.bea.gov
3281:HM Treasury
3212:29 December
3145:19 November
3112:"recession"
3081:Stagflation
3051:Foreclosure
2904:: 18 months
2886:: 15 months
2715:depressions
2522:real estate
2432:Supply-side
2408:Monetarists
1990:Decreasing
1939:Decline in
1932:Decline in
1667:recessions.
1600:profit risk
1598:as well as
1568:market risk
1553:Credit risk
1256:near zero.
1254:net exports
1182:real income
1123:Definitions
902:Advertising
629:Léon Walras
523:Supply-side
356:Accelerator
265:Stagflation
250:Price level
145:Demand-pull
9445:Recessions
9439:Categories
9367:Bangladesh
9304:Bangladesh
8948:Gilded Age
8700:Depression
8652:Stagnation
8308:29 January
8278:29 January
8252:29 January
8229:29 January
8166:29 January
7773:6 February
7747:29 January
7328:7 February
7297:22 January
6536:29 January
5905:MarketBeat
5703:MarketBeat
4782:7 December
4512:. Reuters.
4279:29 January
4151:Voxeu.org)
4099:29 January
3977:29 January
3919:29 January
3893:29 January
3346:CPA Canada
3291:25 October
3098:References
3026:Depression
2928:Late 2000s
2898:: 8 months
2892:: 8 months
2873:Recessions
2620:, such as
2393:See also:
2297:Last Data
1997:Weakening
1994:shipments.
1976:) and the
1950:Increased
1846:Dow Theory
1821:Declining
1691:Predictors
1594:like e.g.
1588:model risk
1586:like e.g.
1578:like e.g.
1570:like e.g.
1267:, such as
1244:Economist
1236:Attributes
1223:output gap
1111:, such as
912:Capitalism
684:John Hicks
614:Adam Smith
572:Circuitism
562:Ecological
550:Chartalism
501:Monetarism
479:Mainstream
376:Solow–Swan
351:Multiplier
308:Commercial
204:Endogenous
162:Investment
9407:Singapore
9362:Australia
9339:Sri Lanka
9299:Australia
9245:Australia
9071:Australia
9061:1926–1927
9058:1923–1924
9024:(1913–14)
9000:1899–1900
8856:1807–1810
8853:1802–1804
8834:1785–1788
8759:Sahm rule
8690:Recession
8591:Inflation
8587:Deflation
8475:163149563
8467:317650570
8423:Recession
8371:1558-884X
8298:USA Today
7620:11 August
7591:11 August
7051:0012-9976
6981:0889-3365
6957:: 59–60.
6854:Brookings
6720:GuruFocus
6702:GuruFocus
6575:25 August
6471:253717746
6463:0377-7332
6179:22 August
6090:29 August
6059:29 August
6028:29 August
5997:29 August
5945:: 18–40.
5797:30 August
5559:22 August
5549:GuruFocus
5529:22 August
5519:GuruFocus
5422:25 August
5342:29 August
5311:29 August
5280:27 August
5218:22 August
5208:GuruFocus
5147:22 August
5137:GuruFocus
4755:25 August
3502:CNN Money
3470:0362-4331
3431:0362-4331
3392:0362-4331
3357:23 August
3324:23 August
3232:eabcn.org
3202:eabcn.org
3021:Deflation
2867:year/year
2726:inflation
2709:Australia
2555:, before
2424:Keynesian
2037:strained.
1900:Sahm rule
1644:liquidity
1606:activity.
1438:Keynesian
1308:Hong Kong
1190:wholesale
1043:recession
1039:economics
950:Recession
782:Economics
624:Karl Marx
539:Heterodox
518:Stockholm
484:Keynesian
255:Recession
150:Cost-push
140:Inflation
95:Deflation
9392:Malaysia
9377:Botswana
9329:Pakistan
9319:Malaysia
8823:Scotland
8683:Inverted
8647:Recovery
8471:50016270
8393:Archived
8389:nber.org
8332:Newsweek
8302:Archived
8223:Archived
8202:Archived
8139:10 April
8133:Archived
8106:Archived
8085:Archived
8066:Archived
8048:10 March
8042:Archived
8017:10 April
8011:Archived
7983:Archived
7965:10 March
7959:Archived
7931:Archived
7913:4 August
7907:Archived
7882:26 April
7873:Archived
7827:Archived
7797:Archived
7767:Archived
7741:Archived
7685:Archived
7667:BBC News
7642:archived
7585:archived
7554:Archived
7518:Archived
7490:16 April
7481:Archived
7458:15 April
7426:Archived
7399:Archived
7380:15 April
7374:Archived
7349:Archived
7322:Archived
7264:Archived
7218:Archived
7194:Archived
7168:Archived
7141:10 April
7135:Archived
7097:Archived
7059:40278675
7012:Archived
6989:16071568
6916:(1): 38.
6890:(1): 54.
6860:5 August
6641:Archived
6566:Archived
6530:Archived
6486:Archived
6419:20 March
6413:Archived
6388:Archived
6368:Archived
6263:Archived
6233:Archived
6203:Archived
6134:4 August
6128:Archived
6108:Archived
6084:Archived
6022:Archived
5991:Archived
5840:Archived
5814:Archived
5791:Archived
5657:Archived
5599:Archived
5553:Archived
5523:Archived
5493:Archived
5416:Archived
5414:. 2016.
5412:phys.org
5386:Archived
5336:Archived
5305:Archived
5274:Archived
5243:Archived
5212:Archived
5141:Archived
5092:Archived
5061:Archived
5009:Archived
4980:Archived
4949:Archived
4864:5 August
4807:4 August
4801:Archived
4776:Archived
4746:Archived
4742:11641969
4692:Archived
4663:Archived
4620:Archived
4599:Archived
4544:Archived
4333:Archived
4273:Archived
4224:5 August
4155:Archived
4124:Archived
4093:Archived
4062:Archived
4002:Archived
3971:Archived
3913:Archived
3887:Archived
3784:3 August
3654:KUSA.com
3627:Archived
3600:Archived
3598:. CNBC.
3537:20 March
3531:Archived
3508:8 August
3474:Archived
3435:Archived
3396:Archived
3351:Archived
3318:Archived
3260:BBC News
3206:Archived
3004:See also
2909:growth.
2781:COVID-19
2750:Eurozone
2687:real GDP
2652:salaries
2622:COVID-19
2601:Business
2492:—
2422:, while
1958:Retail:
1827:shipping
1823:trucking
1682:economy.
1505:feedback
1312:Thailand
1281:W-shaped
1277:L-shaped
1273:U-shaped
1269:V-shaped
1212:real GDP
1178:real GDP
1075:pandemic
1073:(e.g. a
907:Business
879:a series
877:Part of
766:See also
545:Austrian
303:Monetary
292:Policies
123:Rational
118:Adaptive
44:a series
42:Part of
9397:Namibia
8985:1887–88
8927:1860–61
8918:1853–54
8909:1845–46
8880:1833–34
8877:1828–29
8868:1822–23
8818:England
8710:Rolling
8596:Chronic
8450:(ed.).
8131:. CNN.
8112:31 July
7833:29 July
7803:19 July
7739:. CNN.
7610:The Age
7200:8 March
7111:leading
7103:16 June
6722:. 2024.
6704:. 2024.
6686:. 2024.
6669:. 2024.
6596:3435667
6239:19 July
5787:Reuters
5605:18 July
3862:31 July
3685:31 July
3659:31 July
3633:28 July
3606:28 July
3579:28 July
3480:27 July
3441:27 July
3402:27 July
3237:30 July
2988:1940s.
2977:Moody's
2763:Italian
2666:History
2632:mergers
2590:GDP gap
2436:capital
2416:limited
2259:bank's
1759:months.
1743:of the
1168:In the
1084:In the
787:Applied
584:Marxian
474:Schools
9422:Zambia
9382:Canada
9372:Belize
9309:Canada
9274:(2001)
9250:Canada
9197:Canada
9076:Canada
8747:Supply
8742:Demand
8715:Shapes
8705:Global
8615:demand
8540:Supply
8465:
8420:about
8369:
7691:23 May
7648:3 June
7079:
7057:
7049:
6987:
6979:
6828:
6799:
6772:
6743:
6619:months
6594:
6469:
6461:
5088:Forbes
4740:
4339:4 June
4304:
4251:
4196:
4035:
4008:13 May
3998:Medium
3944:
3834:
3740:
3468:
3429:
3390:
2959:) and
2870:
2863:
2861:
2855:
2849:
2843:
2837:
2830:
2828:
2821:
2819:
2759:German
2755:French
2671:Global
2614:Brexit
2379:-0.25%
2362:-5.06%
2345:-0.38%
2308:< 0
2158:down.”
2109:level.
2049:yield.
1672:export
1354:, and
1350:, the
1188:, and
1102:Canada
927:Retail
602:People
330:Models
298:Fiscal
275:Saving
135:Growth
9387:India
9314:India
9081:India
8737:Shock
8555:Model
8446:. In
7876:(PDF)
7869:(PDF)
7557:(PDF)
7546:(PDF)
7484:(PDF)
7477:(PDF)
7055:JSTOR
6985:S2CID
6932:(PDF)
6906:(PDF)
6880:(PDF)
6850:(PDF)
6569:(PDF)
6556:(PDF)
6467:S2CID
6269:6 May
6209:6 May
5186:(PDF)
5012:(PDF)
5005:(PDF)
4884:(PDF)
4749:(PDF)
4738:S2CID
4718:(PDF)
4666:(PDF)
4659:(PDF)
4494:Axios
4218:(PDF)
3778:(PDF)
3767:(PDF)
2464:model
2328:-4.8%
2311:-1.20
1934:wages
1436:is a
1324:money
1304:Korea
1045:is a
965:Shock
922:Money
917:Labor
423:NAIRU
341:AD–AS
336:IS–LM
199:Money
9127:1945
8859:1812
8523:and
8519:and
8463:OCLC
8401:2018
8367:ISSN
8310:2011
8280:2011
8254:2011
8231:2011
8168:2011
8141:2010
8114:2010
8050:2020
8019:2010
7967:2020
7915:2017
7884:2009
7835:2022
7823:NBER
7805:2021
7793:NBER
7775:2010
7749:2011
7722:2018
7693:2022
7650:2020
7622:2015
7593:2015
7565:2013
7526:2013
7492:2013
7460:2009
7382:2009
7330:2017
7299:2010
7244:Time
7202:2008
7176:2017
7143:2010
7105:2009
7077:ISBN
7047:ISSN
7020:2018
6977:ISSN
6862:2022
6826:ISBN
6797:ISBN
6770:ISBN
6741:ISBN
6667:CNBC
6649:2024
6592:SSRN
6577:2019
6538:2011
6459:ISSN
6421:2020
6271:2020
6241:2021
6211:2020
6181:2024
6136:2024
6092:2024
6061:2024
6030:2024
6018:CNBC
5999:2024
5848:2024
5799:2024
5665:2024
5607:2024
5561:2024
5531:2024
5501:2019
5424:2019
5394:2024
5344:2024
5313:2024
5282:2024
5251:2024
5220:2024
5149:2024
5100:2024
5069:2024
5020:2019
4988:2019
4957:2024
4866:2024
4809:2024
4784:2022
4757:2019
4700:2018
4674:2019
4628:2019
4583:2020
4341:2019
4302:ISBN
4281:2011
4249:ISBN
4226:2022
4194:ISBN
4163:2018
4132:2018
4101:2011
4070:2018
4033:ISBN
4010:2020
3979:2011
3942:ISBN
3921:2011
3895:2011
3864:2010
3832:ISBN
3786:2022
3738:ISBN
3687:2022
3661:2022
3635:2022
3608:2022
3581:2022
3539:2020
3510:2022
3482:2022
3466:ISSN
3443:2022
3427:ISSN
3404:2022
3388:ISSN
3359:2024
3326:2024
3293:2012
3239:2022
3214:2021
3147:2008
2983:The
2966:The
2951:The
2761:and
2748:The
2646:The
2520:The
2247:The
2208:The
2063:The
1856:U.S.
1839:The
1832:The
1825:and
1664:wars
1456:and
1279:and
1217:The
1100:and
1041:, a
489:Neo-
396:DSGE
90:CAGR
8359:doi
6967:hdl
6959:doi
6451:doi
6346:doi
6080:CNN
5947:doi
5745:doi
5630:doi
5447:doi
4855:doi
4730:doi
4186:doi
2658:or
2370:Yes
2353:Yes
2336:Yes
2319:Yes
2302:Yes
2138:GDP
2096:Oil
2052:An
1780:Fed
1776:ISM
1716:or
1115:or
1090:GDP
1079:IMF
1069:or
1037:In
494:New
238:SNA
187:NNI
182:GNI
177:GDP
9441::
8473:,
8469:,
8387:.
8365:.
8353:.
8349:.
8330:.
8296:.
8040:.
8036:.
8009:.
8005:.
7957:.
7953:.
7905:.
7901:.
7825:.
7821:.
7791:.
7701:^
7665:.
7608:,
7548:.
7534:^
7516:.
7512:.
7500:^
7437:^
7409:^
7368:.
7338:^
7320:.
7316:.
7275:^
7242:.
7166:.
7160:.
7133:.
7129:.
7107:.
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