36:
398:(SSSA), which replaces "observers" in the SSA definition by "observer-moments". This coincides with the intuition that an observer who lives longer has more opportunities to experience herself existing, and it provides flexibility to refine reference classes in certain thought experiments in order to avoid paradoxical conclusions.
140:
512:, SIA is not dependent on the choice of reference class, as long as the reference class is large enough to contain all subjectively indistinguishable observers. If the reference class is large, SIA will make it more likely, but this is compensated by the much reduced probability that the agent will be
290:
For instance, if there is a coin flip that on heads will create one observer, while on tails it will create two, then we have two possible worlds, the first with one observer, the second with two. These worlds are equally probable, hence the SSA probability of being the first (and only) observer in
446:
For instance, if there is a coin flip that on heads will create one observer, while on tails it will create two, then we have three possible observers (1st observer on heads, 1st on tails, 2nd on tails). Each of these observers have an equal probability for existence, so SIA assigns
365:
dependent on the choice of reference class. If the agents in the above example were in the same reference class as a trillion other observers, then the probability of being in the heads world, upon the agent being told they are in the sleeping beauty problem, is
438:
Note that "randomly selected" is weighted by the probability of the observers existing: under SIA you are still unlikely to be an unlikely observer, unless there are a lot of them. It is one of the two major schools of anthropic probability, the other being the
457:
probability to each. Alternatively, this could be interpreted as saying there are two possible observers (1st observer on either heads or tails, 2nd observer on tails), the first existing with probability one and the second existing with probability
253:
is biased by "observation selection effects", in other words, when the evidence presented has been pre-filtered by the condition that there was some appropriately positioned observer to "receive" the evidence. This conundrum is sometimes called the
946:
804:
585:
524:
604:
Nick
Bostrom originally used the term SIA in a slightly different way. What is here referred to as SIA, he referred to as the combined SSA+SIA
953:
747:
797:
17:
868:
790:
100:
72:
654:
216:
79:
119:
932:
563:
975:
53:
86:
995:
57:
908:
985:
980:
813:
68:
893:
430:
All other things equal, an observer should reason as if they are randomly selected from the set of all
282:
All other things equal, an observer should reason as if they are randomly selected from the set of all
275:
990:
939:
898:
873:
751:
509:
440:
227:
502:
355:
46:
774:
551:
925:
903:
713:
93:
8:
883:
575:
536:
520:
384:
255:
168:
694:
676:
625:
580:
566:
said the book "deserves a place on the shelf" of those interested in these subjects.
540:
528:
380:
211:
698:
728:
686:
847:
832:
667:
Olum, Ken (2002). "The
Doomsday Argument and the Number of Possible Observers".
852:
782:
331:, and the probability of being the second observer in the tails world is also
969:
888:
415:
274:), one of the two major schools of anthropic probability—the other being the
732:
690:
878:
837:
827:
547:
532:
419:
246:
150:
748:"Anthropic Bias: Observation Selection Effects in Science and Philosophy"
714:"The doomsday argument and the self-indication assumption: reply to Olum"
139:
133:
Anthropic Bias: Observation
Selection Effects in Science and Philosophy
776:
Anthropic Bias: Observation
Selection Effects in Science and Philosophy
655:
Anthropic Bias: Observation
Selection Effects in Science and Philosophy
424:
Anthropic Bias: Observation
Selection Effects in Science and Philosophy
392:
Anthropic Bias: Observation
Selection Effects in Science and Philosophy
243:
239:
Anthropic Bias: Observation
Selection Effects in Science and Philosophy
681:
488:
to being the second - which is the same as the first interpretation.
178:
35:
842:
250:
539:, and Ken Olum has suggested it is important to the analysis of
383:
depending on the choice of reference class. It is often used in
286:
observers (past, present and future) in their reference class.
249:. Bostrom investigates how to reason when one suspects that
711:
535:
in 1992) it has general applications in the philosophy of
301:, that of being the first observer in the tails world is
258:", "self-locating belief", or "indexical information".
586:
Self-indication assumption doomsday argument rebuttal
60:. Unsourced material may be challenged and removed.
394:, has suggested refining SSA to what he calls the
967:
812:
954:Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies
798:
401:
546:Ken Olum has written in defense of the SIA.
261:
805:
791:
626:"Anthropic Bias | anthropic-principle.com"
138:
680:
649:
647:
645:
120:Learn how and when to remove this message
14:
968:
869:Differential technological development
745:
642:
786:
712:Nick Bostrom; Milan Cirkovic (2003).
666:
58:adding citations to reliable sources
29:
491:This is why SIA gives an answer of
344:This is why SSA gives an answer of
24:
25:
1007:
768:
564:Virginia Commonwealth University
478:to being the first observer and
34:
516:in the larger reference class.
396:strong self-sampling assumption
45:needs additional citations for
739:
705:
660:
618:
598:
13:
1:
611:
554:have critiqued this defense.
523:was originally designed as a
814:Future of Humanity Institute
657:(New York: Routledge, 2002).
501:probability of heads in the
354:probability of heads in the
7:
746:Manson, Neil (2003-02-09).
630:www.anthropic-principle.com
569:
10:
1012:
894:Self-indication assumption
557:
408:self-indication assumption
402:Self-indication assumption
276:self-indication assumption
933:Global Catastrophic Risks
917:
861:
820:
222:
210:
202:
194:
184:
174:
164:
156:
146:
137:
27:2002 book by Nick Bostrom
899:Self-sampling assumption
874:Global catastrophic risk
752:University of Notre Dame
591:
441:self-sampling assumption
268:self-sampling assumption
262:Self-sampling assumption
18:Self-sampling assumption
733:10.1111/1467-9213.00298
721:Philosophical Quarterly
691:10.1111/1467-9213.00260
669:Philosophical Quarterly
503:Sleeping Beauty Problem
356:Sleeping Beauty problem
976:2002 non-fiction books
996:Works by Nick Bostrom
904:Simulation hypothesis
514:that particular agent
418:principle defined by
390:Bostrom, in his book
242:(2002) is a book by
54:improve this article
986:Books about science
981:Anthropic principle
576:Anthropic principle
537:anthropic reasoning
521:anthropic principle
508:Notice that unlike
385:anthropic reasoning
291:the heads world is
278:(SIA)—states that:
256:anthropic principle
169:Anthropic principle
134:
581:Bayesian inference
426:. It states that:
379:SSA may imply the
376:, similar to SIA.
132:
963:
962:
940:Human Enhancement
541:quantum cosmology
529:doomsday argument
468:, so SIA assigns
381:doomsday argument
284:actually existent
235:
234:
228:Human Enhancement
130:
129:
122:
104:
16:(Redirected from
1003:
884:Pascal's mugging
807:
800:
793:
784:
783:
762:
761:
759:
758:
743:
737:
736:
718:
709:
703:
702:
684:
675:(207): 164–184.
664:
658:
651:
640:
639:
637:
636:
622:
605:
602:
500:
499:
495:
487:
486:
482:
477:
476:
472:
467:
466:
462:
456:
455:
451:
375:
374:
370:
361:Unlike SIA, SSA
353:
352:
348:
340:
339:
335:
330:
329:
325:
320:
319:
315:
310:
309:
305:
300:
299:
295:
223:Followed by
186:Publication date
142:
135:
131:
125:
118:
114:
111:
105:
103:
69:"Anthropic Bias"
62:
38:
30:
21:
1011:
1010:
1006:
1005:
1004:
1002:
1001:
1000:
991:Routledge books
966:
965:
964:
959:
913:
857:
848:Anders Sandberg
833:K. Eric Drexler
816:
811:
771:
766:
765:
756:
754:
744:
740:
716:
710:
706:
665:
661:
652:
643:
634:
632:
624:
623:
619:
614:
609:
608:
603:
599:
594:
572:
560:
497:
493:
492:
484:
480:
479:
474:
470:
469:
464:
460:
459:
453:
449:
448:
404:
372:
368:
367:
350:
346:
345:
337:
333:
332:
327:
323:
322:
317:
313:
312:
307:
303:
302:
297:
293:
292:
264:
195:Media type
187:
126:
115:
109:
106:
63:
61:
51:
39:
28:
23:
22:
15:
12:
11:
5:
1009:
999:
998:
993:
988:
983:
978:
961:
960:
958:
957:
950:
943:
936:
929:
926:Anthropic Bias
921:
919:
915:
914:
912:
911:
906:
901:
896:
891:
886:
881:
876:
871:
865:
863:
859:
858:
856:
855:
853:Rebecca Roache
850:
845:
840:
835:
830:
824:
822:
818:
817:
810:
809:
802:
795:
787:
781:
780:
770:
769:External links
767:
764:
763:
738:
727:(210): 83–91.
704:
659:
653:Nick Bostrom,
641:
616:
615:
613:
610:
607:
606:
596:
595:
593:
590:
589:
588:
583:
578:
571:
568:
562:A review from
559:
556:
552:Milan Ćirković
519:Although this
436:
435:
403:
400:
288:
287:
263:
260:
233:
232:
224:
220:
219:
217:978-0415883948
214:
208:
207:
204:
200:
199:
196:
192:
191:
188:
185:
182:
181:
176:
172:
171:
166:
162:
161:
158:
154:
153:
148:
144:
143:
128:
127:
42:
40:
33:
26:
9:
6:
4:
3:
2:
1008:
997:
994:
992:
989:
987:
984:
982:
979:
977:
974:
973:
971:
956:
955:
951:
949:
948:
947:The Precipice
944:
942:
941:
937:
935:
934:
930:
928:
927:
923:
922:
920:
916:
910:
907:
905:
902:
900:
897:
895:
892:
890:
889:Reversal test
887:
885:
882:
880:
877:
875:
872:
870:
867:
866:
864:
860:
854:
851:
849:
846:
844:
841:
839:
836:
834:
831:
829:
826:
825:
823:
819:
815:
808:
803:
801:
796:
794:
789:
788:
785:
779:
777:
773:
772:
753:
749:
742:
734:
730:
726:
722:
715:
708:
700:
696:
692:
688:
683:
682:gr-qc/0009081
678:
674:
670:
663:
656:
650:
648:
646:
631:
627:
621:
617:
601:
597:
587:
584:
582:
579:
577:
574:
573:
567:
565:
555:
553:
549:
544:
542:
538:
534:
530:
526:
522:
517:
515:
511:
506:
504:
489:
444:
442:
433:
429:
428:
427:
425:
421:
417:
416:philosophical
413:
409:
399:
397:
393:
388:
386:
382:
377:
364:
359:
357:
342:
285:
281:
280:
279:
277:
273:
269:
259:
257:
252:
248:
245:
241:
240:
231:
229:
225:
221:
218:
215:
213:
209:
205:
201:
197:
193:
189:
183:
180:
177:
173:
170:
167:
163:
159:
155:
152:
149:
145:
141:
136:
124:
121:
113:
110:November 2023
102:
99:
95:
92:
88:
85:
81:
78:
74:
71: –
70:
66:
65:Find sources:
59:
55:
49:
48:
43:This article
41:
37:
32:
31:
19:
952:
945:
938:
931:
924:
879:Great Filter
838:Robin Hanson
828:Nick Bostrom
775:
755:. Retrieved
741:
724:
720:
707:
672:
668:
662:
633:. Retrieved
629:
620:
600:
561:
548:Nick Bostrom
545:
533:Dennis Dieks
518:
513:
507:
490:
445:
437:
431:
423:
422:in his book
420:Nick Bostrom
411:
407:
405:
395:
391:
389:
378:
362:
360:
343:
289:
283:
271:
267:
265:
247:Nick Bostrom
238:
237:
236:
226:
151:Nick Bostrom
116:
107:
97:
90:
83:
76:
64:
52:Please help
47:verification
44:
778:(full text)
244:philosopher
970:Categories
757:2015-11-21
635:2015-11-03
612:References
434:observers.
80:newspapers
909:Singleton
179:Routledge
175:Publisher
862:Concepts
843:Toby Ord
699:14707647
570:See also
525:rebuttal
432:possible
251:evidence
157:Language
558:Reviews
527:to the
496:⁄
483:⁄
473:⁄
463:⁄
452:⁄
443:(SSA).
414:) is a
371:⁄
349:⁄
336:⁄
326:⁄
316:⁄
306:⁄
296:⁄
165:Subject
160:English
94:scholar
821:People
697:
230:
147:Author
96:
89:
82:
75:
67:
918:Works
717:(PDF)
695:S2CID
677:arXiv
592:Notes
203:Pages
198:Print
101:JSTOR
87:books
550:and
531:(by
406:The
266:The
212:ISBN
190:2002
73:news
729:doi
687:doi
510:SSA
412:SIA
272:SSA
206:240
56:by
972::
750:.
725:53
723:.
719:.
693:.
685:.
673:52
671:.
644:^
628:.
543:.
505:.
494:1
481:1
471:2
461:1
450:1
387:.
369:1
366:≈
363:is
358:.
347:1
341:.
334:1
324:1
321:=
314:1
311:×
304:1
294:1
806:e
799:t
792:v
760:.
735:.
731::
701:.
689::
679::
638:.
498:3
485:3
475:3
465:2
454:3
410:(
373:3
351:2
338:4
328:4
318:2
308:2
298:2
270:(
254:"
123:)
117:(
112:)
108:(
98:·
91:·
84:·
77:·
50:.
20:)
Text is available under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License. Additional terms may apply.