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A company with a low PER indicates that the market perceives it as higher risk or lower growth or both as compared to a company with a higher PER. The PER of a listed company's share is the result of the collective perception of the market as to how risky the company is and what its earnings growth prospects are in relation to that of other companies. Investors use the PER to compare their own perception of the risk and growth of a company against the market's collective perception of the risk and growth as reflected in the current PER. If investors believe that their perception is superior to that of the market, they can make the decision to buy or sell accordingly.
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162:, 2d ed. In the preface to this edition, Shiller warns that "the stock market has not come down to historical levels: the price–earnings ratio as I define it in this book is still, at this writing , in the mid-20s, far higher than the historical average. ... People still place too much confidence in the markets and have too strong a belief that paying attention to the gyrations in their investments will someday make them rich, and so they do not make conservative preparations for possible bad outcomes."
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doing exceptionally well relative to its past trends. The price-to-earnings ratio can also be seen as a means of standardizing the value of one dollar of earnings throughout the stock market. In theory, by taking the median of P/E ratios over a period of several years, one could formulate something of a standardized P/E ratio, which could then be seen as a benchmark and used to indicate whether or not a stock is worth buying. In
461:"confirms that long-term investors—investors who commit their money to an investment for ten full years—did do well when prices were low relative to earnings at the beginning of the ten years. Long-term investors would be well advised, individually, to lower their exposure to the stock market when it is high, as it has been recently, and get into the market when it is low."
453:(inflation adjusted price divided by the prior ten-year mean of inflation-adjusted earnings). The vertical axis shows the geometric average real annual return on investing in the S&P Composite Stock Price Index, reinvesting dividends, and selling twenty years later. Data from different twenty-year periods is color-coded as shown in the key. See also
408:
figures that exclude certain extraordinary events or one-off gains or losses. The definitions may not be standardized. For companies that are loss-making, or whose earnings are expected to change dramatically, a "primary" P/E can be used instead, based on the earnings projections made for the next years to which a discount calculation is applied.
1167:, the extrapolation of past performance is driven by stale investments. State and local governments that are more fiscally stressed by higher unfunded pension liabilities assume higher portfolio returns through higher inflation assumptions, but this factor does not attenuate the extrapolative effects of past returns.
422:
The price/earnings ratio (PER) is the most widely used method for determining whether shares are "correctly" valued in relation to one another. But the PER does not in itself indicate whether the share is a bargain. The PER depends on the market's perception of the risk and future growth in earnings.
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The P/E ratio of a company is a major focus for many managers. They are usually paid in company stock or options on their company's stock (a form of payment that is supposed to align the interests of management with the interests of other stock holders). The stock price can increase in one of two
417:
As the ratio of a stock (share price) to a flow (earnings per share), the P/E ratio has the units of time. It can be interpreted as the amount of time over which the company would need to sustain its current earnings in order to make enough money to pay back the current share price. While the P/E
1162:
In general, a high price–earning ratio indicates that investors are expecting higher growth of company's earnings in the future compared to companies with a lower price–earning ratio. A low price–earning ratio may indicate either that a company may currently be undervalued or that the company is
1148:
Companies with low P/E ratios are usually more open to leveraging their balance sheet. As seen above, this mechanically lowers the P/E ratio, which means the company looks cheaper than it did before leverage, and also improves earnings growth rates. Both of these factors help drive up the share
407:
Variations on the standard trailing and forward P/E ratios are common. Generally, alternative P/E measures substitute different measures of earnings, such as rolling averages over longer periods of time (to attempt to "smooth" volatile or cyclical earnings, for example), or "corrected" earnings
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The average P/E of the market varies in relation with, among other factors, expected growth of earnings, expected stability of earnings, expected inflation, and yields of competing investments. For example, when U.S. treasury bonds yield high returns, investors pay less for a given
1118:
If a company wants to acquire companies with a higher P/E ratio than its own, it usually prefers paying in cash or debt rather than in stock. Though in theory the method of payment makes no difference to value, doing it this way offsets or avoids earnings dilution (see
303:. This is the most common meaning of "P/E" if no other qualifier is specified. Monthly earnings data for individual companies are not available, and in any case usually fluctuate seasonally, so the previous four quarterly earnings reports are used and
1111:
ways: either through improved earnings or through an improved multiple that the market assigns to those earnings. In turn, the primary drivers for multiples such as the P/E ratio is through higher and more sustained earnings growth rates.
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for every dollar of annual earnings; or, if earnings stayed constant it would take 8 years to recoup the share price. Companies with losses (negative earnings) or no profit have an undefined P/E ratio (usually shown as "not applicable" or
1152:
Strictly speaking, the ratio is measured in years, since the price is measured in dollars and earnings are measured in dollars per year. Therefore, the ratio demonstrates how many years it takes to cover the price, if earnings stay the
1144:
accounting" (hiding excess earnings in good years to cover for losses in lean years). Such measures are designed to create the image that the company always slowly but steadily increases profits, with the goal to increase the P/E
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ratio can in principle be given in terms of any time unit, in practice it is essentially always implicitly reported in years, with the unit of "years" rarely indicated explicitly. (This is the convention followed in this article.)
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Conversely, companies with low P/E ratios may be tempted to acquire small high-growth businesses in an effort to "rebrand" their portfolio of activities and burnish their image as growth stocks and thus obtain a higher PE
497:, (2002 edition) he had argued that with favorable developments like the lower capital gains tax rates and transaction costs, P/E ratio in "low twenties" is sustainable, despite being higher than the historic average.
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314:"Trailing P/E from continued operations" uses operating earnings, which exclude earnings from discontinued operations, extraordinary items (e.g. one-off windfalls and write-downs), and accounting changes.
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Consequently, managers have strong incentives to boost earnings per share, even in the short term, and/or improve long-term growth rates. This can influence business decisions in several ways:
321:, this uses estimated net earnings over next 12 months. Estimates are typically derived as the mean of those published by a select group of analysts (selection criteria are rarely cited).
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P/E had risen to 32. The collapse in earnings caused P/E to rise to 46.50 in 2001. It has declined to a more sustainable region of 17. Its decline in recent years has been due to higher
1175:
When a company has no earnings or is posting losses, in both cases P/E will be expressed as "N/A." Though it is possible to calculate a negative P/E, this is not the common convention.
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index has ranged from 4.78 in Dec 1920 to 44.20 in Dec 1999. However, except for some brief periods, during 1920–1990 the market P/E ratio was mostly between 10 and 20.
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Jeremy Siegel has suggested that the average P/E ratio of about 15 (or earnings yield of about 6.6%) arises due to the long-term returns for stocks of about 6.8%. In
272:"); sometimes, however, a negative P/E ratio may be shown. There is a general consensus among most investors that a P/E ratio of around 20 is 'fairly valued'.
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Companies with high P/E ratios but volatile earnings may be tempted to find ways to smooth earnings and diversify risk—this is the theory behind building
196:
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Set out below are the recent year end values of the S&P 500 index and the associated P/E as reported. For a list of recent contractions (
1102:, the trailing P/E ratio reached 38.3 on October 12, 2020. This elevated level was only attained twice in history, 2001-2002 and 2008-2009.
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There are multiple versions of the P/E ratio, depending on whether earnings are projected or realized, and the type of earnings.
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Conversely, companies with higher P/E ratios than their targets are more tempted to use their stock to pay for acquisitions.
1431:"Is the S&P 500 Index now over-valued? What Return Can You Reasonably Expect From Investing in the S&P 500 Index?"
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190:. The ratio is used for valuing companies and to find out whether they are overvalued or undervalued.
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295:"Trailing P/E" uses the weighted average share price of common shares in issue divided by the
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The average U.S. equity P/E ratio from 1900 to 2005 is 14 (or 16, depending on whether the
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221:{\displaystyle {\text{P/E}}={\frac {\text{Share Price}}{\text{Earnings per Share}}}}
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Price–earnings ratios as a predictor of twenty-year returns based upon the plot by
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to calculate the P/E ratio. This formula often gives the same answer as
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Applied
Financial Economics -- Theory with Empirics: Price and Trading
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real price–earnings ratio of the S&P Composite Stock Price Index
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and the earnings per share for the most recent 12-month period is
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years. Put another way, the purchaser of the share is investing
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are updated quarterly. Note, each company chooses its own
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1509:"The Return Expectations of Institutional Investors*"
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so the timing of updates varies from one to another.
67:. Unsourced material may be challenged and removed.
1140:Companies try to smooth earnings, for example by "
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1419:Is the P/E Ratio a Good Market-Timing Indicator?
513:U.S. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions
427:Historical P/E ratios for the U.S. stock market
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30:"P/E" redirects here. For other topics, see
1274:Stock valuation using discounted cash flows
1234:Cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio
1185:Cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio
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1453:"S&P 500 Earnings and Estimate Report"
465:Since 1900, the average P/E ratio for the
127:Learn how and when to remove this message
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287:compared to trailing 12 months P/E ratio
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231:As an example, if share A is trading at
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325:Some people mistakenly use the formula
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1649:Present value of growth opportunities
1569:Cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings
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1222:– the inverse of price–earnings ratio
1195:Present value of growth opportunities
488:, respectively, is used to average).
156:and interest rates (1871–2012), from
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1349:"The Long-Term Price-Earnings Ratio"
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65:adding citations to reliable sources
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1353:The Long-Term Price-Earnings Ratio
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1042:July 1990 – March 1991 contraction
239:, then share A has a P/E ratio of
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1347:Anderson, K.; Brooks, C. (2006).
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1319:Irrational Exuberance (2d ed.)
1190:Price-to-earnings-growth ratio
457:. Shiller stated in 2005 that
182:, is the ratio of a company's
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285:S&P 500 shiller P/E ratio
1581:Cash return on cash invested
1244:Index of accounting articles
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1467:"S&P 500 PE Ratio Data"
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1121:accretion/dilution analysis
972:Low P/E due to high recent
378:number of shares), whereas
301:most recent 12-month period
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1702:Return on capital employed
1324:Princeton University Press
317:"Forward P/E": Instead of
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1714:Return on tangible equity
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1284:Valuation using multiples
1667:Price-earnings to growth
1609:Enterprise value/EBITDA
1200:Price-to-dividend ratio
494:Stocks for the Long Run
186:price to the company's
1621:Enterprise value/sales
1375:"Price Earnings Ratio"
1100:2020 Coronavirus Crash
855:resulting in P/E peak
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76:"Price–earnings ratio"
1433:. investorsfriend.com
1210:Social earnings ratio
1158:Investor expectations
875:burst: 10 March 2000
511:) and expansions see
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451:Irrational Exuberance
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368:market capitalization
331:market capitalization
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159:Irrational Exuberance
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1690:Return on net assets
1249:Outline of economics
1239:Fundamental analysis
1205:Return on investment
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168:price–earnings ratio
154:price–earnings ratio
61:improve this article
1575:Capitalization rate
1264:Stock market bubble
1106:In business culture
32:PE (disambiguation)
18:Price/earning ratio
1748:Sustainable growth
1513:Hoover Institution
1269:Stock market crash
530:EPS growth %
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475:earnings per share
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305:earnings per share
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1564:Buffett indicator
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1131:conglomerates
1128:
1125:
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184:share (stock)
181:
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78: –
77:
73:
72:Find sources:
66:
62:
56:
55:
50:This article
48:
44:
39:
38:
33:
19:
1660:
1512:
1499:
1489:
1482:
1470:. Retrieved
1461:
1447:
1435:. Retrieved
1425:
1414:
1406:Seekingalpha
1405:
1397:
1383:
1369:
1352:
1342:
1318:
1254:Market value
1174:
1161:
1113:
1109:
1097:
1086:
1079:Black Monday
506:
492:
490:
479:
471:
464:
450:
421:
415:
406:
396:
375:
372:market price
351:market price
324:
290:
230:
179:
175:
171:
167:
165:
157:
153:
138:
123:
114:
104:
97:
90:
83:
71:
59:Please help
54:verification
51:
1726:Risk return
1673:Price-sales
1611:(EV/EBITDA)
1437:18 December
1389:"Valuation"
553:2019-12-31
538:2020-09-30
467:S&P 500
211:Share Price
1623:(EV/Sales)
1577:(Cap Rate)
1296:References
1142:slush fund
1065:1988-12-31
1049:1989-12-31
1029:1990-12-31
1013:1991-12-31
997:1992-12-31
981:1993-12-31
960:1994-12-31
944:1995-12-31
928:1996-12-31
912:1997-12-31
896:1998-12-31
880:1999-12-31
860:2000-12-31
840:2001-12-31
824:2002-12-31
808:2003-12-31
792:2004-12-31
776:2005-12-31
760:2006-12-31
744:2007-12-31
728:2008-12-31
712:2009-12-31
696:2010-12-31
680:2011-12-31
664:2012-12-31
648:2013-12-31
632:2014-12-31
616:2015-12-31
600:2016-12-31
584:2017-12-31
568:2018-12-31
509:recessions
389:net income
339:net income
319:net income
297:net income
87:newspapers
1289:Tobin's q
1215:EV/Ebitda
459:this plot
172:P/E ratio
1769:Category
1617:(EV/GCI)
1472:9 August
1316:(2005).
1227:See also
1077:Bottom (
556:3230.78
541:3362.99
533:Comment
299:for the
276:Versions
253:$ 3/year
1754:Treynor
1743:Sortino
1722:(RAROC)
1583:(CROCI)
1137:rating.
899:1229.23
883:1469.25
863:1320.28
843:1148.08
811:1111.92
795:1211.92
779:1248.29
763:1418.30
747:1468.36
715:1115.10
699:1257.64
683:1257.60
667:1426.19
651:1848.36
635:2058.90
619:2043.94
603:2238.83
587:2673.61
571:2506.85
484:or the
402:
385:
376:current
363:
347:
343:
327:
257:
241:
101:scholar
1732:Sharpe
1716:(ROTE)
1704:(ROCE)
1692:(RONA)
1657:(P/CF)
1651:(PVGO)
1571:(CAPE)
1361:739664
1359:
1330:
1149:price.
1145:ratio.
1068:277.72
1052:353.40
1032:330.22
1016:417.09
1000:435.71
984:466.45
963:459.27
947:615.93
931:740.74
915:970.43
827:879.82
731:903.25
559:23.16
544:34.24
524:Index
442:source
103:
96:
89:
82:
74:
1750:(SGR)
1739:(SIR)
1728:(RRR)
1710:(ROE)
1698:(ROC)
1686:(ROA)
1675:(P/S)
1669:(PEG)
1663:(P/E)
1645:(P/B)
1633:Omega
1629:(LTV)
1605:(E/P)
1589:(D/E)
1153:same.
1071:11.69
1055:15.45
1035:15.47
1022:−14.8
1019:26.12
1003:22.82
987:21.31
966:15.01
950:18.14
934:19.13
918:24.43
902:32.60
886:30.50
866:26.41
849:−30.8
846:46.50
830:31.89
814:22.81
798:20.70
782:17.85
766:17.40
750:22.19
734:60.70
718:21.88
702:16.26
686:14.46
670:16.49
654:18.45
638:20.12
622:23.62
606:23.68
590:24.33
574:18.94
521:Date
374:) × (
178:, or
152:real
108:JSTOR
94:books
1474:2023
1439:2010
1357:SSRN
1328:ISBN
1038:−6.9
990:28.9
969:18.0
953:18.7
889:16.7
833:18.5
817:18.8
801:23.8
785:13.0
769:14.7
527:P/E
245:$ 24
233:$ 24
166:The
80:news
1006:8.1
937:7.3
921:8.3
905:0.6
869:8.6
753:1.4
370:= (
270:N/A
265:$ 8
237:$ 3
202:P/E
180:PER
176:P/E
63:by
1771::
1511:.
1507:.
1355:.
1351:.
1326:.
1322:.
1303:^
1123:).
1095:.
1044:.
976:.
593:12
515:.
404:.
383:=
259:=
174:,
1545:e
1538:t
1531:v
1515:.
1476:.
1455:.
1441:.
1408:.
1391:.
1377:.
1363:.
1336:.
1133:.
1074:—
1058:—
737:—
721:—
705:—
689:—
673:—
657:—
641:—
625:—
609:—
577:—
393:/
355:/
335:/
268:"
261:8
249:/
206:=
130:)
124:(
119:)
115:(
105:·
98:·
91:·
84:·
57:.
34:.
20:)
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