219:
440:
statements. This is like a level of confidence, except that Neyman–Pearson theory is prohibited from retrospective calculation and post-observational acceptance, while Kyburg's epistemological interpretation of probability licenses both. At a level of acceptance, any statement that is more probable
465:
if those senses have often been fooled in the past. Similarly, if a measurement device reports within an interval of error at a rate of .95, then no measurable statements are acceptable at a level above .95, unless the interval of error is widened. Meanwhile, at lower levels of acceptance, so many
487:
provides additional inferences at all acceptance levels. In some cases, the addition of an axiom produces predictions that are not refuted by experience. These are the adoptable theoretical postulates (and they must still be ordered by some kind of simplicity). In other cases, the theoretical
333:
There is no disagreement over the probability once there is agreement on the relevant knowledge; this is an objectivism relativized to an evidential state (i.e., relativized to a set of observed frequencies of properties in a class, and a set of asserted properties of
460:
categorically, at any level of acceptance lower than .9 (assuming also that the calculation was performed at an acceptance level above .9). The interesting tension is that very high levels of acceptance contain few evidentiary statements. They do not even include
313:
All probability inferences are based on knowledge of frequencies and properties, not ignorance of frequencies; however, randomness is essentially the lack of knowledge of bias (Kyburg especially rejects the maximum entropist methods of
294:
All probability statements can be traced to direct inference of frequency in a reference class (there can be Bayes-rule calculations upon direct-inference conclusions, but there is nothing like a prior distribution in Kyburg's
291:, but Kyburg firmly rejects their rule of combination; his work remained closer to confidence intervals, and was often interpreted by Bayesians as a commitment to a set of distributions, which Kyburg did not repudiate)
596:
97:), and neutral with respect to Bayesian confirmational conditionalization. On the latter subject, Kyburg had extended discussion in the literature with lifelong friend and colleague
298:
The reference class is the most specific class with suitable frequency knowledge (this is the
Reichenbach rule, which Kyburg made precise; his framework was later reinterpreted as a
488:
postulate is in conflict with the evidence and measurement-based observations, so the postulate must be rejected. In this way, Kyburg provides a probability-mediated model of
201:, Bulent Murtezaoglu, and Choh Man Teng, and postdoctoral visitor Fahiem Bacchus. His philosophy students included daughter Alice Kyburg, Mariam Thalos,
140:
496:, and linguistic variation. The theory of acceptance mediates the tension between linguistic categorical assertion and probability-based epistemology.
441:
than the level of acceptance can be adopted as if it were a certainty. This can create logical inconsistency, which Kyburg illustrated in his famous
144:
556:
27:
571:
576:
581:
513:
586:
69:(in turn, a work closely related to his doctoral thesis). Kyburg describes his theory as Keynesian and Fisherian (see
262:
244:
591:
229:
288:
22:(1928–2007) was Gideon Burbank Professor of Moral Philosophy and Professor of Computer Science at the
323:
330:
who believes that chance must be positively asserted upon knowledge of relevant physical symmetries)
128:'s concerns that empirical data could not confirm a universally quantified scientific axiom (e.g.,
94:
85:
for a logical probability based on reference classes, a reaction to Neyman–Pearson statistics (see
466:
contradictory statements are acceptable that nothing useful can be derived without inconsistency.
240:
23:
186:
Several full professors of philosophy today were once undergraduates of Henry Kyburg, including
61:, Kyburg is often misunderstood to be a Bayesian. His own theory of probability is outlined in
43:
31:
236:
205:, William Harper, Abhaya Nayak, Prashanta Bandyopadhaya, in addition to those listed above.
566:
561:
299:
58:
35:
8:
307:
306:, but Kyburg never intended the calculation of objective probabilities to be shortcut by
148:
70:
475:
160:
489:
191:
125:
82:
39:
541:
442:
315:
303:
202:
167:
156:
143:(1982), Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Science (1995), Fellow of the
50:
517:
424:
Kyburg's rules apply to conflict and subsumption in complicated partial orders.
187:
171:
550:
469:
Kyburg's treatment of universally quantified sentences is to add them to the
78:
74:
394:(but often a different conclusion will be warranted). Adding the knowledge
287:
Probability is measured by an interval (some mistake this as an affinity to
175:
152:
90:
86:
597:
Fellows of the
Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence
319:
198:
121:
147:(2002), and recipient of the Butler Medal for Philosophy in Silver from
327:
98:
57:(1964) with Howard Smokler. Because of this collection's relation to
391:, or some interval combining the .4 and .9, which sometimes is just
247:. Statements consisting only of original research should be removed.
427:
514:"Henry e. Kyburg - John Simon Guggenheim Memorial Foundation"
49:
Kyburg worked in probability and logic, and is known for his
194:, Rich Thomason, Teddy Seidenfeld, and William L. Harper.
65:(1974), a theory that first found form in his 1961 book
30:, Pensacola, Florida. His first faculty posts were at
141:
112:(1984), a response to Krantz–Luce–Suppes–Tversky's
414:With this universal statement of class inclusion,
548:
432:Kyburg's inferences are always relativized to a
145:American Association for Artificial Intelligence
155:as his advisor. Kyburg was also a graduate of
428:Acceptance and principles of rational belief
67:Probability and the Logic of Rational Belief
63:Logical Foundations of Statistical Inference
26:, New York, and Pace Eminent Scholar at the
448:In the example above, the calculation that
479:of the language. There, a statement like
181:
174:cattle with his wife, Sarah, and promoted
346:Contained in this corpus are statements,
263:Learn how and when to remove this message
28:Institute for Human and Machine Cognition
208:
178:systems for energy-independent farmers.
549:
404:most specific relevant reference class
326:here; and Kyburg disagrees here with
212:
492:, scientific theory-formation, the
275:Several ideas distinguish Kyburg's
104:Kyburg's later major works include
13:
557:20th-century American philosophers
310:due to computational imperfection)
197:His AI dissertation students were
14:
608:
535:
151:, where he received his PhD with
77:), a delivery on the promises of
55:Studies in Subjective Probability
452:with probability .9 permits the
217:
108:(1983), a collection of essays;
572:University of Rochester faculty
283:interpretation of probability:
577:Wayne State University faculty
506:
463:raw observations of the senses
412:interfering reference classes.
386:conflicting reference classes,
1:
499:
388:so the probability is either
120:(1990), which seeks to allay
582:University of Denver faculty
53:(1961). Kyburg also edited
7:
243:the claims made and adding
10:
613:
587:Columbia University alumni
114:Foundations of Measurement
106:Epistemology and Inference
436:that defines a corpus of
379:probability that e is a P
324:Principle of Indifference
139:Kyburg was Fellow of the
485:preference is transitive
419:direct inference from T1
417:the probability is , by
372:frequency of P among T2
363:frequency of P among T1
182:Philosophical relatives
166:Kyburg owned a farm in
24:University of Rochester
592:Yale University alumni
322:and other uses of the
289:Dempster–Shafer theory
110:Theory and Measurement
44:Wayne State University
209:Theory of probability
32:Rockefeller Institute
384:Here, there are two
344:level of acceptance.
338:Example: Suppose a
300:defeasible reasoning
95:Neyman–Pearson lemma
59:Bayesian probability
36:University of Denver
16:American philosopher
434:level of acceptance
340:corpus of Knowledge
308:bounded rationality
149:Columbia University
71:John Maynard Keynes
20:Henry E. Kyburg Jr.
476:meaning postulates
228:possibly contains
118:Science and Reason
542:Official Obituary
456:of the statement
402:now makes T1 the
398:All T1's are T2's
273:
272:
265:
230:original research
161:Guggenheim Fellow
604:
529:
528:
526:
525:
516:. Archived from
510:
490:predictive power
268:
261:
257:
254:
248:
245:inline citations
221:
220:
213:
192:Robert Stalnaker
170:where he raised
126:Bruno de Finetti
83:Hans Reichenbach
40:Wesleyan College
612:
611:
607:
606:
605:
603:
602:
601:
547:
546:
538:
533:
532:
523:
521:
512:
511:
507:
502:
443:lottery paradox
438:morally certain
430:
422:
400:
375:
366:
357:
316:Harold Jeffreys
304:John L. Pollock
281:epistemological
269:
258:
252:
249:
234:
222:
218:
211:
203:Gregory Wheeler
184:
168:Lyons, New York
157:Yale University
51:Lottery Paradox
17:
12:
11:
5:
610:
600:
599:
594:
589:
584:
579:
574:
569:
564:
559:
545:
544:
537:
536:External links
534:
531:
530:
504:
503:
501:
498:
429:
426:
416:
396:
370:
361:
348:
336:
335:
331:
311:
296:
292:
271:
270:
225:
223:
216:
210:
207:
188:Daniel Dennett
183:
180:
15:
9:
6:
4:
3:
2:
609:
598:
595:
593:
590:
588:
585:
583:
580:
578:
575:
573:
570:
568:
565:
563:
560:
558:
555:
554:
552:
543:
540:
539:
520:on 2011-06-04
519:
515:
509:
505:
497:
495:
494:Web of Belief
491:
486:
482:
478:
477:
472:
467:
464:
459:
455:
451:
446:
444:
439:
435:
425:
420:
415:
413:
409:
405:
399:
395:
393:
390:
387:
382:
380:
373:
369:
368:The observed
364:
360:
359:The observed
355:
351:
347:
345:
341:
332:
329:
325:
321:
317:
312:
309:
305:
301:
297:
293:
290:
286:
285:
284:
282:
278:
267:
264:
256:
246:
242:
238:
232:
231:
226:This section
224:
215:
214:
206:
204:
200:
195:
193:
189:
179:
177:
173:
169:
164:
162:
158:
154:
150:
146:
142:
137:
135:
131:
127:
123:
119:
115:
111:
107:
102:
100:
96:
92:
88:
84:
80:
79:Rudolf Carnap
76:
75:Ronald Fisher
72:
68:
64:
60:
56:
52:
47:
45:
41:
37:
33:
29:
25:
21:
522:. Retrieved
518:the original
508:
493:
484:
480:
474:
470:
468:
462:
457:
453:
449:
447:
437:
433:
431:
423:
418:
411:
407:
403:
401:
397:
392:
389:
385:
383:
378:
377:What is the
376:
371:
367:
362:
358:
353:
349:
343:
339:
337:
280:
276:
274:
259:
253:January 2014
250:
227:
196:
185:
176:wind turbine
165:
153:Ernest Nagel
138:
133:
129:
117:
113:
109:
105:
103:
91:Karl Pearson
87:Jerzy Neyman
66:
62:
54:
48:
19:
18:
567:2007 deaths
562:1928 births
320:E.T. Jaynes
199:Ronald Loui
159:and a 1980
122:Karl Popper
551:Categories
524:2009-08-15
500:References
454:acceptance
328:Isaac Levi
302:system by
237:improve it
99:Isaac Levi
471:Ur-corpus
408:dominator
354:e is a T2
350:e is a T1
277:Kyburgian
241:verifying
458:e is a P
450:e is a P
410:of all
374:is .4.
365:is .9.
334:events)
295:theory)
235:Please
124:'s and
481:F = ma
406:and a
116:; and
93:, and
42:, and
342:at a
172:Angus
352:and
81:and
73:and
483:or
473:or
279:or
239:by
136:).
553::
445:.
421:.
381:?
356:.
318:,
190:,
163:.
134:ma
132:=
101:.
89:,
46:.
38:,
34:,
527:.
266:)
260:(
255:)
251:(
233:.
130:F
Text is available under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License. Additional terms may apply.