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146:(GFN) makes the assumption that the whole biocapacity of the Earth is entirely at the disposal of humanity. However it is evident that we need biodiversity in order to survive, therefore unless we reserve some of the global biocapacity for other species we cannot survive. Several organisations argue that to reinstate biodiversity to levels comparable to those preceding the high extinction rates associated with the ongoing
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developments is still maintaining a continuously increasing trend. On the other hand, many low-income countries tried increasing their per capita wealth through economic activities to improve their social shortfalls. However, their social development is slower than the resulting increase in ecological overshoot. In this case, the ecological environment will be more overwhelmed.
20:
86:. The red section of the graph indicates that the global population have been accruing a global ecological overshoot since 1970. This means that the rate at which we are using natural resources exceeds the time required by the ecosystems to regenerate the resources and absorb the waste products that are involved.
57:
Ecological data collected so far reveals that the global community has been exceeding the regenerative capacity of the Earth since 1970, which was the year when the consumption capacity of humanity first exceeded the biocapacity the Earth. Each year since 1970 humanity has witnessed global ecological
121:
The outcomes from various possible human behaviour scenarios have been explored in a demographic model developed by Prof Chris
Bystroff. According to the Bystroff predictions, continuing with the growth economic paradigm will result in a rapid decrease in population numbers halving global population
89:
The continued over-exploitation of natural resources results in ever more severe damage to global ecosystems over time, this has destabilised many micro ecosystems causing increasing extinction rates and the macro ecosystems are coming under increasing pressure. In this way humans are currently
182:
is measured by calculating the amount of biologically productive land and sea area available to provide the resources a population consumes and to absorb its wastes, given the prevailing technology and management practices. Countries differ in the productivity of their ecosystems, and this is
42:
To determine whether ecological overshoot is happening requires the collection of global and nation-specific data regarding the availability of natural resources, the capability of the ecosystems to renew any natural resources that were consumed, and the rate at which the resources are being
138:
also concludes that humans need to rethink their pursuit of economic growth or anticipate collapse by 2040. For countries that have already achieved social affluence, although their social performance and resource utilization levels are high, the ecological overshoot brought about by these
217:
The pursuit of growth economics relies on continual increase in our numbers and our consumption. Several economists have been challenging the wisdom of this prevailing discipline for many years. Those suggesting a new economic paradigm can be considered collectively as advocates for
130:. This research states that to reduce ecological overshoot it is necessary to reduce economic consumption drastically to stop growing the economy and to repay the accrued ecological debt by restoration and rewilding back to the one planet level or less. A recent review of the
842:
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A crisis of human behaviour (the Human
Behavioural Crisis) has been highlighted as the driver of anthropogenic ecological overshoot in a peer-reviewed World Scientists' Warning paper led by Joseph J. Merz and co-authored by
70:, an illustrative calendar date obtained through calculation, on which day humanity's resource consumption for the year is considered to have exceeded the Earth’s capacity to regenerate those resources for that year.
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Merz, Joseph J; Barnard, Phoebe; Rees, William E; Smith, Dane; Maroni, Mat; Rhodes, Christopher J; Dederer, Julia H; Bajaj, Nandita; Joy, Michael K; Wiedmann, Thomas; Sutherland, Rory (July 2023).
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Bradshaw, Corey J. A.; Ehrlich, Paul R.; Beattie, Andrew; Ceballos, Gerardo; Crist, Eileen; Diamond, Joan; Dirzo, Rodolfo; Ehrlich, Anne H.; Harte, John; Harte, Mary Ellen; Pyke, Graham (2021).
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event, at least 50% of the Earths biocapacity would need to be protected as nature reserve areas which are kept free from human intervention. This suggestion was presented in the book titled
178:. Pandemics of zoonotic diseases, like COVID-19 also become increasingly likely with overpopulation and global travel because we encroach on wildlife habitats and accelerate the spread.
34:
exceed its regenerative capacity. Global ecological overshoot occurs when the demands made by humanity exceed what the biosphere of Earth can provide through its capacity for renewal.
594:
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parameters: population size, affluence and use of technology. These behaviour patterns are causing escalating environmental damage and there is evidence for growing risk of
203:. Today, most countries, and the world as a whole, are in ecological overshoot. Over 85% of the world population lives in countries operating with an ecological overshoot.
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Venugopal, Pingali; Kour, Harwinder (2021). "Integrating the circular economy into engineering programs in India: A study of students' familiarity with the concept".
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154:. Global Footprint Network data shows that for over 50 years humanity has been stressing the ecosystems on the planet beyond their ability to recover.
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attempts to quantify the environmental impact ("I") of the human population ("P"), their affluence ("A") and technology ("T"). Furthermore the
295:
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has been used to create the graph below, it shows that since the 1970s the global population is increasingly compromising the Earth's
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McBain, Bonnie; Lenzen, Manfred; Wackernagel, Mathis; Albrecht, Glenn (2017). "How long can global ecological overshoot last?".
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456:"Footprints to singularity: A global population model explains late 20th century slow-down and predicts peak within ten years"
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Ecological overshoot expressed in terms of how many Earths equivalent of natural resources are consumed by humanity each year.
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is smaller than its biocapacity; otherwise it is operating with an ecological overshoot. The former are often referred to as
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This data collection, and analysis is typically done by scientific and conservation organisations, such as the
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warns us that increasing our efficiency using technology will usually result in increased ecological damage.
356:
319:
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Herrington, G. (2021). "Update to limits to growth: Comparing the world3 model with empirical data".
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The majority of the world currently follow an economic paradigm that seeks to grow all three of the
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This ecological debt is often referred to as our global 'ecological overshoot'. The data from the
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240: – Calculated calendar date when humanity's yearly consumption exceeds Earth's replenishment
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523:"Through the Eye of a Needle: An Eco-Heterodox Perspective on the Renewable Energy Transition"
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666:"World scientists' warning: The behavioural crisis driving ecological overshoot"
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Fanning, Andrew L.; O’Neill, Daniel W.; Hickel, Jason; Roux, Nicolas (2022).
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by 2040. The
Bystroff predictions are echoed in further research by Dr
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reflected in the
National Footprint and Biocapacity Accounts kept by
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31:
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The
European Journal of Contraception & Reproductive Health Care
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is the phenomenon which occurs when the demands made on a natural
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of Earth as we increase the ecological overshoot each year. The
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It is important to bear in mind that the data collected by the
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415:"Underestimating the Challenges of Avoiding a Ghastly Future"
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https://advisory.kpmg.us/articles/2021/limits-to-growth.html
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The most well known symptom of ecological overshoot is the
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595:"The social shortfall and ecological overshoot of nations"
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246: – Individual's or a group's human demand on nature
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Pages displaying short descriptions of redirect targets
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Overshoot: The
Ecological Basis of Evolutionary Change
825:. readersupportednews.org (Original: The Herald Sun).
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Ecological
Footprint: Managing Our Biocapacity Budget
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How Earth's
Population Exploded -Bloomberg Quicktake
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Seibert, Megan K.; Rees, William E. (January 2021).
43:consumed, usually assessed for each calendar year.
819:"Too Much Food, Too Many People on a Finite Planet"
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294:. Earth Overshoot Day. Global Footprint Network.
258: – Industrial process for ammonia production
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191:. A country has an ecological reserve if its
54:of each country and the global community.
831:"The Root Cause of Human Population Growth"
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207:Solving the problem of Ecological Overshoot
16:Demands on ecosystem exceeding regeneration
776:Wackernagel, Mathis; Beyers, Bert (2019).
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126:, who originally developed the concept of
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292:"Media Backgrounder: Earth Overshoot Day"
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66:This problem is highlighted each year on
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38:Record of global ecological overshoot
454:Bystroff, Christopher (2021-05-20).
50:, which collects data to assess the
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298:from the original on 25 August 2021
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641:. Global Footprint Network. 2021.
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481:10.1371/journal.pone.0247214
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723:"Pandemics and populations"
320:Global and Planetary Change
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782:. New Society Publishers.
721:Greguš, Jan (2021-03-04).
614:10.1038/s41893-021-00799-z
359:. Global Footprint Network
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682:10.1177/00368504231201372
432:10.3389/fcosc.2020.615419
213:Human population planning
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392:10.1177/0950422220967542
189:Global Footprint Network
144:Global Footprint Network
80:Global Footprint Network
48:Global Footprint Network
639:"Data and Methodology"
265:Overshoot (population)
176:rising extinction rate
74:Global ecological debt
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848:William R. Catton Jr.
602:Nature Sustainability
562:(3). Wiley: 614–626.
211:Further information:
134:demographic model by
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386:(3). Sage: 264–269.
271:Planetary boundaries
244:Ecological footprint
199:, and the latter as
197:ecological creditors
193:Ecological footprint
128:Ecological Footprint
52:ecological footprint
28:Ecological overshoot
835:Steven Earl Salmony
823:Steven Earl Salmony
808:The Population Bomb
472:2021PLoSO..1647214B
256:Haber Bosch process
238:Earth Overshoot Day
148:Holocene extinction
116:ecological collapse
68:Earth Overshoot Day
62:Earth Overshoot Day
881:EarthOvershoot.org
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250:Biocapacity
180:Biocapacity
58:overshoot.
896:Ecosystems
890:Categories
278:References
152:Half Earth
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747:1362-5187
690:0036-8504
622:244349360
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490:1932-6203
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400:226342170
363:28 August
327:: 13–19.
302:28 August
84:ecosystem
32:ecosystem
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708:37728669
699:10515534
643:Archived
527:Energies
508:34014929
460:PLOS ONE
296:Archived
226:See also
220:degrowth
901:Ecology
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468:Bibcode
170:Effects
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651:2021
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112:IPAT
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