91:
predictions by amateurs on account of their lack of scientific rigor, proponents claim that successful predictions can indicate a significant breakthrough, even if the details are not understood. In this regard
Berkland claims "a 75 percent accuracy rate of forecasting quakes." However, these results (besides being disputed) are irrelevant in demonstrating any kind of "earthquake sensitive" effect as Berkland's predictions appear to not involve such effects.
464:, p. 29) described Berkland's method as the"Three Double G" system: 1) "the gravity gradient, or the forces exacted on the earth by the gravitational pull of the Sun and the Moon." 2) "Gone Gatos" – missing cats, as indicated by advertisements in several newspapers. 3) "Geyser Gaps", seen as irregularities in the behavior of a geyser in the Napa Valley.
212:
Animals, like humans, do react to foreshocks. However, foreshocks are not reliable earthquake precursors: in some cases they are followed by a larger earthquake, but in many cases they are not, and as yet no way has been found to determine whether any cluster or swarm of small earthquakes will lead
90:
On their side, the proponents claim that there have been "many scientific papers" supporting their views, but "most have been totally rejected by the keepers of high wisdom." While scientists are quick to dismiss theories they "know, or have good reason to believe, are not credible", and especially
65:
that the claimed effects might work through known physical phenomena, and thus be amenable to scientific study, these claims are pseudoscientific in that no evidence of such effects, nor any theory of how such effects might be perceived, has been presented in the scientific literature. What the
202:
Animals have been observed reacting to the P-waves that may arrive some tens of seconds before the more severe, but slower, S-waves. However, the P-waves do not precede the earthquake, but only the arrival of the S-waves at locations distant from an earthquake that has already
94:
Berkland ceased posting his predictions after June 2010. Though a few others have continued to post their predictions on
Berkland's website, there appears to be no effort to correlate "ear tones" or any other physiological effect with subsequent earthquakes.
237:, p. 425) had previously noted that "xtensive searches have failed to find reliable precursors." A assessment in 2011 again noted that, despite a century of study, "he search for diagnostic precursors has thus far been unsuccessful" (
85:
there is no credible scientific evidence that animals display behaviors indicative of earthquake-related environmental disturbances that are unobservable by the physical and chemical sensor systems available to earthquake
318:, a seismologist at the U.S. Geological Survey, notes "variations on a drumbeat theme that we are hegemonical, close-minded, unwilling to acknowledge or accept breakthroughs that come from outside the ranks." (
45:
to refer to certain people who claim sensitivity to the precursors of impending earthquakes, manifested in "dreams or visions, psychic impressions, or physiological symptoms", the latter including "ear tones"
50:), headaches, and agitation. It is claimed that " person with a very sensitive body may also have some subtle reaction to whatever animals react to". Proponents have speculated that these may result from: 1)
370:
predictions to avoid "cherry picking" of just the successful cases. To be deemed successful prediction methods must be statistically significant. That is, successful beyond random chance (
77:
Could "earthquake sensitives" be responding to some kind of "psychic impressions" or other paranormal phenomena as yet unknown to science? After reviewing the scientific literature the
302:, p. 336) reviewed a number of such papers. Such papers are generally collections of anecdotal reports that lack scientific validity. Geller describes them as "doubly dubious".
892:
Otis, Leon; Kautz, William (1979), "Biological premonitions of earthquakes: a validation study - Proceedings of
Conference XI: Abnormal Animal Behavior Prior to Earthquakes, II",
682:
International
Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (30 May 2011), "Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization",
484:
74:(by any means), the "consistent failure to find reliable earthquake precursors" has led many scientists to question whether such precursor phenomena even exist.
395:
Berkland has said: "The only real test of the efficiency of a predictive method is: How close do future events correspond to the earlier extrapolations?" (
765:"Can animals predict earthquakes? A search for correlations between changes in activity patterns of two fossorial rodents and subsequent seismic events"
192:). A claim that advertisements for missing pets increase prior to an earthquake (also touted by Berkland as a means for predicting earthquakes [
374:, p. 32). Amateurs seldom understand the need for such rigor, and even scientists are occasionally criticized for being vague and ambiguous (
366:, p. 425). Any evaluation of a prediction method must specify its failure rate as well as its success rate, with complete documentation of
70:
show disturbed or altered behavior attributable to earthquake precursors (other than foreshocks). Aside from whether such phenomena can be
452:
In 1990 Berkland described his method as the "Seismic Window Theory" (based on tidal stresses when the sun and moon are aligned, known as
582:
840:
Mulargia, Francesco; Gasperini, Paolo (1992), "Evaluating the statistical validity beyond chance of 'VAN' earthquake precursors",
492:
419:
earthquake hazard, of the frequency and magnitude of earthquakes in a given area, generally over periods of years or decades.
648:
17:
54:
due to changes in the stress of the Earth's crust, 2) low-frequency electromagnetic signals, or 3) from the emission of
715:
Kenagy, G. J.; Enright, J. T. (1979), "Animal
Behavior as a Predictor of Earthquakes: An Analysis of Rodent Activity",
172:
In several studies direct observation of animals showed no signs of anomalous animal behavior preceding an earthquake (
659:
932:
882:
266:
A panel of internationally recognized earthquake experts convened at the request of the
Italian government after the
427:
earthquake expected in a given area. In this instance it appears that "forecast" is being used in the sense of
362:
of a future earthquake with sufficient specificity that measures can be taken that will mitigate serious harm (
903:
706:
874:
The Man Who
Predicts Earthquakes: Jim Berkland, Maverick Geologist: How His Quake Warnings Can Save Lives
811:
McClellan, Patrick H. (May 1980), "Preearthquake Animal
Behavior, A Closer Look for Alternative Causes",
267:
468:
found "a hodge-podge of factors", but apparently none of these involve human sensitivities of any kind.
1000:
925:
Why People
Believe Weird Things: Pseudoscience, Superstition, and Other Confusions of Our Time
780:
Matthews, Robert A. J. (December 1997), "Decision-theoretic limits on earthquake prediction",
383:
104:
955:
849:
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789:
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581:
Geller, Robert J.; Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y.; Mulargia, Francesco (14 March 1997),
8:
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California Commission of Earthquake Preparedness and Natural Hazards
872:
764:
550:
Geller, Robert J. (December 1997), "Earthquake prediction: a critical review.",
502:
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639:
Predicting the Unpredictable: The Tumultuous Science of Earthquake Prediction
38:
832:
526:
755:
667:
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66:
scientific literature does have is various reports showing that animals do
42:
423:
is distinguished as a definite statement of the time and magnitude of the
987:
Jim Berkland's earthquake prediction website. (Inactive since June 2010.)
632:
315:
904:"An evaluation of the animal-behavior theory for earthquake predictions"
378:, p. 436), or failing to consider alternative explanations (e.g.,
347:
79:
International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection
746:
443:
analyzed Berkland's predictions, and found them no better than chance.
727:"Shaken, not stirred: a serendipitous study of ants and earthquakes"
696:
411:, p. 45. This statement is problematical. For seismologists
503:"Recognizing Foreshocks from the 1 April 2014 Chile Earthquake"
184:). A study of anomalous animal behavior reported to a hotline
55:
984:
763:
Lindberg, Robert G.; Skiles, Durward; Hayden, Page (1981),
666:, vol. 30, no. 5, pp. 47–50, archived from
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250:
725:
Lighton, John R.B.; Duncan, Frances D. (15 August 2005),
946:(2008), "Testing alarm-based earthquake predictions",
762:
181:
27:
Alleged natural human ability to predict earthquakes
636:
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707:20.500.11820/6552f865-6e59-47f1-a5ec-b7446bfd1a82
371:
992:
188:to an earthquake found no significant increase (
501:Brodsky, Emily E.; Lay, Thorne (16 May 2014),
724:
714:
177:
173:
941:
230:
896:, U.S. Geological Survey, pp. 225–226
500:
415:usually means a probabilistic estimate of
350:an earthquake prediction must specify the
218:
967:
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861:
810:
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745:
705:
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379:
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660:"Can Jim Berkland predict earthquakes?"
160:
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196:, p. 263]) was disproven by
870:
681:
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311:
299:
291:
279:
238:
214:
193:
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213:to an imminent, larger earthquake (
24:
863:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1992.tb00552.x
803:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06596.x
573:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06588.x
182:Lindberg, Skiles & Hayden 1981
25:
1012:
978:
948:Geophysical Journal International
902:Schaal, Rand B. (February 1988),
842:Geophysical Journal International
782:Geophysical Journal International
583:"Earthquakes Cannot Be Predicted"
552:Geophysical Journal International
969:10.1111/j.1365-246X.2007.03676.x
658:Hunter, Roger (September 2006),
61:Although proponents suggest the
734:Journal of Experimental Biology
446:
434:
402:
389:
337:
325:
305:
285:
273:
643:, Princeton University Press,
260:
244:
224:
206:
166:
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135:Reneau Z. Peurifoy, quoted in
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117:
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1:
602:10.1126/science.275.5306.1616
372:Mulargia & Gasperini 1992
927:, W.H. Freeman and Company,
813:Geophysical Research Letters
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10:
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475:
923:Shermer, Michael (1997),
877:, Sentient Publications,
178:Kenagy & Enright 1979
174:Lighton & Duncan 2005
985:http://www.syzygyjob.com
774:, U.S. Geological Survey
719:, U.S. Geological Survey
268:2009 L'Aquila earthquake
231:Zechar & Jordan 2008
110:
894:Open-File Report 80-453
833:10.1029/gl007i005p00333
772:Open-File Report 81-385
717:Open-File Report 80-453
527:10.1126/science.1255202
298:, p. 432) and the
219:Brodsky & Lay 2014
88:
81:(ICEF) concluded that
31:Earthquake sensitivity
485:"Bring in the Clowns"
386:for more information.
384:Earthquake prediction
190:Otis & Kautz 1979
105:Earthquake prediction
83:
52:piezoelectric effects
942:Zechar, J. Douglas;
684:Annals of Geophysics
35:earthquake sensitive
18:Earthquake sensitive
960:2008GeoJI.172..715Z
854:1992GeoJI.111...32M
825:1980GeoRL...7..333M
794:1997GeoJI.131..526M
564:1997GeoJI.131..425G
519:2014Sci...344..700B
48:ringing in the ears
911:California Geology
871:Orey, Cal (2006),
664:Skeptical Inquirer
346:, p. 165. In
251:Geller et al. 1997
944:Jordan, Thomas H.
747:10.1242/jeb.01735
740:(16): 3103–3107,
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86:scientists.
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462:Orey (2006
429:prediction
421:Prediction
348:seismology
344:Hough 2010
332:Hough 2010
320:Hough 2010
300:ICEF (2011
610:123516228
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360:magnitude
312:Orey 2006
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280:ICEF 2011
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