49:
140:, when the Moon is closest to the Earth. He said there are three main processes: (1) the solid Earth tide that deforms the Earth's crust (up to three feet), (2) oceanic tides, and (3) ground water pore-pressure. Since 1979 he has also subscribed to a theory that "pets often react prior to earthquakes by running away", which he measures by monitoring the lost-and-found ads in several newspapers. He claims that ads for missing animals "increase dramatically by up to 300-400 per cent" prior to earthquakes.
45:. The book includes a chapter that notes "Many of Berkland's theories--based on tides, moons, disoriented pets, lost cats and dogs, and magnetic field changes--were factors in the great Indian Ocean quake-tsunami disaster on December 26, 2004." but neither his methods nor his predictions have been published in any scientific journals for peer review. His results have been disputed by peers, with other scientists going so far as calling him a crank and a clown.
118:
288:'s pronouncement that "every earthquake takes place within 3 months of an equinox.") The arbitrary inclusion of other undocumented factors makes the results nearly impossible to evaluate. One analysis that tried to evaluate his results in a consistent manner found no statistical significance, and concluded that "Berkland is not actually predicting earthquakes."
164:. The greatest tides happen when syzygy and perigee are less than 25 hours apart (from two to five times a year). On that basis he then predicts one or more earthquakes of a specified magnitude within each of three regions on the U.S. West Coast, and one or more earthquakes globally. The West Coast regions are:
248:
forces have brought rock to the brink of failure earthquakes can be triggered by the tidal forces induced by the Sun and Moon, especially when they are greatest (that is, at the points of orbital syzygy, corresponding with the new Moon and full Moon). While this seems plausible, attempts to identify
283:
Berkland has said that the only real test of a predictive method is how well it performs, and in this regard he claims a "75 percent accuracy rate". However, Berkland's "windows" are so large that they should net about three-quarters of all earthquakes even if they occurred randomly, without regard
135:
Berkland has been predicting earthquakes since the 1970s, but his method has not been described in the scientific literature (he claims because of censorship and a conspiracy of prejudicial reviewers), nor in any detail in any media. In 1990 he described the "Seismic Window Theory" as "correlating
143:
In 2006 Berkland's method was described as the "Three Double G" system: 1) "the gravity gradient, or the forces exacted on the Earth by the gravitational pull of the Sun and the Moon." 2) "Gone Gatos" (missing cats) as indicated by advertisements in several newspapers. 3) "Geyser Gaps", seen as
102:
in March 2011, Berkland predicted a massive earthquake in
California for sometime between March 19 and March 26, 2011. He cited as factors the highest tides in 18 years and the proximity of the Moon, suggesting that the quake will most likely strike on Saturday, March 19, 2011. No such quake
216:
How
Berkland evaluated his success rate prior to 1999 is unknown. Since then he has used his "dartboard" method, where he takes credit not only for "bulls-eyes" (where an earthquake occurs within his windows of time, place, and magnitude), but also partial credit of 90, 80, or 70 percent for
253:
of earthquakes during
Berkland's "seismic windows". Although that deficiency was considered statistically insignificant, the overall conclusion was that "the seismic window theory fails as a reliable method of earthquake prediction." A subsequent study in 2004 found slightly more M > 7.0
249:
any such effect generally have been equivocal, possibly because various factors might not have been properly accounted for. An evaluation specifically of earthquakes in the San
Francisco Bay area (done by the USGS in 1980 at Berkland's request) showed a slight
94:
occurred on
October 17, just four days later. Berkland claims that government officials told him not to make any more predictions, fearing mass panic, and he was suspended for two months from his Santa Clara County geology position in late October, 1989.
73:
degree in 1958. Thereafter he worked for the United States
Geological Survey while pursuing graduate study. In 1964, he took a position at the United States Bureau of Reclamation. After further graduate study, he taught for a year at
151:
each month where the Sun, Moon, and Earth are aligned (corresponding to the new Moon and full Moon). He then sets a "seismic window" eight days long, beginning from one to three days before each syzygy. The one nearest
86:
Berkland's predictions have been either self-published in his newsletter or website, or announced in various interviews or speaking engagements. His notoriety arose from an interview published in the
90:
on
October 13, 1989, where he predicted that an earthquake with a magnitude between 3.5 and 6.0 would occur in the San Francisco Bay Area between October 14 and October 21. The 6.9-magnitude
311:
successfully predicted), or its inversion, the number of earthquakes missed. These cannot be determined without knowing about all of the predictions made, which
Berkland does not document.
37:
who controversially claimed to be able to predict earthquakes, including the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake and 1994 Northridge
Earthquake and who popularized the idea that some people are
106:
He has also claimed to have predicted the 1980 M 7.2 Eureka earthquake just fourteen hours before it hit, but the tape-recording documenting this "had somehow been lost in the mail".
254:
earthquakes than expected in seismic windows in a ten-year period, but this evened out in longer periods, and overall syzygy considerations were found to have no predictive value.
988:
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to syzygy. E.g., in a 28-day lunar cycle he has two windows of eight days each, plus six partial credit days, thus covering 22 days out of the 28. (This is reminiscent of
941:
496:
Jerry Seaton, a USGS seismologist: "We've known this guy throughout his professional life, and he's distinguished himself by being a clown the entire time." Quoted in
136:
gravitational stresses with earthquakes" - referring to the tidal stresses in the Earth resulting from the gravitational pull of the Moon, especially at lunar
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515:
1348:
545:
109:
Up to June 2010 Berkland made many predictions in his newsletter and on his website, for which he has claimed a "75 percent accuracy rate".
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irregularities in the behavior of a geyser in the Napa Valley. Berkland's method has been said to also involve "a hodge-podge of factors".
1353:
654:
599:
78:, 1972–1973, then returned to California to work as County Geologist for Santa Clara County from 1973 until he retired in 1994.
263:
947:
1147:"The Man Who Predicts Earthquakes — Jim Berkland, Maverick Geologist: How His Quake Warnings Can Save Lives by Cal Orey"
391:"The Man Who Predicts Earthquakes — Jim Berkland, Maverick Geologist: How His Quake Warnings Can Save Lives by Cal Orey"
291:
Berkland's claimed "accuracy rate" is also incomplete. The societal value of any prediction method depends not only on its
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Hartzell, Stephen; Heaton, Thomas (August 1989), "The
Fortnightly Tide and the Tidal Triggering of Earthquakes",
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1343:
1317:
724:, p. 393) reports that the details of Berkland's method have to be teased out, as in a scavenger hunt.
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1207:
The Man Who Predicts Earthquakes: Jim Berkland, Maverick Geologist: How His Quake Warnings Can Save Lives
1146:
959:
829:) have found no fortnightly tidal periodicity, either globally, or for southern California specifically.
390:
339:
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The product of these scores is the summary score, and any score of 70% or greater is counted as a hit.
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212:(7) personal intuition (his so-called "MOSS predictions", or "monthly outright seismic speculations").
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17:
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Then he then selects location and magnitude by considering a number of other factors, including:
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960:"Earthquake Prediction, Kooks, and Syzygy: A Review of The Man Who Predicts Earthquakes"
340:"Earthquake Prediction, Kooks, and Syzygy: A Review of The Man Who Predicts Earthquakes"
1047:"Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization"
1045:
International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (30 May 2011),
148:
122:
516:"Living in earthquake country: Temblor once sent chunks of shoreline into Lake Tahoe"
244:
Berkland's method of predicting earthquakes is based primarily on the idea that where
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Report to the California Commission of Earthquake Preparedness and Natural Hazards
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McClellan provides the most detailed description. Berkland starts with two lunar
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1107:"Earthquake prognosticator, Glen Ellen raconteur Jim Berkland dies at 85"
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1248:"An evaluation of the animal-behavior theory for earthquake predictions"
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1176:"An Evaluation of the Seismic-Window Theory for Earthquake Prediction"
1119:
Kennedy, Matthew; Vidale, John E.; Parker, Michael G. (October 2004),
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245:
34:
1086:
Forecast Verification: A Practitioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science
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for five weeks in 1970. Brackets indicate seismic window periods.
989:"If He Does Confirm Your Fears, Hang Up and Call Dial-a-Prayer"
887:
Similar criticisms apply to his handling of area and magnitude.
546:"Loma Prieta predictor Jim Berkland still picking quake dates"
264:
Earthquake prediction § Evaluating earthquake predictions
227:
10, 20, or 30 percent beyond his standard radius of 140 miles.
622:"USGS Geologist Jim Berkland predicts major California quake"
1121:"Earthquakes and the Moon: Syzygy predictions fail the test"
270:
Every earthquake takes place within 3 months of an equinox.
1325:
303:(the proportion of predictions that are false), and on the
1027:, vol. 30, no. 5, pp. 47–50, archived from
373:, vol. 30, no. 5, pp. 47–50, archived from
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Berkland's web site was inactive since about June 2010.
1084:
Jolliffe, Ian T.; Stephenson, David B., eds. (2003),
221:
one, two, or three days on either side of his window,
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822:
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922:
1074:20.500.11820/6552f865-6e59-47f1-a5ec-b7446bfd1a82
1335:
1005:Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America
33:(July 31, 1930 – July 22, 2016) was an American
1174:McNutt, Marcia; Heaton, Thomas (January 1981),
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1002:
897:
838:
826:
1278:"Earthquake prediction: a political problem?"
1088:(1st ed.), John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.,
1359:Fellows of the Geological Society of America
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810:
794:
694:
624:. CNN iReport. 16 March 2011. Archived from
179:(east of San Francisco; 37.9°N 121.9°W), and
41:. He was profiled in a popular 2006 book as
1238:, vol. 16, no. 4, pp. 26–27
600:"Unorthodox quake forecaster in hot water"
430:, vol. 16, no. 4, pp. 26–27
156:, that raises the highest tides, he terms
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1276:Snieder, R.; van Eck, T. (August 1997),
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1019:Hunter, Roger (September–October 2006),
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365:Hunter, Roger (September–October 2006),
193:(2) misbehaving geysers and hot springs,
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47:
1021:"Can Jim Berkland predict earthquakes?"
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367:"Can Jim Berkland predict earthquakes?"
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1210:, Boulder, CO: Sentient Publications,
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299:that are successful), but also on the
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182:(c) anywhere in Washington or Oregon.
1349:Appalachian State University faculty
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745:
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224:0.1, 0.2, or 0.3 units of magnitude,
199:(4) reports of symptoms from human "
65:Jim Berkland studied geology at the
1105:Kallen, Christian (July 29, 2016),
940:Berkland, Jim (November 29, 1990),
640:predictions on the Fox News Channel
24:
389:McClellan, Patrick (Spring 2007),
331:
67:University of California, Berkeley
25:
1380:
1354:San Jose State University faculty
1310:
1246:Schaal, Rand B. (February 1988),
1152:Journal of Scientific Exploration
965:Journal of Scientific Exploration
823:Kennedy, Vidale & Parker 2004
396:Journal of Scientific Exploration
345:Journal of Scientific Exploration
257:
239:
598:Leavitt, Carrick (25 Oct 1989).
43:The Man Who Predicts Earthquakes
1227:Prothero, Donald (April 2011),
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131:Tidal triggering of earthquakes
121:Amplitude of the ocean tide at
1125:Seismological Research Letters
987:Dolan, Carrie (June 5, 1990),
923:Jolliffe & Stephenson 2003
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196:(3) extreme seasonal rainfall,
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1:
338:Deming, David (Spring 2007),
544:Walsh, Austin (1999-10-16).
76:Appalachian State University
54:Jim Berkland Memorial Bridge
7:
1145:McClellan, Patrick (2007),
652:USGS catalog of earthquakes
514:Fehd, Amanda (2005-06-28).
314:
190:(1) unusual animal behavior
10:
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898:Snieder & van Eck 1997
839:Snieder & van Eck 1997
827:Hartzell & Heaton 1989
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209:(6) seismic quiet periods,
206:(5) magnetic fluctuations,
168:(a) within 140 miles from
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56:in Glen Ellen, California.
295:(the proportion of total
60:
811:McNutt & Heaton 1981
795:McNutt & Heaton 1981
695:McNutt & Heaton 1981
436:
175:(b) within 140 miles of
825:. Other studies (e.g.,
172:City Hall (34°N 118°W),
1137:10.1785/gssrl.75.5.607
958:Deming, David (2007),
272:
126:
92:Loma Prieta earthquake
57:
1318:"Berkland's Web site"
1294:10.1007/s005310050153
1282:Geologische Rundschau
925:, §3.2.2 for details.
268:
129:Further information:
120:
51:
1111:Sonoma Index-Tribune
1051:Annals of Geophysics
326:Lists of earthquakes
321:Earthquake sensitive
235:Scientific criticism
217:earthquakes within:
39:earthquake sensitive
1344:American geologists
1229:"Quacks and Quakes"
993:Wall Street Journal
878:, pp. 386–387.
801:, pp. 377–378.
784:, pp. 387–388.
772:, pp. 385–386.
628:on February 2, 2014
550:Santa Cruz Sentinel
520:Tahoe Daily Tribune
475:, pp. 144–160.
463:, pp. 103–104.
421:"Quacks and Quakes"
307:(proportion of all
1255:California Geology
1204:Orey, Cal (2006),
1183:California Geology
1025:Skeptical Inquirer
874:See discussion in
793:See discussion in
657:2016-06-01 at the
371:Skeptical Inquirer
201:seismic sensitives
127:
123:Golden Gate Bridge
58:
27:American geologist
301:false alarm ratio
31:James O. Berkland
16:(Redirected from
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71:Bachelor of Arts
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277:Charles Richter
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98:Interviewed on
88:Gilroy Dispatch
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638:He also gave
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72:
68:
55:
50:
46:
44:
40:
36:
32:
19:
1326:the original
1321:
1285:
1281:
1261:(2): 41–45,
1258:
1254:
1235:
1206:
1189:(1): 12–16,
1186:
1182:
1156:
1150:
1128:
1124:
1110:
1085:
1054:
1050:
1033:, retrieved
1029:the original
1024:
1008:
1004:
995:, p. B1
992:
969:
963:
948:the original
942:
917:
905:
892:
883:
870:
858:
846:
834:
818:
806:
789:
777:
765:
753:
741:
729:
717:
701:
690:
678:
666:
646:
630:. Retrieved
626:the original
616:
604:. Retrieved
593:
581:
569:
558:. Retrieved
554:the original
549:
539:
528:. Retrieved
524:the original
519:
509:
498:Dolan (1990)
492:
480:
468:
456:
444:
427:
400:
394:
379:, retrieved
375:the original
370:
349:
343:
308:
304:
300:
296:
293:success rate
292:
290:
282:
273:
269:
250:
243:
230:
215:
185:
161:
160:, the other
157:
146:
142:
134:
108:
105:
97:
85:
69:earning the
64:
42:
30:
29:
1369:2016 deaths
1364:1930 births
910:Hunter 2006
799:Deming 2007
758:Hunter 2006
586:Deming 2007
449:Kallen 2016
297:predictions
170:Los Angeles
113:Methodology
82:Predictions
1338:Categories
1035:2016-03-09
896:Quoted in
560:2011-03-19
530:2011-03-19
381:2016-03-09
262:See also:
251:deficiency
177:Mt. Diablo
103:occurred.
1302:1432-1149
1267:0026-4555
1195:0026-4555
1165:0892-3310
978:0892-3310
863:Orey 2006
746:Orey 2006
683:Orey 2006
473:Orey 2006
461:Orey 2006
409:0892-3310
358:0892-3310
162:secondary
35:geologist
655:Archived
315:See also
305:hit rate
246:tectonic
149:syzygies
100:Fox News
18:Berkland
932:Sources
158:primary
154:perigee
138:perigee
1300:
1265:
1214:
1193:
1163:
1092:
976:
632:3 July
606:31 May
407:
356:
309:events
61:Career
1251:(PDF)
1232:(PDF)
1179:(PDF)
602:. UPI
437:Notes
424:(PDF)
1298:ISSN
1263:ISSN
1212:ISBN
1191:ISSN
1161:ISSN
1149:, ,
1090:ISBN
974:ISSN
962:, ,
921:See
650:See
634:2013
608:2023
405:ISSN
393:, ,
354:ISSN
342:, ,
52:The
1290:doi
1133:doi
1069:hdl
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275:—
20:)
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