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Bayesian game

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869:. One approach is to continue to treat individual players as reasoning in isolation, but to allow them, with some probability, to reason from the perspective of a collective. Another approach is to assume that players within any collective agent know that the agent exists, but that other players do not know this, although they suspect it with some probability. For example, Alice and Bob may sometimes optimize as individuals and sometimes collude as a team, depending on the state of nature, but other players may not know which of these is the case. 269:. Bayesian games are also useful in that they do not require infinite sequential calculations. Infinite sequential calculations would arise where players (essentially) try to "get into each other's heads". For example, one may ask questions and decide "If I expect some action from player B, then player B will anticipate that I expect that action, so then I should anticipate that anticipation" 1228:
type2 appearing from whether the previous firm entering the market was blocked, it is a Bayesian game. The reason for these judgements is that there are blocking costs for player2, which may need to make significant price cuts to prevent player1 from entering the market, so it will block player1 when the profit it steals from entering the market is greater than the blocking costs.
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to these characteristics and by calculating the outcome of the game using Bayesian probability, the result is a game whose solution is, for technical reasons, far easier to calculate than a similar game in a non-Bayesian context. For those technical reasons, see the Specification of games section in
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There are two important and novel aspects to Bayesian games that were themselves specified by Harsanyi. The first is that Bayesian games should be considered and structured identically to complete information games. Except, by attaching probability to the game, the final game functions as though it
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A new company (player1) that wants to enter a market that is monopolised by a large company will encounter two types of monopolist (player2), type1 is prevented and type2 is allowed. Player1 will never have complete information about player2, but may be able to infer the probability of type1 and
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There is a used car. Player 1 is a potential buyer who is interested in the car. Player 2 is the owner of the car and knows the value v of the car (how good it is, etc.). Player 1 does not and believes that the value v of the car to the owner (Player 2) is distributed uniformly between 0 and 100
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The sheriff would rather defend himself and shoot if the suspect shoots, or not shoot if the suspect does not (even if the suspect is a criminal). The suspect would rather shoot if he is a criminal, even if the sheriff does not shoot, but would rather not shoot if he is a civilian, even if the
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An analogous concept can be defined for a Bayesian game, the difference being that every player's strategy maximizes their expected payoff given their beliefs about the state of nature. A player's beliefs about the state of nature are formed by conditioning the prior probabilities
273:. Bayesian games allows for the calculation of these outcomes in one move by simultaneously assigning different probability weights to different outcomes. The effect of this is that Bayesian games allow for the modeling of a number of games that in a non-Bayesian setting would be 853:, to represent environment states (e.g. physical world states) with stochastic transitions between states as well as uncertainty about the types of different players in each state. The resulting model is solved via a recursive combination of the Bayesian Nash equilibrium and the 857:. Stochastic Bayesian games have been used to address diverse problems, including defense and security planning, cybersecurity of power plants, autonomous driving, mobile edge computing, self-stabilization in dynamic systems, and misbehavior treating in crowdsourcing IoT. 38:
is a strategic decision-making model which assumes players have incomplete information. Players hold private information relevant to the game, meaning that the payoffs are not common knowledge. Bayesian games model the outcome of player interactions using aspects of
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for the suspect is to shoot, and when the type is "civilian", the dominant strategy for the suspect is not to shoot; alternative strictly dominated strategy can thus be removed. Given this, if the sheriff shoots, he will have a payoff of 0 with probability
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For finite Bayesian games, i.e., both the action and the type space are finite, there are two equivalent representations. The first is called the agent-form game (see Theorem 9.51 of the Game Theory book) which expands the number of players from
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If both players are rational and both know that both players are rational and everything that is known by any player is known to be known by every player (i.e. player 1 knows player 2 knows that player 1 is rational and player 2 knows this, etc.
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for these and other contributions to game theory in 1994. Roughly speaking, Harsanyi defined Bayesian games in the following way: players are assigned by nature at the start of the game a set of characteristics. By mapping
647:, i.e., the pure policy is a combination of actions the player should take for different types. Nash Equilibrium (NE) can be computed in these two equivalent representations, and the BNE can be recovered from the NE. 885:
The suspect can either be of type "criminal" or type "civilian". The sheriff has only one type. The suspect knows its type and the Sheriff's type, but the Sheriff does not know the suspect's type. Thus, there is
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Nature's node is usually denoted by an unfilled circle. Its strategy is always specified and always completely mixed. Usually, Nature is at the root of the tree, however Nature can move at other points as well.
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requires that, starting from any information set, subsequent play be optimal. It requires that beliefs be updated consistently with Bayes' rule on every path of play that occurs with positive probability.
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Harsanyi, John C., 1967/1968. "Games with Incomplete Information Played by Bayesian Players, I-III." Management Science 14 (3): 159-183 (Part I), 14 (5): 320-334 (Part II), 14 (7): 486-502 (Part III).
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Bayesian Nash equilibrium can result in implausible equilibria in dynamic games, where players move sequentially rather than simultaneously. As in games of complete information, these can arise via
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is defined as a strategy profile that maximizes the expected payoff for each player given their beliefs and given the strategies played by the other players. That is, a strategy profile
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to every other strategy in the profile; i.e., there is no strategy that a player could play that would yield a higher payoff, given all the strategies played by the other players.
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were an incomplete information game. Therefore, players can be essentially modelled as having incomplete information and the probability space of the game still follows the
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Players know their own type, but only a probability distribution of other players. A player studies the expected value of the other player's type when considering payoffs.
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that the suspect is a civilian; both players are aware of this probability (common prior assumption, which can be converted into a complete-information game with
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Players do not know their own types or those of other players. A player recognises payoffs as expected values based on a prior distribution of all possible types.
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Harsanyi, John C. (1968). "Games with Incomplete Information Played by "Bayesian" Players, I-III. Part III. The Basic Probability Distribution of the Game".
519:, i.e., every type of each player becomes a player. The second is called the induced normal form (see Section 6.3.3 of Multiagent Systems) which still has 818:
in an extensive form game is a combination of strategies and a specification of beliefs such that the following two conditions are satisfied:
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strategies off the equilibrium path. In games of incomplete information there is also the additional possibility of non-credible beliefs.
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Harsanyi, John C. (1968). "Games with Incomplete Information Played by "Bayesian" Players, I-III. Part II. Bayesian Equilibrium Points".
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Player 1 can make a bid p between 0 and 100 (inclusive) I Player 2 can then accept or reject the offer. The payoffs as follows:
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Harsanyi, John C. (2004). "Games with Incomplete Information Played by "Bayesian" Players, I-III: Part I. The Basic Model".
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is at one of her decision nodes in an information set, she does not know which node within the information set she is at.
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Albrecht, Stefano; Crandall, Jacob; Ramamoorthy, Subramanian (2016). "Belief and Truth in Hypothesised Behaviours".
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Ponssard, J. -P.; Sorin, S. (June 1980). "The LP formulation of finite zero-sum games with incomplete information".
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In Bayesian games, player's beliefs about the game are denoted by a probability distribution over various types.
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A Bayesian-Nash Equilibrium of a Bayesian game is a Nash equilibrium of its associated ex-ante normal form game.
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Ramtin, Amir Reza; Towsley, Don (2021). "A Game-Theoretic Approach to Self-Stabilization with Selfish Agents".
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There are three stages of Bayesian games, each describing the players' knowledge of types within the game.
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Consider two players with a zero-sum objective function. A linear program can be formed to compute BNE.
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A sheriff faces an armed suspect. Both must simultaneously decide whether to shoot the other or not.
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The definition of Bayesian games and Bayesian equilibrium has been extended to deal with collective
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If players do not have private information, the probability distribution over types is known as a
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Bacharach, M. (1999). "Interactive team reasoning: A contribution to the theory of cooperation".
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2023 20th Annual IEEE International Conference on Sensing, Communication, and Networking (SECON)
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introduced the concept of Bayesian games in three papers from 1967 and 1968: He was awarded the
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Su, Runbo; Sfar, Arbia Riahi; Natalizio, Enrico; Moyal, Pascal; Song, Ye-Qiong (2023-09-11).
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Players know their own types and those of other players. The payoffs are known to players.
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Bayesian consistency: the beliefs are consistent with the strategies under consideration;
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Kajii, A.; Morris, S. (1997). "The Robustness of Equilibria to Incomplete Information".
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Assign a payoff to a player given their type and the action profile. A payoff function,
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Information sets are denoted by dotted lines, which is the most common notation today.
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Only "lemons" (used cars in bad conditions, specifically with value at most equal to
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Player 1 can guarantee herself a payoff of zero by bidding 0, hence in equilibrium,
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is a player's choice of action at each point where the player must make a decision.
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Since only "lemons" (used cars in bad conditions) are traded, the market collapses
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for both players depends on the type of the suspect. This game is defined by
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Sequential rationality: the players choose optimally given their beliefs.
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s decision nodes that she cannot distinguish between. That is, if player
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Stochastic Bayesian games combine the definitions of Bayesian games and
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Stochastic Bayesian Games for the Cybersecurity of Nuclear Power Plants
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Grüne-Yanoff, Till; Lehtinen, Aki (2012). "Philosophy of Game Theory".
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To deal with these issues, Perfect Bayesian equilibrium, according to
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with perfect or imperfect information, have the following elements:
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Koniorczyk, Mátyás; Bodor, András; Pintér, Miklós (29 June 2020).
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A probability distribution over all possible type profiles, where
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players yet expands the number of each player i's actions from
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is a Bayesian Nash equilibrium if and only if for every player
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Player 2's strategy: Accept all bids above a certain cut-off
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keeping the strategies of every other player fixed, strategy
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Caballero, William N.; Banks, David; Wu, Keru (2022-08-08).
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Set of actions for each player at each of her decision nodes
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is reached with strictly positive probability according to
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A player function assigning a player to each decision node
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Bernhard, Julian; Pollok, Stefan; Knoll, Alois (2019).
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Maschler, Michael; Solan, Eilon; Zamir, Shmuel (2013).
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The Market for Lemons is related to a concept known as
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PhD Dissertation, University of Pittsburgh. 1691:Department of Computer Science and Automation 1638: 861:Incomplete information over collective agency 68:Normal form games with incomplete information 844: 280: 1930:. Paris, France: IEEE. pp. 2148–2155. 1420: 512:{\textstyle \sum _{i=1}^{|N|}|\Theta _{i}|} 2345: 2331: 2181:Hu, Yuhuang; Loo, Chu Kiong (2014-03-17). 1606:Shoham, Yoav; Leyton-Brown, Kevin (2008). 197:is the probability that Player 1 has type 2352: 2216: 2198: 2141: 2131: 2086: 2029: 1983:IEEE Transactions on Vehicular Technology 1977:Asheralieva, Alia; Niyato, Dusit (2021). 1935: 1906: 1828: 1610:. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. 1577:. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. 1488: 1117:. Thus, the Sheriff will always shoot if 715:For two decision nodes to be in the same 121:is a list of actions, one for each player 56:Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences 1681: 1527: 1374: 1331: 1190:, is known as a cut-off strategy, where 1128: 397:maximizes the expected payoff of player 2282: 2239: 1270: 1268: 292:if every strategy in that profile is a 150:is a list of types, one for each player 105:The set of actions available to Player 14: 3399: 2113: 1779: 733: 2326: 2303: 2180: 1274: 1033: 986: 1641:International Journal of Game Theory 1265: 1097:and a payoff of -1 with probability 877: 640:{\textstyle |A_{i}|^{|\Theta _{i}|}} 417:according to that player's beliefs. 260:Improvements over non-Bayesian games 2306:"Games with Incomplete Information" 1166:Player 2's payoff: Bid Accepted is 1159:Player 1's payoff: Bid Accepted is 1109:and a payoff of 0 with probability 24: 2394:First-player and second-player win 2286:Game Theory for Applied Economists 2276: 2246:The Quarterly Journal of Economics 2240:Akerlof, George A. (August 1970). 1753:(6): 51–3301–51-3301. 2014-01-21. 621: 495: 219: 92:The set of players within the game 25: 3423: 1088:When the type is "criminal", the 687:A payoff function for each player 2501:Coalition-proof Nash equilibrium 2064:10.1109/SECON58729.2023.10287527 974:It is assumed that the payoffs, 661:Elements of extensive form games 172:denotes the utilities of player 2233: 2174: 2150: 2038: 2017: 1970: 1915: 1900: 1853: 1806: 1773: 1738: 1697: 1675: 1632: 1599: 325:Bayesian Nash equilibrium (BNE) 231: 2511:Evolutionarily stable strategy 1866:Naval Research Logistics (NRL) 1564: 1521: 1464: 1449: 1368: 1325: 1316: 748: 723:Belong to the same player; and 631: 616: 610: 594: 572: 557: 535: 527: 505: 490: 483: 475: 437: 429: 77:A Bayesian game is defined by 13: 1: 2439:Simultaneous action selection 1907:Maccarone, Lee Tylor (2021). 1258: 1113:, i.e. an expected payoff of 1101:, i.e. an expected payoff of 700:An information set of player 3371:List of games in game theory 2551:Quantal response equilibrium 2541:Perfect Bayesian equilibrium 2476:Bayes correlated equilibrium 2187:The Scientific World Journal 1839:10.1016/j.artint.2016.02.004 1717:10.1017/cbo9780511794216.005 1292:10.1007/978-0-387-30440-3_29 1223:Enter the monopolized market 1178:Side point: cut-off strategy 816:perfect Bayesian equilibrium 810:Perfect Bayesian equilibrium 804:Perfect Bayesian equilibrium 726:Have the same set of actions 134:The set of types of players 7: 2840:Optional prisoner's dilemma 2571:Self-confirming equilibrium 1507:10.1103/PhysRevA.101.062115 1231: 1186:, and Reject and bid below 855:Bellman optimality equation 838:subgame perfect equilibrium 692:Nature and information sets 390:{\displaystyle \sigma _{i}} 72: 10: 3428: 3305:Principal variation search 3021:Aumann's agreement theorem 2684:Strategy-stealing argument 2596:Trembling hand equilibrium 2526:Markov perfect equilibrium 2521:Mertens-stable equilibrium 2058:. IEEE. pp. 195–203. 1238:Bayesian-optimal mechanism 1132: 872: 807: 3341:Combinatorial game theory 3328: 3287: 3069: 3013: 3000:Princess and monster game 2795: 2697: 2604: 2556:Quasi-perfect equilibrium 2481:Bayesian Nash equilibrium 2462: 2361: 1790:10.1007/978-3-662-46950-7 1682:Narahari, Y (July 2012). 1049: 1036: 1002: 989: 845:Stochastic Bayesian games 281:Bayesian Nash equilibrium 61:probability distributions 18:Bayesian Nash equilibrium 3412:Game theory game classes 3356:Evolutionary game theory 3089:Antoine Augustin Cournot 2975:Guess 2/3 of the average 2772:Strictly determined game 2566:Satisfaction equilibrium 2384:Escalation of commitment 2304:Levin, Jonathan (2002). 2283:Gibbons, Robert (1992). 1995:10.1109/TVT.2021.3070723 1946:10.1109/IVS.2019.8813791 1616:10.1017/cbo9780511811654 1583:10.1017/cbo9780511794216 1243:Bayesian-optimal pricing 267:law of total probability 3361:Glossary of game theory 2960:Stackelberg competition 2586:Strong Nash equilibrium 1816:Artificial Intelligence 1458:Philosophy of Economics 1194:is called the cut-off. 978:, are given as follows: 579:{\displaystyle |A_{i}|} 340:{\displaystyle \sigma } 224:In a strategic game, a 3386:Tragedy of the commons 3366:List of game theorists 3346:Confrontation analysis 3056:Sprague–Grundy theorem 2576:Sequential equilibrium 2496:Correlated equilibrium 2101:10.1006/reec.1999.0188 1759:10.5860/choice.51-3301 1705:"Strategic-form games" 1684:"Extensive Form Games" 1542:10.1287/mnsc.1040.0270 1275:Zamir, Shmuel (2009). 1217:economically efficient 944:= {Criminal, Civilian} 919:N = {Suspect, Sheriff} 888:incomplete information 704:is a subset of player 641: 580: 543: 513: 488: 445: 411: 391: 364: 341: 314: 45:incomplete information 3159:Jean-François Mertens 2089:Research in Economics 1780:Peters, Hans (2015). 1747:Choice Reviews Online 1389:10.1287/mnsc.14.7.486 1346:10.1287/mnsc.14.5.320 1135:The Market for Lemons 1129:The market for lemons 900:imperfect information 684:Set of terminal nodes 675:Set of decision nodes 642: 581: 544: 514: 458: 446: 412: 392: 365: 342: 315: 3288:Search optimizations 3164:Jennifer Tour Chayes 3051:Revelation principle 3046:Purification theorem 2985:Nash bargaining game 2950:Bertrand competition 2935:El Farol Bar problem 2900:Electronic mail game 2865:Lewis signaling game 2409:Hierarchy of beliefs 2116:"Agency equilibrium" 1248:Bayesian programming 666:Extensive form games 590: 553: 523: 455: 425: 401: 374: 351: 331: 304: 109:. An action profile 50:Hungarian economist 41:Bayesian probability 3407:Bayesian statistics 3336:Bounded rationality 2955:Cournot competition 2905:Rock paper scissors 2880:Battle of the sexes 2870:Volunteer's dilemma 2742:Perfect information 2669:Dominant strategies 2506:Epsilon-equilibrium 2389:Extensive-form game 2200:10.1155/2014/240983 2114:Newton, J. (2019). 1499:2020PhRvA.101f2115K 1163:, Bid Rejected is 0 1030: 983: 734:The role of beliefs 542:{\displaystyle |N|} 444:{\displaystyle |N|} 253:Ex-post stage game. 247:Interim stage game. 241:Ex-ante stage game. 27:Game theory concept 3315:Paranoid algorithm 3295:Alpha–beta pruning 3174:John Maynard Smith 3005:Rendezvous problem 2845:Traveler's dilemma 2835:Gift-exchange game 2830:Prisoner's dilemma 2747:Large Poisson game 2714:Bargaining problem 2619:Backward induction 2591:Subgame perfection 2546:Proper equilibrium 1653:10.1007/bf01769767 1608:Multiagent Systems 1530:Management Science 1377:Management Science 1334:Management Science 1253:Bayesian inference 1170:, Bid Rejected is 1034:Type = "Civilian" 1029: 987:Type = "Criminal" 982: 637: 576: 539: 509: 441: 407: 387: 363:{\displaystyle i,} 360: 337: 310: 154:Payoff functions, 3394: 3393: 3300:Aspiration window 3269:Suzanne Scotchmer 3224:Oskar Morgenstern 3119:Donald B. Gillies 3061:Zermelo's theorem 2990:Induction puzzles 2945:Fair cake-cutting 2920:Public goods game 2850:Coordination game 2724:Intransitive game 2654:Forward induction 2536:Pareto efficiency 2516:Gibbs equilibrium 2486:Berge equilibrium 2434:Simultaneous game 2133:10.3390/g10010014 2073:979-8-3503-0052-9 1955:978-1-7281-0560-4 1878:10.1002/nav.22071 1799:978-3-662-46949-1 1625:978-0-511-81165-4 1592:978-0-511-79421-6 1536:(12): 1804–1817. 1477:Physical Review A 1301:978-0-387-75888-6 1141:adverse selection 1090:dominant strategy 1074: 1073: 1050:Suspect's action 1037:Sheriff's action 1027: 1026: 1003:Suspect's action 990:Sheriff's action 878:Sheriff's dilemma 761:Behavior Strategy 410:{\displaystyle i} 313:{\displaystyle p} 16:(Redirected from 3419: 3381:Topological game 3376:No-win situation 3274:Thomas Schelling 3254:Robert B. Wilson 3214:Merrill M. Flood 3184:John von Neumann 3094:Ariel Rubinstein 3079:Albert W. Tucker 2930:War of attrition 2890:Matching pennies 2531:Nash equilibrium 2454:Mechanism design 2419:Normal-form game 2374:Cooperative game 2347: 2340: 2333: 2324: 2323: 2319: 2317: 2315: 2310: 2300: 2270: 2269: 2237: 2231: 2230: 2220: 2202: 2178: 2172: 2171: 2169: 2168: 2154: 2148: 2147: 2145: 2135: 2111: 2105: 2104: 2084: 2078: 2077: 2057: 2042: 2036: 2035: 2033: 2021: 2015: 2014: 1989:(5): 4924–4942. 1974: 1968: 1967: 1939: 1919: 1913: 1912: 1904: 1898: 1897: 1872:(7): 1009–1026. 1857: 1851: 1850: 1832: 1810: 1804: 1803: 1777: 1771: 1770: 1742: 1736: 1735: 1734: 1733: 1701: 1695: 1694: 1688: 1679: 1673: 1672: 1636: 1630: 1629: 1603: 1597: 1596: 1568: 1562: 1561: 1525: 1519: 1518: 1492: 1468: 1462: 1461: 1453: 1447: 1446: 1429:(6): 1283–1309. 1418: 1409: 1408: 1372: 1366: 1365: 1329: 1323: 1320: 1314: 1313: 1281: 1272: 1083:common knowledge 1031: 1028: 984: 981: 908:Normal-form game 851:stochastic games 646: 644: 643: 638: 636: 635: 634: 629: 628: 619: 613: 607: 606: 597: 585: 583: 582: 577: 575: 570: 569: 560: 548: 546: 545: 540: 538: 530: 518: 516: 515: 510: 508: 503: 502: 493: 487: 486: 478: 472: 450: 448: 447: 442: 440: 432: 416: 414: 413: 408: 396: 394: 393: 388: 386: 385: 369: 367: 366: 361: 346: 344: 343: 338: 319: 317: 316: 311: 290:Nash equilibrium 86:Set of players, 52:John C. Harsanyi 21: 3427: 3426: 3422: 3421: 3420: 3418: 3417: 3416: 3397: 3396: 3395: 3390: 3324: 3310:max^n algorithm 3283: 3279:William Vickrey 3239:Reinhard Selten 3194:Kenneth Binmore 3109:David K. Levine 3104:Daniel Kahneman 3071: 3065: 3041:Negamax theorem 3031:Minimax theorem 3009: 2970:Diner's dilemma 2825:All-pay auction 2791: 2777:Stochastic game 2729:Mean-field game 2700: 2693: 2664:Markov strategy 2600: 2466: 2458: 2429:Sequential game 2414:Information set 2399:Game complexity 2369:Congestion game 2357: 2351: 2313: 2311: 2308: 2297: 2279: 2277:Further reading 2274: 2273: 2258:10.2307/1879431 2238: 2234: 2179: 2175: 2166: 2164: 2156: 2155: 2151: 2112: 2108: 2085: 2081: 2074: 2055: 2043: 2039: 2022: 2018: 1975: 1971: 1956: 1920: 1916: 1905: 1901: 1858: 1854: 1811: 1807: 1800: 1778: 1774: 1744: 1743: 1739: 1731: 1729: 1727: 1703: 1702: 1698: 1686: 1680: 1676: 1637: 1633: 1626: 1604: 1600: 1593: 1569: 1565: 1526: 1522: 1469: 1465: 1454: 1450: 1435:10.2307/2171737 1419: 1412: 1373: 1369: 1330: 1326: 1321: 1317: 1302: 1286:. p. 426. 1279: 1273: 1266: 1261: 1234: 1225: 1137: 1131: 969: 961: 951: 943: 935: 927: 880: 875: 863: 847: 812: 806: 798: 791: 783: 751: 736: 717:information set 694: 663: 658: 630: 624: 620: 615: 614: 609: 608: 602: 598: 593: 591: 588: 587: 571: 565: 561: 556: 554: 551: 550: 534: 526: 524: 521: 520: 504: 498: 494: 489: 482: 474: 473: 462: 456: 453: 452: 436: 428: 426: 423: 422: 402: 399: 398: 381: 377: 375: 372: 371: 352: 349: 348: 332: 329: 328: 305: 302: 301: 283: 262: 234: 222: 220:Pure strategies 213: 202: 194: 190: 169: 165: 147: 143: 130: 118: 114: 101: 75: 70: 28: 23: 22: 15: 12: 11: 5: 3425: 3415: 3414: 3409: 3392: 3391: 3389: 3388: 3383: 3378: 3373: 3368: 3363: 3358: 3353: 3348: 3343: 3338: 3332: 3330: 3326: 3325: 3323: 3322: 3317: 3312: 3307: 3302: 3297: 3291: 3289: 3285: 3284: 3282: 3281: 3276: 3271: 3266: 3261: 3256: 3251: 3246: 3244:Robert Axelrod 3241: 3236: 3231: 3226: 3221: 3219:Olga Bondareva 3216: 3211: 3209:Melvin Dresher 3206: 3201: 3199:Leonid Hurwicz 3196: 3191: 3186: 3181: 3176: 3171: 3166: 3161: 3156: 3151: 3146: 3141: 3136: 3134:Harold W. Kuhn 3131: 3126: 3124:Drew Fudenberg 3121: 3116: 3114:David M. Kreps 3111: 3106: 3101: 3099:Claude Shannon 3096: 3091: 3086: 3081: 3075: 3073: 3067: 3066: 3064: 3063: 3058: 3053: 3048: 3043: 3038: 3036:Nash's theorem 3033: 3028: 3023: 3017: 3015: 3011: 3010: 3008: 3007: 3002: 2997: 2992: 2987: 2982: 2977: 2972: 2967: 2962: 2957: 2952: 2947: 2942: 2937: 2932: 2927: 2922: 2917: 2912: 2907: 2902: 2897: 2895:Ultimatum game 2892: 2887: 2882: 2877: 2875:Dollar auction 2872: 2867: 2862: 2860:Centipede game 2857: 2852: 2847: 2842: 2837: 2832: 2827: 2822: 2817: 2815:Infinite chess 2812: 2807: 2801: 2799: 2793: 2792: 2790: 2789: 2784: 2782:Symmetric game 2779: 2774: 2769: 2767:Signaling game 2764: 2762:Screening game 2759: 2754: 2752:Potential game 2749: 2744: 2739: 2731: 2726: 2721: 2716: 2711: 2705: 2703: 2695: 2694: 2692: 2691: 2686: 2681: 2679:Mixed strategy 2676: 2671: 2666: 2661: 2656: 2651: 2646: 2641: 2636: 2631: 2626: 2621: 2616: 2610: 2608: 2602: 2601: 2599: 2598: 2593: 2588: 2583: 2578: 2573: 2568: 2563: 2561:Risk dominance 2558: 2553: 2548: 2543: 2538: 2533: 2528: 2523: 2518: 2513: 2508: 2503: 2498: 2493: 2488: 2483: 2478: 2472: 2470: 2460: 2459: 2457: 2456: 2451: 2446: 2441: 2436: 2431: 2426: 2421: 2416: 2411: 2406: 2404:Graphical game 2401: 2396: 2391: 2386: 2381: 2376: 2371: 2365: 2363: 2359: 2358: 2350: 2349: 2342: 2335: 2327: 2321: 2320: 2301: 2295: 2278: 2275: 2272: 2271: 2252:(3): 488–500. 2232: 2173: 2149: 2106: 2079: 2072: 2037: 2016: 1969: 1954: 1914: 1899: 1852: 1805: 1798: 1772: 1737: 1725: 1696: 1674: 1631: 1624: 1598: 1591: 1563: 1520: 1463: 1448: 1410: 1383:(7): 486–502. 1367: 1340:(5): 320–334. 1324: 1315: 1300: 1263: 1262: 1260: 1257: 1256: 1255: 1250: 1245: 1240: 1233: 1230: 1224: 1221: 1220: 1219: 1213: 1210: 1203: 1175: 1174: 1164: 1133:Main article: 1130: 1127: 1072: 1071: 1068: 1065: 1061: 1060: 1057: 1054: 1051: 1047: 1046: 1043: 1039: 1038: 1035: 1025: 1024: 1021: 1018: 1014: 1013: 1010: 1007: 1004: 1000: 999: 996: 992: 991: 988: 980: 979: 972: 967: 959: 955: 949: 941: 938: 936:= {Shoot, Not} 933: 928:= {Shoot, Not} 925: 921: 879: 876: 874: 871: 862: 859: 846: 843: 827: 826: 823: 808:Main article: 805: 802: 796: 789: 781: 770:An assessment 768: 767: 764: 750: 747: 735: 732: 728: 727: 724: 693: 690: 689: 688: 685: 682: 679: 676: 673: 672:Set of players 662: 659: 657: 654: 653: 652: 633: 627: 623: 618: 612: 605: 601: 596: 574: 568: 564: 559: 537: 533: 529: 507: 501: 497: 492: 485: 481: 477: 471: 468: 465: 461: 439: 435: 431: 406: 384: 380: 359: 356: 336: 309: 282: 279: 261: 258: 257: 256: 250: 244: 233: 230: 221: 218: 217: 216: 211: 200: 192: 188: 176: 167: 163: 151: 145: 141: 128: 122: 116: 112: 99: 93: 74: 71: 69: 66: 64:this article. 26: 9: 6: 4: 3: 2: 3424: 3413: 3410: 3408: 3405: 3404: 3402: 3387: 3384: 3382: 3379: 3377: 3374: 3372: 3369: 3367: 3364: 3362: 3359: 3357: 3354: 3352: 3349: 3347: 3344: 3342: 3339: 3337: 3334: 3333: 3331: 3329:Miscellaneous 3327: 3321: 3318: 3316: 3313: 3311: 3308: 3306: 3303: 3301: 3298: 3296: 3293: 3292: 3290: 3286: 3280: 3277: 3275: 3272: 3270: 3267: 3265: 3264:Samuel Bowles 3262: 3260: 3259:Roger Myerson 3257: 3255: 3252: 3250: 3249:Robert Aumann 3247: 3245: 3242: 3240: 3237: 3235: 3232: 3230: 3227: 3225: 3222: 3220: 3217: 3215: 3212: 3210: 3207: 3205: 3204:Lloyd Shapley 3202: 3200: 3197: 3195: 3192: 3190: 3189:Kenneth Arrow 3187: 3185: 3182: 3180: 3177: 3175: 3172: 3170: 3169:John Harsanyi 3167: 3165: 3162: 3160: 3157: 3155: 3152: 3150: 3147: 3145: 3142: 3140: 3139:Herbert Simon 3137: 3135: 3132: 3130: 3127: 3125: 3122: 3120: 3117: 3115: 3112: 3110: 3107: 3105: 3102: 3100: 3097: 3095: 3092: 3090: 3087: 3085: 3082: 3080: 3077: 3076: 3074: 3068: 3062: 3059: 3057: 3054: 3052: 3049: 3047: 3044: 3042: 3039: 3037: 3034: 3032: 3029: 3027: 3024: 3022: 3019: 3018: 3016: 3012: 3006: 3003: 3001: 2998: 2996: 2993: 2991: 2988: 2986: 2983: 2981: 2978: 2976: 2973: 2971: 2968: 2966: 2963: 2961: 2958: 2956: 2953: 2951: 2948: 2946: 2943: 2941: 2940:Fair division 2938: 2936: 2933: 2931: 2928: 2926: 2923: 2921: 2918: 2916: 2915:Dictator game 2913: 2911: 2908: 2906: 2903: 2901: 2898: 2896: 2893: 2891: 2888: 2886: 2883: 2881: 2878: 2876: 2873: 2871: 2868: 2866: 2863: 2861: 2858: 2856: 2853: 2851: 2848: 2846: 2843: 2841: 2838: 2836: 2833: 2831: 2828: 2826: 2823: 2821: 2818: 2816: 2813: 2811: 2808: 2806: 2803: 2802: 2800: 2798: 2794: 2788: 2787:Zero-sum game 2785: 2783: 2780: 2778: 2775: 2773: 2770: 2768: 2765: 2763: 2760: 2758: 2757:Repeated game 2755: 2753: 2750: 2748: 2745: 2743: 2740: 2738: 2736: 2732: 2730: 2727: 2725: 2722: 2720: 2717: 2715: 2712: 2710: 2707: 2706: 2704: 2702: 2696: 2690: 2687: 2685: 2682: 2680: 2677: 2675: 2674:Pure strategy 2672: 2670: 2667: 2665: 2662: 2660: 2657: 2655: 2652: 2650: 2647: 2645: 2642: 2640: 2639:De-escalation 2637: 2635: 2632: 2630: 2627: 2625: 2622: 2620: 2617: 2615: 2612: 2611: 2609: 2607: 2603: 2597: 2594: 2592: 2589: 2587: 2584: 2582: 2581:Shapley value 2579: 2577: 2574: 2572: 2569: 2567: 2564: 2562: 2559: 2557: 2554: 2552: 2549: 2547: 2544: 2542: 2539: 2537: 2534: 2532: 2529: 2527: 2524: 2522: 2519: 2517: 2514: 2512: 2509: 2507: 2504: 2502: 2499: 2497: 2494: 2492: 2489: 2487: 2484: 2482: 2479: 2477: 2474: 2473: 2471: 2469: 2465: 2461: 2455: 2452: 2450: 2449:Succinct game 2447: 2445: 2442: 2440: 2437: 2435: 2432: 2430: 2427: 2425: 2422: 2420: 2417: 2415: 2412: 2410: 2407: 2405: 2402: 2400: 2397: 2395: 2392: 2390: 2387: 2385: 2382: 2380: 2377: 2375: 2372: 2370: 2367: 2366: 2364: 2360: 2356: 2348: 2343: 2341: 2336: 2334: 2329: 2328: 2325: 2307: 2302: 2298: 2292: 2288: 2287: 2281: 2280: 2267: 2263: 2259: 2255: 2251: 2247: 2243: 2236: 2228: 2224: 2219: 2214: 2210: 2206: 2201: 2196: 2192: 2188: 2184: 2177: 2163: 2159: 2153: 2144: 2139: 2134: 2129: 2125: 2121: 2117: 2110: 2102: 2098: 2095:(2): 117–47. 2094: 2090: 2083: 2075: 2069: 2065: 2061: 2054: 2053: 2048: 2041: 2032: 2027: 2020: 2012: 2008: 2004: 2000: 1996: 1992: 1988: 1984: 1980: 1973: 1965: 1961: 1957: 1951: 1947: 1943: 1938: 1933: 1929: 1925: 1918: 1910: 1903: 1895: 1891: 1887: 1883: 1879: 1875: 1871: 1867: 1863: 1856: 1848: 1844: 1840: 1836: 1831: 1826: 1822: 1818: 1817: 1809: 1801: 1795: 1791: 1787: 1783: 1776: 1768: 1764: 1760: 1756: 1752: 1748: 1741: 1728: 1726:9780511794216 1722: 1718: 1714: 1710: 1706: 1700: 1692: 1685: 1678: 1670: 1666: 1662: 1658: 1654: 1650: 1647:(2): 99–105. 1646: 1642: 1635: 1627: 1621: 1617: 1613: 1609: 1602: 1594: 1588: 1584: 1580: 1576: 1575: 1567: 1559: 1555: 1551: 1547: 1543: 1539: 1535: 1531: 1524: 1516: 1512: 1508: 1504: 1500: 1496: 1491: 1486: 1482: 1478: 1474: 1467: 1459: 1452: 1444: 1440: 1436: 1432: 1428: 1424: 1417: 1415: 1406: 1402: 1398: 1394: 1390: 1386: 1382: 1378: 1371: 1363: 1359: 1355: 1351: 1347: 1343: 1339: 1335: 1328: 1319: 1311: 1307: 1303: 1297: 1293: 1289: 1285: 1278: 1271: 1269: 1264: 1254: 1251: 1249: 1246: 1244: 1241: 1239: 1236: 1235: 1229: 1218: 1214: 1211: 1208: 1204: 1201: 1197: 1196: 1195: 1193: 1189: 1185: 1180: 1179: 1173: 1169: 1165: 1162: 1158: 1157: 1156: 1153: 1149: 1148: 1144: 1142: 1136: 1126: 1124: 1120: 1116: 1112: 1108: 1104: 1100: 1096: 1091: 1086: 1084: 1080: 1069: 1066: 1063: 1062: 1058: 1055: 1052: 1048: 1044: 1041: 1040: 1032: 1022: 1019: 1016: 1015: 1011: 1008: 1005: 1001: 997: 994: 993: 985: 977: 973: 971: 963: 956: 954: 947: 939: 937: 929: 922: 920: 917: 916: 915: 913: 909: 903: 901: 897: 893: 889: 883: 870: 868: 858: 856: 852: 842: 839: 834: 832: 824: 821: 820: 819: 817: 811: 801: 799: 792: 785: 784:) = Pr / Σ Pr 777: 773: 766:Belief system 765: 762: 759: 758: 757: 756: 746: 744: 739: 731: 725: 722: 721: 720: 718: 713: 711: 707: 703: 698: 686: 683: 680: 677: 674: 671: 670: 669: 667: 650: 649: 648: 625: 603: 599: 566: 562: 531: 499: 479: 469: 466: 463: 459: 433: 418: 404: 382: 378: 357: 354: 334: 326: 321: 307: 297: 295: 294:best response 291: 286: 278: 276: 272: 268: 254: 251: 248: 245: 242: 239: 238: 237: 229: 227: 226:pure strategy 214: 207: 203: 196: 184: 182: 177: 175: 171: 159: 157: 152: 149: 137: 133: 131: 123: 120: 108: 104: 102: 96:Action sets, 94: 91: 89: 84: 83: 82: 80: 65: 62: 57: 53: 48: 46: 42: 37: 36:Bayesian game 33: 19: 3234:Peyton Young 3229:Paul Milgrom 3144:Hervé Moulin 3084:Amos Tversky 3026:Folk theorem 2737:-player game 2734: 2659:Grim trigger 2312:. Retrieved 2285: 2249: 2245: 2235: 2190: 2186: 2176: 2165:. Retrieved 2161: 2152: 2143:10419/219237 2123: 2119: 2109: 2092: 2088: 2082: 2051: 2040: 2019: 1986: 1982: 1972: 1927: 1917: 1908: 1902: 1869: 1865: 1855: 1820: 1814: 1808: 1781: 1775: 1750: 1746: 1740: 1730:, retrieved 1708: 1699: 1690: 1677: 1644: 1640: 1634: 1607: 1601: 1573: 1566: 1533: 1529: 1523: 1480: 1476: 1466: 1457: 1451: 1426: 1423:Econometrica 1422: 1380: 1376: 1370: 1337: 1333: 1327: 1318: 1283: 1226: 1206: 1202:) are traded 1199: 1191: 1187: 1183: 1181: 1177: 1176: 1171: 1167: 1160: 1154: 1150: 1146: 1145: 1138: 1122: 1121:, i.e. when 1119:p-1 > -2p 1118: 1114: 1110: 1106: 1102: 1098: 1094: 1087: 1079:ad infinitum 1078: 1075: 975: 965: 957: 953: 945: 931: 923: 918: 911: 904: 895: 891: 884: 881: 864: 848: 835: 831:non-credible 828: 813: 794: 787: 779: 772:<b, μ> 771: 769: 763:profile; and 755:<b, μ> 754: 752: 743:common prior 742: 740: 737: 729: 719:, they must 714: 709: 705: 701: 699: 695: 664: 419: 324: 322: 298: 287: 284: 277:to compute. 271:ad infinitum 270: 263: 252: 246: 240: 235: 232:Three stages 225: 223: 209: 205: 198: 186: 180: 178: 173: 161: 155: 153: 139: 135: 126: 124: 110: 106: 97: 95: 87: 85: 78: 76: 49: 35: 29: 3351:Coopetition 3154:Jean Tirole 3149:John Conway 3129:Eric Maskin 2925:Blotto game 2910:Pirate game 2719:Global game 2689:Tit for tat 2624:Bid shading 2614:Appeasement 2464:Equilibrium 2444:Solved game 2379:Determinacy 2362:Definitions 2355:game theory 1782:Game Theory 1709:Game Theory 1574:Game Theory 912:(N,A,T,p,u) 776:Bayes' rule 749:Bayes' rule 204:and Player 166:, . . . , u 144:, . . . , t 125:Type sets, 115:, . . . , a 79:(N,A,T,p,u) 32:game theory 3401:Categories 2995:Trust game 2980:Kuhn poker 2649:Escalation 2644:Deterrence 2634:Cheap talk 2606:Strategies 2424:Preference 2353:Topics of 2296:1400835887 2193:: 240983. 2167:2016-06-16 2158:"Coursera" 2031:2108.07362 1937:2102.03119 1830:1507.07688 1732:2023-04-23 1490:2005.12727 1483:(6): 2–3. 1259:References 1123:p > 1/3 774:satisfies 275:irrational 191:, . . . ,t 187:p(t) = p(t 3179:John Nash 2885:Stag hunt 2629:Collusion 2314:25 August 2209:1537-744X 2126:(1): 14. 2011:234331661 2003:0018-9545 1964:201811314 1894:251461541 1886:0894-069X 1823:: 63–94. 1767:0009-4978 1669:120632621 1661:0020-7276 1550:0025-1909 1515:218889282 1397:0025-1909 1354:0025-1909 970:= (1 - p) 914:, where: 786:whenever 622:Θ 496:Θ 460:∑ 379:σ 335:σ 208:has type 3320:Lazy SMP 3014:Theorems 2965:Deadlock 2820:Checkers 2701:of games 2468:concepts 2227:24778580 2162:Coursera 1558:30046151 1310:14218591 1232:See also 968:Civilian 960:Criminal 73:Elements 3072:figures 2855:Chicken 2709:Auction 2699:Classes 2266:1879431 2218:3977121 1847:2599762 1495:Bibcode 1443:2171737 1405:2628894 1362:2628673 1067:-2, -1 1059:-1, -2 1056:-3, -1 1020:-2, -1 950:Sheriff 942:Suspect 934:Sheriff 926:Suspect 873:Example 179:Prior, 2293:  2264:  2225:  2215:  2207:  2070:  2009:  2001:  1962:  1952:  1892:  1884:  1845:  1796:  1765:  1723:  1667:  1659:  1622:  1589:  1556:  1548:  1513:  1460:: 532. 1441:  1403:  1395:  1360:  1352:  1308:  1298:  1161:3/2v-p 1147:Set up 1053:Shoot 1042:Shoot 1012:2, -2 1006:Shoot 995:Shoot 867:agency 140:t = (t 111:a = (a 2810:Chess 2797:Games 2309:(PDF) 2262:JSTOR 2120:Games 2056:(PDF) 2026:arXiv 2007:S2CID 1960:S2CID 1932:arXiv 1890:S2CID 1843:S2CID 1825:arXiv 1687:(PDF) 1665:S2CID 1554:JSTOR 1511:S2CID 1485:arXiv 1439:JSTOR 1401:JSTOR 1358:JSTOR 1306:S2CID 1280:(PDF) 1070:0, 0 1023:-1,1 1009:0, 0 952:= {*} 780:μ(x|h 162:u= (u 2491:Core 2316:2016 2291:ISBN 2223:PMID 2205:ISSN 2191:2014 2068:ISBN 1999:ISSN 1950:ISBN 1882:ISSN 1794:ISBN 1763:ISSN 1721:ISBN 1693:: 1. 1657:ISSN 1620:ISBN 1587:ISBN 1546:ISSN 1393:ISSN 1350:ISSN 1296:ISBN 1064:Not 1045:Not 1017:Not 998:Not 34:, a 3070:Key 2254:doi 2213:PMC 2195:doi 2138:hdl 2128:doi 2097:doi 2060:doi 1991:doi 1942:doi 1874:doi 1835:doi 1821:235 1786:doi 1755:doi 1713:doi 1649:doi 1612:doi 1579:doi 1538:doi 1503:doi 1431:doi 1385:doi 1342:doi 1288:doi 1209:= 0 1115:-2p 1111:1-p 1103:p-1 1099:1-p 962:= p 902:). 896:1-p 778:if 586:to 451:to 30:In 3403:: 2805:Go 2260:. 2250:84 2248:. 2244:. 2221:. 2211:. 2203:. 2189:. 2185:. 2160:. 2136:. 2124:10 2122:. 2118:. 2093:53 2091:. 2066:. 2049:. 2005:. 1997:. 1987:70 1985:. 1981:. 1958:. 1948:. 1940:. 1926:. 1888:. 1880:. 1870:69 1868:. 1864:. 1841:. 1833:. 1819:. 1792:. 1761:. 1751:51 1749:. 1719:, 1707:, 1689:. 1663:. 1655:. 1643:. 1618:. 1585:. 1552:. 1544:. 1534:50 1532:. 1509:. 1501:. 1493:. 1479:. 1475:. 1437:. 1427:65 1425:. 1413:^ 1399:. 1391:. 1381:14 1379:. 1356:. 1348:. 1338:14 1336:. 1304:. 1294:. 1282:. 1267:^ 1192:P* 1188:P* 1184:P* 1143:. 1125:. 1081:– 964:, 946:, 930:, 814:A 800:. 797:−i 745:. 706:i' 323:A 47:. 2735:n 2346:e 2339:t 2332:v 2318:. 2299:. 2268:. 2256:: 2229:. 2197:: 2170:. 2146:. 2140:: 2130:: 2103:. 2099:: 2076:. 2062:: 2034:. 2028:: 2013:. 1993:: 1966:. 1944:: 1934:: 1896:. 1876:: 1849:. 1837:: 1827:: 1802:. 1788:: 1769:. 1757:: 1715:: 1671:. 1651:: 1645:9 1628:. 1614:: 1595:. 1581:: 1560:. 1540:: 1517:. 1505:: 1497:: 1487:: 1481:1 1445:. 1433:: 1407:. 1387:: 1364:. 1344:: 1312:. 1290:: 1207:p 1200:p 1172:v 1168:p 1107:p 1095:p 976:u 966:p 958:p 948:T 940:T 932:A 924:A 892:p 795:b 790:i 788:h 782:i 710:i 702:i 632:| 626:i 617:| 611:| 604:i 600:A 595:| 573:| 567:i 563:A 558:| 536:| 532:N 528:| 506:| 500:i 491:| 484:| 480:N 476:| 470:1 467:= 464:i 438:| 434:N 430:| 405:i 383:i 358:, 355:i 308:p 215:. 212:N 210:t 206:N 201:1 199:t 195:) 193:N 189:1 183:: 181:p 174:i 170:) 168:N 164:1 158:: 156:u 148:) 146:N 142:1 136:i 132:: 129:i 127:t 119:) 117:N 113:1 107:i 103:: 100:i 98:a 90:: 88:N 20:)

Index

Bayesian Nash equilibrium
game theory
Bayesian probability
incomplete information
John C. Harsanyi
Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences
probability distributions
law of total probability
irrational
Nash equilibrium
best response
Extensive form games
information set
Behavior Strategy
Bayes' rule
Perfect Bayesian equilibrium
perfect Bayesian equilibrium
non-credible
subgame perfect equilibrium
stochastic games
Bellman optimality equation
agency
incomplete information
imperfect information
Normal-form game
common knowledge
dominant strategy
The Market for Lemons
adverse selection
economically efficient

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